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OPEC Output Up, Oil Prices Down

Friday, April 17th, 2015

Oil prices moved down at the beginning of the session on Friday, ending the rally this week, after OPEC said that its output soared in March, adding an excess of global oil supply. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the level of oil production in March rose as much as 810,000 barrels per day (bpd), be 30.79 million barrels per day which is equal to one-third of global supply. Thanks to the decline in output from the United States and other manufacturers due to the decline in oil prices since June last year, OPEC said demand for oil this year will be higher than previously estimated.

Jamie Webster, analysts and experts at IHS OPEC in Washington, said the OPEC strategy to suppress the high-cost producer is quite effective, but OEPC member states seems to have lost focus and produce as much oil as they can. Reports from OPEC will probably reinforce the perception that the major oil producing countries are risking part of the market ahead of a potential increase in the export of Iranian oil after the framework agreement with the country's nuclear program.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

The level of foreign investment in China is still high in the First Quarter

Friday, April 17th, 2015

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China rose by 2.2% in March, while capital outflow scored lower rise, as foreign corporate investors are still not disturbed by weak domestic economic performance. It brings foreign capital inflows rose 11.3% to 34.88 billion dollars for the first quarter. The data followed a number of disappointing data, including slowing domestic fixed asset investment, including property, and slowing industrial activity.

Projected foreign investment takes time to be understood and applied, making FDI into public sentiment indicators of late, but the level of FDI is still strong in recent months. Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang in March said the strong growth in the flow of foreign capital in the first 2 months of this year, including an increase of almost 874% for Saudi Arabia and 367% for France, is a one-way deal

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

The pound Translucent 3-Week High Level

Friday, April 17th, 2015

The pound strengthened against the US dollar and hit a 3-week high, before the US employment data is important. Many investors are reducing its position in the greenback as the expectation of delay interest rate hikes. The series of disappointing data from the world's largest economy led investors to doubt the strength of the US economic recovery.

After a fairly quiet trading in the Asian session, investors prepare ahead of average earnings data in the 3-month, claims for unemployment benefits as well as the overall unemployment rate is quite optimistic predicted by analysts. Data released at 15:30 GMT is expected to show an average 3-month earnings will rise at a rate of acceleration equal to the previous data release. Analysts are also optimistic for the data unemployment rate in February was also predicted to be 5.6% lower than the rate of 5.7% a month earlier in the year. Meanwhile analysts are adding to the number of the number of claims for unemployment benefits for the month of March from the previous month.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greece Has Time Until May 11 To Approve Reform Plan

Friday, April 17th, 2015

Greece has until the Eurogroup meeting in mid-May to approve the reform plan or potentially face a default, the Financial Times reported, citing an official of the European Union on Friday. Pierre Moscovici, European Commissioner for economic and financial affairs, said that the meeting on 11 May will be a defining moment for the Mediterranean.

"We still have two important meetings. The opportunity in a meeting in Riga on April 24 will have to be a useful moment in which we want to see real progress in the reform plan. And the next meeting on May 11 should be decisive," said Moscovici told the FT.

Greece at risk of running out of cash in the next few months unless they agreed reform initiatives proposed by international creditors. Achieving consensus on reform measures will open the flow of bailout funds for Greece next stage, which is needed to pay loans to the International Monetary Fund.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Improved Labor Sector UK, Unemployment Rate Down

Friday, April 17th, 2015

The number of Britons who work to grow the most in a year in the three months to February and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly 7 years diving. The latest data on employment and earnings before elections next May 7 also shows the rate of wage growth generally slowed in the 3 months to February. Office for National Statistics said the number of employed increased by 248 000 people, the largest increase in the period of 3 months since April 2014, to a record at 31 049 million people. The ONS said the level of employment at 73.4 shows that the increase is not usually to reach a record high.

The ONS also said that the UK unemployment rate fell to 5.6%, its lowest level since July 2008 and down from 7.9% in the previous election. The average number of weekly earnings in the three months to February, including bonuses, rose as much as 1.7% in comparison with the same period a year earlier, slowing from 1.9% in January. Outside bonuses, wages rose as much as 1.8%, slightly accelerating. Economists estimate the total wages rose as much as 1.8% and outside the bonus will increase by 1.7%.

Brent Crude Oil Touch Highest Level in 2015

Thursday, April 16th, 2015

Brent Crude Oil soared to its highest level in 2015 above $ 63 per barrel on Thursday, after the previous day had rallied more than 5 percent. While US oil futures also jumped to a $ 56.69, the highest level in 2015, before finally fell down.

Oil rally of more than 5 per cent trigger transition investor sentiment became bullish on oil prices. Moreover, at the same time there are reports of US oil production decline significantly, where the level of oil production in the US for an average of four weeks turned negative for the first time since July 2014.

Institutions own EIA estimates strengthening world oil market prices are still less likely due to the amount of OPEC oil supply is still high, even potentially increased sharply after Iran embargo removed, but on the one hand the rate of world oil demand began to improve.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

The British Politics temperature Escalates

Thursday, April 16th, 2015

British Liberal Democrat stronghold potentially determine the direction of the winner after the British election the Conservatives competition with the Labour party, which has said it will support the Liberal Democrat Prime Minister David Cameran plan of the conservative party to hold a referendum on membership in the Euro zone.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader stated that the referendum should be held if there is a change EU treaties. But Clegg still provide certainty coalition with the conservative party.

So far this has not been established whether the party center-right, the Labour party or Cameron from conservative party will win a majority in the elections which lasted 7 May. It is estimated that the election will be the toughest election in Britain since the 1970s.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Growth of UK House Prices Touch Level 5-Month High

Thursday, April 16th, 2015

House prices in the UK grew at the fastest pace in five months in March, triggered by the lack of the number of properties, according to the survey results on Thursday, adding to signs that the slowdown in the housing market may be over. Monthly house price index by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) rose to +21 in March, is above the Reuters estimates, and from +15 in February. There are signals of uncertainty regarding future elections on May 7 that makes sellers refrain from putting the property on the market, according to the RICS.

Simon Rubinsohn, economist kepalam RICS, said however that the current trend is seen from the results of the latest survey is the housing sector crisis is very real, which should be addressed in the near future by the next administration. The housing sector has been becoming major problems in the elections to the Conservative Party and the Labour opposition parties competing in the polls sound. Earlier in the week, Cameron said he would extend the "right-to-buy" for people to buy a new home on the cheap, including social housing owned by a non-profit organization. The move was accused of being a "bribery" by Labour. Rubinsohn said there are tentative signs that the momentum of house prices can go up as the supply of homes on the market continued to fall.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro zone inflation estimated Down Exceeds Estimates

Thursday, April 16th, 2015

Some economists said the euro zone inflation will fall more than forecast in this year, before returning rise next year to respond to the quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank.

Survey of Professional Forecasters of ECB showed inflation will only grow 0.1% this year, down 0.2% from the projection in January. The survey was conducted on a quarterly basis to some economic analysts and is not a projection of the members of the ECB. However, for the following years the growth rate of inflation is expected to be higher, in 2016 inflation is expected to reach 1.2% compared to the previous projection of 1.1%. And in 2017 inflation is projected to rise 1.7% from 1.6%.

The latest data from Eurostat showed euro zone inflation at 0.1% in March, and has been in negative territory in four consecutive months. The ECB targets inflation at 2% over the medium term.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Car Sales in EU Rise in March

Thursday, April 16th, 2015

Demand for new cars in March, Up 11%, being the highest since the same period last year. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) said new car registrations, which is a reflection of sales, up 1.6 million units from the previous year. Until March sales increase has occurred in the 19 months straight.

Sales in Portugal recorded shot 42% in March from a year earlier, Spain and Italy respectively recorded an increase of 41% and 15%. Other double-digit sales increase recorded by Greece and Ireland.

The largest automotive market in Europe, Germany, recorded an increase of 9%, while France was slightly higher at 9.3%.

IEA Estimate Global Oil Demand Increases

Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

Oil demand will rise this year more than previous estimates, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was released Wednesday. Expectations of the IEA to rise sharply in the level of oil demand in 2015 occurred after Iran proposes member countries Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production. The price of oil is currently trading at about half the price in June last year, making the oil-producing countries and companies is difficult to profit.

Despite the decline in prices, some manufacturers continue to increase the number of supply, with Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter in OPEC, confident that the price reduction will make US shale oil production types are more expensive to less economical. However, a number of small oil producing countries in the Middle East also feel the impact of falling oil prices. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh memangks menguruslkan that OPEC production quota levels at least as much as 5% on Tuesday, according to local oil ministry's website. This happens after world powers agreed on a framework agreement with Iran over its nuclear program, triggering anxiety increased excess supply in the oil market if Iran sanctions lifted.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's Growth Slows Become 7%

Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

China's economy grew at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the first quarter, according to government data on Wednesday, increasing the chance of additional stimulus from the government. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7% in the first quarter, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, according to Reuters estimates and following a 7.3% sebeasr growth in the previous quarter. This result is the lowest since the first quarter of 2009, when the peak of the financial crisis, in which the growth rate slowed to 6.6%. At the quarterly level, the economy grew by 1.3%, was slightly below estimates of 1.4% sebeasr and compared with 1.5% in the previous quarter.

Other data released in conjunction with GDP also were below expectations. Industrial output grew by 5.6% in March from a year earlier, worse than expected at 10.9%, while retail sales rose as much as 10.2% to an annual rate, below the estimate of 10.9%. Fixed asset investment in the first quarter rose as much as 13.5%, was below the estimated increase of 13.8%. The Australian dollar fell after the data was released, while the Chinese joint-stock index fell 0.2% sebeasr, and the index of Hong Kong trim the gain to enter the negative area.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China rejects Taiwan Join AIIB for Special Reason

Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

On Monday, the government of Taiwan claimed that his application to become a member of the Asian infrastructure bank rejected by China. However, membership in the future is still possible if Taiwan wear 'other names' in the petition.

Problem 'name' is claimed to be an obstacle for Taiwan to join. As is known in various events and international forums, including the Olympics, Taiwan usually use the name 'Chinese Taipei' as the country's identity. This is thought to be the source of objection Beijing to accept Taiwan's membership.

The word 'China' does not only reflect the superiority of the largest economies in the Asian country. But also carry the memory of the history of the less well in the past. Chinese Taipei or Taiwan was once part of China that now stands, before finally separated in 1949 due to civil war. Beijing government wants only one 'China' in the international world, and Chinese Taipei is not a sovereign entity unless the government the name Taiwan.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is a savings and loan bank established by China as a source of funding countries that need capital development. Its existence is considered by the United States and its allies as a means to expand China's influence, although in the end some of Washington's allies joined in, including the UK and Germany. Indonesia itself has joined AIIB since it was first established although absent at launch last year.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB's Draghi: Stimulus QE Start Shows Effectiveness

Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

ECB President Mario Draghi welcomed the positive signal of economic recovery after the stimulus program began disbursed last month, but Draghi also confirmed that the full-scale stimulus of $ 1.1 trillion in the form of bond buying program will be continued until the target is reached inflation.

In his press conference that had been disrupted by protesters who jumped into action Draghi table, Mr. Draghi optimistic that there is clear evidence that monetary easing measures taken by the ECB started to show its effectiveness.

Even at this early stage success has triggered comment hawkish ECB officials, Yves Mersch to withdraw stimulus program earlier than estimated if inflation is already close to the level of 2%. But at a press conference this time, seeks to curb speculation Draghi ECB stimulus withdrawal and reiterated its commitment to the implementation of QE in full in order to ensure economic recovery.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Weakening Currency Euro Zone Exports Increase

Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

Further weakening of the euro exchange rate can increase eurozone exports and increase trade surplus in February. The increase is a signal weakening euro could encourage economic recovery block 19 countries.

Eurostat reported a trade surplus rose to € 20.3 billion in February from € 14.4 billion in February 2014. Exports reported an increase of 4% while imports are not much changed.

The euro has weakened against the dollar and other currencies since May 2014, the decline continued in this year after the European Central Bank launched its quantitative easing program worth € 1 trillion and will last until September 2016.

Intnernational Monetary Fund, the World econmic Outlook report Tuesday said the weakening of the euro in the short term would be detrimental to the export of the United States, but in the medium term will be profitable after the European economic recovery

Oil Stable In Positive Territory

Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

US crude oil futures tend to be higher on Tuesday amid expectations of declining stocks of US shale oil reserves for the first time in the last 4 years, but analysts warned the global oil supply is excessive as the increase in the rate of Chinese exports.

EIA estimates that US oil shale production fell 45,000 barrels to 4.98 million barrels per day in May from April, indicating a decrease in the shale oil output was booming, but the middle of the fall in world oil prices since June slowdown the pace of shale oil production.

Although the Middle East political instability also helped boost oil prices, but the high rate of global oil production and the strengthening of the stock price has limited the increase in oil. Supply of oil from the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq is still rising. While in Asia, China reportedly exported 750,000 tons of crude oil in March, the largest export volume since 2006, indicating that the Chinese began to shortage of oil storage capacity

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

New loan level in China Exceeds Expectations

Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

The addition of new loans in China in March, higher than expected, but the money supply growth slowed for the same period. The increase in borrowing rates reflect the success of China's monetary easing policy at the beginning of the year to increase the pace of the world's second largest economy. Cutting interest rates make borrowing costs will be lower so that the prospective borrower is steadily applying for loans. Nevertheless, the growth of money supply lower than expected increase market speculation that the central bank will launch additional policies to support growth.

Chinese banks approved 1.18 trillion yuan of new loans, higher than the forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters that the addition of 1.03 trillion yuan, and the addition of 1.02 trillion yuan in February. While the supply of money in March rose 11.6% from a year earlier, lower than expected 12.3% rise and slower than the 12.5% ​​increase in February.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Streaking Euro Zone Industrial Production in February

Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

The continued weakness of the euro has an impact on the euro zone economy, industrial production block 19 countries raced in February. Eurostat reported industrial production, which includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities, up 1.1% in February from the previous month, and up 1.6% compared to February 2014. This increase was well above expectations for a rise of 0.3 % by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. The increase in industrial production in February led by a 1.6% increase in manufacturing output for non-durable goods.

The low economic growth and a continued decline in inflationary pressures make the European Central Bank launched its asset purchase program worth € 1 trillion in the last month, which makes the euro continued to weaken. In the last month the euro hit a 12-year low against the dollar.

The European Commission expects the euro zone economy will grow gradually this year, 0.3% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK inflation Stagnant In March

Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI) English to survive in a record low of zero percent in March, but the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) is still signaling a potential rise in interest rates. Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported monthly inflation in the UK rose 0.2% between February and March, but compared to previous years, there are no price changes. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted stagnation indicator becomes an important factor for consideration of the value of the currency and interest rates.

UK inflation is still far from the target of 2% BoE. The decline in inflation is depressed slump in oil prices since the middle of last year, as well as a decrease in the price of food. Nonetheless, the prospect of this price reduction is not necessarily alter the Bank of England's monetary policy. BoE Governor, Mark Carney, said last month's decision to cut interest rates in response to the falling price of oil will be "very ******". Economists surveyed by Reuters also predicts the next BoE monetary policy is to raise interest rates as soon as next year.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greek Debt Default Braces

Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

Greece reportedly preparing a dramatic step to declare a debt default, unless they can reach an agreement with international creditors in late April, according to a government resource quote from the view of the radical left-wing party.

Athens, which is rapidly running out of funds to pay public sector wages and pensions countries, has decided to suspend payment of € 2.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May and June, if no agreement is reached.

"We have been at the end of the road, if Europe is not willing to disburse cash assistance through the bailout there would be no alternative other than the default," said a government official

Oil Crawling Up In Asian Session

Monday, April 13th, 2015

Oil prices climbed in Asian trading session on Monday following a slick performance on Friday, as traders add their bullish positions on oil in a slowing rate of US oil drilling. Large investors predict that the price of oil has hit bottom, according to US government data. Financial managers and other large speculators on the price of oil futures and options add to their long positions as much as 52 million barrels in the week ended April 7, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This figure is the biggest weekly gain since 2011, according to CFTC data.

ANZ said that speculators in the market seems to predict a decline in oil prices has ended. While saying that oil prices probably will not go down much deeper, ANZ also said that the possibility of oil prices will not rally. According to ANZ, although there are tentative signs of an increase in the level of demand and the number of rigs fell to the lowest level since 2010, surplus oil in the global markets triggered by the increase in US oil supplies and the output of Saudi Arabia which rose to a record high will limit the potential rally. On the demand side, the level of Japan's machinery orders fell for a second month in February, signaling a weak level of business investment that can hinders the government's attempt to escape from the economic problems for decades.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Disappointing Chinese Commerce Data

Monday, April 13th, 2015

The country's exports fell by surprise in March, according to data on Monday, becoming worse warning for the first quarter GDP data to be released Wednesday. The level of exports fell by 14.6% from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, due to weak global demand and the impact of the Chinese New Year. This figure compared with estimates for a gain of 12% and an increase of 48.3% followed in February. While the level of imports fell by as much as 12.3%, slightly worse than expected decline in sebsear 11.7% and 20.5% sebeasr following a decline in the previous month. The trade surplus for the month of March was 3:08 billion, well below the estimated 43.8 billion dollars.

March trade data will be an advanced focus as the first data that is typically not affected by the Lunar New Year, which tends to suppress the data in January and February. According to Tony Nash, vice president of the Delta Economics, the real issues in the Chinese trade data is due to the absence of revision. He said that the export figures by 45% last month too high and the current rate is too low.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japan Machinery Orders Reduced, Capital Expenditure still weak

Monday, April 13th, 2015

The level of Japan's core machinery orders, an indicator of the level of capital spending, fell during the second month in a row in February, signaling a weak level of business investment that could hamper the government's attempt to escape from the economic problems for some nearby. A monthly decline of 0.4% in machinery orders, which followed a number of other negative data, raises further doubts about the strong economic recovery after the recession last year. Data from the Cabinet Office on Monday compared with analyst estimates for a decline of 2.8% and following a decline of 1.7% in January.

The Japanese government relied on the increase of capital expenditure to be able to trigger a cycle of healthy economic growth through increased employment and wage levels, and the high consumption of private sector. Level of engine order is considered as an indicator of capital spending in the next 6-9 months, and the latest data will be assessed as a slowdown in business investment in the future. Analysts said that the decline in orders into partly a reaction to the sharp rise in December, according to the central bank's view that the level of capital expenditure is being restored gradually due to higher corporate profits. But the weak level of capital expenditure for the new fiscal year that began April 1 and, as seen in the Tankan survey, indicating that the level of business investment is likely to remain slow to recover from the slump after last year's sales tax increase.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Worried about Greece, Euro Shown Defensive

Monday, April 13th, 2015

The euro appeared defensive on Monday morning, pressured by the stimulus of the European Central Bank that pushed bond yields in the euro zone fell and anxiety about the discussion between Greece with the relevant creditors additional aid for Athens. The euro traded at around 1.0595, after touching a low level of 1.0566 on Friday. Shin Kadota, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo said that the euro will weaken down peritasl level against the dollar by the end of this year due to easing the ECB and the lack of capital yields in the euro zone. Investors have let go of the euro as the ECB's bond purchases last month which has pressured the euro zone bond yields to a negative level in a number of countries.

Other pressures come from trying to convince Greek euro zone with its reform program ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance MINISTER April 24 to discuss further aid for Athens. German newspaper reported on Saturday that the euro zone officials were surprised at the failure of Greece to provide details of the structural reform plans in discussion last week in Brussels. Data from the US financial watchdog agency on Friday showed net short position on speculators against the euro remained near a record high. Euro short positions reached 215.258 contracts last week, was close to the record achieved as much as 226.560 contract prior week.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Italian Industrial Production Up in February

Monday, April 13th, 2015

Europe's third largest economy, Italy, again showing the signal out of the worst recession since World War after industrial production data released in February after rising expectations.

Statistics bureau Istat reported industrial production rose 0.6% in February from the previous month were down 0.7%. The increase was led by the production of energy by 3.6% and 1.1% of investment goods. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal has previously been estimated that 0.6% increase, and

When compared with February of the previous year, industrial production fell 0.2%. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal has previously been estimated that 0.6% increase, and down 1.4% when compared with the previous year.

The Italian government estimates that the country's economy will come out of recession this year, with gross domestic product grew 0.7% after a three-year contract