Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC

alayoua · June 16, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 17 2013

Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke

The month of June has proven to be an extremely volatile period in the forex market as the U.S. dollar fell aggressively against many major currencies. Unfortunately we can't expect the markets to calm anytime soon with a heavy dose of economic data expected from countries around the world. The U.K. and Australia will release monetary policy minutes, the Swiss National Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting and of course - we also have the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on the calendar. In addition to these event risks, Eurozone PMIs, New Zealand GDP, UK retail sales, US manufacturing data and Canadian retail sales are also scheduled for release. Yet there's no question that of all these events, the most important will be the Fed meeting. Much of the volatility in the financial markets has been caused by the uncertainty of Fed policy. There's been a lot of talk about tapering asset purchases, which has caused stocks to weaken but at the same time, central bank officials and noted Fed watchers have stressed that a reduction in Quantitative Easing does not equate to tightening. They are absolutely right and we think that the rest of the market is beginning to realize this connection as well but based on the reaction to Jon Hilsenrath's article this week, there are still a subset who need convincing.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/17062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. G8 Meeting
2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Labour cost (Q1)
2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Apr)
2013-06-17 12:30 GMT | USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-17 04:55 GMT | EUR/AUD testing 1.3850 support on Euro weakness
2013-06-17 04:02 GMT | EUR/USD dips to fresh session lows ahead of G-8
2013-06-17 02:23 GMT | USD/JPY extends gains above 94.50
2013-06-17 00:49 GMT | Aussie pops above 0.96 USD

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33573 LOW 1.33184 BID 1.33187 ASK 1.33191 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 14:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Local high at 1.3358 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3399 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 1.3294 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3272 (S2) and 1.3250 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3358, 1.3379, 1.3399
Support Levels: 1.3294, 1.3272, 1.3250

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57319 LOW 1.56927 BID 1.56935 ASK 1.56944 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 14:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5737 (R1) on the upside. Surpassing of this level may initiate bullish pressure towards to next visible targets at 1.5768 (R2) and 1.5799 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5671 (S1). Loss here would shift our intraday outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5639 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5737, 1.5768, 1.5799
Support Levels: 1.5671, 1.5639, 1.5606

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.837 LOW 94.098 BID 94.722 ASK 94.726 CHANGE 0.67% TIME 08 : 14:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 95.05 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 95.53 (R2) and then final aim would be 96.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures could be found at 94.24 (S1). Clearance here would suggest possible downtrend development towards to initial targets, located at 93.75 (S2) and 93.27 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.05, 95.53, 96.04
Support Levels: 94.24, 93.75, 93.27

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

alayoua · June 17, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 18 2013

Dollar Strengthens, Stocks Soar as Traders Position for FOMC

Yesterday we saw how much of a difference a few hours can make with the dollar recovering earlier losses to end the North American session higher against most of the major currencies. With only one day to go before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, the big move in equities and the reversal in currencies suggests that traders are beginning to position for FOMC. Yet taking a look at how the various markets are trading, there seems to be more confusion than clarity on what the central bank will say or do. The rise in the dollar and the increase in U.S. Treasury yields imply that currency and equity traders believe that the main takeaway from this week's meeting will be that the central bank is gearing up to taper. However the rally in U.S. equities suggest that stock traders believe that the Fed will make a point to distinguish tapering from tightening and reassure investors that cheap and easy money will remain available for a very long period of time. If Bernanke is successful in convincing the market that they will take a very gradualist approach to tapering, the U.S. dollar could give up its gains. However if Bernanke emphasizes the central bank's plans for tapering over its difference with tightening, the dollar could extend its rise.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-06-18 06:00 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-06-18 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)
2013-06-18 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-18 05:03 GMT | GBP/USD capped at 1.57 ahead of UK CPI
2013-06-18 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD braces for volatile week
2013-06-18 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY hovering above 90.00
2013-06-18 02:58 GMT | GBP/JPY advances remain capped below 149.50

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33676 LOW 1.33466 BID 1.33526 ASK 1.33527 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 36:46

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.3382 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.3402 (R2) and 1.3422 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures could be found at 1.3326 (S1). Clearance here would suggest possible downtrend development towards to initial targets at 1.3307 (S2) and 1.3286 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3382, 1.3402, 1.3422
Support Levels: 1.3326, 1.3307, 1.3286

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57227 LOW 1.56943 BID 1.56961 ASK 1.56970 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 36:47

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Clearance of our next resistive structure at 1.5739 (R1) would open way towards to our initial target at 1.5766 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.5796 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.5679 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.5652 (S2) and 1.5624 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5739, 1.5766, 1.5796
Support Levels: 1.5679, 1.5652, 1.5624

-------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.955 LOW 94.436 BID 94.797 ASK 94.799 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 36:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 95.23 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 95.66 (R2) and 96.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.26 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 93.82 (S2) and 93.37 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 95.23, 95.66, 96.11
Support Levels: 94.26, 93.82, 93.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

alayoua · June 19, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 19 2013

EUR - Lifted by Stronger Investor Confidence

The euro traded higher against all of the major currencies today thanks to the improvement in Eurozone and German investor sentiment. The Eurozone ZEW survey rose to 30.6 from 27.6 and while investors grew less optimistic about current conditions in Germany, their confidence in future conditions improved with the expectations component of the German ZEW rising to 38.5 from 36.4. With the European Central Bank taking additional steps to stimulate the economy, this data indicates that investors are looking for a stronger recovery. In a farewell conference for Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer today, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi talked about ECB monetary policy. He said the central bank would consider non-standard measures including the possibility of negative deposit rates. Draghi said, "We will look with an open mind at these measures that are especially effective in our institutional setup and that fall within our mandate." Yet he warned that these non-standard measures could also lead to unintentional consequences. Parts of the Eurozone have been unresponsive to monetary policy and Draghi has set to regain its steering capacity. He pointed out that the introduction of non-standard policy measures along with standard measures helped prevent the materialization of deflation risk.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-19 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-06-19 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-06-19 18:30 GMT | USA. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2013-06-19 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-19 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD technical set up favors further upside ahead of FOMC
2013-06-19 03:37 GMT | GBP/JPY trapped inside the 149.50/148.50 range
2013-06-19 03:36 GMT | Bernanke not likely to backtrack on previous tapering comments - NAB
2013-06-19 03:03 GMT | EUR/AUD edging higher towards 1.4200

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34023 LOW 1.33847 BID 1.33906 ASK 1.33911 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 30:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3402 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3424 (R2) and 1.3445 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, the 1.3381 (S1) mark is a key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3360 (S2) and 1.3339 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3402, 1.3424, 1.3445
Support Levels: 1.3381, 1.3360, 1.3339

-----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.56443 LOW 1.56177 BID 1.56325 ASK 1.56331 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 30:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the downside suggests a possible recovery action. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.5657 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.5677 (R2) and 1.5697(R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect further market decline below the support level at 1.5616 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.5597 (S2) and 1.5578 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5657, 1.5677, 1.5697
Support Levels: 1.5616, 1.5597, 1.5578

-----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.664 LOW 95.177 BID 95.336 ASK 95.339 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 30:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 95.66 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 95.96 (R2) and 96.26 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fractals level at 95.05 (S1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 94.75 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.66, 95.96, 96.26
Support Levels: 95.05, 94.75, 94.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

alayoua · June 20, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 20 2013

Bernanke: The Fed is ready to start tapering

Following the Fed decision to hold rates and the optimistic FOMC economic projections, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed are ready to start tapering QE. Bernanke began by highlighting the optimistic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014, making reference to the hotly anticipated exit strategy, commenting, on â€œsetting fed funds target over medium term and continuing purchases of MBSâ€. Further, he added that an improvement in the unemployment rate to 6.5% should not be considered to be a trigger for an immediate rate hike. He added that he is personally expecting this to occur during 2015.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-20 07:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-06-20 08:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales
2013-06-20 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims
2013-06-20 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-20 04:42 GMT | EUR/USD unable to hold a bid after FOMC release deemed hawkish
2013-06-20 04:21 GMT | USD/JPY breaches the 97.00 handle
2013-06-20 03:45 GMT | China's overnight repo surges to 25%
2013-06-20 03:28 GMT | NZD/JPY continues to consolidate around 76.00

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3302 LOW 1.32491 BID 1.32493 ASK 1.32496 CHANGE -0.35% TIME 08 : 04:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD broke all support levels yesterday and determined clear negative bias. Recovery action is possible above the resistive structure at 1.3302 (R1). Clearance here would enable higher targets at 1.3324 (R2) and 1.3346 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next on tap locates support level at 1.3245 (S1). Possible penetration below it would open way towards to next target at 1.3223 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.3201 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3302, 1.3324, 1.3346
Support Levels: 1.3245, 1.3223, 1.3201

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54937 LOW 1.54316 BID 1.54332 ASK 1.54345 CHANGE -0.32% TIME 08 : 04:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility on the upside today, however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5503 (R1) might push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.5531 (R2) and 1.5558 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend evolvement might get more stimulus below the support level at 1.5417 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.5391 (S2) and 1.5365 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5503, 1.5531, 1.5558
Support Levels: 1.5417, 1.5391, 1.5365

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.181 LOW 96.201 BID 96.899 ASK 96.901 CHANGE 0.48% TIME 08 : 04:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 97.26 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 97.61 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 97.93 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible bull back formation might face next hurdle at 96.39 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 96.07 (S2) en route to final aim at 95.75 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.26, 97.61, 97.93
Support Levels: 96.39, 96.07, 95.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 21, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 21 2013

EU Fin Min struck deal on bank bailouts

Eurozone ministers struck a deal over the origin of funds for bank
bailouts from now on. While the local government will contribute 20% of
the new capital, the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) bailout fund
will become the major contributor with an 80%, according to an official
cited by Reuters. Moreover, EU finance ministers made an agreement for
the ESM to be used as an investment vehicle for banks under stress, with
each being assessed individually to become eligible to the aid, Reuters
reported. With regards to Cyprus, EU Finance Ministers were clear that
Cyprus must live up to its word by fulfilling its financial obligations.
Furthermore, President of the Eurogroup Dijsselbloem was quoted on a
headline saying "Implementation of agreed Cypriot baliout program is
indispensible", noting that implementation is key for the Bank of Cyrus,
also adding that there is likely to be a limit of 60bn euro on direct
bank recap fund, although this can be reviewed.

The EUR/USD suffered more losses today, declining another 75 pips and
closing at 1.3218. However, it should be noted the pair did trade as low
as 1.3160 at one point, but was able to recover a decent portion of its
losses before the end of the day. Analysts were discussing the release
of the most recent EU PMI figures, which hit the tape during the
previous European session.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/21062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | EMU. EcoFin Meeting

2013-06-21 06:35 GMT | Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

2013-06-21 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Jun)

2013-06-21 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-21 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD attempting to holds its ground, finds firm bids near 1.3160

2013-06-21 03:31 GMT | USD/JPY to revist 100.00 next week - Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

2013-06-21 02:46 GMT | AUD/USD edging higher towards 0.9250

2013-06-21 02:10 GMT | EUR/JPY advances capped below 130.00

-----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32545 LOW 1.31995 BID 1.32345 ASK 1.32348 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 0 8: 31:10

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting busy session ahead however
upwards extension above the resistance at 1.3255 (R1) level would keep
the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at
1.3272 (R2) and 1.3287 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our key support level
locates at 1.3223 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this mark would
open way towards to next target at 1.3206 (S2) and then final support
locates at 1.3190 (S3) price level.

Resistance Levels: 1.3255, 1.3272, 1.3287

Support Levels: 1.3223, 1.3206, 1.3190

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55228 LOW 1.54896 BID 1.54975 ASK 1.54987 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 31:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today offers a key resistive
barrier at 1.5525 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would
suggest next intraday targets at 1.5549 (R2) and 1.5572 (R3). Downwards
scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for GBP versus
the Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.5485 (S1), break
here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.5462 (S2) and 1.5438
(S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5388, 1.5413

Support Levels: 1.5301, 1.5276, 1.5251

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.888 LOW 96.861 BID 97.833 ASK 97.833 CHANGE 0.6% TIME 08 : 31:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains stable below the 20 SMA. Possible price
appreciation is limited to the resistance level at 98.08 (R1). Only
clear break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.36 (R2) and
98.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recent upside momentum likely exhausted
and we expect some stabilization ahead. Next supportive bastion lies at
97.52 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday
targets at 97.25 (S2) and 96.98 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.08, 98.36, 98.63

Support Levels: 97.52, 97.25, 96.98

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

alayoua · June 24, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 25 2013

Will Fed Speeches Halt the Dollar Rally?

Based on the sell-off in global equities and rise in bond yields around the world, deleveraging in the financial markets intensified. However in the forex market, the U.S. dollar appears to have stabilized. Early losses for many major currencies against the dollar were recovered by the end of the day. In fact, the AUD/USD even ended the North American trading session in positive territory. Does this mean that the dollar rally has peaked? No. There were no fundamental drivers behind the reversal in the greenback outside of exhaustion. U.S. stocks continued to decline, extending losses that began at the end of May. While the S&P 500 is still up more than 11% year to date, it lost 6% of its value since setting a record high of 1,669.16 on May 21st. With 1,500 in sight more losses are likely for the S&P 500 and additional weakness in equities is a reflection of risk aversion, which could lead to further strength for the greenback.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-25 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals (May)
2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders (May)
2013-06-25 13:00 GMT | USA. Housing Price Index (MoM) (May)
2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | USA. New Home Sales (MoM) (May)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-25 02:02 GMT | USD/JPY retesting 98.00 as Nikkei jumps 1%
2013-06-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD well supported by 0.9250, 1h EMA
2013-06-25 01:01 GMT | GBP/JPY struggling around the 151.00 handle
2013-06-25 00:21 GMT | EUR/JPY structurally bearish, above 128.40 sees relief

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31356 LOW 1.31105 BID 1.31152 ASK 1.31158 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 19:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: A buying interest might push the pair to attack next resistive measure at 1.3144 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume upside formation, targeting marks at 1.3162 (R2) and 1.3180 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, further downtrend formation might commence below the support level at 1.3104 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 1.3087 (S2) and 1.3069 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3144, 1.3162, 1.3180
Support Levels: 1.3104, 1.3087, 1.3069

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5455 LOW 1.5425 BID 1.54402 ASK 1.54410 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 19:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited to the psychological resistance level at 1.5466 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5486 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 1.5506 (R3). Downwards scenario: Break of the support at 1.5426 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.5405 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 1.5385 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5466, 1.5486, 1.5506
Support Levels: 1.5426, 1.5405, 1.5385

-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.065 LOW 97.275 BID 97.436 ASK 97.441 CHANGE -0.28% TIME 08 : 19:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.87 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 98.11 (R2) and 98.36 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 97.21 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 96.98 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 96.73 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.87, 98.11, 98.36
Support Levels: 97.21, 96.98, 96.73

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC )

alayoua · June 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 26 2013

Pause Before Another Big Move?

Based on the price action over the past 48 hours in the forex market, volatility has declined as traders and investors wait for a fresh catalyst to drive the dollar higher. Better than expected U.S. economic data helped the greenback hold onto its gains against most of the major currencies but after such an extensive rally, the market is waiting for some confirmation that the Federal Reserve is on track to taper this year and won't do too much damage on the U.S. economy. The latest economic reports suggests that the economy may be able handle less stimulus but that is far from certain. As we said on Monday, the key is whether the other FOMC members are onboard with the idea. Right now, currency traders are in wait and see mode as they look forward to the next big catalyst - which could come from the speeches by Fed officials.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-26 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
2013-06-26 09:30 GMT | UK. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product. Annualized
2013-06-26 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-26 04:35 GMT | The Greenback awaits next catalyst
2013-06-26 03:41 GMT | EUR/USD feeling the selling pressure; holds above 1.3050
2013-06-26 02:33 GMT | GBP/USD risk skewed to the downside - RBS
2013-06-26 01:59 GMT | USD/JPY dips below 98.00 on Yen strength

--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30872 LOW 1.30569 BID 1.30681 ASK 1.30687 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08:21:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in downtrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3102 (R1) might trigger corrective action towards to our initial targets at 1.3129 (R2) and 1.3156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3054 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable bearish pressure towards to next aims at 1.3029 (S2) and 1.3004 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3102, 1.3129, 1.3156
Support Levels: 1.3054, 1.3029, 1.3004

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54273 LOW 1.54022 BID 1.54215 ASK 1.54227 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08:21:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders yesterday though medium term bias remains negative. Next visible fractals level at 1.5436 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 1.5458 (R2) and 1.5479 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.5397 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.5377 (S2) and 1.5356 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5436, 1.5458, 1.5479
Support Levels: 1.5397, 1.5377, 1.5356

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.235 LOW 97.646 BID 97.770 ASK 97.773 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:21:15

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 97.92 (R1). Rise above that level would suggest next interim target at 98.14 (R2) and then final aim locates at 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 97.39 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 97.19 (S2) and 96.99 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37
Support Levels: 97.39, 97.19, 96.99

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013

EU FinMin reach deal on bank resolution rules

EU Finance Ministers reached, at the second attempt, an agreement on the new policy to manage restructuring and liquidation of banks. The deal is part of efforts to establish a banking union, which has as ultimate objective to break the link between bank debt and sovereign debt. The EcoFin meeting, celebrated ahead of Thursday's EU Summit, agreed what types of creditors must take losses in future banking crises, according to diplomatic sources. The draft document ensures that depositors with savings under â‚¬100,000 will be protected from any loss. The agreement has to be now ratified by the heads of state and government at the summit.

German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release today and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears. Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary. Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys. These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/27062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Jun)
2013-06-27 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)
2013-06-27 14:00 GMT | USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (May)
2013-06-27 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-27 04:58 GMT | AUD/CAD, mid/low 0.99 might be retested
2013-06-27 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD bounces from sub-1.53 support
2013-06-27 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD, key day to further define sentiment
2013-06-27 03:52 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.9330/40 still proves challenging

----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30353 LOW 1.30046 BID 1.30350 ASK 1.30353 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 45:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated above the moving averages and determined corrective phase from the initial downtrend formation. On the way is key resistive measure at 1.3058 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.3085 (R2) and 1.3112 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the next support at 1.3014 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2961 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3085, 1.3112
Support Levels: 1.3014, 1.2988, 1.2961

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5346 LOW 1.53087 BID 1.53355 ASK 1.53356 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 45:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative and possible price appreciation is limited to resistive barrier at 1.5363 (R1). Prolonged movement above that level would suggest next targets at 1.5392 (R2) and 1.5421 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 1.5314 (S1). Breakthrough here would open road for a downside expansion towards to our initial targets at 1.5286 (S2) and 1.5257 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5392, 1.5421
Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5286, 1.5257

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.86 LOW 97.565 BID 97.731 ASK 97.735 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 46:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend development. Next resistive barrier is seen at 97.92 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 98.14 (R2) and 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 97.51 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 97.28 (S2) and 97.05 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.

Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37
Support Levels: 97.51, 97.28, 97.05

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 28, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 28 2013

Should the Dollar be Worried about Fed Comments?

Fed Presidents Dudley, Powell and Lockhart spoke yesterday and with the first 2 being voting members of the FOMC this year, its no surprise that their comments triggered intraday volatility in the dollar. All 3 Fed Presidents said that it may be appropriate for the central bank to taper asset purchases in 2013 and end QE buying in mid-2014 but the markets chose to hone in on Dudley's comment that QE depends on the economic outlook and not the calendar and could be prolonged if the economy misses their forecasts. There's no question that the recent rise in U.S. yields has irritated central bankers but the fact Dudley still repeated Bernanke's timing after qualifying the conditions for QE means that this uber dove is most likely onboard with the idea of reducing asset purchases. Fed President Powell's stance was similar - while he sees the central bank scaling back purchases this year, he said it is data and not date dependent. Both Dudley and Lockhart didn't see Bernanke's press conference last week as a strong signal of Fed policy or a major shift but rather a "soft notion" of when QE could end.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/28062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-28 06:00 GMT | UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Jun)
2013-06-28 12:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
2013-06-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
2013-06-28 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-28 05:27 GMT | AUD/JPY set to recover towards 94.00 - Westpac
2013-06-28 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD struggles around the 20 hourly EMA
2013-06-28 03:29 GMT | EUR/AUD easing below 1.4150
2013-06-28 02:58 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly highs shy of 99.00

---------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30747 LOW 1.30301 BID 1.30613 ASK 1.30618 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 16:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.3077 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.3101 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.3124 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to next support barrier at 1.3042 (S1). Break here is required to enable further downtrend formation towards to lower targets at 1.3018 (S2) and 1.2993 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3077, 1.3101, 1.3124
Support Levels: 1.3042, 1.3018, 1.2993

-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52745 LOW 1.52413 BID 1.52688 ASK 1.52695 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 16:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced its consolidation phase on the hourly chart today. Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 1.5283 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and validate next intraday targets at 1.5311 (R2) and 1.5338 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5240 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5186 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5283, 1.5311, 1.5338
Support Levels: 1.5240, 1.5213, 1.5186

-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.022 LOW 98.335 BID 98.844 ASK 98.849 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 16:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is improved for the bullish oriented traders however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 99.06 (R1) to enable our interim target at 99.36 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 99.67 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 98.58 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 98.27 (S2) and 97.97 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.06, 99.36, 99.67
Support Levels: 98.58, 98.27, 97.97

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 30, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 01 2013

China top banking regulator says enough liquidity

The Chinese top banking regulatory body appeased fears over the credit crunch in the country, saying that liquidity remains ample for the interbank needs. Regulators reassured the markets by pledging to tighten risk controls over local government, real estate and shadow banking. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Mr. Shang, said "excess reserves more than double amount necessary", although Shanga failed to provide further details on how they intend to reduce shadow banking practices.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-01 07:58 GMT | EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-07-01 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-07-01 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Manufacturing PMI

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-01 04:59 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the decline above 1.5200
2013-07-01 04:50 GMT | Will the big USD rally be sustainable?
2013-07-01 03:36 GMT | AUD/USD breaking above 0.9180
2013-07-01 02:17 GMT | EUR/AUD hovering above 1.4200

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30325 LOW 1.30053 BID 1.30286 ASK 1.30289 CHANGE 0.16% TIME 08:40:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Without tier one macroeconomic news announcement neutral mode remains favored. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.3040 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.3062 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.2990 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.2971 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.2951 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3062, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.2990, 1.2971, 1.2951

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52265 LOW 1.51953 BID 1.52248 ASK 1.52258 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:40:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Descending structure on GBPUSD suggests possible correction ahead. Break above the resistance at 1.5240 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 1.5271 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 1.5303 (R3) Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5187 (S1). Penetration below it might shift medium-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5159 (S2) and 1.5130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5240, 1.5271, 1.5303
Support Levels: 1.5187, 1.5159, 1.5130

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.54 LOW 99.176 BID 99.389 ASK 99.396 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 08:40:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY clearly determined positive bias on the medium-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive structure at 99.56 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 99.84 (R2) and 100.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 99.13 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to the next supportive barrier at 98.85 (S2) and any further correction development would then be targeting final support at 98.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.56, 99.84, 100.11
Support Levels: 99.13, 98.85, 98.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 1, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 02 2013

AUD/USD hits lowest at 0.9158 as RBA retains dovish tone

AUD/USD has been extending its decline post the RBA rate decision, as traders disccount further rate cuts by the central bank going forward. Amid expectations that the rate would be on hold, all the focus was on the wording used by the RBA. Unfortunately for the anxious bulls, there was no surprise on the dovish tone either, with the RBA repeating the old line "the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." What is worse, the RBA stated "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level", which was a hint that despite the dramatic fall, the currency is still not low enough, thus market is now pricing the fact that a lower AUD may not be an impediment to reduce rates further should that be necessary.

The lowest level so far has been 0.9156, an area that converges with the sequence of lows seen on July 1 and June 24 on the hourly chart. The level is also the 61.8% fib retrac from the 0.9110 to 0.9250 relief rally. It appears as though some bids are emerging now from lows, with the rate up at 0.9170. On the upside, some offers may be clustered at 0.9175 - lows through last US session - ahead of 0.92 round number and 0.9250 - twin top today.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | USA. Factory Orders (May)
2013-07-02 21:45 GMT | USA. FOMC Member Powell Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-02 04:35 GMT | AUD/USD touches 0.92 handle after RBA
2013-07-02 04:02 GMT | GBP/USD unchanged so far for the week around the 1.52 handle
2013-07-02 02:47 GMT | EUR/JPY testing 130 round bids
2013-07-02 02:46 GMT | NZD/USD, overall bearish risk not eliminated - JPMorgan

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30708 LOW 1.30493 BID 1.30573 ASK 1.30576 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 28:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.3073 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3095 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3046 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3025 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3004 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3073, 1.3095, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3046, 1.3025, 1.3004

-----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52197 LOW 1.51935 BID 1.52082 ASK 1.52091 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.5224 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5248 (R2) and 1.5276 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.5183 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.5155 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.5128 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5224, 1.5248, 1.5276
Support Levels: 1.5183, 1.5155, 1.5128

------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.75 LOW 99.51 BID 99.712 ASK 99.717 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Bearish

Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 99.90 (R1) would likely create bullish momentum and enable next intraday targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 99.47 (S1) would allow further market decline on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 99.18 (S2) and 98.90 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.90, 100.18, 100.45
Support Levels: 99.47, 99.18, 98.90

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 2, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 03 2013

U.S. Dollar Faces its First Test

With 2 more days to go before the pivotal U.S. non-farm payrolls report, the dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies. Milestones were reached in some pairs while others broke key levels. The sustainability of the dollar's rally has been nothing short of impressive but it should not surprise investors since the strongest moves in the FX market are the ones supported by fundamental drivers. In this case the Federal Reserve is getting ready to reduce the amount of stimulus that it provides to the economy and investors are just looking for economic data to confirm that the economy is ready for tapering. The dollar faces its first test today with a number of U.S. economic reports on the calendar that will help shape expectations for Friday's release. The day starts off with a layoff report from Challenger Grey & Christmas that will be followed by the ADP Employment Change, jobless claims and most importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index. Earlier this week we learned that the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the first time since 2009 and now the question is whether the service sector suffered the same fate. We don't think that it did because otherwise the Fed would not have lowered its unemployment rate forecasts but there's always the risk the data could surprise to the downside. Layoffs are expected to decline and most likely ADP will report an increase in U.S. payrolls.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/03072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-03 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Services PMI (Jun)
2013-07-03 12:15 GMT | USA. ADP Employment Change (Jun)
2013-07-03 12:30 GMT | USA. Trade Balance (May)
2013-07-03 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-03 04:42 GMT | EUR/USD depressed below 1.30, U.S
2013-07-03 03:47 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged in the Asia-Pacific after lots of noise
2013-07-03 03:29 GMT | GBP/JPY rises to 151.50 after bullish reversal intraday
2013-07-03 03:20 GMT | AUD/JPY dumped below 92 as RBA Stevens speak

-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29834 LOW 1.29618 BID 1.29628 ASK 1.29633 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 39:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.2989 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a recovery action towards to next interim target at 1.3013 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.3038 (R3) Downwards scenario: Medium-term descending structure might get more stimulus if the price manages to overcome next support level at 1.2954 (S1). Clearance here would suggest initial targets at 1.2923 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2989, 1.3013, 1.3038
Support Levels: 1.2954, 1.2923, 1.2910

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51631 LOW 1.51428 BID 1.51433 ASK 1.51442 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 40:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is negative according to the technical indicators. Though any prolonged movement above the resistive measure at 1.5181 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5209 (R2) and 1.5237 (R3). Downwards scenario: Depreciation below the support level at 1.5133 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5107 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5080 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5181, 1.5209, 1.5237
Support Levels: 1.5133, 1.5107, 1.5080

-------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.855 LOW 100.443 BID 100.672 ASK 100.675 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 40:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 100.87 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 101.12 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 101.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Devaluation below the support at 100.42 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 100.16 (S2) en route to final target at 99.91 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.87, 101.12, 101.38
Support Levels: 100.42, 100.16, 99.91

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 3, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

EUR - Beware of the ECB

Since the last ECB meeting, we have seen more improvements than deterioration in the Eurozone economy. In Germany specifically, consumer spending has been healthy, unemployment rolls have declined, leading to an improvement in business and investor confidence. However the strength was not without areas of weakness. Businesses and investors grew more optimistic about future economic activity but more grim about current activity. Considering that the current performance of the economy is what really matters, the ECB may look beyond everyone's hope for improvement. Also stronger service sector activity in the region's largest economy was offset by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. So as you can see the recovery in the Eurozone is uneven and when combined with a 5% sell-off in the DAX, since the last meeting the ECB has very little to be optimistic about.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-04 08:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
2013-07-04 11:00 GMT | UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | EMU. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-04 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD lingers at 1.30, awaits the ECB
2013-07-04 04:59 GMT | NZD/USD flat for the session unable to overcome the 0.78 handle
2013-07-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD retraces into 1.5250 post bullish engulfing day
2013-07-04 03:23 GMT | AUD/USD jumps on RBA Lowe's comments

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30233 LOW 1.29875 BID 1.29937 ASK 1.29943 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 23:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3015 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3053 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the downtrend development is seen below the support level at 1.2984 (S1). Weakening below this mark might clear the way towards to immediate supports at 1.2965 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3). ECB interest rate announcement is a key factor today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3035, 1.3053
Support Levels: 1.2984, 1.2965, 1.2945

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52831 LOW 1.52513 BID 1.52575 ASK 1.52583 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 23:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable prior BOE interest rate decision, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5293 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.5316 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5238 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5213 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5186 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5316, 1.5341
Support Levels: 1.5238, 1.5213, 1.5186

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.091 LOW 99.692 BID 99.847 ASK 99.849 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 23:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.42 (R2) and then mark at 100.70 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 99.63 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 99.36 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 99.09 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.42, 100.70
Support Levels: 99.63, 99.36, 99.09

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 4, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 05 2013

EUR and GBP Crushed by ECB and BoE

Big moves are happening in the FX market yesterday. The euro and British pound dropped to 5 week lows against the U.S. dollar, taking out key levels in the process. The absence of U.S. traders most likely compounded the volatility in currencies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged but Mario Draghi and Mark Carney made it clear that both central banks have a bias to ease. The dovish comments from European central bankers were motivated by the recent volatility in interest rates and a desire to set themselves apart from the Federal Reserve who is on a path to reduce stimulus. The ECB and the BoE wants everyone to know that they are still prepared to increase stimulus if the volatility in the bond markets persist or their economies weaken. In the Eurozone in particular, the EUR/USD dropped through 1.30 and 1.29. The currency started to fall as soon as Draghi said that policy will remains accommodative as long as needed, there are downside risks to their economic outlook and rates will stay low for an extended period of time. The sell-off gained momentum when the central bank took the unprecedented step of forward guidance. The ECB said there is no exit in sight, they are keeping rates low for an extended period of time, their decision will be data dependent and they are keeping an open mind on negative deposit rates. Draghi also reminded everyone that the central bank is "technically ready" for negative rates. They had an extensive discussion about the possibility of a rate cut and unanimously decided that the guidance was needed which included saying that 50bp is not the lower bound. The central bank is screaming their bias to ease from the top of the mountain - they don't want to leave any room for ambiguity because the risk could be a further rise in yields. Having dropped below 1.29, the next support for the EUR/USD should be at 1.28.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate
2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls
2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Unemployment Rate

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-05 04:51 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8580 asks
2013-07-05 04:46 GMT | NFP amid low liquidity; drastic moves ahead?
2013-07-05 04:22 GMT | GBP/USD hovering around 1.5050
2013-07-05 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD extends decline below 0.9130

EURUSD
HIGH 1.29166 LOW 1.28878 BID 1.28983 ASK 1.28988 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 24:40

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.2931 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.2974 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right above the yesterday low at 1.2881 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our interim target at 1.2862 (S2) and then final aim locates at 1.2842 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2931, 1.2952, 1.2974
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2862, 1.2842

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50777 LOW 1.50268 BID 1.50465 ASK 1.50478 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 24:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Nonfarm Payrolls announcement might change overall technical structure. We see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.5090 (R1). Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5120 (R2) and 1.5151 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5024 (S1). A fall below it might prolong medium-term weakness towards to next support at 1.4992 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.4959 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5090, 1.5120, 1.5151
Support Levels: 1.5024, 1.4992, 1.4959

--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.458 LOW 99.999 BID 100.257 ASK 100.261 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 24:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Neutral tone dominates on the hourly chart frame. Local high offers an important resistive structure at 100.45 (R1). Any penetration above that level would suggest next targets at 100.68 (R2) and 100.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is limited to the next support level at 100.15 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 99.92 (S2) and 99.70 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.45, 100.68, 100.90
Support Levels: 100.15, 99.92, 99.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 7, 2013

ECB members had heated clash over last rate decision

ECB Governing Council members had a confrontational approach over interest rates at their latest board meeting on Thursday, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, citing no sources, the MNI newswire reports. Der Spiegel claims to have obtained insights over the dovish views from ECB chief economist Peter Praet, who proposed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp in the last meeting, an action that ECB President Mario Draghi would have supported.

However, as MNI reports, "seven board members, mainly from northern European member states, were arguing sharply against a rate cut last week, the magazine reported." Der Spiegel reports German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot as well as ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, as the most notoriously opposed to it. As is well known, the final decision taken by the board was to unanimously keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% while providing forward guidance on low rates. Draghi's said that "broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics" will keep rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. Eurogroup Meeting
2013-07-08 13:30 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-07-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Q2)
2013-07-08 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-08 04:59 GMT | Calls to buy USD all over; time to be sellers?
2013-07-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/USD strongly capped below 1.4900
2013-07-08 03:40 GMT | Buy AUD/NZD targeting 1.2130/70 - Societe Generale
2013-07-08 03:38 GMT | AUD/CAD depressed below 0.96 round

------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28319 LOW 1.28106 BID 1.28169 ASK 1.28173 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 30:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.2852 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2905 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday low offers a key support barrier at 1.2805 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2781 (S2) and 1.2757 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.2852, 1.2879, 1.2905
Support Levels: 1.2805, 1.2781, 1.2757

----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48824 LOW 1.48582 BID 1.48765 ASK 1.48774 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 30:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.4923 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead would enable corrective phase, targeting resistive measures at 1.4962 (R2) and 1.4999 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 1.4853 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 1.4818 (S2) and 1.4782 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.4923, 1.4962, 1.4999
Support Levels: 1.4853, 1.4818, 1.4782

-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.531 LOW 101.06 BID 101.095 ASK 101.100 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08:30:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 101.53 (R1) is liable to next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement action might get more stimulus below the support level at 100.87 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 100.58 (S2) and any weakening below it would then face final support at 100.28 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09
Support Levels: 100.87, 100.58, 100.28

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 9, 2013

roika approves next disbursment to Greece

Troika officials struck a deal with Greece this Monday, allowing the
debt-laden country to receive its next tranche of funds, totalling The
money, totaling 6.8bn euros ($8.7bn). The troika of the European
Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) will be responsible to make the funds available end of the
month. Eurozone finance ministers indicated earlier today that 2.5bn
euros would come from the eurozone rescue fund and 1.5bn euros, while
the European Central Bank will contribute with another 1.5bn euros. It
is thought that an additional 500m euros from both the EZ rescue fund
and the ECB will be transferred in October. The IMF will add the
remaining 1.8bn euros.

The loans are subject to Greece showing a committal approach towards the
country's fiscal path, with the Troika demanding further cuts and a
faster implementation of its reform programme, one that has brought the
country to its knees. Despite so, the Troika continues to underline the
slow progress seen so far, as the country continues to struggle through
an era of depression.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | EcoFin Meeting

2013-07-09 08:30 GMT | UK. Manufacturing Production (YoY)

2013-07-09 12:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY)

2013-07-09 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-09 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.4950

2013-07-09 04:50 GMT | EUR/USD aiming at 2nd daily gain

2013-07-09 03:09 GMT | NZD/USD back around 0.78 post-China CPI

2013-07-09 03:02 GMT | AUD/JPY setting stage for a 92.50 breakout?

-----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.28711 LOW 1.2846 BID 1.28677 ASK 1.28683 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08:33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently,
turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure
on the way lies at 1.2892 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday
targets at 1.2909 (R2) and 1.2926 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to
establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support
level at 1.2844 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to our
initial targets at 1.2826 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2892, 1.2909, 1.2926

Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2826, 1.2806

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.4953 LOW 1.49199 BID 1.49434 ASK 1.49442 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08:33:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive measure at
1.4968 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next
intraday targets at 1.4999 (R2) and 1.5029 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any
downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.4918
(S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to
next targets at 1.4884 (S2) and 1.4851 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4968, 1.4999, 1.5029

Support Levels: 1.4918, 1.4884, 1.4851

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.243 LOW 100.768 BID 101.147 ASK 101.151 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08:33:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair
approaches 101.41 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next
interim target at 101.70 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we
expect an exposure of 101.97 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other
hand, break below the support at 100.76 (S1) is required to enable
further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 100.49
(S2) and 100.21 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.41, 101.70, 101.97

Support Levels: 100.76, 100.49, 100.21

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 10 2013

S&P downgrades Italy to BBB, outlook negative

Ratings Agency Standard & Poor's decided to downgrade Italy on Tuesday, cutting the rating to BBB from BBB+. According to S&P, this action reflects their view of the effects of further weakening growth on Italy's economic structure and resilience, and its impaired monetary transmission mechanism. S&P also left their outlook at negative, meaning there is at least one-in-three chance that the rating could be lowered again in 2013 or 2014.

The highlights today will be the FOMC Minutes and Bernankeâ€™s Speech and until then I donâ€™t see an awful lot to move things around. The 4 hour charts are showing some minor bullish divergence and we could see the odd bounce but the dailies continue to point lower and I suspect that the low 1.2700 area will soon be tested. In the meantime leave room for bounces as the 4 hour charts unwind. We will be adding to our shorts if we see a bounce into the 1.2850/1.2900 in the coming session. German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech Economic data highlights will include: German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-10 17:00 GMT | USA. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-07-10 18:00 GMT | USA. FOMC Minutes
2013-07-10 20:10 GMT | USA. Fed's Bernanke Speech
N/A | Japan. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-10 05:05 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 101.80 support
2013-07-10 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD finds buyers above 1.4850
2013-07-10 03:56 GMT | EUR/USD unable to regain the 1.28 handle
2013-07-10 03:09 GMT | Gold eases below $1250; Oil below $104

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27868 LOW 1.27648 BID 1.27823 ASK 1.27828 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 13:47

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2805 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 1.2833 (R2) and 1.2862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.2754 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2727 (S2) and 1.2699 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.2805, 1.2833, 1.2862
Support Levels: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2699

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48973 LOW 1.48451 BID 1.48948 ASK 1.48958 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 13:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.4926 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.4972 (R2) and 1.5018 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low provides an important supportive mark at 1.4813 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.4767 (S2) and 1.4722 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.4926, 1.4972, 1.5018
Support Levels: 1.4813, 1.4767, 1.4722

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.216 LOW 100.374 BID 100.405 ASK 100.410 CHANGE -0.74% TIME 08 : 13:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 100.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 101.02 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 101.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the support level at 100.15 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 99.87 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 99.63 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.76, 101.02, 101.29
Support Levels: 100.15, 99.87, 99.63

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 11, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 12 2013

ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further

The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: â€œThe Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.â€ There was also some clarification of its time horizon: â€œThe extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Councilâ€™s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."

Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that â€œthe overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.â€
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
2013-07-12 17:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Bullard speech

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-12 04:44 GMT | GBP/USD eases below 1.5200
2013-07-12 03:27 GMT | Gold below $1290, Oil above $104
2013-07-12 02:41 GMT | AUD/USD defending 0.9130 support
2013-07-12 01:42 GMT | USD/JPY breaks through stops at 99.10

-----------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:26:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208
Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08:26:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278
Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088

-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:26:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98
Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 14, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 15 2013

Fitch downgrades France to AA+ from AAA

Fitch Ratings has downgraded France to AA+ from AAA on Friday, keeping a stable outlook on the country's debt. Fitch, which joins S&P and Moody's in removing the country's AAA rating, cited the high level of the French government indebtedness as one of the main reasons of the downgrade. Fitch expects France's general government debt to peak at 96% of GDP in 2014 and decline only gradually over the long term, remaining at 92% in 2017. "The only 'AAA' country with a higher debt ratio is the U.S. (AAA/negative), which has exceptional financing flexibility and debt tolerance afforded by the preeminent global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," Fitch said in a statement.

Standard & Poor's has affirmed on Friday Germany's top triple-A sovereign credit rating, with a stable outlook. The rating agency justified its decision saying that â€œGermany has a highly diversified and competitive economy with a demonstrated ability to absorb large economic and financial shocks.â€ As far as the outlook on the long-term rating is concerned, S&P's decision to keep it 'stable' reflects their view that: â€œGermany's public finances and strong external balance sheet will continue to withstand potential financial and economic shocks.â€
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Producer and Import Prices (YoY)
2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Tarullo speech
2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM)
2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-15 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD treading water above 1.5100
2013-07-15 03:49 GMT | AUD/USD exposed to 0.80/0.85 fall - RBS
2013-07-15 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.2930-80 key to technical outlook - BBH
2013-07-15 02:39 GMT | USD/JPY flat above 99.00 with Tokyo closed

---------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3079 LOW 1.30513 BID 1.30773 ASK 1.30773 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:00:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: With limited economic data flow today we expect further neutral tone development. However, price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3124 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3157 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.3044 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2974 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3124, 1.3157
Support Levels: 1.3044, 1.3008, 1.2974

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51287 LOW 1.5098 BID 1.51257 ASK 1.51268 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:00:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5141 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5173(R2) and 1.5203 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.5088 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.5059 (S2) and 1.5028 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5173, 1.5203
Support Levels: 1.5088, 1.5059, 1.5028

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.383 LOW 99.074 BID 99.271 ASK 99.272 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:00:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 99.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 99.68 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 99.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 99.03 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.83 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.61 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.46, 99.68, 99.90
Support Levels: 99.03, 98.83, 98.61

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 16, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke â€“ again!

Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernankeâ€™s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asiaâ€™s focus.

The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECBâ€™s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF â€“ European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY
2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's
2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080
2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ
2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise

-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:21:26

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171
Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969

--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:21:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216
Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004

-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08:21:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60
Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 18, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 19 2013

Bernanke: Too early to say when tapering will start

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Congress for a second day on Thursday. While the introductory statement remained unchanged, investors didn't get new insights from the Q&A session before the Senate Banking Committee. When asked about the time the Fed will scale back its monthly bond-buying programme, he said "it's way too early to make any judgment" as the Fed wants to see sustainable improvement in labor markets. Bernanke also said he has broad support for his policy outlook through the Fed leadership. "We've not changed policy. We are not talking about tightening monetary policy", Bernanke said. He added that none of what the Fed has communicated about winding down its bond purchases implies tighter policy in the foreseeable future. Among other remarks, Bernanke said he doesn't see risks to financial stability from student debt, though he said it could have negative economic consequences in the long-term. "It is not particularly likely to cause any sharp instability of the sort we saw in the last few years", Bernanke said Thursday.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19072013

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. G20 Meeting
2013-07-19 06:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-19 08:30 GMT | UK. Public Sector Net Borrowing
2013-07-19 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-19 04:48 GMT | GBP/USD surge capped below 1.5250
2013-07-19 04:08 GMT | EUR/USD knocking on the door of short-term break above 1.3205
2013-07-19 03:13 GMT | USD/JPY touches the 100 handle on Yen strength
2013-07-19 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD supported on broad USD weakness

---------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31503 LOW 1.30891 BID 1.31386 ASK 1.31391 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 26:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.3151 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3204 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3112 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3086 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3060 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3151, 1.3179, 1.3204
Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3086, 1.3060

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52504 LOW 1.51963 BID 1.52323 ASK 1.52327 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market strengthening is required to clear resistive barrier at 1.5252 (R1). Next visible resistances are seen at 1.5281 (R2) and 1.5311 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5194 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5162(S2) and 1.5130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5252, 1.5281, 1.5311
Support Levels: 1.5194, 1.5162, 1.5130

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.866 LOW 99.809 BID 100.063 ASK 100.068 CHANGE -0.36% TIME 08 : 26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of upwards action is seen above the next resistance level at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to let the price achieve our higher intraday targets at 100.41 (R2) and 100.61 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 99.80 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 99.62 (S2) and 99.43 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
Support Levels: 99.80, 99.62, 99.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 21, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 22 2013

Portugal's president backs coalition government

Portugal president AnÃbal Cavaco Silva on Sunday supported the current
coalition government, saying they should stay till end of the term,
ending weeks of political crisis in the country, which had led
international actors to even threaten the country's â‚¬78 billion
international bailout. "As the national salvation compromise was
impossible to achieve, I consider that the best alternative solution is
for the present government to remain in its functions, with reinforced
guarantees of cohesion and solidity of the coalition, until the end of
its term (in 2015)" Mr. Cavaco said. Further headlines were provided by
Bloomberg, with Cavaco saying he "laments talks on â€˜National salvationâ€™
agreement failed to produce results", and that "agreement will
eventually be imposed by reality in future."

Session in the Asia-Pacific to start the week opened with an early move
higher in Yen that soon corrected to break even before Tokyo started
trading, but then as soon as traders hit the floor the Yen rose again to
as high as 99.57 of the USD/JPY pair. The Yen move became in broad USD
weakness following Japan PM Abe's upper house win, taking EUR/USD to
session highs at 1.3170, AUD/USD to 0.9228, and Cable to 1.5298. Nikkei
index opened in the 14750 region but soon eased to break even shy of
14600. Gold and Silver broke higher above key $1300 resistance in case
of Gold, while Oil remained above the $108 handle. Local share markets
traded mixed with China mainland and Japan in the negative, while
Australia and Korea still in the positive.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-22 07:00 GMT | Stitzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Jul)

2013-07-22 12:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)

2013-07-22 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change (Jun)

2013-07-22 15:30 GMT | USA. 6-Month Bill Auction

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-22 04:53 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.93 to mark a cap in the recovery - BBH

2013-07-22 04:47 GMT | GBP/USD capped below 1.53 ahead of London

2013-07-22 04:45 GMT | AUD/JPY to peak at 94.00 in September - NAB

2013-07-22 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD holding gains above 1.3150

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31694 LOW 1.31329 BID 1.31529 ASK 1.31534 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08:19:28

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is positive for the EURUSD
as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance at
1.3178 (R1) would clear the way for an upside penetration towards to
next visible targets at 1.3201 (R2) and 1.3224 (R3). Downwards scenario:
Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3130 (S1) is
required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be
mark at 1.3105 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3081 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3178, 1.3201, 1.3224

Support Levels: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3081

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52971 LOW 1.52577 BID 1.52831 ASK 1.52842 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:19:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Further uptrend development is limited now to the next
resistive measure at 1.5311 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable
our interim target at 1.5341 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.5372 (R3).
Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the
technically important support level at 1.5246 (S1) might lead to the
correction formation on the short-term perspective. Possible targets
lies at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5182 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5311, 1.5341, 1.5372

Support Levels: 1.5246, 1.5213, 1.5182

---------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.62 LOW 99.608 BID 100.041 ASK 100.044 CHANGE -0.6% TIME 08:19:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the
resistance level at 100.18 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate
next interim target at 100.36 (R2) and any further rise would then be
targeting mark at 100.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside,
support level at 99.80 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break
here is required to enable lower target at 99.63 (S2) en route to final
aim at 99.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.18, 100.36, 100.55

Support Levels: 99.80, 99.63, 99.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 23, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 23 2013

Bank of Japan stands ready to inject further stimulus

The Bank of Japan is prepared to provide further easing to the economy should signs fail to emerge about an economic recovery, including an inflation mandate of 2% in the short-run. According to BoJ board member Takehiro Sato, more stimulus is a real possibility if the economy's recovery is threatened, naming a few risks such as slower-than-expected growth in China. "A high degree of uncertainty remains concerning the global economy, and I see risks to the economic outlook as somewhat tilted to the downside," Sato said.

"The BOJ does not exclude the implementation of additional measures and will not hesitate to fine-tune its policies flexibly when unexpected tail risks materialise," Sato added in a speech to business leaders in Fukushima, northeastern Japan. Sato also said the 2% inflation should be seen as a flexible target, subject to change in the 2-year projections, a timeframe which had been repeatedly mentioned by BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda in past meetings. "If the inflation rate is projected to stabilise within a certain range, with the median being 2 per cent price growth, the main objective of the bank's policy will have been fulfilled," Sato said. Mr Sato, an economist who joined the BOJ board last year, was nonetheless more optimistic about japanâ€™s economy from a year earlier, saying a recovery was "coming into view", presenting a "window of opportunity" to overcome deflation.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-23 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals
2013-07-23 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales
2013-07-23 13:00 GMT | USA. Housing Price Index
2013-07-23 14:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Confidence

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-23 03:27 GMT | EUR/JPY back around 131.50 on Euro strength
2013-07-23 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD struggling above 0.9280 highs
2013-07-23 02:42 GMT | GBP/USD conquers 1.5304 resistance â€“ now targeting key level at 1.5432
2013-07-23 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD faces risk for extension into 1.20/1.18 - JPMorgan

--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32072 LOW 1.31827 BID 1.31970 ASK 1.31975 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 37:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Yesterday high at 1.3217 (R1) limits further uptrend establishment. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 1.3243 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Depreciation below the support level at 1.3177 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.3152 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.3126 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3217, 1.3243, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3177, 1.3152, 1.3126

-----------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53767 LOW 1.53548 BID 1.53667 ASK 1.53673 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 37:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Fractal level at 1.5385 (R1) offers next resistive barrier. Penetration above that mark might trigger upside pressure and expose our next resistive mean at 1.5415 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5445 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Price devaluation below the support at 1.5345 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5315 (S2) en route to final target at 1.5285 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5385, 1.5415, 1.5445
Support Levels: 1.5345, 1.5315, 1.5285

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.68 LOW 99.143 BID 99.465 ASK 99.467 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 37:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains under the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend formation. Strengthening above the next resistive structure at 99.70 (R1) might activate medium-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 99.86 (R2) and 100.02 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside expansion might face next hurdle at 99.28 (S1). Break here is liable to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 99.13 (S2) and 98.98 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 99.70, 99.86, 100.02
Support Levels: 99.28, 99.13, 98.98

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 24, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 24 2013

China sets 7% growth as bottom line, eyes fresh stimulus

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang provided a juicy headline during Tuesday, suggesting the country may have to rethink its 'non-stimulatory' monetary policies should the economic growth fall below 7%, according to local media reports. Mr Li said that 7% is seen as the 'bottom line', and if target not met, there will be other options on the table as the government cannot afford the growth rate to deteriorate further, Xinhua News Agency reported. According to Beijing News, Mr. Li added: "As long as the economic growth rate, employment and other indicators don't slip below our lower limit and inflation doesn't exceed our upper limit we'll focus on restructuring and pushing reforms." As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the Telegraph notes: "Mr Li's comments suggest a major shift in policy by Beijing, which has deliberately engineered a slow-down over recent months by squeezing credit. The government has been rattled by upheavals in the interbank market and has begun to heed warnings that the crackdown has gone too far."
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-24 07:58 GMT | EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-07-24 12:58 GMT | USA. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-07-24 14:00 GMT | USA. New Home Sales
2013-07-24 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-24 05:02 GMT | EUR/GBP shuffling sideways after Tuesdayâ€™s bounce ahead of Euro-data
2013-07-24 04:25 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.8870/0.8770 next important target - JPMorgan
2013-07-24 04:11 GMT | GBP/USD slips after Chinese data. Overbought correction starting?
2013-07-24 03:07 GMT | USD/JPY proving 99.50 as strong support

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32267 LOW 1.31986 BID 1.32055 ASK 1.32060 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08:39:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Despite the price is tested negative territory today further market strengthening is possible. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3230 (R1) would suggest next initial targets at 1.3248 (R2) and 1.3264 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside we put our attention to the next support level at 1.3197 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.3180 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.3162 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3230, 1.3248, 1.3264
Support Levels: 1.3197, 1.3180, 1.3162

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53782 LOW 1.5352 BID 1.53581 ASK 1.53585 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08:39:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Volatility increase on the upside is required to push the price through key resistive measure at 1.5385 (R1). In such scenario we would suggest next targets at 1.5406 (R2) and 1.5427 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 1.5345 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 1.5326 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 1.5305 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5385, 1.5406, 1.5427
Support Levels: 1.5345, 1.5326, 1.5305

----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.8 LOW 99.384 BID 99.711 ASK 99.713 CHANGE 0.3% TIME 08:39:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 99.81 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a recovery action towards to next interim target at 99.93 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 100.06 (R3) Downwards scenario: Clearance of our next support level at 99.59 (S1) is required to enable further trend evolvement on a slightly longer term perspective. Our support levels locates today at 99.46 (S2) and 99.33 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.81, 99.93, 100.06
Support Levels: 99.59, 99.46, 99.33

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 25, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 25 2013

Greece one step away from bailout payment

According to the German finance ministry, Greece has completed 21 out of the 22 measures required by the international lenders in exchange for the next bailout payment. The country still has to implement the â€œmobility schemeâ€ which involves a transfer or dismissal of 12,500 public workers within a year. The measure is expected to be fulfilled until tomorrow. Ryan Littlestone from ForexLive believes that the Troika will finally approve the next bailout payment for Greece, despite the impediments: â€œSeeing as they've never backed down from hand over cash to Greece there's little chance of this episode failing.â€
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-25 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
2013-07-25 12:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders (Jun)
2013-07-25 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims
2013-07-25 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-25 04:53 GMT | EUR/USD rally paused for a day. More upside to come or is correction just starting?
2013-07-25 04:45 GMT | USD/CAD eyes 1.0660 as next target - JPMorgan
2013-07-25 04:30 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.53 ahead of UK GDP
2013-07-25 02:57 GMT | USD/JPY slipping Thursday after a bounce on Wednesday; major resistance looms

-----------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3221 LOW 1.31877 BID 1.32137 ASK 1.32140 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 32:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Recent price acceleration on the upside suggests short-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 1.3230 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 1.3248 (R2) and 1.3264 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3197 (S1). A fall below it might prolong medium-term weakness towards to next support at 1.3180 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.3162 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3230, 1.3248, 1.3264
Support Levels: 1.3197, 1.3180, 1.3162

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53442 LOW 1.5305 BID 1.53378 ASK 1.53387 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 32:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 1.5352 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.5375 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.5397 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is limited to the next support level at 1.5324 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 1.5301 (S2) and 1.5278 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5352, 1.5375, 1.5397
Support Levels: 1.5324, 1.5301, 1.5278

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.456 LOW 99.876 BID 99.972 ASK 99.974 CHANGE -0.27% TIME 08 : 32:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited to resistive measure at 100.06 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 100.18 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 100.30 (R3). Downwards scenario: In order to prolong downside extension, USDJPY should successfully retest our support level at 99.86 (S1). Below it locates our intraday targets at 99.74 (S2) and 99.62 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.18, 100.30
Support Levels: 99.86, 99.74, 99.62

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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