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Can you be more specific with the settings? I put in 50 for the rsi cross and the indicator window goes blank. =/

 

 

Using a 10 pip take profit and a 15 pip stoploss and the 21 RSI cross of the 50 on the EUR/USD beginning on 7/30/12 through 8/8/12 I had 9 trades and no losses. The following is EST time.

7/30 2100, 7/31 0500, 8/1 0100, 8/1 1000, 8/2 0300, 8/2 0800, 8/3 0200, 8/6 0800, 8/8 1800. With the exception of the trade on 8/3 which gave me 64 pips the others were 10 each for a total of 144 pips on this one pair with zero losses. At the same time there were 7 winners and 2 losers on the EU/JP, 7 winners and 1 loser on the AU/US and 8 winners and 1 loser on the AU/JP. I netted a little over $3000.00 in 8 days. I am not trying to sell this thing because it is free but in a market like we are in now plus the fact it is August I am happy with almost $400 a day.

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Can you take a screenshot of one of your trades?

 

Btw, do you use any alert indicators?

Screenshot would not show trades. If you wish you can use any one of various alert indicators for EMA crosses. Arrows, sounds, etc. so you won't have to stare at your charts all day. I am a big fan of Forex Rebellion and in market conditions like we have every August I can double check an entry signal against my Rebellion entry technique, which is explained in other posts.

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Sorry to beat this into the dirt, but I'm sure you know how things can get "lost in translation" on forums, as it were. Could I trouble you for exactly the step-by-step methodology you are talking about? You mentioned the RSI set to 21 but nothing about the NT indicator. I'm looking at my chart trying to figure out exactly what you are looking for and how everything meshes together on a H1 chart and I'm just totally at a loss trying to figure it out. @-)

 

Absolutely. I have a simple mind and need to keep things simple. Too many indicators spoil the pot.
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Hi iqofgenius,

 

Thanks for sharing your results. By the way, do you set trailing stop loss beside using take profits of 10 pips and stoploss of 15 pips?

 

Regards

John Lui

 

 

This might be a simplistic ****** system but on the one hour chart it is almost impossible on a major pair to find a losing trade when the criteria of RSI crossing 50 and using a 10 pip take profit with a 15 pip stoploss. Check it out on some major pairs for yourself. I made over $600 in 2 days trading one lot at a time.
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I took a second look at this system by hand-checking a 60 min 24 hour 6E (Globex Euro Dollar) chart in eSignal.

 

One thing that a backtest in Amibroker cannot tell you from a general scan is whether price hit +10 pips on the bar after the signal bar before -15 pips got hit (apparently, it assumes the worst). But, in eSignal, I can easily drill down to a 1 min chart and tell which happened first.

 

There were some losers in the cited timespan of the winners which iqofgenius mentioned. From EST, the 0400 bar from 7/31 was a loser (the next bar was also a signal and that was the winner mentioned). The 2100 long on 8/6 was a loser. The 0300 long on 8/7 was a loser. Other losers past the prior post's last date were the 1000 long on 8/10, the 0100 short on 8/13 and the 0800 short on 8/14.

 

The good news is that I *am* seeing more winners that what my Amibroker scan found (which didn't try to drill down to the 1 min chart in certain instances).

 

I think the RSI is a red herring though (i.e., not necessary). I saw no significance in it as a decent filter. Just about all of the ema crossovers have the RSI 21 period between 45 and 55 anyway and, really, if you're sitting on 48 or 49 with a long signal from the crossover, I doubt 1-2 RSI points are going to throw out a significant portion of the bad trades.

 

All crossover systems are losers during times of lower volatility. Otherwise, we'd all be retired in a matter of 5 years. Right now, it's working with the +10 pip target and -15 pip stop. Tomorrow...who knows.

 

I offer this advice from 9 years of full-time futures day trading to those of you still trying to find your way:

 

High winning pct systems are dangerous for all but highly experienced traders. Because they generally require you to risk more than you can win on a per trade basis, and, if your avg winning pct drops below 67% for any appreciable amount of time, well, time to find a new line of work. They also require expert execution. The margin for error in execution is *very* small.

 

You are far, far better off looking for systems which have a winning pct between 35-50%. Those are the ones where you can withstand many more small losses relative to your winners but your winners can be 2x-4x those losses (before slippage and transaction fees). Those systems can do well in both trending and sideways markets, so long as you pick a nice volatile market (the CL [Crude futures] is probably the best example of this).

 

Based on my experience, of those who aren't micro-scalpers, I would say that the overwhelming majority of successful "at-home" day traders find that their winning pct averages out over the long-term (multiple years) in the 45%-50% area, winning about 1.5 to 1.8 times more than they lose, after slippage and transaction fees. It is no surprise that new traders are not attracted to these types of systems because they have an emotionally difficult time accepting a winning system which is less than 60%, let along <= 50%.

 

Trading will become a lot easier if you mentally and emotionally accept the following:

 

The winning pct and the payoff ratio (i.e., avg win / avg loss) have an inverse relationship. Do you think maintaining a 70%-80% winning pct is easier than maintaining a 35%-50% winning pct? An expert scalper may say, "Sure, no problem. I'm at least 70% the majority of the time." But there's the rub. You *have* to be above that magic 67% if you ever hope to be consistently profitable giving up more for a loser than you take on the winner.

 

I am not doubting the previous poster's claim of making $400 a day on average from a simple crossover system on an hourly currency chart now that I have taken a closer look from the eSignal data on the Globex 6E contract (i.e., EUR/USD pair in the Forex). All I can say as a warning is that strict mechanical systems like that can run very hot at times and then go completely cold on you and gobble up you accumulated profits at a much faster rate, given that you will risk more than you have to gain on a per trade basis.

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What a refreshing and honest posting. Not sure that lbf4223 is the most memorable of names but I shall certainly be following your postings.

 

I think the danger for many of us is that we all want quick scalping strategies. These can avoid the risk of trading while key news items are in play but you have to give up so much to the broker in any trade before you get in profit becasue the spread is proportionately so much more significant. Added to this is the fact that whether looking as EMA crossover, Stochastics or whatever, a trend or swing is already well on its way before we get into the trade so can easily run out of steam befoer hitting profit.

 

I would be interested lbf4223 to hear of the sytems you have found to work well?

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  • 3 weeks later...

Here is an EA based on RSI crossing. http://www.4shared.com/file/glmH_c-u/RSI_trader_v2.html Credit goes to fxautomated.com

If it is that simple, we are all millionaires. Some kind programmer may want to improve the EA by adding 5/12 EMA crossing.

 

Using a 10 pip take profit and a 15 pip stoploss and the 21 RSI cross of the 50 on the EUR/USD beginning on 7/30/12 through 8/8/12 I had 9 trades and no losses. The following is EST time.

7/30 2100, 7/31 0500, 8/1 0100, 8/1 1000, 8/2 0300, 8/2 0800, 8/3 0200, 8/6 0800, 8/8 1800. With the exception of the trade on 8/3 which gave me 64 pips the others were 10 each for a total of 144 pips on this one pair with zero losses. At the same time there were 7 winners and 2 losers on the EU/JP, 7 winners and 1 loser on the AU/US and 8 winners and 1 loser on the AU/JP. I netted a little over $3000.00 in 8 days. I am not trying to sell this thing because it is free but in a market like we are in now plus the fact it is August I am happy with almost $400 a day.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Using a 10 pip take profit and a 15 pip stoploss and the 21 RSI cross of the 50 on the EUR/USD beginning on 7/30/12 through 8/8/12 I had 9 trades and no losses. The following is EST time.

7/30 2100, 7/31 0500, 8/1 0100, 8/1 1000, 8/2 0300, 8/2 0800, 8/3 0200, 8/6 0800, 8/8 1800. With the exception of the trade on 8/3 which gave me 64 pips the others were 10 each for a total of 144 pips on this one pair with zero losses. At the same time there were 7 winners and 2 losers on the EU/JP, 7 winners and 1 loser on the AU/US and 8 winners and 1 loser on the AU/JP. I netted a little over $3000.00 in 8 days. I am not trying to sell this thing because it is free but in a market like we are in now plus the fact it is August I am happy with almost $400 a day.

 

iqofagenius I appreciate you contribution to the thread but did you take all the signals which met the entry criteria or did you filter them further. for some reason i can't seem to match some of your trades and there also seem to be some which met the entry criteria rules which you skipped.

 

for eg 6th aug you took the trade at 0800 but at that time the Ma's had not yet crossed, the crossed at close of the 0800 bar so if you took the trade at the begining gof the 0900 bar the trade would have been a loser

 

there seem to be many missed trades as well for eg on 6th aug itself the ma's crossed at the close of the 2100 bar and if you took the trade on the open of the 2200 bar it would have been a loser.

 

these are just two examples there are several others .... could you check these two again please?

 

Was there any other filter you used?

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Apparently on the 6th there was a wide spread with my broker due to a news event The entry at 2200 simply was not taken due to sleep requirements but the MA's were rather flat anyway and the RSI had been above for a long time and was actually going lower. There is always some judgment involved and actually in retrospect I simply got lucky on the 0900 trade because of a news event. Any time the RSI is above I will only consider longs so the apparent shorts would not be a consideration.
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Apparently on the 6th there was a wide spread with my broker due to a news event The entry at 2200 simply was not taken due to sleep requirements but the MA's were rather flat anyway and the RSI had been above for a long time and was actually going lower. There is always some judgment involved and actually in retrospect I simply got lucky on the 0900 trade because of a news event. Any time the RSI is above I will only consider longs so the apparent shorts would not be a consideration.

 

appreciate the clarification .... thx.

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