Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend extends

 

The USD/JPY pair is rising in a short-term up-trend which has broken bullishly up through resistance from the 50-day and 100-day MA's and continues to move higher. The next resistance level and therefore target is at 98.95 at the apex of the triangle and previous highs. After that, the next target higher is at the monthly pivot, which is situated at 99.38. The 50 and 100-day MA's now provide support underpinning the rally at 98.50, and any pull-backs would find support at that level. The short and longer-term trend are in sync now favouring a continuation higher – mid-term the pair is still going sideways.

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-rOC-GcSK8K8/UnpCz5ab1II/AAAAAAAAGjg/qjt6FH-K-fI/w628-h570-no/USDJPY06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: supported at lower channel line

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade sideways at the support provided by the bottom of a larger rising channel. The overall tend remains 'up' but now also in doubt after the recent rapid sell-off. The lower channel line is the last barrier to a reversal of the short-term trend and if breached would usher in a much more bearish climate, with a target at around 1.3050 eventually (using the width of the channel) but more immediately at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3271. A break above the range highs would resume the up-trend. A break above yesterday's false breakout highs, above 1.3450, would provide necessary confirmation, generating an initial target at 1.3610. A breakdown below 1.3405 would help confirm a channel breakout. It is the ECB rate meeting today with much volatility expected.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-CAFC14sMmJk/UntwnMg4DUI/AAAAAAAAGkA/3LBq027BzMo/w628-h570-no/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bullish flag unfolding

 

Cable has paused after touching the underside of an old trend-line at the 1.6117 highs, and has started to consolidate. The consolidation looks like a flag pattern which will probably break to the upside continuing the short-term bullish trend. A move above the 1.6117 highs would provide more confirmation of a break higher with a target at the range highs at 1.6255. Broadly the pair is in a sideways consolidation under the lower border of a multi-month triangle, which is likely to eventually break to the upside and continue the mid-term trend higher.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-2LMRYEprLWk/UnuLbV-v4qI/AAAAAAAAGkk/xmYrj83PGDg/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: channel breakdown

 

The EUR/USD pair broke down rapidly yesterday after the ECB announced a rate cut at their monthly meeting. This led to a breakdown out of the rising channel, setting a target to the downside equivalent to the width of the channel at 1.3018. It definitively marked a change of the short-term trend from up to down. The next support level and therefore target down lies at 1.3271 where the S1 monthly pivot resides. The exchange rate is currently at 1.3425, pulling back in what may be an A-B-C correction. Once the C leg is complete this could lead to a resumption of the down-trend. There is possibility it is ending now since it is up against resistance from the S1 monthly pivot. If it rises up any further it could reach resistance at 1.3460, from where it will probably reverse and fall back down.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-mKZaaXuQ2mY/UnN1CgXZSfI/AAAAAAAAGfc/paikiMPX_xM/w728-h660-no/EURUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: poised to break higher

 

Cable was in a short-term up-trend, rising within a sideways consolidation when the ECB rate cut yesterday led to a pull-back. It recovered soon afterwards, however, and continued higher. It will probably now rise up towards the range highs at 1.6255. There is a lot of support underpinning the exchange rate's current level, including the monthly pivot and several moving averages, with the 50 and 100-day MA's also at 1.6000. Prices will now probably rise up to the range highs after completing the current consolidation and breaking out above the range highs (including a buffer) at 1.6130 or so. If there is a pull-back then support at 1.6000 will probably contain it.

 

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-uFIRrN7uazQ/UnzSKa1QT9I/AAAAAAAAGls/bWTCqB422v4/w728-h660-no/GBPUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuation lower

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a short-term down-trend. It is expected to extend lower, possibly down to a target at 1.3070 eventually. A break below 1.3315 or the 1.3295 lows would provide bearish confirmation of a continuation lower. Any further upside is currently capped by an old trend-line, but if there is a break higher then it will probably only reach as high as 1.3400 where there is a cluster of particularly strong resistance levels which are likely to prevent it from rising any higher. At that level it is possible the pair may rotate and resume its descent, with the 1.3295 lows providing an initial target down.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-zVZ-PTngN0c/UoDOg6Mb1mI/AAAAAAAAGmY/QvYS0Qf8ozM/w728-h660-no/EURUSD11.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: meeting resistance; upside bias

 

The USD/JPY fell sharply and then recovered equally as sharply. The short-term trend is in doubt although there is a marginal upside bias because of the past rally in the mid/long-term. The exchange rate is currently pushing up against firm resistance from the lower border of the multi-month triangle at about 99.25; and a move above that level would probably take it up to the recent highs at 99.40; a further move above that would be a strong bullish sign, indicating a continuation higher to a probable fulfilment of the next upside count at the 100.60 highs. As far as downside goes the 200-day is situated at 97.75 and has historically provided support, and any pull-backs would probably find support there. ADX has bounced from acute lows, indicating some trending market behaviour may be on the horizon - probably upwards.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-fG23G2DLWlo/UoDRCdhlhaI/AAAAAAAAGms/hNLD6CCHFRo/w728-h660-no/USDJPY11.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle forming

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a sideways consolidation which looks like a triangle or pennant pattern and which will probably break to the downside eventually given the dominant bearish short-term trend. Confirmation of such a break might come from a move below the 1.3115 lows with an end target at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3250, and possibly even all the way down to 1.3200. Alternatively there is a possibility – although lesser – of an upside break above 1.3437, which would lead to a move up to 1.3510 where the 50-day MA is situated and possibly even higher to 1.3580, the target generated by the pattern. Given the dominant down-trend, however, the break will probably be lower.

 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-2eHFXHaVJc0/UoIC2fZn2vI/AAAAAAAAGnM/ZImAamKG67M/w728-h660-no/EURUSD12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: meeting resistance; upside bias

 

The USD/JPY pair is continuing to rise in the short-term bullish trend. It is currently breaking above the upper border line of the triangle and moving higher, and it is expected to continue. First, however, it must get over resistance from the R1 monthly pivot which it is trading up against now. RSI is also heavily overbought indicating the pair is due a pull-back. The old trend-line at 99.45 would be the obvious target for such a correction If, however, the up-trend proves too strong and it breaks above the pivot now it will probably rise to the next target at the 100.00 psychological level, followed by the key 100.60 highs, and if there is a correction these targets stand anyway.

 

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3-t7dd1qxpo/UoId02ZjfBI/AAAAAAAAGn4/KL6wwTqgZJk/w728-h660-no/USDJPY12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways move extends

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a strong short-term, down-trend. It broke below the lower trend-line of a rising channel and generated a downside target of 1.3005, however, instead of continuing down, the exchange rate then formed a triangle. This triangle broke to the upside – surprisingly – despite the downside bias; however, it failed to make much progress higher after the initial breakout. Since then the exchange rate has slowly drifted back down to support at 1.3395 and the pattern is starting to look like a bullish right-angled triangle instead. With a mix of signals higher and lower the exchange rate will probably now move in a range between 1.3450 and 1.3300, and the lack of major news today is a further reason to expect more sideways churn in the short-term.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD13-e1384340132176.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways move extends

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a strong short-term, down-trend. It broke below the lower trend-line of a rising channel and generated a downside target of 1.3005, however, instead of continuing down, the exchange rate then formed a triangle. This triangle broke to the upside – surprisingly – despite the downside bias; however, it failed to make much progress higher after the initial breakout. Since then the exchange rate has slowly drifted back down to support at 1.3395 and the pattern is starting to look like a bullish right-angled triangle instead. With a mix of signals higher and lower the exchange rate will probably now move in a range between 1.3450 and 1.3300, and the lack of major news today is a further reason to expect more sideways churn in the short-term.

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-IsUrSXZYSeA/UoNg3dffqBI/AAAAAAAAGoc/VtYkuDCPO4g/w728-h660-no/EURUSD13.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling back in up-trend

 

The USD/JPY was in a short-term up-trend but it has reached resistance at 99.78 from the R1 monthly pivot and has started to consolidate in a sideways move. It has already broken above the upper border line of the multi-month triangle and moved higher, and once the current resistance level is passed it is expected to continue higher with the next target at the 100.00 psychological level, followed by the key 100.60 highs. If there is a correction back then the old trend-line at 99.45 would be an obvious target for such a correction; any pull-back would probably be temporary until the dominant up-trend resumed.

 

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-ujT7kj61nlc/UoN2jdARraI/AAAAAAAAGpA/pNKr0J3TYSk/w728-h660-no/USDJPY13.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating; downside bias

 

EUR/USD broke out of the triangle higher but then hit resistance from the lower channel line at 1.3500 and pulled back. The bullish breakout contradicts the bearish signal from the breakdown out of the channel, giving mixed signals; however the short-term bearish trend overall remains dominant and should continue. The lower channel line and the 50-day MA resist further upside at 1.3500 and 1.3515 respectively, essentially capping the highs. A clear break above these – in fact above 1.3550 - would be necessary for a more bullish outlook, targeting 1.3650 perhaps. A move down to the consolidation lows at 1.3425 is more probable as the short-term bear trend resumes. A break below 1.3385 would probably indicate an extension of the down-trend to the 1.3295 lows. Important euro-zone GDP data out today could cause volatility.

 

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-zWvJVCKje8Q/UoSiXNysKWI/AAAAAAAAGpg/yeQqqrxFFWE/w728-h660-no/eurusd14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: trending higher, 100 reached

 

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise and make new highs. Now it has hit the 100.00 level, where it is pausing because it is at a key psychological level. It is in a short-term bullish trend which is expected to continue higher. It has risen up strongly and broken out above key resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at the 99.80 level. The break is a significant bullish signal indicating the trend higher will probably continue. It will now probably go even higher until it reaches resistance at the 100.50-60 highs. Beyond that and the next target may be at around 101.50.

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-7sbV-1elgKM/UoTCmYoW7fI/AAAAAAAAGqE/6HHg65oyeNY/w728-h660-no/USDJPY14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still pulling-back in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair has continued to consolidate in a possible triangle or triangle-like pattern after breaking down out of a rising channel. The initial breakout from the channel was a very bearish sign, with an extrapolation of the down-side target to as low as 1.3050. The current pull-back is probably just temporary before the down-trend resumes. On some charting packages a bearish harami candlestick reversal pattern completed yesterday, and if today is a down-day then that will provide bearish confirmation and possibly provide the initial downside impetus. Ideally I would want to see a decisive break below 1.3389 for confirmation. Because of firm resistance above price action, from the lower channel line amongst other things, I would want to see a clear break above the 1.3550 level before considering adopting a more bullish stance.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD15-e1384510095763.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: meeting resistance inside range

 

Cable has moved back up into its range after a recent false breakdown. It has now almost reached the range highs at the 1.6110 level. From these mini-range highs it might be expected to rotate lower again and move down to the lows of the consolidation range at 1.5840, with confirmation coming from a breach of 1.5988. RSI is not very overbought, however, limiting the bearish outlook.

The overall trend is still up, however, – at least short-term – and a break above the 1.6110 highs could continue that trend up to the old range-highs at 1.6255. The current level is in many ways pivotal. Today, there is a lack of data out for the U.K, and the data for the dollar is not major, so it is possible the pair may not break much in either direction.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD15-e1384518223917.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting strong resistance

 

The EUR/USD pair has risen up to resistance at 1.3515, from the underside of a major rising channel, which it recently bearishly broke down from. There will probably now be a rotation back down from here, and the resumption of the dominant short-term down-trend. Even if there is a break higher, it will soon run into further formidable resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.5525 which would be expected to exert further resistance. There is no major data out today so there is less likelihood of a major upside break. What is probably more likely is the sideways consolidation will continue, and then the down-trend will resume, with a break below 1.3450 confirming a move down to a target at 1.3275.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD18-e1384768949716.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking above mini-range highs

 

Cable has risen to new 1.6148 highs above the 1.6110 mini-range highs and has pulled-back now to 1.6110 level – now support. The pair will probably rally from off this level and continue higher, eyeing the range highs at 1.6255 eventually. A break above 1.6148 would provide confirmation of such a move. Although there is the possibility of a rotation back down to the range lows – possibly targeting 1.5855, it seems less likely now the highs have been breached and the short-term trend is bullish. A break below 1.6050, however, would confirm such a bearish move down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD18-e1384773971621.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: grinding higher

 

The EUR/USD pair continues rising in a counter-trend reaction after the steep sell-off from the 1.38 highs. It is pressing up against resistance from the lower line of the rising channel and continues to work its way higher along this line, without managing to actually break back inside the channel. It has attempted, but failed, to break above the 50-day MA at 1.3525. Given it has already broken down out of the channel, which was a bearish sign, the pair will probably resume the descent which the original break promised, and fall even more deeply, perhaps to 1.3275; confirmation would come from a decisive move below around the 1.3470 mark. Alternatively a move above the nearby 1.3550 would be a very bullish sign, and give a strong signal of a resumption of the broader short/mid-term up-trend. A pivotal moment.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD19-e1384856565850.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling from mini-range highs

 

Cable has pulled back after temporarily breaking above the mini-range highs at 1.6110. Initially it looked like bulls might succeed in driving the exchange rate higher, but this was not the case and it has since weakened and fallen back down to below 1.6100 again. Now it looks more likely that prices will fall to the range lows at 1.5855. There is, however, substantial support at around the 1.6050 level, including the 50-day MA and this would need to be surpassed before a path lower could be found. A move below 1.6025 therefore might provide the necessary confirmation of such a bearish move lower. Alternatively, it is still possible prices will recover given the pair's overall upside bias, and a move above 1.6155 would help to confirm a move higher to the range highs at 1.6255.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD19-e1384861024839.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend in doubt

 

EUR/USD continues rising. It has broken above the 50-day MA at 1.3525 and even temporarily above the key 1.3550 level. It has broken back inside the rising channel. These bullish signs, though tentative, indicate a possible resumption of the broader short/mid-term up-trend, and it is possible we will see further upside now to the next target higher at the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3630, although a decisive re-break of the 1.3578 highs would be required to signal such a move. The direction of the short-term trend is much less clear now and I am not as certain it will resume its descent. Any weakness may fall to the lower border-line of the rising wedge at 1.3480. If today ends down it will form a shooting star candlestick which could augur a turning point and a resumption of the down-trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD20-e1384942409764.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: moving sideways

 

The USD/JPY pair is currently pulling-back, whilst overall it is in a short-term up-trend. It rallied up and hit resistance at 100.20 before pulling back down to where it currently resides at 99.90. It is probably starting a sideways consolidation now, perhaps forming a price pattern, such as a triangle. It has just fallen down within the 'consolidation' range and it might even reach 99.60, and the range lows. After that, however, it is expected to rebound and move back up to the range highs between 100.20 and 100.40. Eventually the probabilities favour an upside break with a target of 100.75 where the R1 monthly pivot resides, however, a sideways move is favoured in the short-term, particularly in the run up to the BOJ rate meeting this evening.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/USDJPY20-e1384952849921.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking lower

 

EUR/USD broke down out of its rising wedge pattern yesterday. It has resumed its down-trend. It will probably fall further now, although there is quite robust support not far below from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3390, which must be passed before a stronger move down begins. It is still possible there could be a substantial bounce from this level higher, possibly up to 1.3450. However, overall the short-term down-trend dominates and would be expected to persist. Once the 1.3390 support has been breached I would expected another leg lower, perhaps targeting support at the 1.3295 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD21-e1385027040391.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: range-bound; upside bias

 

Cable continues trading within a range-bound consolidation. It rose temporarily but has now fallen back down to around the 1.6100 mark. There is strong support from a cluster of MA's at 1.6050 which could impede further downside, although clearance of that could lead to a move down to 1.5855 lows. A re-break above the 1.6170 highs, meanwhile, might indicate the possibility of a move up to the range highs at 1.6255. Overall the short-term trend remains up and after the sideways move has completed would be expected to break higher and continue. The exchange rate has just reached resistance, however, from the lower border of the major multi-year triangle. Nevertheless a clear breakout above the range highs could take the pair all the way up to the 1.6650 level, calculated by extrapolating the width of the range higher – as in a box pattern.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GBPUSD21-e1385033378467.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pull-back from resistance

 

The direction of the short-term trend is unclear. The pair has reached major resistance from the 50-day MA and the lower channel-line at 1.3548 and pulled back down to 1.3515 today. There is a possibility of a recovery back up to the 1.3578 highs, particularly if the 1.3560 highs are bettered. Or alternatively the current pull-back could develop into a stronger down-move, in which case it would be expected to fall down to 1.3430 support. With this recovery back up still going strong but the broader longer-term profile more bearish, mixed signals make trend determination a challenge.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD25.png