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News and European Economic Review (French)

French Q2 GDP Growth Very Weak

Friday, August 12, 2011

French economy, as the country's second largest economy in France reported no economic growth or GDP at the level of 0.00% in the second quarter, adding to concerns over the ability of countries to achieve the deficit reduction plan.

French GDP data was released under the expectation of the growth rate of 0.3%, compared to GDP growth of 0.9% on the previous quarter. Household consumption is still down 0.7% in the second quarter that hurt the overall GDP, while imports fell 0.9% and export growth remains flat 1.8% in the first quarter.

This report certainly has the potential to suppress the French who had nearly lost triple-A credit rating.

News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

Short-Selling Prohibition Boost European Stock

Friday, August 12, 2011

European stocks rose, keep the momentum of recovery after France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium to pass off short-selling ban for financial stocks. UK stock exchange (FTSE) rose 1.2% while the German stock exchange (DAX) and France (CAC) each rose 1.7% and 1.1%.

"Something must be done to stop the fall of the stock, the market is now quite emotional and fear. The ban short-selling can make the index a break," said London fund manager interviewed by Reuters. "I do not think the impact can be long term but it could give relief for a while ... as seen, shot-sellers are now beginning to move into the CDS market."

Analysts also saw the rise of the action on bargain-hunting as investors began buying stocks that perform well have fallen sharply recently. "Bargain hunters have sprung up, logically enough, especially with low valuations now. Financial statements of the company remains positive," said Henk Potts, Barclays Wealth's strategic.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

UK Construction Output Boost 2Q GDP

Friday, August 12, 2011

UK construction output grew faster than previously expected in the second quarter, boosting economic growth rate in that period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday (12 / 8).

Britain's official statistics institute said the construction output rose 2.3% between April and June compared with the first three months of this year.

That was the fastest of the 0.5% growth in construction sector accounted for the ONS's first estimates of GDP, released in July.

Revised, by itself will boost the quarterly economic growth rate of 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% of the initial notes ONS at 0.2%.

The agency also revised up its construction rate during the first quarter of 2011, falling 2.8% from 3.4% decline the previous report.

Gold corrected From Record High Margin Increase Post-CME

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Gold prices had fallen from the highest levels on Thursday after the CME Group exchange raised the margin requirements for gold contract transactions / COMEX Gold futures, however the global financial market turmoil and the fear of slowing growth is still supporting sentiment.

Observed Gold prices slipped so far -0.41% to as low as $ 1,790.37 after hitting its highest point of $ 1,814.43 per troy ounce.

Historically increase the margin required to trade significantly less likely to cause indiscriminate selling of commodities, but a large reduction occurred with the still difficult market situation is still filled with uncertainty. While this gold still proves a fairly attractive alternative investment to increase the margin might not much affect unless reasonable cause prices corrected.

Based on technical studies corrected the Golden still has the potential to an area of ​​$ 1775 before rising further.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Yen Still Trying to Test Record

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Yen continues to examine the record of its strongest against the dollar as the outbreak of uncertainty will be the global economic outlook. Investors still kept a collection of Japanese yen, although it did have intimated the possibility of re-intervention policy.

Anxiety about the possibility of intervention and the continued trend of dollar weakness will likely keep the USD / JPY in a narrow range. "Anticipation of intervention limited the strength of the yen, but it is possible USD / JPY may test the record of 76.25 which of course will depend on the direction of the stock market," said Masafumi Yamamoto, strategic Barclays. "If the record successfully penetrated and there is no intervention then USD / JPY could fall to around 75."

USD / JPY was weaker after Japan's Finance Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, state will cooperate with the global community to maintain stability. But back to continue the strengthening of the yen in early London session. Some dealers see a comment This stain is more robust, and can be co-ordinated intervention intimated though analysts still doubt the possibility. "Small chance for a coordinated intervention by the latest developments. Japan will probably go back solo intervention if the yen rose sharply after permulus appreciation. However, Japan will probably not intervene if the yen rose gradually," said Makoto Noji, strategic Nikko Securities SMBC.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Sterling 200 Day Moving Average Approach

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Sterling is still trading far below the moving average 50 days to the U.S. dollar on Thursday, struggled after the BoE cut its UK growth forecast with an increasing risk of British fiscal pruning program.

UK economy still risks attached to the debt crisis of the European zone while simultaneously increasing the rate of global growth slows. If the UK economy is still under-performance, automatic deficit reduction targets for government to be threatened sustainability. The dilemma that is the main factor Pound fundamentally depressed.

Finance Minister George Osborne will also give testimony in front of the parliament London unrest related concerns that could potentially damage the confidence of investors in the economy in London as one of the world's largest financial centers.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains bearish despite price rebounds from 3-week lows but the 1.6200 resistance level can be a good area to short sell with a tight stop loss & target the 1.6080 target, MA200. On the upside, above MA50 translucent so far traded in the 1.6220 area can bring the price into the neutral zone and wait & see mode switch to get a more clear trend.

News and European Economic Review (French)

SocGen CEO: France Not U.S.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Societe Generale CEO denies rumors that France's second-largest bank is being experienced difficulties and blame the USA downgraded credit ratings on speculation the French might lose AAA status. "Surprisingly enough, just because one country experienced a ratings downgrade then there must be other countries that will experience the same thing," said Frederic Oudea told CNBC. "It's weird thinking about the economic situation."

Oudea uttered rating agencies have confirmed credit ratings of France, and as long as France continues to maintain a balance of economic and government policy of trimming the deficit run then there is no reason to change the rankings.

Oudea also reiterate Societe Generale have only a limited risk to the Spanish and Italian banks have enough capital and the corresponding requirements of Basel III. Oudea reluctant to comment on the rumor that SocGen's largest shareholder, Groupama, need fundraising so that could ultimately affect the solvency of banks.

Meanwhile, the euro bounce back in session New York, traded away from low-level daily 1.4236 1.4102

News and European Economic Review (Italy)

Italy Trying to Reassure Investors

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Finance Minister, Giulio Tremonti, Italy will point out the reform of labor laws, sells local service businesses, and raise capital-gains tax to balance the budget and secure the support of the ECB. "Italy must overcome stiffness of the economic system," said Tremonti told Parliament.

Berlusconi's government began to consider various ways to balance the budget in 2013 as part of an effort to reassure investors that Italy can avoid the debt crisis and keep the support of the European Central Bank. The ECB began to buy government bonds Italy on 8 August after the Italian government pledged to trim the deficit; successfully reduce the yield on the 10-year-italia of 104 bps in the last four days.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, has sent a letter to Berlusconi's government last week to ask the Italian public sector employee wage cuts, liberalization of labor laws, and speeding up plans to balance the budget, and sell government-owned service companies, according to Tremonti. Tremonti reluctant to lay out the contents of the letter further but this letter speeding Berlusconi managed to push the budget adjustment policy.

Meanwhile, the euro bounce back in the New York session, was trading near the high levels of daily 1.4250 1.4293

Gold still starred although moving slow

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Gold in the evening trading today (10 / 8) recorded an increase and continues to show a new record. The increase in gold is still there although not as firm as before. Sentiment is still of concern to the U.S. economy since the shadow credit rating decline and a decrease in economic performance in the third quarter.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to 1754.55 dollars per troy ounce with a support level at 1736.8 dollars per troy ounce and resistant level of 1767.82 dollars per troy ounce.

Rising co-movement of gold followed by silver increased 1.6% to 38.16 dollars per troy ounce and palladium rose 0.8% to 746.75 dollars per troy ounce.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the movement of gold prices is expected to still likely to rise again despite not very significant, considering the majority of global stock markets rose today.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Japan's Stock Rises, Fed Policy Plan Raised

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Japanese stocks in trading today (10 / 8) recorded an increase. The condition occurs after a rebound in the last few days the stock has decreased. Rising stock movements triggered by several conditions of economic fundamentals such as the promise that the Fed will again provide regulation to lift the U.S. economy and the impact of rising crude oil prices which has now climbed to around 81 dollars per barrel position.

The Nikkei index rose by 1.1% to 9038.74 basis points. Index futures declined 41 points to 9005 basis points with the support level of 8950 points and resistant level of 9191 points. While the Topix index rose 1.1% to 9038.74 basis points.

Stocks that experienced an increase of which is the Kansai Electric Power shares rose 8.3% to 1304 yen, the stock 7.8% to 1356 yen and Inpex Corp. shares rose 2.81% to 511,000 yen.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the movement of Japanese stocks are expected to still likely to rise although not very significant, given the global economic fundamentals still unstable.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Continue weakening Sterling, BoE Give Signals Growth Risk

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Sterling slid to a two-week lows versus the euro and depressed against the dollar, and speculation that the Bank of England will cut its forecast for economic growth in the quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.

BoE Quarterly Inflation Report published in August at 0930 GMT, which will be followed by a press conference by Governor Mervyn King. BOE will announce the weak outlook for this year and next.

Pound had been hit by this week's selloff linked series of weak UK economic data, including data on Tuesday showed an unexpected decline in UK manufacturing output, has led to speculation that growth for the second quarter may be revised downward.

This will still create confidence among investors that UK interest rates will remain below the record low of 0.5 percent until well into 2012.

Some analysts argue the value of sterling to reflect this possibility, adding that any negative side, an additional effort to sterling may be limited.

Sterling slipped 0.3 percent to a session low as $ 1.6241 in early trading in London. On Tuesday, falling as low $ 1.6176, its weakest since July 21.

News and European Economic Review (Germany)

German Bonds Rise, Pushing Yield 2 Year Note Lowest

Wednesday, 10 August 2011

German bonds rose, pushing the yield on two-year to a record low since September, on speculation slowing global growth will force the European Central Bank (ECB) to delay the rate hike.

French industrial production fell more than economists expected in June and the index of the Ifo research institute of the euro area economy fell for the first time in 2 1 / 2 years. Italian records fall as a result of State to sell? 6.5 billion ($ 9.4 billion) bill, the first auction since the ECB started to buy bonds.

Two-year yield fell 10 basis points to 0.67% at 1:16 pm in London, at least since 9 September. 1.75% security maturing in June 2013 rose 0.18 to 101.95. 10-year yield fell 10 basis points to 2.27%.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Bank of England Spruce Growth and Inflation Targets

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Bank of England cut its forecast for growth and inflation on Wednesday, said the pace of growth has slowed and "vulnerability, especially in the euro area" has increased.

The projection of central banks in the latest inflation report showed inflation dipped below 2% in late 2012 and held slightly below the target level of 2% in 2013.

In the short term, inflation could reach as high as 5%, Governor Mervyn King said at a press conference. Central projection for 2011 growth of about 2%, nearing 2.5% in the inflation report in May. Pound slightly against the dollar extended losses following the report, losing 0.4% to $ 1.6242.

Gold Continues Print Record

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Gold continued rally in the London session, print a record 1779.80, as plunging global stock markets on concern the world will experience a recession after the credit ratings cuts in the U.S.. Speculators are also reluctant to do profit-taking as investors continued to hunt for safe-haven assets amid a worsening debt crisis, Europe and the U.S..

"The market is now concerned with the threat of a global recession. Bond yield increased due to anxiety and even France will be more and more members of the European Union which would be natural debt crisis," said Natalie Robertson, ANZ strategic. "The market is very concerned about the global economy and this is seen from the surge in gold prices."

Investors are now waiting for the results of the Fed meeting to look for cues whether the Fed will loosen its monetary policy further. "If the Fed gave an indication of the addition of the stimulus then gold will be able to extend rally," said Tom Pawlicki, an analyst at MF Global.

On the other hand, JP Morgan has revised the target of gold this year to $ 2,500 due to downgrade U.S. credit ratings. Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about the outlook for gold prices as a result the Fed will probably keep a low interest rate policy for a long time.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Japan Stock Slump, U.S. Stock Drop Effect series

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Japanese stocks in trading today (9 / 8) again decreased. Negative trend has occurred since the early trading this morning where the stock hit by the impact of weakening U.S. stock market in late trading last week which had fallen sharply. Speculation about the decline in the performance of the U.S. economy apparently getting stronger due to the negative economic data.

The Nikkei fell 1.7% to 8944.48 basis points. While index futures has increased by 82 points to 8960 basis points with the support level of 8651 points and resistant level of 9139 points. The broader Topix index fell 1.6% to 770.39 basis points.

Stocks that declined include shares of Mitsubishi UFJ is weakened 2.4% to 363 yen and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial stocks which fell 2.2% to 2259 yen.

According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting, the movement of Japanese stocks are expected to weaken. Investors are expected to be still awaiting the results of the Fed meeting tonight.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Ahead of the FOMC, Sterling Still in Trading Range

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

The U.S. dollar lost its way in New York trading today and weakened slightly anticipating the prospect of easing monetary expansion at the FOMC meeting tonight. Although the central bank still expected to hold interest rates at 0.25% level however, there are chances of further expansion of balance sheets in order to overcome the slowdown of recovery.

Bernanke's comments signaled if the next round of cuts should trigger a quantitative strengthening of the currency pair GBP / USD, but otherwise if there is no indication so the dollar GBP / USD may actually depressed amid expectations of monetary policy normalization.

However the BoE quarterly inflation report tomorrow is still a risk of fall in sterling due to prospects of reduced inflation below 2% target. At the same time the threat of a double dip recession also be another factor weighing on the BoE to conduct monetary expansion.

Overall, the above factors make intraday bias GBP / USD to be bearish in the short term at least test the 1.6200 area, but technically the price is still in a phase of consolidation with a potential trading range in the area 1.6475 - 1.6200, and the required penetration in one direction to get a more clear trend .

News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

Euro Still Need Germany Support, Not Only ECB

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Response currency that is quite disappointing after the last ECB move shows that the Euro still need backup from Germany, not too surprising if the euro fell again even though the program has reduced the cost of purchasing bond financing for Italy and Spain and at least reduce the risk of default for a while.

This means that politics is still a problem for the single currency Euro, German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated that it still refused to increase the size of EFSF capacity in dealing with state debts. Yet market participants are still concerned funds amounting to 440 billion euros at EFSF will not be enough to help countries such as Italy and Spain.

Technically speaking, the direction of bias is still neutral in the short term where the price of symmetrical triangle formation on H4 chart indicates the phase of consolidation and consistent penetration is still needed from the triangle area to get a more clear trend.

Nearest resistance seems he rea 1.4250, translucent over the area should trigger further bullish pressure test area 1.4300 - 1.4350.

On the bottom, turning movements only under 1.4150 area could open up new opportunities to test line lowest price reductions from the triangle in the key 1.4055 support area, fell under the area could trigger further bearish scenario in the short term.

News and European Economic Review (Switzerland)

Investors more incentive to hunt Franc

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Swiss franc again sharpen its strongest record for day-to-3 in a row against the euro and dollar as rising concerns over global economic outlook and the fall in stock markets prompted investors to switch into safe-haven assets.

Action avoid the risk of further spread in the market in recent days after the downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. by Standard & Poor's on Friday last week and the debt crisis prolonged in the Euro zone sparked investor concerns about the global slowdown, as happened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 ago .

While some analysts expect the franc, which has been recorded so far this year rose 15.3%, could reach the level of parity against the euro, although the Swiss National Bank's action in lowering interest rates and warned of strengthening franc, has raised concerns about possible intervention.

"Central banks around the world continued to race for various forms of intervention to control the exchange rate, which seemed only a temporary effect since such action did not include a clear solution to address a more fundamental," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.

SNB itself looks are still reluctant to intervene in the currency market after its efforts to weaken the franc earlier, when the crisis occurred in 2008, it created a huge loss for the central bank.

Crude Oil Futures Fall

Monday, August 8, 2011

Crude oil futures fell as much as 4.3 percent, trading near the lowest intraday price in more than eight months. S & P cuts AAA rating to AA + U.S. on August 5 in response to an agreement by President Barack Obama and lawmakers to raise $ 14.3 trillion of government debt limit. Peel oil losses after European Central Bank said it has bought Italian and Spanish government bonds.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $ 3.70 to $ 83.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $ 83.94 at 12:18 tonight in London. The contract rose 25 cents to $ 86.88 on Aug. 5 after slipping to $ 82.87, the lowest price since November 26. Prices fell 9.2 percent last week, the biggest in three months, and fell 8 percent in 2011.

Brent oil for September settlement on the London-based Futures Europe ICE fell as much as $ 3.87, or 3.35 percent, to $ 105.50 a barrel. European benchmark contract with a premium of $ 22.01 for U.S. futures, compared with a closing record of $ 22.67 on Aug. 2.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Japanese Yen Intervention Ready to Return

Monday, August 8, 2011

Japanese Finance Ministry officials say the government is ready to sell the yen back if speculators continue to spur strong yen. "The intervention will further guarantee the effectiveness and stabilize excessive movement," said Deputy Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi told NHK television.

Japan has sold yen last week to secure the economic recovery following the earthquake and tsunami. However, Japan is now acting alone, in contrast with March of coordinated intervention between the G-7. "There's a good chance to add a position to buy the yen," wrote Goldman Sachs research report. "Unilateral intervention would not affect such a large or sustained coordinated intervention."

Japan's intervention policy would be ineffective and may exceed 70 yen to the dollar for the first time, said former Finance Ministry official Eisuke Sakakibara. "USD / JPY may trade around 73 at the end of the year because the government may have to sell the yen without U.S. support," said Sakakibara is also famous for calling Mr. Yen.

News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

The euro sank below 1.4200

Monday, August 8, 2011

Euro recovery efforts triggered by the purchase of bonds ECB seems to have been constrained by the 1.4400 area, and then turned sharply lower as waning optimism about the ECB's action. So far EUR / USD has lost over 200 pips, up to hit a new daily low at 1.4150 to enter U.S. trading session on Monday.

In line with these movements, the nearest support level may be found at 1.4150 (daily low, followed by 1.4050 (low-August 4) and 1.4010 (low July 18). Conversely, the level of resistance at 1.4290/00 area (previous low), then 1.4400 (daily high) and 1.4455 (high-August 1).

From a technical standpoint, the bias remains bearish euro moved lower with the indicator below the midlines, according to Valeria Bednarik, analyst technical FXstreet.com.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

UK Shares Soar As a result of RBS, Lloyds, Barclays Gain Profit On the FTSE 100 Index

Monday, August 8, 2011

UK stocks rallied, rebounding from its biggest weekly decline in the FTSE 100 Index in nearly three years, after the European Central Bank said it would buy the bonds Spain and Italy.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group rallied more than 4%, led gains among banks on the FTSE 100 Index.

FTSE 100 up 18.02, or 0.3% to 5,265.01 at 8:32 pm in London, the first gain in seven days. FTSE All-Share Index rose 0.3% to 2,734.77, while Ireland's ISEQ Index rose 1.3% to 2,537.69.

FTSE 100 last week posted the biggest weekly loss in almost three years, even after a report showed the U.S. added more jobs than expected last month. Index slumped 9.8%.

News and European Economic Review (UK)

Pound Dragged After Failed ECB Reassure Market

Monday, August 8, 2011

Pound Sterling weakened on the stock eventually follow the weakening Euro during the European session after ECB's action failed to calm markets because the move was still below expectations of market participants.

Monitored by far the currency pair GBP / USD traded at 1.6372 or weakened -0.08%, whereas in early trading in positive territory could survive post-steps the ECB to buy Spanish & Italian bonds worth? 1 billion.

Euphoria of the market participants seem to fade quickly, where the Italian and Spanish stock market that had skyrocketed in the beginning but turned toward trading lower while the euro slumped further against the dollar and Swiss franc.

Other factors that cause weakening of the GBP / USD is the report of the German refusal to raise the capacity of EFSF, according to a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, it will not change the volume EFSF and maintaining the EU summit decision on 21 July.

Based on the study of technical, intraday bias remains neutral in the short term with an estimated range trading in the area 1.6473 - 1.6192, but we get bearish convergence on the Daily chart indicating potential bearish at least target the 1.6340 area, fell under the area can transform into a bearish intraday bias test the 1.6192 area .

On the upside, the nearest resistance is located at 1.6473 area, through the above areas should trigger further bullish momentum targeted 1.6545 key resistance area.

Gold Back Stronger

Friday, August 5, 2011

Gold rose in London session as investors hunt for the precious metal as a safe-haven assets amid a worsening global financial markets. Investors are now worried the U.S. will experience a recession again and the euro-zone debt crisis continues to spread to large countries such as Italy and Spain. Gold fell yesterday from a record $ 40 as investors perlumenjual its precious metal to cover losses on other financial assets, but falling prices have prompted bargain hunting action.

"I did not hear the Bears will come," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers. "Prices have come down too much, so it looks a bargain-hunting action. There has been no change in sentiment for gold."

"Sentiment is Bullish gold is now overshadowed by the action of short-term profit-taking," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures. "Investors are now waiting for U.S. employment data, and investors seem to have been prepared to get bad data."

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Shadowed Despite Tough Yen Intervention

Friday, August 5, 2011

The yen rose against the dollar as the increased action to buy safe-haven assets amid falling global stock markets. USD / JPY began to stay away from the weakest level in three weeks after Japan's intervention, but the anxiety Japan will intervene again limit further strengthening of the yen. "

"I think Japan is now facing international opposition if it decided to intervene again," said Todd Elmer, a strategic Citi. "However, if Japan wants its policy of intervention is successful then they need to do further action." Noda finance minister has uttered the Japanese continue to monitor the movement of foreign exchange. However, ECB's Trichet yesterday to show disapproval of the Japanese policy as he uttered, "a policy intervention must be multilateral."

USD / JPY 79.41 from 78.50 could achieve in a short time in the Asian session as the development of Japanese re-issue of intervention. However, continued strengthening of the yen after traders do not see the Bank of Japan's presence in the market. Analysts expect the USD / JPY will be difficult to survive in the top 80 again if the BoJ intervention for Japanese exporters will be interested to sell the dollar at that level.