Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: mixed signals

 

The USD/JPY pair has recovered after yesterday's steep sell-off. Price is still below some major trend-lines which is bearish, but the long-wick daily hammer resting on the trend-line is a strongly bullish sign. The medium-to-long-term trend is up which increases the probability that a recovery is under-way. A decisive move above the monthly pivot at 97.00 would give strong bullish confirmation and might see the pair rally, at first to 97.90 where the trend-line is, and then if it breaks above to 100.40. Alternatively a break below the 95.00 hammer lows would be critical in dismissing the arguments for upside and might see the sell-off drive lower as bulls capitulate with an initial target at the monthly pivot at 93.67.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possibility of a correction

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the 1.3305 highs and has continued rallying. Things have got a little overstretched now, however, and ADX has reached an overbought level, indicating the possibility of a correction. This morning saw the beginnings of a breakdown with a shooting star on the hourly and bearish follow-through. It will perhaps fall to the trend-line roughly at the 1.3305 highs. A break below that trend-line would probably lead to a move down to a target at 1.3130. Alternatively, given the strength of the up-trend a recovery might see a move higher to the target at 1.3455.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction in up-trend

 

The overall trend for GBP/USD is still up but the exchange rate is bearishly trying to break below the trend-line and if it succeeds it will fall to a target at 1.5575. A move below that would then probably reach the monthly pivot at 1.5530. The short-term up-trend will probably resume, however, and a decisive break above the current 1.5700 highs and the 200-day MA would provide a strong bullish continuation signal, with the1.5960 level, where the lower border of the massive multi-month triangle in combination with the monthly pivot is situated, providing an ultimate upside target.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: testing trend-line

 

EUR/USD has been rising in a perfect channel. Today, however, it has fallen down to the lower border of the channel, threatening to breakout. If it breaks below the 1.3277 lows there will be a move down to a target at 1.3160. However, given the dominant up-trend it will probably rebound from this support and move back up to around the 1.3365 mark where the weekly pivot is situated. If it breaks above that then it will probably continue up to resistance at 1.3455, from the monthly pivot - not much higher and we get to a major trend-line at 1.3470.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidation in down-trend

 

The USD/JPY pair remains in a steep down-trend which will probably extend further until it eventually reaches its target at 90.50. Nevertheless, it has stopped falling today and there are signs a correction might take shape. A break above the trend-line directly above the current level of price action at 95.30-40 would confirm a break higher and a probable rally up to a target at 96.50. Afterwards, however, the down-trend would be expected to resume and reach the 90.50 lows.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible pennant forming

 

The EUR/USD is pressuring the lower border of its rising channel, currently threatening to breakout to the downside, however, given the dominant up-trend the probabilities favour a move higher. The consolidation could be seen as a pennant continuation pattern perhaps, and a decisive break above the range highs at 1.3390 would confirm a breakout higher and a probable move up to the monthly pivot at 1.3456. Alternatively, a move below the 1.3277 lows would probably indicate a move down to 1.3160.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: reaching range highs

 

The GBP/USD pair has reached the range highs at 1.5731 on the hourly chart. Given the strong short-term up-trend the odds favour a break-out higher, probably to as high as 1.5865 where there is major resistance from both the monthly pivot and the lower border of the multi-month triangle. It would require a decisive break above 1.5740 to signal such a continuation higher. Alternatively, resistance may hold and see the pair fall back down to the range lows at around 1.5585 as a possible broadening formation unfolds.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways move extends

 

The EUR/USD pair continues in a range-bound consolidation ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Price has just reached the lows at 1.3330 and will probably now rise back up to the range highs at 1.3380. The pattern is a possible pennant or a triangle, either way, given the now dominant up-trend we will probably see a break higher, with a move above the 1.3390 highs indicating a continuation up to the monthly pivot at 1.3457. Alternatively, a break below the 1.3277 lows would signal a bearish move down to 1.3160.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: Golden Cross (enhanced)

 

A Golden Cross has occurred on the daily chart of EUR/USD. This happens when the 50 MA crosses the 200 MA and when both MA's are pointing upwards. The Golden Cross is 'enhanced' by the fact that both MA's share a similar rate-of-change, and research I have carried out has shown that when this happens it often leads to signals with a higher probability success rate.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: upside break pausing

 

The EUR/USD pair broke out from the pennant and rallied a bit but has now fallen back down to the upper border line of the pattern where it is currently resting on support. It will probably bounce from this support level and continue higher fulfilling its strong up-side potential. An initial target would be the monthly pivot at 1.3457, which may be difficult to breach, however it will probably rise further with 1.3670 providing the next target. Markets are subdued ahead of the FOMC meeting today when there is likely to be much volatility. As far as downside goes – a break below 1.3277 would lead to a move down to 1.3160.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: broadening formation

 

The GBP/USD pair seems to be trading in what is probably a broadening formation. Currently it is trading at the 1.5570 lows of the pattern after a strong move down. It has started to bounce up and the most probable scenario is that we will now see a move back up to 1.5725 range highs. Alternatively, decisive break below 1.5525 would lead to a break-down out of the pattern and probably fall till support from the 50-day MA at 1.5400.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: continuation higher

 

The USD/JPY pair has risen strongly and broken through a down-sloping trend-line. It will probably carry on higher to the next level of resistance at about 98.90 which is the underside of the rising channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. From there it will be tested and will probably consolidate or fall. Currently there are no signs of weakness in the up-trend which is still moving higher and a break above 98.28 would confirm a continuation to the upside, however, a pull-back to support at 97.05 is also a possibility.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways move probable

 

EUR/USD has pulled back after falling steeply following the FOMC meeting. It seems to be rising in a sort of wedge pattern now after yesterday's better-than-expected PMI data led a recovery. Today's thin data means perhaps less volatility; however, we will probably see the wedge breakdown and re-touch the 1.3158 lows. The cluster of pivots at 1.3225 including the R1 monthly and weekly, however, provide tough support and could impede more downside. An old trend-line above prices at 1.3260 could provide resistance and we will probably see a sideways consolidation unfold in the space between. A break above 1.3254 would cancel that forecast and probably see the rebound extend higher, targeting 1.3385.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bullish reversal possible

 

Cable threatened to move lower out of the broadening formation pattern it was in but the hammer candlestick yesterday reversed the short-term down-trend temporarily. The thick jacket of support between 1.5400 and 1.5270 – made up of the 50-day, 100-day and 200-hour MA's as well as the monthly pivot at 1.5268 and the S2 and S3 weeklies underpins the hammer and stands in the way of further downside, indicating the overall tide is pointing up. It is quite possible after the strong Retail Sales data release that a reversal could take shape and a break above the 1.5529 highs would probably lead to an extension higher to perhaps 1.5595, and then possibly the 1.58s where the bottom line of the multi-month triangle is situated.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 50, 100. 200-day MA's supporting

 

Eurodollar has found support from the 50-day Moving Average at today's lows and it has rebounded. The support is so tough it will probably lead to a strong correction. Apart from the 50-day MA there is also the 100 and 200-day MA's at the same level. It is quite rare to find a situation where all three coincide. If price action shows a reversal, then a clean break above 1.3120 would add bullish confirmation and lead to a probable move up – first to resistance at 1.3160 and possibly higher. It would require a strong move below 1.3055 to decisively cut through the cluster of MA's, although there would not be far to go before reaching the monthly pivot at 1.3010, and then a major trend-line at 1.2995.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: signs of weakness

 

The USD/JPY pair is still rising and it could still continue higher with an eventual target at the underside of the previous rising channel as well as other resistance at 99.25 . However, there are now signs of weakness creeping in on the daily chart, which is forming a possible shooting-star candlestick - although the day is not over so the pattern is not yet fixed, nevertheless if it does then it might be the beginning of a resumption of the down-trend. The current correction could be an Elliot 4th wave, and after it ends we could get wave 5 back down towards the recent lows at 93.78. There is support from trend-lines at 97.50 and 97.05; and a decisive break below 96.90 would probably lead to a move down to a target at 95.50 initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: posible inverted H&S

 

The EUR/USD pair has formed a possible inverted head and shoulder's pattern at the well-supported lows. There are no less than 3 moving averages bunched together there including the 50, 100 and 200-day MA's. The neckline for the inverted H&S isn't really so clear but it is probably at around 1.3140, and so a decisive breach – perhaps above 1.3150 for safety – would lead to a run up to the pattern's target at 1.3210, which is also a level at which resistance begins to thicken from the monthly and weekly pivots, the 100-4hr and the 100-hr MA's and an old trend-line. We cannot ignore the possibility of a more bearish scenario developing given the strong previous down-trend, but I would want to see a break below 1.3115 – and then for real confirmation – follow-through below the the cluster of MA's at 1.3058; although downside is limited by support at 1.3010.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bounce extending

 

The GBP/USD has rebounded slightly after reaching the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous move. The bounce has probably broken above the down-sloping trend-line drawn from the June 17 highs, and this indicates a push higher with an upside target at - perhaps 1.5550. 'Elliot' wave patterns indicate the possibility that we could be starting a wave 5 higher up to the 1.5750 highs. For a more bearish outlook I would want to see a break below the 1.5342 lows, however several long MA's, including the 50-day at 1.5380 and the 100-day at 1.5320 are impeding downside progress – and even if broken there is support not far lower at 1.5268.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: MA's still supporting

 

The EUR/USD pair is still trading at the level of a dense cluster of MA's, including the 50, 100 and 200-day in the 1.3080s. The possible inverted H&S which formed yesterday never triggered and instead, after a succession of positive economic news releases out of the U.S we saw the passage of prices move lower again. It is currently threatening to break below support and has formed lower lows already. However, it has not completely broken through yet and I'd like to see a reasonably decisive break down below the 1.3058 level to give clearer confirmation the MA's has been breached and we are going lower. If we do, however, then the monthly pivot at 1.3010 stands in the way of deeper inroads as does the 1.3000 whole number. Alternatively, for a break higher I'd probably want to see the 1.3100 level broken on strength, opening the way up to a move higher to 1.3210.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidation at the highs

 

The USD/JPY pair is consolidating in what looks like a possible head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is well supported with the S1 monthly pivot and the 100-day MA at the same level. If we get a move below 97.00 that would help confirm a clear break down through the neckline, which would then lead to a fall to the downside target for the pattern at 95.30. Alternatively, its possible the H&S is merely a consolidation pattern, in which case a move above 98.05 initially, followed by a move above 98.26 to confirm, would indicate a probable cover rally higher, perhaps to resistance from an old trend-line at 99.25. With the short-term up-trend and the longer-term up-trend synchronizing, it improves the chances of a break higher.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line broken

 

The EUR/USD pair has formed a temporary bottom after poor growth data slowed the move down yesterday. Overnight the pair drifted higher, breaking up through a trend-line and this will probably lead to a rally higher to a target at 1.3085. Confirmation of such a move would be enhanced by a strong bullish candlestick pattern perhaps, or a move above the recent 1.3040 highs. Apart from the trend-line break, however, there are no other reversal signs – unless you count a hammer on the hourly chart - and it is possible that after this correction EUR/USD will fall back down again or consolidate. The psychological significance of 1.3000 is standing in the way of deeper penetration. At 1.2910 we get a major trend-line which would be expected to provide support; although a re-break of the 1.2984 lows on strength, would be necessary to confirm a move into the lower 1.29s.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: strong move underway

 

Cable has fallen heavily after the release of poor data. It has now reached substantial support from the monthly pivot and the S1 weekly pivot clustered together at 1.5275 and there is a possibility of consolidation. However, given the strength of the current down-trend it will probably resume in time and a decisive break beneath the brace of pivots and the lows at 1.5262, would lead to further downside, with the next target at the support and resistance level at 1.5155 – and then strong support at 1.5000. The alternative scenario would be a consolidation along the current level in between 1.5300 and 1.5260, and only a breaks above 1.5345 could incline me to a bullish point of view.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: signs of recovery

 

The EUR/USD is slowly channelling higher. A break above the next trend-line at 1.3065 would be a very bullish sign and could indicate the start of a reversal, however, the thick knot of Moving Averages consisting of the 50, 100 and 200-day MA's situated in-between 1.3070 and 1.3085 offer strong resistance. A break above these MA's at 1.3090 would open up a move higher to the upside target at 1.3175. There is a bullish harami marking the lows on the daily chart supporting a bullish view and potentially signalling a reversal. Today has been an up-day so far. However, resistance might hold a bit longer and we could initially see a move back down to the lower channel line at 1.3015, although it would require a decisive break below that to signal a deeper penetration to 1.2962.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: touching the 50-day MA

 

The USD/JPY pair continues to rise. It has just broken up through a trend-line and will probably now reach the next target higher at 99.42, although the 50-day MA at 99.20 could interrupt the climb temporarily. Another bullish sign includes a possible large inverted H&S at the lows, the neckline of which is just below the current price, indicating it may have been breached, or is in the process of being broken. This pattern has a target at the 103 highs. Overall a clear break above the 50-day would be critical, marking a major resumption of the bullish trend back up to the 103 highs (the target for the inverted H&S). Alternatively, a break below 98.20 could mark a breakdown and possibly cancel out the inverted H&S, resulting in a move down to 97.15.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuing sideways

 

EUR/USD is currently going sideways. trading within a consolidation range which will probably continue. It is rising inside that range, but the pace of the rise has slackened. If we get a break above the 1.3102 highs and the band of MA's in the 1.3080s – it would provide strong bullish confirmation of a breakout higher, although, upside could be limited by resistance at 1.3150, which provides the first target higher. Given strong recent bearish activity the down-trend could also resume and push the pair down to the range lows at 1.2990 as the consolidation continues to unfold. A decisive break of the lows, meanwhile, could see further weakness down to 1.2885.