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News and European Economic Review (Greece)

Greece Continue Reform

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Greece would suspend civil servants than previously planned and cut the pension fund as a budget austerity program designed to relieve anxiety creditors.

This step was taken after going through a long cabinet meeting as well lay off civil servants this year from 30,000 to 20,000. Besides the monthly pensions above $ 1,636 will be subject to new cuts.

In terms of state revenue, tax-free limit on annual income will diterapangkan of $ 6.818 compared to the previous $ 10.908.

Europe Economy News and Review

European Stock Exchange The Sunset

Thursday, September 22, 2011

European stock markets collapsed on Thursday, led by financial stocks as the issuer's pessimistic view on the Fed's economic outlook positive sentiment to remove the stimulus are disbursed by the central bank.

Observed so far London's FTSE stock index fell -4.68% to as low as 5,001.00, while Germany's DAX stock index fell -4.74% in the level of 5,187.0 and France's CAC -5.74% traded sharply lower at the level of 2,775.0.

Adding to the bad macroeconomic, reports the euro zone manufacturing and services sector contracted in September. PMI composite index fell to 49.2 in September from the previous 50.7 in August. Business activities that fall below 50.0 indicating contraction for the first time since July 2009.

Europe Economy News and Review

Central Bank is now Becoming Euro Net Seller

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Euro weakening dramatically triggered by central banks in developing countries are now net sellers currency.

Previously the bank to diversify into the euro through trade and internvensi market and strive to maintain their euro reserves, but this has turned particularly Asian central banks appear in the last few days.

On Wednesday, most banks are buying the dollar against the euro, to sell the single currency against the local currency as the global financial market panic.

This means that the euro currency will be more sensitive to negative data, along with perbalikan direction of foreign exchange reserves of central banks in emerging markets which previously had reached a total of $ 70 billion per month and about $ 25 milyarnya convert to the euro currency.

Since August, demand for diversification in the euro sharply lower, around 60% and still continues in August. This change is quite big compared to the situation since January to July.

If the slowdown in eurozone growth is continuing and the added tension of the debt crisis, it is not impossible Euro towards 1.3000 area.

IMF warning overshadowed Oil

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Oil prices steady in London session, bolstered by optimism the Fed will announce a policy for the U.S. economy passionate. However, the increase is limited by the IMF warning that the U.S. and Europe may experience a recession again. Rising oil reserves, the API version, also impose on the performance of the oil.

"It's hard to maintain positions amid global economic uncertainties," said Tetsu Emori, fund manager Astmax. "The market wants to know the plan the Fed to prop the U.S. economic recovery." Fed expected to announce the operation twist to maintain the level of long-term rates at low levels. The market also wanted to see the reaction of the Fed's Bernanke after the IMF warned the U.S. and Europe could experience a recession next year unless it can be overcome its economic problems.

Data API (American Petroleum Institute) show the increase of oil reserves as many as 2.57 million barrels last week. Investors are now waiting for data U.S. Department of Energy petroleum inventories at 2130 GMT which predicted decreased by 1.6 million barrels.

Asian Economic News and Review (Japan)

Nikkei Back Down, Stocks sluggish Exporters

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Japanese stocks in trading today (21 / 9) closes decreased. Shares of exporters again be a factor weakening the stock is also personally affected by global trade conditions which negatively considering bankruptcy fears of Greece closer. On the other hand decline in Italy's credit rating further add to negative sentiment for the European economy.

Nikkei weakened 0.2% to 8741.16 basis points. While index futures declined 53 points to 8675 basis points support level of 8643 points and resistant level of 8711 points. The broader Topix index rose 0.3% to 757.13 basis points.

Stocks that declined include Fanuc shares is down 1.4% to 11,280 yen, Komatsu's shares fell 1.1% to 1750 yen and Sumco Corp. shares fell 6.1% to 765 yen.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the movement of Japanese stocks are expected to still move to weaken due to global economic fundamentals are not conducive.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

UK Budget Deficit Swelling

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

England recorded the largest budget deficit in August since 1993 as skyrocketing government spending and reduced revenues from income tax. UK budget deficit in August, which does not include funding of the banking sector, swelled to? 15.9 billion ($ 25 billion) in comparison? 14 billion in the same period last year, according to the National Statistics Office report in London today.

Doubts about the ability of the Minister of Finance George Osborne in achieving the target of trimming the budget deficit also increased after the IMF on Tuesday lowered its growth forecast UK, U.S. and Eurozone, while warning about the need for a strong action to prevent a return to recession.

"It appears that the public finances increasingly responding to the slowdown in the economy, so that the institution must recalculate the budget likely target in 2011," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec Securities in London. "The financial sector also have increased the chances of the public launch of a new round of QE of the Bank of England."

News and European Economic Review (Greece)

Minister Admits Greek Market squeezed

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Greece is being blackmailed by the European market and did not manage a crisis quickly and decisively as it should, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Wednesday (21 / 9).

Citing Reuters, The Greek government will make an announcement on Wednesday about the austerity measures are discussed with international lenders to save the country from bankruptcy, a government spokesman said. The report is expected to be made after a cabinet meeting where the Venizelos will present a proposal for austerity measures as ordered by the European Union / International Monetary Fund.

Venizelos, who discussing for two hours on the telephone with senior officials from the EU and the IMF on Tuesday night, said that without the supervision of Troika (EU, IMF, and the ECB) state finances will slip.

The inspectors are encouraged Greece to accelerate the savings and reforms needed to liquefy than 8 billion euros of bailout money next month. "In order to further our negotiations, the steps and announcements will be made this afternoon," said deputy government spokesman Tolkas Greece Angelos told state television.

A Finance Ministry official said on Tuesday after the conference that Greece has agreed to prioritize the steps that are called "medium-term plan, in which Greece has committed to reducing the budget deficit through 2014 and sold 50 billion euros of state assets.

Greek media reported on Wednesday that the steps which may include dismissal of the accelerated state workers, pensions and wage cuts for civil servants, the increase in heating fuel tax and property tax extension.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

GBPUSD drop again below 1.5650

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Strengthening pound sterling from 1.5631 at the low point earlier this week stuck in the 1.5745 area after a period of consolidation, the currency pair GBPUSD vanish again to continue weakening to below the 1.5650 area.

The results of the BoE meeting has not taken the decision despite the expansion of QE, but keep pressing the pound sterling in line with the results of the BoE minutes showed that inflation will come down again to 2% in 2012, besides the increase in public sector lending to touch the highest point of 16 billion Pounds Sterling also hurt.

Technically speaking, the area fell below 1.5650 should trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.5500 area before heading to the strong support 1.5344. On the upside, resistance levels are located in the area of ​​1.5680 & 1.5780.

Light Crude Oil Up, Investors pursue positions

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Crude oil price movements to trading this afternoon (20 / 9) observed an increase. After being corrected this morning due to pressure from credit rating reports decline in Italy for the month of August, which brings a negative outlook for the U.S. economy. Now the movement of oil regained some strength by the expectations about the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories for last week which will be released tomorrow.

In addition, the rise in oil prices also triggered by the presence of position-taking by investors ahead of Fed meeting to be held on the following day. Opportunities rise in oil prices since investors will still have to wait for the Fed to issue a policy response that solutif in reducing the ongoing economic slowdown.

Crude oil futures rose by 70 cents to 86.40 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude rose 69 cents to 109.83 dollars per barrel.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the movement of oil prices is expected to move still limited by the support level of 85.25 dollars per barrel and resistant level of 87.02 dollars per barrel.

Asian Economic News and Review (Hong Kong)

Hang Seng in Perspective

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Amid the chaotic atmosphere of bawdy global crisis that lead to world recession, quite difficult for the Hang Seng stock index, Hong Kong pursue rebound back to levels earlier this year.

Because the index is mired too deeply to the lowest level recorded was more than 2 years under number 19,000.

But at least the Hang Seng still have a glimmer of hope to improve the level out of the negative zone. Handling of the serious intentions of Europe officials in tackling the spread of the debt crisis will continue to lift the market.

While support for a coordinated effort by central banks in the world in order to reduce the anxiety of the debt crisis of the euro zone has also been greeted enthusiastically among investors.

Plus a positive statement from the Chinese state to assist the countries debts. This signal is delivered when Premier Wen Jiabao while attending a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China in mid September.

However, the uncertainty of global economic forces will continue to block the rate increases in the index. So that this condition is very costly and it is feared the Hang Seng index will have a correction to continue the bearish trend.

The technical indicators are moving averages and MACD is in dragging the Hang Seng index (HK_HKK50) slumped to below the crucial 19,000. Because the price may have felt saturated (oversold), the action of short covering will color the Hang Seng stock exchange.

If so, the index can be lifted to an area of ​​19 600, 20 220 and 20 725 to 21 220 (61.8% Fibonacci). While the bearish trend will continue pressing the Hang Seng index to break low 18 600 to proceed to 18000, 17 000 or even up to 16 000.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

UK Banking Back Interest

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Monexnews-back London's FTSE stock index is stable on Tuesday as market participants respond to the news of London's credit rating downgraded Italy's latest is not too negative, especially after the issuer has sufficient banking stocks battered in the previous session.

Following through on Monday characterized by massive sales, the financial sector now looks cheap to sustain overall technical rebound on the FTSE index.

Observed Lloyds Banking Group recorded a best performance of the financial sector, up 1.3%, while Barclays rose 0.8% and HSBC rose 0.9%.

The next focus will be focused on ahead of Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting which lasted for 2 days, the U.S. central bank is expected to launch the third round of economic stimulus. If the Fed fails to implement measures of U.S. economic stimulant, whereas the shares could easily drop again.

News and European Economic Review (Germany)

German Producer Price Inflation Declines

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

German producer price inflation declined in August, according to data from the Federal Statistics Office. Producer prices rose 5.5 percent year-on-year in August, while economists estimate if the inflation rate remained steady at 5.8 percent in July. On a monthly basis, producer price index fell 0.3 percent compared with forecasts for no change.

Annual increase is driven by a 10.7 percent annual jump in producer prices in the energy sector. In addition to energy, producer prices rose 3.3 percent in August compared to last year. The cost of intermediate goods producers increased 4.9 percent year-on-year due to higher prices in the metal. Factory costs for consumer goods increased 3.7 percent compared to August last year.

News and reviews Economy Europe (Switzerland)

SECO Cut Estimate Swiss GDP Growth

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Switzerland today lowered 2011 and 2012 growth prospects, citing the negative impact of high valuations Swiss francs on exports and corporate investment. The federal government's expert group is projecting growth in 2011 at 1.9 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 2.1 percent.

For 2012, the expansion is estimated at 0.9 percent compared with the previous forecast of 1.5 percent. quarters of economic contraction may occur, the report said. But this expert group said if the possibility that the Swiss will not slip into a deep recession during the global economic situation does not return decreased dramatically. As a result of economic weakness, the unemployment rate in the coming years are likely to rise for the first time since 2009, said the group.

Oil Demand Outlook worry

Monday, September 19, 2011

Oil fell as investors worried about the outlook for energy demand after the meeting failed to produce a policy for the European solve the debt crisis of the euro-zone. "The financial markets want the right policies and quick to handle the debt crisis of Europe, but they do not get it. Sentiment was compounded by weak economic activity," said Christophe Barret, head of Credit Agricole research. Secretary General of OPEC, Abdalla El-Badri, state fiscal problems of Europe and the high U.S. unemployment will limit growth in world oil demand.

Investors waiting for the results of the federal Reserve's meeting on 20-21 September and the meeting of G20 finance ministers on 22 September to look for clues whether policy makers will act to restore market confidence. Analysts also see the development of Libya's production over the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere. "The recent news may be able to show Libya's oil production by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of this month," said Barrett. Meanwhile, technical analysts by Reuters, Wang Tao set $ 85.52 as oil bearish target.

News and Economic Review Asia (China)

Wu: "Chinese Economy Slows At Will Maybe Next Year"

Monday, 19 September 2011

China's economy is likely to slow next year and efforts to spur growth will be constrained by inflation and government debt burden, said Wu Xiaoling, a former deputy central bank governor.

The government does not have to expand the monetary or fiscal stimulus due to pricing pressures and the central and local government debt, Wu said in comments published today by Financial News, the newspaper's central bank. Wu is the deputy director of finance and economic committee of the National People's Congress.

Largest exporting country in the world face weakening global demand for the debt crisis of the European and U.S. unemployment. Chinese officials are still grappling with the side effects of stimulus measures in 2008 and 2009, including high inflation and bad credit risk for banks. Gross domestic product rose 9.5% in the second quarter of this year.

Slowdown next year will be caused by factors including reduced demand abroad, the steps to change the economic structure and to cool the property market, and adjustments to infrastructure investment, Wu said.

News and European Economic Review (Germany)

German Bonds Rise Related Assessment Will Greece

Monday, 19 September 2011

German bonds rose as the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been prepared to assess whether Greece can meet the conditions to rescue the nation amid fears of debt default.

Two-year German bonds rose for a second day, pushing yields below 0.50%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 1.6% and stock index futures declined in Europe, enhance the attractiveness of Germany as a haven debt. Slovakia is currently scheduled to sell bonds maturing in 2020.

German government bonds have returned 7.6% this year, according to indexes compiled by the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies and Bloomberg. Cash grew 8.1%, the index showed. Greek bonds have fallen 34%.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Housing Sector Report Trigger Rebound Sterling

Monday, September 19, 2011

In trading GBP / USD European session today (19-09) was observed moving Pound Sterling strengthened against the U.S. dollar and in the range of 1.5735.

Pound Sterling forex investors increasingly in demand in line with the indication that showed an increase in economic performance in the UK.

Latest information about the indicator Rightmove HPI m / m which was just released by Rightmove showed an increase in performance on perumahana sector in the country.

Indicators Rightmove HPI m / m was reported increased to 0.7% the previous value of -2.1%. It was responded positively by investors in forex trading.

Analyst Research Vibiz of Vibiz Consulting argued that Sterling on the currency pair GBP / USD is expected to still be strengthened in the intraday trading range is limited.

Europe Economy News and Review

Euro Debt Crisis Will Trigger European stocks sales drop

Monday, September 19, 2011

Three major European stock indexes are expected to open lower on Monday as (19 / 9) for the euro debt crisis continues to drag on market sentiment.

Citing CNBC, FTSE expected to fall 47 points, the DAX down 53 points and the CAC-40 fell 48 points. The lack of decisive action from EU finance ministers who met last Friday in Poland and the prevention of transmission in the euro zone was a concern on the market today.

The EU and the IMF will hold a conference with Athens to discuss how the country is planning to ensure the budget deficit bailouts are on track with reforms in order to receive aid the next stage next month. Greek Prime Minister to cancel a planned trip to the U.S. this week to overcome the deep crisis in his country.

Another negative sentiment is Moody's is pessimistic on the Italian austerity package. This agency predicts will give 'negative credit' for the Italian regional and local governments because it will increase pressure on local budgets are already stretched.

In the United States President Barack Obama is set to unveil its plans to reduce its public deficit by providing a savings of $ 3 trillion in the next 10 years as part of the deal which was passed in early August to raise the federal debt limit. This includes implementing the minimum tax rate for anyone earning more than $ 1 million per year, dubbed the 'Buffett's Rule'.

Gold Still Sluggish, decline in demand

Friday, September 16, 2011

Price movements of gold for this afternoon (16 / 9) terpantai weakened. Negative trend resumed after more investors have invested a majority into the stock market strengthened due to positive expectations about the European economic recovery supported by the support of the European Union and the ECB.

Spot gold fell by 1.4% to 1762.68 dollars per troy ounce with the support level at 1762.49 dollars per troy ounce and resistant level at 1782.96 dollars per troy ounce.

The weakening of the movement of gold also followed by a weakening of commodity metals such as silver which fell 0.3% to 39.70 dollars per troy ounce, platinum fell 0.7% to 1798.47 dollars per troy ounce and palladium fell 1.1% to 733 , 25 dollars per troy ounce.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the gold price movement is expected to be still engaged in negative territory and potentially weakened for this evening.

News and Economic Review Asia (China)

Europe Expected Support (financial) from China

Friday, September 16, 2011

Sympathy for the efforts the European settlement of the debt crisis continues to flow. China government has repeatedly asserted his determination to help the neighboring region.

"Our responsibility is to help Europe hard," said Chai Xiaolin, Director of Trade Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He calls that helped the euro zone out of the problem is of interest to China as well. However, Xiaolin not comment on what concrete measures will be implemented ministries.

The statement was increasingly emphasized the promise of this country the world's largest economy on debt settlement blue continent. Earlier Prime Minister Wen Jiabao committed to giving aid to countries that are struggling to get out of deficit and debt. Wen also called for the European authorities dare to take more concrete steps in the near future.

Market participants rely on the role of China, a country with foreign exchange reserves reached $ 3.2 trillion. Way that can be taken is to buy European bonds or invest directly. Despite giving moral support, Beijing has not explained the support and contribution funds.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Stimulus eclipsed Sterling Prospects

Friday, September 16, 2011

Sterling stabilized at the London session, bolstered by the continuing rise in stock markets overshadowed by the prospect of England despite the addition of the BoE monetary stimulus. However, there is now the focus of the meeting euro-zone finance ministers in Poland, which was also attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, to seek solutions to the debt crisis of Europe.

UK Business Minister, Vince Cable, called for the addition of Quantitative Easing (QE) for the sake of preventing weak demand could threaten the fragile economic recovery. BoE monetary board members, Charlie Bean and Martin Weale, also intimated the same thing that certainly can grogoti sterling performance. "Comment Bean, Cable, and Weale overshadowed sterling movements. However, my prediction will be captured in sterling 1.5700/1.5680 range of support," said Adrian Schmidt, a strategic Lloyds Banking Group. Traders predicted if GBP / USD dropped below the lowest price this week, 1.5706, then it could push sterling to 1.5485.

BoE Minutes of the meeting which will be released next Wednesday will certainly show the desire of central bankers to increase monetary stimulus. "The prospect of QE will hit sterling," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst reports. "There will be a shift in attitude that may tend to be dovish BoE."

News and European Economic Review (Poland)

Waiting for the Good News from Poland

Friday, September 16, 2011

On this day (Friday, 16.09), 17 members of the Eurozone finance ministers met in Wroclaw, Poland. Meeting time is so important because it will be attended by finance ministers the United States (U.S.), Timothy Geithner.

The main discussion is the development of the current economic situation in Europe, particularly in the region using the euro. "In the midst of the crisis varied between regions, the best solution is to create innovative programs," said Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders. Eurozone crisis helped draw attention to important colleagues blue continent, namely the United States. Barack Obama's administration began to worry if the debt issue could trigger a new recession. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sent to monitor the course of inter-ministerial meeting of the eurozone.

"We must cooperate with other countries because all members of (euro) assume the same responsibilities," explained the German minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble. European leaders had hoped the new bailout deal can be achieved in July, but the discourse was bumped parliamentary approval.

One of the agendas that can be addressed by the publishing market is the brainchild of euro bonds or bonds with the euro zone. The discussion is estimated that only touches the skin of the idea. In the event of in-depth conversation, the debate sure to be tough. Because the Germans have to adjust your mind if the interest on the bonds to a higher level because of the economic downturn in other countries.

The country that was the object of scorn, greek, must prove its commitment to get new funding. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos insisted that Greece has implemented a bailout clause as well. "(Meeting) is an opportunity for us to prove that the pruning runs on track," he said shortly after landing in Wroclaw.

Market players are now just waiting for this day whether the forum produced a concrete solution for Europe. Similarly, the presence of Finance Minister Geithner, who is expected to not only be a complement to suffer in Poland.

Europe Economy News and Review

Brown: "Under the European Bank Capitalization Too"

Friday, 16 September 2011

European banks as a whole "too much under the cap" in areas where government is limited by problems of debt and economic growth is faltering, former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, said.

The current crisis is "a more serious problem" for Europe from the global credit crisis of 2008 as three years ago the government was able to limit the problem with fiscal policy, Mr Brown said at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese port city of Dalian today. "In 2011, banks have problems, so also the government," he said.

Investor fears over debt crisis of European countries have raised the cost of borrowing funds and cause chaos in banking stocks in the region this month. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, euro yesterday urged local governments to take decisive action to restore confidence.

"European Financial Stabilization Mechanism, which is run by 27 countries of the European Union executive body is not enough" says Brown. "Substantially more resources are needed, including from the International Monetary Fund and lenders, including China," Brown added.

End of the Year, Gold Surpasses $ 2,000

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Projected Gold price movements in the future is interesting to observe. Various predictions and hopes for a long time made a lot of parties, but it takes time to prove it.

Like what is predicted by some analysts GFMS Thomson Reuters. They called the price of gold will be above $ 2000 per ounce by the end of 2011. But the Thomson Reuters analyst team recognizes that these predictions are too conservative for some investors.

"Investors should remember that at the beginning of the year seen some profit taking when the price is saturated and the stock is still enjoying the moment of rising," said Philip Klapwijk, an analyst at Thomson Reuters. European debt problems and economic slowdown led investors into safe-haven assets. The volume of gold holdings for investment purposes should ideally reach 1.000 metric tons in the second half. The amount is equivalent to a value of $ 60 billion if the average gold price of $ 1.815 is assumed throughout that period.

Furthermore, central banks across the country also supported the surge in prices. Volume purchasing authority of the government has already recorded more than 200 metric tons in the first half, or more than two times higher than the record of the year 2010. While buying gold for jewelry is also still rising even though prices are high. Sales of gold jewelry first half rose 7.5% compared to last year. Though the price jumped to 25% in the period.

On the other hand, the mining production grew 4.9% in the half year and has the potential to rise again. "The increase in production volume is a reminder that the increase has not been solid in the medium and long term," an analyst close to Thomson Reuters. This commodity will not be immune from the small corrections of any new increase.

Asian Economic News and Review (Japan)

Try to Make the weakening Dollar Yen

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Usd / JPY failed to maintain the support provided by the 76.75/80 area during the Asian session, to then move lower amid weakening U.S. dollar is widely in the European session lows to reach the new 2-week at 76.55.

As these movements, the currency pair is likely to find support at the 76.40 area (low-August 31), followed by 75.95 (August 19 low) and 75.00 (psychological level). In contrast, the nearest resistance level at 76.80 (daily high), then 77.00/10 (intraday) and 77.40 (50-day MA).

"Short-term outlook remains negative as long as prices are still stuck below the 20-day MA is currently at around 76.95," according to Slobodan Drvenica, technical analyst Windsor Brokers Ltd.