FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The euro enters the session amid mixed expectations ahead of the ECB meeting. Higher energy prices are supporting expectations of a further rate increase. However, a survey of eurozone companies points to slower expected growth in selling prices and wages. This reduces the urgency of additional monetary tightening and limits independent support for the European currency.

The US dollar is driving the market during the current session. The currency remains close to a one-week high, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has approached 4.6%. Fluctuations in oil prices and tensions in the Middle East are increasing inflation risks. As a result, the market remains cautious about a rapid easing of Federal Reserve policy, supporting demand for the dollar.

For EUR/USD, the timing of these factors remains decisive. A possible ECB rate increase relates to future meetings and has not yet received clear new confirmation, while elevated US Treasury yields are already supporting the dollar during the current session. In the absence of a strong local catalyst from the eurozone, the fundamental base case continues to favor a decline in the pair.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1415, SL 1.1440, TP 1.1355

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 23, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000

The overall wave structure for Bitcoin remains unchanged. During the previous trading session, buyers attempted to continue their slow but steady advance. However, they were unable to maintain the upward momentum.

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The rally stalled and was followed by a modest pullback. For now, the market remains in consolidation, but Bitcoin is expected to resume its advance in the near term, as the broader technical picture continues to favor the bulls.

The outlook still calls for further upside as Wave 3 of the developing bullish impulse unfolds. Therefore, long positions continue to offer the most attractive trading opportunity.

Investment idea: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 24, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USDJPY is holding near 163.80 after the yen weakened to an almost 40-year low, although the fundamental case for further gains has become less one-sided. Japan’s finance minister stated that the authorities were prepared to take decisive action in the foreign exchange market, while the US Treasury highlighted the undesirability of excessive volatility and the need for further steps from the Bank of Japan.

Support for the dollar remains substantial. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is above 4.7%, Federal Reserve expectations have become more restrictive, and oil prices above $100 are increasing inflation and import-related risks for Japan. The interest rate differential continues to weigh on the yen, meaning that verbal warnings alone may not be enough to produce a sustained recovery.

However, the current session is marked by a fresh official signal and the exchange rate’s proximity to levels at which the likelihood of practical action by the Japanese authorities rises considerably. The dollar’s additional upside is limited by the risk of a sharp reduction in interest rate differential trades, while any response to intervention could be swift. The local Japanese factor may therefore outweigh the broader dollar impulse, and the baseline scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY.

Trading idea: SELL 163.80, SL 164.15, TP 162.95