alayoua Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 09 2013 Eurozone crisis still far from over Eurozone unemployment reached a record high of 11.8% in November, the European Commission reported on Tuesday. Data also showed an increase in youth unemployment to 24.4%. This proves that the crisis in the area is still far from over, despite recent opinions to the contrary (including European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso’s hopeful declarations this morning). Martin van Vliet from ING, who notices this latest wave of optimism among Eurozone consumers and businesses suggests that “with more fiscal austerity in the pipeline, the debt crisis still unresolved, and unemployment rising (and hitting a fresh record high of 11.8% in November), consumers and hence businesses still have plenty to worry about. Moreover, despite the recent improvement, Eurozone economic sentiment remains in recession territory.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a meeting with Greek PM Antonis Samaras in Berlin on Tuesday, during which the Greek leader assured that his country was delivering on promises to implement austerity measures and was carrying out reforms in return for European aid. “We are trying to win back credibility, on the part of the people of Europe and on the part of the markets,” Samaras told reporters during a press conference. Angela Merkel praised Greece’s efforts to reduce its debt load so far and expressed her interest in the progress of implementation of the previously agreed austerity measures. She also warned that 2013 will be a tough year for the Eurozone. “We must agree on stronger economic policy cooperation by June this year, and there is plenty of work ahead of us,” she said. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-09-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-09 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Nov) 2013-01-09 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q4) 2013-01-09 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov) 2013-01-09 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Dec) Forex News 2013-01-09 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD lacks stimulus; earnings, Fed speeches, ECB eyed 2013-01-09 05:05 GMT | GBP/USD looking again toward 1.6000 2013-01-09 04:13 GMT | EUR/JPY below MoF Aso ESM level of 114.55-60 2013-01-09 02:36 GMT | USD/JPY moves above descending trend line; hits 87.50 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.30933 | LOW: 1.30671 | BID: 1.30843 | ASK: 1.30849 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 18:43 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the 1.3103 (R1) might boost the upside pressure. Next visible resistance levels are expected at 1.3118 (R2) and 1.3134 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fresh low, formed today is pointing to key short-term support level at 1.3067 (S1). Decline below it would suggest next intraday target at 1.3052 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.3036 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3118, 1.3134 Support Levels: 1.3067, 1.3052, 1.3036 ------------------------ GBPUSD HIGH: 1.60684 | LOW: 1.60368 | BID: 1.60533 | ASK: 1.60543 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08 : 18:44 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Our retail trading market sentiment indicator shows, that market participants are bullish. Penetration above the 1.6069 (R1) might lead to the protective orders execution and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.6088 (R2) and 1.6105 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level stays at 1.6036 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.6020 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.6003 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6069, 1.6088, 1.6105 Support Levels: 1.6036, 1.6020, 1.6003 -------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 87.543 | LOW: 86.829 | BID: 87.387 | ASK: 87.393 | CHANGE: 0.41% | TIME: 08 : 18:45 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: The short-term tendency for the price is oriented to the upside. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 87.56 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 87.71 (R2) onto 87.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the pair gains momentum today on the downside and overcome our next support level at 87.22 (S1) then intraday outlook would turn into negative territory. Possible targets could be exposed at 87.07 (S2) and 86.92 (S3). Resistance Levels: 87.56, 87.71, 87.86 Support Levels: 87.22, 87.07, 86.92 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 10 2013 Limited chance of ECB rate cut in January; BoE unlikely to act Not much excitement is expected from the first ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings of 2013, as the majority of economists believe both central banks will remain on hold this month. Nevertheless, there are some doubts concerning ECB's action, as Mario Draghi hinted in December at a possibility of another rate reduction. The general expectation for ECB's January monetary policy meeting is that of no change. Despite the fact that the central bank signalized its readiness to perform further rate cuts, "they know as well as everyone else in the market that we can’t carry on with such low interest rates for ever," as Steve Ruffley suggests. Other contributors point out that the OMT program has brought relief to the markets, that peripheral countries' bond yields have dropped and that "fundamentals are showing signs of stabilization in major countries like France and Germany," in the words of Richard C. Lee, and that all of these factors significantly reduce the need for a cut. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10012013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-10 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision 2013-01-10 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision 2013-01-10 13:30 GMT | Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 2013-01-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Nov) Forex News 2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | EUR/GBP flat around 0.8150 ahead of BoE/ECB 2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | Can the ECB bring clarity to the EUR/USD? 2013-01-10 05:18 GMT | NZD/JPY highest since Sept 2008 above 74.00 2013-01-10 04:52 GMT | USD/JPY rally reaching a peak - ANZ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30661 LOW 1.30388 BID 1.30458 ASK 1.30464 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 07 : 55:11 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3058 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we suggest next target at 1.3073 (R2) with possibility to reach final resistance at 1.3087 (R3). Today in focus- ECB Rate decision at 12:45 GMT. Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term negative market sentiment would be valid. Key support lie at 1.3036 (S1), below here opens route towards to our initial targets at 1.3021 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3073, 1.3087 Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3021, 1.3005 --------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.60269 LOW 1.6004 BID 1.60102 ASK 1.60112 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 07 : 55:12 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: BOE Interest Rate decision at 12:00 GMT might increase volatility today. Next immediate resistance is seen at 1.6036 (R1). Above that level opens a route towards to higher target at 1.6059 (R2) and any further price advance would then be targeting 1.6083 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market seems to have found a base at fresh low formed yesterday. Below here locates our next support level at 1.5992 (S1) and opens way towards to immediate supports at 1.5969 (S2) and 1.5945 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6036, 1.6059, 1.6083 Support Levels: 1.5992, 1.5969, 1.5945 ----------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 88.213 LOW 87.862 BID 88.178 ASK 88.183 CHANGE 0.35% TIME 07 : 55:13 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY having during the Asian session and found an element of resistive measures at 88.22 (R1). Clearance of this level would suggest uptrend development with possible targets at 88.36 (R2) and 88.51 (R3) Downwards scenario: A corrective phase might occur below the immediate support level at 88.00 (S1). Clearance here is required to develop a short-term bearish momentum and expose our next target at 87.85 (S2). Any further correction would then be targeting 87.70 (S3). Resistance Levels: 88.22, 88.36, 88.51 Support Levels: 88.00, 87.85, 87.70 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 11 2013 Cautious economic optimism induces ECB to hold rates The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to maintain the main interest rate at 0.75% at their first monetary policy meeting of 2013. ECB head Mario Draghi revealed a more positive outlook on the European crisis during the press conference following the interest rate announcement. The president suggested that inflation should decline below 2% during 2013. He said that economic weakness in the Eurozone will extend into the new year but that it should give way to a recovery later in the year, as confidence in financial markets is improving gradually and bond yields are seen falling considerably. Credit conditions, already satisfactory, should continue improving as well, as the two long term refinancing operations helped stave off disorderly delevering. Mario Draghi stressed the importance of a rapid implementation of structural reforms by Eurozone governments in order to increase competitiveness in the area. This should boost growth potential and lead to a rise in employment. The ECB head also pointed out the necessity of establishing an integrated financial framework in the Eurozone of which the “single supervisory mechanism (SSM) is one of the main building blocks.” Jamie Coleman from Forex Live comments on ECB's lack of action this month: “Draghi did the euro a lot of good in the near-term by taking a rate cut off the table. But in the bigger picture he's done the ECB a disservice by leading the market to expect a rate cut at the December meeting only to change tack nearly 180 degrees at the following meeting. Central bankers are not supposed to react to each and every blip in sentiment and it appears that Draghi is doing just that.” https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11012013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-11 **:** GMT | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction 2013-01-11 09:30 GMT | United KIngdom. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 2013-01-11 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Nov) 2013-01-11 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Dec) Forex News 2013-01-11 05:42 GMT | EUR/GBP stalls the run higher ahead of key 0.8230 level 2013-01-11 05:31 GMT | NZD/JPY bears defend 75.40 2013-01-11 03:59 GMT | EUR/USD wallowing below 1.3300 ahead of the weekend 2013-01-11 02:40 GMT | NZD/USD at session lows below 0.8450 EURUSD : HIGH 1.32792 LOW 1.32504 BID 1.32582 ASK 1.32588 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 17:23 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum and formed clear uptrend formation. Currently price is stabilized near its high and resistance at 1.3277 (R1) is the next attractive point. If a break occurs here we expect gradual increase towards to our targets at 1.3288 (R2) and 1.3300 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative market sentiment would be provided if price decline below the low of the day at 1.3247 (S1). An hourly chart price setup is suggest next retracement formation targets at 1.3236 (S2) and 1.3224 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3277, 1.3288, 1.3300 Support Levels: 1.3247, 1.3236, 1.3224 ----------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.61773 LOW 1.61441 BID 1.61486 ASK 1.61497 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 17:24 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: If GBPUSD gains momentum and rose above the resistance at 1.6177 (R1), we expect further uptrend formation with next targets at 1.6191 (R2) and 1.6204 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: A short-term negative tendency might face immediate support at 1.6141 (S1). Below here open route towards to expected targets at 1.6127 (S2) and 1.6112 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6191, 1.6204 Support Levels: 1.6141, 1.6127, 1.6112 -------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 89.346 LOW 88.689 BID 89.047 ASK 89.053 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08 : 17:24 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive after slight correction, provided today. Our next resistance is placed at 89.35 (R1). Rise above it might push price towards to next targets at 89.53 (R2) and 89.70 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Current price deviation might face next support level at 88.77 (S1). We expect price downgrade towards to our targets at 88.59 (S2) and 88.41 (S3) as a part of consolidation formation in case of successful penetration below it. Resistance Levels: 89.35, 89.53, 89.70 Support Levels: 88.77, 88.59, 88.41 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (FX Central Clearing Ltd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 14 2013 Focus on Bernanke speech; revenge of the doves? With the European debt crisis temporarily buried underground, and the US debt ceiling still too many weeks far down the road to become a pressing issue, most of the weekend headlines were stolen by Japan and its quest to set a highly ambitious 2% inflation. However, on the horizon the sound of helicopter helices loom, as Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke prepares to give a speech at the University of Michigan at 21GMT, NY close time, following the latest controversial FOMC minutes. NAB notes: “This is his first public address since the December FOMC minutes that sparked so much chatter and market volatility surrounding the possibility that the Fed could mark time on the current phase of its QE programme by year end.” NAB expects Bernanke’s comments “to be directed at disabusing his audience that stropping balance sheet expansion as a prelude to commencing to take back policy stimulus are events that could be separated by years not months” the bank says. “If so, expect the USD to be subject to some fresh downward pressure…” NAB concludes. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-14-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-14 07:00 GMT | Germany. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov) 2013-01-14 15:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey 2013-01-14 21:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke Speech Forex News 2013-01-14 04:49 GMT | USD/JPY, watch the 20EMA for clues 2013-01-14 04:43 GMT | GBP/JPY climbing toward 145.00 2013-01-14 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD reverses course, back to fresh session highs 2013-01-14 03:27 GMT | EUR/USD prints fresh 10-month high at 1.3404 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EURUSD HIGH: 1.34036 | LOW: 1.33497 | BID: 1.33882 | ASK: 1.33890 | CHANGE: 0.35% | TIME: 08 : 02:49 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURJPY gained momentum on the upside and formed local high at 1.3404 (R1). In a thin market and economic calendar like today we are not expecting significant volatility increase, though a break here would suggest next targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.3463 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possibility of consolidation formation is high today. Decline below the support level at 1.3364 (S1) might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price towards to next support levels at 1.3336 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463 Support Levels: 1.3364, 1.3336, 1.3307 ---------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.61544 | LOW: 1.61168 | BID: 1.61397 | ASK: 1.61409 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08 : 02:50 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6158 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6180 (R2) and 1.6200 (R3) in potential Downwards scenario: If instrument gains momentum on the downside, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 1.6127 (S1). In such scenario we suggest next targets at 1.6106 (S2) and 1.6083 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6158, 1.6180, 1.6200 Support Levels: 1.6127, 1.6106, 1.6083 --------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 89.667 | LOW: 89.249 | BID: 89.613 | ASK: 89.618 | CHANGE: 0.49% | TIME: 08 : 02:51 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 89.70 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 89.93 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final target at 90.17 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our 20 Simple Moving Average at 89.34 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 89.09 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target for today at 88.85 (S3). Resistance Levels: 89.70, 89.93, 90.17 Support Levels: 89.34, 89.09, 88.85 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 15 2013 Bernanke provides no signs of QE expiration; raising debt ceiling crucial Ben Bernanke is giving a speech at the University of Michigan, with the talk centered on two big issues. One is the long run sustainability of the US debt, while the other is the fragile recovery. Fed's Bernanke said Federal budget must be brought under control, warning that plans to adjust the budget should be carefully well thought in order to avoid pushing the economy into recession He said that the economy "is not out of the woods", and stressed the improved optimism after the fiscal cliff deal, which in Bernanke's words, "eliminated a good bit of the restrictive components." Fed's Bernanke noted 'some modest improvement' in jobs market, although he wants to see rosier numbers in the economy and the labour market. With regards to the number of tools available to stimulate the economy, Bernanke said "the Fed is not out of ammunition", adding that judging by the reaction of markets since the establishments of the first QE program, "overall QE has succeeded in reducing long-term rates; we have found (QE) to be an effective tool." Bernanke said is early to determine the effect of asset purchases, suggesting the extension of QE in the near term seems a done deal, while waiting further proves, especially in the labour market, to determine length of QE extension. While growth has been moderate, the housing sector, has shown positives signs, Bernanke said. "For the first time since 06/07 we have seen sustained increase in home prices, which should help us throughout the year..." https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15012013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-15 07:00 GMT | Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-15 08:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) 2013-01-15 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-15 13:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forex News 2013-01-15 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates below 1.61 ahead of UK data 2013-01-15 04:39 GMT | EUR/AUD capped below 1.2700 2013-01-15 04:05 GMT | EUR/JPY strong rejection from 120s breaks below 119 2013-01-15 03:14 GMT | USD/JPY longs run to the exits; 88.62 new weekly low TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.33935 LOW 1.33482 BID 1.33557 ASK 1.33566 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 07 : 56:31 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Market sentiment looks balanced and false beak outs are possible. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.3404 (R1) might establish new leg of uptrend formation and enable higher targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.346 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure remains consolidative and easing below the support level at 1.3336 (S1) is likely scenario for today. Our targets located at 1.3307 (S2) and 1.3280 (S3) in perspective. Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463 Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3307, 1.3280 --------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.60938 LOW 1.60674 BID 1.60713 ASK 1.60723 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 07 : 56:32 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the range mode condition on the medium-term perspective. Risks of market strengthening are seen above the next resistance level at 1.6097 (R1). Our suggested targets locates at 1.6117 (R2) and 1.6138 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if it manages to surpass support level at 1.6064 (S1). Next support levels are seen at 1.6045 (S2) and 1.6026 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6097, 1.6117, 1.6138 Support Levels: 1.6064, 1.6045, 1.6026 -------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 89.629 LOW 88.618 BID 88.969 ASK 88.975 CHANGE -0.56% TIME 07 : 56:33 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation today, though risk of positive tone establishment is seen above the next resistance level at 89.30 (R1). Any penetration above this level would put in focus higher targets at 89.54 (R2) and 89.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: We suspect that the market might extend short term losses below the fresh low formed today. Easing below our support at 88.60 (S1) would suggest next targets at 88.36 (S3) and 88.10 (S3). Resistance Levels: 89.30, 89.54, 89.79 Support Levels: 88.60, 88.36, 88.10 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 16 2013 Fitch warns it might cut US rating Much to the chagrin of investors, a fresh warning from the ratings agency Fitch was issues, stating that a debt ceiling failure would likely cause a ratings review. “…With no legal authorization for net debt issuance, the Treasury would be forced to immediately eliminate the deficit – a fiscal contraction twice as great as the recently avoided ‘fiscal cliff’ – arrears on such obligations would not constitute a default event from a sovereign rating perspective, but very likely prompt a downgrade even as debt obligations continued to be met.” As such, Fitch Ratings’ expectation – along with that of the American public and general contingent of market participants – is that Congress will raise the debt ceiling, thereby leaving the risk of a U.S. sovereign default as extremely low. “Nonetheless, a, failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner will prompt a formal review of the U.S. sovereign ratings.” notes Joe Wiesenthal. Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 16 2013 Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-16 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-16 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-16 15:30 GMT | United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 11) 2013-01-16 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Beige Book Forex News 2013-01-16 05:28 GMT | GBP/USD little changed above 1.6050 2013-01-16 05:10 GMT | EUR/GBP back to flat for the week; above 0.8250 2013-01-16 04:14 GMT | AUD/JPY dips below 93.00, finds 200-hr EMA 2013-01-16 03:40 GMT | GBP/JPY dealing with weekly lows around 141.70 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ----------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.33173 | LOW: 1.32788 | BID: 1.32870 | ASK: 1.32876 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 00:18 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the 1.3318 (R1) today. In such scenario we suggest next target at 1.3345 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting last resistance level at 1.3371 (R3). Downwards scenario: If it fail to go higher, we might see further retracement development below the key support at 1.3262 (S1) with next target in focus at 1.3240 (S2). Final target locates at 1.3217 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3318, 1.3345, 1.3371 Support Levels: 1.3262, 1.3240, 1.3217 ---------------------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.60803 | LOW: 1.60513 | BID: 1.60544 | ASK: 1.60555 | CHANGE: -0.06% | TIME: 08 : 00:19 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday and we expect some volatility increase ahead. Possible strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6067 (R1). Next targets holds at 1.6079 (R2) and 1.6090 (R3) levels. Downwards scenario: Our focus now shifted to the next support level at 1.6031 (S1). Extension of losses below it might push price towards to our targets at 1.6019 (S2) and 1.6007 (S3) by forming downtrend formation. Resistance Levels: 1.6067, 1.6079, 1.6090 Support Levels: 1.6031, 1.6019, 1.6007 --------------------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 88.87 | LOW: 87.946 | BID: 88.156 | ASK: 88.162 | CHANGE: -0.69% | TIME: 08 : 00:20 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the upside and place our next resistance level at 88.28 (R1). Break here would enable next targets at 88.47 (R2) and 88.64 (R3). Downwards scenario: Significant retracement during the Asian session established negative market sentiment for today. Possible depreciation below the next support level at 87.95 (S1) would suggest next targets at 87.76 (S2) and 87.58 (S3). Resistance Levels: 88.28, 88.47, 88.64 Support Levels: 87.95, 87.76, 87.58 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 17 2013 Nowotny’s comments boost the euro The member of the ECB governing council Ewald Nowotny declared at the Euromoney press conference in Austria on Wednesday that the Eurozone is bound to contract in 2013 and that growth would return in 2014. Nowotny warned that economic activity would decrease this year, adding however that this trend should start reverting in the third semester of the year. Nevertheless, he suggested that growth would not come back until the beginning of 2014. Nowotny also commented that the euro exchange rate is “not a matter of major concern,” responding to Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Claude-Juncker’s earlier concerns over the excessive strength of the currency. He assured that EU banks depend less and less on the central bank’s funding. After a year of upheaval across peripheral Europe in 2012, the single currency managed to notch a steadfast gain against its American counterpart during the latter months. Quantifying this advance into the frame of the previous six months however, the EUR has climbed a sizable +8.0% against the USD – posing a fresh threat to the European economy just as many had assumed it was in escape velocity from its debt crisis. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-17-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-17 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monthly Report 2013-01-17 13:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-17 15:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jan) 2013-01-17 21:45 GMT | Australia. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q4) Forex News 2013-01-17 05:25 GMT | GBP/JPY holding 141.00 2013-01-17 05:16 GMT | EUR/USD in need of 1.3250-1.3310 break 2013-01-17 04:35 GMT | Top-heavy AUD/JPY looking South 2013-01-17 03:35 GMT | AUD/USD dip eyes 1.0500, threatening to continue TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.33147 | LOW: 1.32699 | BID: 1.32803 | ASK: 1.32809 | CHANGE: -0.06% | TIME: 07 : 57:55 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: After the consolidation provided market sentiment is slightly improved for the Euro. Further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.3318 (R1). Intraday targets could be found at 1.3333 (R2) and then at 1.3347 (R3). Downwards scenario: Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.3269 (S1) might change overall technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.3254 (S2) and 1.3239 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.3318, 1.3333, 1.3347 Support Levels: 1.3269, 1.3254, 1.3239 ------------------------ GBPUSD HIGH: 1.60171 | LOW: 1.59806 | BID: 1.59964 | ASK: 1.59971 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 07 : 57:56 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Possibility of the downtrend recovery is seen above the local high formed today at 1.6018 (R1). Price extension might validate next intraday targets at 1.6029 (R2) and 1.6041 (R3) in case of successful appreciation above it.Downwards scenario: Cable is consolidating after its losses. A break below the support at 1.5980 (S1) would allow bears remaining in play on the medium-term perspective. Next targets could be found at 1.5970 (S2) and 1.5959 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.6018, 1.6029, 1.6041 Support Levels: 1.5980, 1.5970, 1.5959 ----------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 88.79 | LOW: 88.133 | BID: 88.658 | ASK: 88.665 | CHANGE: 0.32% | TIME: 07 : 57:58 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the 88.79 (R1) might boost the upside pressure. Next visible resistance levels are expected at 88.91 (R2) and 89.04 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Next support level locates at 88.54 (S1), breaching of this level is significant to extend the downside pressure towards to next support 88.40 (S2). If the price manages to overcome it, our final target for today would be found at 88.26 (S3). Resistance Levels: 88.79, 88.91, 89.04 Support Levels: 88.54, 88.40, 88.26 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Best Automatic Forex Trading Platforms | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 18 2013 Fiscal negotiations hope to avoid destabilizing a fragile US economy The remainder of 2012 and early 2013 has thus far been dominated by the “fiscal cliff” negotiations in Washington and the unfinished business associated with them. The repercussions of these political decisions will have far-reaching consequences on the economy, confidence, financial markets and perhaps most importantly, the US credit rating. In the immediate sense, automatic tax increases and mandatory spending cuts set to go into effect in January, amounting to as much as 5% of GDP would – if implemented – most likely drive an already fragile US economy into recession. “By contrast, a ‘kicking the can down the road; solution or underlying mentality of extending all tax cuts and forestalling any spending cuts would only simply defer many tough decisions and would likely lead to another US credit downgrade and weaker business and consumer confidence.” warns Larry V. Adam, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. We believe that Congressional leaders will ultimately avoid these two extreme alternatives and form a compromise, however in a two- stage process. The first phase will include not extending the payroll tax cut and additional unemployment benefits into next year. The proceeds will be used as a down payment to avoid the implementation of the “sequestration” (i.e. automatic) cuts and allow the Bush-era tax cuts to be extended for an additional six months. In addition, leaders will then develop a “framework” of reduced tax deductions, possible tax increases, targeted spending cuts and entitlement reform to agree upon a more comprehensive long-term solution in a second phase of negotiations early next year. Ultimately, “assuming a fiscal cliff compromise is achieved in Washington that prudently balances growth and austerity, a recession will likely be averted.” Adam suggests. However, the US economy will grow at a tepid 2% rate over 2013 as a whole, as the “fiscal cliff,” even in its modified form, could cause a drag of approximately 1.5% to GDP. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18012013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-18 09:00 GMT | Italy. Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Nov) 2013-01-18 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-18 13:30 GMT | Switzerland. Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (Nov) 2013-01-18 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan)Preliminar Forex News 2013-01-18 04:59 GMT | USD/JPY correction lower may not be complete – Commerzbank 2013-01-18 03:43 GMT | Euro bulls ready to rock 2013-01-18 03:37 GMT | USD/CHF surrenders gains and trading at 0.9310/13 2013-01-18 01:16 GMT | EUR/JPY rallies through 119.00 after Spain and Van Rompuy TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.33913 LOW 1.33614 BID 1.33818 ASK 1.33824 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 07 : 56:11 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: A positive market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame and further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 1.3394 (R1). A break through here would suggest next target at 1.3420 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3446 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 1.3358 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3329 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.3302 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3394, 1.3420, 1.3446 Support Levels: 1.3358, 1.3329, 1.3302 ----------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.6006 LOW 1.59636 BID 1.59857 ASK 1.59867 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 07 : 56:12 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: The short- term tendency is bearish as both moving averages are pointing up however risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5989 (R1). Clearance here would open way for towards to next targets at 1.6005 (R2) and 1.6021 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low, formed today is pointing to key short-term support level at 1.5963 (S1). Decline below it would suggest next intraday target at 1.5949 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5933 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5989, 1.6005, 1.6021 Support Levels: 1.5963, 1.5949, 1.5933 ---------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 90.205 LOW 89.634 BID 90.049 ASK 90.055 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 07 : 56:13 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: The next hurdle on the upside lies at 90.21 (R1), any uptrend action above it would put in focus resistance barrier at 90.43 (R2) as the near-term target. Next on tap is final resistance at 90.64 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the 89.64 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. In such scenario our potential targets locates at 89.42 (S2) and 89.20 (S3). Resistance Levels: 90.21, 90.43, 90.64 Support Levels: 89.64, 89.42, 89.20 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 21 2013 Merkel’s CDU loses Lower Saxony election; setback to her national campaign Angela Merkel’s ruling centre-right coalition government suffered yet another defeat on this Sunday’s local elections, in what the Financial Times defines as a controversial election in the state of Lower Saxony, according to final forecasts of German television. After early speculation that the result would be a narrow win for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Social Democratic party (SDP) and its varies Green party ties managed to gather enough votes to reach a 1 seat majority. Preliminary final results for Lower Saxony: CDU 36%, SPD 32,6%, FDP 9,9%, Grüne 13,7%, Linke 3,1%. SPD & Grüne coalition gets them a 1 seat majority. Other coalitions possible, yet bottom line is that CDU loses. FT: “A victory for the SPD and Greens could give a boost to their national campaign to replace Ms Merkel’s government in September. But the chancellor’s personal popularity has given the CDU a 17-point lead over the SPD in recent opinion polls.” Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 21 2013 Forex Economic Calendar N/A | E.M.U. Eurogrup meeting 2013-01-21 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-21 08:15 GMT | Switzerland. Industrial Production (YoY) (Q3) 2013-01-21 13:30 GMT | Canada. Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov) Forex News 2013-01-21 06:38 GMT | EUR/USD steady in Asia 2013-01-21 05:54 GMT | EUR/GBP off 5-month highs; stalls below 0.8400 2013-01-21 05:24 GMT | FED to continue QE purchases thru 2014 – RBS 2013-01-21 04:02 GMT | GBP/AUD off fresh 5-month lows at 1.5060 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ---------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.33301 | LOW: 1.3302 | BID: 1.33226 | ASK: 1.33235 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08 : 30:48 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD established next resistance at 1.3334 (R1), above which is seen possibility of uptrend formation in near –term perspective. Our bullish targets appears at 1.3356 (R2) and 1.3378 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.3302 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3282 (S2) and 1.3262 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3334, 1.3356, 1.3378 Support Levels: 1.3302, 1.3282, 1.3262 ------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.58733 | LOW: 1.58446 | BID: 1.58718 | ASK: 1.58727 | CHANGE: -0.01% |TIME: 08 : 30:50 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Instrument lost downside momentum an currently moves in correction mode. Market appreciation is possible above the resistance at 1.5884 (R1). Any upside corrections above this point will then be targeting next resistances at 1.5908 (R2) and 1.5931 (R3). Downwards scenario: Short-term bears expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5846 (S1). Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5825 (S2) and 1.5805 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5884, 1.5908, 1.5931 Support Levels: 1.5846, 1.5525, 1.5805 --------------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 90.245 | LOW: 89.425 | BID: 89.591 | ASK: 89.596 | CHANGE: -0.53% | TIME: 08 : 30:55 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Currently price deviates from its high after the clear uptrend formation on the hourly chart. Buyers have their next challenge at 89.76 (R1). Break through here would suggest next initial targets at 89.98 (R2) and 90.18 (R3).Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 89.42 (S1), that buyers will try to defend. Any extension lower is being able to drive market price towards to our intraday targets at 89.24 (S2) and 89.05 (S3). Resistance Levels: 89.76, 89.98, 90.18 Support Levels: 89.42, 89.24, 89.05 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 22 2013 Jeroen Dijsselbloem, appointed new head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch Finance Minister, has been confirmed as the new president of the Eurogroup. As a peculiar note, German finance minister Mr. Schauble said Spain did not support the appointment of Dijsselbloem for head of the Eurogroup. The Eurogroup press conference started with the outgoing Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker, saying that the EU agreed with the IMF that fiscal consolidation should be continued in differentiated manner. With regards to Cyprus, Juncker noted that the Eurozone finance ministers had delayed a €17bn bailout until March this year, amid concerns of the sizeable rescue package. Juncker had a special mention for Spain too, expressing please that the banking program remains on track. While for Ireland, Juncker said that "Ireland is a living example that adjustment programs work" Meanwhile, after reports that Greece may need an additional €9.2 Bln, the bloc's finance ministers reportedly support the disbursement in further support for Greece. Eurogroup ‘noted with satisfaction’ the progress on the Greek rescue program. When the floor was given to Oliver Rehn, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, he said the eurogroup has taken stock of progress on direct bank recapitalisation. He cited some ‘complex technical issues’ remain on direct recaps. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22012013/ Forex Economic Calendar N/A | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and press conference N/A | E.M.U EcoFin Meeting 2013-01-22 15:00 | GMT United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-22 18:00 | GMT E.M.U. ECB President Draghi's Speech Forex News 2013-01-22 05:25 GMT | EUR/USD has a daily range to resolve 2013-01-22 05:15 GMT | GBP/USD bounces at Fibo 1.5820, stalls below 1.5860 2013-01-22 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY buyers faked out; 88.90 lowest after 90.00 kiss 2013-01-22 03:21 GMT | AUD/USD launched higher; cracks 1.0520/30 resistance EURUSD : HIGH 1.3358 LOW 1.33005 BID 1.33459 ASK 1.33466 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 07 : 56:12 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: We expect that instrument remain largely static in the near term perspective however resistive structure holds above the fresh high at 1.3358 (R1). Break here would suggest 1.3378 (R2) and 1.3399 (R3) as next possible targets. Downwards scenario: We would change our outlook to the negative if the price manage to depreciate below the support at 1.3323 (S1). Loss here might trigger correction formation towards to next targets at 1.3302 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.3358, 1.3378, 1.3399 Support Levels: 1.3323, 1.3302, 1.3282 GBPUSD : HIGH 1.5861 LOW 1.58256 BID 1.58594 ASK 1.58603 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 07 : 56:13 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Instrument looks oversold on the hourly chart and retracement formation looks reasonable above the next resistive barrier at 1.5864 (R1). Our higher retracement targets locates at 1.5884 (R2) and then 1.5904 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect to see further negative bias formation today if the pair manages to overcome our support level at 1.5839 (S1). Our downside targets lies at 1.5819 (S2) and 1.5798 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.5864, 1.5884, 1.5904 Support Levels: 1.5839, 1.5819, 1.5798 USDJPY : HIGH 90.112 LOW 88.89 BID 89.149 ASK 89.156 CHANGE -0.55% TIME 07 : 56:14 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the local low, provided today. Consolidation development might keep bulls in play for eventual targets at 89.49 (R2) and 89.66 (R3) if the market mange to push through key resistive barrier at 89.33 (R1). Downwards scenario: Further market decline may encounter supportive measure at 88.88 (S1). Penetration through this level would risk an extension lower targeting our next support levels at 88.71 (S2) and 88.55 (S3) later on today. Resistance Levels: 89.33, 89.49, 89.66 Support Levels: 88.88, 88.71, 88.55 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 23 2013 Eurogroup approves Robin Hood tax Eleven Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Belgium, Estonia, Greece, Slovakia and Slovenia) have been authorized to start working on a financial transactions tax (the so-called Robin Hood tax). Eurozone finance ministers have given the green light to the measure today, during the Eurogroup meeting held in Brussels. The tax is based on an idea put forward by the economist James Tobin over forty years ago and its current application is aimed at controlling banks and speculative activities, such as high frequency operations, as each agreement will be taxed. The Spanish Tesoro Público held a debt auction on Tuesday during which it sold 2.9 billion euros worth of 3- and 6- month bonds. 1.206 billion euros of 3-month bonds were auctioned at an average yield of 0.441%, compared with 1.195% seen at the previous auction. 1.578 billion euros worth of 6-month bonds, were sold at an average yield of 0.888% versus the previous 1.609%. Following the auction Spanish risk premium remained at the level of 355 points. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-23-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-23 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes 2013-01-23 14:00 GMT | United States. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-23 15:00 GMT| Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jan 23) 2013-01-23 16:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Press Conference Forex News 2013-01-23 05:45 GMT | Traders defend EUR/USD range tooth and nail 2013-01-23 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY moves below mid term ascending trend line, still above 88.00 2013-01-23 05:17 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5800 ahead of a busy day for the pair 2013-01-23 04:36 GMT | GBP/JPY in the brink of post-BoJ lows TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ---------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.33295 | LOW: 1.33046 | BID: 1.33140 | ASK: 1.33147 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08 : 02:05 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: We place our next resistance level at 1.3321 (R1). One should note here that in case of penetration above it opens the way for a return to 1.3331 (R2) and potential is seen to reach final target for today at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.3302 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our next target at 1.3292 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting 1.3282 (R3). Resistance Levels: 1.3321, 1.3331, 1.3340 Support Levels: 1.3302, 1.3292, 1.3282 --------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.5844 | LOW: 1.58236 | BID: 1.58350 | ASK: 1.58359 | CHANGE: -0.02% | TIME: 08 : 02:06 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the GBPUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance at 1.5849 (R1). Retracement targets could be found at 1.5874 (R2) and 1.5897 (R3). Downwards scenario: In near term we expect the extension of the downside move over intraday basis today. Risk of price depreciation holds below the next support level at 1.5817 (S1). Loss here might expose next targets at 1.5794 (S2) and 1.5771 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5849, 1.5874, 1.5897 Support Levels: 1.5817, 1.5794, 1.5771 ----------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 88.791 | LOW: 88.254 | BID: 88.325 | ASK: 88.332 | CHANGE: -0.43% | TIME: 08 : 02:07 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 88.69 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we expect to see retest of our intraday targets at 88.84 (R2) and 88.99 (R3) on the intraday basis. Downwards scenario: The USDJPY is poised to move lower on the medium-term perspective. Next barrier ahead is seen at 88.14 (S1).A break below this mark would suggest next intraday targets at 87.97 (R2) and 87.83 (R3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 88.69, 88.84, 88.99 Support Levels: 88.14, 87.97, 87.83 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker | Forex Practice Account | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 24 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW 2013-01-24 05:50 GMT BoE Minutes: MPC voted unanimously to keep the interest rate at 0.5% BoE Minutes from the MPC monetary policy meeting held on 9 and 10 January and released yesterdday reveal that the Committee voted unanimously in favor of keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. As far as the proposition to maintain the stock of asset purchases at £375 billion is concerned, eight MPC members voted in favor while one voted against. David Miles who voted against preferred to boost the QE program by a further £25 billion to a total of £400 billion. According to the minutes, the MPC “judged that it was not necessary at this meeting to change either Bank Rate or the size of the asset purchase programme in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term,” as the economic developments throughout December had been “modestly positive”. David Miles argued however that “an easing of monetary policy, in part by discouraging any further appreciation of sterling, could help the rebalancing process and avoid potentially lasting destruction of productive capacity and increases in unemployment.” http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-24-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-24 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 2013-01-24 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Dec) 2013-01-24 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 2013-01-24 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Forex News 2013-01-24 04:56 GMT | AUD/NZD threatens 1-month low above 1.2450 2013-01-24 04:32 GMT | EUR/JPY above 118.50 on broad Yen weakness 2013-01-24 04:03 GMT | USD/JPY reaches 89.30; 120+pips since London low 2013-01-24 00:53 GMT | EUR/USD resting above 1.3300 AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF USDCAD GBPJPY EURCHF GOLD SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ------------------ EURUSD HIGH: 1.33246 | LOW: 1.32972 | BID: 1.33166 | ASK: 1.33175 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 07 : 49:26 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Market sentiment looks neutral and upside movement is limited to resistance level at 1.3325 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3333 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to last resistance at 1.3342 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 1.3294 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 1.3289 (S2) and 1.3280 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3333, 1.3342 Support Levels: 1.3294, 1.3289, 1.3280 ----------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.58439 | LOW: 1.58124 | BID: 1.58324 | ASK: 1.58334 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 07 : 49:27 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power on the hourly timeframe. GBPUSD might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.5849 (R1). Break here would open route towards to our next resistances at 1.5872 (R2) and 1.5894 (R3) on the intraday basis. Downwards scenario: If market failed to establish positive bias, we expect retest of our key support level at 1.5813 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5791 (S2) and final one at 1.5768 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5849, 1.5872, 1.5894 Support Levels: 1.5813, 1.5791, 1.5768 ----------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 89.453 | LOW: 88.414 | BID: 89.323 | ASK: 89.328 | CHANGE: 0.8% | TIME: 07 : 49:28 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 89.47 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to our targets at 89.67 (R2) and 89.86 (R3) in case of sufficient momentum. Downwards scenario: Our focus now shifted to the next support level at 89.10 (S1). Extension of losses below it might push price towards to our targets at 88.89 (S2) and 88.69 (S3) by forming retracement formation from its initial upside penetration. Resistance Levels: 89.47, 89.67, 89.86 Support Levels: 89.10, 88.89, 88.69 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Software | The Best Forex Broker | Forex Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 25 2013 The Euro is here to stay; momentum is for higher Euro and lower Yen The emblematic investor George Soros, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davo (Switzerland) told the audience that "the euro is now here to stay," according to Bloomberg. Soros was one of the main detractor of the shared-currency back in June last year, when structural problems in Europe were escalating, peripheral yields were going through the roof, and another long list resulting on a grey outlook for the currency. However, once the ECB President Mario Draghi sent the famous message "the ECB will do whatever it takes to save the euro", only then, a change in Soros' opinions started to form, thus he shared with the audience that the immediate crisis is over. Although he stressed that "there is no time for complacency, and that austerity is not what Europe needs right now" notes Matthew Boesler from Business Insider. Soros added that the next 12 to 24 months will still be "very tense," as Germany will continue to err on the side of caution when taking bold actions needed to re-assure to investors the survival of the euro. Further comments from Soros, courtesy of Tony Connelly, Europe Editor for RTE News, Ireland's public service broadcaster: "The momentum is for the euro to rise and the Yen to fall, but it will be resisted by the US. The divergence between the Yen and euro will be aggravated, will badly affect Germany. Europe is an outlier in that it's not involved in quantitave easing." https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25012013/ Forex Economic Calendar : N/A All. | World Economic Forum - Davos 2013-01-25 09:30 GMT | United kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)Preliminar 2013-01-25 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-25 15:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forex News : 2013-01-25 06:24 GMT | USD/JPY at fresh cycle highs; Japan deflation same as it ever was 2013-01-25 05:49 GMT | EUR/USD communicating a 1.34 breakout? 2013-01-25 05:43 GMT | EUR/GBP threatening fresh 11-month highs above 0.8470 2013-01-25 05:10 GMT | GBP/JPY erases all weekly loses back above 142.50 EURUSD : HIGH 1.33791 LOW 1.33497 BID 1.33664 ASK 1.33671 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 39:31 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level lie at 1.3380 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3392 (R2). Further market increase above it would face final resistance at 1.3403 (R3).Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low formed today at 1.3349 (S1). Break here would be essential to begin the short-term bearish momentum. Initial targets could be found at 1.3339 (S2) and 1.3329 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3392, 1.3403 Support Levels: 1.3349, 1.3339, 1.3329 ---------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.57908 LOW 1.57614 BID 1.57656 ASK 1.57664 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 39:32 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Risk of price appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5796 (R1). Surpassing of this level would suggest next target at 1.5819 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 1.5841 (R3).Downwards scenario: If market holds its downside momentum, we expect attack to the next support level at 1.5756 (S1). Successful retest of this level would open way towards to initial targets at 1.5733 (S2) and 1.5710 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5796, 1.5819, 1.5841 Support Levels: 1.5756, 1.5733, 1.5710 ----------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 90.685 LOW 90.291 BID 90.519 ASK 90.526 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08 : 39:33 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly positive after the sufficient price appreciation yesterday. Fresh high formed today acts now as next resistance level at 90.68 (R1). Above here open way towards to next targets at 90.88 (R2) and then at 91.07 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the slightly short term perspective correction development looks reasonable. Below the fresh low formed today locates our next support level at 90.29 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next targets at 90.08 (S2) and potentially to 89.88 (S3). Resistance Levels: 90.68, 90.88, 91.07 Support Levels: 90.29, 90.08, 89.88 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 28 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 28 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW Euro rallies on LTRO payback The European Central Bank announced on Friday that 278 Eurozone banks would repay 137.2 billion euro borrowed in December 2011 under the 3-year Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO). The first early paybacks would take place on January 30. This is a larger amount of early repayments than the market consensus of 100 billion euros and approximately 30% of the December 2011 loans, “but it continues to leave open the question of how much will be repaid when the next €529.5bn becomes eligible for repayment on February 27th (to be announced Feb 22),” as Richard Kelly, Head of European Rates and FX Research at TD Securities points out. The expert predicts that it is “likely to be less than today’s figure, perhaps around the €75-100bn range for a total repayment of €200-225bn, slightly about our initial €150bn estimates.” ECB head Mario Draghi said today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the sovereign bond purchase program (OMT) would remain active for “as long as necessary.” He also added that the Eurozone will benefit from ECB’s accommodative policy. Draghi affirmed that the LTRO program had helped avoid a credit crunch and contributed to restoring a relative calm in the Eurozone. The ECB chief also emphasized the importance of the implementation of structural reforms and said that he expects the Eurozone to recover by the end of the year. Finally, Draghi went over the measures introduced by the ECB throughout 2012 and signalized that the challenge for this year would be to overcome the fragmentation which still differentiates financial and capital markets and causes inequality in financing. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-28-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Dec) 2013-01-28 15:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-28 21:45 GMT | Australia. Trade Balance (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-28 23:00 GMT | Australia. CB Leading Indicator (Nov) Forex News 2013-01-28 05:47 GMT | EUR/GBP above 0.8540; biggest monthly gain in 4 years 2013-01-28 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.35 the catalyst for greater gains? 2013-01-28 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5750 lows 2013-01-28 04:10 GMT | AUD/JPY limited below fresh 4-years high area around 95.00 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ---------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.34711 | LOW: 1.34502 | BID: 1.34522 | ASK: 1.34527 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 41:09 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Further upwards formation is limited to resistive measure at 1.3479 (R1). A break above it would suggest next target at 1.3492 (R2). If the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to 1.3506 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the consolidation formation after its initial uptrend development. Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3447 (S1). Clearance here might put selling pressure to the pair and enable next targets at 1.3433 (S2) and 1.3418 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3479, 1.3492, 1.3506 Support Levels: 1.3447, 1.3433, 1.3418 ---------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.5785 | LOW: 1.57534 | BID: 1.57585 | ASK: 1.57594 | CHANGE: -0.23% | TIME: 08 : 41:10 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Instrument trades under the descending channel formation, though market recovery is possible above the next resistance at 1.5786 (R1). Break here is required for further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.5808 (R2) and 1.5830 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our key support at 1.5745 (S1), we expect to see downtrend development towards to our next target at 1.5725 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 1.5704 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5786, 1.5808, 1.5830 Support Levels: 1.5745, 1.5725, 1.5704 -------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 91.255 | LOW: 90.833 | BID: 90.874 | ASK: 90.881 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 41:11 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: USDJPY formed clearly positive market sentiments but recently lost some momentum on the upside. Appreciation above the 91.26 (R1) might push the price towards to our next target at 91.48 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting resistance at 91.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market break below the next support at 90.76 (S1), we suggest next targets to be placed at 90.54 (S2) and 90.32 (S3). Resistance Levels: 91.26, 91.48, 91.70 Support Levels: 90.76, 90.54, 90.32 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Currency Converter | Forex Blog | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 29 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 29 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW Eurozone periphery nations recover up to €100bn in private funds – FT On its front cover, the Financial Times highlights the growing capital flocking back to Eurozone’s peripheral countries, with the sum amounting over €100bn of private funds since late last year. From the FT: “The scale of the net inflows, equivalent to about 9% of the economic output of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece according to calculations by ING, highlight the revival in investor confidence in Europe’s monetary union after Mario Draghi, ECB president, pledged to preserve its integrity.” However, as the Financial Times stresses, the private inflows are still little if compared to the far larger outflows from 2011/2012, a time when the Eurozone tail risk led many investors to remove huge sums of money from debt-exposed countries. The FT adds: “Total net private inflows into the periphery countries totalled €93bn in the last four months of 2012, according to ING. In contrast, the first eight months had seen €406bn flow out of the five countries, equivalent to almost 20 per cent of gross domestic product in the periphery economies. In 2011, outflows from the periphery totalled €300bn.” https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29012013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-29 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Feb) 2013-01-29 15:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Jan) 2013-01-29 21:45 GMT | Australia. Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 2013-01-29 23:50 GMT | Japan. Large Retailer’s Sales (Dec) Forex News 2013-01-29 05:50 GMT | EUR/USD, calm before next bullish storm? 2013-01-29 05:34 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5700; stalling the fall ahead of key Fibo 2013-01-29 05:04 GMT | FED to keep easing in the near term – NAB 2013-01-29 03:49 GMT | AUD/JPY pressing against fresh 4-year highs sub-95.00 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ---------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.34604 | LOW: 1.3443 | BID: 1.34470 | ASK: 1.34477 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08 : 45:44 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized and we expect neutral formation development prior further volatility increase. Intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.3463 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.3476 (R2) and 1.3489 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3441 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to bearish and price could accelerate towards to the next targets at 1.3429 (S2) and 1.3416 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3463, 1.3476, 1.3489 Support Levels: 1.3441, 1.3429, 1.3416 ----------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.57078 | LOW: 1.56853 | BID: 1.57035 | ASK: 1.57043 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08 : 45:45 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Our resistance level at 1.5715 (R1) is our reference point for the upside penetration. Break above it would suggest us about the further uptrend formation with possible targets at 1.5736 (R2) and 1.5756 (R3) in perspective. Downwards scenario: Yesterday low is acting now as key support level at 1.5673 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the rally intact and expose lower targets at 1.5654 (S2) and 1.5635 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5715, 1.5736, 1.5756 Support Levels: 1.5673, 1.5654, 1.5635 --------------- USDJPY HIGH: 91.016 | LOW: 90.401 | BID: 90.794 | ASK: 90.798 | CHANGE: -0.02% | TIME: 08 : 45:46 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues to trade within same range price as yesterday. Next on tap is resistance level at 91.03 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to the next target at 91.22 (R2). Final immediate resistance is seen at 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price might deviate to the lower end of the range in near term perspective to continue correction development. In regards of technical levels, next barrier is seen at 90.56 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our initial targets 90.36 (S2) and 90.14 (S3). Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42 Support Levels: 90.56, 90.36, 90.14 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker List | Forex Trading Account | Currency Converter | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW Fed to leave rates unchanged in January and probably for the rest of the year The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is expected to be uneventful this month, following the FOMC’s announcement of open ended QE4 in December which would be finalized only when the unemployment rate falls below 6.5% or inflation accelerates above 2.5%. The lack of action would also be justified by the fact that “the fundamental picture remains relatively unchanged,” as Richard C. Lee points out. The analyst acknowledges that “pockets of the economy have improved over the last quarter” but nevertheless he believes that “the Federal Reserve will likely remain steadfast in its current policy direction for much of 2013.” Other analysts polled for the special forecast report agree with this opinion. Their projections are quite similar, with Yohay Elam suggesting that “rates will probably remain low until 2015, and less QE isn’t due until 2014,” Albero Muñoz predicting that “it’s not very likely that we have any change in monetary policy through 2013″ and Ilian Yotov saying that “the Fed will stay the course at its January meeting and quite possibly for the rest of the year.” According to Yohay Elam the FOMC will rather concentrate on the economic outlook and it “could acknowledge the ongoing slow recovery and the lower level of political uncertainty as positive factors, but without any hint on policy change anytime soon.” Valeria Bednarik emphasizes however that if the members consider withdrawing QE gradually towards the end of the year we could expect “strong risk aversion rallies during the announcement, with dollar favored across the board.” The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement on January 30 at 19:15 GMT. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-30-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-30 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Consumer Confidence (Jan) 2013-01-30 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)Preliminar 2013-01-30 19:15 GMT | United States. US Fed Interest Rate Decision 2013-01-30 20:00 GMT | Australia. NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Forex News 2013-01-30 06:46 GMT | EUR/USD remains capped by 1.3500 2013-01-30 05:37 GMT | GBP/USD capped underneath 1.5750 2013-01-30 04:24 GMT | Yen still weakest against all others 2013-01-30 01:54 GMT | AUD/JPY cracks 95.00 major resistance TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.34951 | LOW: 1.3482 | BID: 1.34864 | ASK: 1.34869 | CHANGE: -0.04% |TIME: 08 : 50:39 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: A buying interest pushed the Euro on the local high’s yesterday and determine positive bias in near term perspective. Successful attack to the 1.3498 (R1) price level might encourage uptrend formation with possible intraday targets at 1.3511 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Clearance of next support level at 1.3477 (S1) might significantly stimulate Bearish oriented traders. Possible price devaluation would then be targeting supportive measures at 1.3464 (S2) and 1.3449 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3498, 1.3511, 1.3525 Support Levels: 1.3477, 1.3464, 1.3449 ------------------------ GBPUSD HIGH: 1.57641 | LOW: 1.57414 | BID: 1.57497 | ASK: 1.57506 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 08 : 50:40 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen above the yesterday high at 1.5774 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.5793 (R2) and 1.5813 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 1.5728 (S1) might create negative traders sentiment. We expect that our intraday target at 1.5707 (S2) and 1.5685 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case. Resistance Levels: 1.5774, 1.5793, 1.5813 Support Levels: 1.5728, 1.5707, 1.5685 ---------------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 91.031 | LOW: 90.661 | BID: 90.898 | ASK: 90.904 | CHANGE: 0.2% | TIME: 08 : 50:41 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 91.03 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 91.22 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final intraday resistive barrier at 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any penetration below our support level at 90.77 (S1) might create more scope for the USDJPY weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 90.56 (S2) and 90.36 (S3) as next possible targets in such scenario. Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42 Support Levels: 90.77, 90.56, 90.36 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted January 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 31 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW Moody’s: Greek default still a possibility A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody’s rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014. As ekathimerini notes: “In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.-FXstreet.com http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-january-31-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-01-31 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 2013-01-31 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2013-01-31 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar 2013-01-31 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Nov) Forex News 2013-01-31 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, buyers stay firmly committed 2013-01-31 05:43 GMT | AUD/NZD longs with negative swap by late 2013? – NAB 2013-01-31 04:44 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps crawling higher above 1.3050, fresh 14-month highs 2013-01-31 03:24 GMT | AUD/USD bursts through 1.04; next support at 1.0385 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.35838 | LOW: 1.35514 | BID: 1.35582 | ASK: 1.35587 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08 : 45:47 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: A local high has been set yesterday at 1.3587 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend resuming. Resistances at 1.3606 (R2) and 1.3624 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Penetration below the moving averages might maintain a negative near-term tone and overcome our support level at 1.3556 (S1). Retracement formation would then be targeting to supportive measures at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3587, 1.3606, 1.3624 Support Levels: 1.3556, 1.3536, 1.3517 ------------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.58256 | LOW: 1.57917 | BID: 1.58041 | ASK: 1.58052 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 45:48 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Evidence of further uptrend formation might be provided if the pair manages to surpass key resistive barrier at 1.5827 (R1), formed on the 25-01-2013. Execution of protective orders above that level might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5844 (R1) and 1.5862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although our technical indicators are bullish, the hourly structure might turn into negative territory if the price mange to overcome our support level at 1.5802 (S1). Next supportive measures locates at 1.5784 (S2) and 1.5767 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5827, 1.5844, 1.5862 Support Levels: 1.5802, 1.5784, 1.5767 ------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 91.151 | LOW: 90.744 | BID: 90.819 | ASK: 90.824 | CHANGE: -0.29% | TIME: 08 : 45:49 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains to be traded in neutral tone. While instrument trades below the resistance level at 91.03 (R1) market would try to form further recovery. Break here is required to attack the immediate targets at 91.22 (R2) and 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market decline is limited to the next support level at 90.73 (S1). Only clear break here would allow further market declines towards to the base of the channel. Our next intraday support levels stay at 90.55 (S2) and 90.36 (S3). Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42 Support Levels: 90.73, 90.55, 90.36 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN FX Broker Platform | Forex Account | Currency Converter | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 01 2013 Monti: EU budget must support growth and jobs creation Italian PM Mario Monti had a busy meeting agenda on Thursday, first speaking in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, then flying to Berlin where he appeared at a press conference together with Chancellor Angela Merkel. In Germany Monti commented on the next EU long-term budget saying that it shouldn’t focus solely on austerity but rather on “boosting growth, jobs and social cohesion in Europe.” He also added that Italy’s contribution, the largest of all EU countries in 2011, is disproportional relative to the country’s wealth and that budget rebates should be reassessed to be more “transparent and fair.” European officials will begin negotiations on the 2014-2020 EU budget on 7-8 February. A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody's rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014. As ekathimerini notes: "In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01022013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-02-01 09:53 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 2013-02-01 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar 2013-02-01 13:30 GMT | United States. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 2013-02-01 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forex News 2013-02-01 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY to trend higher - RBS 2013-02-01 04:57 GMT | AUD/USD threatens weekly lows around 1.0380 2013-02-01 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY skyrockets above 125, highest in 33 months 2013-02-01 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY stalling ahead of the 96 round TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.36329 LOW 1.35718 BID 1.36228 ASK 1.36232 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 05:45 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.3633 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3652 (R2) and 1.3671 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed between the 10 sma and 20 sma, where the market might face supportive measures. The breaking lower from the trend line support would open road towards to initial targets at 1.3580 (S2) and 1.3559 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3633, 1.3652, 1.3671 Support Levels: 1.3599, 1.3580, 1.3559 ----------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.5877 LOW 1.58454 BID 1.58736 ASK 1.58746 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 05:46 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: Current market installation is clearly states uptrend development on the medium-term perspective. Break above the local high at 1.5878 (R1) is required to generate new peaks and expose our intraday targets at 1.5895 (R2) and 1.5912 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to reduce long positions and that might stimulate corrective extension below the support at 1.5855 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.5837 (S2) and then 1.5817 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5878, 1.5895, 1.5912 Support Levels: 1.5855, 1.5837, 1.5817 ----------------- USDJPY : HIGH 92.263 LOW 91.605 BID 92.168 ASK 92.173 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 05:47 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: Upside rally remains in power. As for technical levels, our next resistance level locates at 92.29 (R1). If market gains momentum and manage to overcome it, we expect further price acceleration towards to next targets at 92.51 (R2) and 92.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation ahead prior volatility increase due to the many macroeconomic data releases today. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 91.86 (S1) with next expected target at 91.64 (S2). Any further decline would then be limited to final support at 91.40 (S3). Resistance Levels: 92.29, 92.51, 92.72 Support Levels: 91.86, 91.64, 91.40 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Currency Converter | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 04 2013 Spanish PM faces calls to resign; scandal to destabilize Europe’s calm waters? Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy continues to face growing criticism after the scandal which hit his party earlier last week, in which allegations were made about illegal payments received by himself and what appear to be a very large list of members from the party he presides. As it is logical on the political circus, it only took a few days until the main Socialist opposition party asked the Prime Minister to step down. As Bloomberg reports, citing opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba during a press conference on Sunday, only a day after Rajoy also made a public appearance to remain still on denial: Rubalcaba: “Rajoy should resign to make way for another prime minister who can re-establish the strength, credibility and stability that Spain needs,” “Spain needs a strong, credible, and trustworthy government.” The data unveiled by the top selling Spanish newspaper El Pais over alleged illegal donations to key political figures such as Rajoy has sparkled a very tense environment. The numbers published by El Pais show payments over an 11-year period to Mariano Rajoy worth around 25,000 euros each year from a private fund set up by Barcenas, former PP Treasure and main person accused in the scandal. From Bloomberg: “In a recession of this magnitude, the worst thing that can happen to the Spanish economy is a political scandal,” said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney SA in Madrid. “This is a theme that is going to be in the spotlight for a while and could undermine investor confidence if not addressed quickly.” http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-04-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Jan) 2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) 2013-02-04 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2013-02-04 15:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) Forex News 2013-02-04 05:33 GMT | EUR/USD – How long till loyal buyers take it to 1.38/1.40? 2013-02-04 04:12 GMT | AUD/JPY stalls ahead of fresh 4-year highs below 97.00 2013-02-04 02:53 GMT | EUR/AUD retreats from 1.3117 session highs 2013-02-04 01:35 GMT | GBP/NZD prints historic lows below 1.8550 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ----------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.36596 | LOW: 1.36185 | BID: 1.36232 | ASK: 1.36239 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08 : 47:36 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD bounced back after the last week appreciation however stabilization above the next resistance level at 1.3641 (R1) might provide market with sufficient bullish power to attack next targets at 1.3658 (R2) and 1.3676 (R3). Downwards scenario: At the moment pair is trading on the negative territory and break through support level at 1.3615 (S1) is likely scenario for today en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.3597 (S2) and 1.3580 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3641, 1.3658, 1.3676 Support Levels: 1.3615, 1.3597, 1.3580 --------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.57101 | LOW: 1.56905 | BID: 1.56979 | ASK: 1.56990 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08 : 47:37 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe but recently moved in sideways mode. Above the resistance level at 1.5725 (R1) is possible retracement development. Violation here might expose next intraday targets at 1.5742 (R2) and 1.5758 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday’s losses are pointing to a negative market sentiment. Breach of our key support level at 1.5686 (S1) might trigger further downside expansion towards to our next targets at 1.5670 (S2) and 1.5654 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5725, 1.5742, 1.5758 Support Levels: 1.5686, 1.5670, 1.5654 ----------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 92.9 | LOW: 92.491 | BID: 92.609 | ASK: 92.614 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08 : 47:38 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained upside rally and currently remains stable above the 20 SMA. Further price appreciation is limited to the next resistance level at 92.82 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets above the local peak at 92.98 (R2) and higher one at 93.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the 20 SMA and clearance of our next support level at 92.48 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery formation, targeting 92.29 (R2) and 92.10 (R3). Resistance Levels: 92.82, 92.98, 93.13 Support Levels: 92.48, 92.29, 92.10 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 05 2013 Merkel offers support to Spanish government under fire Spanish President Mariano Rajoy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a joint press conference on Monday in Berlin, during which the Chancellor assured she had not lost confidence in the governing Spanish People’s Party, which currently faces corruption allegations. “We have a relation of full trust in the Spanish government... I have the impression that the whole Spanish government is working to drive down unemployment, to push through structural reforms,” the Chancellor said. Mariano Rajoy assured that his government is stable and that the People’s Party might take legal action against those who leaked documents which allegedly prove that the party received undeclared money. Later the Spanish president went on to describe the reforms already implemented in order to halt the debt crisis and said that new measures, aimed at boosting growth, will be announced shortly. Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the reforms will soon “bear fruit” and promised cooperation on bringing down youth unemployment in Spain by facilitating internships and apprenticeships in Germany for young Spaniards. London session ahead will bring UK Services PMI data at 09:30 GMT, expected to come slightly lower than 50, level that indicates economic expansion, at 49.8, for second month in a row, for first time since early 2011. GBP is one of strongest currency among majors for last trading hours, even stronger than Yen or CAD, the two other strongest majors for last hours. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05022013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-02-05 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Services PMI (Jan) 2013-02-05 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Jan) 2013-02-05 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 2013-02-05 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forex News 2013-02-05 05:59 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5750 ahead of London open 2013-02-05 05:55 GMT | Time for a meaningful correction in EUR/USD? 2013-02-05 05:02 GMT | AUD/NZD capped below 1.24 following RBA 2013-02-05 04:28 GMT | EUR/AUD above 1.2950 on RBA rates unch TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.35202 LOW 1.34812 BID 1.34845 ASK 1.34851 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 07 : 59:02 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Discounted value of the EURUSD might face next immediate resistive barrier at 1.3510 (R1). Any price appreciation above it would suggest next resistances at 1.3531 (R2) and 1.3552 (S3) as recovery targets. Downwards scenario: Instrument maintained clear downtrend formation by trading on the negative territory. Key resistive bastion lie at 1.3476 (S1). Weakening below it would enable expected targets at 1.3457 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3510, 1.3531, 1.3552 Support Levels: 1.3476, 1.3457, 1.3437 --------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.57664 LOW 1.57438 BID 1.57576 ASK 1.57586 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 07 : 59:03 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Hourly chart frame corrective bounce faces good resistance barrier at 1.5771 (R1) yesterday. Appreciation above it might likely push the pair toward to next targets, located at 1.5782 (R2) and 1.5793 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we can observe that medium-term bias remains negative. Depreciation below the support level at 1.5743 (S1) would open route towards to initial targets at 1.5731 (S2) and 1.5719 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.5771, 1.5782, 1.5793 Support Levels: 1.5743, 1.5731, 1.5719 -------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 92.56 LOW 91.978 BID 92.365 ASK 92.371 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 07 : 59:05 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the correction mode after the initial uptrend development. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 92.58 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 92.80 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next attractive level for the downside expansion locates at 92.18 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to initial targets at 91.97 (S2) and 91.75 (S3). Resistance Levels: 92.58, 92.80, 93.03 Support Levels: 92.18, 91.97, 91.75 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Account | Forex Software | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 06 2013 Hollande: The Eurozone crisis is now largely behind us Eurozone political group leaders, together with French President François Hollande and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso gathered at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday to discuss the future of the European Union and the Eurozone, the economic crisis and the EU budget for 2014 to 2020. President Hollande spoke about the necessity of creating an exchange rate policy for the Eurozone in order to prevent “irrational movements” of the single currency. He warned that otherwise the euro area might be “subjected to an exchange rate that does not match the true state of its economy.” Hollande also said that the Eurozone debt crisis has been largely overcome, but that nevertheless the Member States should do their utmost to bring down the excessively elevated unemployment in the area. He also pointed out the dangers connected with too much austerity: “The threat we face now is no longer the mistrust of the markets but that of the people.” For the London session ahead there will only be UK Halifax HPI data at 08:00 GMT before BoE meeting tomorrow, and crude oil inventories at 15:30 GMT coming from the US. Since year started, Cable has lost -3.5% in value against the USD. Since mid January, Pound is weakest currency among majors, only above the Yen, while against Euro, EUR/GBP is back again to recent highs area, last at 0.8674, near 15-month highs level. http://blog.fxcc.com/12813/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-02-06 11:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec) 2013-02-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan) 2013-02-06 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. NZ Unemployment Rate (Q4) 2013-02-06 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Dec) Forex News 2013-02-06 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD quiet above fresh 5-month lows 1.5630 2013-02-06 03:48 GMT | EUR/USD inside its thin trading range 1.3572/96 2013-02-06 02:27 GMT | USD/JPY has a final capitulation feel to it now – RBS 2013-02-06 01:27 GMT | AUD/NZD prints fresh 29-month lows on poor Aus retail sales data TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.35959 | LOW: 1.35609 | BID: 1.35631 | ASK: 1.35637 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 03:04 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: An hourly chart retracement development continues to pressure the pair towards to next resistance level at 1.3599 (R1). Break above it is required to open way towards to next targets at 1.3619 (R2) and 1.3638 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3555 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3) in case of positive retest here. Resistance Levels: 1.3599, 1.3619, 1.3638 Support Levels: 1.3555, 1.3536, 1.3517 -------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.56656 | LOW: 1.56502 | BID: 1.56525 | ASK: 1.56536 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08 : 03:05 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Down Trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear downtrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Possibility of correction is seen above the high of the day at 1.5668 (R1). Only clearance here would open route towards to next recovery targets at 1.5683 (R2) and 1.5699 (R3). Downwards scenario: It is undeniable that further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the next support level at 1.5642 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5627 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5611 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5668, 1.5683, 1.5699 Support Levels: 1.5642, 1.5627, 1.5611 ------------------------ USDJPY HIGH: 94.055 | LOW: 93.455 | BID: 93.783 | ASK: 93.788 | CHANGE: 0.16% | TIME: 08 : 03:06 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up Trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive strength yesterday and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 94.06 (R1) might provide a catalyst for profit taking And expose intraday targets 94.35 (R2) and 94.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 93.54 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 93.24 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 92.95 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.35, 94.63 Support Levels: 93.54, 93.24, 92.95 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Demo Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 07 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW Euro bloc faces acute challenges from rival central banks Much is at stake in the Eurozone should the fabled ‘currency war’ be ultimately waged as the price will be paid in both growth and jobs amidst fresh tensions about the future of the bloc itself. Few would doubt the euro area has been routed in the latest monetary battles between countries printing reserves and depressing home currencies in part to retain an acute trade advantage in a world sapped of growth. In Asia, Japan’s plan to aggressively weaken the yen has been the proverbial warning salvo, however that merely counters the open-ended bond buying and dollar creation by the U.S. Federal Reserve, sterling printing in Britain or even Swiss intervention to cap the franc. It leaves the European Central Bank (ECB) as the last remaining constituent of the “Big Four” reserve currencies still unable or unwilling to generate new cash and sequester its exchange rate over time. This point was underlined last month by early paybacks on what had been the ECB’s proxy printing plan of cheap long-term loans to euro banks (or LTROs) – repayments, which have lead to an untimely shrinkage of the ECB balance sheet as its economy shrinks, creeping short-term interest rates and a rising euro. In just three short months, the euro has now soared a staggering +20% against Japan’s yen, +8% on sterling and +7% on the US dollar – the latter compounding gains against a host of dollar-pegged, emerging currencies. Last month, ECB chief Mario Draghi pointed out that the euro’s trade-weighted index (TWI) has been better behaved and is still down more than +10% from its 2009 peaks. However, this euro index too has jumped +6% since November and is up almost +9% since Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech in July consequently defused the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-07-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar 2013-02-07 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts 2013-02-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision 2013-02-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference 2013-02-07 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Jan) Forex News 2013-02-07 05:34 GMT | Will Draghi encourage EUR/USD run to 1.40? 2013-02-07 05:16 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5630 ahead a busy day 2013-02-07 02:35 GMT | AUD/JPY unchanged around 96.40 2013-02-07 01:10 GMT | Aussie heaviness as worrying as Aus full-time jobs lost TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.35313 | LOW: 1.35033 | BID: 1.35293 | ASK: 1.35299 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08 : 06:41 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: We expect busy session ahead due to the many important macroeconomic data releases. Upwards extension above the resistance at 1.3545 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 1.3564 (R2) and 1.3584 (R3). Downwards scenario: A failure to clear next resistance barrier would open the way towards the initial support level at 1.3517 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3497 (S2) and 1.3478 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.3545, 1.3564, 1.3584 Support Levels: 1.3517, 1.3497, 1.3478 ------------------ GBPUSD HIGH: 1.56705 | LOW: 1.56452 | BID: 1.56687 | ASK: 1.56696 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08 : 06:42 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break required to spark stronger upside action. Our next resistance level is placed at 1.5679 (R1). Break above it would suggest our next initial targets at 1.5699 (R2) and 1.5718 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome key support level at 1.5644 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our targets at 1.5625 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3) on the way. Resistance Levels: 1.5679, 1.5699, 1.5718 Support Levels: 1.5644, 1.5625, 1.5606 ---------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 93.648 | LOW: 93.294 | BID: 93.603 | ASK: 93.607 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 06:43 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up Trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low Upwards scenario: Price action is looking for topside momentum on the medium-term perspective to resume initial upwards formation. Yesterday high offers a key resistive bastion at 94.06 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to initial targets at 94.37 (R2) and 94.67 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if USDJPY depreciates below the next support level at 93.24 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 92.95 (S2) and then aim at 92.64 (S3) for the possible corrective action ahead. Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.37, 94.67 Support Levels: 93.24, 92.95, 92.64 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013 ECB's Draghi sees the Eurozone recovering in second half of the year The ECB Governing Council decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at their December monetary policy meeting. Speaking at the press conference following the meeting ECB head Mario Draghi commented on the considerations underlying the decision. The president suggested that inflation should fall below 2% in the coming months and assured that inflationary pressures should remain contained. He said that economic growth would remain weak in the “early part” of 2013 and recover very gradually, along with the improving situation on financial markets. The recovery would be supported by the ECB's accomodative monetary policy stance, better external demand and easier financial market conditions. Mario Draghi commented on the the liquidity situation of EU banks, which recently repaid €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion obtained through LTROs, which reflects the improvement in financial market confidence. He nevertheless urged EU officials to carry on with the reduction of “both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures” which should boost confidence further. When asked about the recent appreciation of the shared currency and whether it could hurt recovery, the ECB chief answered that it could be an indication that confidence in the euro begun improving. He added that the central bank would continue to closely monitor money market developments. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08022013/ 2013-02-08 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Dec) 2013-02-08 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan) 2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | United States. US Trade Balance (Dec) 2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2013-02-08 05:17 GMT | Where have all EUR/USD bulls gone? 2013-02-08 04:44 GMT | Long-running EUR/CHF uptrend unlikely - HSBC 2013-02-08 03:25 GMT | Kiwi at 0.87 by year end - BNZ 2013-02-08 01:49 GMT | GBP/JPY off fresh 3-year highs below 148.00 --------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.34161 LOW 1.33817 BID 1.33980 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 01:14 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3420 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3447 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3474 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3371 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3346 (S2) and 1.3319 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.3420, 1.3447, 1.3474 Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3346, 1.3319 ----------------------- GBPUSD HIGH 1.57372 LOW 1.57046 BID 1.57234 ASK 1.57246 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 01:15 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5738 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5754 (R2) and 1.5770 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.5715 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5699 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5738, 1.5754, 1.5770 Support Levels: 1.5715, 1.5699, 1.5681 --------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 93.733 LOW 93.195 BID 93.239 ASK 93.244 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:16 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 93.58 (R1). Next interim target holds at 93.81 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 94.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 93.17 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. As a result our supportive meant at 92.93 (S2) and 92.69 (S3) might be triggered. Resistance Levels: 93.58, 93.81, 94.05 Support Levels: 93.17, 92.93, 92.69 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 11 2013 EU leaders reach 7-year budget deal After more than 24 hours of negotiations, European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, announced Friday that the 27 members of the European Union have reached agreement on the EU budget framework for the next seven years. Van Rompuy’s plan proposed to limit new spending commitments by Brussels to €960 billion, versus the €1.03 trillion originally sought by the European Commission and €12 less than the previous proposal. This way, the 2014-2020 budget agreement involves a €34 billion cut from current budget cycle, set at €994 billion. Analysts interpreted the agreement as a victory for the United Kingdom and net contributors to the EU budget. It will be the first net reduction to the EU’s long-term budget in the bloc’s history, representing a decrease of around 3%on the last budget and shaving spending in areas from infrastructure to administration and scientific research. Even though the deal is done, the EU budget is not official yet, not until the European Parliament gives its approval, but leading legislators have already expressed opposition. The cuts agreed on Friday fell mainly on spending for cross-border transportation schemes, energy and telecommunications networks as well as the EU officials’ salaries. On the other hand, spending on rural development has been increased by €1.5 billion. While Rajoy welcomed the deal and said it is beneficial for Spain, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said budget deal combines growth and consolidation and it is a good sign for investors. She said all 27 members backed budget agreement. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-11-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar N/A | E.M.U. Eurogroup Meetings 2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks 2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speech 2013-02-11 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) Forex News 2013-02-11 05:47 GMT| EUR/USD faces calls for 1.3250; worst week since late June 2012 2013-02-11 05:08 GMT | GBP/USD frozen around 1.5800 handle 2013-02-11 04:26 GMT | AUD/USD dives under 1.0300 2013-02-11 03:35 GMT | GBP/JPY holding barely above 146.00 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.33909 | LOW: 1.33634 | BID: 1.33859 | ASK: 1.33863 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 09 : 43:47 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently and turned retail trader’s sentiment to the positive side. Further market rise would then be targeting resistance levels at 1.3408 (R1), 1.3436 (R2) and last one at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation from initial downside extension however. Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3351 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our initial targets 1.3324 (S2) and 1.3298 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3408, 1.3436, 1.3462 Support Levels: 1.3351, 1.3324, 1.3298 ------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.58097 | LOW: 1.57771 | BID: 1.57790 | ASK: 1.57799 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 09 : 43:48 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5821 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive marks at 1.5836 (R2) and 1.5851 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our reference point locates at 1.5791 (S1), decrease below it might enable bearish pressure, targeting 1.5777 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to last support level at 1.5762 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5821, 1.5836, 1.5851 Support Levels: 1.5791, 1.5777, 1.5762 --------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 92.743 | LOW: 92.357 | BID: 92.600 | ASK: 92.607 | CHANGE: -0.07% | TIME: 09 : 43:49 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 92.74 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 92.95 (R2) and then target at 93.17 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: In favor of bearish market participants market tone remains negative on the medium-term perspective. Our next support level aligns at 92.35 (S1). Price regress below it might encounter downside rally and expose our initial targets at 92.12 (R2) and 91.90 (R3). Resistance Levels: 92.74, 92.95, 93.17 Support Levels: 92.35, 92.12, 91.90 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted February 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 12 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 12 2013 S&P keeps Ireland rating at BBB+; Outlook revised up to stable from negative The Standard and Poor’s rating services has maintained its Ireland rating at BBB+ but has revised upward the Irish outlook from negative to stable on the back of promissory notes exchange. Earlier on the day, BUBA’s J.Weidmann took ECB president Mario Draghi’s relay and is ‘verbally’ pushing the cross to the proximity of 1.3430 in the European evening. Weidmann commented that the euro would not be overvalued at current levels, and he emphasized than a lower exchange rate could derail in higher inflation. For the London session ahead focus will be centered at UK CPI figures at 09:30 GMT, along with tentative BoE inflation letter, once RICS house price balance data was published early in Asia today showing a decline of -4%, slightly worse than previous at -1%, but still in an uptrend since late 2010. FTSE futures are pointing for a lower open, while Hong-Kong, Singapore and mainland China kept on closed over holidays. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-12-2013/ Forex Economic Calendar N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter 2013-02-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2013-02-12 15:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech 2013-02-12 19:00 GMT | United States. Monthly Budget Statement (Jan) Forex News 2013-02-12 05:46 GMT | USD/JPY on fresh 2.5 year high; North Korea conducts nuclear test 2013-02-12 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD slips to previous 5-month lows area, below 1.5650 2013-02-12 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.3250 or 1.35 firm candidates on next move 2013-02-12 05:08 GMT | Moody’s cuts outlook on advanced economies TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ------------------- EURUSD HIGH: 1.34114 | LOW: 1.33779 | BID: 1.33860 | ASK: 1.33869 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 45:23 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: The high of the today offer initial resistance level at 1.3411 (R1). Penetration above that level might trigger recovery action and expose our resistive mean at 1.3436 (R2) en route towards to final target at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure would stay in power while price is quoted below the both moving averages. Clearance of our next support at 1.3361 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.3334 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3) in perspective. Resistance Levels: 1.3411, 1.3436, 1.3462 Support Levels: 1.3361, 1.3334, 1.3307 ---------------------- GBPUSD HIGH: 1.56682 | LOW: 1.56415 | BID: 1.56587 | ASK: 1.56596 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 45:24 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down TREND CONDITION: Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High Upwards scenario: Cable is consolidating after the losses provided yesterday. A break above the resistance at 1.5670 (R1) would allow to establish some pull pack formation. Our upside targets today locates at 1.5687 (R2) and 1.5704 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenging supportive barrier locates at 1.5640 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for stronger downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.5623 (S2) and 1.5605 (R3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.5670, 1.5687, 1.5704 Support Levels: 1.5640, 1.5623, 1.5605 ------------------- USDJPY HIGH: 94.375 | LOW: 93.868 | BID: 93.979 | ASK: 93.986 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 08 : 45:25 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium Upwards scenario: Local high, formed yesterday is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. However even surpass of our next resistance at 94.21 (R1) might be sufficient to establish positive bias, targeting 94.46 (R2) and 94.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 93.75 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.51 (S2) and 93.26 (S3) Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.46, 94.72 Support Levels: 93.75, 93.51, 93.26 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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