Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.07.2015 Sunday’s surprising news that the Greek public had voted “No” in the Greek referendum was followed on Monday by the news that the combative Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had resigned his position. Did he go under his own free will or was he pushed? For certain the European Finance Ministers and especially the German Wolfgang Schäuble will be relieved to see him go. However Varoufakis was good value and it is a shame that his expressive language and cool demeanour will no longer be a feature of the European scene. Varoufakis has been replaced by the academic Euclid Tsakalotos as the Minister of Finance. Mr. Tsakalotos is much more softly spoken and measured in his comments when compared to his predecessor. However under that mild demeanour and English accent is another strong and intelligent mind. There is no doubt that after Varoufakis had done his job of softening up the Europeans, it is now the job of Tsakalotos to lower the tone but at the same time negotiate hard. Mr. Tsakalotos will need to use all his skills and experience to bring about a compromise solution to the Greek debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister will be hoping too that Tsakalotos could reinstate the burnt bridges and bring back the trust that was lost with the announcement of the referendum. The Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras has a view that the Greek referendum victory has strengthen his negotiating hand. The Greek public and the bosses of the Greek banks are hoping that he can deliver on his promise to construct and agree on a compromise formula over the next few days. However it is still very uncertain if the Europeans will agree. As always the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem has been dismissive of the Greek side. The French side however has been more conciliatory in their position. What is of greater concern is an apparent hardening of the position of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Europe is now becoming increasingly divided. One side being resigned or actually encouraging the Greek to take a decision and leave the Euro area. On the other hand, Governments that fear for the consequences of a Grexit are concerned about the consequence could be if Greece finally and after 5 wasted years falls out of the Eurozone. Although the Lehman’s debacle in balance sheet terms was roughly double the size of the current Greek debt, unraveling the after effects of a debt default and Grexit is still unclear. This is one of the key cards that the Greek Prime holds. It is his hope that the Europeans will therefore be forced to act so as to mitigate the unknown or likely consequences of Greece falling out of the Euro. Furthermore if Greece ends up having no choice but to exit the Euro, the cost to the Europeans will be very high. Not only do European tax payers lose some Euro 330 billion but there will also be the longer term costs of shoring up the Euro area. Once Greece exits the Euro area, the concept of the irrevocability of Eurozone membership ceases to exist. This will lead to added pressure on other periphery countries and puts at risk Portugal, Span and Italy. Europe and by this I mean the Germans will be forced to shore up the defenses so that contagion does not bring other countries down. The cost of further fiscal and banking union will dwarf the cost of keeping Greece in the Euro. One final factor that needs to be addressed is that of Geo-politics. Greece is at the frontier of Europe’s eastern border. The neighbourhood that Greece resides in is far from stable. An exit from the Euro will leave a key NATO country exposed and without allies in the region. The concern will be that a European rejection will send Greece into the arms of the Russian bear. There has been some good news over the past few days in that all Greek political parties have backed any agreement that will be reached in Brussels. This eases the issue of implementation. It is now time for Europe to grasp the key issue of solidarity. The Euro was a flawed creation and continues to be a single currency that is not fit for purpose. It is time that the Euro’s deficiencies are recognized and fixes implemented for the sake of all of Europe’s citizens. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1174 Target 2: 1.0936 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5701 Target 2: 1.5505 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.5650 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 123.89 Target 2: 121.72 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9523 Target 2: 0.9325 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 0.9385 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2748 Target 2: 1.2550 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.2530 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7857 Target 2: 0.7411 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7550 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1181.13 Target 2: 1158.93 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.10 Daily control level: 1162.70 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/07072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 54.35 Target 2: 51.13 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61 Daily control level: 56.65 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.07.2015 With the deadline looming for the Greek debt proposal due no later than tomorrow morning and with crucial European summits due to take place over the weekend the level of uncertainty and anxiety continues to blanket Greece. This uncertainty has forced the Greek Government to extend the limit of EUR 60 a day ATM allowance until Monday. After Monday, the fate of the Greek people is in the hands of European and Greek politicians who have shown themselves incapable of making correct decisions. The move to extend the banking restrictions follows on from the decision by the European Central Bank to put on hold any further Emergency Liquidity Assistance until the debt crisis is resolved. With the Greek Prime Minister saying that he will present plans on Thursday to his European partners the end game of this phase of the Greek crisis is now very close. With the creditor’s position now hardening a failure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take into account the gravity of the situation will lead to dire consequences and immediate hardship for the Greek nation. One can only assume that a failure to broker a compromise solution after what has been 5 wasted and fruitless months of negotiations is that Alexis Tsipras never had an intention of striking a deal. The bottom line is the Greek Premier wanted from the outset is total European capitulation or a return to the Drachma. This may be a very harsh view. However the manner of the negotiation which can be summed up as a win or bust strategy was never going to work. There was just too much resistance within the European Union to what they saw a radical left Government that was intent to turn around the order of things. The Europeans made mistakes too. The original sin was of course the creation of a Frankenstein currency that destroyed the economies of the periphery European nations. The only nation to really benefit from the creation of the Euro was Germany which took the opportunity of the cheap single currency to export its way out of recession at the expense of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, aka the PIIGS. The debt deal that was constructed by the creditors was designed not to assist Greece but was engineered with the assistance of the IMF had only one aim in mind. That was to get the German and French banks off the hook. There was no attempt to help the Greek people and Greek business to grow themselves out of the mess that corrupt and inept politicians in partnership with the foreign banks had got the country into. There is a need of course to reform the public sector and pension system but Greece is a country that has no safety net. The austerity that was imposed on the country only damaged the Greek public. The German and French bankers and the leaders of the political elite of the PASOK and Nea Democratia party continue to live their life of privilege as they enjoyed their lavish villas and drive around in their high performance German automobiles. The election victory that SYRIZA achieved some 5 months back was inevitable as the Greek public had enough of the wasted opportunities of its political elite. When Tsipras took power, he proclaimed that reform was at the centre of his agenda. However evidence of this is nowhere to be seen. My real concern is not for Greek or European politicians but for the tax payers of Europe who have paid for the decisions and mistakes made in their name. Without doubt there is a need for change in Europe. I just hope that the politicians either side of this current divide recognize that they have an obligation to Europe’s citizens to get us out of this mess. I personal would like nothing more but never have to write about this subject again as it has become rather tedious. I therefore urge all sides to compromise enough to get us through to Monday. Once there, the real work of reforming Europe begins. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1203 Target 2: 1.0949 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127 Daily control level: 1.0900 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5469 Target 2: 1.5249 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5650 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.67 Target 2: 119.71 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9554 Target 2: 0.9350 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 0.9385 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2846 Target 2: 1.2644 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7518 Target 2: 0.7338 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7370 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1170.80 Target 2: 1145.88 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.46 Daily control level: 1175.30 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/09072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 53.59 Target 2: 50.05 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.77 Daily control level: 54.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.07.2015 Officials at the Greek Finance Ministry worked late into the night to put together a proposal that could be presented to its partners in the Eurozone and the IMF. Assistance in the preparation of the document was given by civil servants from the French Ministry of Finance. This assistance has highlighted the positive and very pro Greek stance the French Government has taken. The French and to a lesser extent the Italian Governments have been more conciliatory than their German partners towards the Greek Government. One is reminded from a “good cop, bad cop” scenario when one views the relationship France and Germany have to Greece. However Fräulein Merkel may disagree and say that all the German Government was doing was giving the Greek Government a taste of reality through a lot of tough love. With news being leaked of the contents of the referendum, one will be very surprised to hear that what the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras is now offering and what was signed off by the Greek Government very much resembles what the creditors had put on the table before. In fact, the Greek Proposal sets out much harsher conditions in many areas with an increase of austerity from EUR 8 to 13 billion. That the Greek Government has been the starting point of 5 months of market turmoil and that has seen its economy nose dive, leaving the Greek people in a state of perpetual hardship does lead me to ask a couple of pertinent questions. Why on earth did the Greek Government waste all that time in negotiating and why was a contentious referendum staged at a huge cost only for the democratic vote of the people to be ignored. Not one for conspiracy theories but my opinion is that all that has gone on before was a theatrical show for the citizens of the European Union. The show was staged to sensitize the voting and tax paying public of this Union to the idea that reform is needed. Conflict always creates chaos. However, conflict can also be a strong catalyst for change and reform. The Greek fiasco came at a time when the vulnerabilities of the Euro project became more and more apparent. The Greek debt crisis was that catalyst and at the same time the ultimate test of the Euro which highlighted these imbalances and negative economic effects. It can be hoped that work will now begin that plugs the gaps and fixes the problems which the single currency creates. Even if an agreement is signed off over the weekend, the Greek economy will be in for a rough couple of years. However with an appropriate amount of debt relief that brings the country’s obligations within manageable and viable levels we may just see the Greek economy in a few years’ time that is comprehensively reformed and one of the most modern with the European Union. As such this is a template for two much bigger projects. These are France and Italy. Both countries are in drastic need of reform. The benefit of the Greek issue has put European reform on the agenda. It is to be seen if the Europeans are courageous enough not to squander this opportunity. So how does all this leave Greece? Yesterday I wrote that I viewed the events of the past week as an orchestrated attempt by the Greek SYRIZA Government to trigger a Grexit. Proof of this would be the presentation of a plan which would have been rejected out of hand. That Alexis Tsipras from what early reports indicate has put forward an acceptable proposal shows that he is serious about getting a deal signed off. Is the Greek Prime Minister the biggest bluffer in the history of poker? Was his hand about to be called and did he fold in the knowledge that he could not win? It is not the simple. What Tsipras and recently resigned Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis achieved was to get the debate about Greek debt and European debt sustainability finally on the table. Moreover, they have linked this to one important issue. How can a country reform itself without destroying an economy? Furthermore, Alexis Tsipras has also driven a wedge that has split the creditors into two groups. One being the IMF, France and in the background Italy which wants to see debt viability as a key economic necessity and the other hand we have the Germans who keep banging the drum for austerity. There have also been splits elsewhere, most notably in Greece. The divide in the Greek public was shown during the recent referendum campaign. However what is of greater concern is the rapture with the ruling SYRIZA party. The split will be apparent today when the Greek Parliament votes on the legislation that ties this country’s future to the Euro. Today’s story is not over just yet. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1160 Target 2: 1.0900 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130 Daily control level: 1.0990 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5488 Target 2: 1.5268 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5350 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 122.32 Target 2: 120.33 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99 Daily control level: 120.40 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9581 Target 2: 0.9631 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 0.9500 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2802 Target 2: 1.2606 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7535 Target 2: 0.7357 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7370 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1171.16 Target 2: 1147.88 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.64 Daily control level: 1175.30 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/10072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 54.32 Target 2: 50.66 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83 Daily control level: 54.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.07.2015 Talks between European leaders lasted some 15 hours as an attempt was made to solve the Gordian Knot that is the Greek Financial crisis. The Greek Prime Minister is making desperate attempts to stave off his countries bankruptcy, however, the group of countries led by Germany and Finland have adopted a very harsh bargaining position. The Greek Government is being told to either ditch its principles or leaves the Euro. Alexis Tsipras must be feeling a great deal of strain this morning and it is obvious that this kind of pressure would make the best of us buckle under the pressure. The referendum victory of the “No” campaign did give the Greek Government a positive momentum. However, the mood soon changed as the hard line that the Europeans took left the Greek Government split and the Greek public deflated. With the German Chancellor telling reporters that she simply does not trust this Greek Government to stick to any agreement, it is hard to see how Alexis Tsipras can keep his job. Especially as back home in Greece he called an unnecessary referendum on austerity but then promptly decided to ignore the people’s vote. As for the SYRIZA party, there is a high probability that the internal conflict that was generated by the ongoing discussions between Greece and the countries creditors could see this alliance of the radical left fracture and break up. From a backdrop of haemorrhaging support at home and outright opposition from abroad, the Greek Prime Minister now has to push through one of the most contentious pieces of legislation that has ever been passed by the Greek Parliament. What the Europeans are asking from the Greek Government is a total surrender. Only by agreeing to the European demands can Alexis Tsipras hope to receive some Euro 80 to 85 billion from the Europeans. Without this new third bailout, the Greek Government will be cut adrift and have no choice but to leave the Euro area. Unfortunately for a long time successive Greek Governments have shied away from taking the harsh decisions which were needed to reform the country’s economy. It is very ironic that the Europeans and the IMF will now call upon a Greek Prime Minister who belongs to the radical left of the political spectrum to be their instrument to inflict austerity and with it misery and pain onto the citizens of his country. The Europeans and namely the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown no mercy to the Greece. Not only does the German and European Governments want legislation passed by Wednesday but they also require constant oversight that the Greeks are sticking to the word of the law. To drive home their message, the Europeans have also told the SYRIZA Government to reverse legislation that it passed on the outset of taking power. This includes once again closing down the state-run Greek national television station and the sacking of 4,000 public workers. The most notable symbol of these sackings would be state cleaners that had been made redundant by the previous administration. As I come the end of this it is now reported that a deal on Greece has been agreed. Is this a good deal for Greece and Europe. Only time will tell. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015EURUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1288 Target 2: 1.1032 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128 Daily control level: 1.1200 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5623 Target 2: 1.5399 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112 Daily control level: 1.5350 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 123.77 Target 2: 121.65 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06 Daily control level: 122.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9489 Target 2: 0.9277 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 0.9320 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2761 Target 2: 1.2555 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7531 Target 2: 0.7351 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7400 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1174.86 Target 2: 1151.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.68 Daily control level: 1168.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/13072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 54.01 Target 2: 50.31 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.07.2015 The Greek Prime Minister must be in a lonely place this morning. After caving into the demands of the countries creditors, Alexis Tsipras now has to sell the plan to the Greek Parliament. The package of additional aid will only add to the Greek debt pile. This additional debt does have a very high price as the Greek Government has to implement a reform and austerity package that will hit the ordinary working Greek citizen very hard. The reforms to be fair are needed and overdue. For some five years, successive Greek Governments had failed to pass legislation. This legislation was linked to the two prior agreed bailouts. The failure to have these reforms implemented has wasted 5 precious years. This was due to nothing more than the cowardice of the previous Greek administrations who did not have the fortitude to finish the job. Now, it is left to Alexis Tsipras, the once poster boy of the radical left of Greek politics to push through Parliament 5 years of reforms in two days of business. I am all for reform, Greece is in need of a radical upgrade. However, the manner by which these reforms were imposed on a country does leave a bitter taste in one’s mouth. The German Government flanked by the Dutch, Fins, Slovaks and Lithuanians took a very harsh and somewhat aggressive stance. Any idea of European solidarity was ignored as the North European Nations put the pressure on the Greek leadership. With the likes of the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico saying that he would show Greece “No mercy” one has to question if this European project is one that is worth fighting for. It would appear the United Kingdom made the correct choice by electing to choose sovereignty over the financial straight jacket that the European single currency imposes. Greece made a mistake by choosing to join what is currently a failed Euro project. The Greek political leadership early in the last decade decided to fudge their way into the single currency. Although there were instant rewards of rapid growth, the catalyst of the new found prosperity was built on debt. When the debt became unsustainable the Greek economy collapsed with tragic consequences. This leads us to the events of the coming week. Alexis Tsipras now has to force through the Greek Parliament legislation that a few days ago he would have never contemplated. That the Greek Prime Minister has totally ignored the will of the Greek people who voted in a referendum against further austerity is unjust and a travesty of democracy. Through its actions, the Greek Government crippled the banking system. With the banks no longer functioning the economy is left in limbo. The cost an economy closing down for the best part of 3 weeks is astronomical. To take the risk and challenge the countries creditors but them to meekly capitulate once the pressure came puts a big question mark over the current Greek Prime Minister. Is Alexis Tsipras the safe pair of hands Greece needs? Or is he at best inexperienced or at worst a gambler? Once the Parliament has the final say on the bill and the bailout is approved by all the national governments of the Eurozone, the question is who in Greece should ensure that the agreed plan is implemented. Do the creditors and the Greek public give Alexis Tsipras a second chance or does Greece need new leadership? I think the idea of an experienced hand taking charge and becoming the Greek Prime Minister would be a mistake. Greece needs to look forward and not backward. The Greek Government will also be constrained by what it can and cannot do as it has to function under very strict oversight. Therefore, the idea of causing fresh political upheaval by calling for elections would be a mistake. It would be far better that Alexis Tsipras seeks out members of the opposition who he could work with and form a national unity Government. Is there any realistic alternative? EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1133 Target 2: 1.0867 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133 Daily control level: 1.1200 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1407215GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5593 Target 2: 1.5377 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.5350 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.50 Target 2: 122.38 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06 Daily control level: 122.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDCHFH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9637 Target 2: 0.9425 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 0.9320 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2765 Target 2: 1.2551 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7495 Target 2: 0.7315 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7400 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1169.03 Target 2: 1145.97 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.53 Daily control level: 1168.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/14072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 53.82 Target 2: 50.16 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.07.2015 The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has overnight found an unlikely friendly voice in the form of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has voiced concern over the levels of the Greek Public debt and said the outstanding obligations had become “highly unsustainable”. According to the IMF the level of Greek public debt would over the next two years reach an astronomical figure of some 200% of GDP. The IMF went on further to say that the optimistic projections of achieving a budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP was not achievable. The European Union has given the Greek Government a stark choice. Either pass draconian legislation or be forced to leave the Eurozone. Although reforms are needed, the IMF claims that without any form of debt forgiveness it would be impossible for the Greek economy to grow sufficiently so as to drag the country out of what has become an economic downturn that can only be described as a tragic depression. The German Government has insisted that the IMF oversee the implementation of these reforms. What is farcical is that the European Union’s enforcer has come out so vehemently against a plan which it says will do more harm than good. The reforms need to happen as only through radical change can the Greek economy transform itself from the sick man of Europe into a thriving tiger of the Balkans. What the European’s have proposed, however, is not a vision for future Greek growth but for financial slavery is. The German Government all too well knows the consequences of the imposition of harsh economic and vindictive penalties on a country. The German nation suffered horribly after the First World War due to the harsh terms of surrender imposed by the victorious allies. This wrong was only put right after a Second World War when the allies this time forgave the German debt. Greece is located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe and the focal point of the Balkans. Does the German Government really believe that the imposition of such draconian measures on Greek people will add to political stability at a time when there are fires burning in North Africa, Middle East and the Ukraine? Greece will eventually recover. The Greek people are a resilient bunch. Under the right conditions, their entrepreneurial spirit helps them excel in business. Greek immigrant populations in the United Kingdom, Germany, USA and Australia have created businesses and wealth. It can only be hoped that if the right conditions exist, the Greek nation will drag themselves out of this abyss into an era of new prosperity. The road back however will be long and painful. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1143 Target 2: 1.0873 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135 Daily control level: 1.1080 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5751 Target 2: 1.5519 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116 Daily control level: 1.5450 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.46 Target 2: 122.34 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9554 Target 2: 0.9340 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2824 Target 2: 1.2628 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7543 Target 2: 0.7359 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 0.7400 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1166.36 Target 2: 1143.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.43 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/15072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 55.29 Target 2: 51.49 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.07.2015 Greek members of Parliament talked late into the night in what turned out at times to be a strongly contested debate over the country’s much-maligned debt deal. Although the vote to pass the legislation was never in doubt the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had concerns that the fallout of his humiliating climb down would fracture and fragment the ruling SYRIZA party. As expected the rupture within SYRIZA was large with many SYRIZA MP’s from the far left platform of the Party voting against the Governments legislation. The most outspoken of the critics are Zoi Konstantopoulou who is the Speaker of the Greek Parliament and the former Finance Minister, Yianis Varoufakis. They were joined by other leading SYRIZA members who showed their contempt for the legislation by voting against it. With SYRIZA now seemingly split between the moderates and radical left factions, Alexis Tsipras will now have to battle to hold is political party together. What remains of SYRIZA must be fearful of the political future of their party. Tsipras was always the dominating force of the party. Therefore, if the Greek Prime Minister decides that he cannot go on in office and implement legislation that he clearly dislikes there is a strong possibility that the raptures in SYRIZA will force upon it a terminal decline. The agreement that was reached in Brussels has been given a frosty reception both in Greece and by the International Monetary Fund. It is now becoming the acceptable view that some sort of debt adjustment must be made that will give the Greek economy space and time to breath and grow. However, the German Government and their friends within the European Union have so far blocked such a move. This stance now means that Alexis Tsipras must take ownership of the legislation and implement it in its entirety in the face of stiff internal opposition. For Alexis Tsipras to be successful in his goal he will need to build bridges within the Greek Parliament with his foes in the New Democracy and PASOK political parties. With a national unity Government in place the implementation of the much-needed reforms will be smoother as the administration will be able to marginalize the more extreme elements of the politics that can be found to the left and right of the political spectrum. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1607215EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1083 Target 2: 1.0807 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5752 Target 2: 1.5516 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.5575 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.81 Target 2: 122.71 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.05 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9625 Target 2: 0.9407 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1607215USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3040 Target 2: 1.2844 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7471 Target 2: 0.7283 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1159.09 Target 2: 1135.57 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/16072015CLQ5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 55.29 Target 2: 51.49 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.07.2015 Today the German Bundestag will vote to approve the latest Greek bailout deal. The probability that the endorsement of 86 billion euro package will go through. However it is becoming harder to persuade German taxpayers that Greece is the country which is worth helping. There is a growing opposition even in the Angela Merkel’s own party, which she will need to persuade for the bailout approval. With the European project under threat, Greece exiting the Union could cause a further domino effect. After the Greek Parliament approved the new bailout terms on Thursday. Finland’s parliament followed the suit yesterday. Several other countries are expected to raise their voice on the subject within the next few days. Greece is in urge to receive financial aid as due date for the 4.2 billion euro repayment to the European Central Bank is coming on Monday. In addition, the installment in arrears to IMF amounting to about 2 billion euro have to be repaid as soon as possible. In the meantime, the European Central Bank has decided to raise interim emergency lending to the Greek Banks in order to keep them afloat. The doubts however remain whether the cash-strapped country will be able to fulfill its obligations under the new agreement. International Monetary fund has also expressed its doubts regarding the subject, saying that unless significant haircuts on the Greek debt will occur, it will be impossible for the country to recover. The Greek Finance Minister himself has constantly noted that he does not believe in the new bailout deal and signed it because there were no other options. He has consequently lost support within his SYRIZA party as well as of many Greek citizens, who felt betrayed by the minister not fulfilling his election promises and accepting further austerity measures, which some believe will suffocate the fragile Greek economy. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.0995 Target 2: 1.0753 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0121 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5722 Target 2: 1.5488 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.5575 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.10 Target 2: 123.18 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9641 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9676 Target 2: 0.9476 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.2956 Target 2: 1.0105 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7492 Target 2: 0.7314 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1156.55 Target 2: 1134.32 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.115 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 58.97 Target 2: 55.11 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.9314 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.07.2015 Gold has tumbled over 4% in the early hours of this week opening. The precious metal was trading below 1100.00 price for the first time during the past 5 years, reaching the low of 1086.00 per ounce. The price slump was caused by the speculative selling in the Shanghai Stock exchange, therefore was not triggered by a simple price discovery. It is believed that a major hedge fund selling its holdings in the early Asian session. “It was down to speculation here, someone taking advantage of the low liquidity environment,” Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ, told CNBC. “Around 5 tonnes of gold was sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange within the space of two minutes between 09:29 and 09:30. The daily volume last week was about 25 tonnes,” he observed. “It clearly wasn’t driven by fundamentals, because the U.S. dollar didn’t move at that time”. Chinese Central Bank, one of the biggest gold buyers globally, has reported on Friday that its gold reserves were more than half of expected level. The Financial Times reported, the Central Bank’s Gold reserves were 1,658 tonnes (53.31 million fine troy ounces) as of the end of June, comparing to 1,054 tonnes reserves in April 2009. Positive US economic data and the Federal Reserve continues affirmation that the US interest rate will be increased by the end of this year had added to the Gold price weakness, significantly influencing the reduction of the demand for the precious metal. Analysts expect the price to continue to decline in the near future. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.0949 Target 2: 1.0713 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5717 Target 2: 1.5481 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.5575 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007USDJPYH4.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.94 Target 2: 123.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9239 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9704 Target 2: 0.9512 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/1707USDCADH41.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3072 Target 2: 1.2870 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007AUDUSDH4.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7473 Target 2: 0.7289 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1147.80 Target 2: 1118.74 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.53 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2007BRENTH4.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 59.00 Target 2: 55.28 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.07.2015 Yesterday Greece’s sovereign credit rating was lifted by two notches as the agreement with creditors was reached and overdue debt to International Monetary Fund was settled. Standard & Poor’s rating agency has raised the Greece’s rating from CCC- to CCC+. The agency also revised country’s outlook from negative to stable. The rating however still leaves the country in the junk status with the only optimism that it goes in the right direction. The emergency bridging loan of 7 billion euro Greece has received last week with subsequent settling of its debt obligations was one of the reasons for the rating increase. In addition, a promise of the new three-year bailout deal has convinced the S&P that “its default on its stock of commercial debt is no longer inevitable” within the next 12 months. According to the agency the possibility of the Greece exiting Eurozone has now fallen to below 50%, with the risks high still. On Monday the Greek banks have begun operations after being closed for three weeks. The same day the country met 4.2 billion Euro deadline to the European Central Bank as well as settled 2 billion euro to International Monetary Fund. The payment of 700 million euro interest was also settled with its creditors. In the return for the bailout aid, Greece has agreed to implement further austerity measures among which are tax increases and spending reduction. In addition, a massive sale of the state assets to the private investors should be put into effect. The new 86 billion euro agreement is still awaiting the approval by some of the European Members parliaments. It is expected that negotiations for the new program will be concluded within a month. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.0937 Target 2: 1.0711 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207GBPUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5671 Target 2: 1.5445 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113 Daily control level: 1.5575 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.04 Target 2: 123.26 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8939 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9734 Target 2: 0.9556 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3069 Target 2: 1.2875 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7457 Target 2: 0.7281 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207GOLDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1113.36 Target 2: 1083.74 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.81 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2207BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 58.40 Target 2: 54.76 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.07.2015 This morning at 9:30 am London time, the U.K. Office for National Statistics will release the monthly Retail Sales figures. This month the data is expected to rise further to 0.4%, comparing to 0.2% of the previous release. The retail sales advance is supported by the growth of the nation’s discretionary spending ability and also encouraged by the decline in the inflation levels. In addition, the earnings growth is picking up the pace which positively influences the consumer sentiment. It is currently at the highest levels since the economic crisis of 2009. Should the release confirm or exceed the expectations that would likely give a further boost to the boost to the strengthening British Pound. The current luck of stability in currencies and unpredictability of the stock market, could cause the investments to consider switching to the British Pound shortly, as it provides relative stability. The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. In order to have representative figures, the survey takes different business entities as a sample. This data is released approximately twenty days after a month ends and plays a substantial role as an indicator of the economic activity within the United Kingdom. The consumer spending constitutes for the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause high market volatility of the GBP pairs. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1047 Target 2: 1.0807 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5724 Target 2: 1.5496 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114 Daily control level: 1.5575 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 123.83 Target 2: 123.05 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8887 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9687 Target 2: 0.9505 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307USDCADH4.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3125 Target 2: 1.2925 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7461 Target 2: 0.7289 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1109.65 Target 2: 1079.27 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.186 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2307BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 57.88 Target 2: 54.44 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7200 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.07.2015 A preliminary estimate of China’s manufacturing activity has declined to 15-month low, which shows the world second biggest economy is undergoing a slowdown. The Chinese Purchasing Managers index has slid to 48.2, comparing to the final reading of 49.4 in June. The PMI uses 100-point scale, with the numbers below 50 indicating the industry contraction. For China have been a case since December 2014, with only minor exception in February 2015, when the index has reached 50.1. The rest of the China’s indexes, such as new orders, output and employment have all continued to shrink. Concerns over the slowed economic growth in China have prompted policymakers to action. Despite of the several attempts by the People’s Bank of China of the interest rates cuts, with the latest at the end of last month, the situation has not improved much still. “We think that recent policy easing has yet to fully feed through into stronger economic activity and expect policymakers to respond to signs of weakness by stepping up support in order to prevent growth from slipping much further this year,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said. Australia, as a result, has seen an immediate decline of its currency, with the Aussie hitting 0.7266 low against the US Dollar this morning, the lowest since 2009. China is Australia largest export market for the commodities. The general demand for the commodities especially such as oil, metals continues to decline sharply. Bloomberg commodity index was trading at all times low, reaching 94.07 mark yesterday, comparing to just below 140.00 one year ago. Gold price plunged lower once again, breaching the multi-year resistance line of 1080.00. Brent Oil at the same time has broken 55.50 resistance level. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407EURUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1102 Target 2: 1.0866 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.1215 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5632 Target 2: 1.5392 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.76 Target 2: 123.07 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8415 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9678 Target 2: 0.9494 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3135 Target 2: 1.2935 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7442 Target 2: 0.7262 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1106.42 Target 2: 1074.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.210 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2407BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 57.08 Target 2: 53.98 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5543 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.07.2015 This Tuesday Greek government will begin the negotiations on the new 86 billion euro bailout agreement, which was previously approved with the two parliamentary votes with the latest last week. Even though the short term agreement between Greece and its international creditors was settled ten days ago, Greek stock exchange remains closed for the 5th week. The official Troika representative groups have arrived in Athens to conclude the bailout talks. The heads of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are expected to arrive a few days later. The most belligerent issue for now is whether the Greece will need to carry out additional reform measures to receive the funds under the new bailout programme. The Athens are resisting strongly to that. The negotiations deadline is set to be August 20, when Greece will need to pay another 3.2 billion euro on ECB held bonds. Last week the banks were reopened, however would only provide limited service with the capital controls still there. Greek account holders are limited in their cash withdrawal to 420 Euro per week, which according to officials could last “for month”. Greek government request to lift the limits on trading were rejected by the European Central Bank last Friday. The measures were implemented to avoid a likely bank runs, which could cause illiquidity and consequent economic collapse to the very fragile economy of the Balkan member. The large deposit outflow was seen in the country’s banks just before capital controls were introduced. It is expected that the only completion of the new bailout aid agreement will restore the confidence in the Greek banking system. Large number of the businesses as a result have suffered significant sales declines, as they were unable to pay their suppliers. In addition, the recently increased VAT and reduction in pensions payments will lessen the population’s spending power even further. Troika is seen negatively by the general Greek population, as it is believed its harsh austerity measures caused the economy to decline sharply and unemployment to soar to the record-high levels. In the recently published report by the IMF, it warned that “Although market reaction to the recent reform package passed in Greece has been broadly positive, further episodes of significant uncertainty and volatility arising from the situation cannot be ruled out.” EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1098 Target 2: 1.0864 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.1215 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5622 Target 2: 1.5402 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.56 Target 2: 122.88 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8375 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9705 Target 2: 0.9519 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3135 Target 2: 1.2939 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707AUDUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7353 Target 2: 0.7183 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1115.23 Target 2: 1083.08 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2707BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 56.28 Target 2: 53.38 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.07.2015 The Chinese market continues to plummet, with the collapse is now compared to the US stock market crash in 1929. In the yesterday’s selloff the benchmark for the mainland stocks index sunk to 3.725,56 which is 8.5%, with many equities down to more than 10%. It is estimated that the total decline since June amounts to 38%. The plunge came quite unexpected as the government rescue programme had helped the index 16% up since July 16. The Government of the China has made numerous efforts to support the markets, which up to now however brought little result. Among the measures were the ban of the major shareholders from selling their stock and IPOs suspension. Additional interventions to sustain the market were also convened however, were not very effective on the background of the generally slowing down the Chinese economy. Yesterday China Security Regulatory Commission issued the statement, where it was remarked that the support for the equities will be prolonged and the government will “continue efforts to stabilize market and investor sentiment.” Despite the continuous efforts by the Government to stabilize the markets investors “are concerned and lost,” as Bloomberg reports. The Chinese market transparency has always been a concern it continues. “In a market where unprecedented intervention has made government money one of the biggest drivers of share prices, authorities aren’t transparent enough for investors to make informed decisions.” Numerous markets and currencies were affected by the economic decline of the second world largest economy. China is the Australia’s largest exporting market, with now significantly reduced demand for the country’s raw materials caused the Australian Dollar to decline to six years low, reaching 0.7256 mark yesterday. Canadian Dollar was in no better condition, continuing to lose its value dramatically with the price of USDCAD surpassing 1.3100 level on Friday. Russian Rouble was not put aside by the market trend when USDRUB reached the four-month high to almost 60.00 mark yesterday. The situation is putting downward pressure on the commodities, causing the Oil and Gold prices weaken further. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1203 Target 2: 1.0973 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115 Daily control level: 1.1215 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5664 Target 2: 1.5452 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 123.98 Target 2: 122.49 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.740 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9703 Target 2: 0.9525 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097 Daily control level: 0.9400 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3135 Target 2: 1.2939 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2675 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7355 Target 2: 0.7183 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7490 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1110.49 Target 2: 1079.03 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.73 Daily control level: 1160.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2807BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.55 Target 2: 45.45 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55 Daily control level: 51.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.07.2015 This evening the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement. This announcement comes against the backdrop off falling oil, commodity prices and the collapse in the price of Chinese equities. The widening of the Greek financial crisis for now has it seems been averted but there are still concerns that the rebels within the ruling SYRIZA party may cause enough ripples which could slow down the implementation of the third Greek austerity program. The FOMC has had on its agenda for a long time the view that there needs to be a normalization of the interest rate environment. Therefore unless the current external financial instability becomes globally disruptive the FOMC will most likely stick to its present course of hiking rates gradually. The question is when the FOMC will raise rates? Will it be September or December? A couple of weeks back the likelihood was that the Fed would pass on the opportunity to raise interest rates in September and look to launch its interest rate nominalization program in December. In recent weeks however we have seen an improvement in US economic data and a stabilization in the job numbers. Therefore, it now looks like we see lift off in September. We may get some indication today from the Federal Reserve that this is their plan however with a lack of market news and the holiday season well and truly underway I would expect quiet days trading before we finally see a pick of activity this evening. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1171 Target 2: 1.0947 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112 Daily control level: 1.1020 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5721 Target 2: 1.5505 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.5520 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 124.26 Target 2: 122.84 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71 Daily control level: 123.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9710 Target 2: 0.9532 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.9600 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3022 Target 2: 1.2820 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.3050 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7414 Target 2: 0.7249 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7250 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1110.12 Target 2: 1079.52 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.30 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/29072015CLU5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 49.33 Target 2: 46.25 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54 Daily control level: 49.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.07.2015 The United States Federal Reserve has voted in favour of keeping interest rates at the current levels of close to zero. Although there was universal agreement among all the FOMC members, the improving state of the US economy was highlighted in the latest statement. The FOMC said, “Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months.” This would seem to indicate that the improving economic climate would point to an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Therefore, the bets are now on the Federal Reserve nominalizing the interest rate environment in September rather than December. The FOMC in its statement noted the improvement on the Job and Real Estate market. Furthermore, there was also the satisfaction that consumer spending has finally begun to increase. The inflation picture is still not at the target level, however, the Federal Reserve stated that a sustained move to the 2% objective will happen. The FOMC through its action of deliberate forward guidance has now prepared the market for a period of higher interest rates. The US Dollar off the back of last night’s statement has appreciated during the early morning trading. The British Pound, however, has traded in a tight range and has remained above the previous day’s lows. This is due to the expectation that the Bank of England soon will also begin to increase interest rates. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1090 Target 2: 1.0876 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5698 Target 2: 1.5496 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.5585 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.57 Target 2: 123.29 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64 Daily control level: 123.30 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9752 Target 2: 0.9586 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9600 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3045 Target 2: 1.2841 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.2860 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7375 Target 2: 0.7213 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7350 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1113.14 Target 2: 1080.38 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.38 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/30072015CLU5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 50.41 Target 2: 47.31 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55 Daily control level: 47.40 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.07.2015 The unprecedented market decline continues in China. The government interference of 27 July only had a brief success with the Shanghai Composite Index now declining to pre-intervention levels. At the moment China Securities Finance Corporation, which belongs to the state, is spending around 180 billion yuan a day to support the equities. However, as the investors started to figure out the timing of the government purchases, waiting that moment to unload their stocks. This is rendered this measure ineffective. The relatively quiet mornings in the Shanghai Stock exchange are usually followed by very volatile markets in the afternoon, which made analysts question the reasons of such a perplexing behaviour. Currently, a few factors were identified. The margin call from lenders is and market hitting stop losses often prompt the wave of new selling. In addition, the investors are usually opening position later in the day, after having the opportunity to observe the market behaviour in the morning and figuring out that the government purchasing is going on around that time. One more factor adds to the share market decline. The Shanghai Stock exchange is dominated by the individual investors, who mostly use technical analysis rather than fundamental factors when making their investment. The companies’ value, in this case, is diverted from the chart’s actions, rather than based on the calculations of the fair value of the company. This in turn could lead to illogical and “go with the flow” actions, leading to further sell-off. This also complicates the classical valuation techniques making the market more unpredictable and difficult to control. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1030 Target 2: 1.0832 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5710 Target 2: 1.5490 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5585 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.72 Target 2: 123.54 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.595 Daily control level: 123.30 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDCHFH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9769 Target 2: 0.9613 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9600 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3045 Target 2: 1.2841 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.2860 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107AUDUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7375 Target 2: 0.7213 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7350 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1104.24 Target 2: 1072.32 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.96 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/3107BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 55.24 Target 2: 52.40 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.418 Daily control level: 47.40 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.08.2015 Today Greece is reopening its stock markets, which were closed since the end of the June. This will be one more step towards normalizing the struggling country’s economy. Immediate heavy losses are expected, with some analysts projecting the draw-down to reach as much as 20 percent. The resumption of trading begins as the deal for the bailout extension was made between Greek government and its international creditors, comprised of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. The bridge loan of 7 billion euro was arranged for the cash-strapped country in order to repay the delayed instalment to the IMF as well as the Greek bonds held by the ECB. The deal will promote the further measures to ensure the country’s debt is sustainable. These will be stringent reforms in the pensions system and taxes, as well as other budget’s austerity measures. The operation of the Greek stock exchange was suspended since June 29, together with the imposition on the capital controls, to prevent the heavy outflow of the funds from the country, threatening the Greece banking system’s collapse. The stocks are expected to be down between 19 and 22 percent, which is partly estimated based on the Greek assets traded in the United States. In addition, the traders concern about the negotiations on the new bailout could add a further pressure on the stocks of the struggling EU member. The fears that the negotiations might fail and the Greece economy will be once more left with the shortage of cash does not add any optimism to the short-term outlook for the trading of the Greek shares. We should keep in mind that banking sector comprises about 20% of the Athens stock exchange, making therefore making the index highly vulnerable to any negative events regarding the future bailout agreement. Furthermore, the recent bank closure and restrictions on the cash withdrawals and money transfers, have been a weighty toll on the operations of the Greek companies, many of which saw the sales decline to more than a quarter. The overall economic prospects of Greece are neither on the bright side. It is projected that the country’s economy will decline between 2 to 4 percent this year, which could cause the country to slide deeper into recession. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1075 Target 2: 1.0867 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5728 Target 2: 1.5536 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.47 Target 2: 123.29 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5913 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9747 Target 2: 0.9561 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: UpA Target 1: 1.3193 Target 2: 1.2983 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7403 Target 2: 0.7233 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1112.68 Target 2: 1078.68 Projected range in ATR’s: 17.00 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0308BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 53.56 Target 2: 50.80 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.383 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.08.2015 Standard & Poor’s rating agency revised the European Union’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”. The outlook downgrade affects all the current 28 European members, 9 of which do not participate in the Eurozone, therefore using their own currency. The reason for the downgrade, among other issues is that “the EU will provide first-loss guarantee support for financing connected to the Juncker Plan”, as the agency cited. The Investment plan, announced last November by the European commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was created to encourage investments in Europe. It was approved by the European Parliament in June. The Juncker stimulus plan is expected to roll out 315 billion euros over three years. The challenge with the plan is its assumption for the EU to “provide first-loss guarantee support”, therefore will provide financed backup. The second reason is that the plan brings a significant economic pressure on the three largest EU budgetary contributors – Germany, United Kingdom and France. Furthermore, “the EU’s repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU member states (most recently including Greece), without the member states’ paying in capital,” was brought up in the press release. “The negative outlook on the EU also reflects its lack of any paid-in capital, a key difference compared with other multilateral institutions. The EU continues to run a very large negative net asset position, largely reflecting its considerable pension obligations” – the statement continues. The recently financed part of the Greek bailout, in addition to previous funding of the weaker members such as Spain, Portugal and Cyprus have taken a toll on the EU budget. However, there is not much capital coming in from the 28 member states union. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1050 Target 2: 1.0848 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5679 Target 2: 1.5489 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.59 Target 2: 123.45 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5719 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9762 Target 2: 0.9614 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3249 Target 2: 1.3059 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7367 Target 2: 0.7199 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1101.01 Target 2: 1066.57 Projected range in ATR’s: 17.22 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0408BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 51.58 Target 2: 48.76 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.414 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.08.2015 The probability that the Greece’s economy will be harmed further by the new austerity measures imposed by the creditors is real. The analysts believe that unless the debt afflicted country will receive a substantial loan relief, it will suffer permanent depression along with further deterioration of its economic health. For example it is projected that only the increase in VAT, which was one of the measures to be accepted by the Greek government in order to receive the bailout funds, will cause the GDP decrease of more than one percent next year. This will be due to even weaker consumer spending and continuous shrinking of the economy. In 2016, the country’s Gross domestic product is calculated to be 30% lower, than at the beginning of the crisis in 2010 and 7% so comparing to the time when Greece has joined the Eurozone in 2001. Currently, the Greek stock market continues to decline. On Monday, when the stock exchanges opened after being closed since the end of June many stocks suffered trading suspension due to the limit down of 30% decline. The heaviest losers were the banking sector stocks, the decline of which continued on Tuesday with the results much the same. The Greek Banks are the industry, which was particularly hard hit due to the heavy economic decline. More than 50 percent of the country’s loans are non-performing. The deposit flight was continuing at an unprecedented level during the past six months, and only ceased as the capital controls were enforced in June. This has caused huge liquidity problems and an urgent need for the recapitalisation. The above was one of the factors, which pushed the Greek government to accept the new bailout agreement measures in order to receive 86 billion euro aid, 25 billion of which is allocated to go to the country’s banking sector. At the moment, the negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the European Central Bank are underway and expected to be concluded in the next two weeks. As the new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos reported yesterday, the talks on the privatisation of the state assets, the main creditors’ demand is going smoothly, with the possibility of the final agreement to be reached even earlier. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.0981 Target 2: 1.0779 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5657 Target 2: 1.5465 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.94 Target 2: 123.80 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5748 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9858 Target 2: 0.9704 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3285 Target 2: 1.3095 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7367 Target 2: 0.7199 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1104.80 Target 2: 1070.42 Projected range in ATR’s: 17.19 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0508BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 52.02 Target 2: 49.21 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.405 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.08.2015 Today is the big and long expected day for the British pound, called by many media the “Super Thursday” At noon London time the Bank of England will release its August interest rate decision together with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and new economic forecast. This will be a new communication format, as all the elements are released at the same time. At 12:45 pm London time Mark Carney, BOE governor will hold a press conference. Even though the interest rate is not expected to be increased this time, remaining at 0.5% which is in place since 2009, the policy tone is to be shifted. This will significantly intensify the high impact event. The Governor Mark Carney has mentioned earlier that the rotation of the year will be the right time to start raising rates. Hence, the most likely we will see the rise in February 2016, which will be marked as a turning point. It is important to follow the major points of the today’s event. Firstly the MPC voting is projected to change this time from the unanimous decision to hold the interest rates, voted for the last 7 months. This time the economists seeing at least two out of nine members to vote in favour of the increase. Secondly, inflation forecasts will play a role of the future key guide. Changes regarding the medium-term outlook relative to the 2% target will be the main signal to reveal whether tighter or looser monetary policy will be required. Wage growth rate will be an important component of today’s meeting. According to the latest statistics, the pay is rising at the fastest annual velocity during the last five years. That could be an alarm bell about the inflationary pressure in the labour market. On the other hand, some analytics count that’s the pace is not enough for the interest rate hike. The language of the MPC Minutes will require a close observation also. For example the July’s minutes had a new line, which was reading as follows: “For a number of members, the balance of risks to medium-term inflation relative to the 2 per cent target was becoming more skewed to the upside at the current level of bank rate.” One of the factors that could deter the enthusiasm about the rate increase could be the situation in Greece, which is still unresolved. GBPUSD remains to range within 1.5670 – 1.5530 corridor in the expectation of the event. High volatility on all British Pound pairs should be anticipated this afternoon. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1008 Target 2: 1.0802 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5695 Target 2: 1.5507 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.47 Target 2: 124.23 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6240 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9868 Target 2: 0.9708 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3274 Target 2: 1.3078 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7441 Target 2: 0.7269 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1101.47 Target 2: 1067.81 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.830 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0608BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 51.58 Target 2: 48.66 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4630 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.08.2015 Bank of England has displayed yesterday no urgency to raise interest rates, making it clear that the earliest increase could be expected not earlier than in 2016. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 1-0-8 in favour of holding the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%. This move surprised the investors as it was lower than the projections, according to which at least two members were expected to vote in favour of the hike. The Britain’s economic recovery continues with the wages increasing faster in the recent months and the overall job market improving. Nevertheless, the inflation level is still significantly lower than the target 2% and is at the moment one of the major obstacles to proceed with the tightening measures. “We are clearly closer to the time at which rates may have to go up, but that does not mean we’re fixing some particular point in the future”, Ben Broadbent, Bank of England Deputy Governor said in his interview yesterday. “As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now,” he continued. Yesterday, the Bank of England broke with the tradition and combined the set of the MPC’s rates decision, the minutes of the meeting, and its quarterly inflation report, alongside Bank governor Mark Carney’s regular press conference together. The inflation report has downgraded the near-term inflation forecast after the drop in the prices of oil has resumed. The Bank now expects inflation to remain around zero for the next two months, with the rise to the targeted 2% expected gradually to be reached in two- year time. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1024 Target 2: 1.0820 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5612 Target 2: 1.5412 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDJPYH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.36 Target 2: 124.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.627 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9885 Target 2: 0.9727 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3107 Target 2: 1.3008 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7426 Target 2: 0.7258 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1101.47 Target 2: 1067.81 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.530 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/0708BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 51.56 Target 2: 48.66 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.449 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.08.2015 It is hoped that the final deal between Greece and its international creditors will be concluded by tomorrow, as the negotiations on the final bailout programme are currently underway. Greek finance and economy ministers are being in the final steps of negotiations with the creditors’ delegates currently. It was previously said that the final agreement is expected to be reached by August 18, with the final date now moved closer. “Efforts are being made to conclude the negotiations. The horizon is by Monday night or early Tuesday,” – a Greek official in the interview to Reuters news agency was quoted. “When the new bailout comes to parliament for a vote it will be one bill with two articles – one article will be the loan agreement, the Memorandum of understanding and the second article will be the prior actions,” he continued. At the moment, for institutions are negotiating the 86 billion euro deal with Greece – The International Monetary Fund, the European Central bank, European Commission and the European Stability Mechanism and there is a confidence that the agreement will be reached shortly. The indebted country needs additional liquidity in order to support its banking system and make payments on its obligations. There are still some questions remained to agree though. The final amount of the third bailout program, the Greece’s third in the last five years should be evaluated. There are also some discrepancies regarding the country’s reforms, which need to be worked out so the fresh funds could be released. The impending amount of 3.2 billion euro is due to the European Central Bank on August 20, therefore the solution needs to be found shortly. The situation, nevertheless, is not pressing for an immediate solution as previously it was previously the case. The reason is that there are still additional 5 billion euros available for the Greece to borrow from a European fund. Greek stock exchange has declined for more than 15% during the last week of reopening, after being shut since June 29. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1062 Target 2: 1.0864 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5592 Target 2: 1.5384 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDJPYH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 124.80 Target 2: 123.48 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.660 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9896 Target 2: 0.9734 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3222 Target 2: 1.3012 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7494 Target 2: 0.7328 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1109.13 Target 2: 1079.75 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.69 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1008BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 50.38 Target 2: 47.42 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4764 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.08.2015 After the through the night negotiations the final deal on the Greece’s bailout assistance was concluded. The agreement will keep the country in the Eurozone and avoid its bankruptcy. “An agreement has been reached. Some minor details are being discussed right now,” a Greek government official stated in an interview to reporters, after 18 hours consuming negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the ECB, International Monetary Fund, the European commission and the European Stability mechanism rescue fund. The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, and there is a possibility that the final amount of the financial assistance could exceed the initially indicated 86 billion euro. The primary budget deficit target was agreed at 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product this year, and 0.5 percent of the primary surplus for 2016, 1.75 percent for 2017 and 3.5 percent surplus in 2018. Furthermore, additional issues on conducting privatizations and handling non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector were also agreed on. Greece needs a quick release of the funds in order to settle a 3.2 billion euro of the bond repayment due to the European Central bank on August 20, which will now proceed smoothly. Besides, Athens hopes to receive 20 billion euro urgently, which is needed to support the country’s weakened banking system. Another 12 billion euro of the total amount will be allocated for the debt repayments with 5.3 billion euro in payments will be going to the state suppliers. Following the agreement, Greek parliament will have to approve the measures required by the international creditors, which should be made before the meeting of the euro-area finance ministers this Friday. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1122 Target 2: 1.0914 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5699 Target 2: 1.5481 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.29 Target 2: 123.93 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.677 Daily control level: 124.45 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9918 Target 2: 0.9752 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3113 Target 2: 1.2885 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.7500 Target 2: 0.7322 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7260 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1109.50 Target 2: 1088.84 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.33 Daily control level: 1105.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1108BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 52.38 Target 2: 49.26 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5600 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.08.2015 Chinese Yuan continued to depreciate, extending yesterday’s losses after the People’ Bank of China weakened the currency for the second day in the row. The Yuan price declined against the 6.1162 on Monday to a four-year low of 6.4392 in Shanghai. The PBOC presented this change as an attempt for a free market reform, where the market forces will have more influence on determining the currency value. The Chinese currency devaluation was a made after the set of disappointing economic data was published and as some analysts believe, could serve as a beginning to the longer-term slide in the exchange rate. The rapid drop to around 4 percent in Chinese currency affected the markets *********, as investors fearing the further economic slump and are looking to switch their funds to safe-haven government debt. Meanwhile, the demand for the riskier assets is diminishing, with the equities, currencies and commodities experiencing a downward pressure. It is feared that the Chinese government action will lead to the currency wars deepening when other countries’ Central Banks could potentially follow suit and weaken their currencies. Asian stocks and emerging market currencies have tumbled this morning while MSCI’s Asia-pacific index fell to two-year low. The currencies of the economies associated especially close to the Chinese economy suffered hardest blow. The Australian Dollar has reached a new low against the US Dollar of 0.7214 this morning, being the pair’s six-year low. Brent Oil continued to tumble as it was trading below 49.50 support at the European session opening. S&P 500 index, based on the market capitalization of 500 large US companies has been declining for the second day in the row, bouncing off the 2100.00 level yesterday and now trading around 2063.00 mark. US Dollar index continued on the way down as well, after forming a double top pattern on the daily chart last week. It has now slid below 96.80 level. The Common European currency, however, has strengthened for the third consecutive day, after the final deal between Greece and its International creditors was arranged yesterday in the morning. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1148 Target 2: 1.0934 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.1125 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5671 Target 2: 1.5469 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDJPYH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 125.83 Target 2: 124.39 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7188 Daily control level: 123.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9966 Target 2: 0.9792 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3230 Target 2: 1.2996 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7393 Target 2: 0.7207 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: UP Target 1: 1124.58 Target 2: 1092.46 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.064 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1208BRENTH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 51.57 Target 2: 48.21 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.678 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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