joaquinmonfort Posted September 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2013 GBP/USD: exhausted and correcting Cable has fallen back down after temporarily breaking higher in what was possibly an exhaustion move. This exhaustion move indicates there will probably be a deeper correction, reaching the lower channel-line at 1.5780 eventually, however, I'd like to see a re-break of 1.5970 for confirmation. Technically the up-trend is still intact, however, and will probably resume, rising back up, either to the triangle border at 1.6000 or the R2 monthly pivot at 1.6050. Currently there are no bullish signs from price action, however, so the correction is expected, on balance, to continue falling to the lower channel line at 1.5780. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-sBzOe7yguWM/UkF5py1cb2I/AAAAAAAAGAM/sE6S0vl6H8Y/w461-h418-no/GBPUSD24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2013 EUR/USD: pulling-back; resumption expected EUR/USD continues in corrective mode, gently drifting down, making lower lows and lower highs. We have almost reached the 1.3555 down-target and momentum is converging near the zero-line; so there is a strong possibility of a reversal soon although there are no real strong bullish signs from price action itself. The short-term trend is up and this correction is expected to be temporary; once it finishes the up-trend is expected to resume. The next target higher would be the recent highs at 1.3568, where the R2 monthly pivot is also situated. The pivot is an obstacle to more upside but if it is decisively broken the next target higher would be 1.3667. More downside could see the pair fall to support from an old trend-line at 1.3515. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-WnOQu_j4BbE/UkKzDKHsJnI/AAAAAAAAGA8/gIR_KlKQhB8/w461-h418-no/EURUSD25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2013 EUR/USD: resumption expected The EUR/USD pair has recovered after correcting back. The short-term trend remains up and there are no major reversal signs, so it should continue going higher. Initially I would expect it to reach the 1.3568 highs where the R2 monthly pivot is located. If it can rally decisively above that level then it will probably reach R3 at 1.3667. As far as downside goes, its probably limited to a move down to the lows at 1.3560, however, given the trend is up any corrections are likely to be short-lived before the major trend resumes. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2qZooH6S4uw/UkPp5VlvvbI/AAAAAAAAGCI/70CLc_n6dO8/w461-h418-no/EURUSD26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2013 AUD/USD: possible resumption higher The aussie has corrected back but now the broader up-trend seems to be taking over again and reasserting itself. A re-break above the 0.9401 highs would probably lead to a rally up to 0.9425, and then perhaps higher back up to recent 0.9527 highs. Alternatively it is possible the correction has further to go and the pair could fall to the downside target generated from the breakout from the channel at 0.9253. A break below 0.9337 would be a definitively bearish indicator and probably lead to a move down to the aforesaid target. Eventually the dominant short-term up-trend should resume, although the 0.9337 lows are critical in this regard, since if broken they would give a bearish reversal signal. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xr-_r7O23cQ/UkQmXDNndhI/AAAAAAAAGDU/Txhp2LOX6tI/w461-h418-no/AUDUSD26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2013 EUR/USD: potential flag pattern Eurodollar is stuck in a range, forming what looks like a potential bullish flag pattern. The short-term trend remains up after the break above the major trend-line and the gap higher earlier in the month. The R2 monthly pivot situated at that 1.3560 highs is preventing more upside but it will probably be broken and I expected to see the pair go higher eventually. The next target up is the R3 pivot at 1.3667. This is highly unlikely to be surpassed in September, although we are close to the end of the month now, when the pivot locations will change. A decisive break above 1.3570 – or 1.3580 for comfort, would give a strong continuation signal higher, with the target at 1.3667 initially, although the flag is indicating another objective at 1.3915. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Yk9g7XG6Ir0/UkVNJpiULcI/AAAAAAAAGD8/jcsFnxukpMI/w461-h418-no/EURUSD27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2013 EUR/USD: flag pattern The EUR/USD pair is probably forming a bullish flag pattern. It is likely to break higher eventually because the short-term trend is up and will probably continue. There is resistance from the R2 monthly pivot at that 1.3560 highs but price will probably break above it. The next target up is the R3 pivot at 1.3667, however, these pivots will re-locate tomorrow when the month changes. A decisive break above 1.3570 – or 1.3580 for comfort, would give a strong continuation signal higher, with the target at 1.3667 initially, although the target generated by the flag pattern is much higher at 1.3915, and so this forms and eventual long-term objective. http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURUSD30.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2013 EUR/USD: flag pattern breaking out Eurodollar has started to break out of its sideways range. This could be a sign that the flag pattern is finally breaking higher. To be more certain I would be looking for a move above the 1.3587 breakout highs to provide confirmation. The first target for the breakout is at 1.3675, calculated by extrapolating the width of the range higher. The R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692 provides another target higher. The flag gives a longer-term target at 1.3915. Overall the short-term up-trend predominates and is expected to continue. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-kQTVetVB04c/UkqU-BfWqWI/AAAAAAAAGFU/em9F6gRzVAA/w628-h570-no/EURUSD01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2013 USD/JPY: at lower border line of triangle The USD/JPY pair has fallen to the lower border of the large triangle. The short-term trend is still down and expected to continue, but the triangle border provides strong support and a bounce is possible. A break below the 97.49 lows, however, would be a bearish continuation sign, although not much further below is the S1 monthly pivot at 96.98 which would be expected to slow-down any sell-off. A break below 96.80 would be the first strong confirmation of a triangle breakout , whilst a move below the 95.79 lows would be even more definitive. A breakout from the triangle gives an eventual target of 87.43. Alternatively, if price rallies above 98.72 - the neckline of a double bottom on the 4-hour chart - it could rise to 99.88, which also happens to be where the upper border of the triangle is situated. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hGEBy2nZBJs/Ukq7z2VoBwI/AAAAAAAAGF4/KvxwwI0EOME/w628-h570-no/USDJPY01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2013 EUR/USD: flag continues forming Eurodollar broke out of its flag pattern yesterday and started to move higher, however, it proved a false breakout in the end as the rally lost momentum and the exchange rate moved back down into the range. The outlook is still bullish for the pair given the strong short-term up-trend and this sideways market consolidation is expected to be just a pause before the rate continues higher. If it rises again and breaks above the high of yesterday's false breakout at 1.3587 then that would provide good confirmation of a continuation higher. The first up-target is at 1.3675, calculated by extrapolating the width of the range higher; the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692 provides another target higher; the flag gives a longer-term target at 1.3915. Overall the short-term up-trend predominates and is expected to continue. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-kQTVetVB04c/UkqU-BfWqWI/AAAAAAAAGFU/em9F6gRzVAA/w628-h570-no/EURUSD01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2013 EUR/USD: breaking out Eurodollar has broken out of its flag pattern for the second time and this time the break appears to be holding. Overall the short-term up-trend predominates and is expected to continue, first to the up-target at 1.3675 calculated by extrapolating the width of the range higher; then the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692; and finally to the long term target of the flag itself at 1.3915, which also happens to be at the level of a major trend-line. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-kQTVetVB04c/UkqU-BfWqWI/AAAAAAAAGFU/em9F6gRzVAA/w628-h570-no/EURUSD01.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2013 USD/JPY: bearish breakout from triangle The USD/JPY pair has broken below the lower border of the large triangle, continuing the short-term bearish trend down. It has fallen to support at 97.00, just above the S1 monthly pivot, and has now bounced back to the triangle border again. The breakdown out of the triangle has reinforced the bearish-trend which is expected to extend, although the monthly pivot will probably be an impediment to further progress. A move below it and the 96.80 lows would provide more bearish breakout confirmation. The triangle yields a longer-term eventual target of 87.43. A move above 98.60 and the 50-day MA would be required to consider the possibility of a bullish reversal. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-mIKQMp5SltE/Uk1Z18kmQxI/AAAAAAAAGI0/YikNL-_8jD0/w628-h570-no/USDJPY03.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2013 EUR/USD: bullish continuation Eurodollar has broken out of its sideways consolidation - or flag pattern - and is rising, albeit quite slowly. Overall the short-term up-trend predominates and is expected to continue, first to the up-target at 1.3675, calculated from extrapolating the width of the range up and then possibly the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692. The long term target for the flag, if it is a flag, is at 1.3915, which also happens to be at the level of a major trend-line and a natural place for the exchange rate to pause. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-sc97km2uOoU/Uk5-ddM5XDI/AAAAAAAAGJY/JTxoPWasxCs/w628-h570-no/EURUSD04.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2013 GBP/USD: bearish correction Cable is correcting back and has formed a short-term down-trend after the key break below the 1.6154 lows. The exchange rate will probably continue falling lower, probably to support at 1.6037 from the lower border of the major multi-year triangle. A break below that would lead to a move down to the next target at 1.5960 from the monthly pivot. Given the recent bullish break back into the triangle it is possible the up-trend could resume at any time with an upside target at 1.6300, nevertheless there are no signs of this happening yet, and the short-term down-trend remains intact. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-O8cS3iWPv8c/Uk6YDGcadPI/AAAAAAAAGKA/H5V49UkqvDs/w628-h570-no/GBPUSD04.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2013 EUR/USD: correcting back; up-trend intact Eurodollar stalled and fell back down after rising up out of its sideways consolidation/flag. Despite this, technically the short-term trend remains up and is still intact, so we will probably see a recovery and a move higher. The first target to the up-side are the recent highs at 1.3645 followed by the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692. Nevertheless the correction back down is disconcertingly sharp and there is a chance it could continue, with a move below 1.3553 lows indicating a probable breakdown to 1.3463. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vWxl1t9ttYA/UlKAc-ZjjII/AAAAAAAAGKs/xSX__LnPgo8/w728-h660-no/EURUSD07.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2013 USD/JPY: consolidating in down-trend The USD/JPY pair has continued falling after breaking out of the large triangle. It is in a short-term down-trend but has reached support from the S1 monthly pivot at 96.80, where it is currently consolidating. The breakdown out of the triangle has reinforced the bearish-trend which is expected to go further, however, there is tough support not only from the pivot but not far below from the 200-day MA at 96.65 from which there might be a temporary bounce. Nevertheless I'd expect to see the down-trend resume and extend, as there are no signs of reversal yet. If the pair decisively moves below around the 96.50 level, clearing the 200-day, it will probably fall to the next target, at the 95.77 lows. A break below those and we would definitely be on track to meet the eventual target generated by the triangle is at 87.43. Any bullish moves will probably be capped by resistance from the 50-day MA at 98.60 and it would have to break above that level for me to entertain the possibility of a bullish reversal. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-WLL8eSPo3Yc/UlKh6KKuvlI/AAAAAAAAGLU/Xe3cDgebbKo/w728-h660-no/USDJPY07.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2013 EUR/USD: trading in the range EUR/USD pulled back from the 1.3645 highs and is now moving in a sideways range. Apart from the sharpness of the initial leg down, there is nothing to indicate that this is anything more than a correction of the short-term up-trend. The initial bearish momentum has faded reinforcing the likelihood the dominant up-trend will resume, either now or after some more consolidating. The next up-target is a retouch of the recent high at 1.3645 followed by the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3692 (with key highs at 1.3710). A move below the 1.3553 lows would confirm a bearish continuation of the correction lower, probably to a target at 1.3463. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hHDnIDLyaeQ/UlPNTcWtfCI/AAAAAAAAGMo/9yIzHrw5HuU/w483-h438-no/EURUSD08.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2013 GBP/USD: pull-back to support in up-trend GBP/USD has pulled back to the lower border of a large multi-year triangle where it has found support and is currently consolidating. The short-term trend is a little in doubt given the strength of the recent move down, however overall, I think on balance the up-trend remains dominant and so I would be expecting it to recover – either now or perhaps after another leg down - and continue rising higher. The next up-target would be the 1.6259 highs with strong confirmation coming from a rise above the 1.6100 level. Alternatively there is a possibility the correction has further to fall, with a fall below the 1.6000 supplying bearish confirmation, although downside is capped by the monthly pivot at 1.5963 which is the main target below. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-GXiTAtVz2ms/UlPwb-laSpI/AAAAAAAAGNE/NMopssNNars/w483-h438-no/GBPUSD08.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2013 EUR/USD: 2nd leg of correction falling Eurodollar has broken lower in a second leg down from off the highs. It has moved below the 1.3538 lows, giving bearish confirmation of the continuation down. It will now probably reach a target at 1.3480, at the bottom of the previous consolidation pattern. The short-term trend up remains overall dominant despite this pull-back, although it is now weakened. The pattern at the highs is looking more and more like a reversal formation – perhaps a head-and-shoulders in progress, although it is still too early to say. Once the second leg of the A-B-C pattern has complete there is a possibility there will be a recovery back up to 1.3555 as the up-trend remains on-balance our guide. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-gWunXGCBfeM/UlUi9z5vb3I/AAAAAAAAGNs/mmILrp871AM/w483-h438-no/EURUSD09.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2013 EUR/USD: at support; A-B-C complete The EUR/USD pair has fallen to support from the previous lows at 1.3480 as expected. The short-term trend remains up however and so there is a possibility of a resumption higher. The correction down from the highs has completed an A-B-C pattern and this could indicate the potential for the start of a move higher with an initial target at 1.3550 and the previous consolidation zone highs, whilst a break above that would probably begin the start of a stronger move higher. Alternatively a break below 1.3461 could signal a potential reversal and start of a stronger move to the down-side to a band of support in the 1.3350-90 region from the 50-day MA and the monthly pivot, and then an eventual target to the downside of 1.3328. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-grDbmDr6gFE/UlZ5QADUwdI/AAAAAAAAGOs/Eowpsho1RV8/w483-h438-no/EURUSD10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2013 GBP/USD: supported by bottom of rising channel Cable has continued falling and has just reached support at the lower line of its rising channel – a strong support level. The move down from the highs has traced out an A-B-C correction, which could signal a resumption of the up-trend, particularly given the it remains dominant. A recovery from here would first be expected to reach 1.6045, however, in order to really definitively signal a resumption I would want to see a break above the 1.6123 highs, from where it would then probably reach 1.6250. The pair has temporarily broken below the monthly pivot, situated at 1.5960, and the lower border of the multi-year triangle – a significant bearish signal. A fall below 1.5900 would signal a breakout of the channel and lead to a fall to 1.5508. The BOE rate meeting is today and could cause volatility. Sterling's strength has been viewed as a possible source of problems for the economy, adding more pressure to the downside from a fundamental perspective. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-zTok4YeSIXE/UlaPzUxtk_I/AAAAAAAAGPU/OgEoPTx51aY/w483-h438-no/GBPUSD10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2013 EUR/USD: possible resumption higher Eurodollar has completed an A-B-C correction and started to go higher again. There is a possibility the short-term up-trend is resuming. Price has bounced back and surpassed resistance at 1.3550 and has almost reached the trend-line for the A-B-C. It is possible it could pull-back from this area of resistance temporarily, but given the dominant short-term up-trend it will probably eventually start up again. A break above the trend-line, at around 1.3570, would be a strong bullish sign and could lead to an even stronger push higher up to the recent highs at 1.3626 and then the monthly pivot at 1.3690. A move below the 1.3484 lows would cross a line in the sand and threaten to reverse the short-term trend from 'up' to 'down'. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-0ou8C4Sh2gg/UlfD6F6vJKI/AAAAAAAAGQA/knNlcsCt-uo/w483-h438-no/EURUSD11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2013 USD/JPY: meeting tough resistance The USD/JPY pair has moved above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and the trend-line, and broken higher, changing the short-term trend from 'down' to 'up'. Prices have now run up quite a way and reached the target for the inverted H&S at 98.40, as well as resistance from the under-side of the large triangle and the 50-day MA. Together this provides substantial resistance and there is a strong possibility the pair will pause or pull-back from here, perhaps to 98.00. Any correction will probably be short-lived, however, given the short-term bullish trend and afterwards the rate could resume its up-trend with a target at the monthly pivot at 98.78. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-3lA3Gg8fkhE/UlflMvsfIlI/AAAAAAAAGQo/AXL9qPvb0XU/w483-h438-no/USDJPY11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2013 EUR/USD: pull-back in up-trend Eurodollar has encountered quite tough resistance at the meeting point of several trend-lines and it has pulled back. It will probably recover soon, however, and attempt to break above the trend-line in the direction of the still dominant short-term up-trend. A break above 1.3581 would signal a bullish resumption and lead to a move up to the 1.3645 highs. Alternatively, given the weakness already shown today, there is also the possibility of a move back down to the range lows at 1.3484. The overall bullish bias, however, means more up-side is favoured eventually. https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Y9Q2Q9KNirA/Ulu3EniVAhI/AAAAAAAAGRQ/DJohk7VqPtA/w402-h365-no/EURUSD14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2013 GBP/USD: threatening a breakdown Cable's chart is looking interesting: the exchange rate has fallen to the bottom of its rising channel in an A-B-C correction. It is now testing this lower channel line. If it breaks through it, it would be a major bearish development with a target at 1.5505. A break below the 1.5913 lows would act as confirmation for such a move. There is also a head-and-shoulders pattern at the highs, augmenting the bearish outlook. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility of a recovery as long at the 1.5913 lows hold, and a we are still technically in a short-term up-trend. A move above 1.6000 would help confirm a bullish resumption with the next target at the 1.6050 level where the lower border of the multi-year triangle lies. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-AyyKiXBSNCo/UlvX1GgaOiI/AAAAAAAAGR4/Q49i0zoXTbk/w402-h365-no/GBPUSD14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted October 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2013 EUR/USD: pulling-back; resumption expected Eurodollar has broken above its trend-line but has failed to show more follow-through to the upside. It will probably will eventually go higher, however, since the bias remains to the up-side and the short-term trend is overall bullish. A move from here up to the 1.3650 highs is quite probable, especially since prices have pulled back into a crossroads of support at 1.3560, and the 1.3571 highs could be a good point to place a low risk long trade. A break below 1.3544 would be very bearish since it would mean a break of the trend-line, leading to a move down to a target at 1.3505. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-HdNrS7Nhn2A/Ul0K_ysA7VI/AAAAAAAAGSk/3FKl1Ep6H60/w402-h365-no/EURUSD15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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