FreshForexTeam

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026 XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50 Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code INDOINVEST10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only. Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets. At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance. Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50 #SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930 #SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities. Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500. Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930 #BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60 Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices. The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent. Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 14, 2026 EURUSD Event to watch today: 15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index EURUSD: Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code INDOINVEST10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only. The euro is supported by firmer expectations regarding ECB policy. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September, as eurozone inflation remains above target and the economy grew more strongly than expected in the second quarter. This combination limits the case for a rapid shift toward a softer policy stance and supports the European currency. At the same time, the US dollar has lost momentum following July producer price data, which showed no monthly increase despite market expectations for a rise. Combined with moderate consumer inflation, this reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 35%. Lower rate expectations reduce the dollar’s interest rate advantage and create conditions for a recovery in EURUSD. The main risk to this scenario comes from today’s US retail sales data. A strong reading could revive demand for the dollar and partly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Until the release, however, the euro retains an advantage due to the combination of firmer ECB expectations and reduced expectations for a US rate hike. If this backdrop persists, the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD. Trading idea: BUY 1.1535, SL 1.1510, TP 1.1590

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 12, 2026 USDJPY Event to watch today: 15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index USDJPY: Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code INDOINVEST10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only. The yen has weakened again after much of the impact from the recent coordinated actions by Japan and the United States in the foreign exchange market faded. At the same time, market participants have become more willing to price in the possibility of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike, which has supported short-term Japanese government bond yields. This factor limits pressure on the yen but has not yet changed the broader backdrop. For USDJPY, the difference in interest rate expectations between the two countries remains important. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while the market is not ruling out a Federal Reserve rate hike in September ahead of the US inflation release. Until the Bank of Japan signals a faster tightening cycle, the yield advantage remains with the dollar and continues to support the pair. The main constraint on further gains is the risk of another response from the Japanese authorities following the recent large-scale support for the yen. A softer US Consumer Price Index could also quickly push yields lower and renew pressure on the dollar. The upside scenario for USDJPY therefore requires caution, but ahead of the data, the current combination of interest rate expectations and yen weakness still gives a moderate advantage to the BUY scenario. Trading idea: BUY 159.30, SL 159.00, TP 159.90

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 10, 2026 GBPUSD GBPUSD: Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code INDOINVEST10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only. The pound begins the new session with moderate support from fresh UK labor market data. The REC/KPMG survey showed signs of stabilization in hiring in July and faster growth in starting salaries. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions and keeps the Bank of England focused on price pressures, but it does not yet provide GBPUSD with a strong independent bullish driver. Following weak US employment data, the dollar lost some of its advantage, although demand for the US currency is recovering moderately at the start of Monday’s session. US Treasury yields are edging higher, while the market is reluctant to extend Friday’s repricing of Federal Reserve expectations ahead of the July inflation report. For the pound, this creates renewed pressure despite more resilient signals from the UK labor market. The Bank of England is keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, so the pound’s next move will depend on whether upcoming data confirm economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure. For now, the fresh UK factor only limits downside pressure and does not outweigh the current US dollar impulse. Under the baseline scenario, the bias remains toward a moderate decline in GBPUSD during the session. Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2026 USDJPY Event to watch today: 15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change 17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI USDJPY: The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization. Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time. Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo’s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades. Slower growth in Japan’s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario. Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 3, 2026 EURUSD Event to watch today: 17:00 EET. USD — ISM Manufacturing Index EURUSD: The euro remains supported after the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged in July. Maintaining the existing policy settings gave the market no reason to expect immediate monetary easing, allowing the single currency to retain some demand. However, the Federal Reserve’s rate remains higher, and the European backdrop alone is not strong enough to generate sustained gains. Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time. The main driver of the current session is US dollar weakness following confirmed coordinated operations by the United States and Japan to support the yen. Pressure on the dollar has spread beyond USDJPY: the US Dollar Index remains lower after a notable weekly decline, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen. This combination supports EURUSD despite the interest rate differential remaining in favor of the United States. The market is awaiting US manufacturing activity data, which could alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. A strong report may restore some demand for the dollar, but until its release, the weakening impulse in the US currency remains dominant. If the current fundamental backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in EURUSD. Trading idea: BUY 1.1530, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1605

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 31, 2026 USDJPY USDJPY: The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1%, providing the market with no new reason for a sustained strengthening of the yen. One board member supported a rate increase, while the central bank maintained the possibility of further action if inflation risks intensify. However, the decision to leave the rate unchanged supported a recovery in USDJPY after the sharp decline during the previous session. Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time. The interest rate differential remains the main factor supporting the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s rate stands within the 3.50–3.75% range, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains above 4.6%. Under these conditions, interest rate differential trades remain attractive, while the absence of immediate tightening by the Bank of Japan limits demand for the yen. The main risk to the USDJPY buying scenario remains confirmed action by the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market and the possibility of renewed intervention if the yen weakens again. This factor could trigger a sharp reversal, meaning that the pair’s upside potential is not one-sided. Nevertheless, following the Bank of Japan’s decision, the current fundamental momentum continues to favor a further recovery in USDJPY. Trading idea: BUY 160.80, SL 160.25, TP 161.90

The calm before the storm: Crypto is preparing for its next move As of July 29, 2026, the cryptocurrency market remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. BTCUSD is trading around $63,700, ETHUSD near $1,900, and SOLUSD at approximately $73. Open interest continues to rise while funding rates remain neutral, suggesting that traders are building positions without committing to a clear market direction. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen into the 34–38% range — a level that has historically preceded significant price moves. The longer the market stays quiet, the stronger the eventual breakout could be. Our Summer 202% Drawdown Bonus on deposits of $202 or more has been extended!. Enter the promo code July202 in your Client Area and claim your bonus! BTCUSD: Institutional investors remain cautious. Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains inconsistent. Strong inflows recorded on July 20–22 were followed by outflows on July 23–24, while net outflows narrowed to $11.6 million on July 27. Although selling pressure has eased, there is still no clear sign of sustained institutional buying. ETHUSD: Strong technology, weak demand. Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin. After $70.7 million in ETF outflows on July 24, funds attracted only $11.7 million on July 27, indicating that investors are returning cautiously. The Fusaka network upgrade launched in May has significantly improved Ethereum’s scalability, but stronger technology alone has not yet been enough to offset the market’s limited appetite for risk. SOLUSD: Risk appetite remains the key driver. Solana continues to attract institutional interest, with cumulative inflows into SOL ETFs reaching $1.14 billion. However, only $1 million of new inflows was recorded on July 27, highlighting the market’s cautious stance. Historically, Solana tends to react more aggressively to changes in investor sentiment, making Bitcoin’s next move a key factor for SOLUSD. What could move the market? Today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to be the main catalyst for cryptocurrency markets. Investors are split between expectations of unchanged rates and the possibility of a more hawkish policy stance. However, the accompanying statement may prove even more important than the decision itself, as it will influence both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. A more dovish tone could support Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and lift Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) alongside it. Conversely, a hawkish message or a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger another wave of selling across the crypto market. According to FreshForex analysts, today’s calm should not be mistaken for inactivity — it may simply be the market preparing for its next major move. Experienced traders know that periods of low volatility often create the foundation for the strongest trends. Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time If you want to be ready when volatility returns, now is the perfect time to strengthen your trading account. Use the promo code July202 to receive a 202% Drawdown Bonus on deposits of $202 or more.

Analysis of margin levels for July 28, 2026 XAUUSD XAUUSD: SELL 4073.95–4124.95, TP1–4023.05, TP2–3864.95. • Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The highest volume concentration for the current contract lies within the 4055.00–4105.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength. Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time. • Medium-term trend: bearish (short). The highest volume concentration for the medium-term trend lies within the 4040.00–4055.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is occurring within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty. • The zone for favorable selling prices (based on margin requirements) is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, calculated from the low of July 24, 2026. • Lower boundary of the 1/4 zone: 4073.95. • Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone: 4124.95. • Intraday targets: breaking the low of July 24, 2026 (4023.05). • Medium-term goals: test of the lower limit of GWCZ-3864.95. • Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern. • Sell: 4073.95–4124.95, Take Profit 1–4023.05, Take Profit 2–3864.95.