Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC

alayoua · July 12, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 12 2013

ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further

The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” There was also some clarification of its time horizon: “The extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Council’s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."

Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that “the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.”

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment

2013-07-12 17:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Bullard speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-12 04:44 GMT | GBP/USD eases below 1.5200

2013-07-12 03:27 GMT | Gold below $1290, Oil above $104

2013-07-12 02:41 GMT | AUD/USD defending 0.9130 support

2013-07-12 01:42 GMT | USD/JPY breaks through stops at 99.10

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 26:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208

Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 26:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278

Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088

-------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 26:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98

Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 15, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 15 2013

Fitch downgrades France to AA+ from AAA

Fitch Ratings has downgraded France to AA+ from AAA on Friday, keeping a stable outlook on the country's debt. Fitch, which joins S&P and Moody's in removing the country's AAA rating, cited the high level of the French government indebtedness as one of the main reasons of the downgrade. Fitch expects France's general government debt to peak at 96% of GDP in 2014 and decline only gradually over the long term, remaining at 92% in 2017. "The only 'AAA' country with a higher debt ratio is the U.S. (AAA/negative), which has exceptional financing flexibility and debt tolerance afforded by the preeminent global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," Fitch said in a statement.

Standard & Poor's has affirmed on Friday Germany's top triple-A sovereign credit rating, with a stable outlook. The rating agency justified its decision saying that “Germany has a highly diversified and competitive economy with a demonstrated ability to absorb large economic and financial shocks.” As far as the outlook on the long-term rating is concerned, S&P's decision to keep it 'stable' reflects their view that: “Germany's public finances and strong external balance sheet will continue to withstand potential financial and economic shocks.”

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Producer and Import Prices (YoY)

2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Tarullo speech

2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM)

2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-15 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD treading water above 1.5100

2013-07-15 03:49 GMT | AUD/USD exposed to 0.80/0.85 fall - RBS

2013-07-15 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.2930-80 key to technical outlook - BBH

2013-07-15 02:39 GMT | USD/JPY flat above 99.00 with Tokyo closed

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3079 LOW 1.30513 BID 1.30773 ASK 1.30773 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:00:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: With limited economic data flow today we expect further neutral tone development. However, price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3124 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3157 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.3044 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2974 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3124, 1.3157

Support Levels: 1.3044, 1.3008, 1.2974

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.51287 LOW 1.5098 BID 1.51257 ASK 1.51268 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:00:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5141 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5173(R2) and 1.5203 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.5088 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.5059 (S2) and 1.5028 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5173, 1.5203

Support Levels: 1.5088, 1.5059, 1.5028

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.383 LOW 99.074 BID 99.271 ASK 99.272 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:00:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 99.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 99.68 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 99.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 99.03 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.83 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.61 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.46, 99.68, 99.90

Support Levels: 99.03, 98.83, 98.61

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 16, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke – again!

Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asia’s focus.

The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECB’s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter

2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY

2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's

2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080

2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ

2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 21:26

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171

Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 21:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216

Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 21:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60

Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 18, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 18 2013

Fed's Bernanke: Asset purchases not 'on a preset course'

According to the prepared text of Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, to be delivered later today during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases is not 'on a preset course', as it depends on the current economic and financial situation. The Fed head assured that signs of recovery are visible in the US labor market, but that “the jobs situation is far from satisfactory, as the unemployment rate remains well above its longer-run normal level.” He also pointed out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. That is why “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.”

As far as QE is concerned, Bernanke stressed that the decision on when the tapering should begin depends on the Fed's assessment of the US economic outlook. Should economic data improve earlier than forecasted and inflation rise towards the objective, a reduction could be carried out sooner. Otherwise, “the current pace of purchases could be maintained for longer.” According to Rob Carnell from ING: ”This speech neither contradicts nor supports the notion that the taper begins in September. The taper might begin then. But as we have written elsewhere, there are quite good reasons why it may occur somewhat later. Not that it really matters all that much anyway – given that the Fed funds decision is one that will be taken independently from QE.”

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-18 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY)

2013-07-18 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims

2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech

2013-07-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. Foreign bond investment

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-18 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD breaks below 1.52 ahead of UK retail sales

2013-07-18 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY above 100 again ahead of Sunday's elections

2013-07-18 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD breaks 1.32, needs to clear 1.3180

2013-07-18 04:04 GMT | AUD/USD trips stop losses below 0.9170

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31271 LOW 1.3091 BID 1.30962 ASK 1.30968 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 24:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly timeframe. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3147 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3210 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3081 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3050 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3019 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3147, 1.3179, 1.3210

Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3050, 1.3019

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52232 LOW 1.51728 BID 1.51789 ASK 1.51799 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 24:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5223 (R1), keeping the ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5252 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5281 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.5152 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5124 (S2) and 1.5095 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5223, 1.5252, 1.5281

Support Levels: 1.5152, 1.5124, 1.5095

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.18 LOW 99.463 BID 100.085 ASK 100.088 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 08 : 24:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to 100.61 (R3) mark. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 99.84 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 99.64 (S2) and 99.44 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61

Support Levels: 99.84, 99.64, 99.44

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 19, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 19 2013

Bernanke: Too early to say when tapering will start

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Congress for a second day on Thursday. While the introductory statement remained unchanged, investors didn't get new insights from the Q&A session before the Senate Banking Committee. When asked about the time the Fed will scale back its monthly bond-buying programme, he said "it's way too early to make any judgment" as the Fed wants to see sustainable improvement in labor markets. Bernanke also said he has broad support for his policy outlook through the Fed leadership. "We've not changed policy. We are not talking about tightening monetary policy", Bernanke said. He added that none of what the Fed has communicated about winding down its bond purchases implies tighter policy in the foreseeable future. Among other remarks, Bernanke said he doesn't see risks to financial stability from student debt, though he said it could have negative economic consequences in the long-term. "It is not particularly likely to cause any sharp instability of the sort we saw in the last few years", Bernanke said Thursday.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19072013

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | All. G20 Meeting

2013-07-19 06:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-19 08:30 GMT | UK. Public Sector Net Borrowing

2013-07-19 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-19 04:48 GMT | GBP/USD surge capped below 1.5250

2013-07-19 04:08 GMT | EUR/USD knocking on the door of short-term break above 1.3205

2013-07-19 03:13 GMT | USD/JPY touches the 100 handle on Yen strength

2013-07-19 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD supported on broad USD weakness

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31503 LOW 1.30891 BID 1.31386 ASK 1.31391 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 26:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.3151 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3204 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3112 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3086 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3060 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3151, 1.3179, 1.3204

Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3086, 1.3060

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52504 LOW 1.51963 BID 1.52323 ASK 1.52327 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market strengthening is required to clear resistive barrier at 1.5252 (R1). Next visible resistances are seen at 1.5281 (R2) and 1.5311 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5194 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5162(S2) and 1.5130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5252, 1.5281, 1.5311

Support Levels: 1.5194, 1.5162, 1.5130

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.866 LOW 99.809 BID 100.063 ASK 100.068 CHANGE -0.36% TIME 08 : 26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of upwards action is seen above the next resistance level at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to let the price achieve our higher intraday targets at 100.41 (R2) and 100.61 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 99.80 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 99.62 (S2) and 99.43 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61

Support Levels: 99.80, 99.62, 99.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 22, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 22 2013

Portugal's president backs coalition government

Portugal president Aníbal Cavaco Silva on Sunday supported the current coalition government, saying they should stay till end of the term, ending weeks of political crisis in the country, which had led international actors to even threaten the country's €78 billion international bailout. "As the national salvation compromise was impossible to achieve, I consider that the best alternative solution is for the present government to remain in its functions, with reinforced guarantees of cohesion and solidity of the coalition, until the end of its term (in 2015)" Mr. Cavaco said. Further headlines were provided by Bloomberg, with Cavaco saying he "laments talks on ‘National salvation’ agreement failed to produce results", and that "agreement will eventually be imposed by reality in future."

Session in the Asia-Pacific to start the week opened with an early move higher in Yen that soon corrected to break even before Tokyo started trading, but then as soon as traders hit the floor the Yen rose again to as high as 99.57 of the USD/JPY pair. The Yen move became in broad USD weakness following Japan PM Abe's upper house win, taking EUR/USD to session highs at 1.3170, AUD/USD to 0.9228, and Cable to 1.5298. Nikkei index opened in the 14750 region but soon eased to break even shy of 14600. Gold and Silver broke higher above key $1300 resistance in case of Gold, while Oil remained above the $108 handle. Local share markets traded mixed with China mainland and Japan in the negative, while Australia and Korea still in the positive.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-22 07:00 GMT | Stitzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Jul)

2013-07-22 12:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)

2013-07-22 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change (Jun)

2013-07-22 15:30 GMT | USA. 6-Month Bill Auction

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-22 04:53 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.93 to mark a cap in the recovery - BBH

2013-07-22 04:47 GMT | GBP/USD capped below 1.53 ahead of London

2013-07-22 04:45 GMT | AUD/JPY to peak at 94.00 in September - NAB

2013-07-22 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD holding gains above 1.3150

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31694 LOW 1.31329 BID 1.31529 ASK 1.31534 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 19:28

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is positive for the EURUSD as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance at 1.3178 (R1) would clear the way for an upside penetration towards to next visible targets at 1.3201 (R2) and 1.3224 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3130 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.3105 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3081 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3178, 1.3201, 1.3224

Support Levels: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3081

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52971 LOW 1.52577 BID 1.52831 ASK 1.52842 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08 : 19:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Further uptrend development is limited now to the next resistive measure at 1.5311 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 1.5341 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.5372 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 1.5246 (S1) might lead to the correction formation on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5182 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5311, 1.5341, 1.5372

Support Levels: 1.5246, 1.5213, 1.5182

---------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.62 LOW 99.608 BID 100.041 ASK 100.044 CHANGE -0.6% TIME 08 : 19:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 100.18 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 100.36 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 100.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 99.80 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 99.63 (S2) en route to final aim at 99.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.18, 100.36, 100.55

Support Levels: 99.80, 99.63, 99.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 23, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 23 2013

Bank of Japan stands ready to inject further stimulus

The Bank of Japan is prepared to provide further easing to the economy should signs fail to emerge about an economic recovery, including an inflation mandate of 2% in the short-run. According to BoJ board member Takehiro Sato, more stimulus is a real possibility if the economy's recovery is threatened, naming a few risks such as slower-than-expected growth in China. "A high degree of uncertainty remains concerning the global economy, and I see risks to the economic outlook as somewhat tilted to the downside," Sato said.

"The BOJ does not exclude the implementation of additional measures and will not hesitate to fine-tune its policies flexibly when unexpected tail risks materialise," Sato added in a speech to business leaders in Fukushima, northeastern Japan. Sato also said the 2% inflation should be seen as a flexible target, subject to change in the 2-year projections, a timeframe which had been repeatedly mentioned by BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda in past meetings. "If the inflation rate is projected to stabilise within a certain range, with the median being 2 per cent price growth, the main objective of the bank's policy will have been fulfilled," Sato said. Mr Sato, an economist who joined the BOJ board last year, was nonetheless more optimistic about japan’s economy from a year earlier, saying a recovery was "coming into view", presenting a "window of opportunity" to overcome deflation.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-23 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals

2013-07-23 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales

2013-07-23 13:00 GMT | USA. Housing Price Index

2013-07-23 14:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Confidence

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-23 03:27 GMT | EUR/JPY back around 131.50 on Euro strength

2013-07-23 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD struggling above 0.9280 highs

2013-07-23 02:42 GMT | GBP/USD conquers 1.5304 resistance – now targeting key level at 1.5432

2013-07-23 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD faces risk for extension into 1.20/1.18 - JPMorgan

--------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32072 LOW 1.31827 BID 1.31970 ASK 1.31975 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 37:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Yesterday high at 1.3217 (R1) limits further uptrend establishment. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 1.3243 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Depreciation below the support level at 1.3177 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.3152 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.3126 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3217, 1.3243, 1.3268

Support Levels: 1.3177, 1.3152, 1.3126

-----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53767 LOW 1.53548 BID 1.53667 ASK 1.53673 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 37:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Fractal level at 1.5385 (R1) offers next resistive barrier. Penetration above that mark might trigger upside pressure and expose our next resistive mean at 1.5415 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5445 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Price devaluation below the support at 1.5345 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5315 (S2) en route to final target at 1.5285 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5385, 1.5415, 1.5445

Support Levels: 1.5345, 1.5315, 1.5285

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.68 LOW 99.143 BID 99.465 ASK 99.467 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 37:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains under the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend formation. Strengthening above the next resistive structure at 99.70 (R1) might activate medium-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 99.86 (R2) and 100.02 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside expansion might face next hurdle at 99.28 (S1). Break here is liable to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 99.13 (S2) and 98.98 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 99.70, 99.86, 100.02

Support Levels: 99.28, 99.13, 98.98

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 26 2013

What does Japan CPI rise mean for the BoJ?

In a clear sign of temporary victory by 'Abenomics' radical policies, Japan printed the sharpest rise in core inflation in almost 5 years, with the read out at +0.4% y/y vs 0.3% exp. The rest of indicators were also encouraging. ne of the top priorities by Japan is to end a 15-year deflation cycle, so that the country can start to develop a self-sustaining recovery. In large part, this is the main reason behind the radical ultra-loose monetary policy being currently deployed by the BoJ, which has committed to double the amount the central bank purchases in Japanese government debt. The country will continue to actively assess how these increases in price pressure - still minimal - are having an impact on the mindset of the population, potentially leading to support more credit, spending and rise in salaries. However, as IFR Markets Editor Amanda Tan notes, "a planned sales tax hike in April next year - from 5% to 8% - poses a downside risk to spending & sentiment, particularly if wages don't start to rise."

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-26 06:00 GMT | Germany. Import Price Index

2013-07-26 06:00 GMT | UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a

2013-07-26 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-26 04:58 GMT | EUR/GBP lurking below Fibonacci resistance at 0.8631 and 0.8646 ahead of data

2013-07-26 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD pares all loses post-UK GDP dump

2013-07-26 02:46 GMT | EUR/USD higher on the back of broad USD weakness

2013-07-26 02:43 GMT | USD/JPY breaking lower, lowest at 98.70

----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32889 LOW 1.32687 BID 1.32787 ASK 1.32790 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 36:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD commenced new step of uptrend formation. Possibility of further market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3296 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3316 (R2) and 1.3336 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.3257 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.3237 (S2) and 1.3217 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3296, 1.3316, 1.3336

Support Levels: 1.3257, 1.3237, 1.3217

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54058 LOW 1.53732 BID 1.53913 ASK 1.53920 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 36:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: While price is traded above the moving averages short-term bias would be considered as bullish. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.5419 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.5445 (R2) and 1.5470 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 1.5370 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 1.5343 (S2) and 1.5316 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5419, 1.5445, 1.5470

Support Levels: 1.5370, 1.5343, 1.5316

-------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.402 LOW 98.626 BID 98.766 ASK 98.771 CHANGE -0.52% TIME 08 : 36:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY gained momentum on the downside and likely will close on the negative territory today. However clearance of our next resistive structure at 98.94 (R1) would open way towards to our initial target at 99.11 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 99.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, a dip below the initial support level at 98.53 (S1) is liable to trigger protective orders execution and drive market price towards to supportive means at 98.38 (S2) and 98.21 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.94, 99.11, 99.29

Support Levels: 98.53, 98.38, 98.21

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 29, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 29 2013

Japan's PM Abe rethinks sales tax hike; inflation case strengthens?

Japan's most significant fiscal reform in years, that is, a planned hike from 5% to 8% in sales tax by April 2014, faces the prospects of being delayed or watered down as concerns mount the tax increase may do more harm than good to the delicate economic recovery in the country. According to a report from Reuters earlier on Monday: "PM Abe says he will decide in the autumn whether to proceed with the first part of the two-stage plan after gauging the state of the economic recovery, especially GDP data that is due on Sept 9."

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

2013-07-29 08:30 GMT | UK. Mortgage Approvals

2013-07-29 14:00 GMT | US. Pending Home Sales (YoY)

2013-07-29 23:50 GMT | Japan. Industrial Production (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-29 05:20 GMT | USD/JPY pulling back after Kuroda headlines make the rounds

2013-07-29 04:50 GMT | GBP/USD capped below big 1.54 figure

2013-07-29 04:44 GMT | EUR/USD approaching flat line for the session after initial upside

2013-07-29 04:09 GMT | AUD/JPY hovering above Friday’s lows of 90.56. Target 89.39, but will it bounce first?

EURUSD

HIGH 1.32936 LOW 1.32735 BID 1.32770 ASK 1.32775 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 34:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market took a breath after last days gains. Though possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3297 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3316 (R2) and 1.3333 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fractal level, formed on the 24-07-2013 provides an important supportive mark at 1.3256 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.3237 (S2) and 1.3217 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3297, 1.3316, 1.3333

Support Levels: 1.3256, 1.3237, 1.3217

--------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54043 LOW 1.53747 BID 1.53816 ASK 1.53823 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 34:39

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.5419 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5445 (R2) and 1.5470 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible recovery action might get acceleration below the support level at 1.5370 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5343 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5316 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5419, 1.5445, 1.5470

Support Levels: 1.5370, 1.5343, 1.5316

-------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.34 LOW 97.633 BID 97.880 ASK 97.880 CHANGE -0.37% TIME 08 : 34:40

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative and possible price appreciation is limited to resistive barrier at 98.21 (R1). Prolonged movement above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 98.46 (R2) and 98.71 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further market weakening is protected by important technical level at 97.63 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 97.39 (S2) en route to final aim at 97.14 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.21, 98.46, 98.71

Support Levels: 97.63, 97.39, 97.14

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 30, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 30 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 30 2013

RBA Stevens speech recap: Still some scope to ease after last CPI

Governor of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, is giving his annual speech to The Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney, and some explosive comments are now crossing the wires. The topic of the speech is current issues in economic policy. According to RBA's Stevens, long rise in mining investment is now over, saying that coming fall could be "quite big". Stevens said that easing is working to shift investors to taking some more risk, adding that shift in risk taking not yet a serious impediment to further policy easing. Stevens remained dovish on his tone, saying that "still has some scope to ease after inflation data." On the Aussie value, Stevens wouldn't be surprised if it falls further, as "the fall makes economic sense."

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/30072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-30 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Confidence (Jul)

2013-07-30 12:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-30 14:00 GMT | US. Consumer Confidence (Jul)

2013-07-30 23:13 GMT | Japan. Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (Jul)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-30 05:38 GMT | AUD/JPY slashes below key support at 89.39 on Stevens comments

2013-07-30 05:05 GMT | AUD/USD craters below recent trading range on Stevens’ speech

2013-07-30 05:03 GMT | NZD/USD breaks below 0.80 following RBA Stevens

2013-07-30 03:51 GMT | USD/JPY explodes towards 98.40/50 stops

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32661 LOW 1.32474 BID 1.32587 ASK 1.32590 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 40:16

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.3273 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.3288 (R2) and 1.3304 (R3) Downwards scenario: If the price manages to clear an important technical level at 1.3247 (S1), recovery action might get more stimulus. Our next support levels locates at 1.3232 (S2) and 1.3217 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3273, 1.3288, 1.3304

Support Levels: 1.3247, 1.3232, 1.3217

---------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53438 LOW 1.53152 BID 1.53391 ASK 1.53398 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5345 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5360 (R2) and 1.5376 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Further downtrend expansion might face next hurdle at the local low- 1.5314 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 1.5299 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.5283 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5345, 1.5360, 1.5376

Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5299, 1.5283

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.463 LOW 97.849 BID 98.372 ASK 98.376 CHANGE 0.43% TIME 08 : 40:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly negative however we expect resuming of the recovery action if the price manages to overcome key resistive bastion at 98.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.96 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 97.99 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 97.73 (S2) and then final aim lie at 97.47 (S3) price level.

Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.71, 98.96

Support Levels: 97.99, 97.73, 97.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

jogi shah · July 30, 2013

Thanks for share.

alayoua · July 31, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 31 2013

The world awaits the FOMC decision and statements

Unlike many of the recent Fed meetings, Today’s meeting will feature only the FOMC’s decision and accompanying statement – but still the world is watching. Today’s interest rate decision will only be accompanied by their official statement regarding their decision. Traders and analysts are hoping for more guidance on the Fed’s plans regarding their bond buying program.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/31072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-31 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

2013-07-31 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)

2013-07-31 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision

2013-07-31 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-31 04:43 GMT | Today is the big day, USD to be pressured - SocGen

2013-07-31 04:29 GMT | FOMC client survey results; most hold USD longs - Nomura

2013-07-31 04:25 GMT | NZD/USD holding above 0.7950 while capped below 0.80

2013-07-31 04:04 GMT | USD to strengthen as 'dovish' Fed priced in - RBS

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3268 LOW 1.32517 BID 1.32572 ASK 1.32577 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 46:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: All supports and resistances remains the same today. Mark at 1.3273 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the pair keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.3288 (R2) and 1.3304 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the support at 1.3247 (S1) might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.3232 (S2) and 1.3217(S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3273, 1.3288, 1.3304

Support Levels: 1.3247, 1.3232, 1.3217

--------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52434 LOW 1.52185 BID 1.52244 ASK 1.52250 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 46:30

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the downside recently, turning short-term bias to the negative side. Though, upwards penetration above the resistance at 1.5252 (R1) might enable bullish forces and expose our initial targets at 1.5267 (R2) and 1.5282 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the support barrier at 1.5215 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5205 (S2) and then 1.5186 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5252, 1.5267, 1.5282

Support Levels: 1.5215, 1.5205, 1.5186

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.162 LOW 97.847 BID 98.019 ASK 98.020 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 46:31

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible volatility increase might commence new phase of downtrend extension either prolong retracement formation on the hourly chart frame. Price appreciation above the resistance at 98.23 (R1) would suggest intraday targets at 98.44 (R2) and 98.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, next on tap is seen support level at 97.74 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 97.49 (S2) and 97.25 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 98.23, 98.44, 98.65

Support Levels: 97.74, 97.49, 97.25

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 1, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 01 2013

Mixed data spur controversies on Chinese PMI data restrictions

Last month, the National Bureau of Statistics restrained industry-specific data upon publication of Purchasing Manufacturing indexes. Under the premise implying not enough resources were available to make such analysis public, the Chinese opted to suspend relevant information indicative of this year’s economic performance. As stated by the vice president of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, “We now have 3,000 samples in the survey, and from a technical point of view, time is very limited — there are many industries, you know”. While Chinese provide zero point zone explanations, speculation concerning the reasons behind such measures continues to surge.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-01 11:00 GMT | UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-08-01 11:45 GMT | EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision

2013-08-01 12:30 GMT | EMU. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

2013-08-01 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Manufacturing PMI

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-01 04:12 GMT | GBP/USD at fresh session lows ahead of London

2013-08-01 03:09 GMT | USD/JPY totally flat for the week above 98 waiting NFP

2013-08-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.8858 and 8775 next targets - 2ndSkies

2013-08-01 02:25 GMT | EUR/USD flat for the week inside a 150 pip range

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.33108 LOW 1.32661 BID 1.32698 ASK 1.32702 CHANGE -0.25% TIME 08 : 45:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possible upside penetration looks limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.3288 (R1). Appreciation above this mark might gradually push the pair toward to next targets at 1.3304 (R2) and 1.3319 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3252 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.3238 (S2) and 1.3223 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3288, 1.3304, 1.3319

Support Levels: 1.3252, 1.3238, 1.3223

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52102 LOW 1.51535 BID 1.51597 ASK 1.51599 CHANGE -0.3% TIME 08 : 45:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible buying interest might push the pair to attack next resistive measure at 1.5187 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume upside formation, targeting marks at 1.5207 (R2) and 1.5226 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 1.5146 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 1.5128 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 1.5109 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5187, 1.5207, 1.5226

Support Levels: 1.5146, 1.5128, 1.5109

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.375 LOW 97.658 BID 98.350 ASK 98.353 CHANGE 0.52% TIME 08 : 46:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Risk of further price appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 98.46 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 98.66 (R2) and then final aim locates at 98.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 98.11 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 97.90 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 97.69 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.66, 98.86

Support Levels: 98.11, 97.90, 97.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 5, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 05 2013

Australian services sector falls below 40.00, first time since GFC

Earlier on the session it was learnt that the Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) fell deeper into the red, this time by 2.1 points to 39.4 in July, suggesting further contraction in activity. This is the lowest level for the Australian PSI® since March 2009, Ai Group reported, saying that "outside the GFC-related downturn in 2008-09, it is the first time the Australian PSI® has fallen below 40 points."

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-05 07:58 GMT | EMU. Markit Services PMI

2013-08-05 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Services PMI (Jul)

2013-08-05 09:00 GMT | EMU. Retail Sales (YoY)

2013-08-05 14:00 GMT | US. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-05 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD mustering a modest bounce after five straight down sessions

2013-08-05 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD enters heavy data week oversold and with the world leaning against it

2013-08-05 04:09 GMT | EUR/USD, sellers protect 1.3280 resistance

2013-08-05 03:24 GMT | USD/JPY easing below 99.00

------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32868 LOW 1.32635 BID 1.32788 ASK 1.32791 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 33:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break of next resistive structure at 1.3293 (R1) is required to spark stronger upside action. In such scenario we would suggest our next initial targets 1.3304 (R2) and 1.3316 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3263 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3252 (S2) and 1.3241 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3293, 1.3304, 1.3316

Support Levels: 1.2263, 1.3252, 1.3241

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52969 LOW 1.5259 BID 1.52751 ASK 1.52756 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 33:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated above the Friday’s high. On the way is key resistive measure at 1.5309 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.5330 (R2) and 1.5350 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 1.5248 (S1). Breakthrough here would open road for a recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5233 (S2) and 1.5212 (R3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5309, 1.5330, 1.5350

Support Levels: 1.5248, 1.5233, 1.5212

-------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.15 LOW 98.706 BID 98.771 ASK 98.776 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 33:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 99.15 (R1) would suggest next targets at 99.32 (R2) and 99.49 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further recovery phase is limited now to the next supportive barrier at 98.65 (S1). Only loss here would enable our intraday targets at 98.50 (S2) and 98.34 (S3) on the downside.

Resistance Levels: 99.15, 99.32, 99.49

Support Levels: 98.65, 98.50, 98.34

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 6, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 06 2013

AUD/USD rallies initially after RBA, but a lot of resistance looms

The AUD/USD came into the RBA decision very oversold and ready squeeze the bears. Despite the initial pop, technicians say there’s plenty of resistance to conquer before the bulls take control of the macro picture. The initial positive reaction following the RBA’s 25 basis point rate cut appears to be the market weeding out those shorts who were banking on a 50 basis point cut. While nobody knows exactly how much money was being bet against the AUD/USD, but the mercilous selling that led to the extreme oversold readings made it quite apparent that the short-Aussie trade was extremely crowded – and the markets do not treat crowded trades well typically. The good news for bears that were not over-leveraged is that the RBA hinted that they stand at the ready to act further if growth continues to be a problem and inflation remains benign.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-06 08:30 GMT | UK. Industrial Production (YoY)

2013-08-06 12:30 GMT | US. Trade Balance

2013-08-06 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)

2013-08-06 22:45 GMT | NZ. Unemployment Rate (Q2)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-06 05:04 GMT | Japan June Leading Economic Index falls to 107 vs 110.7

2013-08-06 04:48 GMT | USD pares loses; RBA cuts 25bps as expected

2013-08-06 04:47 GMT | EUR/AUD, on never-ending downfall?

2013-08-06 03:48 GMT | USD/JPY, Houston, do we have a problem?

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32714 LOW 1.32526 BID 1.32546 ASK 1.32552 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 40:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in uptrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3272 (R1) would suggest initial targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3292 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.3250 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.3241 (S2) and 1.3231 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3272, 1.3282, 1.3292

Support Levels: 1.3250, 1.3241, 1.3231

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53689 LOW 1.53362 BID 1.53376 ASK 1.53385 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 40:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Further bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.5378 (R1). Break here would then be targeting 1.5396 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.5415 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5319 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5301(S2) and 1.5281 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5378, 1.5396, 1.5415

Support Levels: 1.5319, 1.5301, 1.5281

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.377 LOW 97.838 BID 98.350 ASK 98.353 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 40:55

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 98.46 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 98.63 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 98.80 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 98.03 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 97.86 (S2) and 97.69 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.63, 98.80

Support Levels: 98.03, 97.86, 97.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 7, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 07 2013

GBP/USD fading after failed test of 1.5435 level; BOE report looms

The GBPUSD runs the risk of cascading lower yet again after it ran up to “correction resistance” and failed. The BOE’s inflation report and Mr. Carney’s appearance before Parliament are sure to create a sharp move. The GBP/USD cross rallied sharply on Dollar weakness following Friday’s jobs report in the US. The bullish tone carried over into Sunday night’s open and continued to stair-step higher until just after Britain’s industrial and manufacturing production numbers were released. Shortly after those numbers came out, the GBP/USD began to sell off – this time in a stair-step pattern in the opposite direction. So far, there is still a chance that the latest bit of selling is just a correction lower leading up to the next thrust higher. But, technicians say that a break below 1.5213 would put out any bullish flame.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-07 09:30 GMT | Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

2013-08-07 09:30 GMT | Mark Carney speaks at UK Parliament

2013-08-07 12:30 GMT | Canada. Building Permits (MoM) (Jun)

2013-08-07 19:00 GMT | US Consumer Credit Change (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-07 05:20 GMT | EUR/GBP up after Tuesday’s gains ahead of BOE inflation report

2013-08-07 04:26 GMT | AUD/USD downtrend dominant; targets at 0.8550, 0.8675 - ANZ

2013-08-07 03:20 GMT | GBP/USD fading after failed test of 1.5435 level; BOE report looms

2013-08-07 02:49 GMT | Risk of a dovish BoJ - RBS

-----------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33156 LOW 1.32926 BID 1.33025 ASK 1.33028 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 41:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation mode on the hourly chart frame. Next resistive barrier is seen at 1.3315 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.3324 (R2) and 1.3332 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3292 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3283 (S2) and 1.3273 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3315, 1.3324, 1.3332

Support Levels: 1.3292, 1.3283, 1.3273

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53635 LOW 1.53173 BID 1.53347 ASK 1.53352 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 41:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 1.5363 (R1). Violation here would increase bullish pressure and suggest next intraday targets at 1.5387 (R2) and 1.5412 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.5317 (S1), right below the local minimum. Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.5295 (S2) and 1.5273 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5387, 1.5412

Support Levels: 1.5317, 1.5295, 1.5273

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.804 LOW 97.092 BID 97.226 ASK 97.230 CHANGE -0.52% TIME 08 : 41:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Descending structure suggests possible correction ahead. Break above the resistance at 97.58 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 97.83 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 98.07 (R3) Downwards scenario: Local low offers an important supportive measure at 97.08 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to initial targets at 96.84 (S2) and 96.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.58, 97.83, 98.07

Support Levels: 97.08, 96.84, 96.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 8, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 08 2013

BoJ to keep massive monetary easing

BOJ kept monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, retaining its plan to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. The bank said that the CPI uptick from recent months will gradually accelerate as inflation expectations continue to rise on the whole. Monetary easing to continue until 2% inflation target reached, the BoJ said. On the economic outlook, the central bank said the Japanese economy is recoverying moderately but still faces many uncertainties.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-08 08:00 GMT | EMU ECB Monthly Report

2013-08-08 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims

2013-08-08 12:30 GMT | Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY)

2013-08-08 23:50 GMT | Japan. Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-08 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD resting below fresh 7-week highs at 1.3350

2013-08-08 04:50 GMT | AUD/NZD takes off to reach 1.1397 intraday highs

2013-08-08 04:50 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating gains above 1.55

2013-08-08 04:20 GMT | USD/CHF pocketing 0.13% gains on steady climb

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.33506 LOW 1.33281 BID 1.33485 ASK 1.33489 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 35:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.3346 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3358 (R2) and 1.3370 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 1.3327 (S1) might lead to the correction formation on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 1.3314 (S2) and 1.3302 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3346, 1.3358, 1.3370

Support Levels: 1.3327, 1.3314, 1.3302

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55067 LOW 1.54849 BID 1.55067 ASK 1.55071 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08 : 35:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation yesterday we expect to see some consolidation ahead. Though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5531 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.5557 (R2) and 1.5584 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.5478 (S1) limits possible retracement expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 1.5450 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.5424 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5531, 1.5557, 1.5584

Support Levels: 1.5478, 1.5450, 1.5424

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 96.935 LOW 96.322 BID 96.415 ASK 96.416 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 35:46

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible buying interest might arise above the resistance at 96.94 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 97.18 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 97.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, further downtrend development may encounter supportive measure at 96.30 (S1). Penetration through this level would targeting then supportive means at 96.08 (S2) and 95.84 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 96.94, 97.18, 97.42

Support Levels: 96.30, 96.08, 95.84

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 13, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 13 2013

Yen short trade revival subject to Japan's sales tax chatter...

By now, the market completes a full trading day in which investors and traders had the opportunity to digest what to make out of Monday's disappointing Japan Q2 GDP data, but most importantly, what might be the implications on the widely covered topic of the sales tax hike. As reported yesterday, the big miss in the Japanese growth figures, displaying a -1% negative deviation from 3.6% expected to 2.6% preliminary data, is not helping the case to implement a planned 3% aggressive increase on the sales tax. Historically, there are well-founded reasons to fear that the economy may face some undesirable headwinds if being too aggressive on a tax hike. Japanese policy-makers are growing more vocal on softer option to take on, including either a more conservative 1% incremental approach on the sales tax, or even delaying the tax hike by one year after Japan's PM Abe Adviser, Mr. Hamada,was quoted earlier yesterday saying "there is no need to hurry with the sales tax hike after the weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP as it might harm the economy." On the flip side, BoJ Chief Kuroda said last week that it is not necessary a delay in the sales tax hike, saying that “ending deflation and raising the sales tax are achievable at the same time.”

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-13 08:30 GMT | UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

2013-08-13 09:00 GMT | EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul)

2013-08-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

2013-08-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD working off overbought condition with current pullback

2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | EUR/GBP treading water above 0.86 ahead of UK CPI

2013-08-13 03:56 GMT | EUR/JPY pushed up to fresh new 129.60 highs

2013-08-13 03:42 GMT | EUR/USD ignited on impressive rally

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3313 LOW 1.32891 BID 1.33032 ASK 1.33032 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 34:53

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized. A violation of next resistance at 1.3313 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3327 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the session low at 1.3288 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3275 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3262 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3327, 1.3340

Support Levels: 1.3288, 1.3275, 1.3262

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54649 LOW 1.54472 BID 1.54599 ASK 1.54607 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 34:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.5485 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5538 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside Cable is approaching our next supportive barrier at 1.5442 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.5415 (S2) and 1.5388 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5485, 1.5512, 1.5538

Support Levels: 1.5442, 1.5415, 1.5388

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.561 LOW 96.857 BID 97.451 ASK 97.454 CHANGE 0.57% TIME 08 : 34:55

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 97.65 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.88 (R2) and 98.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 97.14 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 96.93 (S2) and 96.70 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 97.65, 97.88, 98.11

Support Levels: 97.14, 96.93, 96.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 14, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013

Fed’s Lockhart reiterates September reduction in Federal bond buying

In news that will certainly resonate through FX Markets, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reported that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing its bond-buying stimulus as early as its September meeting – despite inflation still being below its targeted values. One of the more pressing concerns facing investors and policymakers alike is that the U.S. economic performance is too volatile or unstable for Federal Reserve policymakers to initiate their comprehensive plan for both reducing and eventually halting their asset-purchasing program as early as next month. Ultimately though, Lockhart appeared open or receptive to at least a modest pullback in Federal monetary stimulus from its current pace of $85 billion per month. "I wouldn't rule out September," he stated. "As I see it, a decision to proceed - whether it is in September, October, or December - ought to be thought of as a cautious first step." Indeed, U.S. inflation has been running well below the Fed's 2.0% target for some time – historically very low. However Lockhart noted he did not see any signs that deflation was accelerating, reiterating that the current inflationary backdrop would still be consistent with a modest pullback in quantitative easing.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14082013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-14 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)

2013-08-14 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes

2013-08-14 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)

2013-08-14 12:30 GMT | US. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-14 05:01 GMT | EUR/USD grinds sideways at 1.3263 in advance of key European data

2013-08-14 04:56 GMT | EUR/GBP capped below 0.86 ahead of UK jobs data

2013-08-14 04:10 GMT | USD marginally lower on Yen strength; Hong-Kong closed

2013-08-14 03:12 GMT | Next RBA cut November, more cuts may follow - NAB

--------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3268 LOW 1.32532 BID 1.32638 ASK 1.32640 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 38:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable below the moving averages, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3269 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our intraday targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3294 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.3246 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3234 (S2) and 1.3221 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3269, 1.3282, 1.3294

Support Levels: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3221

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54535 LOW 1.54362 BID 1.54425 ASK 1.54434 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 38:21

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5472 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 1.5498 (R2) and then mark at 1.5524 (R3) acts as last resistive measure today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5425 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.5401 (S2) and 1.5375 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5472, 1.5498, 1.5524

Support Levels: 1.5425, 1.5401, 1.5375

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.406 LOW 97.866 BID 98.386 ASK 98.388 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 38:22

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Yesterday price acceleration on the upside suggests medium-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 98.52 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.89 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 97.85 (S1) is required to enable possible retracement development. Our next supportive measures locates at 97.65 (S2) and 97.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.52, 98.71, 98.89

Support Levels: 97.85, 97.65, 97.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · August 15, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 15 2013

EUR/USD rips vertically on a 10-minute chart; still vulnerable macro set-up

The EUR/USD just ripped straight higher for over 400 pips on non-news related buying. Still, any upside is corrective in nature unless 1.3414 is conquered say technicians. EUR/USD will likely be trading off of US data Thursday Despite the rip higher that just occurred on the intraday chart, the macro picture appears to be setting up for much more downside once this upside correction runs its course. The European markets are closed for the most part Thursday in honor of Ascension Day.

http://www.einvestorsforum.com/#sthash.YmmEQouT.dpbs

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-08-15 12:30 GMT | US. Consumer Price Index (MoM)/(YoY) (Jul)

2013-08-15 12:30 GMT | US. Initial Jobless Claims

2013-08-15 13:15 GMT | US. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

2013-08-15 14:00 GMT | US. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jul)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-08-15 04:35 GMT | EUR/GBP sitting above 0.8550 ahead of UK retail sales

2013-08-15 04:22 GMT | USD/JPY hits ceiling at 97.80

2013-08-15 03:45 GMT | GBP/AUD below 1.70 testing June highs as support now

2013-08-15 03:15 GMT | AUD/JPY struggles to break 90.00 but looking bullish

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33103 LOW 1.3253 BID 1.32896 ASK 1.32897 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 08 : 09:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.3310 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.3341 (R2) onto 1.3367 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3241 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3223 (S2) and 1.3202 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3310, 1.3341, 1.3367

Support Levels: 1.3241, 1.3223, 1.3202

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55232 LOW 1.54978 BID 1.55187 ASK 1.55193 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 09:03

OUTLOOK : SUMMARY

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5538 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5566 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5601 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 1.5496 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5467 (S2) and 1.5436 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5538, 1.5566, 1.5601

Support Levels: 1.5496, 1.5467, 1.5436

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.296 LOW 97.584 BID 97.732 ASK 97.737 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08:09:04

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 98.25 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 98.56 (R2) and then final aim would be 98.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 97.60 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 97.30 (S2) and 97.02 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.25, 98.56, 98.77

Support Levels: 97.60, 97.30, 97.02

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 2, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 02 2013

Obama seeks Congressional approval before launching attack against Syria

U.S. President Barack Obama has delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress, a decision that may take no less than 10 days to be given. As Obama said, in a hastily organized appearance in the Rose Garden, "I’m prepared to give that order, but having made my decision as commander in chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the president of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy.” According to John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, “we expect the House to consider a measure the week of September 9.″

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02092013

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-02 07:53 GMT | DE Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 08:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 15:30 GMT | US 6-Month Bill Auction

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-02 05:06 GMT | EUR/USD now trading lower and below key support at 1.3205

2013-09-02 04:50 GMT | Australian Dollar faces monumental week - UBS

2013-09-02 03:54 GMT | GBP/USD creeps north; target at 1.56

2013-09-02 03:18 GMT | EUR/GBP rapidly approaching projected downside target at 0.8472

---------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.32141 LOW 1.31917 BID 1.32094 ASK 1.32097 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 32:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possible retracement action is limited now to the next resistive measure at 1.3226 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 1.3248 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.3270 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Our next support measure lies at 1.3174 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3152 (S2) and 1.3130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3226, 1.3248, 1.3270

Support Levels: 1.3174, 1.3152, 1.3130

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55658 LOW 1.55056 BID 1.55500 ASK 1.55503 CHANGE 0.36% TIME 08 : 33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD clearly determined positive bias on the short-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive measure at 1.5556 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.5582 (R2) and 1.5598 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.5527 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.5510 (S2) and then 1.5493 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5556, 1.5582, 1.5598

Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5510, 1.5493

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.674 LOW 98.275 BID 98.598 ASK 98.603 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 98.75 (R1) would enable recovery phase towards to next targets at 98.88 (R2) and 99.01 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 98.47 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 98.34 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 98.21 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.75, 98.88, 99.01

Support Levels: 98.47, 98.34, 98.21

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 2, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 02 2013

Obama seeks Congressional approval before launching attack against Syria

U.S. President Barack Obama has delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress, a decision that may take no less than 10 days to be given. As Obama said, in a hastily organized appearance in the Rose Garden, "I’m prepared to give that order, but having made my decision as commander in chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the president of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy.” According to John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, “we expect the House to consider a measure the week of September 9.″

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02092013

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-02 07:53 GMT | DE Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 08:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-02 15:30 GMT | US 6-Month Bill Auction

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-02 05:06 GMT | EUR/USD now trading lower and below key support at 1.3205

2013-09-02 04:50 GMT | Australian Dollar faces monumental week - UBS

2013-09-02 03:54 GMT | GBP/USD creeps north; target at 1.56

2013-09-02 03:18 GMT | EUR/GBP rapidly approaching projected downside target at 0.8472

---------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.32141 LOW 1.31917 BID 1.32094 ASK 1.32097 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 32:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possible retracement action is limited now to the next resistive measure at 1.3226 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 1.3248 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.3270 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Our next support measure lies at 1.3174 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3152 (S2) and 1.3130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3226, 1.3248, 1.3270

Support Levels: 1.3174, 1.3152, 1.3130

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55658 LOW 1.55056 BID 1.55500 ASK 1.55503 CHANGE 0.36% TIME 08 : 33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD clearly determined positive bias on the short-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive measure at 1.5556 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.5582 (R2) and 1.5598 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.5527 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.5510 (S2) and then 1.5493 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5556, 1.5582, 1.5598

Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5510, 1.5493

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.674 LOW 98.275 BID 98.598 ASK 98.603 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 98.75 (R1) would enable recovery phase towards to next targets at 98.88 (R2) and 99.01 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 98.47 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 98.34 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 98.21 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.75, 98.88, 99.01

Support Levels: 98.47, 98.34, 98.21

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 3, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 03 2013

RBA keeps rate at 2.5%, easing bias removal?

The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 2.5% record lows, with the Monetary Policy Statement offering some interesting clues, saying "the Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed", omitting a more aggressive narrative seen in last few months. While the door to reduce rates further is not closed, the statement sounds not as dovish as one may have expected, yet the value of the Australian Dollar and domestic indicators will continue to determine the future rate setting. For now, looks like AUD bulls will gain Sept battle.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-03 08:30 GMT | UK PMI Construction (Aug)

2013-09-03 09:00 GMT | EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

2013-09-03 12:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

2013-09-03 14:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-03 05:38 GMT | GBP/USD drifting higher for a 3rd session after rough 2 weeks; 1.5587 key hurdle

2013-09-03 05:07 GMT | AUD/USD spikes above 0.9000 after RBA

2013-09-03 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD extends choppy range; remains at 30-day lows

2013-09-03 04:03 GMT | USD/JPY continues to consolidate above 99.00

-------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31968 LOW 1.31778 BID 1.31800 ASK 1.31804 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 44:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of retracement formation is seen above the yesterday high -1.3227 (R1). Break here is required to clear the way towards to higher targets at 1.3248 (R2) and 1.3269 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low at 1.3173 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3152 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3227, 1.3248, 1.3269

Support Levels: 1.3173, 1.3152, 1.3130

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.5562 LOW 1.55379 BID 1.55491 ASK 1.55498 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 44:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Fresh fractal level at 1.5562 (R1) prevents further gains. Successful clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5580 (R2) and 1.5597 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, next support level locates at 1.5530 (S1). Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.5513 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.5496 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5562, 1.5580, 1.5597

Support Levels: 1.5530, 1.5513, 1.5496

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.703 LOW 99.302 BID 99.555 ASK 99.557 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 44:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 99.71 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 99.93 (R2) and 100.15 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 99.29 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 99.06 (S2) and 98.82 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.71, 99.93, 100.15

Support Levels: 99.29, 99.06, 98.82

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 4, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 04 2013

New Syria resolution in Senate sets 90-day deadline for U.S. military action

A new use-of-force resolution for Syria sets a 60-day deadline, with one 30-day extension possible, for U.S. President Barack Obama to launch military strikes against Syria, reports Politico from a revised draft authorization, also adding it will also bar the involvement of U.S. ground forces in Syria. As Politico adds: "The revised resolution was crafted by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), the chairman and ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, following several days of negotiations." The proposal could go for voting by Wednesday.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-04 09:00 GMT | EMU Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)

2013-09-04 12:30 GMT | US Trade Balance (Jul)

2013-09-04 14:00 GMT | CA BoC Interest Rate Decision

2013-09-04 18:00 GMT | US Fed's Beige Book

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-04 05:20 GMT | Deeply oversold EUR/GBP breaking all support and projections on downside

2013-09-04 05:14 GMT | USD/CHF is trading nearly its daily highs

2013-09-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD stuck below 1.5587 key hurdle ahead of Wednesday’s data

2013-09-04 04:00 GMT | EUR/USD, potential of a sharp test of 1.3050 - ANZ

-------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31761 LOW 1.31619 BID 1.31678 ASK 1.31682 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 51:30

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized near its local low. A violation of next resistance at 1.3194 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3215 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3235 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important resistive measure at 1.3138 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.3117 (S2) and 1.3097 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3194, 1.3215, 1.3235

Support Levels: 1.3138, 1.3117, 1.3097

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55677 LOW 1.5555 BID 1.55616 ASK 1.55621 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 51:30

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains favored on the hourly chart frame, however possible extension above the resistive measure at 1.5582 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5597 (R2) and 1.5611 (R3). Downwards scenario: An evidence of possible descending structure could be provided if the pair manages to surpass key support level at 1.5543 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5529 (S2) and 1.5514 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5582, 1.5597, 1.5611

Support Levels: 1.5543, 1.5529, 1.5514

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.769 LOW 99.418 BID 99.723 ASK 99.725 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 51:31

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable above the moving averages. Clearance of next resistance level at 99.88 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 100.15 (R2) and 100.41 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.40 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 99.14 (S2) and 98.89 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.88, 100.15, 100.41

Support Levels: 99.40, 99.14, 98.89

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 5, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 05 2013

Today's main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon

oday’s main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon. In our view, there are fewer arguments for a rate cut today than a month ago, given recent upside surprises in economic indicators and a slower pace of decline in excess liquidity (see ECB Preview: Keep the powder dry). Hence, we expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged and Draghi to refrain from explaining further the forward guidance.

The EUR/USD is trading downwards ahead of ECB and G20 meeting, but still remains above its 200-day moving average. Will the EUR/USD finally manage to break its 200-day MA at 1.3144? The pair is under pressure again, after a short relief in Wednesday’s trading session. The global equities rally rounded out by the biggest advance for the US Indexes in two weeks, pushed downwards the American dollar on Wednesday, i.e. the single currency got a small relief yesterday. Still, risk over the next 48 hours is of great significance and should be considered more trend defining. The G20 meeting doesn’t have a definitely positive or negative outcome, but Friday’s NFPs do. For today’s ECB meeting, there are obviously many members of the Governing Council who want to convince the market that rate hikes are still an “illusion”. -FXstreet.com

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h All G20 Meeting

2013-09-05 11:00 GMT BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-09-05 11:45 GMT ECB Interest Rate Decision

2013-09-05 12:30 GMT ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-05 05:36 GMT EUR/USD still under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

2013-09-05 05:34 GMT USD/JPY now at key resistance at 99.94 after rally of the last hour

2013-09-05 04:42 GMT EUR/GBP glued to 0.8450 ahead of BoE & ECB

2013-09-05 04:24 GMT GBP/JPY confined in a tight range

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32076 LOW 1.31644 BID 1.31689 ASK 1.31694 CHANGE -0.29% TIME 08 : 44:52

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum on the downside recently and likely will close on the negative territory today. However, clearance of our next resistive structure at 1.3200 (R1) would open way towards to our initial target at 1.3218 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3235 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible market weakening is protected by important technical level at 1.3157 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.3138 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3119 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3200, 1.3218, 1.3235

Support Levels: 1.3157, 1.3138, 1.3119

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56275 LOW 1.55956 BID 1.56032 ASK 1.56038 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 44:53

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.5636 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5652 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5670 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 1.5593 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this level would open way towards to next target at 1.5575 (S2) and then final aim lie at 1.5557 (S3) price level.

Resistance Levels: 1.5636, 1.5652, 1.5670

Support Levels: 1.5593, 1.5575, 1.5557

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.982 LOW 99.644 BID 99.852 ASK 99.857 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 44:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 100.15 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 100.41 (R2) and 100.66 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the supportive measure at 99.53 (S1) would confirm bearish medium-term tendency and validate our next intraday targets at 99.27 (S2) and 98.99 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.41, 100.66

Support Levels: 99.53, 99.27, 98.99

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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