roboforex Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RBFX Support]

XAUUSD consolidates near local highs ahead of employment data release

XAUUSD has moved into a technical correction after a two-day rally, with prices currently standing at 4,463 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Sustained demand from global central banks and uncertainty in the Middle East continue to provide long-term support for prices
• Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance have eased, putting pressure on the US dollar and increasing the appeal of the safe-haven precious metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2026: 4,695

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have entered a correction phase after rallying for two consecutive trading sessions. During this period, gold gained more than 2% and consolidated above the 4,400 USD resistance level. In the long term, XAUUSD remains supported by sustained demand from global central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller were a key driver of the rally. He said he could support keeping interest rates unchanged in September if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

[RBFX Support]

DE 40 shifts into a downtrend during the correction

The DE 40 resumed its decline after reaching a new all-time high. The index may continue to fall amid a negative fundamental backdrop.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• The DE 40 index has continued to decline since the end of last week
• The CPI rose by 0.2% in August, while the market expected a 0.3% increase, compared to a 0.8% rise in July
• DE 40 forecast for 7 September 2026: 25,800 or 26,630

Fundamental analysis

The DE 40 index entered a downtrend after a correction reversed the previous trend. The German index may move into a short-term sideways channel.

Germany’s consumer inflation data for August 2026 provides a mixed but moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

[RBFX Support]

US 500: focus on oil and the future path of Fed rates

The US 500 returned after the weekend with a moderate decline near 7,711. The market is closely watching oil price movements.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• The US 500 index may continue to rise, although sentiment after the long weekend does not look particularly strong
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week is estimated at around 60%
• US 500 forecast for 8 September 2026: 7,777

Fundamental analysis

The US 500 index is declining moderately on Tuesday after the long holiday weekend. High oil prices remain in focus, supporting inflation risks and fuelling concerns about the future path of interest rates.

Oil prices are rising after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Trade risks have added to pressure, with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on approximately 20 billion USD worth of US goods taking effect on Tuesday.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

[RBFX Support]

USDJPY hits new lows: the yen returns to last year’s levels

The yen continues to strengthen, with the USDJPY pair falling to a seven-month low. The USDJPY rate currently stands at 153.47. 

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Japan’s GDP data did not affect the USDJPY rate
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to around 62%
• The market is awaiting the release of US inflation data on Friday

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 9 September 2026 shows that Japan’s GDP data strengthens the fundamental case for further yen appreciation and puts pressure on the USDJPY pair. According to the released data, Japan’s economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, compared to a forecast of 0.3%, although the pace of growth slowed slightly from the previous 0.5%.

This factor is negative for the USDJPY rate. Rising rates in Japan are gradually narrowing the significant yield gap between US and Japanese assets, which in previous years was one of the main drivers of the yen’s weakness.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

[RBFX Support]

JP 225 falls for the third consecutive session amid rising oil prices and bond yields

The JP 225 index is declining for the third consecutive trading session, driven by rising oil prices, higher US bond yields, and a stronger yen. The price currently stands at 64,683.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• Rising oil prices are fuelling inflation risks and expectations of an imminent interest rate hike
• Additional pressure on Japanese stocks comes from higher US Treasury yields and the yen strengthening to a nearly seven-month high
• JP 225 forecast for 10 September 2026: 63,650

Fundamental analysis

The Nikkei 225 index is down by around 1% on Thursday, trading below 64,600 and marking its third consecutive session of declines. Rising oil prices are adding to pressure on the Japanese market, increasing inflation risks and supporting expectations of near-term monetary policy tightening.

Another negative factor is the weak performance of US stock indices. US Treasury yields rose after the US Treasury announced plans to buy back up to 6 billion USD of long-term debt. 

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

[RBFX Support]

US Tech rebounds from the lower boundary of the consolidation range

The US Tech is attempting to end a three-day losing streak, with the price currently at 29,279.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are being reassessed, increasing risks for the technology sector
• High oil prices are intensifying inflation risks, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary policy

Fundamental analysis

The US Tech index is attempting to recover after declining for three consecutive trading sessions. The price has almost reached the key support level at 29,000 and is attempting to recoup yesterday’s losses. Pressure on the technology sector increased after US government bond yields rose and stronger-than-expected wholesale price data was released.

The primary driver of the previous session’s sell-off was an acceleration in the annual growth rate of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) to 5.4% in August.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team