Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 1.2499 lows now in sight

 

The EUR/USD pair broke lower after Wednesday's FOMC and continued falling today. It looks like the dominant longer-term down-trend is resuming and the pair will continue falling towards the 1.2499 lows.

 

Nevertheless because we are still broadly in a sideways consolidation I am cautious about stipulating entry-points and targets, and ideally I would want to see a break below the 1.2499 lows, for confirmation of further down-side, to a target at the S1 monthly pivot situated at 1.2411 – although bear in mind that tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of the month so the pivots will

re-position on Monday.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: still rising in Elliot 5th wave

 

The USD/JPY pair has been rising in a channel, in what is probably a 5th wave of the wave sequence which began at the beginning of July. This wave will probably reach the 110.08 highs.

 

The MACD supports this after falling below the zero-line with the formation of wave 4 which bottomed on the 15th and now probably moving back above the line and making a lower high with 5 – as expected.

 

There is substantial event risk on the horizon today with U.S GDP which could lead to a stronger yen if it disappoints. Then during the Asian session there is the BOJ rate meeting.

 

Nevertheless given the strong bullish technicals a possible recommendation to go long if the 109.29 highs are broken could lead to the final move up to the 110.08 historic highs.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/USDJPY30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pair moving lower towards 1.2499 lows

 

Not much change in my analysis of EUR/USD: mainly I see it not completing its move down to the 1.2499 lows. The broader trend is bearish and we are now moving in line with that broader trend.

 

Nevertheless because we are still broadly in a sideways consolidation I'd be cautious about shorting the pair, and if I did I would maintain strict money management rules on any such short trades. One possibility would be to sell at a break of the day's lows at 1.2540, targeting the 1.2499 lows - or a few points above.

 

Ideally I would want to see a break below the 1.2499 lows to really confirm more downside, however, such a break would probably target the S1 monthly pivot situated at 1.2411. Although pivots will change on Monday for the new month of November, the new monthly S1 pivot will probably be at the same level as October's.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD31.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend bearish; inverted H&S doubtful

 

The inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at the lows failed after the hawkish FOMC and the exchange rate started moving down instead of up. A move below yesterday's (30th Oct) 1.5950 lows would probably confirm a complete failure of the reversal pattern and probably a resumption of the broader down-trend, with a target at the 1.5873 15th Oct lows.

 

Given the strength of the support at the 1.5950 lows and the fact there is also an old down trend-line providing yet more support at the same level, I would ideally want to see a clearance, including a 20-pip margin, for confirmation of more downside, so a move below the 1.5930 level would be the ideal entry point for taking a position lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/GBPUSD31.png

Edited October 31, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: key lows breached; more downside probable

 

The EUR/USD pair is continuing its v.short-term bearish trend lower. It has fallen below the key 1.2499 lows and then recovered this morning. It is currently pulling back into the 1.2499 level, with former support now resisting. It will probably roll-over and resume its descent in line with the broader down-trend.

 

The next major support level is the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2420 which is not far below Friday's lows. The problem is finding an adequate entry point: entering now is risky since the pair could continue correcting higher, especially given the bullish convergence between price and weak momentum. On the other hand confirmation from a break below the 1.2438 lows would leave little (18 pips) to gain before reaching 1.2420.

 

A clear break below the S1 at 1.2420, signaled by a move of 20-pips (1.2400) might provide the necessary confirmation, however then the problem is that the break level is a round number – 1.2400, making it itself formidable support. Therefore, I would want to see a 20 pip clearance below 1.2400 - so 1.2380 -for confirmation, with the next target then at the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2310.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Nov03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: bull-trend extending rapidly

 

The pair has risen so rapidly after gaping up this morning that it has almost reached the R1 monthly pivot at 113.86 – in fact the exchange rate has got as far as 113.71. The strong trend higher is expected to continue.

 

It will probably reach the R1 pivot eventually. For a further signal higher, however, the pivot needs to be cleared by a 20 point margin, to give sufficient bullish confirmation. This might give an entry price at 114.06, however, this is close to historic 2007 highs at 114.09, which may also provide some resistance. Therefore ideally I'd like to see the 114.09s cleared by a further 20 point margin (114.29) for confirmation of the next leg higher in the pair, targeting round number resistance at 115.00.

 

Data from the U.S this afternoon in the form of ISM Manufacturing may provide the impetus for more upside.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY03b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: a-b-c correction completing; down-side potential

 

EUR/USD has pulled back forming a 3 wave corrective a-b-c pattern on the 4hr chart. This indicates that it will probably break down eventually, returning to the 1.2438 lows. A clear break below 1.2490 would probably confirm the start of such a move. Another possible target to the downside is the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2420.

 

More conservative traders might wish to wait until a clear break below the S1 at 1.2420 and then also round number support at 1.2400, before selling. As I recommended yesterday, in such a situation a break below the 1.2380 level would probably confirm a deeper penetration down to pivot support at 1.2310.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: rangebound; upside bias

 

Cable continues to consolidate in sideways range after correcting back a 50% Fibonacci of the strong rally in the first part of 2014.

 

The pair had formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at the lows, but this failed after the FOMC, nevertheless, there has been a lack of follow-through to the downside due to overall positive outlook from the U.K.

 

Ideally I would want to see a breakout from the current range before initiating another trade.

 

A break above the neckline of the inverted H&S at 1.6226 would confirm a move up to 1.6279, where the R2 monthly pivot is situated.

 

The bullish outlook is supported by a possible Elliot wave analysis which labels the current move down as an Elliot wave 4 – with 5 about to reverse and climb back up for a retouch the 1.7178 highs. Fundamentally speaking, U.K monetary policy remains relatively hawkish, with two stubborn dissenters on the MPC.

 

Alternatively a break below the 1.5874 lows would cement a continuation of the down-trend to an initial target at 1.5798.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend resuming

 

The pair has probably completed an a-b-c correction and is resuming the v.short-term down-trend.

It is likely to continue lower, with a breach of the 1.2490 level providing confirmation of more downside to the 1.2438 lows.

 

More cautious traders might wish to wait for stronger confirmation from a break below key support lying in the lower 1.24s, with a break below the 1.2380 level indicating a possible continuation down to support from the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2310.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend extending

 

USD/JPY continues to rise and will probably extend even further as the strong up-trend unfolds. The exchange rate has risen above the R1 monthly pivot at 114.09 in another sign of strength.

 

A gap formed on Friday after the BOJ rate meeting was probably a measuring gap, which means it was at the centre of a move which started on October 15th at 105.19. This gives an eventual target – using the gap to calculate - at 119.65!

 

Whilst this is quite far away, a closer target would be at round-number resistance at 115.00, and then 105.86 where the R2 pivot is located. For those wishing to trade, confirmation might come from a break above the current day's highs at 114.58.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend intact; ECB on tap

 

The pair was in an a-b-c correction higher, visible on the 4-hr chart, but this ended and the exchange rate resumed down-trend as forecast. It didn't quite reach the target at 1.2438 before rotating higher again. Given the dominant down-trend, however, it will probably resume its move lower, and is expected to eventually reach the 1.2438 lows. Today is the ECB rate meeting so much voaltility is expected.

 

Looking at the move down from the end of the a-b-c, it as if an Elliot wave is unfolding, with wave 3 ending at the 1.2457 lows, wave 4 pulling back up and 5 currently unfolding lower again, with expectations that it will reach at least to the end of 3. One possible short-term trade might be entering at 1.2479 and targeting 1.2457.

 

What I said in my last analysis still stands: “more cautious traders might wish to wait for stronger confirmation from a break below key support,” with a break below the 1.2380 indicating a possible continuation down to support from the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2310.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: outlook mixed; v.short-term bearish

 

Cable broke momentarily below the key 1.5874 lows but then bounced back up almost immediately.

The v.short-term trend is probably down, given the more-than two lower lows and two lower highs on the 4-hr chart. The trend has also been down ever since the exchange rate rolled over at the July 15 highs.

 

Nevertheless on longer time-frames the outlook is more bullish for the pair, as it has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally at the start of the year. From an Elliot Wave perspective wave 3 may have peaked at the July highs, wave 4 could be completing and wave 5 may be about to start higher.

 

The conflict between long and short-term trend analysis makes it a risky exchange rate to trade, however, I'm following the direction of the v.short-term trend until it changes. I think a breach below the 1.5867 lows would be a critical sign and could lead to a sell-off down to round number support at 1.5800.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: channeling lower

 

The aussie has broken down below the key 0.8642 lows, continuing the short-term trend lower. It reached new lows at 0.8564 yesterday before bouncing. We can see on the chart that the pair has formed a neat bearish channel since rolling over after the 0.8910 highs and this will probably continue lower. A break below the 0.8564 lows would confirm such a move down to a target at the S3 monthly pivot at 0.8507.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/AUDUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuing lower; NFPs today

 

With Non-Farm Payrolls on the horizon today has the potential to be volatile.

 

Since the May highs the trend has been down and and it is likely to continue. Although MACD is converging bullishly with price OBV is not confirming.

 

The next major target level to the downside is the S2 monthly pivot situated at 1.2310. For traders keen to take a risk, a move below today's 1.2363 lows would probably signal a continuation down to 1.2310.

 

A really strong move lower could even breach the pivot – with a move below 1.2290, probably indicating a further continuation down to support from the long-term trend-line at 1.2220.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: channel line obstructing; NFP's on tap

 

The USD/JPY has risen up to the upper border of the channel at 115.50. There is a possibility that it might pull-back, however, there are no signs yet of a reversal so the up-trend remains intact: indeed momentum and volume are both rising in line with price, confirming the trend.

 

A major consideration is the release of Non-Farm Payrolls later today, with the potential for much volatility, that could override technical considerations, and push the pair even higher.

 

The R2 monthly pivot at 105.86 is the next target higher for the pair. If the exchange rate clears the pivot by 20-points – at 116.06 it would probably confirm another leg up to the next target at historic support and resistance at 117.60.

 

The measuring gap on the 15th also indicates a potential move all the way to 119.65 eventually!

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: conflicting signs; down-trend under threat

 

Friday's post-NFP rebound is still going higher. It posted a piercing line bullish reversal candlestick pattern, and, combined with the acute converging with MACD, is indicating the possibility of a reversal of the down-trend, although OBV is not converging – if it were it would add bullishness to the chart.

 

Nevertheless, despite these signs of a potential reversal on the horizon, the peaks and troughs have not yet reversed on the 4-hr chart, which I use to determine the v.short-trend, so I can not say for sure that the trend has reversed: instead the trend is in doubt, with no clear direction.

 

The advise is to be to stand aside until the situation clarifies.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possible wedge forming but down-trend still intact

 

Cable has pulled-back after reaching news lows. There is a triple convergence with MACD which indicates the potential for a recovery, but OBV is not agreeing, lessening the strength of the bullish reversal sign.

 

The choppy activity since the September 10 lows looks like a possible falling wedge pattern providing a further clue the pair may be reversing. The pattern has finished the minimum 5 waves for completion. With these sorts of consolidations there is a possibility of sudden strong breakout higher.

 

Nevertheless, despite some bullish signs the actual trend remains bearish on 4-hr, daily and weekly time-frames so it will still probably push lower. Critically there has also been a breach below the upper border-line of the multi-year triangle.

 

Ideally for a continuation lower I would want to see a clear break below the 2nd November lows and the S2 pivot at 1.5788 and 1.5798 respectively. A move below 1.5778 would clear these support levels and lead to a probable sell-off down to round-number support at 1.5700.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: trend in doubt; possible double bottom

 

The aussie has rebounded after making new lows at 0.8539. There is a possibility that it formed a double bottom reversal pattern and broken higher. The pattern is not clear enough for me to have much confidence in it, but if it is a double bottom it may have higher to go to reach the target at the 100% extrapolation, at 0.8713.

 

Although the rebound has been swift and strong and has broken above a down-trend-line, it has not reversed the trend yet. Currently I see the trend as in doubt and the bets course of action is probably to stand aside from the market temporarily until things become clearer.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/AUDUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend intact but overbought

 

Progressively higher peaks and troughs continue to characterize price action for this pair as the up-trend extends ever higher. We have already had a break above the key R2 monthly pivot at 115.60 and now the pair will probably rise to the next target at historic support and resistance at 117.60.

 

Traders eager to enter the market could buy at the break of the 116.09 highs and trade up to the aforementioned target, however, RSI is showing that the pair is overbought making this is a risky trade. I would rather wait until RSI had moved back out of the overbought zone, and under 70, before re-entering the market on the long side.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY13.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: symmetrical triangle

 

The EUR/USD pair is probably forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hr chart, which is now completing its final e-wave.

 

Given the trend before the triangle formed was down the probabilities favour a breakdown, however, symmetrical triangles can breakout in either direction so an upside breakout is also possible.

 

A break below the 1.2393 b-wave lows would probably confirm a breakout to a target at 1.2325, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the pattern and the minimum expectation.

 

Alternatively a break above the 1.2509 a-wave highs would probably indicate an upside break to a target at 1.2585.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD13.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle still forming

 

The pair is still coiling in a triangle which is visible on the 4hr chart and has completed the minimum number of required waves. Although there has been a temporary break below the

lower border of the triangle it was not enough to signal a breakout.

 

The Chaikin Money Flow oscillator in the lower pane of the chart is useful for predicting which way sideways markets are going to break and on this chart it has an upside bias, indicating the possibility of an upside breakout.

 

Despite the trend prior to the triangle being bearish symmetrical triangles can breakout in either direction so an upside break is also quite possible, with a move above the 1.2509 a-wave highs indicating a probable move to a target at 1.2585.

 

Alternatively a break below the 1.2393 b-wave lows would probably confirm a breakout to a target at 1.2325, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the pattern, and the minimum price expectation.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD14b.png

Edited November 14, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend in play

 

Cable may be forming a wedge-like pattern which is completing its C wave and there is a possibility that it will reverse and there could be a recovery higher, however, the exchange rate has broken below the lower border of the wedge just recently and is vulnerable to a stronger breakdown.

 

The overall trend is bearish: the exchange rate having moved below the 61.8% major fib line from the 2013 rally as well as the upper border-line of the major multi-year triangle.

 

Therefore I see a real chance of the short-term down-trend continuing lower, and a breach of the current 1.5653 lows signalling yet further downside. A conservative initial target would be at 1.5600, at round number support, however, a more ambitious trade would be to target the S3 monthly pivot at 1.5557.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: currently falling within range

 

EUR/USD was forming a symmetrical triangle pattern which broke higher eventually. It moved up to the late 1.2570s, where it almost hit the target at 1.2584 but then promptly formed a shooting star candlestick (on the 4-hr chart) and has now started falling lower again after the announcement that the ECB will begin buying ABSs this week.

 

The pair has reached close to support from the nexus of triangle border-lines at 1.2475 and this could provide the platform for a recovery move higher. The very short-term trend is biased to the upside so a break above the shooting-star highs at 1.2577 would confirm a continuation of this trend higher, to an upside target at 1.2612 at the start of a resistance zone to 1.2631.

 

For those seeking a short-term play in line with the current break lower, then a move below 1.2440 would probably confirm an extension to the downside towards the range lows and support at 1.2400 – but I emphasize this is a high risk strategy, given the sideways nature of current price action.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: still rising within channel

 

USD/JPY uptrend remains intact and it keeps making higher highs, however, it has reached the upper-border line of its rising channel where it is likely to encounter resistance.

 

RSI is also in the overbought zone and this would make me hesitate to add to my position, but it is starting to move lower again; if it popped below the 70 level that might be a good time to add to long positions.

 

Ultimately despite these signs price action remains bullish, so I would expect the up-trend to extend, and a move up to historic support and resistance situated at 117.60 is still on target.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possibility of break lower with CPI on tap

 

With today's CPI data expected to produce much volatility in sterling pairs its worth taking a look at cable.

 

The pair has been in a sustained down-trend since the summer highs and most recently broke down below the upper-border of a multi-year triangle, and the 61.8% fibonacci retrace of the previous rally: these are bearish signs, and the with no evidence to the contrary I see the down-trend extending further; a lower-than-expected inflation print would probably do that.

 

The most recent move saw cable breach the lower border of a wedge-like pattern and move down to below 1.5600. Chaikin Money Flow is indicating underlying weakness in the current sideways consolidation on the hourly chart which has formed in anticipation of today's data release.

 

A breach of the 1.5618 intraday lows would provide confirmation of a move down to the S3 monthly pivot at 1.5557.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD18.png