RBFX Support Posted July 3 Author Report Share Posted July 3 The yen is deteriorating: JPY continues to depreciate The USDJPY pair is hitting 37-year highs, with the Bank of Japan’s inaction working against the yen. The Japanese yen is suffering considerably from this depreciation. Following financial interventions in May by the Japanese government and regulator, the yen stabilised for some time. However, it started weakening on 6 May, and the USDJPY pair has continuously risen since then. The primary reason for the yen’s weakness is the significant difference in monetary approaches and interest rates between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The BoJ interest rate remains at zero. The Bank of Japan’s inaction on the interest rate issue and the lack of a plan to normalise monetary policy exert pressure on the JPY. At the same time, the market speculates that the BoJ may raise the rate or give respective instructions at its meeting in late July. The weak yen negatively impacts household consumption, increasing import costs and heightening inflationary pressure. USDJPY technical analysis On the USDJPY H4 chart, a support level formed at 161.00, with the wave continuing to develop towards 161.85. Today, 3 July 2024, the price might reach this level and correct to 161.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the quotes could rise to 163.30, representing the main target of this growth wave. The yen’s depreciation remains the main scenario. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests the growth wave extension to the 163.30 level, followed by a decline to the 158.90 and 157.40 targets. Read more - USDJPY Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 4 Author Report Share Posted July 4 EURUSD has risen significantly, and statistics have nothing to do with it Risk appetite is pushing up the EURUSD pair. US statistics came out mixed, providing no clear signals. The EURUSD pair has risen markedly over the last two sessions and stabilised at 1.0785 on Thursday. Yesterday, the market had a plethora of macro statistics to consider, which have been factored into prices overall. The first signals about the state of the employment market have been received and analysed: the ADP number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 150,000 in June compared to the forecasted 163,000 and the previous 152,000, providing a neutral signal. Let us see what Friday’s NFP release will bring. The services PMI appears uneven. The official PMI report showed a decrease to 48.8 points in June from 53.8 points in May, a warning signal. At the same time, Markit observations reflected an increase to 55.3 in June from the previous 54.8. Readings over 50.0 points indicate improvement and expansion. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD has corrected to 1.0815. Today, 4 July 2024, a consolidation range could form below this level. With a downward breakout of the range, a new decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0730, a crucial level for this wave. Once the price reaches this level, it could correct to 1.0777 (testing from below). Subsequently, the decline structure might develop, targeting 1.0677 and potentially continuing to 1.0630. Risk appetite supports the EUR position. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast point to a further decline to the 1.0680, 1.0600, and 1.0555 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 5 Author Report Share Posted July 5 NZD has reached new weekly highs, driven by the weak US dollar The NZDUSD pair has risen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by the US dollar's weakness. The NZDUSD pair rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.6116. The New Zealand dollar gains ground due to the US dollar's weakness. The USD previously declined after the release of the ADP employment data in the US private sector and amid decreasing business activity in the services sector. These factors strengthened the market view that the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by the end of 2024. The US dollar fell, giving other currencies a chance to rise. At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve noted an inflation shift in the right direction but believed prices were not moving fast enough to revise interest rates. Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers stress the importance of being patient and consistent when making interest rate decisions. Others believe that it is time to raise rates as inflation is rising. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has corrected towards 0.6128. The market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6115, which could extend up to 0.6134 today, 5 July 2024. Once the price reaches this level, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 0.6090. Breaking above this level will open the potential for a decline to 0.6040, potentially continuing to 0.6023, the estimated target. The New Zealand dollar is strengthening, supported by the weakness of the US currency. The NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new decline wave to the 0.6090 and 0.6040 targets. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 8 Author Report Share Posted July 8 EURUSD remains elevated but is not too high The EURUSD pair continues its ascent. However, the euro faces risks due to the French political situation. The EURUSD pair appears relatively expensive, hovering at 1.0828 on Monday. Although US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 191,000, the data fell short of May readings. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.4%. As expected, average hourly earnings in June expanded by 0.3% m/m following a 0.4% increase in May. The market viewed the statistical data as soft, heightening expectations of a September US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which pressured the USD position. However, the euro also has reservations. The French election results created uncertainty about the country’s financial prospects. The left-wing alliance may have received an unexpected number of votes, creating challenging conditions for forming the French parliament. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD received support at 1.0806. A consolidation range has practically formed around this level, which is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 8 July 2024. Breaking above the range will open the potential for a growth wave to the local target of 1.0900. After reaching this target, the price is expected to fall to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.0944 The EURUSD pair remains elevated, but risks are mounting. Technical indicators point to a potential further correction to the 1.0840, 1.0900, and 1.0944 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 Gold (XAUUSD) prices rise ahead of the Federal Reserve chair’s speech Gold prices are rising on Tuesday, 9 July 2024, partially recouping Monday’s losses. The 2,350 level serves as strong support. Today, investors are focused on the upcoming report by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Last week’s economic data showed weakness in the US employment market, with the unemployment rate reaching the highest level in the past 2.5 years and wage growth slowing to a three-year low. These indicators have significantly increased expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Markets currently estimate the likelihood of a September interest rate reduction at 77%, with another cut following in December. Powell’s speeches to the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday will likely provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve’s further actions. Additionally, crucial inflation data is due Thursday, which may impact markets. Any hint of rising rate cut expectations may boost gold prices again. XAUUSD technical analysis The price of gold remains above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern, with the target for the pattern completion at 2,450 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 9 July 2024, suggests bullish momentum to 2,393. A rebound from the support level will provide an additional signal for a price rise. It is worth noting that the previous testing of this line pushed the price up by over 3%. A price decline below the 2,340 level can invalidate the bullish scenario. Such movement will indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, followed by a further fall to 2,315. Gold prices are climbing, driven by the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and reinforced by the weak US employment market data. The XAUUSD technical analysis points to bullish momentum, with the first target at 2,393. Read more - XAUUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt. Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president. Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar. Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900. The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 11 Author Report Share Posted July 11 EUR rises again The EURUSD pair is gradually rising. The market will be cautious ahead of the US CPI data release. The EURUSD pair regained strength and rose to 1.0836 on Thursday. Today is crucial for the currency market. US June consumer price index statistics and a corresponding basic report are due in the afternoon. The figures will provide the market with more insight into what to expect from the Federal Reserve in the near term. Inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.1% y/y from the previous 3.3% and is projected to have risen by 0.1% month-over-month from a zero value in May. It will be essential to monitor core inflation figures as they will show whether there are significant changes in groups of goods and services excluding volatile items. The annual and monthly core CPIs are expected to remain at 3.4% and 0.2%, respectively. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806 without any clear trend, with the market receiving support at this level. Today, 11 July 2024, the price rose to 1.0839 and is expected to decline to 1.0811, a crucial level for the EURUSD pair. With a breakout below this level, a correction could continue to 1.0777. If a growth wave develops and the price breaks above 1.0840, the trend might continue to the local target of 1.0888. EURUSD appears confident and is rising. Technical indicators suggest a potential correction in the EURUSD pair towards the 1.0777 target. Once the correction is complete, a new growth wave might start, aiming for 1.8888. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 12 Author Report Share Posted July 12 The GBPUSD pair hit a monthly peak The GBPUSD pair is appreciating markedly; market sentiment is positive. The Bank of England is gathering additional arguments in favour of falling inflation. The British pound sterling appears strong against the US dollar. The latest growth impulse was driven by a statement made by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. He noted that additional evidence of a sustained decline in inflation was necessary before deciding to lower interest rates. Pill believes rising prices in the services sector and overall wage growth negatively impact consumer prices. UK inflation reached the 2% target in May. However, according to Pill, more is needed as this could be a temporary phenomenon. The market currently expects borrowing costs to be reduced at the September meeting. According to stock market forecasts, two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are possible by the end of the year. GBPUSD technical analysis Based on analysis as of 12 July 2024, the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.2945. Today, a correction might start, aiming for 1.2777. After the correction, the price could rise to 1.2950, marking the completion of growth potential. Subsequently, a decline wave could begin, targeting 1.2610. The pound sterling is rising steadily and has reached a monthly high. Technical analysis suggests that the GBPUSD rate will continue its upward trajectory to the 1.2950 target. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 15 Author Report Share Posted July 15 EURUSD continues to rise: demand for risk wins over caution The EURUSD pair remains in positive territory, but the market acts carefully. It has yet to evaluate the consequences of an assassination attempt on Trump. The EURUSD pair suspended but did not halt its growth, with the main movements around 1.0892 at the start of the week. Friday’s US statistics were surprising. The producer price index in June rose by 0.2% m/m from the zero value in May in line with the 0.2% forecast. The indicator increased by 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%. Manufacturing inflation is rising, which may alert the US Federal Reserve and prompt it to maintain elevated interest rates longer than necessary. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 66.0 points in July, falling short of forecasts of 69.5, which may also be attributed to the inflationary environment. The weekend events could not but impact the market. This refers to the incident with former US President Donald Trump, who was shot in the ear at his rally in Pennsylvania. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.0888 and extended it to 1.0910. Today, 15 July 2024, the market returned to 1.0881. The price is expected to breach this level and extend the range down to 1.0858, representing the first target for correction. A corrective wave could practically form, with the main target at 1.0808. After the correction, another growth structure might develop towards 1.0950, marking the completion of growth potential. Volatility in the EURUSD pair will increase during the US presidential race. Technical indicators point to a further correction towards the 1.0808 target. A growth wave could start once the correction is complete, aiming for 1.0950. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 16 Author Report Share Posted July 16 USDCHF: second day of growth The USDCHF pair is rising for the second day. Activity in USDCHF is low as the market is keeping an eye on the situation. The instrument appears quite stable now. This is a long-awaited equilibrium point following a marked previous decline. The US dollar is strengthening against the franc amid growing overall market sympathy with the USD. This comes after last weekend’s incident with former US President Donald Trump. The assassination attempt on the politician increased his chances of winning the presidential race and the November election. Supported by this, the US dollar and US government bond yields are increasing, with other currencies forced to adapt to this situation. Due to this, Switzerland’s domestic statistics are of secondary importance to investors. Switzerland’s producer price index for June was released yesterday, coming in at zero month-over-month following a previous decrease of 0.3%. However, the indicator fell by 1.9% year-over-year. USDCHF technical analysis Technical analysis of the USDCHF pair on the H4 chart as of 16 July 2024 suggests that a decline wave could continue to 0.8901, representing the first target. Once the price reaches this target, a correction towards 0.8975 might develop. Subsequently, another decline wave could follow, aiming for 0.8826 and potentially continuing to 0.8761. USDCHF investors are forced to take into account the strength of the US dollar. Technical analysis for today’s USDCHF forecast suggests that a wave might continue to the 0.8901 target. Read more - USDCHF Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 17 Author Report Share Posted July 17 NZD rises amid easing inflation The NZDUSD rate is rising on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, after rebounding from the support level. The price earlier reached a two-month low. New Zealand’s services PMI decreased by 2.4 points to 40.2 in June 2024, reaching the lowest level in 17 months. This is the fourth consecutive decline, indicating a significant slowdown in the services sector. Due to this, the NZDUSD rate reached a two-month low. However, today, investors reacted positively to the news that New Zealand’s annual inflation eased to 3.3% in Q2 from 4.0% in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level in three years. The New Zealand dollar recouped some losses, rising above 0.6081. Despite this data, markets are still pricing in about three interest rate cuts by the end of the year. The RBNZ kept the interest rate at 5.5% last week but hinted at a potential future easing of monetary policy if inflation continues to slow. This increased the chances of an interest rate cut at the August meeting which is currently estimated by markets at 53%. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6031. Today, 17 July 2024, a correction towards 0.6098 is expected. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could start, aiming for the local target of 0.6022. Subsequently, the price could rise to 0.6064 (testing from below) before falling to 0.5977, the estimated target. Despite growth driven by easing inflation, the New Zealand dollar could weaken due to a significant decline in business activity in the services sector. Technical analysis of the NZDUSD pair suggests that the trend could continue to the 0.6022 and 0.5977 targets. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 GDP stays afloat despite fundamental data A decrease in the number of claims for unemployment benefits and a stable unemployment rate increase the chances of the British pound strengthening. Average earnings in the UK (including May bonuses) decreased by 0.2% from the previous value, in line with the forecast. The UK claimant count change exceeded expectations but was lower than the previous reading. These data did not significantly affect the GBPUSD rate, with the pair continuing to trade around 1.3000. The unemployment level remained flat, aligning with the forecast and having little impact on the price. Data, including US initial jobless claims, is due after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast shows an increase to 229,000, which could negatively impact the US dollar. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis of 18 July 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.3040 (adjusted for an extension). A correction towards 1.2945 could start today. Once the correction is complete, the price might rise to 1.2990. Subsequently, a decline wave is expected, aiming for 1.2850 and potentially continuing to 1.2800. Fundamental data and technical indicators suggest a decline in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2945, 1.2850, and 1.2800 targets. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 19 Author Report Share Posted July 19 AUD falls again, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline The AUDUSD pair continues to lose ground. The market is selling off risky assets. The Australian dollar, in the pair with its US counterpart, has been steadily and uninterruptedly falling for five days. The AUDUSD pair reached 0.6698, the lowest level in the last two weeks. The sell-off is associated with the strengthening of the US dollar. According to recent data, Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. At the same time, June’s job growth is notable, indicating heightened tension in the employment sector, which elevates concerns about an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Investors are now pricing in a 20% possibility of an RBA interest rate hike in August, whereas the figure did not exceed 12% a couple of days ago. AUDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6699. A consolidation range is expected to form above this level today, 19 July 2024. With an upward breakout, a growth wave could start, aiming for 0.6750 and potentially continuing to 0.6811. The Australian dollar came under pressure from the USD and employment market data. Technical analysis for the AUDUSD pair suggests a growth wave to the 0.6750 and 0.6811 targets. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 22 Author Report Share Posted July 22 (edited) Trump takes the lead, but the USD remains hesitant: all eyes on politics The EURUSD pair is consolidating. Investors need to assess crucial changes in the US political race. The EURUSD pair stopped at 1.0888 on Monday. The market is extremely cautious as the weekend brought unexpected news that needs to be analysed and weighed. The incumbent US President, Joe Biden Jr., announced his decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential campaign. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. However, it is still unclear whether Harris can gain the required support as the new Democratic nominee. Former US President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is far ahead. Although Harris can be a strong politician and a presidential nominee, the question remains whether this is enough to change the results of preliminary surveys. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has reached the decline wave’s local target of 1.0875. Today, 22 July 2024, a correction was formed, aiming for 1.0902 (testing from below). The decline wave is expected to continue to 1.0860, representing the first estimated target. After reaching this target, the price could rise to 1.0900. Subsequently, another decline wave could develop, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to 1.0777. The EURUSD pair has become became centre of US political news. Technical indicators suggest a further corrective wave, with a target at 1.0777. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited July 22 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 23 Author Report Share Posted July 23 Gold (XAUUSD) is correcting after reaching a new all-time high Gold prices are declining after reaching an all-time high of 2,483 USD per troy ounce. Gold failed to hold near the all-time high of 2,483 USD reached last week. Buyers appear to have decided to lock in profits, causing XAUUSD quotes to reverse direction and fall below the 2,400 level. The decline in gold prices is driven by the current strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may provide support for gold. XAUUSD technical analysis The XAUUSD H4 chart shows an ongoing downward correction from the historical maximum of 2,483 USD. The quotes are currently hovering around 2,388, which coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous upward movement. If bears gain a foothold below 2,388, XAUUSD quotes can be expected to fall further to the 2,368 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this level, bulls might attempt a counterattack to reverse the trend upward. Gold is declining in a downward correction after reaching the historical high of 2,483 last week. Bulls may attempt to reverse the price trend upward at 2,368-2,388 support levels. Read more - XAUUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 24 Author Report Share Posted July 24 GBPUSD may weaken by year-end amid the BoE policy The GBPUSD is falling for the second consecutive session. Read in the analysis for 24 July 2024 how the upcoming Bank of England’s decision may affect the pound. UK retail sales unexpectedly decreased by 1.2% in June, significantly exceeding the projected 0.4% decline. Combined with slowing wage growth and inflation reaching the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, this drop increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut in August. Expectations of such action already exert pressure on the GBPUSD rate as an interest rate cut typically weakens the national currency. Unexpectedly robust service inflation data have supported the sterling pound rate for some time, forcing the Bank of England to postpone an interest rate cut, making UK bonds more appealing to investors. However, Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, believes the pound could weaken by year-end since the BoE will likely lower the rate. Analysts predict that the Bank of England may have three interest rate cuts this year, but only if the UK’s economic situation is favourable. The first decision is expected to be announced at a Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 1 August 2024. According to traders, easing the monetary policy will push down the pound sterling. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis for 24 July 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair is forming a consolidation range around 1.2911, which is expected to extend down to 1.2879 today. Subsequently, the price could rise to 1.2911 (testing from below) before the decline wave likely continues to 1.2777, representing the first target. Today’s GBPUSD forecast shows that the likelihood of a decline in the British pound persists due to the Bank of England’s potential monetary policy easing measures. Technical indicators suggest a fall in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2879, 1.2850, and 1.2777 targets. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 25 Author Report Share Posted July 25 USDCAD rises following Bank of Canada interest rate cut The USDCAD pair continues to rise following a reduction in Canadian interest rates. Positive US data may cause the Canadian dollar to lose ground further. Find out more in our analysis dated 25 July 2024. The Canadian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar for the second consecutive week. The Bank of Canada lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. Consequently, the USDCAD rate has risen further, approaching April’s highs. This week’s forecast of economic indicators is not favourable for the Canadian dollar. Average weekly earnings are expected to decline further, following decreases in the previous two reports. The decline in earnings could be attributed to rising unemployment, a negative economic factor. Previous data show a decrease in manufacturing sales to 0.4%. Growth is unlikely in the current period, with a decline appearing more probable. US initial jobless claims are projected to reach 237,000, lower than the previous figure. This suggests a decrease in unemployment, which could positively impact the US dollar and drive the USDCAD rate higher. USDCAD technical analysis The forecast for 25 July 2024 shows that the USDCAD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 1.3740. The market has formed a consolidation range around this level. With an upward breakout, the wave could extend to the local target of 1.3825. Once the price reaches this target, a correction is possible, aiming for 1.3740 (testing from above). Subsequently, a new growth wave could start, targeting 1.3892. The interest rate cut in Canada and technical analysis for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a potential uptrend towards 1.3825, which could extend to 1.3892. Read more - USDCAD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 26 Author Report Share Posted July 26 AUDUSD sell-offs have ended: investors await inflation data The AUDUSD pair halted its decline. The AUD rate experienced its worst week since November. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 26 July 2024. The AUDUSD pair has stabilised after a massive decline, hovering around 0.6552. The fall has been observed for nine consecutive trading sessions. This week will be the worst for the AUD since November last year, with losses of about 2%. The decline of the Australian dollar was driven by a global sell-off of risky assets, the unwinding of carry trades against the yen, and weak economic data from China, Australia’s major trading partner. Next week, Australia will release Q2 2024 inflation data, which will likely provide investors with more insight into future monetary policy actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUDUSD technical analysis On the AUDUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 0.6610. The AUDUSD rate, breaking below the range, reached the wave’s local target of 0.6512. A correction is expected today, 26 July 2024, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below) and followed by another decline wave towards 0.6468. Once the price reaches this level, the AUDUSD pair is expected to see a new growth structure or a consolidation range, potentially continuing to 0.6420. The AUDUSD pair appears weak following a wave of sell-offs. The indicator-based AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a corrective wave towards 0.6610 and a new decline wave towards the 0.6468 and 0.6420 targets. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 29 Author Report Share Posted July 29 EURUSD continues to rise: risk appetite supports buyers The EURUSD pair is rising. The week begins quietly, with the US Federal Reserve meeting lying ahead. Find out more in our forecast dated 29 July 2024. The EURUSD pair climbs to 1.0859 on Monday. The focus will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting this week. The Fed must maintain all the fundamentals for a September interest rate cut. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (core PCE) price index rose by 0.1% m/m in June after stabilising in May. The indicator increased by 2.5% year-over-year compared to the May reading of 2.6%. All this aligned with expectations. However, a further decline would bolster confidence that the Fed will reduce the rate quickly. The Federal Reserve uses this inflation measure to make its monetary decisions. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop around 1.0850 with no clear trend. A rise to 1.0871 remains relevant today, 29 July 2024. Subsequently, the price could fall to 1.0833 and then rise to 1.0874. A price surge to 1.0886 is also possible. This entire growth structure is viewed as a correction of the previous decline wave. Once it is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to the local targets of 1.0777 and 1.0760. Although the EURUSD pair maintained its recovery momentum, it is temporary. The EURUSD forecast for today aligns with technical indicators, suggesting a further corrective wave towards (at least) 1.0874. Once completed, the EURUSD rate is expected to decline to the targets of 1.0818, 1.0777, and 1.0760. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 30 Author Report Share Posted July 30 USDCHF is poised for growth; the franc is retreating rapidly The USDCHF pair has been rising, with this trend persisting for the third consecutive day due to the strength of the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis dated 30 July 2024. The USDCHF pair has risen for three consecutive days and is now approaching 0.8866. This movement follows a fairly noticeable decline in the pair in July. The US dollar is clearly rebounding, supported by forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged at today’s meeting. The rate is expected to remain within the 5.25-5.50% range. Investors are primarily anticipating signals regarding the next meeting scheduled for September. The USDCHF pair is forced to react to external factors. However, Switzerland’s domestic statistics are not robust enough to capture investor attention. Today, Switzerland will release the report on the KOF leading indicators index for July, which is expected to decrease slightly to 102.6 points from the previous 102.7. USDCHF technical analysis On the H4 chart, the USDCHF pair continues its correction towards 0.8888. Today, 30 July 2024, a rise to 0.8870 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8833 (testing from above). Subsequently, the USDCHF rate could rise to 0.8888, with the correction potentially extending to 0.8900. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could begin, aiming for 0.8761 as the wave’s main target. The USDCHF pair has been rising for the third consecutive day. Technical indicators for today’s USDCHF forecast suggest a further correction towards 0.8888, followed by a decline to 0.8761. Read more - USDCHF Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 31 Author Report Share Posted July 31 (edited) USDCAD is correcting: investors await signals from the Federal Reserve and the Canadian economy The USDCAD rate is declining on Wednesday following a protracted rise amid expectations of the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024. The USDCAD rate reached 1.3863 on Monday, marking the pair’s eight-month low. Investors attribute this decline to anticipating the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices amid concerns about sluggish oil demand from China. The USDCAD rate continues to tumble on 31 July 2024, testing the 1.3840 support level. The latest CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data reveals a notable increase in bearish positions on the Canadian currency. Speculators are betting on a further decline in the Canadian dollar to a record level. As of 23 July, net short positions increased to 161.6 thousand contracts from 132.5 thousand a week ago. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but anticipate a signal for an imminent cut. Traders will also focus on Canada’s monthly GDP data, which is due for release today. Analysts note that prolonged one-way movements in the currency market rarely exceed ten trading sessions. Therefore, investors are likely to begin closing short positions in the Canadian dollar soon, which could potentially push the USDCAD rate down. USDCAD technical analysis USDCAD technical analysis for 31 July 2024 shows that the pair has completed a growth wave, reaching 1.3864. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, the rate is expected to decline to 1.3828 before rising to 1.3844 (testing from below). Subsequently, a decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.3793 as the first target of the downtrend. Investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates and closely monitor Canada’s GDP data. Closing short positions in the Canadian dollar may lead to further declines in the USDCAD rate. Technical indicators for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a decline wave towards 1.3792. Read more - USDCAD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited July 31 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted August 1 Author Report Share Posted August 1 AUDUSD declines further following a correction The AUDUSD pair is falling despite improved trade balance and increased commodity price index. Find out more in our analysis dated 1 August 2024. The balance of trade reflects the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports. An increase in exports indicates economic development, while import volumes indicate domestic demand. Positive trade balance readings, above both the expected and previous values, are considered a positive factor for the national currency. Australia’s trade balance has increased to 5.589 billion, highlighting economic development and potentially positively impacting the AUDUSD rate. The commodity price index shows changes in sales of exported goods. Rising prices increase returns on exports and impact the trade balance. Although the current reading is negative, the index has increased from its previous level, which is generally considered positive for the national currency. The PMI shows the country’s production activity level over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while below 50.0 signals a decline. The index is currently projected to be 0.3 points higher than the previous reading, which may theoretically be considered positive. However, as the index remains below 50.0, it shows negative results. Although today’s AUDUSD forecast based on fundamental analysis appears favourable for the Australian dollar, it does not prevent the currency pair from declining. AUDUSD technical analysis The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair maintains its downward momentum towards the local target of 0.6473. The AUDUSD rate is expected to reach this target today, 1 August 2024. Subsequently, a correction could follow, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below). Once this correction is complete, another decline wave could develop, targeting 0.6430. Overall, fundamental data aligns with the AUDUSD indicator-based technical analysis, suggesting that the downtrend might continue to the 0.6473 and 0.6430 levels. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted August 2 Author Report Share Posted August 2 NZDUSD is in positive territory: the market favours risk The NZDUSD pair has recovered quite well. The market is once again interested in risk. Find out more in our analysis dated 2 August 2024. The NZDUSD rate has noticeably recovered after its previous decline. The pair is hovering around 0.5953 on Friday. July’s decline in the NZDUSD rate was relatively stable, driven by weak reports from China, a general exit of investors from carry trade positions in the Japanese yen, and an unfavourable sentiment towards risky assets. The New Zealand dollar is now recovering amid stabilised demand for risky assets and improved market sentiment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting on 14 August. Investors believe there is a 36% likelihood of an interest rate cut at this meeting. Expectations for the October meeting are relatively high, with another reduction in borrowing costs anticipated. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5858, and has corrected towards 0.5977 (testing from below). The NZDUSD forecast for today, 2 August 2024, indicates that a consolidation range is forming at the top of a corrective wave. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline towards 0.5888. If the price breaks below this level, the trend could continue to 0.5802, the first target of the downward wave. The NZDUSD pair has partially recouped its previous decline. Today’s NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the trend may continue to the 0.5888 and 0.5802 target levels. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 GBPUSD: a temporary rally following weak US data The GBPUSD rate is aggressively declining today after rising on Friday on weak US data. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024. The GBPUSD currency pair rose by over 0.5% on Friday due to a weak US employment report. This report heightened concerns about a potential recession and increased expectations for a more significant Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Friday’s data revealed that the US economy added just 114,000 jobs in July, falling short of the projected 175,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching the highest level since 2021, while wage growth slowed more than anticipated. According to analysts, if investors focus solely on Friday’s US employment data, this may distort the GBPUSD forecast for today. An average reading over the past three months could provide a more accurate picture. Overall, traders believe that the strengthening of the pound sterling may be temporary. If the released data indicate easing inflation and declining employment in the UK, the Bank of England might ease its monetary policy, which could exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis for 5 August 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair remains in a downtrend, aiming for 1.2700 as the first target. The price is expected to reach this target level today. Subsequently, it could correct towards 1.2870 (testing from below). Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might begin, targeting 1.2600. Despite Friday’s strengthening, the pound sterling may weaken due to worsening UK economic indicators and the potential easing of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest that the GBPUSD rate could decline to 1.2700 before correcting towards 1.2870. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted August 6 Author Report Share Posted August 6 EURUSD leapt and fell: the currency market reached equilibrium The EURUSD pair is poised for a correction. The strain level has subsided. Find out more in our analysis dated 6 August 2024. The EURUSD pair retreated to 1.0951 on Tuesday. The market slightly cooled after the price reached a new multi-week high of 1.1010 yesterday. Investors had previously positioned themselves against the US dollar in response to Friday’s US employment market statistics and their concerns about a potential recession, with a subsequent weak ISM manufacturing report adding to these fears. In this context, investors expected the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates immediately to prevent a recession. Such actions by the Fed could undermine confidence in the regulator and adversely impact inflation expectations. The market is gradually stabilising now. The Federal Reserve did not take any significant action or make notable announcements, which reassured the market. In the short term, reduced speculation about an imminent interest rate cut should support the US dollar, pushing the EURUSD rate down. EURUSD technical analysis The H4 chart shows that the EURUSD pair has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.1000. The initial phase of this downward wave could develop today, 6 August 2024, aiming for 1.0820. The EURUSD rate declined to 1.0955 and corrected this downward impulse, reaching 1.0985. Subsequently, the market returned to 1.0955, forming a narrow consolidation range around this level. A break below this range is expected, targeting 1.0924 and potentially extending the decline towards 1.0903. The EURUSD pair corrected towards a local high. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest that the downward wave could extend to 1.0903, potentially continuing the trend towards 1.0820 and 1.0800 levels. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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