My price-action strategy

[fxfxfx]

Yep - I forgot to mention that...

 

A "FALSE breakout" always goes out of the boundaries just to continue the move to the opposite direction (Therefore "false" breakout).

Usually these setup is really good and should also give mostly a good R/R Ratio.

 

Regarding your question about weekend-gap:

 

Yes - you are right. But only the users who are watching this trade now are knowing this ;)

When users look ages later (Hopefully this thread will then still exist *g*) to this thread, it does not makes sense to close the trade in total (As they do not know that the weekend is coming).

 

Cheers

 

and thx for your contribution - It makes me always happy when I see students which are really thinking about it and also spend much time about what I have said and also were able to read "between the lines" when I say something :)

 

And when someone is asking questions - I know that he will take this all serious - And this is really a MUST to be successful.

 

Thx alright - and of course to you all who are reading this thread.

 

Have a nice weekend

 

Ok, got the idea now. You meant a false breakout on the upside. Everything makes sense now. Thanks for clarifying. :)

[fxfxfx]

Hi r326196,

 

Sorry for the late reply ;)

 

OK - so you will find below my chart of EURUSD

 

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/5599/70198238.jpg

Edited June 12, 2011 by fxfxfx

[izogrey]

Hi all of you,

 

Here it is my first trade ( still open ) on UC, using the ideas shared in this thread.

 

Reasons for the trade:

- daily trend UP;

- H4 trend changed to UP just before the weekend;

- on H4 there is a nice pinbar which shows us UP rejection on two cluster regions ( the middle and the lower ones ) - there was the place where some short traders were eliminated from the game ( or they changed their mind :-) );

- on H1 there was a down move, but the blue bar after it closed above the middle cluster region - this means it was a climactic down move, where the last shorters were eliminated.

 

All these reasons give an edge on the UP side.

 

So I thought that the upper cluster region, where the climactic down move started from, will be breaked out upward successfully, and also the distance till first stop up on H4 gave me a good RR ratio.

 

Speaking about RR ratio, I choose the SL position below the lower cluster region, because this region has been rejected upward two times on H1, and this means there are many buy orders there, so it should be a good support.

 

I didn't use the entry on 50% of H4 pinbar for two reasons:

1) if there is a trend change on H4, the first entry needs some more breathing space, so an entry on the upper region of the pinbar is more adequate;

2) I was outside at that moment, playing with the dog :-) :-) :-)

 

I post also the continuation of the move. As I post, price already breaked up above the weekend gap.

 

Please fxfxfx, give your comments about what's wrong or right.

 

Cheers

 

http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/2452/uctradesetuph4.jpg

 

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/2452/uctradesetuph1.jpg

 

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3610/uch1cont1.jpg

 

 

UPDATE: Took 50% profit 25 pips at the last HH, SL on remaining 50% moved at about BE ( -3 pips ). Reason of the operation: FF Calendar => President Obama speaks.

SL hit, so +22 pips from this trade.

Edited June 13, 2011 by izogrey

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Cool =D>

 

You must have analyzed my last few analyses very deeply ;)

 

Place of PIN-Bar was good - also the PIN-Bar looked good ;)

Trend was in your favour and pin-bar occured in an up-trend and you have PA-confluence.

 

The only thing that I saw in an other way was the current market-situation.

H4 is currently in a SIDEWAYS-STATE or looks like a triangle or a FLAG -> Or all combined ;).

 

If price does NOT move outside the SIDEWAYS-Market and retraces back, the move will not have that much power.

 

In this case the better entry-option would have been the 50%-Entry.

 

If you did it this way you would already be in profit 2% and even when your 2nd position fails, the worst case would be 2%-1%=1% gain.

 

Sorry for the late reply, but in Austria was today holiday and I spend my time with my familly :)

 

Thx you izogrey for your great contribution. The only thing what you can do now is to sit it out until the price hit the profit or hit your SL ...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Hi all of you,

 

Here it is my first trade ( still open ) on UC, using the ideas shared in this thread.

 

Reasons for the trade:

- daily trend UP;

- H4 trend changed to UP just before the weekend;

- on H4 there is a nice pinbar which shows us UP rejection on two cluster regions ( the middle and the lower ones ) - there was the place where some short traders were eliminated from the game ( or they changed their mind :-) );

- on H1 there was a down move, but the blue bar after it closed above the middle cluster region - this means it was a climactic down move, where the last shorters were eliminated.

 

All these reasons give an edge on the UP side.

 

So I thought that the upper cluster region, where the climactic down move started from, will be breaked out upward successfully, and also the distance till first stop up on H4 gave me a good RR ratio.

 

Speaking about RR ratio, I choose the SL position below the lower cluster region, because this region has been rejected upward two times on H1, and this means there are many buy orders there, so it should be a good support.

 

I didn't use the entry on 50% of H4 pinbar for two reasons:

1) if there is a trend change on H4, the first entry needs some more breathing space, so an entry on the upper region of the pinbar is more adequate;

2) I was outside at that moment, playing with the dog :-) :-) :-)

 

I post also the continuation of the move. As I post, price already breaked up above the weekend gap.

 

Please fxfxfx, give your comments about what's wrong or right.

 

Cheers

 

http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/2452/uctradesetuph4.jpg

 

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/2452/uctradesetuph1.jpg

 

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3610/uch1cont1.jpg

 

 

UPDATE: Took 50% profit 25 pips at the last HH, SL on remaining 50% moved at about BE ( -3 pips ). Reason of the operation: FF Calendar => President Obama speaks.

SL hit, so +22 pips from this trade.

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Saw your update too late :(

Did not recognized that you already took a little profit and moved SL to break-even.

 

Wow !

Beside the fact that you traded it in a sideways-market -> Hats off :)

You also managed to babysit the trade and apply your own trade-management -> Again: Wow

 

But please be aware -> Look always first if the currency moves upwards, downwards or sideways.

 

When sideways -> Conservative (50% Entry,...) and TP to the last high/low -> When price made his first breakout and retraces to the area of sideways market (which is NORMAL -> Price wants to re-test these levels) -> Go for a BIG move!

 

izogrey - I think you are not far away from trading this PA-Strategy and understand it.

 

=D>

 

Hi izogrey,

 

Cool =D>

 

You must have analyzed my last few analyses very deeply ;)

 

Place of PIN-Bar was good - also the PIN-Bar looked good ;)

Trend was in your favour and pin-bar occured in an up-trend and you have PA-confluence.

 

The only thing that I saw in an other way was the current market-situation.

H4 is currently in a SIDEWAYS-STATE or looks like a triangle or a FLAG -> Or all combined ;).

 

If price does NOT move outside the SIDEWAYS-Market and retraces back, the move will not have that much power.

 

In this case the better entry-option would have been the 50%-Entry.

 

If you did it this way you would already be in profit 2% and even when your 2nd position fails, the worst case would be 2%-1%=1% gain.

 

Sorry for the late reply, but in Austria was today holiday and I spend my time with my familly :)

 

Thx you izogrey for your great contribution. The only thing what you can do now is to sit it out until the price hit the profit or hit your SL ...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi,

 

Price retraced now and if price closes 1.4475-Area we would definitively be in an up-trend -> Then wait for a re-trace to the "power-areas" and wait for reversal-patterns ;)

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Hi r326196,

 

Sorry for the late reply ;)

 

OK - so you will find below my chart of EURUSD

 

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3719/eurusdwarmap.gif' alt='eurusdwarmap.gif'>

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

 

I know it looks a little bit messy, but this is only a "helper-chart". Basically this charts is a collection of ALL TIMEFRAMES.

 

They are color coded:

RED->MONTHLY

ORANGE->WEEKLY

YELLOW->DAILY

WHITE->4-HOURLY

 

Also the direction is coded:

solid lines: down-trend

dotted lines: up-trend

 

So let's analyze it:

DAILY Trend is: UP

4-Houry Trend is: DOWN

 

I only trade in the direction of the ACTUAL Trend - Although it is much safer to have the higher time-frame aligned - I personally give the ACTUAL Trend the most focus.

 

I personally would NOT trade a bounce UPWARDS of the 1.43485 - level as our actual trend is DOWN.

 

Let me show you some scenarios how I would trade it:

 

* Wait for a break THROUGH this level to the DOWNSIDE and then trade the retracement-move to this level DOWNWARDS -> Then I would again trade with the trend.

 

* Wait for a break THROUGH this level to the DOWNSIDE and maybe the trend of the 4-hourly will change to BULLISH -> Then we would have the Trend of ALL (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4-hourly) aligned. Wait for a break of this level to the UP-SIDE and then price eventually re-traces back again -> Then trade this level LONG (With trend of all timeframes aligned)

 

* Trade with the actual trend and trade the bounce (SHORT) of the 1.4420-Level as it is not tested until now and it would also be WITH the ACTUAL TREND.

 

The first and the last ones are NOT my preferred method as TREND OF CHANGE is already quite far away -> If you would play the first or last method you must definitively babysit the trade.

 

Just a few words regarding my chart handling.

 

I have for every currency-pair a Profile.

In every profile I have a chart in these time-frames:

MONTHLY

WEEKLY

DAILY

4-HOURLY

All lines are drawn in their time frames.

Here you will find a cool tool to "save" and "load" all objects.

http://www.fxorg.org/DownloadMtSaveLoadObjects.aspx

 

When I am finished with my drawings I finally create a "helper-chart" (4-hourly).

I then navigate to the monthly chart and save all the objects

Then I move to the "helper-chart" and load all objects.

Then I move to the weekly chart and save all objects.

Then I move to the "helper chart" and load all objects.

I do this also for the rest of the timeframes...

I think you got the idea behind this ;)

 

One side-note to this tool:

To save all objects -> This is no problem

When you want to load objects, you must create on the chart at least 1 item and only then you are able to load all the objects (As I am not the author of this script - I do not know why this is the case).

I usually put a text object on the chart -> Load all objects and then remove the text object again from the chart

 

I assigned STRG+S to the SAVE-SCRIPT and

STRG+L to the LOAD-SCRIPT

 

Usually I update the monthly charts every few months, the weekly every few weeks, the daily once a week and the 4-hourly 1-2 times a day.

 

Hope this helps

 

If you have any questions regarding my thoughts -> Please write a short post

 

Thx for your great contribution,

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 14, 2011 by fxfxfx

[nnn123]

Hi 3fx,

 

I hope all is well with you.

[fxfxfx]

Hi nnn123,

 

Thx for asking -> Everything is OK.

We have Win7-Migration this week in the company where I am working -> So: Lot to do ;) and besides this I also trade ;)

 

Be sure: Next Lesson(s) will follow...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Hi 3fx,

 

I hope all is well with you.

[grooter]

I will also be busy until next week... hope I won't miss too many of your lessons. Good luck with win7 migration :-)

For now just using the hi/low+fib lines confluence has proven quite helpful! Thanks a lot.

[fxfxfx]

Candlestick-Pattern:PIN-BAR

 

The PIN-BAR candlestick-pattern

 

Hi folks,

 

I have now a little bit of time - so I will continue with the stuff.

 

So I will explain to you what a PIN-BAR is:

 

A PIN-BAR is a bar where then Open AND Close are at the upper third of the candle OR Open AND Close are at the lower third of the candle - So to say a small body with a very long wick:

 

PIN-BARS must always be traded in the OPPOSITE direction of the long wick !

 

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Candlestick-Pattern: Inside BAR

 

The next candlestick-formation is the inside-bar.

 

This is a formation of AT LEAST 2 candles.

 

1 OUTSIDE-BAR (which totally engulfs at least the next candle)

1 or more INSIDE-BARS

 

Entry is the HIGH or LOW of the OUTSIDE-BAR

 

In fact EVERY INSIDE-BAR is a Triangle (which is also known as a Breakout-Pattern).

Find some inside-bars, mark them and switch to 1 or 2 time-frames lower -> You may be surprised that all are triangles ;)

 

A picture says more than thousand words:

 

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Candlestick-Pattern: Fake-Breakout

 

Next one is the fake-breakout Candlestick-Formation:

 

A fake-breakout starts with an OUTSIDE-BAR followed by at least one INSIDE-BAR - then a candle which has a higher high than the OUTSIDE-BAR or a lower low than the OUTSIDE-BAR, but closed INSIDE the OUTSIDE-BAR. This formation must always be traded to the other side than the breakout happened (therefore the name "fake"-breakout *g*).

 

Here is the pic:

 

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/8683/fakebreakout.gif' alt='fakebreakout.gif'>

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

 

The first bar is the OUTSIDE-BAR. The second and third candle are both inside-bars. The third bar is the FAKE-BREAKOUT-BAR. It has a higher high, but closed inside the range of the OUTSIDE-BAR. Trade-Direction would be SHORT.

 

And here a chart where I marked a few of the fake-breakouts:

 

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/4226/markedfakebreakout.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Candlestick-Pattern: TWO-BAR-PIN

 

The last formation is the TWO-BAR-PIN (which is in fact just a PIN-BAR, but instead of 1 candle it is spread in 2 candles)

 

Some also call this railroad-pattern.

 

Could you remember my definition of a pin-bar ?

Just extend this instead of 1 bar to 2 bars:

 

Open AND Close of two bars must be in the upper third of the two bars or Open AND Close of two bars must be in the lower third of the two bars (When you overlay these 2 bars you will get a 1 PIN-Bar).

 

Here a pic:

 

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Next homework

 

So...

 

And now the next homework ;)

 

Open a chart and find PIN-BARS and mark them.

 

Open a chart and find INSIDE-BARS and mark them.

 

Open a chart and find FAKE-BREAKOUT-patterns and mark them.

 

Open a chart and find TWO-BAR-PIN-patterns and mark them.

 

You can upload them separately - It is not needed to mark all of them on one and the same chart -> For every candlestick-pattern you can use different charts ;)

 

If you have any questions regarding the patterns, feel free to ask...

 

Hope to see lots of pics now :)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Important !!!

 

These candlestick-patterns traded alone are NOT profitable !

They MUST be located at an area of S/R and/or at an area at S/R with confluence with other Price-Action-Elements and the trend of the time-frame where you want to trade PLUS the trend of one time-frame above MUST be aligned and it must be only traded in the direction of the trend !

 

I also do NOT trade S/R-Areas alone -> I always need one of these candlestick-patterns in place (Or a pivot-point - But I do not want to go into detail about pivot-points as these would be a chapter of its own ;) ) !

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[rvoiz]

Hi fxfxfx

 

i got a question: do you get up in the middle of the night to watch every candle that is built?

[fxfxfx]

Hi rvoiz

 

No - I do not get up in the middle of the night (hey mate - I am a lazy guy with limited time to trade *g*) ;)

 

In fact I am so lazy that I programmed an indicator which sends me an e-mail when one of these patterns occurs.

This indicator also sends a pre-notification (I set it to 45 mins.)

So I will get a pre-notification 45 minutes before the time-frame ends and a "confirmation" e-mail when the setup is 100% verified (At the end of the time-frame).

 

The 45 minute pre-alarm gives me plenty much of time to re-act (Even when I am NOT sitting in front of my computer) ;)

 

I will also share this indicator - But only AFTER the homework is done. You must be able to detect these patterns even without this indictor (What if you want to trade other stuff like soy-beans, oil, stocks, indices... where no Metatrader is available).

 

So - You will get the present, but only when your homework is done...

 

Please: You are free to use this indicator - but I do not want that this indicator will be finally copied and re-sold at ebay as it took me plenty much of time to program this indicator (although I am not a programmer - so you could imagine how long it took... Also the indicator is not 100% finished and the code looks terrible)

 

I am happy to live in Austria which has GMT+1 :)

 

When NY closes it is 11pm in Vienna -> After NY-close you will see only less volatility on the charts -> So: nothing interesting.

I start my trading-day at 7-8 am where the EUR-session is already open for about 1 hour or so... - Anyway: I can not change this... If I missed opportunities -> I missed them... -> You must get the correct mindset to accept this fact: If you are unsure about a setup -> Skip it -> The next will surely follow ;)

If you have no time for a day -> Skip the day -> The next setup will surely follow ;)

If you missed a good setup -> Do not worry -> The next setup will sureley follow ;)

And also often the market will give you a 2nd chance for a re-entry or the market moved not that much of the 4-hourly candle so that you still have a chance to jump in...

 

But what I surely do is:

At the beginning/end of my (trading)day I update my charts (Which takes 5 minutes maximum) !

 

Hope this helps...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Hi fxfxfx

 

i got a question: do you get up in the middle of the night to watch every candle that is built?

Edited June 18, 2011 by fxfxfx

[rvoiz]

here is my homework, i hope it is correct

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/35/unbenannt1hn.jpg/

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/5791/unbenannt1hn.jpg

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[fxfxfx]

Wow - total correct: 1A

And you also marked them on 1 chart -> Good work

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

here is my homework, i hope it is correct

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/35/unbenannt1hn.jpg/

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/5791/unbenannt1hn.jpg

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Edited June 19, 2011 by fxfxfx

[izogrey]

My homework on UC:

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/2282/ucpatterns.jpg

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Good work !

 

I think you must have now all information to trade successful :)

 

All elements of my system are now revealed ;)

 

My last chapter will then only summarize everything and bring it into one common context.

 

Gr8 work ...

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

My homework on UC:

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/2282/ucpatterns.jpg

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

I allowed myself to analyze your chart ;)

 

I assume that the vertical lines are S/R-Lines ??? (Hopefully)

 

I looked at the daily chart and saw that during this period the daily-trend was UP -> So I only take trades when the 4-hourly is UP (So to say aligned with the daily-timeframe).

 

I circled the UP-Setups with a white circle... The only exception where I took a trade against the alignment was the PIN-BAR at the double-bottom as these kind of setups are so strong that they can change the trend.

 

All others I would have been skipped from my side (They anyway would not got triggered).

Entry-Bar at inside-bar is always the boundary of the outside-bar. SL is half of the Outside-bar. TP is RR of 1:2

 

EVERY SINGLE Setup would be SUCCESSFUL !!! NO Single loosing trade - So you have drawn very good lines ;)

 

[izogrey]

Hi izogrey,

 

I allowed myself to analyze your chart ;)

 

I assume that the vertical lines are S/R-Lines ??? (Hopefully)

 

I looked at the daily chart and saw that during this period the daily-trend was UP -> So I only take trades when the 4-hourly is UP (So to say aligned with the daily-timeframe).

 

I circled the UP-Setups with a white circle... The only exception where I took a trade against the alignment was the PIN-BAR at the double-bottom as these kind of setups are so strong that they can change the trend.

 

All others I would have been skipped from my side (They anyway would not got triggered).

Entry-Bar at inside-bar is always the boundary of the outside-bar. SL is half of the Outside-bar. TP is RR of 1:2

 

EVERY SINGLE Setup would be SUCCESSFUL !!! NO Single loosing trade - So you have drawn very good lines ;)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

 

Hi fxfxfx,

 

Thanks a lot for your comments.

 

Yes, after making the homeworks proposed by you, I can draw good SR lines :-) . Anyway, tomorrow morning I will reanalyse them as part of daily routine.

 

I just have two questions:

 

1) Do you trade inside bar pattern on a simple breakout basis - put an order at the boundary of the outside bar with its SL at half the outside bar and wait for the breakout ? Or there is another way in which you manage the entry ?

 

2) Can you locate the exception against the alignment ( pin bar at double bottom ) ? I cannot find it on the chart ...

 

Cheers

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

1) I put always a buy-stop or sell-stop order with pre-defined SL -> So to say on a breakout-basis ;)

2) I mean the PIN-BAR at the last setup ... Price-Level 0.9680. At least at my chart a bottom has build then price moved a little bit upwards (1 BAR went upwards) and then a PIN-BAR which broke the bottom to the downside and was rejected to the upside...

 

Just for information: I trade all setups as bounce of the retracement and not the continuation -> So: Price must always retrace and then I make my order to the opposite... - The candle-formation itself I trade as a breakout...

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi fxfxfx,

 

Thanks a lot for your comments.

 

Yes, after making the homeworks proposed by you, I can draw good SR lines :-) . Anyway, tomorrow morning I will reanalyse them as part of daily routine.

 

I just have two questions:

 

1) Do you trade inside bar pattern on a simple breakout basis - put an order at the boundary of the outside bar with its SL at half the outside bar and wait for the breakout ? Or there is another way in which you manage the entry ?

 

2) Can you locate the exception against the alignment ( pin bar at double bottom ) ? I cannot find it on the chart ...

 

Cheers

Edited June 20, 2011 by fxfxfx

[crips]

Here is my homework to find Candlesticks Patterns.

 

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/6907/eu4hpachartwithfibsandc.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

Regards

 

Crips