[b]Date: 21st August 2025.[/b]
[b]Has Gold’s Bullish Trend Lost Its Steam?[/b]
The price of Gold has been trading within a recurring price range between $3,240 and $3,456 throughout the summer months, leaving traders wondering. Has the commodity, which has witnessed one of the strongest trends of the past 2 years, lost its steam?
Most economists believe that Gold will continue to experience a bullish trend throughout the remaining months of 2025. However, technical analysis is not currently indicating upward price movement for the medium to long term. Instead, indications currently point to the range-bound condition continuing, meaning the average price will play a key role in analysis and traders’ targets.
Average Price of Range: $3,330.50
XAUUSD Daily Chart
Throughout August, the price of Gold has mainly fallen due to peace talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine keeping to a positive tone. The increased likelihood of a ceasefire would boost the market’s sentiment towards risk, pressuring the price of Gold. Economists advise that the price of Gold is likely to come under pressure in the event that the conflict comes to an end, but is not likely to fully correct the gains over the past 2-years.
Furthermore, yesterday, the US Department of Commerce broadened its sectoral tariffs, which had previously focused mainly on metals and automobiles. The new measures impose 50% duties on an additional 407 categories of imported goods, including fire extinguishers, building materials, and aluminium or steel-based chemicals. Experts caution that these tariffs could intensify inflationary pressures, as they now cover goods valued at an estimated $320 billion, up from $190 billion.
The additional cost, if put into effect, is likely to be passed on to consumers, resulting in inflation. Therefore, easing the monetary policy in the near term will become more difficult for the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve opts not to cut interest rates in September, the price of Gold may witness renewed pressure.
Currently, an interest cut remains the main likelihood; however, the possibility of a pause continues to increase. Due to the high producer inflation and new tariffs, investors are contemplating whether the Fed will indeed cut in September. Currently, the Fedwatch Tool’s possibility reading for a ‘pause’ continues to rise to 21%. This is significantly higher than last week’s reading of 7.9%. The ongoing Jackson Hole Symposium may also provide further indications of the future path of interest rates.
If a pause by the Federal Reserve continues to become a likely possibility, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict looks on track to reduce tensions. The price of Gold may break the current pattern and decline. The commodity’s main support level can be seen at $3,122.00.
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[b]Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets[/b]
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