fallenDC

AUD/USD: slowed growth

AUD/USD remains close to the top of the upward channel. Today the pair opened a new high at $1.0612, but then once more slid below the strong $1.0600 level. The pair has been consolidating at current levels for four days.

On the H4 chart we can see a bullish MACD divergence. However, we expect the bullish trend to continue until there is a clearer sign of a trend reversal. Next resistance lies at $1.0636 (March 19 maximum) and at $1.0670 (March 8 maximum). Support is seen at $1.0529 (August 8 minimum) and at $1.0475 (beginning of a downtrend).

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Chart. H4 AUD/USD

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

USD/CHF: bulls vs. bears

US dollar bulls don’t let USD/CHF reverse down despite the ‘head and shoulders’ pattern formed on the daily chart. The pair tested the levels below the 1-year support line, but recoiled up from the 50-day MA. At the same time, there’s resistance around 0.9800 (downtrend resistance from July maximums, 100-period MA on H4 chart).

Don’t forget that 200-week MA at 1.0030 is looming above the pair – the last time pair traded above this line on a sustainable basis was in 2002.

The main technical levels are marked on the chart.

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

RBC: reasons against carry trade

Analysts at RBC recommend investors to stay away from the carry trade. Carry trade is buying high yielding currencies and selling low yielding ones.

The specialists note that euro may seem a good funding currency now. However, they remind that interest rates are low in many countries, not just in the euro zone, and that limits the potential for a carry trade to be profitable. In addition, although volatility has declined recently, it doesn’t compensate the compression of yield spreads. RBC underlines that “the carry-to-risk ratio – a good barometer of the efficacy of carry as an investment strategy – is still far below its historical average.”

If you want to try carry trades even after all these warnings, RBC advices to use for funding not euro, but… Canadian dollar! The proposed trade is longs on AUD/CAD.

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Chart. Daily AUD/CAD

EUR: analysts are bearish

Commerzbank: We suspect that the move higher has terminated ahead of the -month channel resistance at $1.2500.

St. George Bank: It’s hard to see any upside for the euro at the moment. Economic data has been quite soft. There’s still a bit of uncertainty about what the ECB can do and will do in addressing the crisis.

UBS: As euro short-covering had been completed, the currency is expected to stick to narrow ranges until fresh factors emerged.

Mizuho: We’re looking for the euro to go to parity. It will take about a year, but we are heading in that direction.

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EUR’s down on ECB Monthly Bulletin

The ECB released it monthly Bulletin – report which explains the central bank’s monetary policy decision. Euro zone’s growth estimate was revised down to -0.3% (from -0.2% in Q2) in 2012, to +0.6% (from +1.0%) in 2013. 2012 HICP and long term inflation forecasts at 2.3% and 2.0%. The 2013 HICP was lowered from 1.8% to 1.7%, and inflation in 2014 is expected to end at 1.9%.

EUR/USD is once again testing support at $1.2340.

Support: $1.2290, $1.2240, $1.2130, $1.2040.

Resistance: $1.2400, $1.2440, $1.2500.

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Chart. H1 EUR/USD

EUR/GBP: trading comments

EUR/GBP declines for a third consecutive day. The pair slid below 0.7900 after peaking at 0.7961 on Monday.

We expect EUR/GBP to continue a long-term downtrend after a two-week upward correction. The inability to overcome the 50-day MA counts in favor of a downward movement. A break below 0.7845 (23.6% Fib. retracement of a June-July decline) will signal a slide back to 0.7753 (July 23 minimum). In a longer term key support lies in the 0.7694 area (2008 minimums).

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2280, $1.2295, $1.2300, $1.2305, $1.2310, $1.2315, $1.2400, $1.2500;

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5650;

USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.15, 79.10;

AUD/USD: $1.0550;

USD/CAD: 0.9975;

EUR/JPY: 97.55, 97.75, 98.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7825, 0.7890, 0.7900

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August 9: forex news

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The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose for a fourth consecutive day. AUD/USD opened a new 4-month high at $1.0612 after data showed Australian labor market is strong. The number of people employed rose in July by 14K vs. expected increase of 10K. The jobless rate fell from a revised 5.3% in June to 5.2% last month. However, Aussie’s gains were tempered on the news from China.

China released a bunch of important data today: CPI dropped to a 30-month low, rising by 1.8% y/y in July (consensus: 1.7%; previous: 2.2%). PPI dropped by 2.9% (consensus: -2.5%; previous: -2.1%). According to economists, slowing Chinese inflation may offer room for further easing in Asia’s biggest economy, what will support AUD and NZD in the medium term. There are reasons to expect more loose policy in China indeed: the nation’s retail sales added only 13.1% in July (vs. consensus of +13.6%), while industrial production rose only by 9.2% (vs. consensus of +9.8%).

NZD/USD declined to $0.8130 levels. The jobless rate increased to 6.8% from 6.7% in Q1, exceeding the median estimate for 6.5%. Employment fell by 0.1% vs. a forecasted 0.3% growth. According to specialists, negative data is likely to accelerate kiwi’s downward correction.

The consensus opinion won: the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged (benchmark rate below 0.1%, asset-purchase fund at 45 trillion yen ($573 billion) and lending facility at 25 trillion yen). Japan’s machinery orders, an indicator of capital spending, rose 5.6% in June after slumping by 14.8% in May, though economists expected 11.1% gain. USD/JPY is trading to the upside fluctuating up and down on the H1 chart. The spread for 2-year notes increased to 18.4 yesterday, the highest level since July 5. The yield spread between 10-year US Treasuries over JGB widened to more than 2-month maximum.

EUR/USD is capped by the 50-hour MA at $1.2385. Yesterday the pair tested the levels below support at $1.2340. On Wednesday Toronto-based DBRS Inc. cut credit ratings on Spain and Italy. Spanish 10-year yields rose to 6.87% yesterday. German industrial production declined by 0.9% in June from May, when it gained a revised 1.7%. Tomorrow watch for French data. Soft data in the euro area hinders further advance of the single currency.

GBP/USD strengthens for a third consecutive day, while USD/CAD demonstrates a five-day drop, remaining below parity. Canada will release trade balance and housing market data later today.

Also watch US data releases at 12:30 GMT. American trade deficit probably shrank in June as cheaper oil reduced the import bill and slower global growth led to reduced demand for American-made goods. According to the consensus forecast, the gap probably narrowed to $47.5 billion, the 4-month minimum, from $48.7 billion in May. Weekly jobless benefit claims are expected to edge up to 371K from 365K in the previous week.

Standard Chartered: BOJ will increase APP

Analysts at Standard Chartered believe that USD/JPY will stick to the current levels. On the downside USD/JPY will be supported by the risk of the BOJ intervention. On the upside, its advance will be limited by the expectations of more QE from the Fed. The specialists expect the pair to close Q3 (September) at 79.00 and then to strengthen to finish 2012 at 82.00.

Standard Chartered thinks that the Bank of Japan will increase APP (Asset Purchase Program) target by another 5-10 trillion yen tomorrow. As the reasons the specialists cite Japan’s economic growth which is losing momentum, deflationary pressure, strong national currency, expectations of stimulus in the US and Europe. If it happens, markets will be surprised and yen will weaken, though only in the short term.

According to Standard Chartered, Japanese economy will add 2.2% in 2012 and 2% in 2013, while inflation will remain benign at 0.2% in 2012 picking up slightly to 0.3% in 2013. The bank claims that in the longer-term, “the case for more sustained yen’s weakness is building: Japan's shift away from nuclear power adds to the negative terms-of-trade and current account outlook and the nation faces substantial sovereign debt risks of its own.”

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BofA: US recovery is limping

According to Bank of America, US manufacturing sector was resilient and has already reached the pre-crisis levels. However, 70% of US GDP is based on a service sector, which remains depressed. Specialists think this is the reason why the economy still remains weak and is extremely vulnerable to external shocks.

Economists point out that last year the share of manufacturing in the economy increased, but it happened not because of exceptional boom in manufacturing, but because of an exceptionally slow recovery in services.

The dynamics of the recovery of both sectors can be seen from the charts below. This revelation means that US economy faces more obstacles than one can see on the surface.

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Source: Bank of Amarica Merill Lynch

GBP/USD up on BOE data

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On Wednesday GBP/USD first fell from $1.5615 to $1.5573 before the BOE report. As widely expected, the Bank of England cut its growth forecast and said inflation will be below its target in two years as the crisis in the euro area and the U.K. fiscal squeeze weigh on demand. The central bank sees annual GDP growth of about 2% in two years, compared with a projection in May of 2.5%. It sees CPI growth at about 1.6% by then, below its 2% goal.

Other key points of the BoE report:

•Forecasts are based on $375 billion QE and a rate cut in Q2 2013

•UK demand is expected to remain weak in the near-term

•Euro area crisis contiues to weigh on demand

•Strong sterling may hurt export growth

•Biggest threat to UK is a delay in solution to the Euro crisis

Later the British currency bounced back towards yesterday’s high at $1.5685 and tested $1.5672 as the BoE Governor King’s comments pointed to no more rate cuts in the near future. According to him, early indications from FLS scheme are positive, but incertainty coming from the euro area damages demand. King expects the UK GDP to rebound in Q3

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Chart. H4 GBP/USD

USD/CAD: bullish long-term bias (MIG Bank)

Technical analysts at MIG bank note that the greenback keeps sliding to 0.9954 versus its Canadian counterpart.

The specialists regard this level (support of the trend line connecting July 2011 lows and April 2012 minimums) as an important support saying that above this level the bulls will retain strength of pushing USD/CAD higher. If the pair fails to hold above 0.9954, it will slide to 0.9800. Below the latter, the outlook for USD/CAD will turn bearish.

According to the bank, in the longer-term, the ‘falling wedge’ pattern is a bullish signal.

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Chart. Daily USD/CAD

USD/JPY’s supported by rising US yields

Everyone noticed that USD/JPY is supported by rising US yields, but will this become a trend and even if so, will it be able to ensure recovery of the pair?

Both 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields have reached 1-month maximum amid the improvement of the market’s risk appetite. As a result, the yield spread between US and Japanese debt has widened.

Credit Agricole: “Two-year yields have jumped in recent days. As long as US yields move higher then of course USD/JPY will be under upward pressure. However, for bond yields to move higher you need to see some credible signs of U.S. recovery. But the lack of data in the coming days suggests it's not going to happen.” We’d also like to add that yen, on its part, will be supported by the repatriation flow.

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Yield spread between 2-year US and Japanese bonds. Source: Bloomberg

NZD/USD slid from a three-month high

On Wednesday NZD/USD slid to $0.8140 levels, demonstrating a two-day decline. On Monday the pair reached a three-month high at $0.8222.

H4 chart

NZD/USD trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. Today the pair bounced back from the 50-period MA at $0.8122

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Chart. H4 NZD/USD

Daily chart

On the daily chart we see a bullish divergence. In our view, these days kiwi’s prospects are worse than Aussie’s as NZD/USD is close to a strong resistance area.

The next resistance for the pair lies at $0.8233 (April 26-27 double top), at $0.8316 (April 13 maximum) and at $0.8469 (February 29 maximum). There is also a resistance line, connecting August 2011 and February 2012 maximums. On a downside, support lies at $0.8060 (August 1 minimum, March minimums and early July highs) and at $0.7962 (100- and 200-day MAs crossing).

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

BNZ: The likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential and buoyant soft commodity prices all speak in favor of NZD/USD uptrend. However, this week we expect some consolidation in a $0.8100-0.8245 range.

GBP/USD ahead of BoE inflation report

GBP/USD is currently bouncing back towards $1.5600 psychological level after a fall to $1.5572 low just ahead of the BoE inflation report.

According to specialists at ING, the report is expected to be dovish. Both GDP and CPI forecasts are to be revised down, permitting the regulator to adopt more stimulus. However, a new policy easing is unlikely to happen before November, with last QE round introduced by the central bank only in July and the funding for lending scheme launched just recently.

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Chart. H1 GBP/USD

EUR/USD: ‘inverse head and shoulders’ (RBS)

Technical analysts at RBS claim that Friday’s 200-pip advance of EUR/USD completed an ‘inverse head and shoulders’ pattern at the daily chart. In addition, the pair broke above resistance of the downtrend line that began and had held since May 1. The outlook for euro is bullish in the short-term and the single currency may rise to $1.2540. There’s now a support at $1.2341 (neckline).

RBS recommend longs on the dips to $1.2293/1.2341 targeting $1.2445 and probably $1.2539.

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

AUD/USD: technical comments

AUD/USD slid from yesterday’s highs below $1.0550. We see that the market players are unsure: small candles formed this week indicate indecision, especially the ‘spinning top' on Monday. Such dynamics isn’t really surprising after all the way up the pair has made to the upwards so far and some cautiousness ahead of the data releases.

Medium-term (daily chart)

Aussie trades close to a 4-month high at $1.0603, tested on Tuesday, and the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

In our view, the medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient. The next resistance lies at $1.0640/70 (March 19 and 7 maximums), $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum). Support lies at $1.0540, $1.0475 and $1.0435 (August 2 minimum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline).

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

UBS: In an environment where the central banks are maintaining a trend of zero rates, demand for the Aussie is likely to increase, not to mention triple-A demand adding to the interest.

Near-term (H4)

On the H4 chart we can see a bullish MACD divergence. We concede a correction to $1.0450 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (lower boundary and the 200-day MA). Exit from the upward channel would pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

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Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2400, $1.2410, $1.2475, $1.2495;

GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5810;

USD/JPY: 78.50, 78.80, 79.00, 79.85;

USD/CHF: 0.9705;

AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0515;

EUR/GBP: 0.7800.

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GBP/JPY: time to buy, says Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are pretty sure that risk premiums are set to fall as the odds of the great disaster in Europe diminish. As a result, the specialists claim that it’s time to sell the ultimate safe haven – Japanese yen.

Nomura recommends selling yen versus British pound. “Interest rates are so low in Britain that any more quantitative easing isn’t likely to weigh on the pound.” According to the bank, this is already the second chance in 2012 for yen crosses to trade higher. GBP/JPY rose from January minimum in the 117 area to 133 in March, when investors’ risk appetite improved in Q1. The same revival of risk appetite is happening again, with stocks rallying and both the ECB and the Fed expected to unleash a wave of bond-buying to spur economic activity.

Note, however, that Nomura warns that current levels are less than perfect for entry, so don’t open large positions, but add on sterling’s declines.

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Chart. Daily GBP/JPY

August 8: forex news

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The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose 0.9%, following a 0.7% advance in the MSCI World Index yesterday. Risk sentiment, however, remains subdued: demand for high-yielding currencies is rather weak. AUD/USD slid from yesterday’s highs below $1.0550, demonstrating a 3-day decline. According to data released today, Australian home loans increased by 1.3% (forecast: 2.1%; previous: -0.9%). NZD/USD fell to $0.8130 levels after touching $0.8218 yesterday. USD/CAD slightly strengthened, though the pair trades below the parity level. GBP/USD remains under pressure ahead of BoE inflation report.

USD/JPY rose yesterday testing the upside of its current trading range around 78.65 yen as global stocks rose and the extra yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries over Japan’s government bonds widened to the most in one month. The pair, however, was contained by resistance and has edged lower today – investors don’t expect much of the BOJ meeting the results of which will be announced tomorrow.

EUR/USD has once again begun trading day below $1.24. On the H1 chart we see consolidation in the $1.2443/2365 continue.S&P revised the outlook on Greece’s CCC credit rating from stable to negative saying that the nation risks losing its estimate if it fails to obtain the next disbursement from the EU and IMF rescue package. Spanish 10-year yields closed yesterday at 6.86%, 12 bps up, while Italian ones – at 5.97%, 3 bps down.

The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke defended yesterday the central bank’s zero rate policy claiming that it’s necessary “to help the economy recover and restore more normal levels of employment and growth.” According to Bernanke, the effects of the crisis on the US “are pretty significant.”

Events to watch today:

Euro area: Watch for German data – trade balance at 06:00 GMT and, probably most important, German industrial production at 10:00 GMT. The nation will offer up to 4 billion euro in 10 year bunds at 06:00 GMT.

Britain: The Bank of England will release Inflation report (9:30 GMT) which may contain clues for the next moves of the central bank. The BoE will likely lower its current growth forecast as there were enough disappointing data since the report was last time released in May. Lower forecasts increase the likelihood of the BoE’s announcing additional asset purchases in September, though the current round of stimulus finishes only in November. The Bank is expected to predict almost zero growth for the economy in 2012, while just 3 months ago it was forecasting growth of around 0.7%.

New Zealand: The nation’s unemployment rate (22:45 GMT) may have declined from 6.7% in Q1 to 6.5% in Q2.

EUR/USD: bulls vs. bears

If the pair EUR/USD manages to break above $1.2443 (1-month high, 61.8% retracement of the decline from June 29 maximum), it will be able to rise to $1.2500. Still, it seems that the bulls are moving euro up with great struggle as there are many who wait for the opportunity to sell. If euro’s advance keeps stalling, some bullish players may decide to take profit.

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Chart. H1 EUR/USD

GBP/USD extends gains

On Tuesday GBP/USD reached $1.5670 after yesterday investors’ indecisive behavior. The pound was supported as data released today showed UK industrial production declined less-than-expected in June.

On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the up-headed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. Note the pair broke above triangle resistance today. It means GBP/USD is bullish in a near-term and is likely to strengthen at least to the upper boundary of a sideways channel. The pair trades in a $1.5450-1.5750 range existing since June after trading in a bearish channel in May.

In a medium-term, however, we expect GBP/USD to remain flat because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5735/85 area (200-day MA and 50% Fib. retracement from a May drop). A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums).

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Chart. H4 GBP/USD

USD/JPY: technical investigation

On the daily USD/JPY chart we see descending triangle pattern – the odds are that the greenback will break the horizontal resistance line at 78 yen to the downside. On the upside, the pair is still caped by 20-day MA (indigo line on the chart). The 50-day MA has recently gone below the 200-day one – bearish signal. The move A-B-C is another confirmation of the bearish view.

The IMF said this week that yen’s “moderately overvalued.” According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, Japanese currency added 3.7% in the past 3 months versus 10 developed-nation currencies. The Bank of Japan's seem to support the greenback for now, but the situation may change if the central bank doesn't deliver any easing (such outcome will be in line with forecasts). Another serious supporting factor is the risk of the BOJ intervention. Well, things are always quite complicated with USD/JPY.

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

On H4 chart the picture is better. USD/JPY keeps trading in the 78.65/00 area sloping a bit upward within this range. There’s still some scope for consolidation to continue. USD/JPY may revisit the recent maximums in the near term on the upward leg of the sideways trading.

Resistance: 78.55, 78.65, 78.77 79.00 and 79.13.

Support: 78.15, 78.07, 78.00 and 77.90

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Chart. H4 USD/JPY

NZD/USD: technical comments

On Tuesday NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8200. Yesterday the pair reached a three-month high at $0.8222.

H4 chart

NZD/USD trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. However, RSI is close to 70, indicating the kiwi is overbought. Moreover, signal line has just crossed the MACD histogram, giving a sell signal. In addition, there is a bullish divergence on the H4 chart.

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Chart. H4 NZD/USD

Daily chart

We also see a bullish divergence and RSI is close to 70. In our view, these days kiwi’s prospects are worse than Aussie’s as NZD/USD approaches a very strong resistance area.

The next resistance for the pair lies at $0.8233 (April 26-27 double top), at $0.8316 (April 13 maximum) and at $0.8469 (February 29 maximum). There is also a resistance line, connecting August 2011 and February 2012 maximums. On a downside, support lies at $0.8060 (August 1 minimum, March minimums and early July highs) and at $0.7962 (100- and 200-day MAs crossing).

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

BNZ: The likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential and buoyant soft commodity prices all speak in favor of NZD/USD uptrend. However, this week we expect some consolidation in a $0.8100-0.8245 range

The Bank of Japan will likely stay pat

The Bank of Japan starts its 2-day meeting today. The consensus is that the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintain the size of its asset-purchase program, its main policy tool, at 70 trillion yen ($895 billion) saving easing options for later.

Note that this will be the first meeting with new board members Takahide Kiuchi and Takehiro Sato – both officials have signaled willingness to consider fresh forms of easing. BBH said the 2 policymakers are “are known to be sympathetic to more unconventional easing, but like the RBA, a ‘wait and see’ stance by the BOJ is more likely now.”

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi claimed today that the nation’s government will extend its dollar credit facility aimed at helping Japanese companies invest overseas by 6 months until the end of the fiscal year in March 2013. This is one of the ways to fight with yen’s appreciation. This program started in August 2011 can deploy up to 10 trillion yen ($127.81 billion). To compare: Japanese authorities spent 8 trillion yen in the record unilateral intervention in the currency market October 31 2011. Since then Japan stayed out of the market, but resumed verbal pressure so far as yen remains strong. The possibility of Japan’s action keeps USD/JPY above 78 yen after the levels was firstly tested in June.

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Jun Azumi. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

If the Fed decides to act in September adding stimulus, the BOJ will really need to have some bazooka in store as easing in the US will weaken the greenback versus yen. The BOJ may also decide to make its next move in October as the semiannual forecasts on the economy and prices are released on October 30.

If the BOJ stays pat on Thursday, USD/JPY will keep drifting gradually lower

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Chart. Weekly USD/JPY