soundfx Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 sidecona, The refreshed signals would be nicely profitable and the real-time signals (which the EA would use) from what I've seen will be net losers. They pick up trends ok but get chopped to bits in ranging markets - no different to MA crosses really. It's been quite a choppy trading day today and we've had 5 short signals from the 1H arrows which were all at the bottom of a move. You only see two on the refreshed chart. In fact I've been watching the last failed signal short plot red arrows for an hour, then I restarted MT4 and those red arrows magically transformed into grey X's lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidecona Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Unpicking the indicators: MTF_LJ_SYNERGY_ID = LJ_SYNERGY_ID (but TF'd). LJ_SYNERGY_ID = LJ_SIG! LJ_SIG checks that: Buy - (reverse for sell) Heiken Ashi is above 5SMA of High -3 pips TDI Green > 50 TDI Green > TDI Red TDI Green > TDI Yellow And I know from backtesting (fwiw) that the LJ_Sig moves up and down. This is due to the HA repainting, and the TDI repainting. sound, I also noticed the arrows appearing at the end of moves... they (ironically) almost act as a kind of support... am busy doing some backtesting, and it's not looking positive at all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 FXiGoR, Thanks for your advice. I think I now understand the problem better. When we look at the 5m chart and use indicators based on the 1H chart (TDI, SSMA, and HA) these indicators will fluctuate as the 1H candle is developing and we would normally expect to see the arrows on the 5m flashing on and off with these changes (a cl***ic sign of re-painting). However, in this case I believe that for the duration of the new 1h candle being formed, on the 5m chart we continue to see the status of the trend at the previous 1h candle - so in an uptrend, each 5m bar plots a green arrow (and these don't change) until we reach a new hour. However, when we load the indicator afresh and that new 1h candle is complete, the uptrend may no longer be valid - hence all the green 5m arrows covering that 1h candle are wiped out and become grey crosses. I'm familiar with your name from TSD and know that you've done a lot of work in this area, I hadn't realised you'd been at this for 16 years ! In that time, have you come to any conclusions as to the sort of system which is most likely to succeed with EA automation? Have you managed to find anything which is consistently profitable over a long period of time? I've often thought that in theory we should be able to enter the market at random points and with the correct money management still end up slightly profitable overall. However, I think that a system with logical entry points and good money management has a high probability of being consistently profitable. Consider something as simple as average daily range. If we take the 21 day ADR and then add it to today's low and subtract from today's high, we get a measure of how far price can be expected to move before turning back. If we can further identify price showing signs of "topping out" or "bottoming out" at these levels (perhaps from pin bar candlesticks or candle formations such as double tops or double bottoms?) then we can enter short at the top for example with a tight stop and target much greater than the stop (50% of the move up from the daily low could be a good target). Placing trades like this we will get stopped out on occasion where trends force prices higher and higher or lower and lower, however I believe that on each trade our target could be 3 times the stop (e.g. stop 20, target 60 on EURUSD for example) which means that we only need to win 30% of our trades to be net profitable (just). With logical entries as I've mentioned above, I believe that our accuracy would be more like 70% and with 1:3 risk:reward that means on 10 EURUSD trades with stop 20 and target 60 (in reality these will be dictated by price action - not fixed), we'd be in profit by 360 pips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abdulisback Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hi Soundfx, You just can't and that is what I try to explain in my previous postings. I don't want to sound rude or arrogant but I am not some sort of an fx follower since 2009 and who only made 15 postings here in this forum. Google on my name: FXiGoR. I trade and devellop system for nearly 16 years now. Again using systems or EA's that use whatever MTF indicator is a pure waist of time. Because manual or mechanical backtesting does not show what happend in real time. Friendly regards... FXiGoR ==================================================================== hey FXiGor, I did google you and found that you have blown up and still blowing up so many accounts that it is not funny :( Although I do not disagree with you on the MTF indicator case, but I do recommend that you do not ask people to google you ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidecona Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is indicator.. No repainted.. http://www.megaupload.com/?d=FAU6PO0A I belive that some mql programmer make it to EA. Let's make it~~and test.. Using only 5TF.. eur/usd Entry..EX) Buy position mtf lj synergy id is blue signal and lj synergy id is blue..when candle start. EX) Sell position position mtf lj synergy id is red signal and lj synergy id is red..when candle start. Exit is when signal change "X" == Hey, do you have this indicator? LJ_BBW_Mom_SIG it's commented in the LJ_SYNERGY_ID Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 sidecona, I can't find LJ_BBW_Mom_SIG anywhere, not even in the original thread on TSD. I ***ume BBW = Bollinger Band Width and Mom = Momentum. BB's with a large width are typically those which are formed when there is strong momentum where price is stretching the BBs and running up just outside the upper band or down just outside the lower band. Price moves with momentum behind them may be the best ones to trade with this system. However trading momentum comes with a price (as with everything in trading lol) and the price is that momentum can stop and turn at any time. A general rule would be check the angle of the BBs too (particularly the band nearest price). In markets without strong directional momentum, price moving out of the BBs would be a signal for BB traders to trade in the opposite direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXiGoR Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) ==================================================================== hey FXiGor, I did google you and found that you have blown up and still blowing up so many accounts that it is not funny :( Although I do not disagree with you on the MTF indicator case, but I do recommend that you do not ask people to google you ;) I don't need to take this cr*p. I have not ever blown up an account...not EVER. I am an account manager for 32 clients and in total for 800K$ that with my system were I give the live MT4i links now since mt4i started over 1 1/2 year period. Show me one link on a REAL account or a posting of someone that claims that I blow up an account !![b/] I am here to help and not to start an argument on my trading. I can post links in my signature of my results to make publicity, which I don't because I am not here to talk about me. This is a link to a REAL account of one of my members that is also a member here on this forum hxxp://www.mt4i.com/users/paulzbroco1 . It should be very clear to you that you should better keep your negative comments to yourself. Maybe you are not impressed by the total result because you have seen already statements that show 300% in 1month. So have I but when I check those links 6 months later they are dead or finished. That is why that I am around already for quite some time. Lets talk to eachother in an other 16 years. Regards FXiGoR PS I adressed myself to soundfx, so I don't know why you feel the urge to adress yourself to me ! PS2. If I would have any history of blowing up an account of somebody do you think that I would come here under the same name and say that you can google on my name ?! Edited March 31, 2011 by FXiGoR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXiGoR Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 However, in this case I believe that for the duration of the new 1h candle being formed, on the 5m chart we continue to see the status of the trend at the previous 1h candle - so in an uptrend, each 5m bar plots a green arrow (and these don't change) until we reach a new hour. However, when we load the indicator afresh and that new 1h candle is complete, the uptrend may no longer be valid - hence all the green 5m arrows covering that 1h candle are wiped out and become grey crosses. That is indeed the problem and absolutly correct ! In that time, have you come to any conclusions as to the sort of system which is most likely to succeed with EA automation? Have you managed to find anything which is consistently profitable over a long period of time? Consistently ? NO One of the key elements in trading is to have the right expectations. That is to accept that losses are connected to trading as breathing is to life. The vast majority of forex traders want to make a living from a couple of thousand dollars. Which leads to be wayyy overleveraged and sooner or later blowing up their account in a bigger drawdown. If you would have 100K$ to trade from then I am sure that you would be happy with 50% at the end of the year. But 1000$ traders seek 1000%. That path is possible for a couple of months but to make that profit it demands an enormous risk which will blow up your account as quickly as you made the profits previous to the blow up. I've often thought that in theory we should be able to enter the market at random points and with the correct money management still end up slightly profitable overall. However, I think that a system with logical entry points and good money management has a high probability of being consistently profitable. Absolutly correct because the forex market and all other markets are absolutly random. Consider something as simple as average daily range. If we take the 21 day ADR and then add it to today's low and subtract from today's high, we get a measure of how far price can be expected to move before turning back. If we can further identify price showing signs of "topping out" or "bottoming out" at these levels (perhaps from pin bar candlesticks or candle formations such as double tops or double bottoms?) then we can enter short at the top for example with a tight stop and target much greater than the stop (50% of the move up from the daily low could be a good target). Placing trades like this we will get stopped out on occasion where trends force prices higher and higher or lower and lower, however I believe that on each trade our target could be 3 times the stop (e.g. stop 20, target 60 on EURUSD for example) which means that we only need to win 30% of our trades to be net profitable (just). That is again correct. In each system that you build the only 2 elements that are important are hitrate in immediat combination with reward/risk ratio. With logical entries as I've mentioned above, I believe that our accuracy would be more like 70% and with 1:3 risk:reward that means on 10 EURUSD trades with stop 20 and target 60 (in reality these will be dictated by price action - not fixed), we'd be in profit by 360 pips. You need to accept that never ever ever you will find yourself a system that has a positive hitratio more then 50% in combination with and reward that is bigger then the risk. The moment you would find it, that is THE Holy Grail and it would proof that you can predict the future. Which is sientificly not possible. Friendly regards... FXiGoR soundfx 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hi FXiGoR, Many thanks for your responses. By consistently profitable I meant in terms of average pips which could be taken per week or per month. I realise that losses are just the "cost of doing business" in the markets and we have to take them in our stride. I agree on your point regarding starting capital. For someone opening an account for $500, trading all year to end up with $750 just isn't worth it. However, there are good manual traders around who can take a $500 account to say $7-$10K and then keep taking out $200+ per day on average when they hit that balance - though I've yet to see any EA which comes remotely near being able to do what good manual traders can do :) I don't think you'd need to predict the future to get a positive hit ratio > 50% with reward more than risk. The key I believe would be entering trades at high probability reversal points which would keep stops very tight and because price has moved a good distance in one direction it will normally retrace to at least 25% or typically 50% of the previous move. We could take 70% off the table at the 25% retracement level and leave 30% to run with stops moved to breakeven targeting the 50% retracement. If our trade direction happens to coincide with a higher timeframe trend then the odds are very much with us. Of course this is easier to do when manually trading because we can see price action which doesn't "feel" right and not trade at all or get out of trades with a small profit or small loss if we think our stop may be hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXiGoR Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) Hi FXiGoR, By consistently profitable I meant in terms of average pips which could be taken per week or per month. I realise that losses are just the "cost of doing business" in the markets and we have to take them in our stride. Nope. Professional traders speek about their profits at the end of the year. A professional trader knows that the finish is at the end of the year. We know that we can be up for 50% in November and loos everything in December. I always say to somebody that seeks a consitent return that he should pick up a "normal" job that pays an mothly incomme. No RISK and at the end of the month your RETURN (pay check) will be waiting for you. I agree on your point regarding starting capital. For someone opening an account for $500, trading all year to end up with $750 just isn't worth it. However, there are good manual traders around who can take a $500 account to say $7-$10K and then keep taking out $200+ per day on average when they hit that balance - though I've yet to see any EA which comes remotely near being able to do what good manual traders can do :) Correct that is why you have junior traders and senior traders. Because the type of trading that you discribe only lasts for a couple of years when you are young and you are hungry. This type of trading leads very quickly to a total burn out. The very same for sales people who went 30 years ago from door to door to sell bibles or vacuum cleaners or today people who sit in call centers to sell a product. I don't think you'd need to predict the future to get a positive hit ratio > 50% with reward more than risk. The key I believe would be entering trades at high probability reversal points which would keep stops very tight and because price has moved a good distance in one direction it will normally retrace to at least 25% or typically 50% of the previous move. We could take 70% off the table at the 25% retracement level and leave 30% to run with stops moved to breakeven targeting the 50% retracement. If our trade direction happens to coincide with a higher timeframe trend then the odds are very much with us. Of course this is easier to do when manually trading because we can see price action which doesn't "feel" right and not trade at all or get out of trades with a small profit or small loss if we think our stop may be hit. Many people disagreed with me on this statement. Everytime I say to them to show me the results of such a system and that works on severall pairs without changing the parameters. NEVER EVER did I see proof of this. And important is that I look to this in a 100% matemathical way and mechanical way. Discretionary trading does not proof anything. Except Warren buffet but for that reason is he the 3rd riechest man in the world. But even he made "only" an avg. of 30% yearly profit over 38 years. Friendly regards... iGoR Edited March 31, 2011 by FXiGoR soundfx and retireme 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abdulisback Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 I am not here to start any **** with you either,, Can you please post your results on myfxbook to verify it is real? To be honest you have been doing this before 2009 and all successful accounts you manage are demo,, I have not found a single longterm successful live account for you and not a single satisfied client. if you're saying that you never blown up any account,, then please post a real live un cut statement on myfxbook please for all the way back from 2009 With all these negative posts about you on the internet, you're kinda hard to believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXiGoR Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 (edited) I am not here to start any **** with you either,, Can you please post your results on myfxbook to verify it is real? To be honest you have been doing this before 2009 and all successful accounts you manage are demo,, I have not found a single longterm successful live account for you and not a single satisfied client. if you're saying that you never blown up any account,, then please post a real live un cut statement on myfxbook please for all the way back from 2009 With all these negative posts about you on the internet, you're kinda hard to believe I do not have any problem in showing you proof that the people who trade my system since 2009 are more then succesfull. I do not have any problem in posting links to some statements of REAL accounts. I can only gain by this. But before I do this, what are you going to show to me ? If your answer would be: nothing, then I suggest that you keep your peace because I do not remember that I adressed myself to you or that I need to proof anything to you unless that you would like to trade my system. Then I suggest that you send me a mail and I will send you all the proof and results since 2009. I am not known as a spammer who uses other peoples topics to advertise myself with my results. Friendly regards.... iGoR Edited March 31, 2011 by FXiGoR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abdulisback Posted March 31, 2011 Report Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yes, I would love to trade your system and I am sure most of members here on this forum would love to if they got the capital for it and if your results actually look good. The thing is iGor , you never stood up to all these accusations posted about you on the internet... only a single myfxbook verified trading statement link will clear up the smoke... and future smoke as well Please post it on myfxbook, and throw the link here so we can see it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXiGoR Posted April 1, 2011 Report Share Posted April 1, 2011 Hi Abdulisback, I think I am old and and wise enough to know what I need or should do and that no one needs to tell me what I should do. If I don't stand up to the so called accusations there can be only 2 possibilitys for that: Or that I can not give any proof of good results or that I do not care because I know that my clients are more then happy with their results. So read my previous posting again. We play it by my rules because I don't follow the rules that someone dictates me. And about the accusations, I am somebody that does polarize people. Or people are for me or they are against me. It has never been my intention to be Mr. Nice Guy or Mr. Popular on any forum. It was to help people. Some people like that because they recognize my knowledge and learn from it. Some people think that they know it better and that I am an arrogant person. So be it... I remember that I adressed myself to soundfx and I am sure that he now understands what I tried to explain to him about the "re-painting" element of MTF indicators. And that I spared him and others of investing useless energy and effort to look any further in the MTF "problem". This is my last posting here in this topic because this topic was to talk about the MTF indicators and not about me. Friendly regards... iGoR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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