RBFX Support Posted Monday at 01:14 PM Author Report Share Posted Monday at 01:14 PM Gold (XAUUSD) corrects towards 2,650 USD XAUUSD prices rose above 2,720 USD last week but could not sustain that level, entering a correction. This week, the market will focus on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 16 December 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: market participants are awaiting a Federal Reserve interest rate decision at a meeting on Wednesday Current trend: downward correction XAUUSD forecast for 16 December 2024: 2,720 and 2,630 Fundamental analysis Gold showed mixed movements last week. It rose steadily at the beginning of the week but then retraced back as part of a correction following the release of US inflation statistics (the CPI and PPI), which recorded higher-than-expected growth rates. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its regular meeting this week, during which a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is anticipated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 97.1% probability to this cut. Subsequent comments from the regulator regarding future interest rate plans will be crucial for Gold prices. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Author Report Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM USDCHF: the Swiss franc continues to lose ground against the US dollar A rise in US industrial production and retail sales could drive the USDCHF rate up to 0.9040. More details in our analysis for 17 December 2024. USDCHF forecast: key trading points SECO economic forecasts for Switzerland US retail sales (m/m): previously 0.4%, projected at 0.6% US industrial production (m/m): previously -0.29%, projected at 0.10% USDCHF forecast for 17 December 2024: 0.9040 Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis for 17 December 2024 takes into account that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release updated economic growth forecasts today. The previous forecast, published on 19 September 2024, expected GDP growth of 1.1%, significantly below the average. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%, and the 2025 outlook was reduced to 0.7%. Today’s SECO report will provide the latest data on economic conditions and the outlook for 2025. The forecast for 17 December 2024 suggests that US retail sales may rise to 0.6%. Actual data may differ from expectations; however, increased sales in November may support the US dollar. US industrial production is also projected to rise to a positive level from the previous -0.29%, with the forecast for 17 December 2024 suggesting a production level of 0.10%. Although this is a modest increase, it may instil hope in investors. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Wednesday at 11:43 AM Author Report Share Posted Wednesday at 11:43 AM Gold (XAUUSD) remains within the range: the Fed is in the spotlight Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating around 2,650 USD, with the market awaiting news from the Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 18 December 2024. XAUUSD forecast: key trading points Market focus: Gold (XAUUSD) remains flat without any news from the Federal Reserve Current trend: the asset’s prospects depend on the Federal Reserve signals for 2025 XAUUSD forecast for 18 December 2024: 2,690.00 and 2,735.25 Fundamental analysis Gold (XAUUSD) prices hover around 2,650 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday. Consolidation is a natural development ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed’s December meeting will conclude this evening. The baseline scenario suggests a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut. The market will look for clues about how the Fed intends to act in 2025 amid multiple uncertainties around monetary policy and the country’s economy. Gold prices have risen 28% this year, which could be the highest annual gain since 2010 by the end of the year. This was primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing, demand for safe-haven assets, and systematic purchases of Gold by global central banks. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM EURUSD declines after Powell’s comments The EURUSD rate retreated sharply to 1.0350 following the US Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent comments from Jerome Powell. Find out more in our analysis for 19 December 2024. EURUSD forecast: key trading points The US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25% Stock markets are in negative territory, while the US dollar strengthens after the Fed’s decision EURUSD forecast for 19 December 2024: 1.0400 and 1.0330 Fundamental analysis The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% following its two-day meeting on 17-18 December. The decision was expected, but subsequent comments from the regulator’s chief and new economic forecasts adversely affected the stock market (the S&P 500 index fell by 3% at once), strengthening the US dollar against all other currencies. The US dollar strengthened mainly due to the Fed’s revision of its inflation outlook for 2024 and 2025. Inflation is projected to run at 2.4% at the end of 2024, up from 2.3% in the September release. The Federal Reserve expects inflation in 2025 to be 2.5%, up from 2.1% in the previous forecasts. At a press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the Fed’s current policy does not negatively affect the economy, allowing the regulator to adopt a more cautious approach to future actions. The Fed wants to see a tangible slowdown in inflation before implementing the next rate cut. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBFX Support Posted Friday at 10:28 AM Author Report Share Posted Friday at 10:28 AM The AUDUSD pair appears weak, but there are signals for recovery The AUDUSD pair declined to 0.6223, and recovering from the two-year low will not be easy. Find out more in our analysis for 20 December 2024. AUDUSD forecast: key trading points The AUDUSD pair remains at a two-year low The market is confident that the RBA is closer to an interest rate cut, which could happen as early as February 2025 AUDUSD forecast for 20 December 2024: 0.6239 and 0.6288 Fundamental analysis The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6223 on Friday. The pair remains at a two-year low and appears relatively weak from a fundamental perspective. The market believes the Reserve Bank of Australia will soon be ready for its first rate cut amid slowing economic activity. The rate could be lowered as early as February 2025, with the current level at 4.35% per annum. The minutes of the RBA’s previous meeting, due in December, may provide further insights into these plans. Externally, the AUD remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. This driver became more influential after the Federal Reserve announced its cautious plans to lower the interest rate next year. RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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