Date: 16th December 2025.
US Stock Futures Down as Markets Brace for Delayed Jobs Report and Inflation Data.
It’s finally here.
US stock futures moved lower on Tuesday, extending recent losses as global markets prepared for a crucial wave of delayed US economic data that could shape interest rate expectations well into next year.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%, deepening losses from the start of the week. Technology stocks led Monday’s pullback, as lingering concerns around artificial intelligence investments continued to weigh on sentiment.
While AI-related volatility has dominated recent sessions, market attention has firmly shifted towards macroeconomic developments, with investors closely watching the release of the November US nonfarm payrolls report, which arrives later than usual due to the recent government shutdown.
Delayed US Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage
Today’s employment figures will set the tone for another critical release later this week, as November US consumer inflation data is scheduled for publication on Thursday. Together, the jobs and CPI reports represent a substantial portion of the ‘great deal of data’ that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised policymakers will assess ahead of their next interest rate decision in January.
The long-awaited November NFP report is expected to fill a data gap left by the shutdown and reignite debate over the future path of Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2026. The figures are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT alongside a partial update to October payrolls data.
Economists forecast a modest increase of around 50,000 jobs for November, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.4%, keeping it near its highest level since 2021. The softer outlook has reinforced expectations that the Fed may shift its focus more decisively toward supporting labour market conditions rather than battling persistent inflation. Currently, market pricing reflects two Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, assuming employment data continues to cool without triggering a sharp economic downturn.
Regarding inflation, economists expect Thursday’s report to show that US consumer prices rose 3.1% year-on-year in November, reinforcing the view that inflation remains elevated but is no longer accelerating.
Market participants are hoping for a scenario in which labour market conditions weaken just enough to justify further rate cuts, without tipping the economy into recession. Lower interest rates tend to support economic growth and asset prices but also carry the risk of reigniting inflation pressures.
Markets Embrace the ‘Bad Is Good’ Narrative
Analysts at Morgan Stanley described the current environment as a ‘bad is good’ regime, where weaker jobs data could actually be bullish for equities by increasing expectations for additional monetary easing.
‘This week’s jobs data could prove more important for equity market perceptions of interest rate policy than last week’s FOMC meeting,’ the bank noted, adding that moderate labour market weakness may be interpreted positively by stock investors.
Asian Markets Retreat as Global Rate Risks Loom
Overnight, Asian equity markets also declined sharply. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.6% to 49,383.29 after preliminary factory data indicated a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity. The S&P Global Flash PMI edged higher to 49.7 in November from 48.7 previously, remaining just below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
Investors are closely monitoring Japanese economic indicators ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday, where a widely anticipated interest rate hike could trigger volatility across global bond markets, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.
China Data Signals Loss of Momentum
Chinese markets also moved lower after weaker-than-expected November data. Retail sales rose just 1.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace of growth since the pandemic in 2022. Lending activity and fixed investment figures also came in softer, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum into year-end.
‘Overall, the data confirms a loss of momentum heading into year-end and aligns with our growth forecasts moderating to around 4% in the final quarter,’ said Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.6% to 25,211.24, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.1% to 3,825.71.
Oil Prices Edge Lower Ahead of Key Data
In early trading on Tuesday, US benchmark crude oil (WTI) slipped 37 cents to $56.45 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 35 cents to $60.21 per barrel, as investors awaited fresh signals on economic growth and energy demand.
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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
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