[B]Date: 8th October 2026.[/B]
[B]Stock Market Today: German Exports Drop, Oil Tops $102[/B]
Key takeaways
German exports unexpectedly fell 0.8% in August, with shipments to the US down 6.3%.
Brent crude jumped above $102 on reports of possible US strikes on Iran and Hurricane Isaias.
Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike before year-end.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.36%, its highest since 2002.
Asian stocks fell across the board after the S&P 500 slipped from its record.
Global stocks slipped further from their record highs on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as oil prices jumped above $102 a barrel, Federal Reserve minutes pointed to another rate hike this year, and fresh data showed German exports unexpectedly shrinking in August.
The pullback began on Wall Street on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 fell 0.2% a day after closing at an all-time high. Thursday's oil spike, driven by a report that the White House is weighing new strikes on Iran, revived inflation fears and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since 2002.
In Europe, a surprise drop in German exports, led by a sharp fall in shipments to the United States, added to concerns about the region's growth as the euro hovers near its weakest level in over a year.
German Exports Fall Unexpectedly as US Shipments Drop 6.3%
German exports fell 0.8% in August compared with July, according to data released Thursday by Germany's federal statistics office, Destatis. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6% increase, making the miss a notable setback for Europe's largest economy.
The biggest drag came from the United States, Germany's most important export market. Shipments to the US fell 6.3% from the previous month. Exports to other EU countries slipped 0.6%, while sales to countries outside the EU declined 1.1%.
There were some bright spots. Exports to the United Kingdom jumped 16.7%, and shipments to China rose 4.7%. However, imports from China surged 11%, far outpacing export growth.
Overall imports rose 0.9% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €19.5 billion ($21.82 billion) in August from €21.6 billion in July.
The data adds to pressure on an economy already facing a European energy shock, rising borrowing costs and fiscal stress in neighboring France. A weaker euro would normally help German exporters, but August's figures suggest that soft demand in the US is outweighing any currency advantage for now.
Oil Prices Jump Above $102 on Iran Strike Report and Hurricane Isaias
Brent crude climbed more than 2% early Thursday to around $102.50 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose to about $90. Both benchmarks reversed the declines seen earlier in the week, when signs of recovering Middle East exports and coordinated G7 stock releases had eased supply worries.
The main trigger was a report by The Atlantic, citing unnamed officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes on Iranian targets ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. According to the report, the scope of the strikes is still under discussion, and a larger operation could follow the vote.
Several other supply risks added to the move:
Tanker attacks: Iran has stepped up strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis: Yemen's Houthis denied reports that they had lost key territory.
Hurricane Isaias: More than 500,000 barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico output has been shut ahead of the storm.
Low inventories: Saudi Aramco warned that global oil stocks are dangerously low and could take two years to rebuild.
On the policy side, the International Energy Agency said its members back faster releases of the emergency stocks pledged in March, prioritizing diesel where possible.
Fed Minutes Signal Another Rate Hike; 10-Year Yield Near 2002 High
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released Wednesday, showed that all 19 officials supported last month's quarter-point hike, which lifted the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% and was the Fed's first increase since July 2023. Most officials also judged that another hike would likely be appropriate before the end of the year, with many citing the risk of building price pressures.
Analysts said the minutes made a further move hard to dismiss, even if the Fed waits for more data first. Adding to the concern, the New York Fed reported that consumers' one-year inflation expectations have climbed to a three-year high.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, before easing after solid demand at a $39 billion 10-year note auction.It closed near 5.28% and was trading around 5.31% to 5.32% on Thursday.
A 30-year bond auction later today will provide another test of investor appetite for long-dated US debt.
Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted that, for the first time in decades, bonds now offer genuine competition for equities. She also warned that elevated investor optimism leaves stocks more vulnerable to disappointment.
Wall Street Retreats From Records; Asian Stocks Fall Across the Board
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped 0.2% from their record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%. The MSCI World Index lost 0.5%. Tech shares cooled ahead of next week's earnings season, as investors focus on whether massive AI spending will justify high valuations.
Asian markets followed Wall Street lower on Thursday, with declines in nearly every major market:
Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 69,438.77, slipping back below 70,000.
South Korea: The Kospi lost 0.8% to 6,750.25.
Hong Kong: The Hang Seng dipped 0.2% to 24,072.98.
China: The Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 3,840.03 as mainland markets reopened after the holiday.
Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6% to 8,677.20.
Taiwan: The Taiex dropped 0.7%.
Samsung Electronics shares fell even after the company estimated a 782.5% surge in third-quarter operating profit to 107.4 trillion won, driven by higher memory chip prices. The reaction suggests that much of the good news was already priced in. US stock futures were mixed.
Euro Near 16-Month Low as France's Fiscal Worries Linger
The euro fell 0.6% on Wednesday to about $1.1194 and was trading near $1.12 on Thursday, close to its weakest level since mid-2025. Pressure is coming from France, where worries about high debt and deficits have pushed the 10-year bond yield to around 4.89%, compared with 3.48% for Germany. Investors have also built up record bets against the single currency. France's finance ministry said it will not change its bond-issuance strategy.
The UK was not spared either. Britain's 10-year gilt yield rose 7 basis points to 5.44%, and the pound slipped to about $1.32. The dollar strengthened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.3% on Wednesday, while the yen held around 158 per dollar.
In other assets, gold fell 1.4% on Wednesday to about $4,104 an ounce before recovering to around $4,144 on Thursday. Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to roughly $83,460, and ether fell 4.6% to about $2,574.
Corporate News: Deere Slides, SpaceX Debt Talks, Wells Fargo Probe
Shares of Deere & Co. and other farm-equipment makers fell after the Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Agriculture launched an inquiry into industry practices, including possible anti-competitive behavior.
SpaceX is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, which would rank among the largest debt deals tied to the AI buildout. Microsoft revealed pricing for a new flagship laptop powered by Nvidia chips, claiming it beats a comparable Apple model on certain AI tasks.
Wells Fargo is under investigation by the Department of Housing and Urban Development over whether it broke fair-lending laws in a program aimed at boosting homeownership among Black Americans. In a separate incident, China reportedly obtained F-35 fighter jet parts after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment through Hong Kong.
What to Watch Today
Investors will focus on today's 30-year Treasury auction, any further news on possible US action against Iran, and the path of Hurricane Isaias through the Gulf of Mexico. With oil above $102, yields near 24-year highs and the Fed leaning toward another hike, the stock market's record run faces its toughest test yet just days before third-quarter earnings season begins.
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[B]Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets[/B]
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