FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 14, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

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The euro is supported by firmer expectations regarding ECB policy. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September, as eurozone inflation remains above target and the economy grew more strongly than expected in the second quarter. This combination limits the case for a rapid shift toward a softer policy stance and supports the European currency.

At the same time, the US dollar has lost momentum following July producer price data, which showed no monthly increase despite market expectations for a rise. Combined with moderate consumer inflation, this reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 35%. Lower rate expectations reduce the dollar’s interest rate advantage and create conditions for a recovery in EURUSD.

The main risk to this scenario comes from today’s US retail sales data. A strong reading could revive demand for the dollar and partly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Until the release, however, the euro retains an advantage due to the combination of firmer ECB expectations and reduced expectations for a US rate hike. If this backdrop persists, the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1535, SL 1.1510, TP 1.1590

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AI Drives #NQ100 Higher Again: NVIDIA and Micron Lead the Sector

The U.S. technology sector received fresh support from artificial intelligence-related companies. On August 12, the Nasdaq gained around 0.5%, although the index remains approximately 0.4% below last Friday’s closing level since the beginning of the current week. At the same time, the Nasdaq rose 5.2% last week, highlighting continued strong interest in the technology sector.

NVIDIA and Micron were at the center of attention. NVIDIA (#NVDIA) shares rose by around 3%, while Micron (#Micron) gained nearly 5%. Investors are increasing their positions in chipmakers again amid sustained demand for data-center equipment and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Key Drivers of Technology Sector Growth:

• AI demand remains strong. Major technology companies continue to increase spending on data centers and computing capacity. This supports expectations for further growth in NVIDIA processor sales and demand for Micron server memory.
• Investors are returning to semiconductor stocks. After the recent correction, chipmakers are once again attracting buyers. The market is becoming more selective, but companies directly benefiting from the expansion of AI infrastructure remain among investors’ favorites.
• Lower pressure from the Fed. Softer U.S. inflation data reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in September. Lower rate expectations traditionally support high-valued technology stocks and increase demand for #NQ100.

According to FreshForex analysts, the base-case scenario for #NQ100 remains further growth. Demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, while the lower probability of another Fed rate hike provides additional support for the technology sector. If NVIDIA and Micron continue to strengthen, the index could maintain its upward momentum and test new local highs.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 17, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

 

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The pound enters Monday with support from the latest UK economic data. June GDP grew more strongly than expected, while previously released business activity indicators pointed to an improvement in the services sector. This reduces concerns about a sharp slowdown in the UK economy and allows the market to maintain a more resilient assessment of the British currency’s outlook.

At the same time, the US dollar lost some support after an unexpected decline in US retail sales and more moderate inflation readings. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has fallen noticeably, while UK short-term interest rates remain elevated. For GBPUSD, this combination reduces pressure from the interest rate differential and supports demand for the pound.

The main constraint is the approach of important UK inflation and labor market data, which could change expectations for Bank of England policy. The upside potential therefore does not appear one-sided. Nevertheless, there is currently no strong local factor weighing on the pound, while the softer US dollar impulse coincides with resilience in the UK economy. If these conditions persist, the bias remains toward a moderate rise in GBPUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3540, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3620

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50

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Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.

At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.

Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50

 

#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930

 

#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.

Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930

 

#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

 

Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.

The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.

Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60