syk1kz trading journal

[syk1kz]

Quick intro here, we will NOT be using one system in this thread, we are here to make money. To do this consistently we must adapt to market conditions and appropriately adapt our trading style and or system(s). ALL systems i post in here have been made by me, This does NOT mean they are 100% unique and i would say they are actively being traded by somebody somwhere. My point is i don't want posts saying i stole this guys system and modified it somewhat. If i have borrowed or blatanly ripped something off i will say so - Transparency is the BIG rule of this thread, but not the only one. If you are not going to be transparent, honest and positive then just stay the f*** away.

 

Having said that i WILL share my system(s) in due time - I am not claiming they are all profitable long term strategy's but they are certainly profitable when rotated through other systems when markets conditions change. I am not looking for people who just want yet another system to bash. I am looking for people who want to contribute to making these systems more profitable and more robust than they currently are. If this sounds like you i welcome you to follow this thread and contribute with posts as you see fit.

 

ALL constructive critism is welcomed and appreciated, without it we are like an emu with our head in the sand. Other people see things differently and it is generally a different view or opinion that helps us achieve what we could not see ourselves.

 

Just remember no blatant abuse of myself or other followers of this thread, But picking the system to pieces is encouraged aslong as the intentions are positive.

 

For Trade information updated in real time i suggest adding me to twitter and getting tweetdeck since this will update the stream in realtime, meaning you get trade info before i post it on the forums - this could mean extra pips.

 

http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/249/11904507.png

 

 

 

Links will be kept under here for new followers to easily find.

 

*Current Stats*

http://www.mt4i.com/users/pipstealer/

 

*News Trader EA*

http://mir.cr/1CT6QPY1

 

*Stochastic Scalper*

http://mir.cr/1AFINRGX

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.1*

-Option added to change stochastic values

http://mir.cr/OEPQ9Y1E

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.2*

-Changed indicator to spot divergence easier

http://mir.cr/1L5EYUDN

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.3*

-MTF indicator edited to allow custom time frames for the average - Thanks 2 the member Stovedude right here on indo

http://mir.cr/0J3XPDTE

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.4*

-Added new templates for M5, M15 and M30

-Added Quik_Trailing EA with settings predefined for each template

http://mir.cr/1MO18CMJ

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.5*

-Added S&R indicator

-Removed all templates, Created new daily template

-Updated MTF indi to show %k, %d & slowing period's in the description.

http://mir.cr/JKBIUSWX

 

*Stochastic Scalper 1.6*

-Added candle pattern indicator with alert to help clarify entries. [H4 + Daily templates ONLY]

-Added the 4hourly and hourly template back again.

http://mir.cr/NOW0Z0PB

Edited January 7, 2011 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

Firstly i am NOT taking credit for this but the author and i used to trade together and now we don't. I have permission to share this from the author who will remain nameless since he wants nothing to do with any of this. It is custom not commercial You will NOT find this EA anywhere else except this thread.

 

To kick start this off i want to start off with something just a little bit different. News trading, or more specifically spike trading used to be extremely profitable until brokers decided to widen spreads making it unappealing to the masses. The reasoning behind this was they had dealing desks and generally were trading against you, Since it was a profitable strategy they were loosing money. Fast forward to today when we have literally thousands of reputable brokers offering no dealing desks and no spread widening during news, Hell some brokers are dedicated to news trading and GUARANTEE reasonable spreads on majors like EURUSD, i have seen spreads as low as 1.5pip for a news trade. that's pretty hot stuff since news can easily spike 100+pips depending on what data you trade.

 

Since it was a profitable strategy then why can't it be now? I believe this strategy is alive and well and if you are smart enough to pick the most volatile news you can easily pull in 50pips in as little as 2minutes. Yes 2 minutes or less and you bank descent pips. Now the problem here is being around when the news is released so we can capitalize on the volatile spikes. Generally speaking i cannot be around for the news i want to trade as i leave home 30minutes before it is released making it useless to me. So why not automate it to a certain degree? Well obviously this is not a new concept and there are thousand of news EA around but this one differs in a few ways that i think adds strength to the strategy.

 

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/5831/captureuga.jpg

 

Details to come if there is interest otherwise ill bypass this onto manual systems

 

http://mir.cr/1CT6QPY1

Edited December 9, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

I will come back to the news trading EA soon.

 

In the mean time there are somethings you will need to be able to understand if you are to make any sense of the things to come in this thread

 

Divergence

Fibonacci

Moving Averages

Trendlines

Support

Resistance

Basic Candlestick analysis

Stochastics

Parabolic Sar

Relative Strength Index

MACD is not included two oscillators is enough.

 

If you are familiar with most of the above you will get by, if you are reading that list and thinking screw this where is the next thread i suggest heading over to

www.babypips.com/school

and take advantage of the thousands of dollars worth of information packed into a forex school. It is easy to understand if you want to understand it, however people learn at different rates and what took me 1hour might take you 20minutes, i am by no means an expert i am learning every single day.

 

Also before you start thinking ok well that list is way to big and laggy for a system to work profitably then i agree, that list is a list of every indicator we will be using over multiple systems and analysis. Trades will be taken based on technical and fundamental analysis. I am funding a new live micro account with public stats so there is total transparency with the trades taken by me.

 

To a certain degree this thread will not be new trader friendly.

 

Back to the News EA, I suggest downloading it if you want to make some quick pips, next week we will be data trading exclusively with it. This means counter trend trades with a small but consistent take profit level, if we pick the correct news we can bag 35-50-100pips every single trade. I will cover counter trend trading with the EA and how to minimize losses while getting triggered counter trend, along with how to use this counter trend movement to re enter the market in the overall direction of the bigger trend.

 

The EA will not and is not meant to back test, this is a forward test EA only, meaning demo or live account, This EA will also be displayed on the live micro account when i am ready to fund it. The broker will be

www.gotmoneyfx.com.au

Edited December 10, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

Oh and divergence, thats going to be the very important to us, stay tuned

[syk1kz]

One more i forgot to mention is we are also using Fibonacci and or Fibonacci retracements.

 

To start things off here we need to have a direction to trade, up or down, long or short, that is the million dollar question. So how do we define the direction of the current price action? Well firstly using the daily chart we visually look at the trend. MA's can be used for people who feel more comfortable, but i generally do not use them for trend direction on large timeframes.

 

MA DAILY TREND

 

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/764/eurusdg.gif

 

Hard to tell for me, 200daysma is generally the accepted trend changing SMA, so i guess its up ? I cant be sure using this. I don't know what is the accepted 240min SMA for a trend change so zooming into a lower time frame can be alot more subjective maybe you use the 50 maybe the next guy uses the 20 and i may choose the 10. Maybe you include price action maybe you dont.

 

NAKED CHART DAILY TREND

 

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/4408/eurusdy.gif

 

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/3811/eurusds.gif

 

This is somewhat less subjective, to me anyway.

 

We will be using naked from now on.

[benny3]

Great thread syk1kz I'll will keep an eye on your progress

 

Benny3

[syk1kz]

Hey buddy glad to have you on board, i think i can help with the lack of signals we are getting from the other system, that was my main intention, to share something else we can benefit from on a much much smaller time frame using multiple time frame analysis. Since you have been so good with helping others in your own thread i thought i would attempt to help people [myself included] without filling your thread with analysis non related to the setups we are looking for. This thread is designed to keep me honest about my trading, if i have eyes on me i am less likely to be a fool when it comes to trading.

 

So we have a goal with these trades and that is to bag SMALL and CONSISTENT profits. If we can bag 20pips just once a day over 5 pairs that's is an impressive day in my book. If we do it again tomorrow then the day after bonus. Of course we have to accept some days will produce less signals meaning less opportunities, And other days will produce no signals or loosing signals. Some signals go for 40 or 50 pips some go for 15 the problem is identifying which does which. Before i go into to much detail i will point out a classic setup using some custom stochastics.

 

To be clear this stoch indicator is NOT coded by me it is freely available over at mq4forums. I have merely put it with another copy of stochastics to help filter useless signals.

 

http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/9472/eurusdm.gif

 

So here is the 20pips i nailed before without even thinking about it.

www.mt4i.com/users/pipstealer

 

You might be thinking just shut up and post the godamn system will you i want to trade now in my own way. If that is the case then go back to post #1 as i will keep it updated with current links and updates. If you want to know how to use the system then please continue to read. I will make this as least boring as possible.

 

Firstly we need to understand what the top indicator is and what it represents. Well i already mention it was a stochastics indicator but not a standard one. This indicator is actually an average of the current time frame and the 2 higher time frames meaning for the above chart it is the average value of the M5 + M15 + M30 stochastics all drawn into one line. This means we are actually trading multiple stochastics at once, is it using a hardset value of 15,5,5. So now we understand what the top indicator is we need to know what the bottom one does, Well it is a normal stochastics that goes coloured when we cross over the signal line, it will alert regardless of stochastics being in OB/OS or at the 50 level, a cross is a cross and it signals crosses. We are using a MUCH higher value for the signal stochastics which helps filter out bullshit signals.

 

A picture speaks a 1000 words.

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/6913/eurusdq.gif

 

Lets take a look at a current M1 setup i just missed out on. See if you can identify the entry point...

 

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/3353/eurusdzv.gif

 

Now you are probably thinking but what are the rules and where is this bloody system. Well sit on this for a while look at the charts and look again then again and again until you think you may have an idea, i am not playing games i am merely at work and trying to multi task somewhat so please be patient i will upload the required files and explain rules in detail with the next post.

 

*EDIT*

 

 

If you preach transparency to everyone else, you have to be transparent yourself. You have to fulfill the same standards you expect from others

Edited December 10, 2010 by syk1kz

[alright]

Hi syk1kz. Thanks for sharing. Although at the moment I've turned my attention mainly to PA trading, I will keep an eye on your ideas because they look interesting and also it looks like you know what you're speaking about ;) Keep up the good work. Looking forward to your next posts.

[syk1kz]

Hi Alright, welcome! And you are correct PA is king no doubt about it. PA makes trading easier for me rather than looking at lines crossing over other lines. But i believe when used correctly we can make good use of indicators. We can use them in conjunction with PA to boost confidence - i don't know about you but i continually second guess myself. These days when i open a position i set the SL/TP and close the platform for no less than 8 hours, generally 12hours, by that time i am well into profit or about to get stopped out. I am prone to killing winners for no reason when i start to question things.

 

 

Lets get on with this!

 

Firstly most system are created with high time frames in mind, such as daily or 240minute. This is great news since we are looking at the bigger picture rather than being blinded by noise or static. But when we want more opportunities we try and lower the time frame using the same system which generally causes problems or a lot more signals which arent really as strong as we hoped. So why not reverse the situation, Make a system for M5 and upscale to a higher time frame, surely if it works on low time frames then signals only get stronger as we increase the time frame. That was my theory behind this system.

 

We should be seeing something along the lines of this chart below - If not then you did it wrong.

 

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/2346/gbpusd.gif

 

Now we are looking for 2 types of setups, We already know that the top stochastic is an average of the current time frame stochastics and the next 2 higher time frame stochastics. So if we include the second indicator we are really using 4 stochastics here to filter our signals out.

 

#DIVERGENCE - i like clear obvious divergence on one indicator and a similiar value from the other one. But this is subjective and if i see an obvious new low or high with stochastics barely making a move past the previous peak or valley i will consider this just as important as clear divergence.

 

#Candlestick Patterns

-Spinning Top

-Pinbar

-Doji

-Engulfing / Momentum / Thrust

-Railroad

-Morning Star

-Evening Star

-Hammer

 

$SETUP A$ - This can be considered an extremely high probability setup.

 

1) BOTH stochastics MUST have previously reached OB/OS and now be in OB/OS for a second time.

2) Divergence MUST be present on either stoch, And the divergence MUST be in OB/OS.

3) Using your eyes quickly gauge the stop loss in pips, Use the current high/low. If it is greater than 15pips@M5 then we have a no trade signal. If this is to hard then use the line tool to get the stop loss in pips[takes longer]. Assuming we are on M5 time frame the stop loss should be no greater than 15pips including the spread.

 

#Stop Loss

If stop loss [current high / low] is well under 15pips i use between a 10-15pip stop loss, remember if the high or -low is over 15pips we do not trade.

Stop loss can be moved to break even when we have the equivalent of our stop loss in profit, So if we risk 12 pips we move stop to BE at 12pips then manually trail

 

#Take Profit / Exit

Nothing less than a 1:1 risk reward should be considered at any stage, meaning you want at least your stop loss in profit before closing the position, Manually trailing a position is advised but not required to be profitable. Since we wait so long to enter these high probability setups its not a great idea to blindly exit. This is the largest problem i have and i am open to suggestions

 

#Aggressive Entry [My Favourite]

After both stochastics have hit overbought twice and divergence is present on one indicator i will enter after the close of a clear reversal candle using the previously mentioned stop loss rule, i ignore stochastics being in OB/OS from that point on.

Here are some examples of extremely high probability setups

http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/787/usdjpyj.gif

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/9795/gbpusdf.gif

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/7590/usdchft.gif

 

#Safer Entry

When the bottom stochastic signals a cross, the alert box will popup. Disregard stoch still being in OB/OS and look -for a reversal candle to appear. Enter when reversal candle closes, Enter immediately if reversal candles have formed and stop loss is under 15pips. Same as above just wait for the box alert cross over

http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2346/gbpusd.gif

http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/3844/usdjpys.gif

 

 

I have decided against posting B setups since i cannot decide on a clear set of rules. We can call this the first of a few system i will be posting over the coming weeks and months. Each offer different signals at different times.

Edited December 11, 2010 by syk1kz

[alright]

Your setups look very clear and easy to understand. Do u mind posting the 2 types of stochastics you are using? Thanks

[syk1kz]

sure they are in the first post, all links will be kept there for easy finding later on rather than searching old pages

[syk1kz]

I should of mentioned we do not need to follow the trend with this system but should you manage to get on the right side of the trend it is reasonable for you to expect a rather large risk:reward. Also anything with a spread of around 2 or 2.5 at maximum is acceptable. Since we are including our spread into the stop we do not want to be trading with a spread of 3 it is to large. If your broker only has 2 or 3 pairs with low spreads get a gomarkets or gotmoneyfx demo they both have low spreads on a lot of pairs.

 

Here are a few more A setups so we can get used to what we want to be looking for. I may post pairs that have a spread that is obviously past our limit but i am showing valid setups. I am currently working out the kinks in the B setups and will post when i feel confident.

 

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/9661/eurgbpf.gif

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/5107/eurchf.gif

 

After scrolling back on USDCAD i see we have had no valid signals since december 8th there is a clear valid A setup that would of had around 1:3 risk:reward. Since then this pair has been dead, this is why we want a broker with very low spreads for multiple pairs. I would expect at least one signal per pair per week from this system alone when used on EURUSD USDCHF USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD that can equal a nice extra little bonus on top of whatever strategy's we are already trading.

http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/4741/usdcad.gif

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/1734/usdcadq.gif

 

Now this is not a valid signal but it sure is a nice drop, Maybe we can modify the rules to accommodate these types of situations since they rarely appear, USDCAD above actually has a very very similar setup which we would of not taken due to the markets closing so soon after it appeared. I would appreciate some feedback regarding this. I was thinking if stoch is in OB/OS for a certain period of time and we have divergence we can possibly call it as we see it ?

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7752/nzdusdr.gif

 

Heres a valid A setup that would of bagged some serious pippage with a damn tight stoploss.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/3755/audcad.gif

 

Hopefully you guys can look back using the template and see that these signals simply do not appear every single day but when they appear you can generally expect some nice moves, sometimes we will barely make a profit and other times we will simply kill it, But i hope we can agree that when scrolling back on charts there are loosing signals but the winning signals far out weigh the loosing ones in frequency and profitability.

 

Please post any comments or feedback as you see fit

 

Is anybody able to edit these indicators for me?

Edited December 11, 2010 by syk1kz

[alright]

sure they are in the first post, all links will be kept there for easy finding later on rather than searching old pages

 

Thanks. For some strange reason I kept overlooking this download on the first post. Now a question please: have you been using these indis for a while live? The reason why I ask is simple: MTF indicators are very easy to repaint.

[syk1kz]

If by live you mean a live funded account then no, if you mean live demo then yes i have been using these for around a month without any issues. I have been using this strategy for well over 4 months without any major looses. There is no reason for the indi to repaint, and to be honest i have looked for it to repaint but i have either never noticed it or it simply does not happen - it is simply a moving average of 3 stochastics. But i understand what you are saying and probably would of asked the same thing myself. If you see it repainting or figure out how to make it repaint [if it is even capable of repainting] please inform me immediately, but i do not expect this to be an issue, or i hope anyway

[TheBeast]

Settings Stochastic3_v2

 

First off all thanks for sharing your method. Have been looking at and trading multi time frames for quite some time now. Haven't come across your indicator yet and looks interesting.

 

One suggestion I'd like to make is using 8,3,3 as settings instead of the 15,5,5. Reason being is that there will be many occasions where the current higher settings will not show divergence and the smaller will.

[syk1kz]

Going back further on EU shows a few signals but not many at all.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/1954/eurusdf.gif

 

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/9351/eurusd2.gif

 

this would of been very hard to deal with and its easy to look back and say oh i would of waited until the very end but i cant say with honesty i would of waited.

http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/9568/eurusd3.gif

 

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/9664/eurusd4.gif

 

If we go back just a touch further we can see that the setup above most certainly would of been ignored and possibly used to exit since we would of noted this setup first

i have remarked the top one again, you can also check the broker times at the bottom.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/215/eurusd5.gif

 

this would of been difficult to deal with, lets say you decided to enter and did enter in the boxed area somewhere with an entry price of around the yellow line [highly likely]

it would of all come down to your spread and stop loss, you maybe held it you maybe hit break even or maybe you decided to stay out

http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/5096/eurusd6.gif

 

Unfortunately trading is subjective and always will be. Nobody is ever going to get the same results as the next person due to many factors such as spreads, TF traded, Market hour we trade, what type of environment we are in when we trade - kids can be quiet a distraction, our trust or belief in the signals and willingness to execute. All of these come down to the individual and these are the factors that determine our success or lack of.

 

 

well this just destroyed my stoch in OB/OS for so long theory i was looking at implementing, moving along

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/3416/eurusd7.gif

 

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/3928/eurusd8.gif

 

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/3176/eurusd9.gif

 

http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/8954/eurusd10.gif

Edited December 11, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/8909/eurusd11.gif

 

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/1977/eurusd12.gif

 

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/429/eurusd13.gif

 

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/5034/eurusd14.gif

 

http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/9663/eurusd15.gif

 

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3750/eurusd16.gif

 

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9871/eurusd17.gif

 

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/8079/eurusd18.gif

 

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/235/eurusd19.gif

 

http://img573.imageshack.us/img573/9564/eurusd20.gif

[syk1kz]

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/1301/eurusd21.gif

 

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/1456/eurusd22.gif

 

Time for some breakfast, those charts cover just about all of December and November's signals what i didn't cover here will already be pasted on page 1

[syk1kz]

First off all thanks for sharing your method. Have been looking at and trading multi time frames for quite some time now. Haven't come across your indicator yet and looks interesting.

 

One suggestion I'd like to make is using 8,3,3 as settings instead of the 15,5,5. Reason being is that there will be many occasions where the current higher settings will not show divergence and the smaller will.

 

Hi TheBeast thanks for your comments. I would agree that lower settings show divergence a lot better than a higher value, This is something worth exploring if we wish to increase the signal frequency. The values are hard coded in and i did change them to 15,5,5 from the original value which i cannot remember. Having the option to change these values within the indicator would be great along with the option of choosing what time frames the indicator reads the stochastics from. For example i trade the M5 chart but i do not want M30 stochastics i want M1 M5 and M15 or M5 M15 and H1. I will post elsewhere and see if i can get this coded in by somebody.

[syk1kz]

i have added the option to change the %k %d on the MTF stoch indicator but i am not sure about the changing of the time frames, hopefully somebody will have a look at it, I have updated the first page with a new link to an updated copy of the system.

 

Also all of those charts i posted today assume you manually trail instead of accepting 1:1 RR, if you were simply aiming for 1:1 then just about all of those break evens are indeed winning trades.

 

Using the last image i posted as a visual back test with the lower stoch settings we get a different outcome all together, i have not spent time checking each signal i merely went for one of interest.

 

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/1456/eurusd22.gif

 

Compared to the upgraded indicator on a lower value.

 

http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/9657/eurusd23.gif

Edited December 11, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

Making a few small adjustments to the indicators. I think i have found a better indicator for the bottom stoch which also colours when it goes into OB/OS all it needs is an alert and then i am happy to update again. Here is a picture showing the difference. It hope this makes it easier to spot divergence compared to the one on the previous charts

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/5595/eurusd24.gif

[syk1kz]

I have been playing with a lower value of 5,3,3 to 15,3,3 then 5,4,4 to 15,4,4 and 5,5,5 to 15,5,5. At this stage i personally prefer the original higher settings. What i have noticed is if you put the MTF stochastics onto say 5,3,3 it totally kills the system in signal value. What i mean is there are almost zero valid signals and when they do come along they are no better than the higher value settings.

 

If anybody has found a better set of settings please post them so we can take a look. As it stands i am rolling with 15,5,5 / 30,10,10 & 15,3,3 / 30,6,6.

 

Getting this MTF indi customized so we could use M1, M5, M15 would be preferred i think but nobody has replied as of yet.

[syk1kz]

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/6249/eurusd25.gif

 

Looks like a potential long but there is no valid signal, Gap trading is something that was not considered when initially thinking of this system. Any thoughts?

 

I have updated the first post again with the newer indicator, it lacks an alert but the other one does alert when entering into OB/OS.

Edited December 12, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

Looking at the economic calendar i do not see anything worth data trading for well over 24hours.

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/

[syk1kz]

Butchered the indicator a bit to get it to read m1 instead of m15 when using the M5 time frame. not sure why the line didn't go coloured but just missed this one.

http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/9528/78487160.png