Daily Markets News From FBS

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Euro zone: strong PMIs

EUR/USD strengthend to $1.3260 following the release of unexpectedly strong French, German and euro zone's PMI indices.

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EUR/JPY: prospects

EUR/JPY rose today to the highest level since May 23 at 132.60. The outlook for the pair seems positive as long as the pair trades above the 129.80 (the uptrend support line from November 2012). The next target on the upside lies at 133.80 (May high).

If the single currency breaks below the support line, there will be some further support at 129.35 and 128.75 (top and bottom of the daily Cloud) ahead of June low at 124.95.

Commerzbank: “Shorter term (1-3 weeks): neutral to positive to the 133.80 May high. Medium term (1-3 months): neutral.”

There’s a small divergence on H4 chart, so there might be a chance to buy on the dips.

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

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July 24: weak Chinese PMI

EUR/USD is trading on the downside, just above $1.3200 after reaching $1.3280 yesterday. US dollar was weaker yesterday as lower US economic indicators bolstered the argument for the Fed to delay a reduction in QE. Euro was supported before data predicted to show services and factory output in the euro area contracted at the slowest pace in more than a year. Watch the releases at 07:00-08:00 GMT. GBP/USD is capped by the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at $1.5380.

Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI disappointed the Asian markets, coming below the forecast at 47.7 and hitting at 11-month low (forecast: 48.6, previous: 48.2). AUD/USD dropped from $0.9320 to $0.9240. Australia Q2 CPI came unchanged at +0.4% q/q (vs. expected +0.5%), while the core reading came a bit above the forecast. NZD/USD fell from the high of $0.8010 to $0.7950. New Zealand June trade balance improved to $414M (vs. $105M expected). Tonight RBNZ holds its monthly monetary policy meeting.

USD/JPY strengthened by 40 pips to 99.90. Japan trade deficit for June rose to 180.8B yen (vs. expected is 155.7B). USD/CHF strengthened to 0.9360. USD/CAD recovered from 1-month low at 1.0280 to 1.0300. Canadian dollar strengthened yesterday after a report showed retail sales in May increased at the fastest pace in 3 years, fueling speculation the economy may be improving.

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July 25: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading on the upside in the $1.3215 area after it reached $1.3256 yesterday, but failed to hold there. On Wednesday firstly euro and then US dollar got support from encouraging manufacturing PMI data. Today in the euro area watch Spanish unemployment rate at 07:00 GMT, German Ifo business climate at 08:00 GMT (forecast: 106.3; previous: 105.9) and M3 money supply figures. Late today in the US don’t miss core durable goods orders and jobless claims at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD is trading on the upside in the $1.5340 area. This week the pair’s capped by the levels below $1.5400. UK will release today at 08:30 GMT preliminary Q2 GDP growth (forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.3%).

USD/JPY is trading in the negative zone around 99.90, down from the yesterday’s high of 100.45. Later in the day Japan is scheduled to release Tokyo core CPI (forecast: + 0.3% y/y, previous: +0.2% y/y). The figure is expected to show improvement for a third month in a row, reaching the highest level since 2011. USD/CHF continues a range-bound trade around 0.9360.

NZD/USD soared to $0.7990 as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. The regulator expects to keep the rate low through to the end of 2013, but in future “the removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed”. According to RBNZ Governor Wheeler, kiwi still remains overvalued. AUD/USD is consolidating around $0.9165 following the yesterday’s sharp drop to $0.9133. USD/CAD is once again trying to test levels below 1.0300. Yesterday the pair hit 1-month low at 1.0262, but then managed to close at 1.0309.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3115, $1.3200, $1.3235, $1.3250, $1.3300;

GBP/USD: $1.5200, $1.5300, $1.5400;

USD/JPY: 98.80, 99.25, 99.75, 100.00, 100.50, 100.90, 101.00, 101.75, 101.95, 102.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9150, $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9280;

USD/CAD: 1.0215, 1.0235, 1.0250, 1.0300;

EUR/GBP: 0.8570, 0.8575, 0.8585;

AUD/JPY: 92.10.

[⭐ kaito kid]

July 25: European session

EUR/USD dropped from $1.3235 to $1.3180 despite the relatively positive German Ifo business climate and Italian consumer confidence. July German Ifo improved and came almost in line with expectations (106.2 vs.106.1 expected and previous 105.9). It seems that the market was overheated by optimistic expectations following the yesterday’s strong PMIs.

Figures also showed that July Italian consumer confidence increased to 97.3 (forecast: 96.0). EMU’s M3 money supply rose below forecasts during June and private loans contracted further during the same period.

We have witnessed a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact reaction in GBP/USD: the pair firstly rose to $1.5378 on the expectation that UK economic growth has accelerated to 0.6% in Q2 from 0.3% in Q1, but then slid to $.1.5314 as the data came in line with forecasts. By the moment of writing sterling has recovered to $1.5330.

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Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Sell at $1.3215 with at target of $1.3128 and a stop at $1.3263

USD/JPY: Short at 99.90 with a target of 98.88 and a stop at 100.65

GBP/USD: Long at $1.5175 with a target of $1.5436 and a stop at $1.5260

USD/CHF: Possibly buy, but lower

AUD/USD: Look to sell

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0290 with a target of 1.0445 and a stop at 1.0230

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: daily update

Cable tried to push higher in the Aisan session, but was once again capped by the $1.5390 resistance (61.8% Fibo, daily Ichimoku). Later on GBP/USD dropped as the market was overinspired by optimistic UK GDP predictions. The Q2 reading improved and came in line with forecasts at +0.6% q/q.

As can be seen from the H4 chart, cable is now testing the strong support at $1.5280 (50% Fibo from the June-July rally, 100-day MA). One may see that the pair has recently broken the rising wedge pattern on a downside, what is a bearish sign. The next important support is seen at $1.5220, $1.5200 and $1.5170 (38.2% Fibo, H4 Ichimoku), while resistance - at $1.5475 and $1.5530.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

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USD/JPY: daily update

As we’ve expected yesterday, USD/JPY rose above 100.00 to turn down again near 100.50, close to resistance line from May highs. Today the pair has been trading between the 100-period MA (H4 chart) in the 100.00 area and the 55- period MA at 99.80.

We expect the pair to remain in the consolidative mood fluctuating around 99.95. Support is at 99.80/70 and 99.40 (support line from July lows). We think that the latter will limit the declines in the short term as the series of higher lows shows that the bulls are unwilling to give in. Below that watch 99.14 (July 23 low) and 98.75 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud). On the upside resistance lies at 100.18, 100.45, 100.60, 100.80 and 101.00. The rise avove 101.40 is needed for US currency to test may highs at 103.70.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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USD/CHF: technical update

As we’ve forecasted in our last review on Tuesday, USD/CHF remained in consolidative mode. On the daily chart the fight between bears and bulls is taking place between the bearish Ichimoku Cloud ($0.9380) on the upside and the 200-day MA on the downside ($0.9358).

There’s a kind of a falling wedge on H4. An increase above the resistance line connecting July 15 and 19 highs might bring the pair up to 0.9535. Resistance lies at 0.9405, 0.9440 (50% Fibo) and 0.9480. Still there’s scope for more declines. Support lies at 0.9350, 0.9322 and 0.9300. Downside targets lie at 0.9278 (76.4% Fibo) and 0.9250.

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

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July 26: Asian session

US dollar is ready to extend its decline versus its main counterparts for the third week. The reason is the same – expectations that the Fed will reassure investors at next week’s meeting that policy will remain accommodative. Today is light on economic data. America will release revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index – a light upward change is expected.

EUR/USD rose yesterday to new 1-month high just below $1.3300. Today euro is in the $1.3280/90 area. GBP/USD is trading on the upside, just below $1.5300. Yesterday sterling reached $1.5433. USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9280.

USD/JPY dropped to 98.60. Japan June national core CPI rose by 0.4% (forecast: +0.3%, prior 0.0%), while Tokyo core CPI came in line with forecasts at +0.3% (prior: +0.2%). According to the Japan’s economy minister Amari, prices are increasing because of the consumption-driven economic recovery. On Sunday Japan is scheduled to release retail sales figures (forecast: +0.8%, highest since 2012).

AUD/USD extended the upside, strengthening to $0.9276. NZD/USD recovered to the yesterday’s highs around $0.8100. USD/CAD keeps testing uptrend support line. The pair’s trading in the 1.0275 area.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100, $1.3170, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3300;

GBP/USD: $1.5250, $1.5270, $1.5375;

USD/JPY: 99.50, 100.00, 100.50, 101.00, 101.05, 102.00, 102.10;

USD/CHF: 0.9350;

AUD/USD: $0.9150, $0.9250, $0.9265, $0.9270, $0.9305;

USD/CAD: 1.0235, 1.0300;

EUR/GBP: 0.8575, 0.8580, 0.8600.

[⭐ kaito kid]

BMO: summer trading

Analysts at BMO point out that in 2011 and 2012 when everyday trade was determined by the swings between the risk-on and risk-off and the main events were connected with the central banks’ emergency measures and political risks. This summer, however, the situation seems different and the markets are driven by the macroeconomic data. “Conditions should remain whippy within reasonably tight ranges for the balance of the summer”, says BMO.

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Stock market: update

Nikkei 225 closed in red and JPY is rising. European markets opened with gains.

Thank you, Bloomberg, for the data)

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GBP/USD: daily update

GBP/USD slipped from the yesterday’s peak of $1.5430, consolidating slightly below the $1.5400 mark (around 61.8$ Fibo). On early Thursday bears tried to pull the cable lower following the UK GDP release, but met support at $1.5260. Cable is now sitting at the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.

We see that the $1.5400 mark still remains very strong. Clear fix above this level could open the way to $1.5530 (76.4% Fibo). Many specialists say that the pair has some more room for growth ahead of the US Fed meeting next week. On a downside, slide below $1.5280 would confirm the double top formation, opening the way for a deeper decline.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

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AUD/USD: daily update

Support in the $0.9130 managed to hold yesterday and the bulls made another attempt to bring AUD/USD to the upside. Aussie approached $0.9290.

Australian dollar got support from H4 Ichimoku Cloud and rose above the 200-period MA. The pair has a chance to recover to $0.9305, $0.9325 (June 11 low), $0.9370 (23.6% Fibo of the decline from April) and $0.9400.

We don’t expect a sustainable recovery though. Support lies at $0.9260, $0.9220 and $0.9150.

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

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EUR/USD: flat on highs

On Friday EUR/USD is quietly consolidating in a flat $1.3270/90 range following the Thursday’s sharp upward move. Yesterday the pair closed the day above the previous $1.3260 (76.4% Fibo) resistance as the markets are anticipating a dovish tone of the next week’s FOMC meeting.

There are several preconditions for a bearish reversal, but the US dollar still remains weak. Next resistance for the pair lies at $1.3300, $1.3330 and $1.3400/15. These levels are widely expected to cap the upside. Support is now seen at $1.3260, $1.3240, $1.3200 and $1.3160.

Today’s economic agenda is pretty light, except for the revised UoM consumer sentiment in the US.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3260 with a target of $1.3338 and a stop at $1.3219

USD/JPY: Sell at 99.90 with a target of 97.75 and a stop at 99.50

GBP/USD: Long at $1.5175 with a target of $1.5480 and a stop at $1.5285

USD/CHF: Look to sell from 0.9340/50

AUD/USD: Look to sell

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0290 with a target of 1.0445 and a stop at 1.0230

[⭐ kaito kid]

July 29: Asian session



Demand for US dollar is limited before a private report forecast to show sales of previously owned US homes fell (14:00 GMT) and the Fed starts a 2-day meeting tomorrow.

EUR/USD is still capped by $1.3000. Traders await US data and guidance from European stocks before that. GBP/USD is constrained below $1.5400.The UK will release net lending to individuals data at 08:30 GMT and CBI realized sales at 10:00 GMT. USD/JPY is trading in the slightly negative zone around 97.90. Japan June retail sales disappointed the markets, contracting by 0.2% m/m (vs. +0.8% expected). USD/CHF holds around 0.9285.

AUD/USD touched $0.9290, but then edged lower to $0.9255, staying almost flat. Tonight Australia is scheduled to release building approvals data; RBA governor Stevens delivers a speech. NZD/USD is consolidating around $0.8080. Data over the weekend showed China industrial profits increased by 6.3% y/y in June, slowing from +15.5% in May. USD/CAD is still holding above the 100-day MA at 1.0265.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3300, $1.3350;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.35, 98.25, 98.30, 98.40, 99.50, 99.75, 100.05;

GBP/USD: 1.5335 1.5375 1.5490 1.5500

USD/CHF: 0.9400

AUD/USD: $0.9240, $0.9275, $0.9350, $0.9375;

USD/CAD: 1.0200, 1.0280, 1.0380;

EUR/JPY: 131.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.8565, 0.8630, 0.8675;

EUR/CHF: 1.2350, 1.2450.

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USD: factors to watch Jul 29-Aug 2

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JPY: factors to watch Jul 29-Aug 2

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AUD: factors to watch Jul 29-Aug 2

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EUR: factors to watch (July 29 - August 1)

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Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3260 with a target of $1.3338 and a stop at $1.3248

USD/JPY: Short at 99.90 with a target of 96.95 and a stop at 99.50

GBP/USD: Long at $1.5175 with a target of $1.5480 and a stop at $1.5285

USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9320 with a target of 0.9176 and a stop at 0.9365

AUD/USD: Long at $0.9230 with a target of $0.9416 and a stop at $0.9170

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0290 with a target of 1.0445 and a stop at 1.0230