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Ketegangan Timur Tengah Meningkat, Dolar AS dan Minyak Mendapat Sokongan 🌍 Tema Pasaran Hari Ini "Risiko geopolitik kembali menguasai sentimen pasaran." Pasaran global memulakan minggu baharu dengan sentimen berhati-hati selepas konflik antara Amerika Syarikat dan Iran kembali memuncak sepanjang hujung minggu. Ketegangan yang semakin meningkat telah mendorong pelabur beralih kepada aset selamat seperti dolar AS, manakala harga minyak terus melonjak berikutan kebimbangan terhadap gangguan bekalan tenaga global. (Reuters) Walaupun data inflasi Amerika Syarikat minggu lalu menunjukkan tekanan harga semakin reda, perkembangan geopolitik kini menjadi pemacu utama pasaran. Risiko kenaikan harga minyak berpotensi meningkatkan semula inflasi global dan boleh mempengaruhi keputusan dasar monetari bank-bank pusat dalam beberapa bulan akan datang. (Financial Times) Daripada perspektif ACY Research, minggu ini dijangka menyaksikan volatiliti yang lebih tinggi kerana pasaran perlu mengimbangi faktor ekonomi dengan risiko geopolitik. 📊 Market Snapshot Instrumen Sentimen Pandangan ACY 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) 🟢 Bullish Permintaan aset selamat meningkat 💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) 🟢 Bullish Disokong sentimen "safe haven" 💱 EUR/USD 🔴 Bearish Tertekan oleh pengukuhan USD 💱 GBP/USD 🔴 Bearish Momentum terhad 🛢 WTI / Brent Oil 🟢 Bullish Risiko bekalan terus menyokong harga 📈 Wall Street Futures 🔴 Bearish Sentimen risiko semakin lemah ₿ Bitcoin 🟠 Neutral Volatiliti dijangka meningkat ⚡ Ringkasan 30 Saat ✅ Konflik AS-Iran semakin memuncak sepanjang hujung minggu. ✅ Harga minyak meneruskan kenaikan. ✅ Dolar AS mengukuh apabila pelabur mencari aset selamat. ✅ Pasaran saham global dijangka memulakan minggu dengan sentimen berhati-hati. (Reuters) 🥇 Analisis Emas Harga emas dijangka mendapat sokongan pada sesi Asia berikutan peningkatan permintaan terhadap aset selamat. Lazimnya, apabila risiko geopolitik meningkat, pelabur akan mengurangkan pendedahan kepada aset berisiko dan meningkatkan pegangan dalam emas. Namun begitu, kenaikan harga minyak juga membawa implikasi lain. Sekiranya harga tenaga terus meningkat, tekanan inflasi boleh kembali memuncak dan meningkatkan jangkaan bahawa kadar faedah akan kekal tinggi lebih lama. Keadaan ini boleh mengehadkan potensi kenaikan emas dalam jangka sederhana. (Financial Times) Pandangan ACY: ● Bias jangka pendek kekal positif. ● Momentum kenaikan bergantung kepada perkembangan konflik dan pergerakan hasil bon AS. 💵 Prospek Dolar Amerika Syarikat Dolar AS memulakan minggu dengan lebih kukuh apabila pelabur beralih kepada mata wang selamat. Yen Jepun turut menerima aliran masuk, manakala mata wang berisiko seperti dolar Australia berada di bawah tekanan. (Euronext Live) Walaupun jangkaan kenaikan kadar faedah Fed semakin berkurangan selepas data inflasi minggu lalu, faktor geopolitik kini menjadi penyokong utama kepada dolar. 🌍 Imbasan Pasaran Global Pasaran saham di Asia dijangka dibuka lebih lemah selepas indeks utama di Timur Tengah mengalami penurunan berikutan konflik yang semakin meruncing. Sektor tenaga dijangka terus mencatat prestasi lebih baik berbanding sektor teknologi dan pengguna. (Reuters) Pelabur institusi dijangka mengambil pendekatan lebih defensif sehingga terdapat petunjuk yang lebih jelas mengenai perkembangan konflik. 🛢 Prospek Minyak Mentah Minyak mentah kekal menjadi tumpuan utama minggu ini. Kebimbangan terhadap gangguan bekalan dari Timur Tengah telah mendorong Brent menghampiri paras USD90 setong, manakala WTI turut mencatat kenaikan. Sekiranya konflik terus meningkat atau laluan perdagangan utama seperti Selat Hormuz terjejas, harga minyak berpotensi meningkat lagi. (Euronext Live) Bagi ACY Research, kenaikan harga minyak bukan sahaja memberi kesan kepada sektor tenaga, malah boleh mempengaruhi: ● Inflasi global. ● Dasar Fed. ● Nilai dolar AS. ● Prestasi pasaran saham. 📈 Analisis Teknikal 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) Bias: 🟢 Bullish Pemerhatian Teknikal ● Permintaan aset selamat menyokong harga. ● Selagi harga kekal di atas zon sokongan utama, momentum kenaikan masih berpotensi diteruskan. 💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) Bias: 🟢 Bullish Pemerhatian Teknikal ● Dolar mendapat sokongan daripada aliran masuk aset selamat. ● Penembusan rintangan terdekat boleh mengukuhkan momentum kenaikan. 📅 Fokus Pasaran Hari Ini 📌 Perkembangan terkini konflik AS-Iran. 📌 Pergerakan harga minyak mentah Brent dan WTI. 📌 Data PMI awal bagi ekonomi utama (jika diterbitkan minggu ini). 📌 Ucapan pegawai Rizab Persekutuan (Fed). 📌 Pembukaan Wall Street dan sentimen risiko global. (Financial Times) 🎯 Apa Maksudnya Kepada Pedagang? Tema utama minggu ini bukan lagi mengenai inflasi, tetapi mengenai pengurusan risiko geopolitik. Pedagang perlu memberi perhatian kepada: ● Pergerakan harga minyak sebagai petunjuk awal tekanan inflasi. ● Arah dolar AS sebagai ukuran sentimen pasaran. ● Reaksi emas terhadap peningkatan permintaan aset selamat. ● Sebarang perkembangan konflik yang boleh mencetuskan pergerakan harga secara mendadak. 🧠 Pandangan ACY Research Perubahan sentimen pasaran hujung minggu menunjukkan bahawa faktor geopolitik boleh mengatasi kesan data ekonomi dalam jangka pendek. Sekiranya konflik terus memuncak, pasaran dijangka kekal defensif dengan aliran dana menuju kepada dolar AS, emas dan sektor tenaga. Namun, jika ketegangan mula reda, tumpuan pelabur dijangka kembali kepada data ekonomi serta musim laporan pendapatan syarikat. Buat masa ini, kami menjangkakan volatiliti akan kekal tinggi, dan pedagang disarankan untuk memberi keutamaan kepada pengurusan risiko berbanding mengejar pergerakan harga. ⭐ Kesimpulan ACY Pasaran memulakan minggu dengan sentimen berhati-hati apabila konflik di Timur Tengah kembali menjadi pemacu utama. Dolar AS dan minyak dijangka terus mendapat sokongan, manakala emas kekal menjadi aset lindung nilai pilihan pelabur.

Pasaran kewangan global sekali lagi memasuki fasa yang sangat sensitif pada minggu ini. Walaupun data Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) dan Indeks Harga Pengeluar (PPI) Amerika Syarikat yang diumumkan baru-baru ini kedua-duanya lebih rendah daripada jangkaan pasaran, sekali gus mengukuhkan pandangan bahawa Rizab Persekutuan (Fed) berkemungkinan besar akan mengekalkan kadar faedah pada mesyuarat penghujung Julai, keadaan di Timur Tengah tiba-tiba menjadi semakin tegang. Konflik ketenteraan antara Amerika Syarikat dan Iran terus meningkat dengan kedua-dua pihak melancarkan siri serangan udara baharu. Iran turut mengumumkan penarikan diri daripada perjanjian gencatan senjata sementara, menyebabkan risiko terhadap laluan perkapalan di Selat Hormuz semakin meningkat dan harga minyak mentah melonjak pada sesi dagangan Asia. Dalam suasana ketidaktentuan geopolitik yang semakin memuncak, aliran dana kembali memasuki aset selamat seperti dolar AS, manakala pasaran mula menilai semula prospek inflasi dan hala tuju dasar monetari untuk beberapa bulan akan datang. Indeks Dolar AS (DXY) meningkat semula ke sekitar paras 100.84 pada awal dagangan Asia hari Isnin, sekali gus menghapuskan sebahagian daripada penurunan yang berlaku minggu lalu selepas data inflasi AS menunjukkan tekanan harga semakin reda. Sebelum ini, data CPI dan PPI bagi bulan Jun mencerminkan bahawa inflasi semakin perlahan, menyebabkan pasaran mengurangkan dengan ketara jangkaan bahawa Fed akan menaikkan kadar faedah dalam masa terdekat. Berdasarkan alat CME FedWatch, kebarangkalian Fed mengekalkan kadar faedah pada mesyuarat penghujung Julai kini melebihi 85%, menunjukkan kebanyakan pelabur percaya bahawa bank pusat akan terus menunggu data ekonomi seterusnya sebelum membuat sebarang perubahan dasar. Namun begitu, pengukuhan semula dolar AS kali ini bukan berpunca daripada data ekonomi, sebaliknya didorong oleh peningkatan permintaan terhadap aset selamat. Amerika Syarikat telah melancarkan serangan udara terhadap Iran untuk malam kesembilan berturut-turut, manakala Iran mengumumkan penamatan perjanjian gencatan senjata dan memperluaskan serangan ke atas kepentingan Amerika Syarikat serta negara-negara jiran. Ketegangan yang semakin memuncak ini meningkatkan kebimbangan pasaran terhadap konflik yang lebih besar di Timur Tengah. Dalam keadaan seperti ini, pelabur antarabangsa lazimnya akan mengalihkan dana kepada dolar AS kerana ia merupakan aset yang mempunyai kecairan paling tinggi dan status sebagai mata wang rizab dunia. Oleh itu, walaupun jangkaan kenaikan kadar faedah semakin berkurangan, dolar AS masih menerima sokongan kukuh daripada permintaan aset selamat. Pada masa yang sama, pasaran juga mula memberi perhatian kepada kemungkinan perubahan dalam instrumen dasar monetari Fed. Deutsche Bank berpendapat bahawa sekiranya Fed memilih untuk mengetatkan dasar monetari melalui pengurangan saiz kunci kira-kira (balance sheet reduction) berbanding menaikkan kadar faedah, langkah tersebut sebenarnya boleh memberi tekanan kepada dolar AS. Ini kerana kesan pengurangan kunci kira-kira terhadap kadar faedah jangka pendek adalah lebih kecil berbanding kenaikan kadar faedah secara langsung. Memandangkan kekuatan dolar sejak beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini banyak disokong oleh kelebihan kadar faedah AS berbanding ekonomi utama lain, pasaran masih melihat kenaikan kadar faedah sebagai instrumen yang paling berkesan untuk menyokong nilai dolar sekiranya Fed mahu terus memerangi inflasi. Bagi pasangan USD/JPY, kadar pertukaran kembali meningkat ke sekitar 162.48, iaitu paras tertinggi sejak awal Julai dan masih berada berhampiran paras tertinggi dalam tempoh hampir 40 tahun. Faktor utama yang terus menyokong pengukuhan dolar berbanding yen ialah jurang kadar faedah yang besar antara Amerika Syarikat dan Jepun. Fed masih mengekalkan kadar faedah pada paras yang tinggi, manakala Bank of Japan masih belum benar-benar meninggalkan dasar monetari yang longgar. Keadaan ini menyebabkan aliran modal terus memihak kepada aset berdenominasi dolar, sekali gus mengekalkan tekanan terhadap yen. Selain itu, peningkatan ketegangan di Timur Tengah turut mengukuhkan permintaan terhadap aset selamat. Walaupun yen secara tradisinya juga dianggap sebagai mata wang selamat, dalam persekitaran kadar faedah semasa, dolar AS menawarkan kelebihan kerana bukan sahaja berfungsi sebagai aset perlindungan, malah memberikan pulangan faedah yang lebih tinggi. Oleh sebab itu, dolar AS kekal menjadi pilihan utama pelabur global berbanding yen. Walau bagaimanapun, pasaran masih berwaspada terhadap kemungkinan campur tangan kerajaan Jepun. Kadar pertukaran kini sekali lagi menghampiri paras 162.80, iaitu kawasan yang sebelum ini mencetuskan campur tangan oleh Kementerian Kewangan Jepun. Sekiranya USD/JPY terus meningkat dengan pantas, kerajaan Jepun mungkin akan mengeluarkan amaran lisan atau mengambil tindakan secara langsung di pasaran bagi menstabilkan nilai yen. Oleh itu, walaupun jurang kadar faedah masih menyokong pengukuhan USD/JPY, risiko campur tangan kerajaan juga semakin meningkat. Pasaran minyak mentah pula menjadi aset yang mencatat prestasi paling kukuh minggu ini. Ketegangan yang semakin memuncak antara Amerika Syarikat dan Iran meningkatkan risiko gangguan bekalan di Selat Hormuz, menyebabkan harga minyak terus melonjak. Minyak mentah Brent pernah melepasi paras $90 setong, iaitu paras tertinggi dalam tempoh lima minggu, manakala minyak mentah WTI meningkat ke sekitar $84 setong, meneruskan aliran kenaikan yang kukuh. Pendorong utama kenaikan harga minyak masih berpunca daripada kebimbangan terhadap bekalan. Selat Hormuz mengendalikan kira-kira 20% daripada perdagangan minyak mentah dunia, dan sebarang gangguan terhadap laluan ini boleh memberi kesan besar kepada bekalan tenaga global. Pada masa ini, Amerika Syarikat telah memperketatkan semula sekatan terhadap pelabuhan Iran, manakala Iran pula mewajibkan semua kapal dagang mendapatkan kebenaran sebelum melalui Selat Hormuz. Akibatnya, aktiviti perkapalan kini jauh lebih rendah berbanding sebelum konflik, menyebabkan premium risiko geopolitik terus dimasukkan ke dalam harga minyak. Apa yang lebih menarik perhatian ialah semakin banyak institusi kewangan antarabangsa mula mengemukakan senario yang lebih pesimis. Capital Economics menganggarkan bahawa sekiranya Selat Hormuz ditutup untuk tempoh yang panjang, harga minyak Brent berpotensi melonjak sehingga $150 setong. Dalam keadaan tersebut, kadar inflasi Amerika Syarikat boleh kembali menghampiri 5%, inflasi Zon Euro melebihi 6%, manakala inflasi United Kingdom boleh menghampiri 7%. Keadaan ini mungkin memaksa bank-bank pusat utama dunia mengekalkan kadar faedah tinggi lebih lama atau bahkan mempertimbangkan semula kenaikan kadar faedah. Walaupun senario ini masih dianggap sebagai risiko ekstrem dan bukannya jangkaan asas pasaran, peningkatan konflik menjadikan risiko tersebut semakin diberi perhatian oleh pelabur. Pasaran emas pula kini memasuki fasa pertarungan antara faktor positif dan negatif. Ketegangan geopolitik yang semakin serius lazimnya meningkatkan permintaan terhadap aset selamat seperti emas. Namun pada masa yang sama, kenaikan mendadak harga minyak turut meningkatkan kebimbangan bahawa inflasi mungkin kembali meningkat, sekali gus membuka semula perbincangan mengenai kemungkinan Fed mengekalkan kadar faedah tinggi untuk tempoh yang lebih lama. Oleh itu, harga emas kini dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor yang bertentangan. Di satu pihak, peningkatan risiko peperangan mendorong pelabur menambah pegangan emas sebagai perlindungan terhadap ketidaktentuan geopolitik. Di pihak yang lain, pengukuhan semula dolar AS serta jangkaan bahawa kadar faedah mungkin kekal tinggi mengehadkan potensi kenaikan emas. Memandangkan emas tidak memberikan pulangan faedah, jangkaan kadar faedah yang lebih tinggi meningkatkan kos peluang untuk memegang emas, menyebabkan sebahagian pelabur memilih aset berdenominasi dolar atau bon kerajaan Amerika Syarikat yang menawarkan pulangan lebih menarik. Secara keseluruhannya, hala tuju jangka pendek emas akan banyak bergantung kepada pergerakan dolar AS dan kadar faedah sebenar (real yields) Amerika Syarikat. Sekiranya permintaan terhadap aset selamat terus meningkat tanpa disertai pengukuhan dolar yang ketara, emas masih berpotensi menguji semula paras rintangan penting. Namun, jika harga minyak terus meningkat sehingga mendorong pasaran kembali menjangka kenaikan kadar faedah, dolar AS berkemungkinan terus mengukuh dan ini boleh mengehadkan kenaikan harga emas atau menyebabkan pergerakannya kekal tidak menentu. Melangkah ke hadapan, perkembangan di Timur Tengah akan menjadi faktor paling penting untuk diperhatikan. Sama ada Amerika Syarikat dan Iran akan terus meningkatkan operasi ketenteraan, sama ada gangguan terhadap laluan perkapalan di Selat Hormuz akan bertambah serius, serta sama ada usaha diplomatik mampu membawa kedua-dua pihak kembali ke meja rundingan, semuanya akan memberi kesan langsung kepada harga minyak dan sentimen pasaran global. Jika konflik terus meningkat, risiko terhadap bekalan tenaga akan menambah tekanan inflasi dan berpotensi mengubah jangkaan pasaran terhadap dasar monetari bank-bank pusat utama. Di samping itu, pelabur juga perlu memberi perhatian kepada data ekonomi Amerika Syarikat seperti Indeks Harga Perbelanjaan Penggunaan Peribadi Teras (Core PCE), laporan Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), pertumbuhan gaji dan jualan runcit. Data-data ini akan menjadi penentu sama ada Fed akan terus mengekalkan pendekatan berhati-hati atau kembali mempertimbangkan pengetatan dasar monetari. Ucapan Pengerusi Fed Kevin Warsh serta ahli-ahli Jawatankuasa Pasaran Terbuka Persekutuan (FOMC) juga akan menjadi petunjuk penting kepada hala tuju kadar faedah pada masa hadapan. Secara keseluruhannya, pasaran kewangan global kini telah beralih daripada naratif "inflasi semakin reda" kepada "risiko geopolitik dan inflasi kembali meningkat secara serentak." Indeks Dolar AS kembali disokong oleh aliran dana aset selamat, USD/JPY terus didorong oleh jurang kadar faedah yang besar antara Amerika Syarikat dan Jepun, harga minyak melonjak akibat kebimbangan terhadap bekalan di Selat Hormuz, manakala emas terus berada dalam keadaan tarik-menarik antara permintaan aset selamat dan pengukuhan dolar AS. Dalam beberapa minggu akan datang, perkembangan konflik di Timur Tengah, komunikasi dasar Fed serta data inflasi Amerika Syarikat akan terus menjadi faktor utama yang menentukan hala tuju dolar AS, yen Jepun, minyak mentah dan emas. Semasa artikel ini ditulis, Indeks Dolar AS (Dollar Index, DXY) didagangkan sekitar 100.79, manakala pasangan mata wang USD/JPY berada pada paras 162.40. Selain itu, harga minyak mentah didagangkan sekitar $83.71 setong, manakala harga emas berada pada paras $4001.25/oz.

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US Tech forecast: the index is trading sideways The US Tech index is trading in a sideways range with no sign of a trend reversal. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive. US Tech forecast: key takeaways Recent data: US CPI came in at 3.5% in June 2026 Market impact: this data is negative for the technology sectord Fundamental analysis The annual Consumer Price Index declined from 4.2% to 3.5%, while the market had expected 3.8%. Thus, inflation came in not only significantly below the previous reading, but also better than the forecast. An additional positive signal was that core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, slowed from 2.9% to 2.6% year-on-year and remained unchanged compared to May. For the US Tech index, this data is predominantly positive. Technology companies are especially sensitive to interest rate expectations, as a significant portion of their market value is based on their expected future profits. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: optimism persists The USDJPY pair is trading at 162.38, with the yen coming under pressure from many factors. Technical outlook On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is trading around 162.38 and retains a moderately upward bias after recovering from the 161.95 area. Quotes are holding above the middle Bollinger Band, although the attempt to consolidate above 162.50 has not yet continued. The USDJPY pair remains bullish. Read more - USDJPY Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Date: 17th July 2026. Global Markets Fall as AI Stocks Slide, While Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions. AI Sell-off Deepens as Global Markets Retreat, While Oil Prices Continue to Climb Global markets ended the week on the back foot as investors continued to move away from technology and AI-related stocks, triggering another wave of selling across major equity markets. At the same time, renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors. Asian markets led the decline on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping more than 5% in its worst session since March. Taiwan also suffered heavy losses, while Hong Kong and mainland China closed lower as investors reduced exposure to semiconductor and technology companies. The weakness follows another soft session on Wall Street, where the NASDAQ underperformed after several of this year’s strongest-performing AI stocks extended their recent decline. Investors Continue to Take Profits from AI Leaders After months of exceptional gains, investors are becoming increasingly cautious towards companies driving the AI boom. The latest earnings season has shifted attention away from impressive revenue growth and towards one key question: will the enormous investment in AI infrastructure generate enough profits to justify current valuations? That uncertainty has led many investors to lock in profits after one of the strongest technology rallies in recent years. Semiconductor companies were once again among the biggest losers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) fell sharply despite reporting strong quarterly earnings, while several Japanese chipmakers also recorded double-digit losses. The move suggests investors are becoming more selective, rewarding future profitability rather than simply strong earnings. This doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the AI story. Instead, markets appear to be taking a breather after a remarkable run higher, with investors reassessing how quickly AI spending can translate into sustainable returns. Rising Oil Prices Shift Attention to Geopolitics While equities struggled, oil continued to move in the opposite direction. Brent crude traded around $85 per barrel, while WTI crude approached $80, putting both benchmarks on track for their strongest weekly gains since April. The rally comes as military tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Investors remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Any disruption to traffic through the region could tighten global supply and push energy prices even higher. Higher Oil Could Keep Inflation Elevated The rise in oil prices has also revived concerns about inflation. While recent US economic data suggested inflation pressures were gradually easing, higher energy costs could slow that progress and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Recent economic reports paint a mixed picture. Consumer spending has softened slightly, but the labour market remains resilient and manufacturing activity continues to show signs of improvement. Overall, the US economy remains relatively stable, although investors are increasingly questioning whether interest rates may need to stay higher for longer. Dollar Holds Firm as Gold Weakens The US dollar remained well supported as investors sought safer assets amid the recent increase in market volatility. Meanwhile, gold came under pressure as stronger bond yields and expectations for higher interest rates reduced demand for the precious metal. The Japanese yen also remained near multi-decade lows against the dollar, despite renewed warnings from Japanese officials regarding possible intervention in the currency market. What Markets Are Watching Next The current market move appears to be driven more by positioning than panic. Investors are rotating out of this year's biggest winners, particularly AI and semiconductor stocks, while closely monitoring upcoming earnings for signs that massive AI investments can deliver long-term profitability. At the same time, developments in the Middle East remain a key risk for financial markets. Any further disruption to oil supply could keep energy prices elevated, increase inflationary pressures, and add further volatility across global markets. For now, traders are likely to remain cautious as they balance corporate earnings, geopolitical developments, and expectations for future central bank policy. Until there is greater clarity on all three fronts, volatility is expected to remain a dominant feature across global markets. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

JP 225 forecast: the index continues to decline The JP 225 stock index entered a downtrend as part of a correction, but the pace of decline is slowing. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative. JP 225 forecast: key takeaways Recent data: Japan’s industrial production rose by 0.1% month-on-month in May Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is mixed Fundamental analysis Industrial production in Japan grew by only 0.1% month-on-month in June, compared to the forecast of 0.5%. The previous reading also stood at 0.5%. As a result, the actual data came in noticeably weaker than expected and indicates a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity growth. The initial reaction in the JP 225 may be negative. Weak industrial production figures could heighten concerns about the state of the Japanese economy and the sustainability of domestic demand. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure despite weak US inflation XAUUSD quotes are correcting after testing a key resistance level, while market participants assess the impact of slowing US inflation. Prices currently stand at 4,032 USD Technical outlook XAUUSD quotes continue to consolidate within a Triangle pattern, remaining below the EMA-65, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. The baseline XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a downward momentum, with the nearest target at 3,945 USD. In the short term, XAUUSD remains under pressure, as quotes continue to trade below the EMA-65 and remain within the bearish Triangle pattern. Read more - Gold Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Date: 16th July 2026. Can you please share the most recent response you received for this case? Global financial markets in mid-July 2026 were once again filled with challenges. The combination of geopolitical risks and uncertainty regarding the direction of US monetary policy was the main focus. Various factors, ranging from threats from Iran to statements by central bank officials, now have the potential to move the gold and currency markets in the coming days. Middle East Geopolitical Dynamics Tensions in the Middle East remain a focus for market participants. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a stern warning to Washington through the Tasnim news agency. Iran stated that the memorandum of understanding with the United States is valid only as long as its national interests are protected. Conversely, if any violations occur, Iran threatened to suspend all obligations and take retaliatory measures. This situation certainly boosted demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the US dollar, in the short term. Meanwhile, more positive news came from Rome. Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon were reportedly progressing smoothly. The two sides have reached a preliminary agreement to establish two pilot zones as a first step towards troop withdrawal. However, this process will still require several days to reach final preparations. Fed Policy Amid Inflation Uncertainty Federal Reserve officials have given mixed signals regarding the direction of interest rates. Christopher Waller, in a Senate confirmation hearing, emphasised that the price stability target has not been achieved. Therefore, the Fed will continue to evaluate all policy tools to maintain economic growth. Waller is also optimistic that investment in artificial intelligence will support job growth despite medium-term challenges. On the other hand, New York Fed President John Williams acknowledged that inflation remains too high. However, he sees optimistic signs that inflation may have passed its peak. He projects inflation will decline to 3.25% by the end of this year. Williams also added that the US labour market remains resilient, with unemployment projected at around 4.0%. Signals from the US and Canadian Economy Recent economic data has shown interesting movement. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.3% in June, the largest decline since April 2025. This figure far exceeded market expectations. The decline was driven by lower energy costs. However, investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to drive price increases in some sectors, leaving the possibility of further interest rate hikes open. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada chose to maintain its interest rate at 2.25%. This decision was made at its sixth consecutive meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem believes the current interest rate level is appropriate to support Canada’s economic recovery. However, the central bank remains vigilant about the impact of Middle East tensions and US trade policy. Beige Book Economic Activity Report The latest Beige Book report shows a moderate increase in economic activity across nearly all Federal Reserve districts. Consumer spending recorded a slight increase, pressured by fuel prices. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector grew fairly steadily, primarily due to strong demand in the defence industry and data centres. However, supply chain disruptions remain a challenge that requires attention. Upcoming Economic Agenda Investors should pay attention to several important events that could trigger market volatility: UK GDP (May): To be released at 2:00 PM WIB. SNB Minutes: Scheduled for 3:30 PM WIB. US Retail Sales (June): Key data release at 8:30 PM WIB. US Pending Home Sales: Data will be released at 10:00 PM WIB. Fed Officials' Speeches: Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak at 12:30 AM WIB, followed by Jeff Schmid at 1:25 AM WIB. Strategic Conclusion The current market landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. Unresolved geopolitical tensions, coupled with the Fed's dynamic policy signals, require high vigilance. Furthermore, tonight's release of US retail sales data will be a major catalyst for price movements. Stick to your classic technical discipline in managing risk in the bond, gold, and major currency markets. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Ady Phangestu HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Hi Kesk and everyone! Thank you for all the perfect work!!! I have 2 small questions that I really need some help. 1. The 2 patches in the 1st post Kesk gave. I downloaded TSA and installed for no problem. But the Terra one seems not working. I use Chrome and keeps telling me FILES DOESNT EXIST 2. Once I got the TERRA, do I need to install every single TERRA UPDATE one by one? or just the newest update would be fine? In the updates links, I couldn't find TI.exe file. There is only update file. Is that what cause my TI is locked in the TSA? Thank you so much for the help !!!