joaquinmonfort Posted September 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2013 GBP/USD: up-trend resuming After correcting back to support from an important trend-line, the GBP/USD pair has surged higher today and has resumed its short-term up-trend. Price is further supported by the 200-day MA and monthly pivot at 1.5500. I can see this rally probably continuing to an eventual target at the 1.5722 highs. Although less likely, if there is a break below the neckline of a potential H&S top pattern at 1.5425, this could open up a stronger reversal down to the 1.5150s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2013 AUD/USD: possible resumption higher The pair has fallen and then rebounded off of the 0.8990 lows. The bounce is quite strong and has led to run up to 0.9013 so far. The reversal higher has been quite sudden and rapid – at least in the short-term. We have just reached resistance from the monthly pivot and the 4-hourly candlestick has formed a shooting star indicating possible exhaustion. Given the short-term down-trend remains dominant it may resume. Nevertheless the break above the down-sloping trend-line in the middle of August was a very bullish sign and introduces some doubt, and this latest spurt higher may the start of a resumption of the neglected up-trend with an eventual target in the 0.94s. Either is possible. A break above the 0.9013 highs would be required for confirmation of a continuation up to the next resistance level at 0.9115. On the other hand a decisive break below the 0.8990 lows could signal a continuation lower, with the S1 monthly pivot at 0.8755 providing a down-side target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2013 EUR/USD: continuing lower The new short-term down-trend continues making lower lows. It is now also attempting to break below support from the 50-day MA at 1.3185. It appears to be succeeding and will probably continue lower. There is, however, much support lying nearby, with the 200-day MA at 1.3140, and then after that to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3110. It is quite possible for the down-trend to continue, taking the pair down to anywhere within the range between these levels at around 1.3125 perhaps, and then pausing to consolidate. There are no signs of the short-term down-trend reversing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2013 USD/JPY: breaking higher The USD/JPY pair is recovering well and will probably continue higher. It has just rallied to back above the the major trend-line which it broke below at the beginning of August and has so far managed to remain above it although it is still too soon to say it has definitively re-broken above again. We have also had a strong bullish continuation pattern higher supporting the break. The pair broke above the short-term down-trend-line at 98.42 - another bullish sign – generating a target at 100.15, whilst the former highs at 101.38 provide another target higher. On bigger time frames we are still in a messy sideways move but overall, I'd say the short-term trend has now changed to 'up' again so a continuation higher is the most likely outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 EUR/USD: down-move continues Eurodollar continues to weaken although the pace of the fall has slackened off after reaching the the 200-day and 100-day MA's which are clustered together at 1.3135. It formed a long-wicked hammer on the hourly chart at the level of the MA's but failed to full-fill its potential and rise very much, forming instead a sideways consolidation. Once the sideways move has completed the dominant short-term down-trend should continue lower, probably falling to support at about 1.3110, where the 50% fib line is and the S1 monthly pivot, where there could be another consolidation or bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 GBP/USD: up-trend resuming No real change in the outlook for cable. The pair corrected back until it found support from the trend-line at 1.5460 where it reversed and began to resume its up-trend. It is still rising and is expected to continue rising higher, until it reaches an eventual target at the 1.5722 highs. There is little in the way of resistance above price action until the R2 weekly pivot at 1.5700. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 AUD/USD: touching H&S neckline The aussie has risen strongly and reached an important resistance line at 0.9165. This could be the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern which has formed across the length of the summer lows. If breached decisively it would be a strong bullish sign, generating an up-side target of 0.9590 and signalling a possible reversal of trend. There has already been a bullish break above the trend-line and move above the neckline would signal a reversal of trend. Ideally I would want to see a rise above 0.9232 for confirmation. There is also a chance the down-trend could resume, although there are no bearish signs from price action yet, which on the contrary looks bullish on most time-frames. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2013 EUR/USD: correction unfolding The EUR/USD pair is in a short-term down-trend which is currently consolidating at a strong level of support provided by the 200 and 100-day MA's; once it has finished correcting it will probably continue lower to the next target down at 1.3110. It pulled back to resistance yesterday at 1.3217 but then fell back down to its current level at 1.3175. The bullish candlesticks on Tuesday (a hammer) and yesterday's bullish engulfing indicate the possibility the correction will continue unfolding before the down-trend renews. Upside will probably be capped by resistance at the key 1.3217 level. A decisive break above that would be required to signal a more significant bullish reversal of the short-term trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2013 USD/JPY: advance continues The USD/JPY pair is now in a short-term up-trend after breaking back above the the major trend-line which it fell below at the beginning of August. It has also broken above the short-term down-trend-line at 98.42, enhancing the bullish outlook and generating a target at 100.15, which has now been mostly met. The pair will probably continue higher although up-side remains worryingly subdued, and much will depend on the outcome of the ADP employment data release today and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. Overall the outlook favours more dollar strength and further upside with the former highs at 101.38 comprising the next target up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2013 EUR/USD: down-trend intact The EUR/USD pair is in a strong short-term down-trend which is still intact and expected to continue lower, however, the Non-Farm Payrolls employment report released today may cause big moves in either direction. Currently prices are consolidating on support from the S1 monthly pivot and the 50% Fibonacci line at 1.3110 and oscillating between that and the range highs at 1.3140. Eventually the down-trend is expected to resume, however, with a move below 1.3100 providing bearish confirmation, and the next target down at the 1.3000 level. Although there are no signs yet of a bullish reversal it is nevertheless possible that a break higher above 1.3145, could signal a run up to resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3190. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2013 GBP/USD: pull-back in up-trend Cable is still rising and is expected to continue higher to an eventual target at 1.5722, however, it has shown some weakness recently and there is a chance it could pull-back to a trend-line at 1.5545 first, finding support there before resuming its up-trend. Today sees the release of Non-Farm Payrolls which potentially could cause a lot of market volatility, in either direction, although overall the consensus appears to be that the dollar will strengthen, which would mean a fall in the exchange rate back down to the trend-line or even the 200-day MA at 1.5500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2013 (edited) EUR/USD: pull-back in down-trend The EUR/USD pair has bounced off support from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3105 and has risen up to 1.3190, where the 50-day MA and the trend-line for the move down from the August highs are situated and provide resistance. The dominant short-term down-trend will probably resume and push the pair back down to 1.3110 again. An untidy price-pattern has developed at the lows although it is too early to say whether it will mark a reversal yet. However, I wouldn't rule out the possibility, and if there is a break above the trend-line, with a move above the 1.3190 highs providing confirmation, then it is possible we will see a further rally up to 1.3260 unfold. Edited September 9, 2013 by joaquinmonfort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2013 USD/JPY: up-trend recovers The USD/JPY pair is in a short-term up-trend. It fell rapidly on Friday after the release of Non-Farm Payrolls, piercing temporarily below the major trend-line at 99.00, although it recovered and ended the day slightly above. There has been a gap-up this morning and it will probably lead to a continuation higher, to an eventual up-side target up at the recent highs at 101.38, with a break above the 100.22 highs, giving useful confirmation and re-asserting the up-trend. Alternatively, and less likely, a break below the 98.53 lows would mark a possible change of the short-term trend to 'down', generating a target of 98.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2013 EUR/USD: substantial resistance reached The EUR/USD pair broke above its trend-line yesterday bringing into doubt the direction of the short-term trend. Price eventually reached 1.3260 at the level of the underside of a longer-term trend-line originating in April 2011, where there is also substantial resistance from a monthly pivot. It is possible we will see a rebound from this resistance and a move lower, in fact, it has already formed a small double top pattern and is falling to the next target at 1.3215. However, if there is a decisive break above the 1.3290 highs, there is a possibility of an extension higher to perhaps 1.3315 and then 1.3388. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2013 GBP/USD: at historic highs Cable's short-term up-trend resumed and it has now reached its target higher at 1.5722. This is a fairly strong resistance level as it has historically stopped price several times in the past, first in August and then in June, and it will probably block again, leading to a possible reversal of the short-term up-trend, however, there is insufficient evidence from price action yet. Therefore it is still possible the short-term up-trend could extend, if it can break above the 1.5750 highs it will probably reach the R1 monthly pivot at 1.5780, followed by a further continuation to 1.6050. Alternatively, given the significance of the current resistance level it's possible a down-trend could start, first to 1.5630, although I would be looking for a break below the – still far off - 1.5550 level for confirmation of a change of trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2013 AUD/USD: rallying after upside break The aussie has now broken out above the neckline of a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern and has started to rally quite strongly. It has risen above the 0.9232 highs confirming a higher low and a higher high and providing another indication of a change of trend. It will probably continue higher until reaches an eventual target at the the R2 monthly pivot at 0.9378. The strong bullish move has also generated a longer-term target at 0.9590. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2013 EUR/USD: up-trend probably resuming The EUR/USD pair has pulled back to fill the gap opened yesterday morning, and after almost filling it has now started to rise again. It is probably resuming the short-term up-trend which remains dominant. Now it will probably rally back up to the 1.3385 highs where the R1 monthly pivot is situated. A decisive break above 1.3400 would help confirm a clear break above the pivot and establish a fresh target at 1.3451. The pull-back could still fall to the trend-line at 1.3320 before the resumption higher; however, it would require a move below 1.3300 to interest bears. For chart: https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-tCl7aWvUPAk/UjgoISRbvbI/AAAAAAAAF3Y/7GJ859QEC9Q/w483-h438-no/EURUSD17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2013 USD/JPY: trend in doubt The breakdown out of the channel severely weakened the short-term up-trend. Price has recovered today, however, and reached the underside of the lower channel line, refilling Monday's gap. The up-trend may resume, with a move above the 99.35 highs providing bullish confirmation of re-entry into the channel, and 100.00 then targeted. For a definitive bearish signal I would be looking for a move below the 98.44 lows, which would then target the monthly pivot at 97.95, reversing peak and trough progression and the short-term trend; it would then be expected to eventually reach a target at 97.45, generated from the channel breakdown. If price closes today below the channel then it will enhance the bearishness of the chart, reinforcing the validity of the breakdown, and its down-target. Chart here: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1ftidYhh_SY/Ujg8dND9k0I/AAAAAAAAF38/qZ3JwCzT0ow/w483-h438-no/USDJPY17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2013 GBP/USD: approaching key 1.6000 level Cable pulled back to fill Monday's gap but then resumed its up-trend. It has now reached 1.5975 which is close to the upside target at 1.6000. The short-term up-trend is still intact and not showing any signs of weakness, however, impending tough resistance from the lower borderline of a large multi-year triangle at 1.6000 will probably lead to a pull-back, down to perhaps 1.5885. Today's FOMC could cause substantial volatility and lead to a run at 1.6000, and even a move above if the trend extends, although the R2 monthly pivot at 1.6055 is likely to limit further upside. A break below the 1.5885 would probably lead to a move down to 1.5777, as a small double top unfolds although upside currently still dominates. Chart here: https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-KY2V4Xu1DgM/UjmJFyEOwtI/AAAAAAAAF5c/bTh9uKemaZ0/w483-h438-no/GBPUSD18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2013 The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating in a short-term up-trend. Volatility has fallen ahead of the FOMC meeting this afternoon when it is expected the Fed will announce a tapering of asset purchases. The emphasis today, therefore, is fundamental and news driven, however, given the dominant up-trend and the gap up on Monday, further strength is the most likely outcome as the trend higher continues, first to 1.3488 where the R1 monthly pivot caps the highs, and then 1.3451. A spike lower looks less likely but if it happens then it will probably fall down to support at 1.3308 first and if stronger to 1.3275, where the 50-day MA is situated. Chart here: https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Bg6-Yxgthu4/Ujl1vEhfQEI/AAAAAAAAF4g/pIjQ4ry_Ats/w483-h438-no/EURUSD18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2013 EUR/USD: rallying strongly The EUR/USD pair has risen strongly after the FOMC yesterday. The short-term trend is up, has been reaffirmed and is expected to continue higher. Nevertheless price is currently pushing up against the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3559 and there is a the possibility of a pause or a pull-back first, with 1.3475 offering a potential end-target down. There is also the possibility the pair could simply break higher, however, and for the trend to continue up to perhaps 1.3667, where the R3 monthly pivot is situated. The R3 is rarely surpassed but if it is then 1.3710 level, where the old highs were situated, provides another major upside target too. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-op2Oiwh5FhA/UjrG7yQoQII/AAAAAAAAF6k/Xi29xhw9z-8/w483-h438-no/EURUSD19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2013 USD/JPY: bouncing after sell-off The USD/JPY pair is now in a short-term down-trend after the break below the 98.44 lows. The pair has recovered abruptly but it is expected to resume its down-trend soon and and reach the next target at an old trend-line at 97.25. It has just reached an important level at the down-sloping trend-line from the September 11 highs. There is a bearish shooting star forming on the 4-hour chart but it has not completed yet and would need another down-candle for confirmation. Nevertheless the current level presents an ideal place for the short-term bearish resumption to begin. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-XAZo1FW8Hwg/UjrmcP2cWZI/AAAAAAAAF7I/WBP2JLJSa6g/w483-h438-no/USDJPY19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating below pivot The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a sideways pattern within an up-trend. It will probably breakout and continue higher eventually. The R2 monthly pivot is situated above price and is preventing further upside, but a decisive break above the 1.3568 highs would indicate a move above R2 and a continuation higher up to the next target at 1.3667. There is the possibility of a pull-back to a down-target at 1.3455, and a small H&S pattern forming on the hourly chart, with a neckline at 1.3500; a decisive move below the neckline would give good confirmation of such a pull-back, however afterwards the dominant short-term up-trend would be expected to resume. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RB5Alnqj_3I/UjwN-a_ULAI/AAAAAAAAF70/SLs9RBq1I_E/w483-h438-no/EURUSD20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a sideways range. There seems little to add from Friday's analysis: the pair is in a short-term up-trend and will probably go higher. Currently its hitting resistance from the R2 monthly pivot above price, which is preventing further upside, but a decisive break above the 1.3568 highs would indicate a move higher up to the next target at 1.3667. There is the possibility of a pull-back to a down-target at 1.3455, although it would require a decisive break below the 1.3498 lows. Such a pull-back, however would probably be temporary, however, because afterwards the dominant short-term up-trend would probably resume. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-Ug4E9E8kPyc/UkAJyBP5WuI/AAAAAAAAF9s/g7b1eriA9U4/w461-h418-no/EURUSD23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted September 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2013 EUR/USD: pull-back in up-trend The EUR/USD has pulled back to 1.3480 where it now appears to be recovering and starting to rise again. The pair is in a short-term up-trend and will probably resume its bullish ascent if it hasn't already. The R2 monthly pivot lies above the highs at 1.3570 and is preventing further upside, but a decisive break above would indicate a probable continuation to the next target at 1.3667. There is also the possibility of a deeper correction unfolding to a down-target at 1.3455. Such a pull-back, would probably be temporary, however, because afterwards the dominant short-term up-trend would be likely to resume. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xTi4wBnoYWI/UkFUdI7mgaI/AAAAAAAAF_Y/GBRSylfseN8/w461-h418-no/EURUSD24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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