Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, September 30, 2013 - 15:55

Weekly. The formation of the wave [iI] is close to an end.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. The pair has almost finished upside impulse in the wave (С).

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The marking at Н4 shows that we are witnessing the formation of the final upside wave [5]. After this wave is complete, the pair may start a new downtrend.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23468-gbpusd-volnovoy-analiz

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 1: Asian session

US dollar weakened against most major peers after a partial shutdown of the US government began as the wrangling between Senate Democrats and House Republicans threatened to stunt growth at a time when the central bank is weighing a tapering of stimulus.

EUR/USD is trading on the upside. The pair tested $1.3550, though it’s still below yesterday’s high at $1.3556. Watch the European data at 07:15-07:55 GMT. GBP/USD rose to $1.6246, the highest level since Jan. 3. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 08:30 GMT (forecast: 57.5; previous: 57.2).

USD/JPY tested 98.78, but then slid to 98.00 handle. Yen fell briefly after the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey beat economists’ estimates, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the sales tax would rise to 8% in April. USD/CHF is trading on the downside staying just above the recent lows at 0.9020.

AUD/USD rose from $0.9314 to $0.9400. Australian dollar strengthened as the Reserve bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and the nation’s retail sales came slightly higher than expected. NZD/USD is trading around $0.8300 after it tested $0.8270 earlier today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.0310 after reaching 1.0330. Canadian dollar touched a 4-day high after a report showed gross domestic product increased at the fastest pace in 2 years in July.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/561

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3575, $1.3580, $1.3590, $1.3600;

GBP/USD: $1.6130, $1.6170;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.50, 97.95, 98.00, 98.20, 99.00, 99.30, 100.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9320, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0310;

NZD/USD: $0.8260, $0.8345;

EUR/JPY: 133.50;

EUR/GBP: 0.8350;

EUR/CHF: 1.2245.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/562

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD retreated from daily highs

EUR/USD retreated from today’s high at $1.3587 to levels around $1.3540. Euro was discouraged by weaker-than-expected European data (Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs, lower German employment change, higher German and Italian unemployment rate). There’s divergence on H4 MACD and RSI.

Support lies at $1.3500 and $1.3450. Resistance is at $1.3568, $1.3587 and $1.3600.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/563

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD: shutdown delays tapering

ANZ: “Any undue fiscal drag coming from the shutdown would imply tapering that is further away and that’s probably a USD negative. The yen, the pound and, to a lesser extent, the euro have all benefited from the uncertainty as those currencies are reserve currencies with financial markets that can accommodate a flight to quality.”

ING: “Risk assets have been sold off in the last few days ahead of the actual news of the shutdown. It’s already priced in. The consensus view is that the government can remain shut down for a little while. They will come back and revisit ahead of the debt ceiling debate. Both sides will act in time to avert a catastrophic outcome.”

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/675

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 3: EUR at 8-month high

Thursday, October 3, 2013 - 06:53

EUR/USD keeps attacking $1.3600. Yesterday the pair reached this handle, but then closed at $1.3577. Today euro rose to 8-month high at $1.3523. US dollar declined as US government’s partial shutdown continued, adding to concern it will slow economic growth and postpone a tapering of monetary stimulus. Demand for euro rose before a report forecast to show retail sales in the currency bloc rose in August (09:00 GMT). GBP/USD is trading on the upside above $1.6200, though below yesterday’s high at $1.6250 and below Tuesday’s high at $1.6260.

USD/JPY rose to 97.78 from yesterday’s minimum at 97.14. Yen declined as Asian stocks rallied. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan swung 1% higher. Share markets find comfort in expectations major central banks might now have to keep monetary policy super-loose for longer and also in an upbeat survey on China’s huge services sector. USD/CHF is trying to hold above 0.9000. AUD/USD is consolidating below $0.9400. NZD/USD is trading below resistance in the $0.8430/40 area. USD/CAD touched 1.0317 after yesterday’s spike up to 1.0356.

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-03/23511-oct-3-eur-8-month-high

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3660;

GBP/USD: $1.6170, $1.6175, $1.6200, $1.6350;

USD/JPY: 97.25, 97.50, 98.20, 98.25, 98.80, 99.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9280, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9465;

EUR/GBP: 0.8290, 0.8380;

EUR/AUD: 1.4490.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/571

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD around $1.3600

EUR/USD bulls keep pushing to the upside. As Italian Prime Minister Letta won the confidence vote yesterday, concerns about Italy’s political stability eased. The tone of the ECB on Wednesday wasn’t as dovish as the market had been expecting, so there’s the room for euro’s appreciation. The market’s focus turned from the euro zone back to the US government shutdown.

Services PMI results in the euro area, France and Italy surprised investors in September while the German reading missed the median, but was better than in the previous month. European retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3% (previous: 0.1%).

The pair’s now moving sideways in the $1.3600 area. The daily high’s at $1.3623 for now. Resistance: $1.3630, $1.3660, $1.3711. Support: $1.3505, $1.3500, $1.3470.

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/572

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: keep long targeting $1.3711, stop is moved up to $1.3537;

USD/JPY: buy at 96.93 targeting 98.30 with stop at 96.38;

GBP/USD: keep long targeting $1.6380 with stop at $1.6160;

USD/CHF: keep shorts targeting 0.8931 with stop at 0.9105;

AUD/USD: possibly buy;

USD/CAD: short at 1.0330 targeting 1.0182 with stop at 1.0382;

NZD/USD: buy at $0.8270 targeting $0.8436 with stop at $0.8190.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/685

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: are high levels justified?

Many analysts expected GBP/USD to fall significantly below $1.48 this year. However, pound rose by 7% since April and is now trading at the highest levels since January above $1.6200. This is about 3 cents higher than this year’s average. Yet, many specialists keep saying that such high value of GBP may be unsustainable given the state of the UK economy.

Morgan Stanley (forecast for the year-end: $1.50): “Sterling is starting to look a little more over-extended. There are some longer-term risk factors that could come back and put sterling back under some pressure.”

HSBC (forecast for the year-end: $1.45): “A drop in real earnings, or wages adjusted for inflation, will weigh on the UK recovery and the pound.”

Commerzbank (forecast for the year-end: $1.63): The reduction in short-pound positions was “brought about mainly by U.S. dollar weakness.”

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/687

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: outlook for gold

Gold prices gained yesterday on the speculation that the Fed will delay reducing monetary stimulus amid the first US government shutdown in 17 years. XAU/USD has bounced of $1,270 area for the second time.

There will be no Non-Farm Payrolls release this Friday, so the market players will have to make guesses about the state of US labor market. ADP employment report revealed that private sector added just 166K jobs in September versus 180K expected. US jobless claims, on the other hand, came better than expected. It would be harder for the market players to make Fed tapering projections without. Still US budget problems allow expecting weaker USD.

Technical picture still points out to the downside risks given the break of the rising channel and the longer term bearish trend. There’s significant resistance around $1,350. This may be a hard obstacle for the bulls. Above this level look for an advance to $1,375 and $1,400. Support is located at $1,300. Failure here might give the bears power to retest the recent lows.

Chart. Daily XAU/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/688

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 4: Asian session

US government remains partially shut down, and the release of the key jobs report (NFP) is delayed. So, the outlook for when the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus became even more uncertain.

EUR/USD reached $1.3646 yesterday. Today the pair’s trading on the upside, on the $1.3630 area. German PPI kept contracting. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6150/70 area after it declined from levels above $1.6200 yesterday.

USD/JPY is just above 97.00. The pair’s trading on the downside for the fourth day in a row. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.8990/80 area after it slid below 0.9000 yesterday.

AUD/USD rose to $0.9445. Aussie rose amidst a totally empty data calendar day regarding both the Australia and the US. NZD/USD returned above $0.9300. USD/CAD keeps consolidating above 1.0300. The pair’s trading in the narrowest range since April as the market players are concerned about the situation in the US, Canada’s largest trading partner.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/574

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3500; $1.3550; $1.3575; $1.3585; $1.3600;

GBP/USD: $1.6050;

USD/JPY: 97.25, 97.85, 98.00, 98.10, 98.25, 99.00;

USD/CHF: 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.9000, 0.9100;

AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0390;

EUR/GBP: 0.8375, 0.8450;

AUD/JPY: 0.9100.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/576

[⭐ kaito kid]

Commerzbank: AUD may retest $0.9510/25

Analysts at Commerzbank claim that AUD/USD may retest $0.9510/25 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the decline from April to August and the recent high) and probably to $0.9580 (May 2012 low), $0.9665 (June high) and $0.9715 (50% Fibo). According to the specialists, support lies at $0.9383 and $0.9233. Below the latter, Aussie will be vulnerable for a slide to $0.9182 (55-day MA) and potentially back to below $0.9000.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/689

[⭐ kaito kid]

Why doesn’t US government reopen?

President Barack Obama canceled visits to Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei planned this week.

The US government remains partially shut for the fourth day as Obama and Republicans battle over funding. The President met with Congressional leaders from both sides on Wednesday. However, according to the comments, both sides are unwilling to compromise and blame each other for this situation.

The White House later issued a brief statement, urging Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner to put the budget to an open vote in the House of Representatives, where a bipartisan majority would likely pass it instantly.

That might not be so simple, however. Moderate Republicans have said they think they could provide enough votes to join with minority Democrats and push a bill through the House reopening the government with no restrictions on the health care law. But under pressure from House Republican leaders, they failed to join Democratic efforts on Wednesday aimed at forcing the chamber to consider such legislation.

If the shutdown persists, it could become entangled with the even more consequential battle over the debt limit. If the Congress doesn’t renew the government’s authority to borrow money by Oct. 17, US may announce a default.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/575

[fxapex]

What will be the effect on USD if the US shutdown persist.....

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 7: no progress in the US

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 10:30

There was no progress on US deadlock over the weekend. EUR/USD opened with a small gap up at $1.3562 after closing at $1.3552 on Friday. Euro area will release final Q2 GDP at 09:00 GMT. No revisions are expected (+0.3%). GBP/USD is trading around $1.6030 after it lost about 130 pips on Friday. EUR/GBP slid from nearly a 1-month high before the Bank of England’s policy meeting this week on Oct. 10.

Demand for Japanese yen and Swiss franc as safe havens increased as US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew renewed his call for extending the nation’s debt limit to avoid a default as America will run out of its ability to borrow on Oct. 17. House Speaker John Boehner said the US could end up in default unless President Barack Obama negotiates. USD/JPY is trading on the downside, just above 97.00. USD/CHF declined to 0.9040 after rising to 0.9080 on Friday.

AUD/USD touched $0.9450, but then eased down to $0.9415. Aussie got hit after the World Bank cut China 2013 growth outlook from 8.3%to 7.5%. NZD/USD is trading on the downside in the $0.8300 area. According to New Zealand’s finance minister Bill English, NZD is ‘still too high’. USD/CAD is testing levels above 1.0300. Canada will release building permits at 12:30 GMT.

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23536-oct-7-no-progress-us

[⭐ kaito kid]

What will be the effect on USD if the US shutdown persist.....

the answer is simple, the main currency pairs such as the euro and the pound will strengthen

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 12:56

Weekly. The formation of the corrective wave (b) is close to an end.

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

Daily. Wave (b) took the form of a horizontal Triangle. Now we see the formation of wave e of the Triangle, which takes the form of a double Zigzag.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. Wave 5 of © of [y] is taking shape of the Ending Diagonal Triangle. In the near future we expect the construction of a rising wave 5. After the wave [y] is complete, we expect a new downtrend to start.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23541-eurusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:09

Weekly. The pair completed the formation of the corrective wave [iI].

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. Wave [iI] took form of a flat, which is fully equipped with the waves of the junior level.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. Here’s a detailed layout of the last section. In the near future pound is expected to continue a downtrend.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23542-gbpusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:13

Daily. The pair keeps forming corrective wave , which is taking the form of an extended horizontal correction.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. The wave (D) may be complete. If this assumption is true, we will soon see an increase in the wave (E). However, there is an alternative scenario: the decline in the wave (D) continues, as reflected in the following chart.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. The chart shows the detailed layout of a rather complicated area. You have to be very careful in such a market. Both versions of the upcoming move are shown at the picture.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23543-usdjpy-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:25

Weekly. The downward impulse wave III keeps unfolding.

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. Presumably the wave [4] has been fully formed. If this is true, we will soon see a decrease in the impulse wave [5].

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

H4. The waves (1) and (2) of the downward movement are complete. In the near future we expect a decline in the wave (3). However, in this situation, we shouldn’t forget about the alternative scenario. If the pair renews the maximum of wave [4], we’ll see a continuation of the upward movement in the wave [4]. You have to be very careful with the sales.

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23544-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 8: Asian session

Concerns about the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling negotiations are mounting. EUR/USD didn’t reach $1.3600 yesterday and slid to $1.3560 today. Watch for German factory orders at 10:00 GMT (forecast: 1.2%; previous; -2.7%). In US the speeches of the Fed’s Pianalto and Plosser will be in the limelight. GBP/USD is trading on the downside at $1.6070. Pound’s consolidating after the yesterday’s mini-rally gains of around 85 pips on the news that optimism in the UK’s financial industry improved in Q3.

USD/JPY tested levels below 200-day MA at 96.60 as US President Barack Obama reiterated he won’t negotiate with Republicans over the borrowing limit, but then recovered above 97.00 as investors still believe that the United States will manage find a solution in the end. Yen fell as Asian stocks snapped a 2-day decline, damping demand for safer assets. Japanese current account surplus turned out to be lower than expected. USD/CHF rose a bit to 0.9050. Switzerland will release inflation and retail sales data today at 07:15 GMT, while the SNB President Jordan will speak at 16:00 GMT.

AUD/USD has once again tested $0.9450, but then returned 20 pips lower. Aussie’s supported by the solid Australian data, but capped by risk-off sentiment created by American problems. NZD/USD keeps consolidating around $0.8400. USD/CAD is pushing higher towards resistance in the 1.0340 area. Canada will release trade balance at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed yesterday.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/582

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD spiked down

GBP/USD spiked down to $1.6020 on the misleading headlines that the Bank of England announced long-term refinancing operations (LRTO); in reality this was a misreporting of routine repo operation. For now the pair returned to the levels just below $1.6100.

Support is at $1.6019/15, $1.6000, $1.5978, $1.5955. Resistance is at $1.6100, $1.6130, $1.6150.

Chart. H1 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/584

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: positions of the banks

Goldman Sachs: short from 97.30 for a tactical target of 94.00, with a stop on a close above 98.00.

Commerzbank: short from 98.27 with a revised stop at 98.30, and a target at 95.85.

Credit Suisse: long from 96.85 with a stop at 95.65 and a target at 99.10.

Goldman Sachs: short from 97.30 for a tactical target of 94.00, with a stop on a close above 98.00.

Commerzbank: short from 98.27 with a revised stop at 98.30, and a target at 95.85.

Credit Suisse: long from 96.85 with a stop at 95.65 and a target at 99.10.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/698