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[B]Date: 29th July 2026.[/B]

 

[B]Fed Decision, Oil Surge, and Big Tech Earnings: Markets Brace for Volatility.[/B]

 

 

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision this evening, keeping markets on edge. Economists still expect the committee to vote for a pause, but there continues to be a growing sense of uncertainty. Many institutions now believe the Federal Open Market Committee may hike under the influence of the new Fed chairman.

 

Over the past three days, there has been less pressure on the Federal Reserve to act fast as oil prices fell. This was due to a pause in hostilities in the Middle East. However, this came to an end early this morning, with Iran firing missiles from its territory, as well as from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. For this reason, Crude Oil prices rose 4.00% on Wednesday morning.

 

Crude Oil Spike To Pressure The Federal Reserve To Hike?

Crude oil’s bearish trend comes to a halt, with the price opening on a bullish price gap and trading 4.00% higher this morning. The US has told journalists that they intercepted missiles overnight at multiple bases in the Middle East. Jordan also said that 5 missiles had been fired towards its territory by Iran. According to reports, the United States and Saudi Arabia are conducting a joint operation targeting Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq following Iran's recent attack.

 

Although prices declined earlier in the week, the commodity market remains under pressure. Despite the pause in hostilities, key shipping routes in the Middle East remain closed. This includes the Straits of Hormuz and Strait of Bab Al-Mandab.

 

The price is forming a bullish flag pattern, which is understandable, taking into consideration the bullish volatility this morning. The bullish volatility has sent the price above most moving averages on the lower timeframes, and, due to the loss of volatility, has fallen to the neutral level on oscillators. However, if the price remains above $81.40, bullish signals can still arise.

 

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

 

Higher oil prices throughout today’s session are likely to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In addition to this, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 22,000 last week to 187,000. This is the lowest level since September 1969, giving the Fed more room to hike. However, the consensus still points to a pause for now, with a rate hike expected in September.

 

Gold Rises on China Demand, but for How Long?

Gold prices are rising this morning after finding support as the US Dollar retraces. Reports also continue that China is taking advantage of the lower price and positive exchange rate to boost its Gold portfolios and reserves.

 

China continues to buy large amounts of physical gold. In June, the country imported around 173 tonnes, the highest monthly total in two years, as lower gold prices and new import rules allowed banks to purchase more. Gold imports reached 163 tonnes in May, while imports during the first five months of 2026 climbed to 692 tonnes. This is 76% higher compared to the same period last year.

 

At the same time, Chinese investors pulled money out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at a record pace in June. According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF holdings fell by 15 billion yuan, with total assets dropping 16% to 243 billion yuan (around $36 billion), the lowest level since December 2025. Investors taking profits after gold’s strong rally drove prices lower, as did a stronger US Dollar.

 

Nonetheless, economists continue to advise that the longer-term price movement will depend on the Federal Reserve decision and the US Dollar. While the US Dollar Index remains firmly above 100.00, Gold may struggle to gain bullish momentum. If the price of Gold falls below $4,029.00, buy signals in the short term will quickly fade.

 

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

NASDAQ - Bubble and Credit Fears Remain

The price of the NASDAQ is experiencing impulse waves in both directions during this morning’s Asian session. However, the price remains weak and at risk of further downside. The price action over the next 48 hours will depend on the Fed’s rate decision, forward guidance, and major earnings reports.

 

In the US, the second-quarter earnings season continues this week, with major retail and technology companies reporting results. After the market close, Microsoft and Meta are both expected to post higher revenue and earnings, supported by AI-driven growth. However, economists advise that in order for the stocks to find support, companies need to ‘significantly’ beat expectations and not shock traders with extreme company borrowing to fund AI projects.

 

A key support level for the NASDAQ can be seen at $27,498.00, while the resistance level is visible at $28,039.55.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve, with a pause expected, but uncertainty continuing to grow. Many institutions now believe the Fed may opt for an early hike.
• Crude oil rose 4% after renewed Middle East tensions increased concerns over inflation and global supply disruptions.
• Gold found support from strong physical demand in China, despite record outflows from Chinese gold ETFs.
• The Federal Reserve’s decision and the US Dollar are expected to determine Gold's next major price move.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure as investors await the Fed decision and earnings from Microsoft and Meta.

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[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]

 

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[B]Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets[/B]

 

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