My price-action strategy

[danyalati]

I hope you are not in a hurry to make money ;)

 

That quote just calmed me down. Thanks for the reassurance to profitabilty. One of the article at Nial Fuller's website talk about leaning a system 100% instead of just giving it a try and moving onto another. I think I have been jumping systems.

Look forward to more teaching material!

[fxfxfx]

Hi danyalati,

 

I will try to describe here the stages of a trader (At least it was so in my case).

 

Stage 1: You have no clue ... You start to google or look into FX-forums

Stage 2: You think you got it -> You got some information from the internet with basics and also some indicators and also some kind of EAs

Stage 3: You start using indicators and EAs

Stage 4: You are frustrated because you nearly tried every indicator or EA

Stage 5: You have no clue ...

Stage 6: You re-think your situation and come to the conclusio to use your brain and seek for systems which makes sense

Stage 6: You realize that price is the key

Stage 7: You start to seek for price-action systems

Stage 8: You have no clue

Stage 9: After reading and reading all the price-action stuff you find out that price-action is the key for the system but you have to bring it all together and you must find out the relationship between the things. You organize yourself.

Stage 10: You do it

 

Hope this helps.

 

That quote just calmed me down. Thanks for the reassurance to profitabilty. One of the article at Nial Fuller's website talk about leaning a system 100% instead of just giving it a try and moving onto another. I think I have been jumping systems.

Look forward to more teaching material!

[fxfxfx]

Hi danyalati,

 

1A ;)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Am I late to the party? Hopefully there lots more fun to be had.

 

I really appreciate how fxfxfx gave us homework. Normally I would just read through the whole thing and expect myself to do the whole method after just reading it once. I likde the idea of exercises

 

OK, I chose USDJPY, first exercise is easy

http://i52.tinypic.com/1sk1oh.gif

 

Swing high and Swing Lows. Rignt now we are in a downtrend

http://i55.tinypic.com/29qfwgn.gif

 

I had trouble with this. Please If I am wrong please correct me. I say we are in a downtrend on daily.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2z8ud6v.gif

[nnn123]

Hi 3fx,

 

This is a good thread. I have subscribed to this thread.

 

This is what I have drawn, can you please have a look and let me know your views. Thanks.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z6KY

[fxfxfx]

Hi nnn123,

 

S/R looks good :)

 

But what confuses me are the swings -> Look at the choppy area at the left -> I see that there are inside this choppy are some mini-trends...

And also after the breakout (your 1st blue line) there comes a re-tracement -> I would also color this blue as this is a retracement and the trend is still up...

 

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307523951-clip-35kb.png?nocache=1

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Hi 3fx,

 

This is a good thread. I have subscribed to this thread.

 

This is what I have drawn, can you please have a look and let me know your views. Thanks.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z6KY

[crips]

hey fxfxfx

 

Can we expect new exercises today?

 

Regards

 

Crips

[fxfxfx]

Yep :)

 

Be prepared ;)

 

hey fxfxfx

 

Can we expect new exercises today?

 

Regards

 

Crips

[nnn123]

Hi 3fx,

 

Thanks for this thread. I have subscribed to it.

 

I have attached my daily chart as well.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z7MM

 

Please have a look and let me know.

 

Thanks for your help.

[nnn123]

Hi 3fx,

 

My bad, I am lazy by nature but I am working on that. I used zigzag, but you realised that.

 

Anyway, I left the earlier lines as they were and have added the new ones as yellow.

 

Is this how I need to plot?

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8aQ

 

The left side

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8cC

 

And finally, Same chart, scrunched to show the rangebound to the left.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8d3

 

Please let me know if I have not done it correctly.

 

I also add the daily with the similar changes as above.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8hn

 

Now, I Am a bit confused as I do not know if H4 is uptrend or downtrend. Looking at Blue, it is in an uptrend. Based on Yellow, it is in a downtrend.

 

Thanks for your help.

Edited June 8, 2011 by nnn123
Add extra info.

[fxfxfx]

Hi nnn123,

 

cool !

 

You are one step ahead -> This lesson will come later ;)

 

Did you see how price reacted once price went outside the boundaries of the sideways market ? Breakout -> Pullback to the EXACT LEVEL of the outer boundary and then took off to north ? ;)

 

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307531839-clip-30kb.png?nocache=1

 

Thx for the great work ! Not only to you - of course also to the others !

It is really cool to see a place where people are willing to learn/work and help others :)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Hi 3fx,

 

Thanks for this thread. I have subscribed to it.

 

I have attached my daily chart as well.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z7MM

 

Please have a look and let me know.

 

Thanks for your help.

[fxfxfx]

Hi nnn123,

 

looks good to me ;) As far as you know which is the zigzag and which are yours it's fine ;)

 

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534447-clip-35kb.png?nocache=1

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534619-clip-29kb.png?nocache=1

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534661-clip-33kb.png?nocache=1

 

 

 

Hi 3fx,

 

My bad, I am lazy by nature but I am working on that. I used zigzag, but you realised that.

 

Anyway, I left the earlier lines as they were and have added the new ones as yellow.

 

Is this how I need to plot?

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8aQ

 

The left side

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8cC

 

And finally, Same chart, scrunched to show the rangebound to the left.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8d3

 

Please let me know if I have not done it correctly.

 

Thanks.

[fxfxfx]

Little tip: horizontal trendlines

 

Hi folks,

 

as far as I can see some people do not know how to make the trendlines 100% horizontal

 

Make a double-click at the trendline that there will be 3 small squares -> so now they are selected. Then right-click at the trendline -> A context-menu will appear -> Choose "Trendline Properties" -> Switch to the "Parameters"-tab -> Copy the content of the 1st field "Value" to the 2nd field "Value" and finally click the "OK"-Button.

Now they should be 100% horizontal ;)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Another little tip

 

Hi folks,

 

Some people maybe have problems to "detect" these swings.

 

Here a little tip:

 

*) Use the zig-zag indicator

*) Use the fractals - indicator

 

They are both "build-in" indicators of every MT4 Platform.

 

Hope this helps

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 8, 2011 by fxfxfx

[izogrey]

Hi there 3fx and people,

 

 

I had a bunch of busy hours today at job, so no chance to open MT4.

 

Anyway I just want to show you an update on UC based on the analyse from yesterday. Look how fine was the "Change of trend" line ( it's the same line I put there yesterday, I didn't move it, I swear :-) ). Here I have a question to 3fx: if a trade shoud be taken at "Breakout level", targeting at the high of the big long candle, where would be the SL ? I'm pointing the R:R ratio here......

 

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

And, because it's so boooooooooring to watch just one pair, I took also AUDUSD on the table.

 

Daily : DOWN ( even if the pressure is up, but this pressure hasn't any consequence on the close of daily candles )

 

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6636/aud1levels.jpg

 

H4: DOWN ( aligned with daily ). Look how good was the "First stop" line ( I drew it this morning, when the price were at the pink hand, just some pips below the breakout level so no lines-fitting here also :-) )

 

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3105/auh4levels.jpg

 

 

3fx, please correct if something is wrong, and also just tell me if posting updates is right or wrong for you.

 

 

Cheers@all

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Analysis is really good and updated charts with swings and trend-direction is also correct (As expected) :)

 

Regarding the setup:

I would never take a trade with a "potential" Risk/Reward-Ratio lower than 1:2 - 1:4 ! But you sharply recognized if you would went short that the R:R would be bad :)

 

I know - I mentioned in earlier post the word "breakout" - But I NEVER trade a breakout directly -> I trade the PULLBACK ! But you will see this all packed in one in a later post -> But for now it is important that you understand how the market moves, to be able to determine the trend and to know where price will probably stall or reverse ;)

 

Thx for your good work !

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

No problem with updating - In fact this is one of the most important things you have to learn !

You all will not do this for me - You all do your analysis for YOU ;)

 

And if you want to be successful you have to update all the things on a regular basis. It is not a must to update all the stuff here - but you prove yourself that you would be able to do this on a regular basis (so to say: You test yourself) ;)

 

 

 

Hi there 3fx and people,

 

 

I had a bunch of busy hours today at job, so no chance to open MT4.

 

Anyway I just want to show you an update on UC based on the analyse from yesterday. Look how fine was the "Change of trend" line ( it's the same line I put there yesterday, I didn't move it, I swear :-) ). Here I have a question to 3fx: if a trade shoud be taken at "Breakout level", targeting at the high of the big long candle, where would be the SL ? I'm pointing the R:R ratio here......

 

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

And, because it's so boooooooooring to watch just one pair, I took also AUDUSD on the table.

 

Daily : DOWN ( even if the pressure is up, but this pressure hasn't any consequence on the close of daily candles )

 

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6636/aud1levels.jpg

 

H4: DOWN ( aligned with daily ). Look how good was the "First stop" line ( I drew it this morning, when the price were at the pink hand, just some pips below the breakout level so no lines-fitting here also :-) )

 

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3105/auh4levels.jpg

 

 

3fx, please correct if something is wrong, and also just tell me if posting updates is right or wrong for you.

 

 

Cheers@all

Edited June 9, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Can you see now that you can predict (at a certain degree) the price-movement IN ADVANCE ?

You proved it yourself because you drew the lines IN THE PAST and price reacted as predicted IN THE FUTURE !

You surely would be able now to predict price much better than with ANY INDICATOR - and all with simple ****** horizontal lines !

What we did until now is to prepare for the battle and we drew basically our war-plan ;)

 

More will follow...

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Sorry guys,

I was very busy today and really only had rarely time to maintain this thread - May you will get the next lesson today - But I can not guarantee it to you for 100% :(

 

So: No bad feelings if you do not get any lessons/homeworks for today ...

 

Hi there 3fx and people,

 

 

I had a bunch of busy hours today at job, so no chance to open MT4.

 

Anyway I just want to show you an update on UC based on the analyse from yesterday. Look how fine was the "Change of trend" line ( it's the same line I put there yesterday, I didn't move it, I swear :-) ). Here I have a question to 3fx: if a trade shoud be taken at "Breakout level", targeting at the high of the big long candle, where would be the SL ? I'm pointing the R:R ratio here......

 

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

And, because it's so boooooooooring to watch just one pair, I took also AUDUSD on the table.

 

Daily : DOWN ( even if the pressure is up, but this pressure hasn't any consequence on the close of daily candles )

 

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6636/aud1levels.jpg

 

H4: DOWN ( aligned with daily ). Look how good was the "First stop" line ( I drew it this morning, when the price were at the pink hand, just some pips below the breakout level so no lines-fitting here also :-) )

 

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3105/auh4levels.jpg

 

 

3fx, please correct if something is wrong, and also just tell me if posting updates is right or wrong for you.

 

 

Cheers@all

[fxfxfx]

Hi folks,

 

Next homework ;)

 

Please draw the fib-level from the last swing low to the top of the swing if you are in an uptrend or from the last swing high to the bottom of the swing if you are in a down-trend.

 

Find then levels where fib-levels are in confluence with S/R-Lines.

 

Find attached as example EURUSD Daily:

 

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/309/eurusdfibconfluence.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 8, 2011 by fxfxfx

[danyalati]

Which of these two would be more appropiate?

 

My eyes agree more with the frist picture, however the second ones abides by the rules.

 

http://i51.tinypic.com/oko5mf.gif

http://i55.tinypic.com/20z18uf.gif

Edited June 9, 2011 by danyalati

[alright]

Here's mine.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8440/201106090110.png

[izogrey]

Hi 3fx,

 

Don't feel pressed if you cannot post lessons/homeworks. If you cannot post, that's it ... it's the life. We aren't here in a competition with deadline, we just try to build a virtual space of goooooooood quality. :-)

 

Regarding this, I think that all the human actions can be clasified in one of these three categories:

1) do it good, but not fast; ( I mean do it using all the potential resources )

2) do it fast, but not good; ( I mean not at maximum of possibilities, just a minimum of quality, but fast )

3) do it good and fast; ( this is veeeeery tricky, and it's possible only sometimes )

 

I think this thread ( and the trading in general ) should be in the first one :-)

 

UC confluence level:

 

I drew the SR line from confluence after I put Fibo ( and after I considered the short term price action ), but it's a short term SR line, not a strong one.

 

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/1531/ucconfluence.gif

[nnn123]

Here is mine with fibs.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZdSw

 

Which is a AU daily.

 

It has a one fib confluence at 1.0333, where 23% and a 61% are aligned.

[nnn123]

Hi 3fx,

 

I went over the H4 and I redrew the zigzags as well as the fractals. Earlier, I had used Zigzag indic.

 

Here is the AudCad H4 with Fibs for the last two large swings.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZdYA

[crips]

Here is my 4h EU chart with fibs.

 

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/1160/eu4hpachartwithfibs.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Best confluence I see on 61,8; 50 and 23,6 levels. Best out of those 3 is 50 level

 

Regards

 

Crips

Edited June 9, 2011 by crips

[grooter]

Here is mine. Best confluence I see at 61.8 fib level.

 

 

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[alright]

I'm posting again my EJ picture after almost 9 hours to show what's happened in the meantime. My matching levels were 23.6 and 61.8. Well, the 61.8 acted as a perfect support generating an 80 pips move (white arrows) which bounced off the 23.6 by 30 pips (red arrow)! No comment... ;)

 

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4179/201106090948.png