RBFX Support Posted October 2 Author Report Share Posted October 2 Gold (XAUUSD) reverses down from resistance at 2,670 USD Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a reversal after attempting to break through the resistance at 2,670 USD. Today, market participants will shift their focus to the US labour market data from ADP, which could significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook. Read more in our analysis for today, 2 October 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting today's Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) statistics on the US labour market, which will serve as a potential signal for the next moves in XAUUSD Current trend: a correction within the uptrend is underway XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2024: 2,685 and 2,630 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes are currently in a moderate downward correction after reaching an all-time high of 2,685 USD last week. Yesterday, XAUUSD prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Today's employment data from ADP is expected to reveal 120,000 new jobs. If the data falls below the forecast, it could pressure the USD and strengthen gold, signalling a bullish trend for XAUUSD. Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, it would bolster the US dollar, contributing to a bearish XAUUSD prediction and potentially signalling a decline in gold prices. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 Silver (XAGUSD) corrects down from resistance at 32.30 USD The XAGUSD price failed to overcome the resistance at 32.30 USD yesterday and entered a downward correction. Tomorrow, market participants will focus on US labour market data. Read about it in our XAGUSD analysis for today, 3 October 2024. Silver forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting tomorrow’s US labour market statistics Current trend: a local correction is underway within the uptrend XAGUSD forecast for 3 October 2024: 32.30 and 31.00 Silver fundamental analysis Silver (XAGUSD) remains in a strong daily uptrend, fuelled by the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 0.50% during the September meeting. This cycle of rate cuts is weakening the US dollar, supporting both gold and silver prices. Market participants are closely watching US employment data for insights. The ADP report on Wednesday showed an increase of 143,000 jobs. However, Friday’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures will be crucial. A decline in employment could weigh on the USD and provide bullish momentum for silver. At the same time, stronger-than-expected job growth could support the USD, potentially triggering a deeper correction in XAGUSD. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 4 Author Report Share Posted October 4 USDJPY halts growth as the market pauses for further developments USDJPY growth halted on Friday as the market paused and awaits further developments. More details and insights are available in our USDJPY analysis and forecast for today, 4 October 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY pair is consolidating The market paused following a 3% decline in the yen over the past week USDJPY forecast for 4 October 2024: 145.22 and 143.2 Fundamental analysis On Friday, the USDJPY rate reached a high of 146.27 before stabilising. The Japanese yen has slightly recovered after its sharp decline of over 3% against the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, which softened its outlook on interest rates. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that current economic conditions do not justify a rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen faced additional pressure from the strong appreciation of the US dollar. Recent US economic data signals that the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates as aggressively as initially expected. The overall USDJPY forecast remains neutral as the market assesses these fundamental factors. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 7 Author Report Share Posted October 7 USDJPY: the strong US labour market supports growth in the pair The USDJPY rate is approaching the 149.35 resistance level amid uncertainty regarding the BoJ policy. Discover more in our analysis for 7 October 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The number of US jobs increased by 254,000 in September, marking the highest gain over the past six months The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut decreased to 4.3% Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since October 2020 USDJPY forecast for 7 October 2024: 145.95, 144.30, and 142.68 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate has decreased significantly since last week’s surge. The yen came under pressure due to statements from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who called for caution regarding further BoJ interest rate hikes, considering the current economic conditions. The additional weakening of the yen is caused by the strong US employment report released on Friday. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, showing the most substantial growth over the past six months and reducing market expectations of a potential significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut in November decreased to 4.3%, while the odds of a softer 25-basis-point reduction increased to 95.7%. Such expectations in today’s USDJPY forecast may prompt buyers to break above the 149.35 resistance level. Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which evaluates the prospects for the months ahead, decreased to 106.7 points in August 2024 from 109.3 in July, reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Japan’s Coincident Index, which includes data such as production output, employment, and retail sales, dropped to 113.5 in August from 117.2 a month earlier, marking the lowest reading since February. Traders are currently focusing on the upcoming wage data in Japan, which may impact inflationary expectations and the BoJ’s monetary policy. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 10 Author Report Share Posted October 10 EURUSD appears weak: US inflation data ahead The EURUSD pair declined markedly. The market believes in the US dollar’s “exceptionalism”. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points The EURUSD pair fell to a low seen on 13 August The market increasingly favours the US dollar EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2024: 1.0905 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0943 on Thursday. This is the euro’s lowest level since 13 August. As they say on the stock market, investors were again drawn to the idea of the US currency’s “exceptionalism”. According to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released yesterday, the regulator remains focused on maintaining the health of the labour market. The US economy is growing strongly, providing solid support for the USD position. Interesting US inflation data for September will be released today. The weekly jobless claims report is also worth noting. The EURUSD forecast remains cautious for now. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 11 Author Report Share Posted October 11 Gold (XAUUSD) reversed upwards from 2,600 USD XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction, with the chart showing an upward reversal. The market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. More details and insights are available in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 October 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting today’s US inflation statistics, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release Current trend: the pair is trading in an uptrend USD forecast for 11 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,670 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction, receiving active support from buyers near 2,600 USD. Gold continues to attract demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal. Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly aligned with market expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. A weaker-than-expected reading could exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure would support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD prices lower. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 14 Author Report Share Posted October 14 Gold (XAUUSD) continues its ascent, rising above 2,650 USD XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction and decisively reversed upwards. The price is expected to continue ascending and potentially hit a new all-time high of 2,685 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 October 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: last week’s US inflation statistics came out roughly in line with forecasts Current trend: trading in an uptrend XAUUSD forecast for 14 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,685 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards in line with the trend, receiving active support from buyers at around 2,600 USD. Gold is in demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal. Last week’s US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), roughly aligned with forecasts. The stock market responded to the released statistics with a rise, and gold also strengthened against the US dollar. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 15 Author Report Share Posted October 15 EURUSD declines for the third consecutive week The EURUSD rate continues to edge down, falling below 1.0900. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 86.8% The ECB is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2024: 1.0890 and 1.0850 Fundamental analysis The euro continues to trade under pressure from strong US labour market data as markets expect the Fed to reduce interest rates at a more measured pace. At its Thursday meeting, the ECB is expected to lower the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.25%. The projected rate cut pressures the European currency, pushing the EURUSD pair down. Today, the market will focus on the euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), industrial production growth rates, and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Depending on the data released, volatility in the EURUSD pair may increase sharply. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 16 Author Report Share Posted October 16 USDJPY: BoJ’s uncertain stance and weak data put pressure on the yen The USDJPY rate rose slightly on Wednesday but remains below the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points Seiji Adachi’s speech did not significantly impact the volatility of the USDJPY pair According to the BoJ official, interest rate hikes should be gradual to avoid the risk of deflation Japan’s machinery orders fell by 1.9% in August USDJPY forecast for 16 October 2024: 150.22, 151.30, and 153.22 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate continues to test the 149.45 resistance level. However, buyers have yet to secure a position above it. The speech by BoJ official Seiji Adachi, which could have shed light on the BoJ’s future monetary policy moves, did not significantly impact the currency pair’s movements. In his speech, Adachi said that the interest rate should be raised gradually to avoid the risk of deflation. He noted that the Japanese economy has already created conditions for normalising monetary policy, but slowing global demand requires a thorough assessment. The regulator’s official also emphasised that it is necessary to maintain a loose financial policy until inflation reaches a stable level. Meanwhile, machinery orders in Japan decreased by 1.9% in August 2024, although analysts expected a 1.5% increase. This represents the fifth contraction this year. Orders declined by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly contrasting with the 8.7% growth in July. Therefore, this data within today’s USDJPY forecast may exert additional pressure on the yen. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 17 Author Report Share Posted October 17 AUDUSD rises on positive employment data The AUDUSD rate remains above the EMA-200 line, thanks to the stable Australian economy. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2024. AUDUSD forecast: key trading points Analysts expect the RBA not to lower interest rates until the first half of next year The Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000 Australia’s labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September AUDUSD forecast for 17 October 2024: 0.6645 Fundamental analysis The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after falling for three consecutive days. A robust employment report supported the Australian dollar, reinforcing the hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. The data showed that the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September, up from 67.1% in August and above analysts’ forecasts of 67.1%. The results indicate the labour market’s resilience, reducing the likelihood of an RBA interest rate cut in the coming months. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the central bank remains committed to controlling inflation amid steady price growth. According to analysts (given the strengthening labour market), the regulator will not lower interest rates until the first half of next year, which may support the Australian dollar as part of today’s AUDUSD forecast. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 18 Author Report Share Posted October 18 USDJPY: Japan’s inflation eases but remains above the BoJ’s target The USDJPY rate is hovering around an 11-week high. Find out more in our analysis for 18 October 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, the lowest level since April Tokyo’s core inflation index increased by 2.4% in September, remaining above the BoJ’s 2.0% target Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned against excessive yen volatility USDJPY forecast for 18 October 2024: 151.15 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction after rising for two days. The yen remains under pressure due to easing inflation in the country, which weakens the national currency despite expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary policy. According to today’s USDJPY forecast, the currency pair will likely continue its upward trend. Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, down from 3.0% in August. This is the first time inflation has slowed since March and the lowest since April 2024. The core inflation index, closely monitored by the BoJ, rose by 2.4%, marking the lowest reading since April after a 2.8% increase in August. The figure has remained above the regulator’s 2.0% target for 30 months. Inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.1% in September, up from 2.0% in August. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Seiji Adachi recently noted that the pace of interest rate hikes should be moderate, warning against abrupt policy changes due to uncertainty in the global economy and the country’s wage growth rate. At the same time, the yen’s weakness prompted Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, to remind the Japanese government that it is closely watching foreign exchange movements and to emphasise that excessive volatility is undesirable. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 21 Author Report Share Posted October 21 EURUSD: the resilience of the US economy supports the US dollar The EURUSD rate declines after rebounding from the 1.0870 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 21 October 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points The US dollar has strengthened for the third consecutive week amid expectations of a softer Federal Reserve rate cut Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November at 90.9% This week, investors are focusing on corporate reports and risks related to the US election EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2024: 1.0820 and 1.077 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction after Friday’s rise, remaining below the EMA-200 level, indicating persistent pressure from sellers. The US dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks amid expectations of a softer Fed rate-cutting cycle and higher chances of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming elections. Analysts note that the current US interest rate helps strengthen the US currency. At the same time, rate cuts in other countries only add to the USD’s appeal. Experts believe this trend may persist until the election, and if Donald Trump wins, it will likely continue. The markets currently estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 90.9%. Investors are now awaiting the release of data on new home sales and durable goods orders in the US. The markets will primarily focus on corporate reports and risks related to the upcoming election. Retail sales data and the previously released robust statistics on the labour market and inflation show that consumer spending is stable. This reflects the resilience of the US economy, which is still far from a recession. According to today’s EURUSD forecast, this may support the US dollar. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 22 Author Report Share Posted October 22 USDJPY continues its ascent, reaching a three-month high The USDJPY pair has reached a new three-month peak. The market does not rule out currency interventions from the Bank of Japan. Find out more in our analysis for 22 October 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY pair has surpassed a three-month high The yen has weakened, increasing the likelihood of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan USDJPY forecast for 22 October 2024: 151.25 and 153.20 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate rose by 150.95 on Tuesday, the highest level in the last three months. Investors believe the odds of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan increased after the USDJPY tested the 151.00 level. However, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki did not comment on a news media question about currency fluctuations. Last week, one of the top currency diplomats, Atsushi Mimura, noted that the authorities are closely monitoring all market movements. He also added that excessive volatility was undesirable. These remarks can be interpreted differently, but the market typically views them as a signal of readiness to influence the situation. Currency interventions occurred in early 2024 when the yen breached the 160.00 level. This time, the JPY began to weaken in mid-September due to rising uncertainty about the trajectory of BoJ interest rate hikes. The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further growth. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 23 Author Report Share Posted October 23 (edited) PepsiCo’s revenue falls, but its stock price continues to rise. What is the secret behind the popularity of PepsiCo shares? Despite the challenges PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) has faced, its stock price has been rising steadily. On 8 October, the company released its Q3 2024 report, posting revenue lower than the corresponding period in 2023. Nonetheless, the stock price continued its upward trajectory. PepsiCo Inc.’s business model PepsiCo divides its operations into three major segments, publishing information on each separately in its quarterly reports. Below are the segments in which the company operates: Frito-Lay: here, PepsiCo focuses on producing and selling various snacks. The range includes products from many popular brands (Cheetos, Doritos, Lay’s, Ruffles, and Tostitos). Its leading position in the US salty snack market is supported by these high-margin products Quaker Foods: this includes Quaker products, one of the pioneering brands in PepsiCo’s portfolio, which specialises in healthy eating. Quaker offers cereal bars, cereals, muesli, oatmeal, and other products. This sector focuses on breakfast and healthy eating products. How inflation impacts PepsiCo Inc.’s revenue Experts are increasingly suggesting online that US inflation may begin to rise again and exceed the 2022 figures. If these forecasts materialise, how could this influence the company’s revenue? It is impossible to predict reliably how exactly things will evolve. However, we can analyse past periods when the company operated amid both high and low inflation. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited October 23 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 24 Author Report Share Posted October 24 AUDUSD rises slightly, but pressure persists The AUDUSD pair remains in a downward trend, pausing for corrections. Risk appetite is weak. Discover more in our analysis for 24 October 2024. AUDUSD forecast: key trading points The AUDUSD pair declines The RBA is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged this year AUDUSD forecast for 24 October 2024: 0.6696 Fundamental analysis The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6647. The Australian dollar reached a two-month low, as the strong US dollar and rising yields on US government bonds left it little chance of recovery. The market expects the Federal Reserve to gradually reduce interest rates. Investors also anticipate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election in November. According to new statistical data, Australia’s private sector activity was more stable in October. Activity in the services sector continued to grow, while the manufacturing segment contracted at its sharpest pace since May 2020. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted earlier this week that the central bank is ready to respond based on incoming data. He highlighted the country’s unexpectedly strong employment growth, which came as a surprise. The baseline AUDUSD forecast appears mixed and suggests that the interest rate in Australia will remain unchanged this year. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 25 Author Report Share Posted October 25 (edited) NZDUSD under pressure: consumer confidence in New Zealand decreases The NZDUSD rate is declining within a descending channel, attempting to secure a position below the support level. Find out more in our analysis for 25 October 2024. NZDUSD forecast: key trading points RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr confirmed that the low inflation target is attainable, adding to arguments for an interest rate cut in November New Zealand’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 95.1 in September to 91.2 in October NZDUSD forecast for 25 October 2024: 0.5984 and 0.6052 Fundamental analysis The NZDUSD rate declined to 0.5987 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive week of losses. The pressure on the New Zealand dollar is mounting amid rising expectations of a moderate Federal Reserve rate cut and uncertainty about the upcoming US presidential election. Domestically, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr noted that attaining low and stable inflation has become a realistic target. This adds to arguments supporting another substantial RBNZ rate cut in November. The markets have already priced in a 50-basis-point cut and are also assessing the likelihood of a 75-basis-point reduction. As part of today’s NZDUSD forecast, these factors exert pressure on the currency pair. The significant economic news from New Zealand includes a decrease in consumer confidence in October after three consecutive months of growth. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.2 points in October from 95.1 in September, indicating the end of the recovery period. Employment figures remain extremely weak, with 22% of respondents reporting a weaker financial position than last year and only 14% expecting improvements next year. This is significantly lower than the September indicator of 25%. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited October 25 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 29 Author Report Share Posted October 29 EURUSD: Strong US economy and expectations of Trump’s victory exert pressure on the euro The EURUSD rate slightly declines, remaining within the range. More details in our analysis for 29 October 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points Positive US economic indicators continue to exert pressure on the euro The increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election supports the US dollar Traders are focused on the upcoming releases of crucial economic data, such as US GDP, CPI, and the employment report EURUSD forecast for 29 October 2024: 1.0780 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate continues to correct for the fifth consecutive trading session. Buyers have so far managed to maintain the 1.0775 level. In addition to positive economic data supporting the strength of the US economy, the US dollar is bolstered by rising expectations of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming US presidential election. Traders now focus on preliminary US Q3 GDP data due on Wednesday and the core PCE price index for September, a crucial inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, scheduled for release on Thursday. The US nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, potentially increasing market volatility. Overall, the US dollar remains stable as signs of steady economic growth have reduced expectations of a sharp Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Market participants now believe that after starting the easing cycle with a sizeable 50-basis-point cut in September, the regulator will limit itself to a more moderate 25-basis-point move in November. The market estimates the likelihood of such a reduction at 95%, which, as part of today’s EURUSD forecast, continues to weigh on the euro. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 30 Author Report Share Posted October 30 Gold (XAUUSD) hit a new all-time high today, hovering above 2,780 USD XAUUSD prices have completed a correction and are steadily rising, surpassing the previous all-time high of 2,758 USD. A triangle pattern has formed on the instrument chart. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 October 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting the US labour market statistics this week, including the ADP report, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway, with a triangle pattern formed on the chart XAUUSD forecast for 30 October 2024: 2,758 and 2,800 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes continue to trade in an uptrend, reaching another all-time high around 2,790 USD today. A downward correction is complete, and growth is likely to resume. The precious metal appears buoyant, supported by robust demand from central banks and investors. The current Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting cycle, high geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflict escalation in the Middle East, and the upcoming US presidential election in November are all factors strengthening the prices of Gold. US employment statistics from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) are scheduled for release during today’s American session. If data exceeds the forecast (+115,000 jobs), the US dollar will receive support, and the XAUUSD pair may enter a local correction again. If data falls short of the forecast, this will drive further growth in the XAUUSD pair. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted October 31 Author Report Share Posted October 31 USDJPY: BoJ left the interest rate at its highest level since 2008 The USDJPY rate has declined, securing below the 152.65 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 31 October 2024 USDJPY forecast: key trading points The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008 The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3, slightly below the forecasted 3.0%, with personal consumption and sales figures remaining high Investors cautiously await Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data USDJPY forecast for 31 October 2024: 152.40 and 150.80 Fundamental analysis At its two-day meeting, which concluded on Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This result aligned with analysts’ expectations that monetary policy would remain unchanged, exerting pressure on the USDJPY rate. This year, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate twice, in March and July. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has already warned of increasing uncertainty in the global economy, noting that the regulator has time to thoroughly analyse risks without hastily tightening monetary policy. Traders are now scrutinising information from the BoJ chief’s post-meeting briefing, looking for hints about the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes. According to the quarterly survey, the Bank of Japan maintains its inflation outlook and expects inflation to remain close to the 2.0% target level in the coming years. The projected core inflation rate, excluding food prices, remains at 2.5%. Investors are now cautiously awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payroll data and next week’s US presidential election. Meanwhile, the ADP report recorded a surge in private-sector employment in October, indicating labour market resilience. The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3 2024, slightly falling short of the forecasted 3.0%. However, solid growth in personal consumption and high sales figures confirm consumer activity, which may support the US dollar as part of today’s USDJPY forecast. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 1 Author Report Share Posted November 1 EURUSD undergoes a correction ahead of a key US employment report The EURUSD rate is falling after rebounding from the 1.0885 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 1 November 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since May, coming in at 216,000 Traders forecast gains of 113,000 jobs in the employment report US personal income rose by 0.3% in September 2024, with spending increasing by 0.5% On an annual basis, growth in US personal consumption expenditures slowed to the lowest level since February 2021 EURUSD forecast for 1 November 2024: 1.0922 and 1.0960 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate declines after rising for four days. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment report, which is expected to confirm the resilience of the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the presidential election. The US employment statistics for October close the current trading week, and traders expect 113,000 jobs to be created. However, recent natural disasters may affect the final reading, increasing the likelihood of deviation from forecasts. A muted market reaction to the report will help the EURUSD maintain its current trend as part of today’s forecast. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since May. The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits decreased by 12,000 to 216,000, while analysts predicted an increase to 230,000 on average. Additionally, in September 2024, US personal income rose by 0.3% from August, while spending by Americans increased by 0.5%. Last month, the PCE index was up 0.2% compared to the previous month. The annual index growth rate slowed to 2.1%, marking the lowest since February 2021. This indicates potentially easing inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 4 Author Report Share Posted November 4 USDJPY rose: a crucial week begins The USDJPY pair is undergoing a correction, with the US dollar retreating ahead of the US presidential election. Find out more in our analysis for 4 November 2024. USDJPY forecast: key trading points The USDJPY pair declines Safe-haven assets are in demand this week USDJPY forecast for 4 November 2024: 151.00 and 150.80 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate fell to 151.75 on Monday. The Japanese yen has gained an opportunity to strengthen while the US dollar retreats in anticipation of this week’s US presidential election. The next five business days will be tense, with the US presidential campaign nearing its conclusion and the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting. The market will require strength and safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points. Last week, the Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% per annum. The central bank is pausing a series of adjustments in monetary conditions as it assesses the risks of a political imbalance in Japan. This adds to the uncertainty regarding the country’s fiscal policy. The interest rate may change in January, but several key economic indicators will be released by then. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 5 Author Report Share Posted November 5 EURUSD awaits the news, with the focus on the US presidential election The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase. A critical moment is approaching. Find out more in our analysis for 5 November 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points The EURUSD pair is consolidating Initial, accurate data on the US presidential election will emerge a few days after the vote EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2024: 1.0950 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD rate is hovering around the level of 1.0878 on Tuesday. The stock market holds varied opinions on who will win the US presidential election. Over the weekend, Donald Trump was the favourite, and the US dollar was rising. Now, support has shifted to Kamala Harris. The major currency pair will undoubtedly experience increased volatility this week. The only question is its direction. According to stock market consensus, the US dollar could decline by 1-2% if Harris wins, and it may rise significantly if Trump emerges victorious. The election winner will only be known a few days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump will likely challenge any signs of defeat, as he did in 2020. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 6 Author Report Share Posted November 6 USDCAD resumed growth: the market is watching the US election results The USDCAD pair is confidently rising, with the US dollar in demand as the majority of votes favour Trump. More details in our analysis for 6 November 2024. USDCAD forecast: key trading points The USDCAD pair surges The market is following the first reports on the US presidential election USDCAD forecast for 6 November 2024: 1.3950 Fundamental analysis The USDCAD rate rose to 1.3921 on Wednesday. Although the pair declined yesterday evening, the situation changed today with the release of the first US presidential election results. The US dollar is in strong demand as presidential candidate Donald Trump gains more votes than his opponent, Kamala Harris. Canadian statistics remain off the market’s radar. However, the private sector PMI rose to 50.7 points following a four-month decline. Oil prices also increased after OPEC+ decided to postpone its planned output increase. Although these factors support CAD’s fundamental strength, fortune favours the USD today. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 7 Author Report Share Posted November 7 AUDUSD recouped mid-week’s losses The AUDUSD pair is rising on Thursday, with the Aussie supported by the RBA’s stance. More details in our analysis for 7 November 2024. AUDUSD forecast: key trading points The AUDUSD pair halted its rapid decline A tough RBA stance helped reduce this week’s losses AUDUSD forecast for 7 November 2024: 0.6688 Fundamental analysis The AUDUSD rate recovered on Thursday, reaching 0.6620. The Australian dollar has successfully recouped nearly all recent losses, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish outlook and market optimism over potential measures to stimulate the Chinese economy. The AUDUSD pair fell by 1.9% yesterday due to pressure from a strong US dollar following Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US presidential election. The RBA left the interest rate unchanged this week and signalled that monetary policy would remain restrictive for some time, supporting the AUD position. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted November 8 Author Report Share Posted November 8 Gold (XAUUSD) found support around 2,643 USD XAUUSD prices declined to 2,643 USD as part of a correction amid the US dollar’s strengthening, driven by the US election. The asset encountered strong demand at this level and is attempting to reverse upwards. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 8 November 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: Donald Trump confidently won the US presidential election Market focus: the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25% Current trend: a local correction is underway as part of the uptrend XAUUSD forecast for 8 November 2024: 2,643 and 2,710 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes continue to trade within a local correction, after which upward momentum is expected to resume. The decline in Gold prices was due to the growth of the US dollar, supported by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. At yesterday’s meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to lower the interest rate by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations. In its accompanying statement, the US Fed noted that labour market conditions have generally improved, and inflation continues to gradually move towards the 2.0% target. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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