Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 18 2013

G20 statement settles on generalities; approval to keep selling the Yen?
The G20 weekend meeting and its final statement settled again on generalities, with key passages posing little risk to neither discredit nor criticize ongoing Japanese polices, where no specific mention was noticed. As Sean Callow, Westpac FX strategist, notes: “G20 statements always reflect the difficulty in reaching agreement among nations with often quite diverse policy approaches, settling on generalities with little risk of shaking up markets. Once again, for FX markets, the Moscow statement offered only a modest tweak compared to the Nov 2012 Mexico City statement”

Some key FX-related passages obtained from the statement can be found below: – “We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes”. – “We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility…” – “We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. In brief, as Forexlive editor Eamonn Sheridan, notes: “If policy is aimed at achieving results in the domestic economy then its OK. Of course, it is difficult to gauge whether domestic policies are, or are not, aimed at weakening the currency.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-18-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | China. FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-18 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Dec)
2013-02-18 14:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-02-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News
2013-02-18 05:37 GMT | EUR/USD faces worsening technicals/fundametals
2013-02-18 04:25 GMT | GBP/USD deepens below 1.5500
2013-02-18 03:20 GMT | Next RBA move likely coming in May – NAB
2013-02-18 02:42 GMT | USD/JPY stalls below 94.20 stops



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33585 | LOW: 1.33254 | BID: 1.33447 | ASK: 1.33453 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 02:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Positive tone establishment is limited to the next resistive means at 1.3357 (R1). Break here is required to allow further strengthening towards to our immediate targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3325 (S1). Medium-term downside expansion would then be targeting marks at 1.3303 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3357, 1.3379, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3325, 1.3303, 1.3282

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.5508 | LOW: 1.54713 | BID: 1.54926 | ASK: 1.54934 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08 : 02:25



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Price action looks mainly consolidative, though violation of our resistance at 1.5512 (R1) would be a signal of possible uptrend formation with next expected targets ahead at 1.5536 (R2) and 1.5559 (R3). Downwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation on the downside today though break of next support level at 1.5471 (S1) might extend easing towards to expected targets at 1.5449 (S2) and 1.5425 (S3) levels.

Resistance Levels: 1.5512, 1.5536, 1.5559
Support Levels: 1.5471, 1.5449, 1.5425

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.216 | LOW: 93.708 | BID: 93.990 | ASK: 93.998 | CHANGE: 0.58% | TIME: 08 : 02:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at the fresh high – 94.21 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gain would then be targeting last resistance at 94.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 93.83 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.68 (S2) and 93.51 (S3) later on.

Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.38, 94.54
Support Levels: 93.83, 93.68, 93.51

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 19 2013

Draghi: Exchange rate is not a policy target
ECB head Mario Draghi visited the European Parliament on Monday to take part in two hearings before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, one on the central bank’s monetary policy and the second on systemic risk. He assured that the exchange rate is not the central bank’s policy target, but that it is important for the evaluation of price stability and growth. This way Mario Draghi referred to the G20 meeting held last weekend, which focused on the issue of currency manipulation and during which the participating nations pledged to refrain from resorting to competitive currency devaluation.

He also said that Europe “entered 2013 in a more stable financial environment than in recent years” but at the same time he warned that the risks to the European economy were still tilted to the downside. He listed the weakening of exports, the failure to timely implement structural reforms by EU governments and geopolitical issues as the three main threats. Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB’s monetary policy stance would remain accommodative.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-19-2013/


Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Feb)
2013-02-19 17:15 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
2013-02-19 23:00 GMT | Australia. CB Leading Indicator (Dec)
2013-02-19 23:50 GMT | Japan. Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-19 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD unable to close weekly opening gap below 1.55
2013-02-19 05:26 GMT | Yen recovers as Japan rhetoric eases
2013-02-19 04:48 GMT | Can the Euro suffer a butterfly-like effect?
2013-02-19 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD ready for a tactical rally towards 1.2470 – ANZ



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33648 | LOW: 1.33385 | BID: 1.33511 | ASK: 1.33517 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08 :01:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.3366 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the consolidation formation after its initial decline on the longer term perspective. Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3336 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3320 (S2) and 1.3302 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3366, 1.3384, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3320, 1.3302

--------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.54797 | LOW: 1.54608 | BID: 1.54737 | ASK: 1.54748 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08 : 01:56



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument trades under the descending channel formation, though market recovery is possible above the next resistance level at 1.5487 (R1). Break here is required for further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5536 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly indicators show negative readings, as both moving averages still pointing down. Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.5453 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5428 (S2) and 1.5404 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5487, 1.5512, 1.5536
Support Levels: 1.5453, 1.5428, 1.5404

------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.955 | LOW: 93.564 | BID: 93.626 | ASK: 93.630 | CHANGE: -0.35% | TIME: 08 : 01:57



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Currently USDJPY is losing -0.35% however medium-term bias remains positive. Next on tap is resistance level at 93.76 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to the next target at 93.92 (R2). Final immediate resistance is seen at 94.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price regress below the support level at 93.55 (S1) the instrument has an increased likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 93.40 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to 93.25 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.76, 93.92, 94.08
Support Levels: 93.55, 93.40, 93.25

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Software | Forex Basics | Forex ECN Trading Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 20 2013

Australia: RBA Sees the Medicine Starting to Take, But Is It?
After a year-and-a-half of cuts in its cash rate, Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at its recent meeting citing a firming in economic growth. We are not convinced and cannot rule out more rate cuts. Australia’s economy has outpaced many of the world’s advanced economies in recent years in addition to having mostly sidestepped the worst of the global slowdown of 2009. Having said that, the economy has not been without its challenges. More recently, these headwinds have come from abroad. The sovereign debt situation in Europe has had knock-on effects in other parts of the global economy, particularly in China, Australia’s number one export partner.

While the Australian economy continues to grow, the pace of that growth has slowed in each of the past two quarters. In fact, the 1.9 percent annualized growth rate in Q3 2012 was the second weakest outturn for economic growth in Australia since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been acutely aware of the weakening in growth and has steadily reduced its benchmark lending rate, the cash rate, a total of 175 basis points over the past year and a half. The RBA’s decision to stay on hold at its meeting earlier this month surprised some market watchers who had anticipated another rate cut. Minutes from the February meeting of the RBA offer some perspective behind the decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.00 percent.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-20-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-02-20 13:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 19:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes

Forex News
2013-02-20 05:54 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly lows above 93.10
2013-02-20 05:27 GMT | EUR/USD escapes bear calls; next target at 1.35
2013-02-20 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5420, off 7th consecutive daily lower low
2013-02-20 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD rallies on RBNZ warnings



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34337 | LOW: 1.33825 | BID: 1.34130 | ASK: 1.34138 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 08 : 01:29



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market strengthening is the likely scenario after the price finally established directional movement yesterday. A local high has been set at 1.3434 (R1), break here is required to enable route towards to next targets at 1.3450 (R2) and 1.3466 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3396 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to the bearish side and validate our next visible target 1.3380 (S2) en route towards to final support level at 1.3364 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3434, 1.3450, 1.3466
Support Levels: 1.3396, 1.3380, 1.3364

---------------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.54508 | LOW: 1.54204 | BID: 1.54387 | ASK: 1.54398 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 01:30



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Bank of England Minutes at 09:30 GMT might bring additional volatility to the markets. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.5454 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 1.5489 (R2) and if market holds its upside momentum last resistance could be found at 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 1.5415 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 1.5381 (S2) and potentially even 1.5347 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5454, 1.5489, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5415, 1.5381, 1.5347

--------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.822 | LOW: 93.137 | BID: 93.222 | ASK: 93.228 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 08 : 01:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today and currently lost -0.36 % in its price value. Never the less clearance of next resistive structure at 93.35 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 93.50 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 93.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: The base of the descending channel formation offers an important supportive mark at 93.11 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate next intraday targets at 92.97 (S2) and 92.82 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.50, 93.63
Support Levels: 93.11, 92.97, 92.82

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013


FOMC Minutes: Some Fed officials consider eventual QE pullback

Minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting showed several officials
think the bank should be prepared to vary the pace of its asset
purchases, depending on how the economy performs and its analysis of the
costs and benefits of the program. As shown by the minutes, officials
worried that the Fed ultra-loose policy could lead to instability in
financial markets. The Fed plans to evaluate how the programs are doing
at its next meeting March 19 and 20 where officials will consider major
changes to its quantitative easing program. Some FOMC members consider
the Fed might have to taper or even end its bond-buying programs before
reaching the current goal of a substantial improvement in the labor
market. However, others officials argued that ending QE too soon would
damage the economy.


“A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the
efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the
Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a
substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had
occurred,” the minutes said. During the meeting, several Fed officials
expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk taking by
investors due to the Fed’s accommodative policy. Officials even
discussed the idea for the Fed to replace asset purchases with a promise
not to sell assets for a longer period than currently envisioned.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented at the January
meeting, citing concerns about financial stability. The Fed will meet
next on March 19-20.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-21-2013/


Forex Economic Calendar

2013-02-21 08:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Services PMI (Feb)

2013-02-21 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

2013-02-21 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)

2013-02-21 15:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)


Forex News

2013-02-21 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD pounded below 1.5200

2013-02-21 05:43 GMT | USD, JPY enjoy follow through in Asia

2013-02-21 04:58 GMT | USD/JPY below 93.50 on more BoJ-related jawboning

2013-02-21 03:58 GMT | GBP/JPY selling off to fresh Feb lows


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

------------------

EURUSD


HIGH: 1.32892 | LOW: 1.32354 | BID: 1.32380 | ASK: 1.32389 | CHANGE: -0.34% | TIME: 08 : 00:18




OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down

TREND CONDITION: Down Trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High


MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Excessive losses provided yesterday clearly determined
medium-term negative bias though rise above the resistance at 1.3306
(R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next
target at 1.3332 (R2). Further market increase above it would face
final resistive structure at 1.3356 (R3). Downwards scenario:
Technically situation is clear. Fresh low at 1.3235 (S1) offers a key
supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it
would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3213 (S2) and 1.3190 (S3) in
potential.


Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3332, 1.3356

Support Levels: 1.3235, 1.3213, 1.3190


------------------------

GBPUSD


HIGH: 1.52395 | LOW: 1.51312 | BID: 1.51494 | ASK: 1.51505 | CHANGE: -0.55% | TIME: 08 : 00:19




OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down

TREND CONDITION: Down Trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High


Upwards scenario: New portion of macroeconomic data releases might
increase volatility later on today. Our resistances at 1.5303 (R2) and
1.5355 (R3) could be exposed in case of possible recovery action. But
first, price is required to overcome our key resistive barrier at 1.5250
(R1). Downwards scenario: Resuming of negative tendency might occur
below the key support level at 1.5131 (S1). Break here would open road
towards to next supportive measure at 1.5081 (S2) and final bastion
could be found at 1.5031 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 1.5303, 1.5355, 1.5250

Support Levels: 1.5131, 1.5081, 1.5031


------------------------

USDJPY


HIGH: 93.862 | LOW: 93.351 | BID: 93.427 | ASK: 93.432 | CHANGE: -0.16% | TIME: 08 : 00:20




OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral

TREND CONDITION: Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium


Upwards scenario: In current price setup it is hard to determine
prevailing market direction. Our next resistance stays at 93.63 (R1).
Market expansion towards to next targets at 93.77 (R2) and 93.91 (R3)
looks reasonable if the price manages to overcome it. Downwards
scenario: Pair has been trading sideways. Depreciation below the support
at 93.29 (S1) level might likely push the pair lower and enable our
interim target at 93.15 (S2). Any further market decline would then be
limited to psychological support at 93.00 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 93.63, 93.77, 93.91

Support Levels: 93.29, 93.15, 93.00


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Currency Trading Blog | Forex Training and Tips | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 22 2013

Social unrest against austerity measures rises in Europe

Greece and Bulgaria are in the main focus on Wednesday as dissatisfaction with the tough austerity measures pushed the people in both countries to protest in the streets.S&P warned that Cyprus might be downgraded to CCC+ and finally default. BoE Minutes revealed that Governor Mervyn King was outvoted on QE extension. Angela Merkel and Mariano Rajoy were also on the wires. Greek workers took part in the first general strike of the year. They protested against the reduction of wages and tax increases. Gsee y Adedy, two main labor unions which organized the strike, believe that the measures adopted by the government aggravate the situation in the country where the unemployment rate reached 27%, while youth unemployment stands at 60%.

The violent protests in Bulgaria on Tuesday, suppressed brutally by the police, resulted on Wednesday in the resignation of the country’s government. PM Boiko Borisov announced the decision in the morning, attributing it to his disapproval of way the protesters were handled the previous night. Bulgarians have been expressing their opposition towards the latest increases in the cost of electricity and power monopolies. They have also been accusing politicians of corruption and showing dissatisfaction with the low living standards. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the European morning that countries should not carry out active exchange rate policies. She also stated that the “euro between $1.30 and $1.40 is normal in the historical perspective of the euro”. Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy presented new fiscal reforms on Wednesday, and announced that steps will be taken in order to prevent and suppress corruption connected with financial activities of political parties. -FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22022013/

2013-02-22 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-22 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-02-22 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-22 15:30 GMT | United states. FOMC Member Powell Speech


2013-02-22 05:31 GMT | AUD/JPY capped below weekly opening price 96.35
2013-02-22 05:20 GMT | EUR/USD, bearish storm set to continue?
2013-02-22 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD extends gains above 1.0320
2013-02-22 04:16 GMT | GBP/USD spikes to key 1.5320 resistance

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32188 LOW 1.31828 BID 1.32144 ASK 1.32150 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 51:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD has gradually climbed during the Asian session, having made fresh high but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 1.3233 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 1.3270 (R2) and 1.3308 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged after its initial bearish setup and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3160 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3124 (S2) and 1.3086 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3233, 1.3270, 1.3308
Support Levels: 1.3160, 1.3124, 1.3086

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53199 LOW 1.52438 BID 1.52870 ASK 1.52885 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07 : 52:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.5323 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.5365 (R2) and 1.5406 (R3). Downwards scenario: The short oriented traders expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5210 (S1) to confirm downside evolvement. Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5166 (S2) and 1.5120 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5323, 1.5365, 1.5406
Support Levels: 1.5210, 1.5166, 1.5120

-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.414 LOW 92.919 BID 93.282 ASK 93.287 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 07 : 52:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 93.42 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 93.57 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Relatively stable market is looking for priority in direction. Any prolonged movement below the support at 93.10 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to next marks at 92.95 (S2) and 92.78 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 93.42, 93.57, 93.72
Support Levels: 93.10, 92.95, 92.78

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Best ECN Broker | Forex Trading System | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013

Italy at the crossroads ahead of weekend elections
On 24 and 25 February Italy heads to the polls to vote in the general election, called two months before of the end of the statutory five-year term. The outcome is rather uncertain as many voters remain undecided as to who to choose. Before the opinion polls blackout on 8 February, surveys showed that the center-left party had the most support.

The frontrunners in the election are the head of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party’s leader Silvio Berlusconi. Third in the opinion polls comes the comedian turned populist politician Beppe Grillo an his 5-Star movement (5SM). The current Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti leading the Civic Choice coalition party also takes part in the elections, but is not expected to claim victory, but rather be a “kingmaker”. The outcome of the election is crucial as the new government will have to make head against the fiscal crisis consuming the country and implement reforms in order to prop up the ailing economy. A failure to do so would have dire implications for Italy and consequently the entire Eurozone as providing a bailout for such a large economy might prove to be impossible. As chief economist at Maverick Intelligence Megan Green suggests in an article for Bloomberg: “The next government in Rome may be stable or reformist by Italian standards, but it will not be both.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-25-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan)
2013-02-25 13:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
2013-02-25 17:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2013-02-25 21:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

Forex News
2013-02-25 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD sinks beneath 1.5100
2013-02-25 05:22 GMT | Euro traders shift gaze to Rome
2013-02-25 05:02 GMT | USD/JPY recovers again above 94.00
2013-02-25 04:23 GMT | NZD/USD expected at 0.87 by year end – NAB



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.32137 | LOW: 1.31814 | BID: 1.32024 | ASK: 1.32031 | CHANGE: 0.14% | TIME: 08 : 02:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3220 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3244 (R2) and 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the 1.3179 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.3156 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.3130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3220, 1.3244, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3179, 1.3156, 1.3130

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51368 | LOW: 1.50734 | BID: 1.51297 | ASK: 1.51309 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08 : 02:50



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is pointing to a negative market sentiment by losing -0.25% today. Though clearance of our resistance at 1.5167 (R1) might trigger recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5214 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen below the local low at 1.5075 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 1.5030 (S2) and 1.4984 (S3) marks.

Resistance Levels: 1.5167, 1.5214, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5075, 1.5030, 1.4984

---------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.359 | LOW: 93.972 | BID: 94.175 | ASK: 94.182 | CHANGE: -0.84% | TIME: 08 : 02:52



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market maintains a positive medium-term tone and currently is limited to our next resistive barrier at 94.36 (R1). If it manages to break it we would suggest next intraday targets at 94.50 (R2) and 94.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 93.96 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 93.80 (S2) and 93.65 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.36, 94.50, 94.65
Support Levels: 93.96, 93.80, 93.65

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 27 2013

Europe concerned with Italian election outcome
The post election stalemate in Italy, where no political group secured a clear majority in parliament, is causing concerns among European officials and a stir in the markets. Italian FTSE MIB fell by 4.60% on Tuesday while the yield on the country’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to 4.79%. Throughout the day various European officials have been expressing their concerns with the outcome of the elections. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle stressed the need for a strong government in Italy, which would carry on with the reform plan initiated by Mario Monti. European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said that boosting growth and creating jobs should be the most important points on the new government’s agenda.

Spanish Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos said in the European morning that he hopes Italy would continue introducing measures to fight the crisis, while his French counterpart Pierre Moscovici expressed hope that Pier Luigi Bersani would form a government inclined to implement further reforms. Also BoE MPC members, speaking before the UK Treasury Committee, emphasized that a prolonged political instability in Italy might considerably harm the Eurozone economy.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-27-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-27 13:30 GMT | United States. US Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
2013-02-27 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-27 17:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech

Forex News
2013-02-27 05:39 GMT | Euro speaks Italian these days, capire?
2013-02-27 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD threatening 1.5100 support
2013-02-27 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY Q2 target at 97 – JPM
2013-02-27 02:58 GMT | Gold higher on Bernanke testimony



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.30738 | LOW: 1.30413 | BID: 1.30661 | ASK: 1.30670 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 01:04



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut on the 25-02-2013. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 1.3092 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 1.3134 (R2) and 1.3173 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension is limited now to the important resistance level at 1.3036 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next initial targets at 1.2997 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3134, 1.3173
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.2997, 1.2957

-------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51357 | LOW: 1.50804 | BID: 1.50831 | ASK: 1.50843 | CHANGE: -0.27% | TIME: 08 : 01:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Corrective action might take a place above the next resistance at 1.5139 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.5180 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.5220 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recently instrument tested negative side however it might face next hurdle on the important technical level -1.5072 (S1). Break here is required to open road for the downtrend resuming. Our intraday targets for today are 1.5032 (S2) and 1.4995 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5139, 1.5180, 1.5220
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5032, 1.4995

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.261 | LOW: 91.627 | BID: 91.731 | ASK: 91.737 | CHANGE: -0.26% | TIME: 08 : 01:07



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Price finally stabilized after the initial market decline and currently is looking for priority in direction. Break above the fractal level at 92.27 (R1) is required to generate recovery action and expose our intraday targets at 92.64 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 91.39 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 91.00 (S2) and 90.59 (S3) in case of positive retest here.

Resistance Levels: 92.27, 92.64, 93.03
Support Levels: 91.39, 91.00, 90.59

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Software | ECN Trade Account | Forex Course | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013

Moody’s: Euro zone debt markets vulnerable to further shocks
Moody’s rating agency continues to warn Euro area countries that debt markets in the region remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. Find below the main quotes from the official communique: “Market volatility in recent days proves that the euro area sovereign debt markets remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence because of the limited fundamental changes in euro area countries’ economic indicators, debt trajectories or institutional reforms since last July.”

“The growth outlook for peripheral countries is still weak, and progress in reversing debt trajectories remains slow and halting. Political and implementation risks remain significant, with little evidence of cohesion among policymakers and a rising risk of complacency setting in as market pressure for reforms subsides. And while the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction facility by the European Central Bank has successfully reversed the rise in sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains, for example with investors in Greece © and Cyprus (Caa3, negative) still exposed to heightened default risk.” “Overall, for most euro area countries, the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as the ‘event’ risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside, supporting Moody’s negative outlooks for most euro area sovereign ratings.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-28-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-28 08:55 GMT | Germany. DE Unemployment Change (Feb)
2013-02-28 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-28 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-02-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)

Forex News
2013-02-27 13:52 GMT | USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders
2013-02-27 13:50 GMT | EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data
2013-02-27 13:31 GMT | US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January
2013-02-27 12:38 GMT | GBP/USD easing from 1.5140 zone



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31615 | LOW: 1.31284 | BID: 1.31468 | ASK: 1.31476 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 43:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3163 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3189 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3214 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although we do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.3132 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3076 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3163, 1.3189, 1.3214
Support Levels: 1.3132, 1.3104, 1.3076

---------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51769 | LOW: 1.51589 | BID: 1.51683 | ASK: 1.51693 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08 : 43:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5177 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5219 (R2) and 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 1.5119 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 1.5080 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5039 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5177, 1.5219, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5119, 1.5080, 1.5039

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.668 | LOW: 92.157 | BID: 92.376 | ASK: 92.379 | CHANGE: 0.18% | TIME: 08 : 43:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 92.66 (R1). Next interim target holds at 92.97 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 93.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 92.15 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 91.85 (S2) and 91.54 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 92.66, 92.97, 93.27
Support Levels: 92.15, 91.85, 91.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013

It's official, the US sequestration kicks in

The sequestration, for those unfamiliar with the term, is defined by the US Federal Budget as "the practice of using mandatory spending cuts in the federal budget if the cost of running the government exceeds either an arbitrary amount or the the gross revenue it brings during the fiscal year." These automatic federal budget cuts are officially kicking in within as we write these lines, after a final bill presented by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to win enough support. What this means is that the US will now go through an across-the-board spending cuts in the face of annual budget deficits, which are thought to amount over $85 billion in the current fiscal year. "Assuming that every dollar cut in spending reduces GDP by a dollar, the sequester will shave US growth by around 0.5% this year" comments Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.

Marc adds: "The sequester itself is a bit of a farce in the sense that it was never intended to be enacted. It was purposely designed to be absurd to give the political class incentive to find an alternative." The analyst suspects that what is behind the 'sequester' is the fact that main political players did their calculations concluding is the best worst alternative. Obama crossed the wires later Thursday, saying that "tomorrow I will bring together leaders from both parties to discuss a path forward; as a nation, we can’t keep lurching from one manufactured crisis to another. Middle-class families can’t keep paying the price for dysfunction in Washington.” Kathy Lien, co-founder at BK Asset Management, notes: "We've been down this road before with the debt ceiling and survived." But as Kathy adds, here comes the kicker: "The Obama Administration has another 30 days to come up with a deal to cancel and avoid the cuts. The more important deadline is March 27th, when the government runs out of money and will be forced to shutdown if no additional measures are taken." Investors are holding out hope for a last minute deal, Kathy says.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01032013/


Forex Economic Calendar
2013-03-01 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Dec)
2013-03-01 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forex News
2013-03-01 05:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5150; slows down avrg vol
2013-03-01 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD continues sequestered by sellers
2013-03-01 03:50 GMT | Gold below $1590 as 'sequester' looms
2013-03-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD little moved around 1.0220


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30836 LOW 1.30532 BID 1.30775 ASK 1.30783 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 02:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price get momentum on the downside yesterday however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3094 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3121 (R2) and 1.3146 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near term outlook is negative for the EURUSD as the price setup is taken a form of a downside formation. Expected progress below the initial support level at 1.3051 (S1) might expose intraday targets at 1.3024 (S2) and then 1.2996 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3094, 1.3121, 1.3146
Support Levels: 1.3051, 1.3024, 1.2996

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51824 LOW 1.51513 BID 1.51811 ASK 1.51824 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 02:54



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power today. Next on tap is resistance level at 1.5198 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5227 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be limited to last resistance at 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, yesterday lows at 1.5148 (S1) offers an important technical level. Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and expose our lower targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5086 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5198, 1.5227, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5148, 1.5118, 1.5086

----------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.731 LOW 92.466 BID 92.536 ASK 92.541 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 02:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Ascending uptrend formation remains in power today. Next resistance is seen at 92.73 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets to be exposed at 92.97 (R2) and 93.20 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the supportive barrier at 92.45 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 92.23 (R2) and then 92.01 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.73, 92.97, 93.20
Support Levels: 92.45, 92.23, 92.01


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Exchange Market FX Brokers | Automated Forex Trading System | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 04 2013

BoJ Kuroda will do whatever it takes to end deflation

The confirmation hearing for Mr. Kuroda as the new chief of the BOJ is taking place in the parliament, and the first comments are crossing the wires. Among the standout headlines, he said that monetary policy will be deployed to conquer deflation, adding that BOJ has not bought enough assets to end deflation, also saying that the BOJ independence is secured by law. Lastly, there was some notorious comments on his assertiveness to implement policies, although with little effects to the Yen so far, as he also said - 'a la Draghi Japanese version' - that he will do whatever it takes to end deflation.

He also noted: "The BOJ must clearly send out the message, through communication with markets, that it will do whatever it can to beat deflation." On the different options to ease policy further, BoJ Kuroda said the most natural way is to increase JBG purchases, buying longer-dated JGBs, although additional market behaviour inspection on potential repercussions should first be examined. He continued saying that the BOJ must expand economic stimulus both through assets volume increases and the type of assets it buys. Also that he might consider a new era of open-ended asset buying soon. To sum up, his comments sound very much as a recipe for disappointment - expectations being set very high - unless the bank starts executing an aggressive balance sheet expansion through domestic long term bond purchases and other risky assets in the coming months. If next April 4 BoJ meeting sees no much changes in policies, there might be more risk of Yen appreciation.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04032013/


Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. Eurogroup meeting
2013-03-04 09:30 GMT United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Feb)
2013-03-04 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-04 13:00 GMT United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speech

Forex News :
2013-03-04 05:31 GMT GBP/USD below 1.5050 ahead of UK Construction PMI
2013-03-04 05:20 GMT EUR/USD wrestling around 1.30
2013-03-04 04:54 GMT AUD/USD breaks down to 8-month lows
2013-03-04 04:22 GMT Kiwi prints fresh 2013 lows

-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30309 LOW 1.30017 BID 1.30109 ASK 1.30117 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 18:34



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We expect next barrier on the upside at 1.3046 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3080 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3114 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level locates at 1.2965 (S1), breaching of this level would provide a signal of possible price regress towards to next target at 1.2933 (S2). If the price manages to overcome it, our final support for today could be found at 1.2900 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3046, 1.3080, 1.3114
Support Levels: 1.2965, 1.2933, 1.2900

----------------------
GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.50437 LOW 1.50222 BID 1.50325 ASK 1.50338 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 18:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bearish oriented however a break through next resistance level at 1.5049 (R1) would enable corrective action and might expose our next targets at 1.5087 (R2) and 1.5125 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades below the next resistance level, our medium-term bias forecast would be negative. Penetration below the support level at 1.4984 (S1) might open the way towards to lower targets at 1.4946 (S2) and 1.4909 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5049, 1.5087, 1.5125
Support Levels: 1.4984, 1.4946, 1.4909

-------------------------
USDJPY :

HIGH 93.723 LOW 93.284 BID 93.416 ASK 93.421 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 18:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Hourly chart consensus remains in play. Buyers might face next challenge at 93.72 (R1). Break here is required to establish bullish pressure, targeting 93.92 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 94.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited now to the next support level at 93.27 (S1), break here would put near-term bulls on hold. Marks at 93.07 (S2) and 92.86 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.

Resistance Levels: 93.72, 93.92, 94.12
Support Levels: 93.27, 93.07, 92.86

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Blog | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Currency Converter | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 05 2013

Cyprus rescue deal nears

Cyprus is well on track to be bailed out by the Euro-zone, after the bloc's finance ministers made a determined pledge this Monday to extend the much-needed final assistance to the cash-strapped country. The decision should be made official by the end of March, with details on how it will be rescued still unknown. The Eurogroup welcomed the new Cypriot Finance Minister, Michalis Sarris, and the information he provided on the situation in Cyprus following the presidential elections and on the policy intentions of the new government. The first exchanges with the new Cypriot government have been useful. With the new government now in place in Cyprus, the Eurogroup is confident that a swift conclusion of the negotiations towards a Memorandum of Understanding can be reached.

The Eurogroup welcomes the commitment of President Anastasiades, reiterated by Minister Sarris, to closely cooperate with Cyprus's European partners towards the earliest possible completion of the loan agreement. For its part, the Eurogroup reiterates its readiness to assist Cyprus in its adjustment effort, including of its banking sector, in order to bring the economy to a sustainable growth path with sound public finances and to safeguard financial stability. The Eurogroup has been informed that the preparatory work for concluding a Memorandum of Understanding is advanced and that the new government has agreed on an independent evaluation of the implementation of the anti-money laundering framework in Cypriot financial institutions. The Eurogroup called on the international institutions and Cyprus to accelerate their work on the building blocks of a programme, and agreed to target political endorsement of the programme around the second half of March. The Eurogroup will reconvene again in the near term in view of the progress of the discussions between the Cypriot authorities and the international institutions.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. EcoFin Meeting
2013-03-05 09:28 GMT United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-03-05 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-03-05 15:00 GMT United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-05 05:54 GMT USD/JPY breaks below 93.00
2013-03-05 05:40 GMT GBP/USD again quiet in Asia-Pacific above 1.51
2013-03-05 04:35 GMT EUR/USD at peace with 1.30 vicinity
2013-03-05 03:41 GMT AUD/USD higher post-RBA on hold


-------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30462 LOW 1.3018 BID 1.30409 ASK 1.30415 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 06:44



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.3052 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3086 (R2) and last one at 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.3012 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for a stronger expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.2977 (S2) and 1.2941 (R3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3052, 1.3086, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3012, 1.2977, 1.2941

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51398 LOW 1.51041 BID 1.51217 ASK 1.51230 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 06:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5140 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 1.5165 (R2) and 1.5190 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.5099 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5070 (S2) and 1.5041 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5140, 1.5165, 1.5190
Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5070, 1.5041


USDJPY :
HIGH 93.537 LOW 92.913 BID 93.066 ASK 93.072 CHANGE -0.43% TIME 08 : 06:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 93.28 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 93.54 (R2) and then target at 93.80 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: The low of the day offers key supportive barrier at 92.89 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum for the downside expansion later on today. Our initial support levels locates today at 92.63 (S2) and 92.37 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 93.28, 93.54, 93.80
Support Levels: 92.89, 92.63, 92.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013

Keep an eye on the oil market after Chavez's death

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the breaking news of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez death, which has no direct impact on the currency market, traders should, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Oil market, as it may produce some volatility. Venezuelan Vice President Mr. Maduro is expected to win the elections and become Chavez's successor. There was some incendiary comments from Maduro after the announcement of Chavez's death, which Reuters reports: ”We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.

"This report should be bullish for oil" says Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive. At the time of writing, US Oil futures are quoted at 90.83 after sharp fall off a double top from early February in the 98.00 vicinity. Venezuela enjoys the world's largest oil reserves and the oil-related bonds being traded are of enormous size, suggesting that the oil community may go through a phase of hyper-sensitivity on any indications of political unrest in the country. As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes: "Although the news has little to do right now with the forex market, Venezuela is an oil producer, and therefore, we may see some wild action in oil and that could affect forex market." She tips to keep an eye on this and its correlation with oil, "particularly at the European and the US opening" she said.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-06 09:45 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-03-06 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Mar 6)
2013-03-06 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Beige Book

Forex News :
2013-03-06 01:18 GMT | USD/JPY pressing against 93.00
2013-03-06 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.0280 after Aus GDP
2013-03-06 00:19 GMT | EUR/JPY still capped below 122.00
2013-03-05 22:50 GMT | AUD/JPY pushing against 6-day highs ahead of Aus GDP


----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30704 LOW 1.30421 BID 1.30683 ASK 1.30688 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:06:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today at 1.3070 (R1) is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. Break here is required to validate next upcoming targets at 1.3090 (R2) and 1.3113 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3045 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3022 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51543 LOW 1.51236 BID 1.51441 ASK 1.51451 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:52



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is slightly improved during the Asian session however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.5154 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.5175 (R2) and then further gains would be limited to resistance at 1.5197 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.5129 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.5108 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support and 1.5087 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5154, 1.5175, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5129, 1.5108, 1.5087


USDJPY :
HIGH 93.38 LOW 92.995 BID 93.186 ASK 93.192 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 06:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized below the next resistance level at 93.29 (R1). Penetration above it might encourage orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 93.51 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 92.99 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 92.78 (S2) and 92.56 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.29, 93.51, 93.72
Support Levels: 92.99, 92.78, 92.56

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013

ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE

Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE. Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."

Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes. The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-07 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-07 05:51 GMT | GBP/JPY still in uptrend - JPMorgan
2013-03-07 05:17 GMT | BoJ holds steady; Cable prints fresh lows
2013-03-07 04:55 GMT | NZDUSD bearish potential intact - Saxo Bank
2013-03-07 03:44 GMT | USD/JPY slightly to the downside as no surprise from BoJ

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29963 LOW 1.29686 BID 1.29911 ASK 1.29916 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07:57:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: An evidence of uptrend formation might be provided if the price manages to surpass key resistive structure at 1.3009 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would put in focus our higher targets at 1.3038 (R2) and 1.0388 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument is moving with a ranging momentum on a slightly shorter timeframe and might retest our next support level at 1.2965 (S1). Market decline below it might lead to the further easing towards to next targets at 1.2938 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50175 LOW 1.49669 BID 1.50019 ASK 1.50031 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 07:57:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5043 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5075 (R2) and further uptrend formation could be exhausted at 1.5107 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Technical indicators are bearish and if the price manages to break our next support level at 1.4968 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5043, 1.5075, 1.5107
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.115 LOW 93.792 BID 93.926 ASK 93.932 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 07:57:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Consolidation pattern formation likely comes to the end and appreciation above the resistance at 94.13 (R1) might start of a new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 94.42 (R2) and 94.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low formed today is pointing to a short-term key support at 93.77 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 93.47 (S2) and 93.19 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 94.13, 94.42, 94.70
Support Levels: 93.77, 93.47, 93.19

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013

Fed's stress test: banks better prepared for downturn

Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.

The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that "in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month" and that "leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs." She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: "We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K." Should the reading prove better than expected "it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market," as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that "the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth." US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08032013/


Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20


-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative

Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.

Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00

--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 12 2013

Troika inclined towards extending Portugal’s rescue loan maturity

Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Vestibulum tortor quam, feugiat vitae, ultricies eget, tempor sit amet, ante. Donec eu libero sit amet quam egestas semper. Aenean ultricies mi vitae est. Mauris placerat eleifend leo. Quisque sit amet est et sapien ullamcorper pharetra. Vestibulum erat wisi, condimentum sed, commodo vitae, ornare sit amet, wisi. Aenean fermentum, elit eget tincidunt condimentum, eros ipsum rutrum orci, sagittis tempus lacus enim ac dui. Donec non enim in turpis pulvinar facilisis. Ut felis. Praesent dapibus, neque id cursus faucibus,

For the London session ahead UK Manufacturing production for January on monthly basis at 09:30 GMT will be key risk event of the day, along with UK Trade balance and Industrial production at same hour. The British Manufacturing Production indicator measures the changes in output produced by manufacturers and in the turning of inventory. Manufacturing is a critical sector of the economy, and strong readings are an indication of economic growth. After a string of weak releases, Manufacturing Production shot up 1.6% in February, well above the market estimate of 0.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a much weaker figure for March, with an estimate of a paltry gain of just 0.1%. Will the indicator surprise the market with another strong reading?
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-12 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-12 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Feb)
2013-03-12 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-12 05:52 GMT | EUR/USD firmer above 1.30
2013-03-12 05:19 GMT | USD/JPY makes new highs; BoJ may call emergency meeting
2013-03-12 04:05 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.49 ahead of key UK data
2013-03-12 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD 1.0340/75 key zone to move higher - JPM


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30464 LOW 1.30229 BID 1.30250 ASK 1.30256 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.3035 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.3052 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3) Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.0318 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.0306 (S2) and then 1.0295 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3035, 1.3052, 1.3070
Support Levels: 1.0318, 1.0306, 1.0295


GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49188 LOW 1.48857 BID 1.48955 ASK 1.48967 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.4935 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.4969 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.5001 (R3) Downwards scenario: Market stabilized after the previous day’s losses and looks ready for a new step of downtrend extension. Key support level lies at 1.4866 (S1), clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.4834 (S2) and 1.4803 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4935, 1.4969, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4866, 1.4834, 1.4803

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.708 LOW 96.268 BID 96.442 ASK 96.445 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08:10:40



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation provided last week we expect some consolidation development ahead, though medium-term bias remains bullish. Marks at 96.68 (R1), 97.07 (R2) and last one at 97.49 (R3) acts as resistive measures on the upside. Downwards scenario: A short-term technical structure might turn into negative side in case of price regress below the support level at 96.01 (S1). Possible correction below this level would then be targeting initial support at 95.60 (S2) en route towards to final target at 95.20 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.68, 97.07, 97.49
Support Levels: 96.01, 95.60, 95.20

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 13 2013

Rehn defends Eurozone’s austerity policy

European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn spoke against the critics of budget cutting measures recommended by the European Union in an interview published today in a Finnish newspaper. Rehn responded to voices of such economists as Paul Krugman who suggest that Brussels should stop reducing spending and encourage the most indebted countries to stimulate their economies, instead of making them believe that this is a way to regain market confidence. The disagreement sprang up after the European Commission published various projections which pointed to a deeper and more prolonged recession in the countries in the south of Europe, which are implementing harsh austerity measures.

Olli Rehn believes that the experts who agree with Krugman distorted the results of a study carried out by the IMF in 2012 regarding the consequences of austerity, which said that the impact of spending cuts on growth could be greater than expected. According to the commissioner, “It is essential that the IMF paper does not give rise to the conclusion that economic adjustment would not be desirable” and that is why he believes that the critics are putting forward their own interpretation in order to attack the Eurozone policy. Rehn assured that he expects “people who are more intelligent” to present alternative and realistic propositions in order to improve the flow of credit in Europe, as until now this did not happen yet.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-13 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-13 17:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-03-13 20:00 GMT | New Zeland. Monetary Policy Statement

Forex News :
2013-03-13 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD eyes US retail sales
2013-03-13 04:36 GMT | USD/JPY mixed on BoJ nominees, holds above 95.60
2013-03-13 03:33 GMT | GBP/USD prints fresh weekly highs, knocks 1.4950
2013-03-13 01:16 GMT | USD/CAD momentum fading - TDS

--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30438 LOW 1.30227 BID 1.30390 ASK 1.30398 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 07:58:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD lost momentum recently and trapped to the range mode trading. On the upside next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.3053 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3022 (S1). A fall below it might prolong the weakness towards to next target at 1.3006 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 1.2988 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3053, 1.3069, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.3022, 1.3006, 1.2988

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49524 LOW 1.48927 BID 1.49360 ASK 1.49370 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07:58:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Retail trader’s sentiment on the bullish side today. Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the important resistive bastion at 1.4952 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.4976 (R2) and 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our support level is placed on the important fractal level- 1.4916 (S1). Below here is seen potential of price acceleration towards to our initial targets at 1.4890 (S2) and then final one at 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4952, 1.4976, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

-------------------------
USDJPY :

HIGH 96.101 LOW 95.589 BID 95.711 ASK 95.718 CHANGE -0.38% TIME 07:58:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY corrected from the initial upside development yesterday and currently looking for priority in direction for today. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 96.10 (R1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 96.40 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our next support level at 95.59 (S1) is required to enable further retracement phase and expose our target at 95.31 (S2). Further market decline looks limited to final support level at 95.03 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.10, 96.40, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.59, 95.31, 95.03

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 14 2013

Eurogroup talks on Cyprus at Friday meeting might be unofficial

Eurozone Finance Ministers are expected to continue their negotiations on the rescue loan for Cyprus during the meeting scheduled for Friday, although some sources claim that these negotiations will be led on the sidelines of the main talks. Cyprus and the Troika are trying to bring down the amount of the aid to 10 billion euros from the previously estimated 17 billion euros. According to Peter Jackson from FxBriefs.com “Cyprus may be forced to raise money from levies on deposits, other taxes such as corporate tax (which could be raised to 12.5% from 10%), as well as the possibility of a much opposed financial transaction tax.”

Representatives of the international lenders will meet with president Nicos Anastasiades for preparatory talks before the Friday summit on Thursday evening in Nicosia. It was given to understand that there was a possibility of striking the bailout deal already on Friday. Nevertheless, a German government official said in the European afternoon that the talks on the rescue program for Cyprus would be informal, thus no final decision could be made this week. He also added that Germany is waiting for the Troika’s evaluation of Cyprus before making any decisions. The EU Finance Ministers’ meeting is due to start on Friday at 16:00 GMT, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem informed on his Twitter account.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-14 08:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-14 12:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-14 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-14 06:08 GMT | EUR/USD, calls for lower lows persist
2013-03-14 05:23 GMT | Aussie skyrockets after 'beyond belief' Aus jobs
2013-03-14 03:50 GMT | USD/JPY call spreads attractive - Standard Chartered
2013-03-14 01:37 GMT | EUR/JPY puts pressure on 123.80/124.15 proven demand

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29814 LOW 1.29431 BID 1.29552 ASK 1.29561 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today however clearance of next resistive structure at 1.2982 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 1.2997 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3013 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 1.2942 (S1). Clearance of this level would suggest further downtrend development with possible targets at 1.2927 (S2) and 1.2911 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2982, 1.2997, 1.3013
Support Levels: 1.2942, 1.2927, 1.2911

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49564 LOW 1.49124 BID 1.49401 ASK 1.49411 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.4957 (R1), break here would open road towards to our next target at 1.4979 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive structure at 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.4916 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.4890 (S2) and potentially to 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4957, 1.4979, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.146 LOW 95.684 BID 95.953 ASK 95.959 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 49:09



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downwar penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 96.17 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 96.43 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 95.66 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 95.43 (S2) and 95.18 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.17, 96.43, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.66, 95.43, 95.18

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Software | Forex Currency Trading blog | FXCC )

[plumgallmann]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - 12/10/2011. Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):general trend is to the upside. Break below (1.35554) may

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013

Van Rompuy issues day-1 EU summit statement

After concluding the first evening of talks among Euro zone leaders, President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy issued a first statement proving details over how best to guide European economic policies. Van Rompuy said: "We reconfirmed our overall economic strategy. It has four strands: First. Restoring financial stability, and maintaining it: this is vital for confidence of consumers and investors, a key condition for internal demand and growth; Second. Ensuring sound public finances, structurally sound; Third. Urgently fighting unemployment – especially for youth, for whom the situation is dramatic in some countries. Four. And reforming for long-term growth and competitiveness."

The statement adds: "We all agree we need to keep turning our commitments into actions and results. Implementation continues to be key. The good progress towards structurally balanced budgets must continue. For each individual country, it's about making choices that make sense in the long run: Pursuing well-designed structural reforms; Being ruthless on tax evasion. Shifting taxation away from labour; Expenditure cuts where it makes us fitter, not sacrificing vital areas like innovation or education; And launching fast-acting and targeted measures to boost growth and employment, in particular for the youth." Starting in June, Van Rompuy made the pledge to start looking not only at national reform and jobs plans, "but also at the results of the Growth Compact concluded last year" he said, adding that "as a matter of fact, the President of the European Commission made a first report on the results of the Growth Compact already this evening."
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting
2013-03-15 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)

Forex News :
2013-03-15 06:01 GMT | Euro buyers insist to defend $1.30; volatility to be on the rise
2013-03-15 04:48 GMT | USD/JPY unlikely to go lower on Japanese foreign investment - Nomura
2013-03-15 04:37 GMT | AUD/NZD higher, stalls below 1.2700/200 day SMA
2013-03-15 03:55 GMT | GBP could decline further – HSBC

-------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.30267 LOW 1.29992 BID 1.30192 ASK 1.30198 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 12:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup is aiming to resume initial upwards formation. Next resistive bastion lies at 1.3031 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to our initial targets at 1.3044 (R2) and 1.3057 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although, consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market manages break our next support at 1.2997 (S1) we would suggest next supportive measures at 1.2985 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3031, 1.3044, 1.3057
Support Levels: 1.2997, 1.2985, 1.2975

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51039 LOW 1.50686 BID 1.50857 ASK 1.50867 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 12:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market remains under the uptrend formation and a break above the resistance level at 1.5119 (R1) might resume bullish pressure. In such scenario, we would suggest next target at 1.5138 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive mean at 1.5068 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.5047 (S2) and even 1.5027 (R3) mark could be exposed if the pair accelerates on the downside.

Resistance Levels: 1.5119, 1.5138, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5068, 1.5047, 1.5027

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.274 LOW 95.882 BID 96.089 ASK 96.093 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 12:29



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues moving sideways however we see possibility to overcome our next resistive barrier at 96.26 (R1). Progress above it would suggest next intraday targets at 96.48 (R2) and 96.70 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 95.88 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 95.67 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 95.42 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.26, 96.48, 96.70
Support Levels: 95.88, 95.67, 95.42

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | ECN Forex Software | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013

Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean

Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control. But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.

Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-18 06:45 GMT | Switzerland. SECO Economic Forecasts
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-18 12:30 GMT | Canada. Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan)
2013-03-18 23:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

Forex News :
2013-03-18 05:52 GMT | GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
2013-03-18 05:27 GMT | Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
2013-03-18 03:25 GMT | EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
2013-03-18 02:43 GMT | EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik

-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29315 LOW 1.28818 BID 1.29038 ASK 1.29043 CHANGE -1.3% TIME 08:57:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3). Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51305 LOW 1.50717 BID 1.51041 ASK 1.51052 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:57:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.987 LOW 94.311 BID 94.464 ASK 94.467 CHANGE -0.83% TIME 08:57:40



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013

Will Cyprus Bailout Set Tone for Trading this Week?

The sharp sell-off in currencies and European equities overnight indicate that investors are shocked by Cyprus' bailout news as they should be since this would be the first time in Eurozone history that depositors have taken a loss. The EUR/USD may have rebounded off its lows on speculation about a modified deal that is less aggressive but regardless of how much depositors above or below 100,000 euros are taxed, the mere possibility that they will be taxed at all undermines the credibility of the entire banking system. Optimists argue that this situation is unique to Cyprus but we don't know how reassuring a watered down deal will be as this could set a precedent for the entire region. We won't even go into how unfair it is that senior bondholders are being saved at the expense of moms and pops and that depositors with money under their mattresses are safer than depositors in the bank. What we do know is that the Cyprus bailout has set the tone for trading in an extremely data and event risk heavy week by reawakening the fear of contagion. The vote in parliament on the bailout deal has been postponed until Tuesday and this means that this risk off tone will remain prevalent for the immediate future.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-03-19 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)
2013-03-19 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-19 05:30 GMT | GBP/USD going nowhere around 1.5100
2013-03-19 05:23 GMT | Euro buying interest fades ahead of 1.30
2013-03-19 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD reverses on Rio Tinto's comments
2013-03-19 02:31 GMT | USD/JPY breaks above 95.50

---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29694 LOW 1.29339 BID 1.29358 ASK 1.29367 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 02:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Currently price is stabilized however on a slightly longer term market sentiment remains negative. Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.2969 (R1) might prolong corrective action towards to next targets at 1.2993 (R2) and 1.3016 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if EURUSD depreciates below the next support level at 1.2934 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 1.2912 (S2) and then aim at 1.2890 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2969, 1.2993, 1.3016
Support Levels: 1.2934, 1.2912, 1.2890

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51128 LOW 1.5084 BID 1.50923 ASK 1.50937 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 02:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: So far Instrument traded in consolidative phase and being unable to made significant price deviation from its average price. Our resistive barrier at 1.5115 (R1) limits upside expansion. Break here is required to establish upwards formation targeting 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure could find momentum below the support at 1.5082 (S1). Possible downtrend expansion would open road towards to next target at 1.5061 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5040 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.746 LOW 95.123 BID 95.430 ASK 95.437 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 02:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument has bounced back and currently trades within the bullish pattern. If It manages to break above the next resistance level at 95.75 (R1), we expect to see appreciation towards to next targets at 95.94 (R2) and 96.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price depreciation is seen below the support at 95.38 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next target at 95.19 (S2) and potentially could even expose our final target at 94.99 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 95.75, 95.94, 96.13
Support Levels: 95.38, 95.19, 94.99

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platforms | Forex Practice Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013

Cypriot levy rejected, European leaders weigh in

Cyprus’s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, rendering a blow to European plans of coercing depositors to shoulder part of the country’s rescue in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Cypriot legislators in Nicosia voted 36 against to none in favor of the proposal in a show of hands today along with 19 abstentions – hammered out by euro-area finance leaders over the weekend, the deal had sought to raise €5.8B by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for €10.0B in international aid. Stocks dropped and the euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar at the prospect of impasse in Cyprus. European officials including Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem had said that Cyprus must contribute to its own bailout, while stressing that the Cypriot situation is unique. German coalition lawmakers said that Cyprus can expect no aid without meeting the terms.

“Cyprus has rebuffed the outstretched hand” of its partners, Hans Michelbach, a German lawmaker from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc and the ranking member on parliament’s finance committee, noted in a statement. The vote is “an act of collective unreason” and “the people of Cyprus must now pay a high price.”The ECB said it “takes note of the decision of the Cypriot Parliament and is in contact with its Troika partners” from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, according to a statement. “The ECB reaffirms its commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the existing rules.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-03-20 18:00 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-20 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)

Forex News :
2013-03-20 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.5100 ahead of a very very busy day
2013-03-20 04:40 GMT | AUD/USD back to session highs, still sideways
2013-03-20 02:39 GMT | Euro area faces new challenge on Cyprus drama - Nomura
2013-03-20 01:53 GMT | USD/JPY kept below 95.00, sellers dominant s/t

--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2879 LOW 1.28566 BID 1.28755 ASK 1.28762 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 07:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD discounted value determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.2916 (R1). Only clearance here would allow further gains, targeting 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2959 (R3). Downwards scenario: Descending channel formation on the hourly chart frame is limited now to the session low - 1.2856 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2835 (S2) and 1.2813 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2916, 1.2937, 1.2959
Support Levels: 1.2856, 1.2835, 1.2813

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51065 LOW 1.50798 BID 1.50891 ASK 1.50902 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 07:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY Neutral
TREND CONDITION Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is consolidating on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.5128 (R2) and 1.5149 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5107 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.5072 (S1). Possible price regress could exposed our initial targets at 1.5053 (S2) and 1.5033 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5107, 1.5128, 1.5149
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5053, 1.5033

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.202 LOW 94.829 BID 95.035 ASK 95.040 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 07:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut yesterday though our medium-term outlook is positive. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 95.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 95.39 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is put to the immediate support level at 94.99 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 94.83 (S2) and 94.67 (S3

Resistance Levels: 95.22, 95.39, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.99, 94.83, 94.67

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading Accounts | ECN Broker List | Currency Converter | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013


Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative


Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-',
citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections
and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative
outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The
inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25
February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in
the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty
and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures
constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep
recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one
of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.


Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the
United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the
economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar
continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the
stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the
prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an
interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive
correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence
which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such
behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/


Forex Economic Calendar :

2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)

2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)

2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Forex News :

2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...

2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900

2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness

2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00



EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis


Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD
though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance
level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035
(R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces
is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would
suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its
momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at
1.2941 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054

Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941


---------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low


Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to
provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be
exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario.
Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support
level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this
mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support
at 1.4834 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022

Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834


---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High


Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30
(R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome
it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3)
in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained
relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49
(S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our
intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on
today in such case.


Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07

Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013


Dimitriadis presents a resolution process to the Cypriot Parliament


The Cypriot Central Bank governor Panicós Dimitriadis has announced a
bank restructuring plan that will allow banks to reopen on Tuesday.
Dimitriadis said on Thursday that the bill would protect bank deposits
up to €100K according to sources. Earlier, the Popular bank allowed
costumers to withdrawal cash but limited by individual to 260 euros a
day. Bloomberg has published that the bill has the approval of the
Troika, however, the Eurogroup is weighing the close of the Cyprus
Popular bank and the bank of Cyprus.


With European data disappointing and U.S. economic data surprising to
the upside investors have returned to selling euros. Not only has tail
risk in the Eurozone returned with the ECB threatening to pull support
from Cyprus if an agreement is not reached by Monday but the outlook for
growth has taken a turn for the worse, compounding the euro's problems.
Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted at a
faster pace in the month of March with the Eurozone PMI Composite index
dropping to 46.5 from 47.9. While this is not the lowest reading that we
have seen in the past 6 months, the cracks in Germany are reappearing.
The Eurozone's largest economy is no longer able to provide umbrella
support for the rest of the region and is now weakening alongside
France, Italy and Spain. Tomorrow's German IFO report will most likely
tell the same story of weakness in the Eurozone economy. The
deteriorating growth outlook and risks posed by Cyprus and Italy (lets
not forget about the unresolved elections) makes the euro less
attractive than the dollar and should continue to add pressure on the
currency.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22032013/


Forex Economic Calendar :

2013-03-22 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Cyprus Parliament Vote on Banking Restructuring, Wealth Fund Bill

2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Mar)

2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Expectations (Mar)

2013-03-22 14:00 GMT | Belgium. Leading Indicator (Mar)


Forex News :

2013-03-22 05:59 GMT | EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid

2013-03-22 05:51 GMT | USD/JPY breaks down to yesterday's 94.50 lows

2013-03-22 05:43 GMT | Cyprus mission in Russia fails

2013-03-22 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD looking at 1.5200 asks



EURUSD :

HIGH 1.29244 LOW 1.28882 BID 1.28994 ASK 1.28999 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 41:37




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis


Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement
yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next
resistance level at 1.2925 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.2942 (R2)
en route toward to our major aim at 1.2960 (R3). Downwards scenario:
Further devaluation is limited to the supportive barrier at 1.2879 (S1).
Only loss here would be considered as new step of downtrend expansion,
targeting 1.2861 (S2) and 1.2844 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 1.2925, 1.2942, 1.2960

Support Levels: 1.2879, 1.2861, 1.2844


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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.51945 LOW 1.5165 BID 1.51878 ASK 1.51888 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 41:38




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium


Upwards scenario: A bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to
climb above the key resistance level at 1.5208 (R1). Next targets on
the way could be exposed at 1.5234 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards
scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below
the support level at 1.5156 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative
side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5127 (S2) and
1.5100 (S3).


Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5260

Support Levels: 1.5156, 1.5127, 1.5100


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USDJPY :

HIGH 95.132 LOW 94.545 BID 94.683 ASK 94.688 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 41:39




OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium


Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly
timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the 95.14 (R1)
resistance level. Violation here would suggest next intraday targets at
95.34 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening
is seen below the key support at 94.41 (S1). Loss here is required to
allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 94.22 (S3) en
route towards to final target for today at 94.02 (S3)


Resistance Levels: 95.14, 95.34, 95.55

Support Levels: 94.41, 94.22, 94.02


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Software | FXCC )