Timingsolution & Nifty Updates - 3

[⭐ kesk]

In Terra, they have introduced a new module called AI Agent and this requires a subscription, by a separate login window. So dont expect this module to be working in the upcoming versions!

[pratap]

thank you for information

sir

[AonoL]

Hello All & Mr Kesk in special particular.

Here I offer some insight and feedback on TS:

Having used TS for some years, I am yet to decide that it is useful in actually making money from trading.For new users, it is a mistake to think that simply pressing a button leads to a successful forecast or ability to make money.

I think the usefulness of the software is its use as a tool to compare the mathematical goodness of fit between two data sets, one of which does not necessarily need to be stock market data. You could think that if two data sets have a longtime high correlation this will continue into the future, and this is the basis of this software’s “projection line’ technique.

The new feature of “ÄI Expert” is in my opinion, more marketing than major analysis advance. I have tested it out, and it is not “artificial intelligence” in any modern sense: what it actually is, is the equivalent of a macro or an old style MS-DOS “.bat” (batch) file. ie. By pressing that single button, it runs a fixed and predetermined sequence of the analyses modules that already exist elsewhere in the program with an added fixed text based “interpretation’ which is only really the author’s own descriptive words of the outcome rather than any real generative AI. You can get the same results by running the modules individually.

My review of the quality of these results is that they are not impressive, often indeterminate, and left up to the users own interpretation.

The problem with this approach is that the standardised batch process is “vanilla”: i.e. it is similar output whichever instrument you run the software on and the results are only a mediocre correlation. As an example, with almost any of the instruments, the “Ëxpert” produces a medium correlation with the Venus Astro cycle, but when reviewed to the naked eye, it is not a particularly good or useful correlation.

A really functioning AI would give vastly different outputs with differing instruments as inputs.

To make the most of this still powerful software tool what is actually required is “RI” ie. Real (human) Intelligence: that means use the software to make easy work of the otherwise complicated mathematical analysis of your own learning and human interpretation of what correlation is likely to help in your trading.

 

I give this information to readers as a realistic and real-world feedback, so less experienced people are not unrealistically feeling left out without access to this new “feature”.

I am not saying the software is not useful in someway, I just do not think it is useful in a direct way to make money from trading.

[⭐ kesk]

Well, a thought provoking write-up indeed. I have been saying the same thing for many years now. In the authors own words, it gives about 10% edge in forecasting, nothing more. So, dont put too much reliance on the software and use your discretion.

The AI part is just opportunistic since we are in the age of AI and AI Agents so be careful on that part too.

[itsmeok]

If you want long term cycles, learn McWhirter, learn Gann, learn Sepharial, learn George Bayer.

If you want shorter term cycles, use TS like fast cycles, and spectrum viewer.

The problem with cycles and TS is that you cannot approach forecasting with cycles in a static method. You must always apply and orb to your cycles and you must always be looking alternative waves.

Gann works, his methods and those of 100 years ago works. TS default settings don't work at forecasting Gann. But they WILL help you find cycles, or even confirm your cycle being valid or not through its periodogram.

You can't learn this overnight. SO, take it easy. Pick up a book on Gann, and start to work out each of his methods one by one. Then you will see how TS fits perfectly into this.

 

TS is not a black box. You must learn cycles and forecasting and then TS will fill many gaps and make many jobs easier.

[⭐ dynastic]

15 hours ago, itsmeok said:

Quote

Gann works, his methods and those of 100 years ago works.

What is the orb method and if Gann works, why did he die a poor man as proven by his estate sale.

[itsmeok]

6 hours ago, dynastic said:

What is the orb method and if Gann works, why did he die a poor man as proven by his estate sale.

If you focus on that, you won't understand Gann.

 

His estate was valued at roughly 1.1m in today's terms. A lot more than many members in this forum. The stories of Jesse Livermore were that he accumulated over 1 billion in profits in his time.

 

He too died broke, actually bankrupt by the time of his suicide.

 

Gann wrote about Livermore in his work. He made public note that when Livermore needed money Gann gave it to him, and when Gann needed money Livermore gave it to him.

 

They were honorable people. Focusing on their estate at death? You'll never understand Gann and I can see you might understand nothing of Gann by the way you speak. I just purchased Ganns new Astro Course.  I've studied Gann for over a decade. Would you dare purchase his work to continue learning?

 

I speak with authority when I tell you that Gann works. Just because you don't understand it, or his estate was 'poor man', doesn't discredit his work.

 

Like I said. 1.1m is likely more than most in this forum will die with.

 

Gann was a believer of living life now as if you were already in heaven. Gann was one of the first people to own his very own private airplane, his Pilot was Elinor Smith. Do you fancy to hire your own pilot, for your personal planes?

He was also said to own a winter home in Miami Florida. And boats. 

 

Again, likely more than the community here will ever own.

It is also And Gann did more for the trading community of today than anyone has ever. 

 

Take a step back. Stop trying to learn 'timing solutions' if you don't even have the basics of cycles down pat. Timing Solutions isn't for beginners. It's complicated as hell, and a bloody good resource for those that know how to use it (even beyond the developers own knowledge base).

[nefre821]

9 hours ago, itsmeok said:

Si te centras en eso, no entenderás a Gann.

 

Su patrimonio estaba valorado en aproximadamente 1,1 millones de dólares en términos actuales. Mucho más que muchos miembros de este foro. Se dice que Jesse Livermore acumuló más de mil millones de dólares en ganancias durante su vida.

 

Él también murió arruinado, prácticamente en bancarrota en el momento de su suicidio.

 

Gann escribió sobre Livermore en su obra. Hizo público que cuando Livermore necesitaba dinero, Gann se lo daba, y cuando Gann necesitaba dinero, Livermore se lo daba.

 

Eran personas honorables. ¿Concentrándose en su patrimonio al morir? Nunca entenderás a Gann, y por tu forma de hablar, veo que quizá no entiendas nada de Gann. Acabo de comprar el nuevo Curso de Astronomía de Gann. Llevo más de una década estudiando a Gann. ¿Te atreverías a comprar su obra para seguir aprendiendo?

 

Hablo con autoridad cuando les digo que Gann funciona. Que no lo entiendan, o que su patrimonio fuera de baja calidad, no desacredita su trabajo.

 

Como dije, 1,1 millones es probablemente más de lo que la mayoría de las personas en este foro están dispuestas a recibir para morir.

 

Gann creía en vivir la vida como si ya estuvieras en el cielo. Gann fue uno de los primeros en tener su propio avión privado, pilotado por Elinor Smith. ¿Te gustaría contratar a tu propio piloto para tus aviones?

También se decía que tenía una casa de invierno en Miami, Florida. Y barcos. 

 

De nuevo, probablemente más de lo que la comunidad aquí jamás podrá poseer.

Y Gann hizo más por la comunidad comercial actual que nadie jamás. 

 

Da un paso atrás. Deja de intentar aprender "soluciones de tiempo" si ni siquiera dominas los fundamentos de los ciclos. Soluciones de Tiempo no es para principiantes. Es extremadamente complicado y un recurso excelente para quienes saben usarlo (incluso más allá de la base de conocimientos de los desarrolladores).

But you didn't answer the question, "What is the orb method?" Or maybe you're the typical one, who wants to generate interest in the topic so you can sell something that you know you don't even understand, but needs to sell in order to make a living.

[⭐ kesk]

I would discourage these kinds of ill-thought discussions. Everyone has their beliefs and methods, no one is forcing anyone to accept them. Instead of wasting time on fruitless discussions, do something better pls. 

[nefre821]

7 hours ago, kesk said:

I would discourage these kinds of ill-thought discussions. Everyone has their beliefs and methods, no one is forcing anyone to accept them. Instead of wasting time on fruitless discussions, do something better pls. 

I'm sorry if the topic bothers you @kesk, but I think if I can prevent someone from getting scammed by buying from a gossipy, it's necessary for me to give my opinion.

Edited Thursday at 11:24 PM by nefre821

[itsmeok]

9 hours ago, nefre821 said:

But you didn't answer the question, "What is the orb method?" Or maybe you're the typical one, who wants to generate interest in the topic so you can sell something that you know you don't even understand, but needs to sell in order to make a living.

  You can learn about orbs from Ray Merriman if you so wish. You may be able to find a copy, it's a good book on cycles and explains the ORB, https://www.amazon.com.au/Merriman-Market-Cycles-Basics-Raymond/dp/0930706218.

 

The reason I'm telling you to research this is because the way your talking is like saying baking a cake doesn't work, simply because you don't know how to cook.

[itsmeok]

1 hour ago, nefre821 said:

I'm sorry if the topic bothers you @kesk, but I think if I can prevent someone from getting scammed by buying from a gossipy, it's necessary for me to give my opinion.

An opinion on the matter doesn't mean you understand the matter, or come from authority to discuss said topic. I agree with Kesk. Stick to what you know and go buy some books. Prove to yourself through study if it works or not.

[nefre821]

3 hours ago, itsmeok said:

An opinion on the matter doesn't mean you understand the matter, or come from authority to discuss said topic. I agree with Kesk. Stick to what you know and go buy some books. Prove to yourself through study if it works or not.

Most of the information is now free, no need to buy it. It's here for anyone interested.

Merriman-on-Market-Cycles-The-Basics-PDF.pdf

[⭐ dynastic]

On 4/24/2025 at 4:07 PM, itsmeok said:

I've studied Gann for over a decade.

Yes sadly this is the same old story about Gann. The life long quest for holy grail which will keep the reader buying more cryptic magic puzzle books and courses for rest of his life.

 

On 4/24/2025 at 4:07 PM, itsmeok said:

His estate was valued at roughly 1.1m in today's terms.

Thank you, I think you answered the question about Gann and why this so called 'best trader' should be avoided.

 

Now for Ray and his Orb theory (cycle length can fluctuate with 1/6th range)... it is true cycle can fluctuate but I also call this trading book authors perfect "large margin for error"

 

On 4/24/2025 at 4:07 PM, itsmeok said:

An opinion on the matter doesn't mean you understand the matter, or come from authority to discuss said topic. 

Prove to yourself through study if it works or not.

Ok, let's test his research about cycles. I think the orb theory should become apparent.

Let us check his Gold cycles first, since it is the current most hyped bull market asset.

First we will check medium term daily Gold data 1975 until 2025, we will look for his cycles < 3 years.

You see there is many cycles detected. I choose only Ray's cycles. None of this shows consistent, correlated cycle to Gold price. Maybe his first 50 week cycle (350d) exist with 9 win and 5 loss, but will you trade this 0.7% correlation 🤣

Let's also check long term Gold cycles, I have monthly gold data from 1790 until 2025, so 235 years data.

I see 7.74y cycle, maybe it is within the Orb (7.16y - 8.5y) from Rays expected 7.83y cycle, but it is also poor quality and currently inverted negative cycle. Do you really want to trade based on 'static cycle from a book' with 9 win and 12 loss ?

Maybe the 12.1 year Gold cycle is strongest. Why this is not in Ray's book list ?

----------------------------

Ok, let us also check Copper, since I know it has better cycles then Gold. In fact, trading Gold is really a dumb idea in my opinion since the Gold cycle are highly variable compared to other assets.

Here is Ray's list.

I have medium term data for Copper, daily from 1988 until 2025. It is enough to test his first cycles.

I put Rays cycles, not very good if you simply use static cycle in a book.

How about if we also tune the amount of overtone and backtest period on Rays cycle, to improve

Sorry, still not very good. Reader paying attention might notice 46.7m is within "Orb" large margin for error (39m to 54m), but others are totally useless and there is much better cycle we can find ourself.

How about instead we just use recommendation by Timing Solution for Copper.

Of course 34d/155d is very good, but it is of course not even in this experts book. Why is this? Because short cycle is best for trading, but short cycle will soon expire so it cannot be used to sell your book.

----------------------------

I will give one last example for Rays book list. Here is Wheat.

I use medium term daily data, 1972 until 2025.

I really do not know what this author is talking about. These are poor quality cycle.

Do you also see how many other cycle peak is detected "within Orb" 32m-52m (2.6y-4.3) range. Orb shows many possible cycles. Many possible excuses. Give me a break.

Here is my Wheat cycle. 44.8m (within 32m-52m large Orb margin for error from Rays book list). It is better then most of his other 'recommendation' but I will still not trade with such weak 9% price correlation. 

Maybe you prefer my cycle, 62% price correlation.

Maybe I shall sell some books, like Ray and Gann, instead of trading 🙂 and when I make mistake and want margin for error, I will invent term, such as Orb so you will not sue me.

Edited 6 hours ago by dynastic
Updated