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Crash or opportunity? IMF meeting and falling LEI weigh on USDJPY

The IMF meeting and weak US LEI data may spark a correction in USDJPY before a potential drop to the 140.00 level. Full forecast for 21 April 2025 below.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • IMF Spring Meetings begin today
  • US Leading Economic Index (LEI): previous – -0.3%, forecast – -0.5%
  • USDJPY forecast for 21 April 2025: 140.00 and 141.50

Fundamental analysis

As of 21 April 2025, markets are focused on the start of the IMF Spring Meetings. Amid persistent global headwinds — including high inflation, geopolitical risks, and sluggish growth in major economies — this event may deliver crucial policy statements regarding global financial stability, support for developing economies, and central banks’ future strategies.

In parallel, attention is on the US Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of 10 indicators designed to forecast turning points in the economic cycle. It includes metrics like jobless claims, new orders, and consumer expectations.

A further decline in LEI to -0.5%, as forecasted, would reinforce fears of a slowing US economy or even a looming recession — potentially undermining the dollar and bolstering safe-haven demand for the yen.

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY remains fragile, with downside pressure likely to persist.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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EURUSD surges as pressure mounts on Jerome Powell

The EURUSD rate is gaining for the third consecutive trading session, currently trading at 1.1530. Find out more in our analysis for 22 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • President Donald Trump intensifies criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
  • Traders are concerned about growing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve
  • EURUSD forecast for 22 April 2025: 1.1630

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to rally after rebounding from the 1.1475 support level. Pressure on the US dollar has increased following fresh verbal attacks by President Donald Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Monday, Trump escalated his calls for immediate rate cuts.

Market participants are increasingly concerned about the rising tension between the White House and the Fed. Trump’s actions could be perceived as an attempt to pressure the Fed’s independence, with speculation around a possible replacement of Powell adding to uncertainty and fear in the market, undermining confidence in the US dollar.

Additional support for the EURUSD rally came from investor disappointment over stalled US-China trade negotiations. Beijing accused Washington of misusing tariffs and warned other nations about entering trade deals with the US, which has increased tensions and further weighed on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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