joaquinmonfort Posted October 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2013 USD/JPY: up-trend continuing; resistance above The USD/JPY pair continues to strengthen and to rise and the overall short-term trend remains up. The pair has broken back into the large triangle – a bullish sign. However there is resistance overhead from the monthly pivot and the 100-day MA at 98.78 and 98.60 respectively and this could impede further upside. Ideally I would want to see clearance of 99.00 for confirmation of a resumption of the bullish trend higher, and a target at 99.55. There is a possibility the pair may have formed a broadening formation on the 4-hr chart. This would indicate potentially more weakness to come as it is a reversal pattern. There is the possibility of fall right back down to 98.00 if broadening formation expands. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-JDXELO9c2M8/Ul0oxjhrzII/AAAAAAAAGTc/_t4A1fWoKNs/w402-h365-no/USDJPY15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nanypurwanti Posted October 15, 2013 Report Share Posted October 15, 2013 All currency start going strength again USD, USD is weak because the USA economic really deep got suffer of ruin and collapse... It's good and i hope usd will be the weakest currency in the world... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2013 EUR/USD: rangebound; downside bias Since the break below the 1.3484 lows the technical bias has been to the downside, with the short-term trend now very much in doubt. There is now a strong possibility of a continuation lower to perhaps 1.3410, with a breach of the 1.3478 lows acting as confirmation. Currently an A-B-C correction higher is unfolding which could reach the 1.3550-60, however, the down-trend will probably resume thereafter, taking the exchange rate back down to 1.3479 lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2013 EUR/USD: breaking higher The EUR/USD pair has broken to the upside; the spike was been so strong and rapid that it has probably reversed the short-term trend to 'up' again. The exchange rate has almost reached the level of the previous highs at 1.3645, and a break above these would add bullish confirmation. The next target is either 1.3680 or 1.3690 generated from the trend-line break and the R1 monthly pivot respectively. A re-break of the 1.3637 recent spike highs could also provide bullish confirmation. Theoretically there is a possibility the spike may just be a very strong A-B-C correction of the short-term down-trend, however this is highly unlikely given the sheer strength of the up-shoot, and when I see sudden breakouts like these they usually denote more upside is likely to follow. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jWPyvKLXuHU/Ul-uSOvwoSI/AAAAAAAAGUk/4G20EKtOu0E/w402-h365-no/EURUSD17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2013 USD/JPY: broadening formation completing A clearly defined broadening formation has developed on the USD/JPY chart. Price has now fallen and touched the lower border of the formation for the 3rd time and this means it is probably complete. There is a strong chance it will break to the down-side since it is a reversal price pattern. Further, the exchange rate is at the level of strong resistance from the lower border of the triangle. There is a possibility of a short rally higher to resistance at 98.30 first – but then the exchange rate will probably start to fall – with confirmation coming from a re-break of the 97.80 lows - and break down, targeting the 96.50. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-oLyC34zEABY/Ul-_77d3NmI/AAAAAAAAGVU/RDIXnSqZ6Pc/w402-h365-no/USDJPY17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2013 GBP/USD: spike goes higher The EUR/USD pair has continued to rise higher after the resumption of the short-term up-trend. It has risen to the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3691 where it has met resistance and it has paused to consolidate. The pair is overbought and there is a possibility of a pull back to 1.3650 and then perhaps a consolidation but eventually it is expected to go higher, continuing the short-term up-trend. It will probably reach the next upside target at 1.3860, with a decisive break above 1.3700-10 clearing the pivot, and helping to add confirmation of more upside. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-udRKnOMKJDA/UmD3GCH89ZI/AAAAAAAAGWI/plFCYGy7J_U/w483-h438-no/EURUSD18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2013 GBP/USD: up-trend continuing Cable is in a strong short-term up-trend which looks like it will probably extend higher. The next target up is at 1.6300 where price will meet robust resistance from the upper line of a multi-year triangle. The current short-term up-trend is a little overbought on momentum metrics and there is the possibility of a sideways consolidation or pull-back to the 1.6145 level before it continues higher, but apart from stalling momentum there are not other signs the up-trend is turning so it might just carry on pushing higher regardless. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-cGG4LyvCFWc/UmELuxIGHrI/AAAAAAAAGWw/80csh9kRTA0/w483-h438-no/GBPUSD18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2013 AUD/USD: short-term up-trend continues The aussie has continued rising and even broken bullishly through the R1 monthly pivot at 0.9590. There are no signs of it reversing and so I expect it to probably extend higher and continue rallying up, with a tentative target at resistance at 0.9770 where the 200-day MA is situated. At that level it will probably pause to consolidate or pull-back. There are indications it is already quite overbought, however, and this suggests the possibility it may go sideways now, falling to perhaps 0.9635. The short-term bull-trend remains dominant, however, and is expected to go higher eventually. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-eigxCwitRWs/UmEipCEY46I/AAAAAAAAGXY/B-CFBtSwerA/w483-h438-no/AUDUSD18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 EUR/USD: trending up; at previous highs The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after the latest move higher. This is probably a continuation pattern which will eventually break to the upside. There is resistance from major highs at 1.3710, which if broken would be a major bullish sign. There is also the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692, which is also resisting further gains. To be on the safe side wait for a clear break above the 1.3710 highs before expecting more bullish moves. The next target higher would be 1.3860. As far as a correction goes there is a potential small H&S pattern on the 30min chart with a neckline at 1.3655, and a break below that could signal a correction back down to 1.3615, although eventually the dominant short-term up-trend would be expected to resume. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wFBJ7MrW7Gk/UmTz-_LSxWI/AAAAAAAAGYE/qPjmQM-Pbe4/w628-h570-no/EURUSD21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2013 EUR/USD: pressing higher; NFPs on tap EUR/USD is in a short-term up-trend which has reached the level of the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3691 and is currently acting as a resistance level denying further gains. The yearly highs are positioned not far above at 1.3710 and may also be acting as resistance and limiting further upside. A break above these highs would be key to confirming the continuation of the up-trend, and if breached would provide a strong bullish signal, and target the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3860 initially. Alternatively a break below 1.3640 would be a sign of weakness and might lead to a move down to 1.3600, however, the up-trend would still be expected to recover and resume thereafter. Today sees the release of Non-Farm Payrolls which will probably have a major impact on the value of the dollar, and much volatility is expected. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-sFDZqop5Ims/UmY_sleLALI/AAAAAAAAGY0/6bVz2ELiTGE/w628-h570-no/EURUSD22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2013 GBP/USD: correction unfolding; up-trend intact Cable is currently pulling-back in an up-trend; it may fall further to support at 1.6100 and then rally from there, or simply recover from its present level. The dominant short-term bullish trend, however, is likely to push higher eventually. The next upside target is at the level of the previous highs at 1.6250 and after that there is resistance from the R1 monthly pivot and the upper channel line at 1.6420. Today Non-Farm Payrolls are released and may cause at the least, short-term volatility in either direction. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-8k-YxVhZUrU/UmZXECyDpyI/AAAAAAAAGZc/yO9sQGqW0YM/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2013 EUR/USD: up-trend boosted; currently pulling-back The EUR/USD is currently pulling back in an up-trend with a possibility of a move back to support at 1.3740 before a probable resumption higher. Given the recent boost to the dominant short-term up-trend it will probably continue. There are no signals of weakness so far, so up-trend will probably resume, and this pull-back is probably just as a result of some temporary profit-taking. The next target higher lies at the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3860, followed by resistance from a major trend-line at 1.4000; a break above the 1.3790 highs would add bullish confirmation. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-ZJQn5oBkH0o/UmedPfCqGyI/AAAAAAAAGak/bCYVl2TPE3k/w628-h570-no/EURUSD23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2013 USD/JPY: probing powerful support The recent sharp sell-off gives the very near-term a bearish bias and it will probably continue lower, particularly if if breaks below a thick band of support at 96.90, which is made up of the 200-day MA, the S1 monthly pivot (at 96.95) and the lower line of the broadening formation; with a move below targeting 95.65. The formidable support and the almost equal lengths of the recent move down indicate a possibility of a bounce, although there are no signs from price action yet to support this. Longer-term, however, there is an up-side bias to the chart, with the strong rally into the triangle tilting the probabilities in favour of a bullish upside breakout. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-sprsroZ4daU/Ume06LTN94I/AAAAAAAAGbM/14nePFXoPkM/w628-h570-no/USDJPY23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2013 EUR/USD: shooting star threatens pull-back The EUR/USD pair has reached resistance from an old trend-line and formed a long-tail shooting star on the 4hr chart with bearish overtones. The pair has also attained the price target from the break out of the pre-NFP consolidation pattern. Momentum is overstretched but not extreme yet. Technically the up-trend remains dominant and could simply continue rising further, however, there are signs of possible short-term weakness, with a break below 1.3760 probably leading to a pull-back to perhaps 1.3710, but thereafter the up-trend should resume and rally up to the next target higher at the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3860. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-qNfUnLcW1S0/UmjqX1fsk0I/AAAAAAAAGb0/4IDBi7ZSETg/w628-h570-no/EURUSD24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2013 GBP/USD: meeting consolidation range highs GBP/USD is in a short/medium-term up-trend which will probably extend higher. It is currently at the highs of this sideways consolidation - or price pattern indicating there could either be a breakout to the up-side, or a move from the highs down extending the sideways consolidation. Such a move would gain confirmation by breaking below 1.6110 and targeting the lows and support from a fairly important trend-line at 1.6005. Alternatively, a break above the highs at 1.6255, would extend the dominant up-trend higher and could lead to a run up to the large multi-year triangle's upper border line at 1.6340, which is expected to exert considerable resistance and slow the up-trend. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ON0IAkXBeh4/UmkDgfAzoWI/AAAAAAAAGcc/d0FBZ_TTQTw/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2013 EUR/USD: continuation higher; resistance at 1.3862 The EUR/USD pair is still rising in its short-term up-trend which remains intact and will probably continue higher, notwithstanding the possibility of a correction. There is the outline of a possible wedge formation at the highs on the 4hr chart which carries bearish connotations. Price is now quite close to the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3862 which it will probably reach and pause to stop and consolidate at. As far as downside is concerned if there is a move below the 1.3785 lows then it could lead to a pull-back to support at around 1.3740, however, the up-trend would be expected resume thereafter. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-hhJAvp6ozZw/UmpaQb6YJyI/AAAAAAAAGdo/ANXAlk5rrIM/w628-h570-no/EURUSD25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2013 USD/JPY: short-term down-trend confirmed The USD/JPY pair has broken down below the 200-day MA and has reached support at 96.95 from the S1 monthly pivot. It has bounced off that, back up to the 200-day again which is now resisting at 97.31 and could lead to a resumption of the short-term down-trend again. The breakdown from the consolidation pattern solidified the short-term down-trend which is now expected to continue lower, notwithstanding support from the S1. For confirmation I would want to see a clean break below the S1 at 96.95, followed by a move down to the critical lows at 96.55. A break below these would be a very bearish sign and confirm downside breakout from the multi-month triangle at the highs and a mid-term down-trend. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Cu2tS5Lk1zY/UmpaBtZoq5I/AAAAAAAAGdI/WMT9MQZgG0k/w628-h570-no/USDJPY25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2013 EUR/USD: correction lower continues The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish correction. It has now reached support from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3689 and it could bounce temporarily, however, the pivot will change tomorrow as its the end of the month. There may be a bounce to 1.3750 were MA's are clustered, however, there are no signs of such a bounce today, and candles remain bearish so it is more probable we will simply get more downside, with a decisive move below 1.3689 signalling a fall to trend-line support at 1.3640. Alternatively a sideways consolidation at the current pivot support is also very possible. The bearishness of the correction signals a possible change of the short-term trend, however, looked at on a longer-term chart it appears as merely a correction of the prevailing mid-term up-trend. The correction, therefore, would be expected to end at some point and the up-trend resume, going back up to the highs at 1.3831. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-MtpjQoG9pS8/UnIvp_wsF5I/AAAAAAAAGeU/Ogu36J0dPxQ/w628-h570-no/EURUSD31.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2013 EUR/USD: continuing lower The EUR/USD pair is showing major weakness and is falling rapidly in a new short-term down-trend after weak data released on Thursday led a renewal of crisis-fears for the euro-zone. The pair is expected to continue falling lower, to the next down-target at the 50-day MA at 1.3480, where it will probably pause and consolidate, at the very least, whilst 1.3435 provides another stop-off point at a minor trend-line. A break below the 1.3470s would be a very bearish sign and mark a definitive change of trend and the precedence of a dominant bear-trend. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mKZaaXuQ2mY/UnN1CgXZSfI/AAAAAAAAGfc/paikiMPX_xM/w506-h459/EURUSD01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2013 GBP/USD: @ support; double-top forming Cable is now probably in a short-term down-trend within a larger sideways move, which resembles a double-top reversal pattern. It is currently falling in the most recent down-leg of the pattern, heading lower towards the neckline at 1.5900. There is support from the 50-day MA and the 100-day MA at 1.5990 making further down-side progress harder, and I'd want to see clearance of these two levels signalled by a move below 1.5970 for confirmation of the bear continuation to 1.5900. The 200-day MA provides a further down-side target at 1.5875. On a longer time-frame the pair is in a sideways move, although the monthly chart still looks bullish after September's strong performance, and until the neckline is broken, one has to expect the up-trend to resume eventually. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-EQ8HblGM9xU/UnOKucODSeI/AAAAAAAAGf8/AsvAwCJONw4/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2013 EUR/USD: support met; bounce possible The EUR/USD pair has fallen to the 50-day MA and found support there, forming a long-tail hammer candlestick on the hourly chart which has led to bounce higher, and there is a high probability of a consolidation forming at this support level before the strong infant down-trend resumes. The next resistance level higher is at 1.3565 and it is possible we will see this bounce rise up to these levels before coming back down again, either as a sideways move unfolds or the bear trend resumes, targeting the 1.3440 lows. The move below the key 1.3475s was a very bearish sign and heralds a new environment; however, support from the lower-channel line adds to the MA, impeding further downside for now. Eventually a break below 1.3410 would signal a breakout of the channel and fix a target at 1.3050. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-J2qVLhp3DTw/Und-HDCpLAI/AAAAAAAAGgc/pwBkePdG77Y/w628-h570-no/EURUSD04.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2013 USD/JPY: pull-back in strong up-move The USD/JPY pair has reached major resistance at the lower border-line of the multi-month triangle. It has pulled back from this level and although it could fall lower, I would not expected it to break below support from the 50-day MA at 98.45. The short-term up-trend is still intact and expected to resume, returning to the 98.84 resistance highs. If it breaks above these it doesn't have far to go before it reaches the next important resistance level at the R1 monthly pivot at 99.38, then beyond that we have the key 100.00 level. The short-term up-trend is in harmony with the longer-term up-trend helping to validate it. On longer-time frames the triangle is expected to break to the upside eventually, moving up into the 100s. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-KNAizZhGZ_4/UneZwidv-iI/AAAAAAAAGhA/y7BYHn6VZRY/w628-h570-no/USDJPY04.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2013 EUR/USD: sideways move in down-trend The EUR/USD pair is weakening again after bouncing off the 50-day MA and the lower line of the rising channel. It is possible it may fall to the range lows at 1.3440 before recovering. The pair is in a sideways consolidation in a dominant short-term down-trend, and eventually a break below 1.3410 is expected as the trend resumes, which would signal a breakout of the channel and fix a target at 1.3050 (the width of the channel down), although an initial, closer target would be 1.3270. Nevertheless, whilst the current sideways move remains intact it will probably extend, oscillating between 1.3440 and the range highs at 1.3525, or even resistance at the key 1.3565s. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-5lxS7Mw9VnI/UnjP3xaUnNI/AAAAAAAAGhk/cvPWGqEClVk/w628-h570-no/EURUSD05.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2013 GBP/USD: resumption higher Cable has bounced off neckline support at 1.5900 and run up quite strongly to resistance at 1.6070 after data showed a rise in U.K services PMI to its highest level in 17 years. This means the double-top hypothesis is probably wrong now and instead the overall dominant short/mid term up-trend is probably resuming – or at the very least the short-term sideways trend. The first stop higher are the range highs at 1.6256. The monthly pivot is currently blocking more upside, but it will probably give way as the up-trend reasserts itself and moves back up to the highs, buy on pull-backs or after a confirmed break above 1.6100. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-Qjc9qunr49U/Unjff69MpjI/AAAAAAAAGiI/XydB_s9Y5iU/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD05.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted November 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating at base of channel The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a range, situated at the bottom of a larger rising channel. The overall trend remains 'up' but put in doubt following the recent rapid sell-off. The lower border-line of the rising channel is the final frontier - if it is breached it will signal the start of a bear trend with a target at around 1.3050 – if there is a bounce then the up-trend will remain intact. A break above the range highs - with a buffer included - at 1.3540 would signal an upside break and a resumption of rising prices, generating an initial target at 1.3610. A breakdown below 1.3405 would help confirm a breakdown out of the rising channel, with initial target at 1.3270. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Rv0rTIq-ukc/UnocVjFtKaI/AAAAAAAAGi8/s2os6fe28VM/w628-h570-no/EURUSD06.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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