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USD/JPY rallies on declining yen safety demand



FXStreet (London) - USD/JPY has rallied through the session so far after data released overnight indicated that the Chinese economy slowed less than consensus expectations in the first quarter. The slower than expected deceleration in Chinese growth damped demand for yen safety.


Official Chinese GDP data released overnight showed that growth had fallen to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth represents the lowest level since the third quarter of 2010. Despite the weak numbers, Chinese growth held above consensus expectations of a slow down to 7.3 percent year-on-year.


Japanese stimulus chatter


In addition, against the recent yen strength as well as declining equity markets, speculation has mounted that the Bank of Japan is preparing to intervene with an expansion of its current stimulus measures to fight deflationary pressures. In testimony before the Japanese parliament, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda attempted to quash those rumours and played down the longer-term importance of recent stock market declines.


Japanese deflation concerns have increased following the implementation of a sales tax hike earlier this month.


The next BoJ meeting is on 30 April when the central bank will release its latest long-term economic forecasts.


USD/JPY rallies through morning session


USD/JPY is currently trading at JPY102.2850. The pair has consolidated between JPY102.18 and JPY102.3800 after steadily rallying through the morning session. The pair has gained 0.45 percent on the opening of JPY101.8515.







Apr 16, 2014

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Potential for further GBP strength medium-term - Investec




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, sees the possibility of the GBP to keep the firm footing.


Key Quotes


"The major headline yesterday came on the UK’s unemployment release. The UK unemployment rate ticked under the 7.0% forward guidance threshold to 6.9%, meaning the Bank of England will now alter the focus of their policy stance towards eliminating spare capacity."


"To put this into perspective, when Governor Carney assumed the helm last July, the BoE forecasted the unemployment rate to dip below 7% around the start of 2016, although their latest forecasts from February envisaged unemployment at 6.9% in Q1. Unemployment is now closing in on the BoE’s medium term estimate of unemployment of between 6-6.5%, meaning that that measure of slack is closing, although the new forward guidance means the BoE is now considering a range of indicators not just the unemployment rate."


"Wage growth was also shown to have strengthened further in another positive sign that the economic recovery remains on track. GBPUSD shot up through 1.6800 and followed through overnight to print a four year high at 1.6837 and confirms the GBPUSD up-trend is still intact."


"GBPEUR traded up through 1.2150 back to levels seen in early March before ECB President Draghi disappointed the market with inaction at the monthly policy meeting. With the pound still on a charge, any easing of policy by the ECB next month could likely see GBPEUR print new highs on the year."







Apr 17, 2014

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NZD/USD falls below 0.8600




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD is falling on Thursday and recently reached a fresh daily low at 0.8577. The Kiwi is among the worst performers so far and remains under pressure across the board.


Yesterday the NZD/USD managed to finished far from the lows and recovered some weekly losses but the upside was short lived and after the Asian session resumed the downside.


NZD/USD testing weekly lows


Recent slide found support at the 0.8575/80 area, that also capped the downside yesterday. Spot is currently trading at 0.8589, down -0.38% on the day so far.


Below 0.8575 the NZD/USD would be trading at the lowest level since April 4. Next support could be located at 0.8545 (April 2 low) and 0.8510/15 (April 3 low). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.8610 (Asian session low) and above here at 0.8650 (daily high).







Apr 17, 2014

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AUD/USD pressuring against daily lows




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar is trading on the defensive Thursday, with the AUD/USD having lost nearly half a cent from Asian session highs.


The AUD/USD is currently threatening daily lows, weighed by gold and stocks pullback. However, the downside remains contained by the 0.9335 area, with the Aussie having printed a low of 0.9336 so far and could remain that way as stocks begin to recover.


AUD/USD technical levels


At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9340 zone, recording a 0.29% loss on the day, with next supports lining up at 0.9331 (Apr 16 low) and 0.9300 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9286 (20-day SMA). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9389 (Apr 17 high), 0.9423 (Apr 15 high) and 0.9460 (Apr 10 high).







Apr 17, 2014

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USD/JPY glued to opening levels




FXStreet (Córdoba) - After reaching a fresh 10-day high during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pulled back and settled around its daily opening levels, where it has spent the last hours.


The USD/JPY retreated from a high of 102.56 and entered a consolidative phase amid low volume given that most financial markets remain closed for the Easter weekend. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.38, virtually unchanged since opening.


USD/JPY technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.56 (Apr 18 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be found at 102.34 (Apr 18 low), 102.00(psychological level) and 101.85 (Apr 17 low).







Apr 18, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk refuse to vacate occupied buildings




FXStreet (Łódź) - The talks between Ukrainian, Russian, EU and US leaders in Geneva, aimed at finding a solution to the Ukraine crisis ended in an agreement that efforts will be made to reach a peaceful settlement. The deal delays the imposition of further sanctions on Russia by the West, but this state of affairs may not last long as pro-Russian separatists have already refused to comply with the agreement.


Under the deal, pro-Russian militants are required to disarm and cease the occupation of government buildings in Ukraine, in exchange for amnesty. Kiev on the other hand is to undertake public consultations on constitutional reform.


The success of the agreement has been put into question already on Friday however, as the pro-Russian separatists occupying government buildings in Donetsk refused to vacate them.


“We will lay down our weapons only if the National Guard and other Ukrainian military structures stop attacking us, and if we and our families feel safe,” one of the militants leaders told the Interfax news agency today.


Meanwhile, Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatsenyuk said that the parliament was prepared to approve the amnesty bill for protesters, but that he wouldn't hope for a definite resolution of the crisis.


Many voices were raised asking about the effectiveness of the EU and US response to Russia's aggressiveness and their unwillingness to use force. The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team believe that even though Ukraine and NATO have already responded to Russia's moves, by strengthening forces in the region, no such thing should be expected from the US, which “will not sanction a confrontation with Russia over areas in Europe where it does not have a defense treaty or any strategic interests.”


Despite the skepticism about the validity of the agreement on Ukraine, Russian shares rose by 2.2% in Friday, which is the biggest increase in three weeks.


Economic data


The only piece of important EMEA data released on Friday was Hungary's Gross Wages, which showed 1.7% growth year-on-year in February, up from the 0.9% rise recorded the previous month.


Technicals


The Russian ruble fell against the central bank’s basket of dollars and euros to 41.6574 on Friday, following a 1.4% increase on Thursday. USD/RUB is up 0.25% at 35.5617.


On Thursday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 45 at the last close and rose to 51 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3290 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4105 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.6023, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7553.







Apr 18, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Chile's central bank holds rates steady in April




FXStreet (Łódź) - Chile's central bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, during which it decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 4%, in line with forecasts. The recent pickup in inflation was the main reason for staying on hold.


Nevertheless, in the statement released after the decision was announced, the central bank signaled its readiness to reduce rates further: “The board will consider the possibility of making additional cuts to the policy rate in line with the evolution of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions and its implications on the inflationary outlook.”


The Banco Central de Chile cut borrowing costs four times over the last six months: from 5% to 4.75% in October, then to 4.5% in November, to 4.25% in February and to 4% in March. Meanwhile, inflation started accelerating above 3%, the the midpoint of the central bank's target, reaching 3.2% in February and then 3.5% in March.


Economic data


Brazil released its Unemployment Rate on Thursday, which showed a slide to 5% in March from 5.1% in February, against expectations of a rise to 5.4%.


Brazil's April Mid-month Inflation was also published, revealing a 0.78% increase, up from 0.73% seen previously.


Technicals


The Chilean peso was at 557.26 against the dollar on Thursday, down 11% since the October rate cut. On Friday it was almost unchanged at 557.35.


USD/BRL was down 0.67% at 2.2370 today. On Thursday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 45 at the last close, and has declined to 40 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 407 pips, with ATR (14) at 271 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3065, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2540.







Apr 18, 2014

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EUR/USD ends the week lower




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD corrected lower this week and is on track to close with losses, having retreated from levels above 1.3900 scored last Friday.


The EUR/USD slowly pulled back from above 1.3900 to bottom out at 1.3789 and settled in a range over the last sessions, closing the last 3 days almost unchanged. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3816, on track to post a 0.47% weekly loss.


Next week, the US will release a string of housing sector figures along with durable goods orders data.


EUR/USD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3822 (Apr 18 high/100-hour SMA), 1.3863 (Apr 17 high) and 1.3882 (Apr 11 closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3796 (21-day SMA), 1.3782 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).


EUR/USD technical outlook


Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, noted that the daily chart shows the EUR/USD remains above the long term daily ascendant trend line coming from 1.2755, July 2013 monthly low, around 1.3750 for the upcoming week. "As long as above this level, risk to the downside remains contained, while below the pair may attempt a test of the 1.3640/60 strong static support zone. But it will only be with a break below this latter the pair will lose its upward potential".


"Weighted by words, the pair failed to close the weekly opening gap as said before, still waiting there in the 1.3890 price zone: it will take a price acceleration above this last to confirm a retest of the year high in the 1.3966 region, while once above market will be looking to test the critical 1.4000 level".







Apr 18, 2014

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USD/CAD prints fresh daily highs




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD rose to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session following the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, although it lacked follow-through to stage a steepest rally.


The USD/CAD climbed to a peak of 1.1029, surpassing its Friday's high, and it was last at 1.1025, virtually unchanged on the day. On the upside, the 1.1045 area, April top, stands as immediate resistance to clear.


USD/CAD technical perspective


"We think USD/CAD has done enough to steady and improve going forward from a medium-term technical point of view and feel that a firm base is developing now below 1.0950. We look for a better bid tone to emerge for funds as North American trade picks up today", said the TD Securities analyst team. "USD-supportive US-Canada spreads in the belly of the curve suggest limited downside and more upside potential (towards 1.13) in the near-term. We think gains through 1.1060/70 will be supportive for the near-to-medium-term outlook for USD/CAD".







Apr 21, 2014

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GBP/USD breaks below 1.6800 to daily lows





FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is extending losses against the US Dollar as the GBP/USD just broke the 1.6800 in the American opening bell and now it's pricing at daily lows around 1.6790.


Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6793, flat on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6821 and low at 1.6782.


GBP/USD levels


If the pair remains below the 1.6800 area, the GBP/USD would face supports at 1.6775, 1.6750 and then 1.6720. On the upside, resistances are at 1.6805, 1.6815 and 1.6840.







Apr 21, 2014

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USD/JPY fails to sustain gains





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY failed to sustain gains and pulled back from 2-week highs during the European session as the greenback weakened broadly as volume returns to normal after the long weekend.


The USD/JPY peaked at 102.71 and retreated to a low of 102.40 before finding support and settling in a slim range where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.52, a few pips below its opening price.


In the macroeconomic domain, the US will release Feb housing price index and Mar existing home sales.


USD/JPY technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.71 (Apr 22 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are seen at 102.41/37 (Apr 22 low/50-day SMA) and 102.00 (psychological level).







Apr 22, 2014

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US: Existing Home Sales down to 4.59M in March





FXStreet (Łódź) - US Existing Home Sales were at 4.59M in March, down from 4.60M in February the National Association of Realtors informed on Tuesday. Analysts projected a 4.55M result.


This is a change of -0.2% from last month.







Apr 22, 2014

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The AUD/USD tears apart the 0.9370





FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie jumped above the 0.9370 following the latest set of upbeat economic data including housing and manufacturing index in the United States and the consumer confidence in the Eurozone.


After rallying around 20 pips from 0.9355 in the latest few minutes, the AUD/USD broke above previous highs of 0.9370 and it has reached fresh daily highs at 0.9380. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9371, up 0.47% on the day.


AUD/USD levels


Above the 0.9380, the AUD/USD would face next resistances at 0.9390, 0.9425 and 0.9460. On the downside, supports are at 0.9320, 0.9310 and 0.9270.







Apr 22, 2014

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USD/CAD soars to 2-week highs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD bounced to the upside from 1.1000, despite better-than-expected economic data from Canada and climbed to 1.1042, reaching the highest price since April 3. Currently trades at 1.1035/37, up 0.23% from today’s opening price.


USD/CAD rebound sharply at 1.100


After the release of the wholesale sales report of February in Canada, that rose 1.1% above the 0.7% expected, the USD/CAD fell to 1.1000, the lowest price since last Friday.


When it was ready to break the trading range and the 1.1000 mark, that limited the price since the beginning of the week, reversed sharply and jumped. Price broke above 1.1030, the upper limit of the range and rose quickly to 1.1042.







Apr 22, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Colombia steps up dollar purchases





FXStreet (Łódź) - This week Colombia's Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas announced that the country's central bank would increase its dollar purchases, following the considerable strengthening of the peso over the last month.


The currency has been propped up by an increase in foreign investment in Colombia's financial markets. Today the peso was trading around 1,938 against the greenback, compared with around 2,040 one month ago.


The central bank's dollar purchases in its daily spot market interventions, averaging 10 million dollars a day, have been boosted by 80%.


The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team comment: “To be clear, the central bank is still working within the $1 bln purchase program for Q2 that it set at its March meeting but is just front-loading it and responding to increased inflows.”


“Fresh inflows are in part related to the increase in weighting of Colombia in the JPM local currency bond index. We think that 1900 is the line in the sand (for now). If the EM rally continues, they can slow the move but not stop it.”


Economic data


Mexico's annual 1st half-month Inflation, released on Thursday, slowed down to 3.53% in April from 3.76% in March, increasing expectations that the country's central bank will remain on hold for the rest of the year in order to prop up the economic recovery. 1st half-month Core Inflation jumped to 0.26%, from 0.11%.


On Wednesday Banco Central do Brasil informed that the Brazilian Foreign Exchange Flows increased to 3.38B from 1.00B


Technicals


USD/MXN was up by 0.33% at 13.1072 at the moment of writing. On Wednesday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 47 at the last close, and has risen to 74 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 318 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 726 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 13.0660, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 13.0740.






Apr 24, 2014

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USD/CHF retreats from 0.8850





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF rose after the release of US economic data to 0.8855 reaching a fresh daily high but quickly lost momentum and pulled back sharply, erasing gains in a few minutes. The US dollar weakened also gains the other European currencies.


Currently the pair trades at 0.8818, down 0.18% for the day so far, after falling almost 50 pips since the beginning of the American session.


USD/CHF and a strong barrier around 0.8850/60


Once again the area around 0.8855 capped the upside, just like it did in the previous three trading days. The USD/CHF was rejected again from those levels and so far it has been able to hold above Wednesday’s lows that lie at 0.8806.






Apr 24, 2014

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