USDJPY steady: volatility fades, but risks remain
The USDJPY pair has stabilised around 148.00. Although inflation data improved slightly, market tension remains. Find more details in our analysis for 19 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
The USDJPY pair recouped losses and is stabilising
The market awaits the Bank of Japan’s decision and assesses fresh inflation data
USDJPY forecast for 19 September 2025: 148.26
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is consolidating at 148.00 on Friday amid expectations of the Bank of Japan decision. The market generally expects the key rate to remain at 0.5%, although the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike in October is gradually increasing amid economic resilience.
Core inflation in Japan slowed to 2.7% in August, the lowest since November 2024. The decline is mainly due to the resumption of government subsidies for electricity and gas, as well as price adjustments for food products. At the same time, the rise in rice prices remains the main factor of inflationary pressure: in August, the price increased by 68.8% year-over-year, following jumps of almost 100% in June and 90.7% in July.
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