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[B]Date: 23rd October 2026.[/B] [B]AI Sell-Off Sparks Flight to Safety as Oil Tops $114: What Traders Need to Know.[/B] A sharp tech sell-off on Wall Street has triggered a global flight to safety. On Thursday the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%, its worst day since June, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%. Investors poured into US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds and the Yen. Asian markets opened sharply lower on Friday but recovered much of the damage by midday, and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.1%. The risk backdrop remains tense. Brent crude climbed above $114 a barrel, and next week brings results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet alongside decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoJ. Here is what traders need to know. Tech stocks: Asia claws back early losses Asian tech stocks staged a notable intraday recovery. South Korea's Kospi fell as much as 4.1% before paring losses to trade roughly flat, as SK Hynix reversed early weakness to rise 4%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index trimmed a 1.1% drop to just 0.2%. The bigger picture remains weak, however: Nikkei 225: Fell as much as 2%, taking its weekly drop to almost 4%. SoftBank fell 6% and is down nearly 15% this week, while wafer maker Sumco dropped 7.8%. CSI 300: Fell about 1% and remains in a bear market, more than 20% below its late-June peak. Taiwan: Markets were closed due to a typhoon warning. In the US, the Nasdaq 100 is heading for back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since July. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is on track for a third straight weekly decline, its longest losing run since November 2025. Meta's spending plans revived doubts about debt-funded AI infrastructure. Is it a bubble? Opinions are split. Matsui Securities' Tomoichiro Kubota warned that the AI bubble may have started to burst, as falling share prices make it harder for AI firms to raise capital. Julius Baer's Mark Matthews disagrees, arguing that demand still far exceeds supply and that big chip corrections are buying opportunities. Blackstone President Jon Gray also rejected the bubble view, describing demand for AI as almost parabolic. Rotation into defensives Money leaving tech is flowing into defensive sectors. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index jumped 3.1% on Thursday to a record high and is on course for its best month since 1998. Utilities and healthcare also gained. Credit markets are showing strain too. Spreads on dollar bonds from higher-rated Asian companies widened to their highest since last July. Bonds: Biggest Treasury rally in over two years Treasuries staged their biggest rally in more than two years on Thursday. The 10-year yield fell 17 basis points and dropped below 5% for the first time in a month, as traders unwound bearish positions. The yield edged back up to around 4.97% on Friday. Three forces drove the buying: the AI sell-off, turmoil in French markets and renewed Middle East tensions. The rally has also led traders to scale back expectations of further Fed rate hikes. Not everyone expects it to last. ING analysts still see the 10-year yield returning above 5% eventually, given inflation, fiscal deficits and AI-related trends. They said the risk-off mood eases pressure on the Fed to hike next week. In Japan, the 10-year JGB yield fell 9 basis points to 2.77%, extending its rally to a fifth day on what Tokyo traders described as unusually heavy buying. FX: Different safe havens for different risks Safe-haven demand is spreading across currencies, but OCBC analysts note that each risk favours a different currency: AI jitters favour the yen. USDJPY dropped to 156.08 on Friday, the Yen's strongest level in over a month, before recovering to about 156.89. The Yen is set for a 0.7% weekly gain, its biggest since early September. Middle East tensions support oil-linked currencies. The Canadian dollar strengthened past 1.40 per US dollar, its firmest in a month. French fiscal stress supports the Swiss franc. USDCHF held near 0.8211, close to a one-month low. Elsewhere, the dollar index edged up to 101.64 after touching 101.44 on Thursday, its lowest since the start of the month. EURUSD was flat at 1.121, weighed by concerns over France's debt. AUDUSD held at 0.7015, NZDUSD rose 0.2% to 0.5695, and the offshore Yuan traded near a four-year high at 6.6729. Oil: Brent heads for third weekly gain Brent rose 1% to around $114.35 a barrel, building on Thursday's 4% surge. Intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised fears of wider supply disruption, and Oil is set for its third consecutive weekly gain. Notably, falling yields and a firmer Yen suggest markets are currently more worried about economic growth than inflation, even with Oil above $110. UK: Retail sales disappoint British retail sales fell 0.4% in September, worse than the 0.1% drop expected. Warm weather hurt clothing sales, and supermarket volumes fell. Over the three months to September, sales volumes still rose 0.7%. Consumer confidence in October posted its sharpest monthly fall since early in the COVID-19 pandemic. That comes ahead of next week's budget from finance minister John Healey and as markets weigh the Bank of England's next move. What Could Move Markets Next Week? The key question is whether this week's flight to safety holds. Next week's results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet will be the first real test. Strong numbers backed by clear returns on AI spending could pull money back into tech and push Treasury yields above 5% again. Another round of disappointment would likely extend the rally in bonds, the Yen and defensive stocks. Central banks add a second layer of risk. The Fed decides on Wednesday 28 October, and markets expect a hold. This week's risk-off move has eased the pressure to hike. The BoJ follows on Friday, with Japan's inflation now above target, so any hint of a December hike could strengthen the Yen further. Investors also face the UK budget and French protests this weekend, with the US midterms close behind. Hitoshi Asaoka of Asset Management One warned that this run of events could keep markets unsettled for longer than usual. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B] [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 23, 2026 USDJPY USDJPY: It's our birthday, and we're giving you gifts! To celebrate our 22nd anniversary, we are offering: Swap-free trading until the end of the month! A 220% drawdown bonus from $220! Double cashback — up to $40 per lot! Just activate the promotion, activate promo code FF22 in your personal account and get gifts! Terms Accelerating inflation in Japan strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The September core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year after 1.7% in August. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4% from 1.9%. This supports the yen through expectations of higher cost of money, although an immediate decision by the regulator is not predetermined. At the same time, concerns over artificial intelligence spending have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Purchases of Treasury bonds lowered US yields, weakening one of the main arguments for the dollar against the yen. For USDJPY, the key combination is two factors: declining dollar investment yields and more compelling grounds for further Japanese policy tightening. Against a decline in the pair are the persistent interest rate differential and the risk of renewed US yield growth due to expensive oil. At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan may take a pause, so the inflation report does not guarantee continued yen strengthening. With sustained demand for safe-haven assets, however, its fundamental advantages still allow for further USDJPY downside. Trading idea: SELL 156.90, SL 157.25, TP 156.20 Connect 101% drawdown protection and trade with double deposit! Bonus funds will help increase profits or withstand sudden drawdowns! You can find more analytical information on our website.

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XAUUSD on edge: oil prices rise, while high interest rates pose a threat to gold Gold continues its attempts to recover as markets await US economic data, with prices currently hovering around 4,100 USD. XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways Markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting Some investors continue to take advantage of price declines to increase their holdings of the metal XAUUSD forecast for 22 October 2026: 4,120 Fundamental analysis The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 22 October 2026, indicates that the fundamental backdrop for gold has shifted towards the negative: rising energy prices are heightening inflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its 27–28 October meeting, but the probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at around 91.0%. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY declines amid expectations of tighter BoJ policy The USDJPY pair is falling more sharply as the yen strengthens and technical indicators continue to give bearish signals. The rate currently stands at 157.19. Technical outlook The USDJPY rate is declining sharply, although buyers found support at the lower boundary of the descending channel. Today's USDJPY forecast anticipates a further decline towards a potential target at 156.25. The USDJPY forecast for 22 October 2026 indicates that bearish momentum is likely to persist. Read more - USDJPY Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Analysis of margin levels for October 22, 2026 XAUUSD XAUUSD: SELL 4129.72-4181.42, TP1-4078.12, TP2-3915.72. It's our birthday, and we're giving you gifts! To celebrate our 22nd anniversary, we are offering: Swap-free trading until the end of the month! A 220% drawdown bonus from $220! Double cashback — up to $40 per lot! Just activate the promotion, activate promo code FF22 in your personal account and get gifts! Terms Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00–4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating weakness among buyers. Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating strength among sellers. The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026. Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4129.72. Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4181.42. Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 14.10.2026–4078.12. Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3915.72. Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms. Sell: 4129.72-4181.42, Take Profit 1–4078.12, Take Profit 2–3915.72. Up to $20 per lot with real funds - get guaranteed income by connecting the promotion Cashback! You can find more analytical information on our website.

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