RBFX Support Posted June 4 Author Report Share Posted June 4 EUR has surged. Overview for 04.06.2024 The primary currency pair continues to climb higher on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0908. The US dollar has retreated to its lowest value since 21 March as signs of persisting weakening in the US economy strengthen arguments for an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in May decreased to 48.7 points from the previous 49.2, falling short of expectations. According to the LSEG monitor, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is currently estimated at 59.1% compared to 55.0% on Friday. This anticipation is further heightened by growing expectations, which were no more than 50.0% early last week. The employment market data for May, particularly the wage parameters, which are significant in the context of inflation, will be crucial this week. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting will conclude on 12 June, and the latest consumer price data will be released that day. Although no risk is expected at this meeting, the Federal Reserve must update its economic forecasts. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 5 Author Report Share Posted June 5 EURUSD corrected itself. Overview for 05.06.2024 The major currency pair stabilised on Wednesday after surging earlier. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0877. The market is gathering strength ahead of Friday’s US employment market report. Investors are currently interpreting isolated signals, with the previous day’s surprising data from the April job openings report still fresh in their minds. The report revealed a significant drop, reaching its lowest level in three years. Specifically, JOLTS statistics showed that job vacancies decreased by 296 thousand, totalling 8.059 million, the lowest value since February 2021. Investors usually do not pay much attention to such a release, but it has gained attention because the market is concerned about the tone of Friday’s data on the labour market. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have risen by 185 thousand in May compared to April’s 175 thousand. A weak employment report is good news for the US Federal Reserve, providing more arguments for a rate cut. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 6 Author Report Share Posted June 6 CAD has strengthened. Overview for 06.06.2024 The Canadian dollar, paired with the US dollar, has strengthened. The current USDCAD exchange rate stands at 1.3678. In the medium term, the pair remains within a wide sideways channel. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate for the first time in four years to 4.75% per annum from the previous 5.00%. The regulator cited the progress achieved in its battle against inflation as an argument for this decision. According to the Bank of Canada’s press release, the core Consumer Price Index is declining, providing a reason to abandon restrictive monetary policy. At least four inflation components improved significantly, including core inflation, the core price index with its median and average values, and the 3-month moving average. Some CPI components rose by over 3%, close to a historical average value. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 7 Author Report Share Posted June 7 JPY takes a pause. Overview for 07.06.2024 The Japanese yen is stable against the US dollar on Friday. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 155.57. Investors refrain from making significant decisions ahead of next week's BoJ meeting. The regulator is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. The market is closely monitoring monthly bond purchases. A potential reduction in figures could signal a gradual tightening of monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed this week that the central bank will gradually reduce its extensive balance sheet. The timing of such an undertaking remains uncertain. In March 2024, the Bank of Japan phased out its negative interest rate policy, which had been in place for eight years. At the same time, it scrapped its yield curve control program as Japan set its sights on normalising monetary policy. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 10 Author Report Share Posted June 10 EUR fell to a four-week low. Overview for 10.06.2024 The primary currency pair continues to plummet on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0795. The euro faced two substantial pressure factors. Firstly, there were political developments in France, where the pro-presidential forces lost the European Parliament elections to the far-right. French President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections after his party’s defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right, which crushed it by nearly half. Secondly, investors have adjusted their expectations about the Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory following Friday’s US employment market statistics. In anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting this week, the impact of such a driver is considerably strong. Non-farm payrolls expanded by 272 thousand last month from the previous 165 thousand, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.0% from 3.9% in April. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% m/m in May, twice as high as the April reading. The EURUSD pair will experience very high volatility this week. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 11 Author Report Share Posted June 11 GBP attempts to rise. Overview for 11.06.2024 The British pound sterling is trying to rise against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2736. The pound has stabilised after hitting a new local low last week. The UK employment market data, industrial production, construction activity, and trade balance figures are due for release. The data are expected to confirm an economic slowdown in April. The unemployment rate will likely remain at 4.30%, and average earnings are anticipated to increase by 5.70%. At its next meeting on 20 June, the Bank of England will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per annum, its peak since 2008. UK inflation is clearly reducing, but not fast enough. Additionally, there is some uncertainty about the country’s elections in early July, which may exert pressure on the pound. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 12 Author Report Share Posted June 12 EURUSD declines. Overview for 12.06.2024 The primary currency pair is dropping lower on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0740. Political instability in France is significantly impacting the euro. President Emmanuel Macron’s position has become shaky following the far-right party’s victory in the European Parliament elections. Rumours are circulating that Macron might also lose the forthcoming elections, which would jeopardise France’s financial stability. This factor is now adding to the euro’s imbalance. The US Federal Reserve meeting is underway. The decision on the interest rate will be announced on Wednesday evening, and it is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25% per annum. The market is keen for fresh and relevant assessments of the economy and outlook. The most crucial information the financial world awaits is the timing of the first easing of monetary conditions, with general forecasts currently referring to November. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 13 Author Report Share Posted June 13 EURUSD experienced significant volatility. Overview for 13.06.2024 The primary currency pair is looking for support after a turbulent rise on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0805. Yesterday, the EURUSD pair faced a massive flow of data from both the US Federal Reserve and statistical reports. The Fed’s June meeting ended neutrally, with the interest rate remaining at 5.25% per annum, which was in line with expectations. However, the Federal Reserve’s comments, hinting at a rate cut this year closer to December, and the perceived aggressiveness of the Fed’s rhetoric regarding steps in 2025, have left the market in a state of anticipation for an active interest rate reduction. The US Consumer Price Index dropped in May, exceeding forecasts. Inflation stood at 3.3% year-on-year, remaining flat on a month-to-month basis. Core inflation decreased to 3.4% year-on-year from the previous 3.6%. This development indicates the easing of price pressure, a positive signal for the economy and the Federal Reserve. The market has become overly sensitive to statistical data releases. The US Federal Reserve created this foundation, having previously stated that it planned to gather as much data as possible to identify patterns. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted June 14 Author Report Share Posted June 14 JPY is under pressure. Overview for 14.06.2024 The Japanese yen is declining against the US dollar on Friday. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 157.85. The Bank of Japan concluded its meeting, opting to maintain its current monetary policy structure, keeping the interest rate at zero. In its comments, the BoJ stated that it would maintain the parameters for purchasing Japanese government bonds at the levels agreed in March. This disappointed investors who were expecting signals towards a reduction in bond purchases. Previously, the Governor of the Bank of Japan did not rule out a gradual reduction of its enormous balance sheet in the form of government bonds but did not specify any timelines. In March 2024, the Bank of Japan tightened monetary policy for the first time in seven years, moving the interest rate from negative territory to zero. Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 1 Author Report Share Posted July 1 GBP continues to strengthen following a decline The GBPUSD pair is strengthening its position following the release of the house price indices. It is likely to undergo a correction ahead of a further decline. GBPUSD trading key points The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (y/y) in June 2024 increased by 0.2% The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (m/m) in June 2024 decreased by 0.2% The GBPUSD targets: 1.2600, 1.2500 GBPUSD fundamental analysis The UK released its year-on-year and month-on-month house price indices for June 2024 on Monday, 1 July 2024. The figure increased slightly by 0.2% year-on-year and declined by 0.2% month-on-month, which did not prevent the pound from strengthening against the US dollar. The consumer and mortgage lending figures will also be published today. However, given their low importance, the data will not significantly impact the GBPUSD rate. US manufacturing PMI data is due during the second half of the European trading session. While the forecast suggests growth, the actual data release will confirm this, which may exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 2 Author Report Share Posted July 2 USDJPY analysis: the yen continues to lose ground The USDJPY pair continues its ascent, with no significant correction expected in the near term. USDJPY trading key points 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction – 1.091% Japan’s monetary base (y/y) – 0.6% USDJPY targets: 163.30, 158.90, 157.40 USDJPY fundamental analysis The 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction did not help the yen. The USDJPY rate continues its ascent. Insignificant news does not rescue the yen from depreciation at this stage. Japanese authorities’ actions are widely viewed as playing for a rival, with attempts to strengthen the yen ending with another increase in the USDJPY rate. Bulls are aggressive and seem to have a clear strategy – to make the most of the yen’s depreciation. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 3 Author Report Share Posted July 3 EURUSD continues to strengthen in anticipation of speeches by the ECB and FOMC officials The EURUSD pair is rising ahead of upcoming ECB and FOMC data. After the release of the FOMC minutes, another corrective wave may follow. EURUSD trading key points The eurozone services PMI is projected at 52.6, lower than the previous 53.2 A speech by ECB official Philip R. Lane A speech by FOMC member John C. Williams US nonfarm payrolls: prior reading of 152,000 and a forecast of 163,000 US initial jobless claims: previous reading of 233,000 and a forecast of 234,000 A speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde FOMC minutes release EURUSD fundamental analysis The EURUSD pair continues to strengthen on the news. The euro awaits speeches by ECB official Philip R. Lane, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and FOMC member John C. Williams, which may adjust the EURUSD rate and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise, and initial jobless claims are expected to increase as well. At this stage, it can be preliminarily concluded that these indicators will not significantly impact the EURUSD rate. The FOMC minutes will be released at the end of the US trading session, potentially increasing volatility and temporarily supporting the EUR. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 4 Author Report Share Posted July 4 JPY is gaining momentum, with the US economy slowing The USDJPY rate is declining ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. EURUSD trading key points The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm US economic slowdown The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September increased to 68% from 56% Traders are awaiting the release of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report USDJPY fundamental analysis The US dollar declines on Thursday, influenced by weak economic indicators. Investors believe there is a gradual turn in the flow of US economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm economic slowdown and easing inflationary pressure. Market expectations about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose to 68% from 56% a week earlier. Traders may adjust positions in anticipation of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, a key indicator for assessing the economy’s state. This may be the primary reason behind the USDJPY pair’s current decline. Overall, investors continue to monitor the JPY closely, considering the possibility of a currency intervention by the Japanese government. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stated that the goal of a potential intervention will not be the yen rate but its excessive volatility. Current market conditions do not meet the criteria for Japanese authorities to intervene. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 5 Author Report Share Posted July 5 Gold (XAUUSD) is strengthening ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release Gold price is steadily rising, with market participants focusing on today's US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. XAUUSD trading key points Current trend: gold is steadily rising after reaching a daily resistance level at 2,368 USD Market focus: today, market participants focus on US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate Price dynamics: XAUUSD quotes are consolidating slightly below the 2,368 USD level during the European trading session Fundamental analysis Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4%. Following the release of US employment market statistics, volatility in XAUUSD quotes may surge. Depending on the upcoming data, they might continue their growth to new local highs or correct downwards following their previous rise. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 8 Author Report Share Posted July 8 Wage growth in Japan accelerates The USDJPY rate is correcting on Monday amid the highest US employment rate since November 2021. The pair could not drop below the 160.20 support level. USDJPY trading key points Earnings in Japan reached their highest level since January US job growth decreased to the lowest seen since November 2021 USDJPY price targets: 160.00, 159.30, and 158.70 Fundamental analysis Earnings in Japan increased by 1.9% year-over-year in May 2024, marking the highest reading since January. However, the indicator is yet to catch up with inflation. As a result, real wages in the country continued to decrease for 26 consecutive months, preventing the BoJ from achieving the desired rise in prices and earnings and impeding the normalisation of monetary policy. The revised Q3 data on US job growth may negatively impact the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. In June, the unemployment rate reached its highest level since November 2021. Traders expect the first Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in September, followed by further quarterly cuts to a final rate of 3.25-3.50% Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 USDCAD finds equilibrium, but the Canadian dollar remains strong Investors in the USDCAD pair are assessing the latest statistics and forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s actions will determine further movements. USDCAD trading key points The market is considering Canada’s employment market statistics The Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at every meeting until the end of 2024 USDCAD price targets: 1.3696, 1.3600, 1.3530, and 1.3473 Fundamental analysis The Canadian dollar has stabilised against the US dollar after strengthening markedly in July. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.3635. Investors were prompted to react to last week’s Canadian employment market statistics release. The unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 6.2% in June, with the economy losing approximately 1,400 jobs. Although this is not the largest possible loss, signs of economic weakness are increasing. The USD’s depreciation also contributed to the previous drop in the USDCAD pair. The slowing US economy is causing widespread concern, intensifying the focus on interest rates. The likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut at its July meeting is estimated at 60%. If this occurs, it will mark the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, with markets anticipating a total reduction of 55 basis points by the end of the year. If the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates again on 24 July, the market will likely interpret this as a signal for further cuts at each subsequent meeting unless unforeseen events happen. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 (edited) CHF is under pressure: the SNB may lower the rate twice this year The USDCHF rate declined on Wednesday, 10 July 2024. The pair reacted weakly to the Federal Reserve chair’s speech, and the current USDCHF exchange rate is 0.8971. USDCHF trading key points SNB is poised for two rate cuts this year The Swiss regulator is clearly discontent with the rising national currency’s rate USDCHF price target: 0.8930 Fundamental analysis The USDCHF currency pair has closely approached the 0.8967 support level. Investors are analysing yesterday’s comments from Jerome Powell, stating that the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower interest rates until it is confident inflation is steadily moving towards 2%. However, Q1 data does not add to confidence. On the other hand, traders expect the Swiss National Bank to cut rates twice this year to withstand the franc’s potential strengthening. Although the SNB clearly expressed its discontent with the strength of the national currency, a decline in the rate should be limited. On the upside, should inflation rise unexpectedly, the central bank is ready to intervene in the currency market situation if necessary. Investors estimate the likelihood of another SNB rate cut in September at 50% as Switzerland’s recent consumer price index report fell short of expectations again. This may significantly support the US dollar against the franc. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Edited July 10 by RBFX Support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 11 Author Report Share Posted July 11 USDJPY is rising amid uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions The USDJPY rate closely approached weekly highs on Thursday, 11 July 2024. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 161.68. USDJPY trading key points Uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions: traders awaiting a rate hike Japan’s machinery orders: unexpected decrease of 3.2% in May USDJPY price targets: 162.00 and 162.52 Fundamental analysis Intrigue regarding the pace of monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan remains. Markets anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in late July in an attempt to curb the yen’s weakening. Analysts’ opinions vary, with some believing this will not be enough to halt USDJPY growth in the long term. Japan’s Ministry of Finance officials reiterated their readiness for currency market interventions. Although they currently have a limited effect, they help to keep the yen weakening slowly and moderately. Recent data showed an unexpected 3.2% (m/m) decline in Japan’s core machinery orders in May, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This is another signal favouring a further decline in the yen’s rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 12 Author Report Share Posted July 12 Yen’s sharp strengthening: due to currency intervention or faith in the yen? The USDJPY pair has declined, and investors continue to speculate whether this was driven by hidden financial intervention or unfavourable news from the US. USDJPY trading key points Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) in Japan: previously at 37.69%, currently at 37.63% Japan’s industrial production (m/m): previously at -0.9%, currently at 3.6% CFTC JPY speculative net positions: previously at -184.2 thousand USDJPY price targets: 159.70 and 157.22 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate continues to decline today, 12 July 2024. The sharp strengthening of the yen has raised many questions with few answers. Some investors suggest the Bank of Japan has conducted hidden currency intervention, while others believe this was a reaction to US fundamental news. Either way, players who bet on a decline in the USDJPY pair generated profit. The primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) data has already been released, showing that the index remained practically unchanged and probably had no impact on the quotes. Despite a 0.9% fall in the previous month, industrial production in May increased by 3.6%, exceeding the expectations of a 2.8% rise and impacting the yen’s strengthening. By increasing industrial production, Japan may strengthen its currency without resorting to overt financial intervention. A likely scenario for further yen strengthening could be the BoJ’s comprehensive approach, which would involve solving challenges with inflation and prices for consumer goods and services and covert currency intervention until it is officially announced. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 15 Author Report Share Posted July 15 Elon Musk’s ambitious projects could elevate Tesla to a new level. Is it worth investing in its stock now? Over the past 30 days, the yield on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares has exceeded 48%. Elon Musk has grand plans for the company’s future. Is it worth investing in Tesla stock now? What can prevent Musk from implementing his ambitious plans? Find out more in this article. Tesla shares have experienced a prolonged decline since January 2024, with the price falling by more than 50% in four months. The price decline could be driven by Tesla’s refusal to pay compensation of approximately 55 billion USD to Elon Musk, who threatened to leave the company. The situation changed radically on 13 June when the annual shareholder meeting approved this payment. Since that day, the stock price has significantly recovered, rising nearly 50% in just one month. Tesla Inc revenue streams Tesla Inc generates revenue through various sources reflecting the diversity of its products and services. The main ones are listed below: Automotive sales – this includes direct sales to consumers and rentals Regulatory credits – selling regulatory credits to other car makers who need them to comply with environmental standards Energy generation and storage – producing and selling solar energy systems and energy storage devices such as Powerwall (for domestic use), Powerpack (for commercial use), and Megapack (for large-scale energy storage) Services and others – service and repair centres, the Supercharger network, and insurance services for Tesla electric vehicle owners Software and autonomous driving – fees for advanced driver assistance systems (Autopilot), the full self-driving unit (FSD), and software updates Tesla Inc Q1 2024 financial performance Today is 15 July 2024, meaning that the second quarter of the year is over. However, Tesla will only release its Q2 report on 23 July, so we will now analyse Q1 2024 indicators. Below is the Q1 2024 financial performance data compared to Q1 2023. Key data: Total revenues – 21.30 billion USD (a 9% decrease) Net profit – 1.10 billion USD (a 55% fall) Earnings per share – 0.34 USD (a 53% decrease) Operating margin – 5.5% (a fall of 592 basis points) Capital expenditures – 2.77 billion USD (a 34% increase) Tesla Inc promising business areas In January 2024, the Delaware (US) court invalidated a compensation package worth 55 billion USD payable to Elon Musk for his role as Tesla’s CEO. Musk criticised this decision and threatened to leave the company unless he received the compensation. He later changed Tesla’s registration from Delaware to Texas. At the annual shareholder meeting in June 2024, Musk’s compensation package issue was raised again and was approved. Although the real reasons behind this decision can only be speculated upon, it is evident that shareholders are placing another bet on Elon Musk, expecting the company’s further growth under his leadership. Robotaxi Tesla is actively developing a robotaxi service, where autonomous cars provide transportation services without involving drivers. In the future, Tesla electric car owners will be able to add their vehicles to the robotaxi network when not in personal use and earn money by renting them out as taxis. Consumers will be able to order Tesla robotaxis by using a mobile app similar to Uber and Lyft taxi services. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 16 Author Report Share Posted July 16 JPY loses ground after strengthening Yen’s attempts to strengthen failed. The Japanese currency continues to lose ground against the US dollar. USDJPY trading key points Japan’s services PMI (m/m): previously at 2.2%, currently at -0.4% US core retail sales index (m/m): previously at -0.1%, forecasted at 0.1% US retail sales (m/m): previously at 0.1%, forecasted at -0.3% USDJPY price targets: 155.00 and 154.55 Fundamental analysis After attempting to strengthen against the US dollar, the yen begins to lose ground. Japan’s services PMI (m/m) was forecasted to be positive but decreased to -0.4%, affecting the USDJPY rate not in favour of the yen. The US core retail sales index and retail sales are projected to rise slightly. After the release of actual data, this may help strengthen the US dollar against the yen. However, actual values could be worse than forecasted. In this case, the USDJPY rate may continue to decline as part of a corrective wave. Hopes for the yen’s strengthening and stabilisation are fading away every day. Although currency intervention can save the yen, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for it. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 17 Author Report Share Posted July 17 China’s sluggish domestic demand and economic slowdown jeopardise oil prices Brent crude oil prices fall on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, declining for the fourth consecutive trading session. Brent trading key points Declining demand in China: oil imports decreased to 46.45 million tons in June A slowdown in China’s GDP growth: GDP growth rates in Q2 fell to 4.7% Brent price targets: 85.90 and 87.72 Fundamental analysis Recent data on China’s oil imports and GDP growth rates raised concerns in the global oil market. Oil imports to China, which is the world’s largest consumer of crude hydrocarbons, declined to 46.45 million tons in June, indicating sluggish domestic demand in the country. The slowdown in China’s GDP growth rates to 4.7% in Q2, below the 5.3% recorded in Q1, adds to pessimism. The Chinese economy has traditionally been the driver of global economic activity and fuel demand. The weakening of these indicators could lead to oil oversupply in the market, which will negatively impact the prices. Although the Chinese authorities are taking action to stimulate the economy, it is not clear how quickly these measures will help revive fuel demand. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 Gold (XAUUSD) could reach new all-time highs amid US news Gold continues to rise on Thursday, 18 July 2024, offsetting Wednesday’s correction. XAUUSD trading key points The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (US): previously at 1.3%, forecasted at 2.7% A speech by US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Mary C. Daly XAUUSD price targets: 2,434.84, 2,400.00, and 2,386.50 Fundamental analysis This week’s economic data showed a slight increase, helping the precious metal strengthen its position against the US dollar. XAUUSD quotes are maintaining their upward trajectory. US economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, is scheduled for release today. The indicator is projected to rise to 2.7% but it is difficult to foresee what will come. Weaker-than-expected data may exert pressure on the US dollar and push gold prices further up. A speech by US FOMC official Mary C. Daly last time negatively impacted the US dollar. Investors expect this speech to answer questions about future interest rate changes and inflation growth or slowdown rates. Any response from Mary C. Daly may trigger an immediate market reaction, potentially pushing the XAUUSD to new all-time highs. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 19 Author Report Share Posted July 19 Brent prices fall, driven by a sell-off of risky assets Brent crude oil prices are dropping again. The market has experienced sales growth amid falling prices for risky assets and the US dollar strengthening. Brent trading key points Brent prices are falling due to pressure from the US dollar China’s plenum did not outline measures to support the economy Brent price targets: 85.00, 85.40, 86.90, and 88.00 Fundamental analysis The commodity market was again under pressure, with a barrel of Brent crude oil falling to 84.73 USD on Friday. Investors took a more cautious stance when assessing the global economic outlook, resulting in sales in stock and commodity market sales, which contributed to the growth of the US dollar. Statistics showing stronger-than-expected growth in July’s industrial production and increased jobless claims amid seasonality also bolstered the USD. Commodity goods are generally believed to be less profitable to purchase amid USD growth. Chinese news failed to support the oil sector. China’s third plenum ended yesterday without providing any guidelines on measures to revive the country’s economy. As China is the world’s largest oil consumer, positive signals from this side could support commodity prices. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted July 22 Author Report Share Posted July 22 JPY is rising amid expectations of BoJ policy tightening The USDJPY rate declines on Monday morning, 22 July 2024, after a two-day growth. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 156.55. USDJPY trading key points Japan’s inflation continues to rise The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week USDJPY price targets: 158.28, 154.80, and 154.66 Fundamental analysis The Japanese yen is rising after rebounding from the 157.60 resistance level. Investors expect the BoJ to raise interest rates next week amid rising inflation. Consequently, the USDJPY rate has fallen by more than 2% over the past two weeks. Investors believe the Japanese government is already intervening in the currency market to support the national currency rate. The Bank of Japan’s data shows that the authorities could have purchased about 6 trillion yen a week ago. Although Japan’s inflation remained at 2.8% in June, the core index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 2.6%. This data reinforces traders’ view that the BoJ may start tightening monetary policy despite potential risks for the country’s weak economy. The possibility of the yen’s rate rising further in the near term persists. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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