mynameisandhy

Collapsing oil ahead of OPEC meeting

Friday, June 5th, 2015

Oil slipped on Friday approached its lowest level in the past week as expectations OPEC meeting results will still maintain its output targets unchanged.

Overall the price of oil has risen more than 30% in the last 2 months, but the rally began to fade and prices entered a phase of consolidation in the past two weeks. Although most observers predicted OPEC will not change production quotas, but the OPEC meeting will still be examined for clues OPEC step further.

OPEC's last meeting on November 4, the oil producers' cartel is surprisingly still maintaining its production target at 30 million barrels per day despite the sharp fall of oil prices.

So far the price of US crude oil futures fell -0.67% to $ 57.61 per barrel after reaching its highest point in the $ 58.16 intraday and daily lows at $ 57.26 per barrel

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Chancellor of Germany: Greece Must Want Doing Reform 'Cruel'

Friday, June 5th, 2015

Greek debt negotiations has not produced results despite the negotiating parties begin to see the light. Athens government are in great pressure because they do not have the money to pay the mortgage debt maturing today.

Post deadlock in the last meeting between Greece and the creditors (the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and the European Union), the German Chancellor said that the crisis can only be terminated if there is one party that wants to budge. Especially for Greece, Angela Merkel assess the government should be willing to agree on a bailout scheme specified by the creditor. He also asked Greece to emulate the Irish, who have dared to undertake a policy of 'cruel' for the sake of restoring the national economy.

"Ireland will carry out the program (efficiency) is painful, and this is what should be emulated by Greece in order to remain in the euro zone," he told CNN. Merkel itself take part in the process of resolving the crisis given the position of head of state importance as Europe's largest economy. He has held a meeting with the President of France, the Central Bank boss European (ECB) and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday to discuss the news of the Greek developments. All three agreed to a new bailout clause thrusts with the terms of the austerity program. But until the last meeting yesterday, the Greek government, represented by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has not been willing to sign the agreement because it considers the request of creditors too cruel.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Bundesbank The German Economy Project Optimistic

Friday, June 5th, 2015

Bundesbank more optimistic projecting economic growth in Germany over the low level of unemployment and the increase in the level of consumption. In the six-month projections, Germany's central bank raised its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Germany in 2015 to 1.7% and 1.8% for 2016. This projection is higher than projected in December, namely 1% for 2015 and 1 , 6% for 2016.

Europe's largest economies take advantage of the increase in the number of workers, lower global oil prices, and the success of the program of quantitative easing (QE) to stimulate the recovery of the European Central bank. Bundesbank added that the German economy is recovering faster than expected and this recovery will trigger an increase in inflation. Similar to the calculation of the European Union, the German Bundesbank predicts inflation will be in the range of 0.5% for this year, 1.8% in 2016, and 2.2% in 2017

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Consumer interest in the Euro Zone Factory Orders Spur Germany In April

Friday, June 5th, 2015

International consumer interest in products of German manufacturing in April increased and it became a catalyst enhancement Factory Orders Data. The low valuation of the Euro as a result of the quantitative easing program (QE) European Central Bank seems to be able to increase the sale value of German exports at the beginning of the second quarter.

Monthly German factory orders 1.4% higher in April. This increase was better than expected and the previous report. Before the data was released, the market predicts rise in factory orders only 0.6% of the data for March were revised up from 0.9% higher to an increase of 1.1%. In a detailed report, Destatis detailing overseas orders grew 5.5% with orders for the Euro zone increased by 6.8%. While consumer non-Euro zone increased by only 4.7% and domestic orders fell 3.8% otherwise.

Factory orders data is one of the main indicators of production companies. Increased orders will be signaling an increase in the activity of the company and in general can be a positive outlook for the economy of the country.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greece Will Holds Early Elections if EU / IMF Not Softened

Friday, June 5th, 2015

Greek left-wing government elections may be held earlier if the parties do not loosen the requirements of international lenders of their agreement, according to Deputy Social Welfare Minister Dimitris Stratoulis, a hard-line officials in the government, Friday. He said that the creditors want to impose a strict policy, and if they do not loosen the package "extortion" against the government, perhaps Greece will seek alternative solutions that election.

Stratoulis known to be close to the left faction of the party Syriza, and it is unclear whether the statement shows an overall view of the party members. However, the statement underlined the anger against the proposal of the creditors and speculation that Syriza party would look for alternatives in order to avoid to not accept the plan. Greece has delayed payments to the International Monetary Fund debt maturing this Friday as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras who face the wrath of his left-wing supporters, asking for changes to the difficult conditions of international creditors.

Oil Shadowed Negative Sentiment Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Thursday, June 4th, 2015

Crude oil prices plunged about 2.5% on Wednesday as traders and investors ignore the drop in weekly stocks for the 5th consecutive week, and more focused on distillate oil inventories surge in the middle of the peak driving season in the US.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories fell 1.95 million barrels last week, exceeding the estimated decline of 1.7 million barrels in a Reuters survey. But stocks of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 3.8 million barrels reported or nearly 4 times the 1.1 million barrel increase forecast.

In addition, the market also overshadowed the bearish sentiment ahead of the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday. OPEC, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, is expected to reject any pressure to reduce output and continues to produce about 2 million barrels per day above demand

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BOJ Harada: Yen Being in the "Level The Pretty Good"

Thursday, June 4th, 2015

A weaker yen means currency lately is the "good level," according to a new board member Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada, according to Bloomberg, indicating a slight inconvenience to the weakening yen hit a low of 12-1 / 2-year this week. Overall, the positive impact of a weaker yen exceeded the negative impact due to raise corporate earnings, the level of exports, and help create jobs, Harada said in an interview with Bloomberg. If we look at the progress on kompetitifitas in various industries, then we can conclude that the yen is at a place that is quite appropriate, Price said about the weakening yen, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Dollardiperdagangkan in the range of 124.26 yen, not far from the high level of 12-1 / 2-year at 125.07 reached last Tuesday. The yen has weakened about 37% against the dollar since late 2012 when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office with a promise to end the burden of currency gains on Japanese exporters. One other reason for a weaker yen is a quantitative easing program launched by the BOJ, which aims to boost the rate of inflation by buying government bonds in large quantities. The BOJ has repeatedly said that monetary policy is not aimed at weakening the yen, but some economists worry that if the yen weakens too sharp then it can cause friction in trade or hurt consumer sentiment to inflate the price of imports. Harada BOJ reiterated the view that the rate of consumer prices is likely to achieve the inflation target of 2% around the first half of fiscal 2016, and further policy easing is not needed as long as the mechanism for price increases is still valid, according to Bloomberg. Harada joined the BOJ board members in March for a term of 5 years.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Bank of England Hold Interest Rates 0.5%

Thursday, June 4th, 2015

As predicted by many, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates and the asset purchase program at a monetary policy meeting today. BoE Monetary Policy Committee opted to keep interest rates of 0.5% and asset purchases worth £ 375 billion, while the UK experienced deflation.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics on 19 May showed the consumer price index (year-on-year) of -0.1%, or deflation in April. Deflation is the first since 1960.

Although demkian BoE board member is not too worrying deflation, and said the consumer price index will recover soon. The latest forecasts from the Bank of England showed inflation target of 2% will be reached in early 2017. The UK economy which last year led growth than the G7 countries also slowed grew 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, with only grew 0, 3%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French economy Improving, But Still Risky

Thursday, June 4th, 2015

The Bank of France said that France's economic growth will exceed the expectations of the country's government and will berakselesari next year and the year 2017. The French economy is expected to grow 1.2% this year, while the French government's official estimate of 1%, and for 2016 by 1.8%, in 2017 by 1.9%.

The central bank adds French economic growth will be sustained low oil prices, increased exports following the weakening of the euro, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, as well as increased corporate profits.

However the Bank of France still estimates for uncertainties in the outlook. Investasti meingkatanya business expectations may fade if the company is using increased profits to pay off debts. While consumer spending may be lower than expected if households still save money at the same level today.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Liikanen: Continue QE Inflation Target Reached

Thursday, June 4th, 2015

The ECB reiterated his commitment to the easing program kuantitative and it was likely to be passed on beyond the end of the period of September 2016. Members of the board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Erkki Liikanen, the media quoted MarketWatch, stated the program of quantitative easing (QE) ECB can be resumed after a month September 2016 ECB inflation target for the euro zone were a little under 2% has not been reached. Liikanen, who is also the Governor of the Bank of Finland, said he wanted to make consistent with the ECB's target inflation permanently.

For Liikanen program of buying government bonds with a value of 60 billion euros per month this has a positive impact on the economy of the Euro zone. The stronger inflation expectations and the overall economy of the Euro zone countries begin to recover when compared to a year ago.

The manufacturing sector the main countries of Euro zone managed to increase outperformed market expectations in May and for the first time in six months the Euro zone consumer inflation rose in May. As a result, positive economic data from the 19-nation bloc have also contributed to the strengthening of the Euro against other currencies in the pair earlier this week

Oil Return worry Excess Supplies

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015

Crude oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday as the excess supply back kecemasna pervaded the market, with OPEC is not expected to announce cuts production levels at a meeting Friday. The core member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls more than 40% of global oil production, has an agreement to maintain oil output at a meeting this week, according to one senior OPEC delegate told Reuters in Vienna on Tuesday. According to these sources, there is an agreement between the member states and other OPEC to maintain production limits, and it seems no one wants to argue the agreement.

The high level of production from OPEC, and also other countries such as the type of shale oil producer in the United States and Russia, have contributed to the current oversupply on the market and create a tanker containing millions of barrels of oil without a buyer. Some analysts say that the chances of OPEC cuts production targets are still there. According to Barclays, with increasing geopolitical risks that threaten oil supplies from the Middle East and North Africa, it appears that OPEC may not be memangkasn quota production, but the increase is still possible. Meanwhile Citi analyst said this week that given the OPEC expected to maintain his output, global oil surplus will last until 2016.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Service Sector Down to Lowest Level 5 Months

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015

The strength of the British economy back in doubt after the country's services sector activity fell to its lowest level in five months. In the first quarter of last, the British economy grew at its lowest rate since 2012.

Markit report on manufacturing activity index fell to 56.5 in May from 59.1 the previous month. The decline was also much larger than economists' estimates for 59.2. Markit previously released data on manufacturing activity index of 52.0, and the construction sector activity index of 55.9.

According to Markit data will bring the British economy grew 0.5% in the second quarter, after growing 0.3% in the first quarter. Bank of England in mid-May, has lowered the growth forecast for the UK economy this year to 2.5%, from the previous estimate of 2.9%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro Zone Unemployment Rate Dropped in April

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015

Eurozone unemployment rate in April fell to its lowest level in more than three years, be another positive signal after a previously reported inflation rose for the first time in the last six months. Filling positive data was released from the block 19 countries namely retail sales rose for the first time in the last four months.

Eurostat reported euro zone unemployment rate fell to 11.1% in April from 11.2% the previous month. The number of unemployed fell 130,000 in April, the biggest drop in since December 2014. While retail sales were reported up 0.7%, and became the most since January.

These data begin to mark the rise of consumer spending, which is a fundamental factor required by the European Central Bank to bring inflation closer to the target of 2.0%. Eurostat on Tuesday reported May inflation (year-on-year) rose 0.3%, from the previous month 0%, and higher than economists' estimates of 0.2%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Hold Interest Rates, Inflation Projection Raise

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015

Amid signs the recovery of the eurozone economy, the European Central Bank still retains lending rate of 0.05% at a policy meeting that ends today. For the interest rate on deposits also maintained at -0.20%.

The inflation rate is said to have reached its lowest level at the beginning of this year, and the future is expected to increase, though still low. President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, in a press conference today raised its forecast for inflation this year to 0.3%, compared to projections in March were estimated inflation this year will be flat. As for the projected 2016 and 2017 unchanged at 1.5% and 1.8%. Draghi also said inflation will continue to observe trends, and fluctuations in the short term.

For economic growth, the ECB still maintains the projection of 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2016, but lowered its forecast in 2017 to 2.0% from the previous 2.1%. Draghi said the asset purchase program had a positive impact, and the ECB is planning to maintain the program until the month of September 2016.

The ECB also still cautious response to the Greek problem, and provide room for negotiations between Greece with the EU. The ECB will also seek to prevent a Greek exit from the euro zone

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's PMI Services Sector Increase to 53.5

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015

China's pace of service sector activity accelerated in May as the level of new business grew by the fastest pace in three years, according to the survey results Wednesday, a surprise good news for the government which is trying to revive a slowing economy. However, economists are still worried about the outlook for China's economy as a whole, in line with the pace of loan growth remains weak and stagnant manufacturing sector, reinforcing the view that pemeirntah will have to pour more stimulus again to avoid a sharper slowdown.

China's services sector PMI by HSBC / Markit separately in May was at 53.5, up from 52.9 in April, and is well above the 50 level that separates contraction and expansion. May data showed acceleration for 4 months in a row. Index sub-component of the new business is at 54.4, up from 52.8 in April and the highest level since 54.7 in May 2012. The level of employment in service companies grew at the fastest pace since January 2013, according to the survey, a bright signal for pemeirntah line dismissal continues on the manufacturing sector, which usually becomes absorbing labor in China. According to one economist at Markit, in kesleuruhan momentum of growth was relatively weak, weighed down by weakness in the manufacturing sector operating conditions. Therefore, it may take additional stimulus measures to make the government remains on track towards the target GDP growth of 7%, he added.

Oil Rises Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

The weakening dollar on perdagngan today able mengdongkrak oil performance ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday. OPEC members will meet in Viena to decide the amount of oil production within the next six months. Analysts expect OPEC will maintain its oil production quantities.

The release of economic data were better than estimates from the United Kingdom, and the eurozone make the exchange rate of sterling and the euro strengthened against the dollar. The dollar index against major currencies weakened about 0.6%. Depreciation diollar favorable for the dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.

Other positive sentiment came from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister who said that oil demand will rise in the second half of this year, while supply will be reduced, and a sign of the success of Saudi Arabia's strategy to maintain market share.

WTI crude oil traded the range of $ 61.13 a barrel at 18:34 pm, with daily lows $ 60.07, and the highest $ 61.13

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China Manufacturing Sector Stimulus Not Responding

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

China's manufacturing sector showed little progress signals in the month of May as the level of demand is still weak, while the level of exports in South Korea scored its biggest annual decline since the financial crisis, poor results which will lead to proposals for additional stimulus measures. However, the Japanese manufacturing sector achieve an increase in the level of new orders while the manufacturing sector of India achieve the level of domestic demand is solid, giving hope for the region to recover in the second quarter. Meanwhile, data on Monday showed the level of South Korea's exports in May scored the biggest annual decline in almost six years, with a decrease in the level of sales towards all major market share yaotu China, the US and the European Union. Survey South Korean manufacturing sector PMI also came back down for a third month in May to 47.8, its lowest level since August 2013, from 48.8 in April. The focus now will shift to the United States and some parts of Europe, which is expected to achieve a more robust factory activity to dampen the impact of the global slowdown on China.

China on Monday reported the official PMI of manufacturing sector rose to 50.2 in May, from 50.1 in April and re-enters the expansion area. But the results of a private survey on small and medium-sized companies showed activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for a third month in a row. Manufacturing sector PMI by HSBC / Markit is at 49.2. Both indexes are near the 50 level that separates contraction and expansion, the manufacturing sector showed limited activity. And both indices indicate contraction in export orders making factories reduce more workers. A separate survey showed the rate perumbuhan services industry in China slowed in May, with the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 53.4.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Manufacturing activity in the UK Increases Thin in May

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

Data from Markit / CIPS showed UK manufacturing activity rose slightly in May, which raises doubts about the strength of the British economy in the second quarter in the year. Markit / CIPS report on manufacturing activity index in May amounted to 52.0, while for April was revised down to 51.8 from 51.9 the previous release. Figures index in May was lower than the estimate of analysts polled by Reuters of 52.5.

Total labor recruitment manufacturing sector was at its lowest level in the last two years, provide an overview start slowing job creation or explosion since mid-2013.

In the first quarter of this year, the British manufacturing output grew only 0.1%. The thin reinforcement bring the British economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter, a percentage lower than economists' estimates of 0.4%.

British economic growth forecast this year has been lowered by the Bank of England to 2.5%, from the previous projection of 2.9%

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro Zone Inflation Up Taller Of Estimates

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

Inflation in the euro zone rose for the first time in the last six months, and the increase is also higher than estimated by economists. The increase in inflation is also a good news for the European Central Bank which has poured huge funds through asset purchase program to bring the euro zone out of deflation.

Eurostat reported konsune eurozone price index in May (year-onyear) rose 0.3%, from the previous month 0%, and higher than economists' estimates of 0.2%. The rise in inflation was triggered by the increase in energy costs, as well as signs of improvement in consumer spending.

Eurozone entered a period of deflation in December, the ECB then announced asset purchase program worth that began in March, and ended in September 2016. The total value of the program commonly called quantitaive easing amounting to € 1 trillion.

The core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food sectors in the calculation, it was reported up 0.9% higher than economists' estimates of 0.7%

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Spain)

Recovered economy, Unemployment in Spain Reduced Drastically

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

Spanish labor sector has improved in mid 2015. This indication is evident from the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the month of May, where the figure fell sharply compared to the previous month.

According to the Spanish Ministry of Labor, jobless claims figures dropped as much as 117 985 to 4.22 million. While the number of claims adjusted for seasonal factors, the figure fell as much as 34 160. The rate of decline in claims, either adjusted or not, is the best monthly record for the Spanish labor sector.

Spain's economy began to recover gradually since mid-2013 and then, after experiencing recession into both the last five years. Its gross domestic product grew 0.9% in the quarter compared to the last quarter of 2014 prime and grew 2.7% compared to the same period last year. Most of the economic growth supported by tingginnya demand from domestic consumers.

The drop in unemployment claims is mostly in the service sector, where the figure slumped 68 826. Followed by other sectors such as construction, industry and agriculture.

Production expectations OPEC Oil Price Press

Monday, June 1st, 2015

The crude oil market weakened again after the biggest rally in a month occurred on Friday last week. Crude oil prices fell in the beginning of the week as expectations OPEC production will remain high after an increase in May. Investors worried that the high OPEC production will add to the flood of global oil supplies as well further depress oil prices. OPEC will meet in Vienna on Friday, and the market predicts tesebut oil cartel would maintain production levels above 30 million barrels per day.

Towards the end of trading on Friday, crude oil prices rose 5% and become the largest rally in a month. Investors enthusiastically responded to the report of US oil producer, which disables 13 rigs during the last week, based on data collected by Baker Hughes. It marked the 25th straight week decline and become the biggest drop in four weeks. Market participants expect a decrease in the number of rigs into signals manufacturers still holding down the rate of production and its impact also lowered production.

At 10:50 pm, the price of crude oil was at $ 59.83 a barrel, near the lowest prices daily $ 59.72 to $ 60.27 daily highs

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Manufacturing sector Back Expanding

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in May for the first time in two months as the level of domestic orders and output increased, signaling the economy will probably continue to recover post hampered in April. Japanese manufacturing sector PMI by Markit / JMMA rose to 50.09 in May, unchanged from the previous result but improved from 49.9 in April. Index back to the top level of 50 that separates contraction and expansion for the first time in 2 months.

An advanced level of new orders rose 50.9, compared to the previous estimate of 51.2 and the results in April at 48.8. Output index rose to 51.9 slightly higher than the previous estimate at 51.7 and 49.3 in April. The index for new export orders was at 50.6, slightly higher than the previous estimate at 50.2 and 50.3 in the previous month. Expansion in the manufacturing sector is important for the economy because it is a signal of strong domestic demand, which will push up the growth rate and the Bank of Japan is likely to create more beasr in achieving the inflation target of 2%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Orders deserted, Figures German Machinery Orders Decline 2%

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Economic conditions in the Euro zone experienced a decline evenly, not least in such a big country Germany. Today's data showed that industrial machinery and the country's manufacturing weakened in April 2015 due to low domestic demand and orders from outside Europe.

VDMA manufacturing institute stated that the business cycle machine tools is not good. According to the survey of over 3000 companies, both small and medium scale, machining products tend to be sluggish orders in April. Figures machinery orders fell by 2% compared to the same period in 2014, while domestic orders also fell and orders from abroad fell 2%.

Trend request from inside and outside the Euro zone is quite in opposition. Order of the Eurozone soared 14% compared to April 2014. However, the increase is not able to offset the decline in the number of orders from outside the euro zone, which reached 7%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

The rate of the Euro Zone Manufacturing Sector Slower Of Estimates

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Eurozone manufacturing sector growth is slower than the previous estimate last month as the euro zone's core countries continue to experience difficulties, according to the results of a business survey on Monday. It is likely to disappoint the European Central Bank, which is trying to bring inflation to target, as the survey showed that factories keep prices in May after raising prices for the first time in 8 months in April.

To restore economic growth and tackle deflation, the ECB start buying government bonds worth 60 billion euros per month in March and surveys indicate the program has a number of effects. By Markit manufacturing PMI for May is at 52.2, below the previous release at 52.3 but still slightly above the 52.0 in April. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said that the moderate growth rate is not spektakuuler and there are a number of countries that continue to trouble. Weakening centered on a number of core countries, with the French manufacturing sector is still contracting and slow the growth rate in Germany, he added. PMI manufacturing Germany and France are at 51.1 and 49.4 respectively.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

Swiss Manufacturing PMI for May Exceed Expectations

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Strengthening exchange rate of the dollar is weighing on businesses in Switzerland, especially those working in the export sector. But the results of the data in the month of May yesterday showed that the country's manufacturing businesses are still strong enough to survive in the midst of a trend decline in economic performance.

Figures Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Swiss for April rose 1.5 points from 47.9 (March) to 49.4 (adjusted with seasonal factors). The figure was higher than analysts' estimates at the level of 48.1, though still below the expansionary level in figure 50.

For the first time since the central bank revoked Franc exchange rate ceiling of 1.20 per euro, the number of orders of goods from Europe increased. The manufacturing PMI tumbled sharply to 48 digits after the Swiss National Bank's decision on January 15 last. The Swiss currency itself is still 14% stronger against the euro than when the exchange rate peg is still valid. EUR / CHF is now observed in the range of 1,033 per Euro.

Results May PMI data could be considered in line with the latest results of the KOF report, which measures the Swiss economic outlook for the next 6 months. Institute KOF survey last March said that the national economy could avoid recession during Franc exchange rate is stable at position 1:05 per Euro, despite the growth target in 2015 is also not too high, which is only at 0.2%