joaquinmonfort Posted October 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 USD/JPY: continuation higher The USD/JPY pair is rallying strongly. It has just broken above resistance from former highs at 79.69 and there is a continuation pattern on the daily chart which indicates a high probability of a move even higher, if the days highs are breached, with an eventual target at 80.27 - although resistance may occur slightly earlier from the monthly pivot situated around 80.19. In any case there is a probability of resistance within that zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 EUR/USD: bounce possible My preference is for a bounce in the short-term - perhaps to 1.3080 - given the pair has just reached long-term support at the 1.3020 level. A decisive break above that level would probably lead to a rally to the 1.3135 highs. Alternatively a move below 1.3010 could signal a break lower, probably down to the trend-line at 1.2920. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 USD/CHF: probable bullish reversal The swissie looks poised to reverse and break higher. Today has been a strong up-day which is pushing against the major August trend-line. There is strong convergence with momentum at the lows. 5 waves down have completed from the August highs. A bullish close today (above the 0.9285s) would provide more bullish evidence. A break above today's highs would confirm a probable continuation to 0.9390 at least. However unlikely, a move below the day's lows however could see a retest of 0.9214. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 EUR/GBP: continuation higher The EUR/GBP pair has pulled back in an up-trend, but a continuation pattern on the daily chart shows that it will probably continue higher. It has also broken substantial long-term resistance at 0.8100. If it moves above Monday's highs then I see a probable rally up to 0.8215, whilst the next target after that would be the 0.8165 level where the 38.2% Fibonacci lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2012 EUR/USD: technical analysis Eurodollar has broken down through substantial support. The strength of the move down indicates it could continue. It will probably eventually reach 1.2830 where major support is clustered although there is a trend-line at around the 1.2880 mark as well. There is a possibility of a rebound back up to 1.2975 but it would have to move back above the 1.2996 highs to renew the bullish short-term up-trend, which currently looks unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2012 GBP/USD: technical analysis The GBP/USD pair has rebounded from the 38.4% Fibonacci line and found resistance at the current 1.6015 highs. It will probably pull-back again from there and re-touch of the 1.5915 lows, perhaps even breaking lower and targeting the 1.5810-20 zone where further support might slow deeper inroads, however. There could still be a final wave 5 higher, with a break above the 1.6050 level supplying confirmation and targeting 1.6100 initially and the 1.6275 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 EUR/USD: meeting resistance Eurodollar has reached resistance from a down-sloping trend-line. There will probably be a pull-back from here, down to support at perhaps the 1.2945 level, and if the 1.2920 hammer lows are broken than that would provide added bearish confirmation and probably see the down-swing accelerate. Alternatively a breakout higher – perhaps above the 1.3030 level - could see an uninterrupted run all the way up to the previous highs at 1.3145. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 USD/JPY: short-term correction The USD/JPY has just hit resistance from the monthly and weekly pivots and it will probably fall back down into the 79.80 support region; with a break below 79.69 required to generate a bearish reversal. Longer-term, however, things look more bullish after the down-sloping trend-line from 2007 was broken. Strong continuation patterns on both the daily and the weekly charts target 80.50. A retest of the 84.23 highs is not out of the question, although a break above 80.20 would add confirmation, with a more modest initial target set at 81.15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 EUR/USD: trend-line supporting Eurodollar has reached support at 1.2910 from the trend-line for the whole July rally. If it bounce's above 1.2950 then it will probably reach back up to 1.2990. Alternatively, there is a possibility, now that the 1.2920 lows have been broken of a continuation down. A decisive break-down through the trend-line – signalled by a break below 1.2895 should give rise to a swift sell-off down to 1.2830 where strong support kicks in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 EUR/GBP: finding support The EUR/GBP pair has fallen swiftly to the trend-line for the July rally. It could bounce from here although price action is not showing any signs yet. A break above 0.8033 would provide some confirmation of a rebound and target 0.8084 where the monthly pivot is situated. Such is the strength of the down-trend, however, that there is also a possibility of a breakdown through the trend-line, signalled by a breach of 0.7980, with the next target down at 0.7855. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 EUR/USD: technical analysis A possible double-bottom at the lows could give rise to a rally higher, although it would have to move above the neckline at 1.2955 to trigger such a rally, and the major trend-line sitting at 1.2935 will try to resist, however, the eventual target for the pattern is 1.3025. It is therefore also quite possible the bear move could extend lower and a decisive break below the previous 1.2882 lows could probably lead to a move down to resistance clustered at 1.2830. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 EUR/JPY: head and shoulders The head-and-shoulders on the 4-hourly chart has broken down although the volume isn't weak enough on the right shoulder for it to get '5-stars'. Nevertheless, the target to the downside is 101.67, although the 200-day MA at 102.03 offers a closer target. The hammer currently on the hourly chart indicates the possibility of higher prices, perhaps back up to the neckline at 103.15 with a break above 102.89 adding confirmation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 AUD/CAD: continuation signal The aussie-cad pair has been rallying higher and has just given a continuation signal that it may go even higher. There is a strong probability of a move up to 1.0400 close to where the monthly pivot is situated, and if that is cleared then it will also probably follow-through to 1.0450. A breach of the 102.65 lows would negate the continuation pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtS Posted October 29, 2012 Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will be interesting to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2012 USD/JPY: upside expected Evidence is accumulating that USD/JPY could rebound after the BOJ policy meeting tonight when the central bank is expected to announce more stimulus which would be positive for the pair. The technical picture supports this view with the 200-day and hour MAs supporting current lows. Last week's continuation pattern – mentioned on Monday - has still not reached its high probability 80.45 target – but it probably will as resistance doesn't kick in until 80.62. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 EUR/USD: meeting resistance The EUR/USD has bounced off its lows and risen back up to the top of its down-sloping range. It is also hitting trend-line resistance at 1.2950. It has formed a shooting star on the hourly chart and there is the possibility that this could herald the start of a down-move to support clustered at around the 1.2850 level. Momentum is holding up quite well, however, and there is also the possibility of a surprise break-out higher although further resistance clustered around 1.2970 would likely prevent follow-through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 30, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 AUD/CAD: continuation signal The AUD/CAD has rallied higher as predicted yesterday and it is close to achieving the target at 1.0400. Today the pair is showing signs of yet another continuation, with even more potential for higher prices and a high-probability target at 1.0435. Today's close needs to be relatively strong and above 1.0359 to confirm the set-up. A breach of the 1.0334 lows however, would negate the extended continuation although yesterday's target would still hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 EUR/USD: possible short The spike higher this morning, visible on the 4-hour chart is probably just a correction of the main down-trend. It will probably reverse at the current highs and begin to break-down. A shooting-star pattern is currently forming which could signal the beginning of such a move, which would then target 1.2945. Alternatively a continuation higher, confirmed by a break above the shooting star highs, could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3040. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 GBP/USD: pull-back in uptrend The GBP/USD has risen to the trend-line drawn from the highs and the 200-4 hour MA where it has formed a shooting star candlestick pattern. This indicates a possibility of a short-term pull-back, perhaps the support from the monthly pivot at 1.6080. The wider outlook, however, indicates the current rally might be the start of final 5th wave higher, which would be expected to re-touch the 1.6275 highs, and a break above the 1.6139 highs would confirm a continuation higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2012 EUR/JPY: downside expected The EUR/JPY is consolidating into a tight tip in between two lines of support and resistance composed of two trend-lines. The rising wedge/diagonal pattern seen on the daily chart over the last few weeks and the shooting star candle on the 4-hour chart indicates possible weakness on the horizon. An initial move could reach 103.00, and then support at 102.20. On the upside there is the chance it could rise back up although the trend-channel line at 103.80 limits further gains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 EUR/USD: downside breakout Eurodollar has broken out of the triangular pattern at the highs and fallen sharply lower. It has just reached the monthly pivot at 1.2795 and formed a hammer candlestick on the hourly chart. It could rebound from here, finding resistance back up at 1.2860, but the overall picture remains bearish, with a possible move down to 1.2685 and then perhaps 1.2640 where a thick clustering of support would probably prevent further declines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 GBP/USD: technical analysis GBP/USD is still channeling down in a broadening formation. The current move has hit major support from a combination of the weekly and monthly pivots and there is a hammer candlestick on the hourly chart, raising the possibility of a temporary bounce, perhaps back up to 1.6010. Overall, however, the bears still look like they are in charge, and a break below 1.5940 could signal a continuation down to 1.5860 perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2012 EUR/USD: temporary bounce The EUR/USD pair has continued to fall after breaking out of its consolidation zone although it has slowed up now after meeting the monthly pivot yesterday. Whilst the daily and higher charts are indicating the potential for a major bearish reversal the short-term charts show we might get a bounce off the monthly pivot and a retouch of the range at 1.2835-50 before a resumption of the down-trend; a break of the 1.2803 highs would give added confirmation of a bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2012 EUR/GBP: meeting trend-line The EUR/GBP pair has fallen to support from its trend-line where it has posted a hammer candle and is now forming another hammer today. This combination could signal a possible rebound at first to the 50-day moving average at 0.8023, and then further gains could reach 0.8050-75. A break down through the trend-line is also possible, and could fall to the 100-day MA at 0.7965 first, with a break below that required to confirm further downside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2012 EUR/JPY: finding support The EUR/JPY pair has found support on the daily chart from its trend-line and is in the process of forming a hammer candlestick. There is the possibility of a rally higher if we get some bullish confirmation, with a move up to 103.30 first and then 104.35. However, there is substantial event risk on the horizon with the U.S Presidential elections and this could lead to unexpected volatility. A break lower, therefore, is also possible targeting support and resistance at 100.70. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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