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WTI Oil Weakens Moderate, Ready to Record Increase In 10 Week

Friday, May 22, 2015

Oil prices moved down on Friday after rising more than 2 percent in the previous session, boosted by low US crude inventories and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

US crude futures were on track for the longest streak of gains since records began in 1983, helped by a decrease in the number of products and crude oil reserves last week, reflecting better demand in the countries with the largest consumption rate in the world.

West Texas Intermediate oil for July move the range of $ 60.61 per barrel at 16.00 pm, a decrease of 11 cents on the day and get ready to record gains for the week to 10.

Meanwhile Brent oil in July fell 17 cents to $ 66.37 a barrel after closing up 2.3% on Thursday.

Analysts at ANZ said that the data on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration showed a large decline in US oil product reserves, indicating strong demand from end users.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

The Bank of Japan Keep Monetary Policy

Friday, May 22, 2015

According to many estimates of the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy meeting today, besides the Japanese central bank also raised its outlook for the Japanese economy. Tersbeut meeting results confirm moderate growth in the Japanese economy, but inflation is still expected to near 0% in the short term due to falling energy prices.

Eight of the nine members of the board decided to maintain the monetary base amounted to ¥ 80 trillion, while one member, Takahide Kiuchi, again asked reducing the asset purchase program per year to ¥ 45 trillion. Kiuchi believes monetary base amounted to ¥ 80 trillion per year that can ultimately jeopardize the Japanese economy.

The BOJ raised its forecast for consumer spending, and investment properties, but lowered its forecast public investment remains. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the next is scheduled to hold a press conference.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Thin Italian Industrial Orders Down in March

Friday, May 22, 2015

The number of Italian industrial orders fell slightly in March, as demand from abroad contracted while domestic demand is still stable.

Total industrial orders contracted by 0.3% at the monthly level, reversing the positive trend seen in February, the statistics bureau Istat reported on Friday, which uses the data seasonally adjusted.

The number of orders from abroad fell 0.5% from February, while domestic demand has not changed.

The number of orders 2.7% higher at an annual rate in some things that are not adjusted, Istat added.

Industrial sales rose 1.3% at the monthly level in season adjusted, with an increase of 1.9% in demand from abroad, Istat said.

Based on the report from Istat, sales rose 0.9% at an annual rate in the adjustment of the working day, led by a rise of 4.5% in overseas demand.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French Businessman Confidence level Level Up To 4-Year High

Friday, May 22, 2015

French confidence level in the manufacturing sector rose in May to its highest level in almost four years as leaders of the businessmen revised upwards their assessment of recent output.

The level of confidence in the manufacturing sector rose further above its long term average of 100 to reach the level of 103 in May, the highest level since August 2011, it was reported by the statistics bureau Insee on Friday. The April figure was revised to 102 from the previous 101.

Size widely from business confidence, which includes wholesale, retail and construction services, also rose. The combination of these indicators rose to 97 from 96 in April, said Insee.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Business confidence in Germany weakened in May

Friday, May 22, 2015

For the first time in seven months, the data that measures the German Ifo business confidence weakened businesses during the period of May 2015. Many companies are revising down its business targets for the European economy is weak.

German Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 108.6 (April) to 108.5 or the first decline since October 2014. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal earlier this report predicts drop to 108.4.

Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn, arguing that the German economy is moving in the manufacturing sector despite lowering its export targets in May. The Ifo index of solid growth this year, but did begin there are signs that momentum began to fade. Activity in the services sector even touched the lowest level in the last 5 years in May as prices soared sharply in the consumer sector. The ZEW indicator of economic expectations also fell to its lowest since December 2014 in May.

Ifo survey results come out every month, in which the figure obtained from interviews with about 7,000 directors of companies engaged in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail. The main question is about the business expectations for the next 6 months following an assessment of the current situation

Stronger oil prices, US Reserves Decline Still Respond

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Oil prices rose moderately on Thursday, supported by the decline in US crude reserves despite restrained by weak Chinese data and worries about oversupply still limiting the increase in prices.

Crude oil prices rose overnight after government data showed US crude inventories last week fell for a third straight week, but at the beginning of the Asian session had weakened due to weak Chinese data.

China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month in May, hitting a 13-month low, prompting talk of a bigger stimulus, despite earlier assurances from the Prime Minister of China that the country with the second largest economy can mencapau 7% growth target this year ,

Brent crude oil prices in July fell to its lowest level at $ 64.83 a barrel on Thursday, but then recovered to a level of $ 65.82 a barrel at 16:33 GMT, up 80 cents from its closing price yesterday. Meanwhile US crude oil delivery in July fell to $ 58.69 per barrel before climbing to $ 59.68 per barrel, up 70 cents.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China Manufacturing activity is still shrinks

Thursday, May 21, 2015

HSBC's China manufacturing activity still showed contraction version this month. Despite showing modest improvement, but the manufacturing activity index has been below 50 in three consecutive months.

HSCB reported index of manufacturing activity in May it gained 49.1, up from 48.9 in April, but is still lower than economists' estimates of 49.4. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while above 50 indicates expansion.

Details of the report showed a sub-index of new export orders fell to 46.8, the lowest level in 23 months. For output, contracted for the first time this year, and fell to a 13 month high of 48.4, while the employment sub-index showed manufacturing firms cut jobs in 19 months in a row.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro zone recovery Suspended Over Germany Losing Momentum

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Economic growth in the Euro area fell for a second month in May as growth in Germany, the country with the largest economy in the region, is losing momentum.

Markit Economics on Thursday said that the composite index of the service sector and manufacturing in the eurozone slipped to 53.4 from 53.9 in April and 54 in March. While levels above 50 marks the difference in expansion from contraction, the results of the data is below the expected reading of 53.9 economists in a Bloomberg survey. German index fell to 52.8 from 54.1.

Growth in the Euro area rose to 0.4% in the first quarter, and Markit said that their survey indicate the same rate that would be achieved in the current three-month period. However, with global demand showed signs of faltering as China's manufacturing is still sluggish, recovery in Europe is not yet fully guaranteed although the benefit of central bank stimulus and the weakening euro.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said that the recovery in the euro zone lost some strength in May. At this time the slowdown is not the main concern, but no doubt because it can cause nail biting as ECB policy makers are still waiting for signs that quantitative easing is a panacea needs in this area.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Economy Losing Momentum, Manufacturing And Services Sector Weakens

Thursday, May 21, 2015

The German economy returned faltered this month, with the output index fell a larger-than-expected economy to the lowest level this year.

Markit Economics said the composite index of manufacturing and service sectors fell to 52.8 from 54.1 in April. At the moment it is still above the 50 level that marks the expansion of contraction, this is the second consecutive decline and were lower than the reading level at 53.8 forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Germany's economic growth eased to 0.3% in the first quarter, returned restrained by a decrease of the trade, and the Markit report showed that manufacturing for export bookings rise recorded only "marginal" this month. At the same time, the rebound in oil prices and the weakening of the euro has helped to raise the price of the input to the highest level in more than 2 1/2 years.

Kolodseike Oliver, senior economist at Markit said that it seems the level of German expansion will remain sluggish in the coming months. The companies reported weaker expansion in the weak demand, economic uncertainty and rising price pressures.

German manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in three months at 51.4 this month from 52.1 in April. The services index slipped to 52.9 from 54.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Retail Sales Rise 1.2% in April

Thursday, May 21, 2015

UK retail sales rose more than economists forecast in April as the warm weather helped boost demand for clothing to its highest level in four years.

The volume of sales including fuel rose 1.2% from March, it was reported by the national statistics bureau in London on Thursday. Economists had predicted to rise 0.4%, according to a Bloomberg survey. Sales of clothing and footwear rose by 5.2%, this is the largest increase since April 2011, as the weather was warmer than average encourage consumers to shop in the summer.

At the quarterly level until April, retail sales rose 0.7% from the previous three-month period. They are now up to 26 consecutive quarters, this is the longest period of sustained growth since records began starting in 1996.

In a report from the UK statistics bureau show that, from a year ago, retail sales rose 4.7% in April, excluding fuel vehicles, sales rose 1.2% at the monthly level, topping forecasts for a 0.2% rise.

EIA report Failed Boosting Oil Prices

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Crude oil prices trim gains on Wednesday despite official government data showed US inventories fell more than analysts forecast. However, this decline was not as much as that reported an industry bodies the day before.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday said US crude stocks fell 2.7 million barrels in the week ending May 15, the 3rd weekly decline in a row, as refineries increase output. Which brings the US strategic oil reserves to 482.2 million barrel range. Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel also reported down respectively 2.8 million barrels and 500,000 barrels.

While the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels last week along.

Currently Crude oil for July delivery is offered in the range of $ 58.70 per barrel, or approximately 0.95% over the closing price yesterday, after touching intraday highs at $ 58.89 per barrel

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japan Economic Growth Higher than Expectations

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Japan's economic growth in the first quarter is higher than expected, helped by rising consumer spending and capital expenditures businessmen. Data released by the Cabinet Office showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.6% first quarter from the previous quarter were up 0.4%. Percentage increase in the first quarter was higher than economists forecast of 0.4% while compared to the first quarter of 2014, GDP grew 2.4%, much higher than the increase of 1.1% in the previous quarter.

Consumer spending rose 0.4% higher than the estimate of 0.2%. The increase is a sign of the recovery of the sector, which last year hit by the increase in sales tax. Consumer spending sector is also a sector that has long wanted raised by the Japanese government. While capital spending rose 0.4%, the increase is the first in the last four quarters.

The report supports the projection of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan is called the Japanese economy is on a recovery path. The BOJ will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and will end on Friday.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BOE officials Agreed Weakening Economy Seen Fading In the year

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

The Bank of England policy makers said that the relaxation in the economy may be eroded completely within one year, sinyalkan that the great potential inflationary pressures in the future that will require policy tightening.

In the minutes of the policy meeting in May, the Monetary Policy Committee said that while there is no uncertainty about the estimate of spare capacity, the collective view of the best panel is sagging rate of about 0.5% of GDP and "likely to be completely absorbed in this year."

The comments echoed the view of the MPC inflation report last week that the possibility of the next policy will Raise the benchmark interest rate, which has been at a record low of 0.5% for more than six years. With inflation below zero, there is no direct pressure to the BOE to start tightening policy at this time, and the market did not assess for an increase until mid 2016. Voting MPC produces sound 9-0 to keep interest rates unchanged, even though for two members give the decision that "this time is quite balanced to Raise interest rates."

BOE in the minutes released on Wednesday said that at the moment there are various views on the possibility of higher interest rates in the future, all members agreed that it was more likely than not that interest rates will rise over the forecast period of three years.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Nowotny: Low Interest Rate Likely Long Lasting

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

European central bank policies that provide liquidity has shown its first signs of success, but they are not enough to begin to reverse the current monetary policy, ECB Governing Council member said on Tuesday night.

Ewald Nowotny, at the time at the annual awards ceremony of the Vienna Stock Exchange said that we would have to estimate a longer phase of low interest rates.

At the time the US economy has been growing quite well, the Euro zone economy has lagged significantly, said Nowotny. He added that the European economic bloc EBC is not yet ready to return to a more normal monetary policy.

Low interest rates will not last forever and must be seen as an extraordinary situasu, said Nowotny. However, the danger would be if the Eurozone kept in a state of deflation.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Producer Price Stronger Thin in April

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Prices of goods coming out of the factory in Germany rose for the third consecutive month in April, though only up slightly, due to rising prices for motor fuel and heating oil. However, producer prices are still down sharply to an annual rate.

Federal statistics bureau, Destatis, on Wednesday said that producer prices in April rose 0.1% from March, but down 1.5% from April 2014. The economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal previously expected to rise 0.2% at the monthly level and dropped 1.4% at an annual rate.

Factory price does not translate directly into a price that would be paid by the consumer.

Energy prices continue to push producer prices in April, Destatis said. Outside of energy prices, which can be volatile, producer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly level, but down 0.3% at an annual rate.

Oil prices rebound eroded Greenback

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Strengthening of the US Dollar remove investor interest in WTI crude oil, which fluctuates throughout the session to weigh increasing tensions in the Middle East and export reports that Saudi Arabian crude oil hit a record in March. Crude oil had gained when reviewing the increasing tensions in Iraq and Yemen are predicted to inhibit the buildup of global crude oil supplies.

However, the US Dollar was able ended higher against its main currency pairs and this makes crude oil denominated in US dollar becomes more expensive for foreign investors. Saudi Arabia also proved his promise to maintain production and in March of exporting 7.9 million barrels per day. Oil production of 10.29 million barrels per day Saudi Arabia in March to its highest level since early 2012.

WTI crude trading ends at the level of $ 59.55 per barrel, with daily lows $ 59.06 and $ 60.88 daily highs

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Nikkei Gains Three Days streak, Translucent Level 20,000

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Japanese stocks, Nikkei, managed to rebound, to this day has risen in three consecutive days and closed above the 20,000 level. Wall Street higher on Monday as well as the back yen touched 120.00 per dollar level of positive sentiment to the market.

Wall Street rose with the S & P 500 and Dow Jones managed to close trading at record highs after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans who spoke in Stockholm, said inflation in the US is too low, and the purpose of the Fed should push inflation to the target of 2% to keep rates flower until early next year.

The focus of market participants are now focused on Japanese economic growth data will be released tomorrow morning Cabinet Office. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast first-quarter Japanese GDP will grow 0.4% from the previous quarter, or 1.5% from the previous year.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Noyer: ECB Will Act If Inflation Not Achieve Target

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

The European Central Bank is ready to take more action to boost inflation if the quantitative easing program now could not give further evidence, said the head of the French central bank Christian Noyer on Tuesday.

Noyer, the speech at Euromoney conference in France said that the Eurosystem is prepared to act further if needed to fulfill its mandate to keep inflation close to but still below 2%.

Noyer, who sits on the ECB's governing council, said that the central bank's program to buy assets worth 60 billion euros ($ 67.05 billion) per month had a positive impact on inflation expectations. However, to achieve this target we need some more time.

Purchase program will continue until the end of September 2016 and so if we do not see any ongoing adjustment in the inflation path, said Noyer.

Noyer also said that external factors, especially from the decline in oil prices of late, has been confirmed for the fall in inflation. However, weakness in the economy also motivate the ECB to start quantitative purchase program.

Overall assessment of the current situation of the Euro area currently is lethargy still playing.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Investor Confidence levels down in the month of May

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast after growth in countries with high rates in Europe's largest economy is slowing down at the beginning of this year.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said that its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, fell to 41.9 in May from 53.3 in April. It was the lowest level since December. Economists had expected to decline to 49, according to the median estimate of 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Growth in Germany is slower than economists forecast in the first quarter, even from the Euro zone, which is their largest trading partner, which expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years. The Bundesbank predicts growth momentum while German manufacturing will decline in the coming months, they see consumer spending will support economic recovery.

Senior economist at one of the banks in Amsterdam said that this decline may be linked to fears about Greece and the rise in bond yields over the past few weeks. Strong domestic economic fundamentals, the number of workers increases, real wage growth has soared higher and corporate profits have also been improved.

German GDP rose by 0.3% in the first quarter, below neighboring countries such as France or Spain and 19 other euro area countries, which expanded 04% in the same period.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Inflation Rate Below Zero For The First Time Since 1960

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

UK inflation rate fell below zero for the first time in more than half a century, as the decline in food and energy prices reduce the cost of living.

Consumer prices fell by 0.1% from a year ago, reported by the national statistics bureau in London on Tuesday. Economists expect the inflation rate will remain at zero level, according to the median estimate of 35 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Core inflation rate fell to 0.8%, its lowest level since 2001.

With inflation well below the 2% target of the Bank of England, the policy makers currently slightly under pressure to Raise interest rates from a record low of 0.5%. BOE Governor Mark Carney said last week that any period of falling prices will only be temporary and it is estimated there will be a rise in inflation at the end of this year mean is the next step in the cost of borrowing is likely to be increased.

One economist at the brokerage firm in the UK, said that inflation is likely to remain near zero level in the short term before gradually entering an upward trend from the third quarter. However, inflation is likely to only reach the level of 1% at the end of 2015.

Print oil Strengthening 9-week streak

Monday, May 18, 2015

Crude oil ended slightly higher after a weak performance in early trading and barely reacted to the report the number of oil rigs back is reduced. Crude oil prices also recorded a strengthening of nine consecutive weekly.

At the beginning of the session oil prices traded down seriring strengthening dollar and the return of flood anxiety inventory. But then oil prices rose sharply after the dollar hit a series of US economic data.

Meanwhile, the number of rigs used to drill for oil fell as much as eight rigs to 600 rigs this week, after the previous two weeks respectively fell by 11 rigs and 24 rigs. In the same period last year, there were 1,531 rigs were operated. This week a record decline in 23 consecutive weeks.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

This week attention is drawn to Japan

Monday, May 18, 2015

Japan will release some economic data as well as the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan this week, so the attention of market participants will be drawn to the Land of the Rising Sun is.

Beginning the week, the Cabinet Office of Japan in earlier reports Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.9% in March from the previous month, and higher than economists' forecast of 1.7%. Although core machinery orders are considered as a reference to see investasti capital of the company, but the high volatility of these data make it difficult to market participants infer if only to see the data in a month.

While on Wednesday, the Cabinet Office will release data on gross domestic product (GDP) this year's first quarter. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast first-quarter Japanese GDP will grow 0.4% from the previous quarter, or 1.5% from the previous year. The predictions show the Japanese economy is on a moderate recovery path after a recession last year due to the increase in sales tax.

Bank of Japan (BOJ), which maintains monetary policy last month will hold a two-day meeting began on Thursday, and ends on Friday. In a meeting last month, the BOJ lowered its economic growth and inflation Japan. On Friday, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, said he does not see a need to provide additional stimulus in the near future, and still optimistic inflation target will be achieved. Nevertheless, the release of Japanese GDP data on Wednesday could be the BOJ will change the view that the possibility of an impact on monetary policy are taken.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Core Machinery Orders Up in March

Monday, May 18, 2015

Japan's Cabinet Office reported Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.9% in March from the previous month, and higher than economists' forecast of 1.7%. The report signals into Japanese firms started to increase capital expenditure for future business development. But the Cabinet Office also revised percentages in February to -1.4% from -0.4% the initial release.

Core machinery orders are considered as a reference to see investasti capital of the company, but the high volatility of these data make it difficult to market participants infer if only to see the data in a month.

When compared to last year, orders rose 2.6%. While during the first quarter, orders rose 6.3% from the previous quarter. Though data for March is better than expected, but the Cabinet Office said for the second quarter of this year, machinery orders are likely to be down 7.4% from the first quarter.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Tsipras Survived Reject wage cuts and Retirement

Monday, May 18, 2015

Perdama Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, promised his government would not retreat from its international loan negotiations with creditors. But Tsipras insists the decision must be achieved after months of talks.

Tsipras said the two parties generally agree with the fiscal targets and the rate of Value Added Tax (VAT) but do not agree in terms of labor and pension reforms. Furthermore, Tsipras said the agreement must include the primary budget surplus target is low for the year 2015-2016 and debt restructuring.

Greece will discuss the deadlock of negotiations on the sidelines of the EU leaders' meeting to be held 21-22 May in Riga, Latvia. Negotiations Greece has lasted more than 110 days and still not meet the agreement to launch further funds from the bailout of 240 billion euros in order to avoid bankruptcy. This impasse has been draining liquidity, return to recession conditions, and re-raises concerns Greece's future in the euro area

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greece: We Can Pay Wages And Retirement, Keep Agreement By End of May

Monday, May 18, 2015

The Greek government will pay wages and pensions in the public sector in the month of May but still require an agreement with creditors at the end of this month, said a spokesman for Greece on Monday, amid rising fears that the country is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Without the aid or access to debt markets, Athens is getting close to running out of money, they have emptied the amount of money Monetary Fund reserve for debt payment to the IMF last week. Investors dumped Greek stocks and bonds on Monday on fears that Athens could not pay the next month.

When asked about the IMF payments that will be due on June 5, spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis pemerintahanya reaffirmed the position that they aim to meet all obligations. When asked whether the government would pay wages and pensions this month, he replied "yes."

But he said that the government is expected to make a deal with the EU and IMF lenders this month, with kesepaktan at technical level on the 19th of May. Talks at the EU summit meeting in Riga this week will follow, then the possibility of an emergency meeting of euro zone ministers will expire before in May.

Sakellaridis say that we can say that the schedule where you have is in May or late May to conclude the deal. There must be a solution in the month of May so that we can resolve our liquidity problems.