Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Personally, I'm not too fond of systems with set pip TP and SL levels, when these can be accurately calculated with fibs... and therefore survive any market condition.

 

Will implement both approaches though, and we'll see what works long term.

[soundfx]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Hi Rio,

 

I totally agree, however it's always simplest to use fixed TP's and SL's for starters (unless you already have some more dynamic reuseable code to hand :) ).

 

Thanks for looking into creating this EA as the coding would certainly be beyond my basic MQL skills. I'll get more actively involved in any forward testing we do.

[⭐ stingrayzz]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Mates if your going to use a s/r indicator use this one h**p://[email protected]/showthread.php?t=204276

It is much better than the barry one. The one from FF does repaint but not near as bad as the barry one.

Plus someone has already made an ea with the FF one at this link h**p://[email protected]/showpost.php?p=3410524&postcount=225

 

Cheers

[rockroll]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Why does Barry indicator repaint? It repaints simply because it is based on Fractals which takes the Highest High or Lowest Low from the center bar of every 5 bars.

Just load Fractals which comes as a stock indicator with any MT4 client and you'll see that it fits with Barry.

 

Just like to share a simple non-repainting s/r indicator that I wrote. It is based on highest high and lowest low of whatever custom period you want (default 6 period).

http://[email protected]/file/231903505/91f04c83/SRv1.html

The only thing that shifts is the current bar but that is to be expected. Put this on top of Barry and you'll see how this fits. Unlike Barry you can adjust the H/L period to suit long term or short term trading style.

[saendee]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

looks very interesting concept

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

I think I will just ditch the SR barry indicator, as it is so simple as to be implemented directly into the EA.

The kicker indicator on the other hand, is a bit of a cow to port straight into the EA, and so I will probably leave it hanging. I may incorporate i directly into the EA, but at this point I won't bother until I know I can get the strategy to work long term.

 

Also,... the kicker indicator has a number of inputs to control the responsiveness of the line. I am going to include some multi-time frame logics into the EA so that this can be tweaked if need be.

 

...but I am making progress here. Nothing works yet, but all the building blocks are more or less in place.

One EA on the chart will trade all timeframes simultaneously... which will either make you rich in double time or wipe the account out very quickly (whichever this strategy decides to achieve first :P )

 

I'm going to call th EA "Kick a**" if it's a winner, or "a** kicker" if it's a loser. ;))

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

I Say "Kick a**" ! :-bd

 

Harsh124

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Have a look at the situation on the 1HR chart of EURUSD.

(I wold post a chart, but II won't let me)

 

There was a 4 pips break down on that chart just recently with a red kicker, before the price flung itself all the way back up to Resistance and would have stopped our trade out.

the 4 pip break down actually touched a daily candle fib retracement and bounced off it... meaning that the original trade down was doomed to fail.

 

Kicker should also confirm on the higher timeframe before making a trade I think.

Just because the kicker is one colour, doesn't mean the angle of descent is any good. The angle could be so shallow as to flip back to yellow and reverse at any given moment.

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Yes I saw the possible signal, Most of the times Situations like these happens - That is why a definite Stop loss couldn't be implemented. But more than 95 % of times - The Price again Jumps up to give the Sure 10 Pip Profit. Just keep a check , there is a high probabilty of price jumping back up for our 10 pips.

 

Let's wait and watch how the market reacts to our thinking & this stratergy works BEST of GBP/USD.

 

Harsh124

[oktoeight]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Hi ,

 

i totally agree with RIO that the trades have to be filtered by watching the higher timframe situation - therefore i am attaching a Multitimframe indicator from my collection (going back to good old IGOR) which is basically the same as the KICKER, you just need to put it to the same settings as Kicker and will see.. (Kicker = HULL MOVING AVERAGE IMHO )

 

Now this can be used as a FILTER - i personally prefer the original settings of 15, but that could be optimized....

 

hope that contributes to the project :)

[soundfx]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Hi Rio,

 

It's fiddly to insert charts here. What I do is to screen grab them and then upload into Flickr and wrap that link with the "Img" tag.

 

Here's the price action you're referring to:

 

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4032/4397304967_b4ba73e99f_o.jpg

 

Looking at higher timeframes is always a good plan. We could also implement a rule which says don't trade if there is a fib retracement (or Fibo Pivot) within say 10 pips blocking the direction we want to place a trade in.

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Yep,.... that was the failure right there that I was referring to.... You would have entered a sell on the bounce from the daily 61.8 retracement (which, in classical fib trading, is an EXCELLENT position to enter a trade along with the trend) The Support resistance indicator bumps itself down to match the level on the doomed trade entry.

 

and you're right about the need to perhaps adjust the S/R when too close to established daily fib levels. Doing that would account for some fib confluence which would actually support the strength of the SR signals.

 

The kicker could be used for confirmation,... indeed the H4 and D1 were on an upswing.

 

Tthere's no reason why it couldn't just be replaced with the "Slope direction Line" indicator too... because they seem so similar. Not to mention that tweaking the indicator could bring vastly different results.

 

I am not a big fan of indicators for trading, simply because naked fib trading is way more accurate manually... it's just that calculating all fib levels can be an absolute cow, and fractals take a lot of the work out of it.

 

Will check out the megatrend stuff.

 

In essence, to do a proper EA justice, there's a lot more required than meets the eye... and unfortunately, it complicates things... and the more complicated the system, the less likely it is to work!

 

On the other hand,... I also considered the possibility that it might actually be more interesting that traded between bounces FROM the SR levels (with very tight SL in case the price actually broke through).

Perhaps, if we can get the first strategy working, adding this second one would make it extremely powerful.

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Yeah - Your staratergy seems quite powerful too - A good combination both solely used in an EA could mean a real Profit Buster! =D

 

Harsh124

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Yeah - Your staratergy seems quite powerful too - A good combination both solely used in an EA could mean a real Profit Buster! =D

 

Harsh124

 

Don't get too excited. Most EAs are crap.... remember that.

There's a reason for it.

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

 

Don't get too excited. Most EAs are crap.... remember that.

There's a reason for it.

 

Ohk - I'll bid good luck to you in the development process & Hope that we achieve our mission of Green Pips! =D

 

Harsh124

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

The Megatrend indicator is no different from the "Trend Slope Line" indicator.

Kicker at least shows neutral patches.

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Rio - What is the current status ? Can I be of any help ?

 

Harsh124

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Current status is I am still reviewing the trading system itself. I think I may even be able to get away with ditching the kicker indicator as it's not really necessary and simply rely on the SR levels --- but only as long as they are normalized to last daily fib level retracements and expansions. This should prevent bad trades from opening. TP is the 138 expansion of the move, measuring from the last support and resistance (or possibly two trades, with one attempting to hit the 161 as well -- taking breakeven at the 138 for safety) MINUS the spread (very important -- or we JUST miss our TP and watch as our trade hits SL)

 

There was some really good action on the EURUSD today on the 1HR charts. I would post a chart but I can't be bothered. Those who can be bothered will learn something.

 

If you fib yesterday's daily candle out first, and then see the SR levels painted on the 1HR chart, you'll see that every break of the red resistance indicator levels hit precisely on the fib 138 expansion of the distance between support and resistance. This is really good, and how we want to trade with fibs. Meanwhile, the support sits right down at the bottom.

 

The interesting behaviour happens on the 3rd move up where the indicator paints red resistance JUST before the daily fib 138 expansion (or target) before retreating. THIS is where we need to normalize the results from the SR indicator, or we will lose money. The SR is within 10 pips of the 138 level (which is our target), so for safety's sake, we pretend to use the daily 138 level as resistance and not what the indicator tells us.

 

The price retreats, just shy of our upwards target, and tests out a previous red resistance level, now being used as support (normal price behaviour) despite the fact that the blue support level has stayed very flat...., before catapulting itself back up to our 138 level... PRECISELY hitting it, before coming back down. Note how without moving the SR level to the 138 we would have triggered another trade upwards.... which would have failed on us. Instead, the price taps the level without breaking it.... scoring us our TP and saving us making an error.

 

The thing to also learn here is that once price action broke the previous resistance level, the price was COMMITTED to hitting the 138 expansion. That's why, despite falling off and testing the prior resistance level, price HAD TO fling back up and hit the 138!

 

The only real problem with this strategy is that, on occasion, we are going to end up with SLs bigger than our TPs.... but the trading is mostly accurate so it doesn't matter. Fingers crossed.

 

Another intresting strategy would be to take the trade from the bounce off the earlier resistance all the way up to the 138 TP area. Just how to do this in code still eludes me...

 

 

Now, I don't really think this strategy is going to work on anything less than a M15 chart, and possibly with nothing higher than a H1 chart.

That is to say, we will be using the previous daily candle fib levels to normalise SR... so any higher timeframe and we may end up having to use weekly and monthly candle fibs to normalize SR levels.... plus the time that the trade will be in drawdown will be massive.

Lower than M15 charts and the 138 expansions TPs just aren't worth the risk because of spread and low profits.

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Yes - Completely Agreed. I checked the charts - From what I understood , yeah .. the price really challenged the 138 Fib Level. And for the S/R , maybe we can use daily or weekly support & resistance & I found another interesting indicator which can give us simillar results.

 

Try using this - it doesn't repaint ( atleast from what I think so - Though you can try first ) - Its based on daily High Low , It draws the previous days High & Low and draws lines accordingly. So when the price breaks any of the above or below line, there is a potential trade - However - the trading frequency & overall profitabilty is less - This can be used as a BONUS trading system together with the current system. I have attached an image for more convenience .

 

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/1976/cap1v.jpg

 

For going short & Long ! I have outlined some boxes based on breakouts!

 

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/46/cap2b.jpg

 

For going long ! I have outlined some boxes based on breakouts!

The Indicator can be downloaded here :-

 

=> Links :- http://[email protected]/file/227486382/d78ab213/indicators.html

 

To Make this BONUS stratergy more precise, we can use a trend detection Indicator like the SRS Trend Indicator. After it shows a 'x' above the 10,000 Level it is a trend confirmation to an uptrend.

 

Tell me what's your take on that ?

 

Harsh124 :-bd

[flowerman]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

harsh124,

 

Hello harsh 124,

 

can I to purchase the full EA of you?

 

flowerman

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

I'll take a look at the indicator,... but probably won't need to use it in an EA. It's fairly simple to fib a candle with the right routine.

 

Also looking again at the EURUSD H1 chart. Yet again, that 138 area which caused so much contention in mylast commentary was broken fully again, and has cleared TP again at the 138 extension of the break of the SR.

 

Just like clockwork.

 

Now to code this beast.....

[harsh124]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

harsh124,

 

Hello harsh 124,

 

can I to purchase the full EA of you?

 

flowerman

 

Hey Buddy,

 

The EA is not made yet - Its a manual Stratergy which is in process of development in to an expert Advisor.

 

I'll take a look at the indicator,... but probably won't need to use it in an EA. It's fairly simple to fib a candle with the right routine.

 

Also looking again at the EURUSD H1 chart. Yet again, that 138 area which caused so much contention in mylast commentary was broken fully again, and has cleared TP again at the 138 extension of the break of the SR.

 

Just like clockwork.

 

Now to code this beast.....

 

Yeah - Go ahead with it & Keep in touch if you reach any milestone or need any help from my end!

 

Harsh124

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

Here's the support and resistance indicator with an added twist.

I've included the 138 expansion fib calculation to the support and resistance lines.... which should serve as take profits MINUS the spread. The opposite 138 serves as stop loss. It *should* never get hit if a legitimate break of the SR levels are taken out.... Please test that theory out yourselves.

 

http://www.4shared.com/file/234587295/df95d205/Support_and_Resistance_Rio.html

[samk090905]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

harsh or rio,

 

is there any way to recap the strategy here? when and how to use? that would be greatly appreciated. btw, i read thru the whole thread and at times it was diverted by the naysayers and became a little confusing. if you guys could clarify it would be great. thank you in advance: either way.

[Rio]

Re: Developing S/R Expert : Highly Profitable : 99 % Accuracy

 

I'm wrestling a little with the original system.

 

My system is to simply use my modified SR indicator, and once the price breaks the value of SR lines by 3 pips, to enter a trade in that direction, using the yellow dots as take profit (minus the spread - or your TP may miss and then the trade may lose on you), and the yellow dots on the other side as Stop loss. If the price hits stop loss, something is REALLY wrong (I haven't seen it happen yet in my limited manual backtesting)

 

Essentially, you get an oracle to where the price is going. You will see SR breaks in the past that are not yet "complete" to their TP levels, so you know that eventually that the price will test that level... it's just a matter of when.

 

The only problem with this system is that drawdown can be huge and last a long time. Accuracy is high, but TP is less than SL.... which is bad.

 

I'm still yet to code this. Only an EA backtest will see how effective this particular strategy is....