Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[fallenDC]

Yen selling resumes early Asia

 

Having reached 79.53 post intervention, the pair retreated to support at 78.00 area, spending most of the last two sessions consolidating around it. Now in Asia, USD/JPY is resuming the upward tendencies and has popped up over 30 pips to post new session highs just short of 78.50.

 

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com: "Support at 78.00 represents the 38.2% retracement of the post intervention rally while 100 DMA is also there, acting like a magnet for price. Hourly chart shows indicators flat below their midlines while 20 SMA is turning south just above current price."

 

The analyst adds: "Still only below 77.70 the pair may feel further selling pressure, yet investors won’t be running to sell yet, with intervention still in the table, and probably wait for further definitions in the days to come. 4 hours chart shows momentum regaining the upside, another sign selling remains limited so far."

 

Valeria identifies support levels at 77.70 77.40 77.10, while resistance levels are seen at 78.20 78.60 79.00.

 

Taking a second view on board, fundamentally-oriented, Kathy Lien, who is Director of Currency Research at GFT, thinks that further intervention is certainly possible because the Japanese have a great deal of money to spend. Back in September, the Japanese increased their war chest for intervention by Y15 trillion to Y46 trillion ($600B), the largest ever and the MoF vowed to do all that it takes to engineer a satisfactory movement in the Yen."

 

However, Kathy warns: "For intervention to be truly effective however, the U.S. needs to back off their plans to ease monetary policy because the main source of USD/JPY weakness has been the prospect of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately with manufacturing activity in the Chicago region slowing in the month of October, the chance of the Fed dropping their plans for QE3 remains slim."

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

RBA rate cut could accelerate bear slide in AUD/USD – V.Bednarik

 

AUD/USD is seeing limited action in Asia as investors await today’s RBA rate decision; the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

 

“There is still a bit of lingering doubt but the consensus opinion would seem to be that the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps today and leave the way open for another 25 bps cut in February or March of next year,” explains Sean Lee, Editor at ForexLive.

 

As Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com notes, “[AUD/USD] trades just above 1.0500 strong support area; market players are waiting for a rate cut, which can accelerate the slide in the cross on current risk aversion environment, favored by technical indicators: hourly chart shows the below their midlines, while 20 SMA caps the upside.”

 

At time of writing, AUD/USD is virtually unmoved ahead of the RBA economic policy decision due out at 03:30 GMT. To the downside, support levels lie at 1.0500, 1.0460 and 1.0410, while, to the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0570, 1.0620 and 1.0660.

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

BOJ Minutes: Bank is further enhancing monetary easing

 

In the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 6 and 7, 2011, the Bank of Japan continued to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1 percent.

 

“The Bank is steadily implementing its decision in August to further enhance monetary easing, especially through the purchase of financial assets,” was stated in the minutes. “The Bank is also committed to continuing the virtually zero interest rate policy until it judges that price stability is in sight on the basis of the ‘understanding of medium- to long-term price stability’."

 

Japan's economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path, “backed by a moderate increasing trend in exports and by a rise in domestic demand for restoring capital stock,” according to the minutes. The current understanding shows that “on the basis of a year-on-year rate of change in the CPI, it falls in a positive range of 2 percent or lower, centering around 1 percent."

 

“The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is expected to remain at around 0 percent for the time being,” was read in the minutes.

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

Attack higher in USD/JPY; peaks short of 79.00

 

Looks like the BoJ has joined the bid tone again, although no confirmation has been given just yet. USD/JPY rate eas pushed to a new intra-day high at 78.94 before sellers managed to soak up most of the buying pressure. Price has returned in no time back to 78.50, level that appears to be defended now.

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

Intervention not behind latest dollar rise vs yen - 2 Dealers

 

Intervention Not Behind Latest Dollar Rise Vs Yen - 2 Dealers.

 

Source: DowJones

[fallenDC]

EUR/USD forecast raised to 1.40, 1.35 in 1, 3 months - UBS

 

The latest developments in the Eurozone with progress on Greece, bank recapitalisation and leveraging the EFSF have reduced investor risk aversion, says the UBS FX Research Team. As a result, the team has raised their one month EURUSD forecast from 1.30 to 1.40 and their three month forecast from 1.20 to 1.35 as the euro is set to trade in a higher short term range of 1.35-1.45 over the next few weeks. For AUDUSD, the team has also raised their forecast from 0.95 and 0.90 to 1.04 and 0.97 and for NZDUSD from 0.76 and 0.72 to 0.80 and 0.74 respectively. Besides, in light of better investor confidence they also raised one and three month forecasts for GBPUSD from 1.51 and 1.40 to 1.60 and 1.55.

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

AUD/USD falls to new session lows on weaker China PMI

 

Aussie is resuming its s/t bearish tendencies after China's PMI came out lower than expected. While medium forecast from analyst was looking at a 51.6, the number was actually 50.4, a new 32-month low, yet still holding above the psychological 50.00 handle.

 

The Australian Dollar has come off highs at 1.0560 quite aggressively, marginally cracking former session lows to find support at 1.0510/15. Key support is seen at 1.0500/0490, unlikely to be broken before the key risk event of the day later on with the RBA rate decision, where analysts favour a 25bp rate cut. A break below mentioned support sees the 100-day MA around 1.0435 threatened.

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

EUR/USD breaks Monday's low, no follow through

 

After climbing with vigor almost 300 pips post-EU crisis deal, the Euro gave back all its gains following a very bearish Monday for the currency, where the threat of a Greek referendum spooked investors out of EUR-longs, which resulted in a sharp slide to 1.3860 after stops were blown out at 1.3900.

 

During Asia, the most traded pair in the FX market resumed its downward momentum to take out yesterday's low at 1.3827, with the rate being paid as low as 1.3812 before staging a recovery to 1.3835. The latest slide came courtesy of a lower Chinese PMI, which stood at 50.4, significantly lower than the 51.6 the market was expecting.

 

Commenting on the latest EUR/USD price action, Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies, observed: “The 20ema held upside advances once broken and selling actually got more aggressive with each subsequent candle communicating the selling was increasing. 1.3800 is critical to the downside and a break here suggests 1.3685 will come under attack quickly. Pullbacks to 1.4000 become possible rally points to sell into strength.”

 

On the upside, the FXTechstrategy team, also shared their view: “EUR must now break and hold above its Oct 27’2011 high at 1.4241 level to end its present bear threats and bring further strength towards the 1.4283 level, its Sept 06’2011 high. A violation of here will pave the way for further strength towards the 1.4342 level, its daily falling trendline and subsequently the 1.4550 level, representing its Aug 29’2011 high."

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

EUR/GBP buying interest expected at 0.8545 - FXAlliance

 

EUR/GBP has been quiet in Asia after Monday's push to levels below 0.8660, as the positive reaction to last week’s EU Leaders’ Summit and the subsequent repositioning in the currency markets appear to have run their course.

 

According to the FXAlliance Team, any potential move to the upside after bouncing from the 0.8600 support zone “would be met with resistance at 0.8645. This level served as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous 0.8535-0.8831 bull wave and will now serve as the initial level of resistance on a turn higher.” To the downside, “breaks below 0.8600 won’t spark any support level buying till around 0.8543 October 3rd session low.”

 

At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading a limited 0.8620/0.8595 range, last at 0.8605. To the downside, immediate support lies at 0.8591(25 Feb high) and, below there, 0.8563 (24 Feb high) and 0.8528. To the upside, resistance levels lie at 0.8640 (5 Aug low), 0.8651 (19 Aug low) and 0.8665 (21 Oct low).

 

source : fxstreet

[fallenDC]

RBA lowered the benchmark interest rate

 

The Reserve bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. The majority of the economists now agree that the RBA is unlikely to start the easing cycle.

 

Analysts at HSBC claim that as long as Aussie remains strong, the central bank will be less concerned about inflation that will prevent it from decreasing the borrowing costs. In addition RBA’s statement doesn’t contain hints at further rate cuts. According to the specialists, RBA’s approach has switched to neutral.

 

Strategists at ANZ aren’t sure about the central bank’s neutral position but say that they don’t expect another easing move in December naming February as the potential time when the next cut arrives. Analysts at St. George Bank look forward to only one more rate reduction in March.

 

Australian dollar fell versus its US counterpart from today’s maximum at $1.0566 to the levels below $1.0450.

 

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[fallenDC]

UBS increased forecasts for EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD

 

Currency strategists at UBS increased their 1-month forecast for the single currency versus the greenback from $1.30 to $1.40 and 3-month one from $1.20 to $1.35. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will be trading between $1.35 and $1.45 during the next few weeks.

 

The predictions for GBP/USD were also lifted up from $1.51 and $1.40 to $1.60 and $1.55.

 

In addition, the specialists raised their 1- and 3-month estimates of future AUD/USD rate from 0.95 and 0.90 to 1.04 and 0.97 and of NZD/USD from 0.76 and 0.72 to 0.80 and 0.74 respectively.

 

As the reason for the revisions the analysts cited the improvement of the market’s sentiment after the European authorities took actions to safe Greece from default.

 

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[fallenDC]

Euro: events and comments

 

The single currency fell versus the greenback on the expectations that European Central Bank cuts its benchmark interest rates on Thursday, November 3.

 

According to Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Group AG index shows that yesterday traders expected the ECB to reduce the borrowing costs by 26.1 basis points during the next 12 months, while at the end of July this figure was equal to 11.1 basis points.

 

Euro was also affected by the weak Chinese Manufacturing PMI data which dropped from 51.2 in September to 50.4 in October. In Addition, the single currency weakened against its US counterpart ahead of the FOMC statement later today (4:30 p.m. GMT).

 

Apart from the ECB meeting the major coming events are:

 

- G20 summit on November 3-4;

 

- Referendum on the EU latest bailout plan for Greece that includes the agreement of the private creditors of the nation to accept 50% loss on their holdings of Greek government bonds or 100 billion euro, the increase of EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) to 1 trillion euro and support for the region’s banking sector. According to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, the referendum will take place after all the details of the bailout package will be set. According to the polls, nearly 60% of Greeks oppose the debt deal;

 

- The vote of confidence in the ruling Socialist party government will also take place in Greece on Friday.

 

The pair EUR/USD plunged from October 27 maximum at $1.4247 to open today at $1.3860 and then slump below $1.3750. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe that euro is on the way down to the levels around $1.35. Support for euro is found at 1.3650/60 (October 18-20 minimums).

 

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[fallenDC]

Westpac: recommendations ahead of NFP

 

On Friday comes an important release – US Non-Farm Payrolls for October.

 

Currency strategists at Westpac Institutional Bank think that if the number of jobs increased last month by more than 95K (the consensus forecast is of 98K increase after September growth of 103K), it would be wise to buy USD/JPY. If the reading is below 60K, the specialists recommend buying USD/CAD pointing out that Canadian economy which has close ties to the one of its neighbor will also suffer.

 

Westpac analysts regard the first scenario as the most likely. That’s why they advise investors to open dollar longs at 77.00 yen stopping at 76.00 yen and targeting 79.50 yen.

 

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[fallenDC]

Citigroup: Japan’s intervention is unlikely to be a success

 

On Monday Japan intervened at the currency market for the third time this year in order to weaken its national currency. There’s no official information about of the amount spent, but the market’s speculating that Japan may have sold about 7 trillion yen ($92.31 billion) breaking the previous record of a 1-day intervention of 4.5 trillion yen (August 4, 2011).

 

Never the less, many analysts are skeptical doubting that the move will be able to succeed in preventing yen from appreciation and easing pressure on Japanese exports. The economists cite the results on the previous unilateral attempts of Japan’s government when after a jump the pair USD/JPY slid down again. Citigroup specialists believe that this time everything will be the same. Economists at BNP Paribas say that the intervention policy is losing effectiveness.

 

Among the factors which may cause the demand for yen increase one should name the risks connected with the euro area and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may ease its monetary policy. Specialists at Westpac underline that in the current situation investors will crave for safe havens. Another thing that seems likely to undermine the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities is the profit repatriation of Japanese companies which buy yen during this process.

 

US dollar bounced yesterday by 5% from the record minimum at 75.56 yen to the maximum at 79.53, but then eased down to the levels around 78 yen.

 

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[fallenDC]

Westpac, HSBC on the outlook for kiwi

 

New Zealand’s dollar weakened this week versus its US counterpart as investors’ risk sentiment was affected by the news about the referendum in Greece.

 

Currency strategists at Westpac believe that NZD/USD will keep declining during the next few weeks moving down to the levels in the $0.7000 area. In their view, support for the pair is situated at $0.7910, while resistance stays at $0.8050.

 

Analysts at HSBC, however, think that there won’t be any clear trend for kiwi until the FOMC and ECB meetings and US payrolls this week. It’s necessary to note that the specialists don’t expect the Fed to trigger the QE3 as there should be a deflationary environment for that.

 

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[fallenDC]

J.P.Morgan: euro versus yen and US dollar

 

Analysts at J.P. Morgan claim that in the situation of uncertainty caused by the announcement of the Greek referendum one should sell the single currency versus Japanese yen at 107.00 stopping at 109.25 and targeting 102.00. According to the economists, the unilateral intervention in Japan won’t be effective.

 

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As for EUR/USD, the specialists think that it will decline to $1.36. The bank underlines that the volatility index is high, about 20%, so in the short term the trade is going to be extremely choppy. The strategists advise investors who are trading the pair to pay great attention to today’s FOMC meeting results and US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. In their view, euro will keep losing to the greenback during the coming months and quarters and may hit $1.30.

 

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[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/USD

 

Concerns about Greece’s future made euro test the levels below October minimums in the $1.3655/52 zone hitting the $1.3600 area yesterday.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect EUR/USD to through consolidation during the coming sessions. Resistance levels at $1.3855 and $1.3930 are going to limit euro’s advance today. Support is found at $1.3610 and $1.3550.

 

Then the pair will resume its down move. The specialists think that the European currency will slide to $1.3381/60 (late September minimums) and then to $1.3145 (October 4 minimum).

 

The bank advises investors to avoid trading the pair until the fate of the latest bailout package becomes clear.

 

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[fallenDC]

Agenda for the euro area in November

 

– Wednesday, Nov. 2: French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet with Greek, IMF and EU officials in Cannes. Portuguese T-bill auction. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data.

 

– Thursday, Nov. 3: ECB policy meeting. Mario Draghi’s first press conference as ECB President. Spanish and French bond auctions.

 

– Thursday, Nov. 3 – Friday, Nov. 4: G-20 leaders meet in Cannes.

 

– Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.

 

– Monday, Nov. 7: Eurogroup finance ministers meet.

 

– Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meet. Greek T-bill auction.

 

– Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.

 

– Friday, Nov. 11: 2.0 billion euro of Greek T-bills mature.

 

– Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.

 

– Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.

 

– Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.

 

– Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.

 

– Friday, Nov. 18: 1.3 billion euro of Greek T-bills mature.

 

– Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.

 

– Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.

 

– Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.

 

– Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote.

[fallenDC]

Morgan Stanley: euro and political factors

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley look into political factors which will determine dynamics of the single currency versus the greenback.

 

Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy meet with the Greek government and the IMF officials ahead of 2-day G20 summit beginning tomorrow, but the specialists think that euro’s advance on this news won’t last long.

 

The strategists urge traders to pay attention to the confidence vote in Greek government that is taking place on Friday. In their view, the most bearish outcome for euro would be if the Prime Minister George Papandreou wins as that will lead to the referendum with potentially negative results. If Greek say “no” to the bailout package, Greece will be doomed to announce default.

 

If Papandreou loses, the government will fall and the new elections will be very likely. In such case the new budget reform measures and potentially delay the next round of bailout funds from the EU will be delayed. This scenario, however, would be more positive for euro as this way there will be no referendum.

 

Anyway, the medium term outlook for euro, according to Morgan Stanley, is negative.

 

According to the bank, EUR/USD has broken through the major support levels and is now poised down to $1.3365 and $1.3145 (October 4 minimum). Morgan Stanley expects the pair to end 2011 at $1.30 and then drop to $1.25 in the first quarter of the next year.

 

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[fallenDC]

CIBC: 12-month forecast for EUR/USD

 

Analysts at CIBC World Markets expect the single currency to trade between $1.3400 and $1.3800 during the next 12 months.

 

According to the specialists, in December EUR/USD will consolidate in the $1.3800 area. Then it will fall to $1.3400 in March next year and rebound to $1.3500 in June and to 1.3600 in September to return back to $1.3800 in December 2012.

 

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[fallenDC]

Bernanke: US economy may need additional stimulus

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed yesterday that additional monetary stimulus may be needed to reduce unemployment as US economic outlook seems to be rather pessimistic. Among the options of such stimulus Bernanke named the third round of quantitative easing, extending the period of record-low borrowing costs or estimating the conditions necessary for the rate hike.

 

The Chairman admits that the central bank has overestimated the pace of US economic recovery and expects American economic growth to be “frustratingly slow”, while FOMC statement states that even after relatively good figures in the third quarter there are “significant downside risks”. According to Bernanke, these risks include the effects of European fiscal and banking problems.

 

The Fed’s GDP growth projections for 2012 were lowered from 3.3-3.7% (June’s estimate) to 2.5-2.9%. The projected unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the next year was raised from the previous forecast of 7.8-8.2% to 8.5-8.7%.

 

The Operation Twist or the lengthening of the Fed’s bond portfolio maturity is left in place. US monetary authorities also confirmed the plan to hold the Federal funds rate between 0% and 0.25% at least until the middle of 2013.

 

It’s clear now that the Fed’s policy has become more accommodative and the central bank is ready for aggressive actions.

 

Despite the increased possibility of QE3 that should have weakened US dollar the greenback strengthened against euro. Analysts at UBS think that this may be explained by the fact that some traders expected the Fed to take even more loose approach. In addition, one should remember that the pair EUR/USD is also weakened by the ongoing crisis in the euro area.

 

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[fallenDC]

Greece’s membership in euro area depends on referendum results

 

The Greek dilemma is finally put point-blank: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Greece’s referendum on a bailout deal will determine whether it will stay in the euro area.

 

French President Nicolas Sarkozy claimed that the indebted nation will receive any financing only if it holds to the terms of a rescue agreement designed last week.

 

This is the first time when European leaders raised the prospect of the euro zone splintering. The vote is scheduled on December 4 or 5.

 

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou who has initiated the referendum thinks that there’s the necessity of “wider consensus” for the bailout terms expressing confidence that his nation will remain the member of the monetary union. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, on the other hand, argues that such question can’t be submitted to referendum.

 

The results of the polls show that although the majority of Greeks are against the austerity measures imposed on them by the bailout package they don’t want their country to leave the currency bloc.

 

It’s also necessary to note that the next 8-billion-euro tranche of the first bailout package will be delayed until the referendum results are announced.

[fallenDC]

Niesr analyses the odds of the UK recession

 

National Institute for Economic and Social Research estimate the possibility of recession in the UK by 50%. If the European policymakers don’t find the solution of the region’s debt crisis, the odds of British economic contraction will equal to 70%.

 

The economists lowered their economic growth forecasts for 2012 from August estimate of 2% to 0.9%. In their view, UK GDP growth will keep stagnating in the first half of the next year as it was this year going through the slowest recovery since the end of the First World War.

 

Niesr has also revised down its forecast for the global economic growth from 4.5% to 4% in 2011 and 2012 noting that there are downside risks to this projection from the crisis in Greece.

 

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[fallenDC]

UBS: what if Greece has to quit euro?

 

Analysts at UBS tried to estimate the potential consequences Greece will face in case it has to leave the euro area.

 

On the one hand, the nation would regain control of exchange and interest rates. On the other hand, new currency would fall by about 60%. Greece’s borrowing costs would rise by at least 7 percentage points, so that position of banks and companies would seriously deteriorate. The country’s trade will drop by 50% even taking into account the competitive advantage exporters will gain from the devaluation.

 

All in all, according to UBS, quitting euro would cost each Greek 11,500 euro in the first year and 4,000 euro in following years.

[fallenDC]

UBS: technical levels for the major pairs

 

EUR/USD: the major support is found at $1.3567. If the single currency breaks below this level it will fall to $1.3406. Resistance is situated at $1.3871 and then at $1.4003.

 

GBP/USD: resistance lies at $1.6097. If the pair overcomes this level it will be poised up to $1.6167. Support is at $1.5825.

 

USD/JPY: resistance is seen at 78.42 and 78.98 yen and support – at 77.43 and 76.94 yen.

 

USD/CHF: support is situated at 0.8718 and 0.8568 (October 27 minimum). Resistance is found at 0.8960.

 

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