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Flash: AUD strengthened modestly overnight on RBA commentary - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable overnight.

Key Quotes

“The Australian dollar has strengthened modestly supported by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe who stated overnight that “the threshold for intervention though is fairly high”.”

“However, he didn’t “rule intervention in or out” which has been a long-standing practice for the RBA. Noting that “in the past, we have been prepared to intervene in the currency market when it’s clear the currency was misaligned or the market wasn’t working well.””

“The speech also highlighted the main economic challenge the Australian economy now faces as it “can no longer depend on rising terms of trade and favourable demographics” to boost living standards which will require an offsetting pick up in productivity.”

“It echoes recent comments from the Australian Treasury’s top economic forecaster David Gruen, who stated that Australia should brace for the weakest income growth in half a century in the coming ten years.”

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Nov 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY: BoJ minutes lift yen from lows

FXstreet.com (London) - The yen has made some recovery from yesterday’s lows on minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October meeting.

USD/JPY has depreciated 0.14 percent so far today to JPY101.4335.

The minutes indicated that central bank officials saw risks to the Japanese economic outlook. Board member Sayuri Shirai proposed to add to the BoJ’s semi-annual Outlook report the phase "attention should be paid to downside risks" given concerns over US economic activity and the Japanese domestic market.

Board member Takahide Kiuchi, who has been vociferous in pushing for the BOJ's 2 percent inflation target to more flexible, proposed the inclusion of the statement that prices are "likely to continue on a moderate rising trend."

Risk rally out of yen

The yen yesterday tested six-month lows on increased risk appetite following the signing of Iran’s accord on nuclear activities.

As part of the agreements concluded in Geneva yesterday morning, Iran will freeze or roll back its uranium enrichment programme to levels which would signal that Iran was not preparing to enrich to weapons grade.

In return, around USD7bn of international sanctions will be raised.

The risk on rally pushed USD/JPY to JPY101.88.

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Nov 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD resilient between ECB and Fed – Rabobank

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, commented that the current uncertainties regarding the start of the Fed’s QE tapering and the ‘wait-and-see’ stance in the ECB would likely be behind the EUR/USD resilience.

Key Quotes

“Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD”.

“Although the Fed did not rule out tapering in December in its October policy meeting, we suspect that the Fed will remain on hold until March and that the USD will take its time in clawing itself back to stronger levels. This implies that the ECB will have little choice but to retain its dovish threats”.

“Even so we expect that EUR/USD will remain well supported at least into year end and most likely until it is clear that the Fed are on the brink of tapering. We see risk of EUR/USD holding above the 1.30 area until H2 next year”.

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Nov 26,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Sterling exports needs EZ – TDS

FXstreet.com (London) - Marcin Budkiewicz, Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities, noted that there were no shocks in the second print of UK GDP and even in the details were largely in line.

Key Quotes:

“There was a bigger drag from exports than expected, which can still be another decent boost for the UK should the Eurozone get back to growth”.

“The September services numbers were slightly weaker at +0.2% M/M instead of 0.4% M/M, but not enough to meaningfully bias the handoff to Q4”.

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Nov 27,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD losing 1.63 handle

FXstreet.com (London) - The dollar rallied after a number of US data readings beat expectations.

GBP/USD is sub 1.6300 again with consumer confidence rebounding 75.1 vs 73.5. Meanwhile, strategists at TD Securities note that decent growth numbers were near consensus however for the UK, and it seems the outsized GBP rally also had a lot to do with a break of key resistance at 1.6240/50. “A close above that level would add to bullish momentum”.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6073, the 50 DMA is 1.6083 and the 200 DMA is 1.5522. RSI (14) reads 73.76. Supports are ascending from 1.6093, 1.6110,1.6134,1.6168, 1.6210, 1.6241 and 1.6260. Spot is 1.6277 while key resistance is 1.6380 on the upside.

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Nov 27,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD out of consolidation?

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD has rallied higher on up beat US data and has broken out of the consolidative range of 1.0560 acting as previous resistance.

Meanwhile, strategists at TD Securities said there is little on the domestic front (September Average Weekly Earnings) to drive the CAD so focus will remain on external issues and flows. USD/CAD traded heavily earlier in the week as the market backed off the upper 1.05 area but the lack of downside follow-through suggests the market is consolidating, rather than reversing the mid-November rally. We remain bullish on the near and longer-term outlook for funds (we target 1.06 for end 2013… near-term but we think that minor dips remain a buy.

USD/CAD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.0468, the 50 DMA is 1.0390 and the 200 DMA is 1.0321. RSI (14) reads 67.50. Supports are ascending from 1.0414, 1.0436, 1.0480, 1.0516, 1.0550. Spot is currently 1.0594 while resistances are 1.0609, 1.0658 and 1.0674.

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Nov 27,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR, year-end squeeze a growing risk - TDS

FXstreet.com (London) - A research team at TD Securities said the EUR might have found a modest bid on the back of news that Germany finally has a government but the void since the September election has hardly been a factor in the past couple of months so we doubt the news was that significant for investors.

Key Quotes:

“Moreover, chatter of further ECB easing steps has not weighed on the EUR at all today. While we remain broadly bullish on the USD outlook over 2014, the risk of a short-term squeeze higher in EUR/USD that we have highlighted remains alive”.

“Since 1999, December has been one of the better months of the year for EUR/USD, delivering a near 2.5% average gain. Even when the outsize rally in late 2008 is removed, average gains are still nearly 2%”.

“With EUR/USD through the November 20 high (date of the negative depo rate story), the risk of further, near-term EUR gains is rising”.

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Nov 27,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EU Business Climate (November): 0.18 vs -0.01 (October)

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Nov 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY has 103.74 in it’s sights – UOB Group

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group comments that the next USD/JPY target at 103.74 will likely come under threat sooner than expected

Key Quotes

“The high of 102.28 early this morning came close to the bullish target highlighted at 102.53 on Monday.”

“The strong upward momentum suggests that a break above this level is likely and the next target at 103.74 (this year’s high) will likely come under threat sooner than expected.”

“The key support has moved higher quickly to 101.00 and as long as this level is intact for the next few days, a break of 102.50/55 could be the trigger for a sharp acceleration towards the year’s high at 103.74.”

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Nov 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD extends recovery to fresh highs

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has managed to advance Thursday, snapping a 7-day losing streak, supported by rising stocks and domestic data.

The AUD/USD regained the 0.9100 mark after stronger than expected Q3 capex data, and following a phase of consolidation below 0.9140, renewed buying took the pair above the 100-hour SMA to a fresh high of 0.9149. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9135 zone, recording a 0.6% gain Thursday.

AUD/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, the AUD/USD could find next resistance levels at 0.9149 (daily high) and the 0.9200/0.9204 zone (psychological level/Nov 26 high), while supports are seen at 0.9064 (Nov 27 low) and 0.9036 (Sep 4 low).

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Nov 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE Carney shifts lending focus from home buyers to SMEs as house prices accellerate

FXstreet.com (London) - Bank of England governor Mark Carney today announced that the central bank would be moving to strongly rein in its policy to support mortgage borrowing as house prices begin to further accelerate.

The Bank of England launched the Funding for Lending scheme in June last year in tandem with the Treasury to prop-up lending to home buyers and small businesses.

Under the Funding for Lending scheme, banks and building societies are able to access cheap credit from the central bank as a carrot to encourage them to lend.

However, with the UK economy strongly outperforming forecasts, the BoE is set to pare the scheme back to focus on support for small businesses struggling to gain access to credit.

"Although the growth in household loan volumes remains modest, activity is picking up and house price inflation appears to be gaining momentum," wrote Carney in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

"We should refocus the FLS so that it continues to support lending to the business sector, without adding further broad support to household lending at a time when that is no longer necessary."

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Nov 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

UK November Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) rises to 6.5%; 0.6% (MoM)

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Nov 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD buoyed by confidence indicators - OCBC Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that EUR/USD was buoyed by supportive November confidence indicators.

Key Quotes

“The pair may continue to capitalize on any potential dollar weakness into the end of the week pending the EZ CPI data release later today.”

“EUR/USD upside in the near term continues to show a healthy restraint and the pair may remain capped at 1.3650 with the 55-day MA (1.3554) expected to support on dips.”

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Nov 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) down to -1% in October; -2.2% (YoY)

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Nov 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD finds support ahead of 1.6300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD found support at the 1.6310 area and halted the downward correction that started after the pair printed a fresh 11-month high of 1.6373.

Coupled with a technical correction, the GBP came under pressure during the European session in the wake of disappointing UK mortgage and lending data and slid to a low of 1.6313 versus the USD. However, the GBP/USD managed to bounce and it is currently trading at the 1.6335 zone, virtually unchanged on the day, ahead of an empty (in the data front) NY session.

GBP/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that GBP/USD maintains the overall bullish tone as, despite extreme overbought readings, corrective movements remain shallow.

"Further gains should be expected on price accelerations beyond 1.6380 yearly high, eyeing then the 1.6425/40 area, where the pair presents several daily highs and lows from August/September 2011", says Bednarik. "To the downside, main support comes around 1.6290, and a break below it may favor a downward correction towards 1.6250, albeit this latter should again attract buyers if reached".

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Nov 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: GDP (Sep.) expanded 0.3% MoM

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Canadian economic activity expanded 0.3% on a monthly basis during September. At the same time, the Canadian economic activity expanded at an annual pace of 2.7%, surpassing estimates at 2.5% and the previous 1.6% expansion (revised from 1.7%).

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Nov 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Sterling higher ahead of Autumn Statement - Societe Generale




Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that the pound has broken through key chart levels this morning against EUR, CHF and USD.

Key Quotes

We remain short EUR/GBP and long GBP/CHF. RSIs and momentum indicators in GBP/USD look stretched, but we also expect solid PMI data at 9:30 GMT and Thursdays Autumn Statement is an opportunity for the Chancellor to make optimistic noises about the economic recovery.

I expect the BOE to go on pouring cold water on the idea of rates going up in 2014,but I also expect an investment bank economic department or two to forecast an earlier than expected move.



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Dec 02,2013
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD bounces after strong UK manufacturing PMI

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD rebounded from daily lows after UK Markit Manufacturing PMI came in above forecast in November.

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 last month from 56.5 printed the previous month (upwardly revised from 56.0) and beating expectations of 56.0. The Cable was lifted toward the 1.6425 area from below 1.6400, although momentum was short-lived and the pair pulled back afterward. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6405 zone, still up 0.2% on the day.

GBP/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, "The minor corrective pattern below 1.6370 was well bid at 1.6313 low and the uptrend has been renewed, reaching a new local high at 1.6441", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "The bias remains positive above 1.6385 intraday support, for next leg upwards, toward 1.6613 resistance area. Crucial on the downside is 1.6313 low".

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Dec 02,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD bounces after strong UK manufacturing PMI

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD rebounded from daily lows after UK Markit Manufacturing PMI came in above forecast in November.

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 last month from 56.5 printed the previous month (upwardly revised from 56.0) and beating expectations of 56.0. The Cable was lifted toward the 1.6425 area from below 1.6400, although momentum was short-lived and the pair pulled back afterward. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6405 zone, still up 0.2% on the day.

GBP/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, "The minor corrective pattern below 1.6370 was well bid at 1.6313 low and the uptrend has been renewed, reaching a new local high at 1.6441", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "The bias remains positive above 1.6385 intraday support, for next leg upwards, toward 1.6613 resistance area. Crucial on the downside is 1.6313 low".

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Dec 02,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY nears 103.00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY extended gains into a fourth day Monday and advanced to fresh 6-month highs, despite the negative tone in stocks.

USD/JPY hits fresh 6-month peak

The USD/JPY climbed to a high of 102.80 during the European session and continues to threaten recent highs, eyeing next resistance at the 103.00 area. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 102.75 zone, recording a 0.3% gain on the day.

USD/JPY technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if the USD/JPY breaks above 102.80 (daily high), next resistances are seen at 103.00 (psychological level) and 103.55 (May 23 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 102.20 (daily low) and 102.00 (psychological level) ahead of 101.14 (Nov 26 low).

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Dec 02,2013

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Dec 02,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD dips below 1.3550. What’s next? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The single currency abandoned the area around 1.3600 at the beginning of the week, with the EUR/USD falling through the 1.3550 level despite the solid PMI data from the euro zone.

“The EUR-USD has to contend with a busy data calendar this week as well as the ECB meeting on Thursday. In the interim, an increasingly supported tone may persist, with 1.3653 the next visible resistance while the 55-day MA (1.3558) is expected to offer good support in the current environment”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, observed “… near term strength continues to be viewed as corrective and we continue to view the pattern as a potential rising wedge pattern. The top of the pattern is at 1.3627 and a close below 1.3471 will complete it. We look for the 1.3295/94 zone to be retested (current November low and the 50% retracement of the move up from July).

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Dec 02,2013

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Dec 02,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: GBP/USD has NOT closed above 1.6370 - Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that she made an error yesterday – the did NOT close above the 1.6370 December 2012 high.

Key Quotes

“This attempt higher was seen in fairly thin market conditions and ONLY a CLOSE above 1.6370 will persuade us that there is scope for a move to 1.6634/16735.”

“Every time frame is implying that this is in fact the end of the upmove, and the 60 minute chart is suggesting intraday rallies will now fail 1.6275/85.”

“The daily RSI has not confirmed the new high and we will watch price action around the 1.6259/55 previous highs from October, as failure here will cast attention back to the 5 month uptrend at 1.6029. A close below here will re-target the 1.5855 November low.”

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Dec 03,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session Recap: USD retreats across the board

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The dollar trades lower versus most competitors Tuesday while the pound is outperforming underpinned by a solid UK construction PMI reading.

The EUR/USD managed to advance but stalled at the 1.3575 zone, while the USD/JPY pulled back after hitting a fresh 6-month high of 103.37 amid profit taking. The GBP/USD was boosted to a high of 1.6436, a few pips shy of its last week's peak after the UK construction PMI reached a 6-year high.

The AUD/USD managed to erase early losses after dipping to the 0.9055 area in the wake of the RBA decision to leave policy unchanged. The AUD/USD was last up 0.2% at the 0.9125 zone while the USD/CAD was little changed at 1.0638, having printed a high of 3-year high of 1.0663.

During the New York session, watch for ISM New York index, Redbook, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index and total vehicle sales.

Main Headlines in Europe:

UK: PMI Construction grows to 62.6 in November

EMU: Annual PPI drops 1.4% in October

Flash: What’s the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

EU's Rehn: Recovery still fragile in some parts of Europe

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Dec 03,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD rejected near 1.6440

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The sterling is rapidly picking up pace against the greenback on Tuesday, pushing the GBP/USD to the vicinity of 2013 peaks near 1.6440, although losing some vigour afterwards.

GBP/USD buoyed by data

Better results from Monday’s manufacturing PMI and today’s construction PMI have been supporting the GBP bullish momentum, ahead of the BoE MPC meeting and the Autumn Statement Forecast due later in the week. In the wake of the string construction PMI, analysts at BBH observed that “It is encouraging the market to increase the odds of a rate hike by early 2015 as reflected in the short-sterling futures contracts. It leaves tomorrow's services PMI to round out the trifecta that will point to an acceleration of the UK economy into the end of the year.

GBP/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.38% at 1.6417 facing the next hurdle at 1.6443 (2013 high Dec.2) followed by 1.6455 (high Aug.29 2011) and finally 1.6500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a break below 1.6315 (low Nov.29) would aim for 1.6277 (low Nov.28) and then 1.6260 (high Oct.1).

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Dec 03,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD consolidates near 3-year high

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD retreated a tad and turned flat for the day after hitting its highest level since August 2010 during the European session.

The USD/CAD peaked at 1.0663 but lost momentum and retreated slightly to enter a consolidation phase contained by 1.0630 on the downside over the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0655 zone, still up 0.1% on the day and with only second-tier data scheduled for the NY session.

USD/CAD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate resistances at 1.0663 (daily high) and 1.0669 (Aug 31 2010 high) followed by 1.0678 (Jul 5 & 6 2010 highs) and 1.0700 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0630 (daily low) and 1.0600 (psychological level).

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Dec 03,2013

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