fallenDC

AUD/USD: technical comments

AUD/USD strengthens for a sixth consecutive day, trading close to a new four-month high at $1.5037 (July 31 maximum). The pair trades close to the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June, but scruples breaking it. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: the next strong resistance lies only at $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline). However, we concede a correction to $1.0400 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (lower boundary and the 200-day MA). Yesterday a shooting star candlestick formed on a daily chart. Exit from the upward channel will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Analysts doubt the ECB’s resolve

When the ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve euro, the market’s reactions was very positive: we saw EUR/USD rising by more than 170 pips. The week hasn’t passed since Draghi’s comments, yet many experts have become skeptical doubting that the ECB is really able and willing to do enough to help the single currency survive the crisis.

Bloomberg cites 2 unnamed central bank officials who said that Draghi’s proposal involves the EFSF buying government debt on the primary market together with ECB purchases on the secondary market, while further interest-rate cuts and long-term loans to banks are also possible.

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Image from blog.optionsclick.com

Westpac: "The ECB meeting this Thursday might not be the huge event it’s being built up to be. What we see on Thursday is potentially going be a little bit lukewarm and a disappointment to the market. The euro rescue maneuvers will not necessarily give investors a reason to buy the common currency: if one of those moves is a rate cut, then it's not obvious that you want to be buying the euro on that decision.”

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: “The euro could benefit momentarily if the ECB says it will buy bonds. But that will probably provide a good opportunity to sell the euro.”

Commerzbank: “There’s a very high risk for disappointment. In the foreign-exchange market there’s a lot of expectations priced in already.”

Even if the ECB acts on Thursday, many experts think the impact of its action will be temporary unless there is a sustainable economic recovery in southern Europe.

August 1: economy and currencies

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EUR/USD keeps trading on the upside in the range between $1.2250 and $1.2390 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracement from 2012 decline). Spanish 10-year bond yield rose to 6.7% yesterday, while Italian – above 6%.

There is some economic data released today in Europe, but not much: Spanish and Italian July PMIs and final euro zone manufacturing PMI (the revised figures will likely confirm the lowest reading since June 2009). Germany will sell up to 4 billion euro in 5-year notes at 06:00 GMT. US session is going to be more eventful with ADP at 12:15 GMT, US ISM manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT and the FOMC statement at 18:15 GMT.

Demand for the greenback is broadly limited on the expectations that the pace of hiring in the US slowed (ADP private payrolls – cons.: +121K, prev.: +176K) and the Fed will signal additional stimulus.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks declined by 0.6%, demonstrating a first drop in a week. Demand for risky assets fell after reports today indicated a manufacturing slowdown in China (Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.1 in July vs. a 50.4 forecast and a previous reading 50.2, while HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3). However, Aussie, kiwi and loonie remain strong as the influence of China’s data was offset by speculation the Fed may ease monetary policy on today’s meeting. According to analysts at Westpac, the Aussie will benefit a lot if the Fed goes ahead with QE.

USD/JPY tempered morning drop with an upward movement, while GBP/USD declines for a third consecutive day.

The BoE is likely to stay on hold

On a Thursday meeting the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rate at 0.50% and QE unchanged at 375 billion pounds despite the figures released last week showed the economy contracted by 0.7% in Q2. Most analysts expect the regulator to hold over the further policy easing at least until November when the latest 50 billion pounds QE round will have been completed. Markets wait for the BoE comments on the current economic situation: recent UK releases were negative.

UK monetary authorities have become increasingly worried by the state of the banking system, that’s why on Wednesday they launch a funding for lending scheme (FLS). The program aims to solve problems with the credit supply by offering participating banks cheap funding, but only if they use it to make loans.

According to economists at Investec Asset Management group, FLS is the beginning of a new British monetary policy. In current economic circumstances simple rate cuts or money printing aren’t reliable enough to resolve the crisis.

Specialists at RBS expect the BoE to remain on hold as the regulator will assess the impact of the lending scheme and the development of the global economic situation.

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Commerzbank: EUR/USD may rise a bit more

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that although the bulls didn’t manage to push EUR/USD above $1.2391 (23.6% Fib of the pair’s decline in 2012), there’s still a chance for more correction as long as euro remains above $1.2115.

The specialists warn, however, that on the upside the single currency’s ability for correction is limited $1.2546/1.2748 and the longer term prospects of EUR/USD for are bearish.

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

Roubini: 5 reasons why US growth will slow

Nouriel Roubini is ‘cheering us up’ with another article in which he prophesizes gloomy future fort the US. Well, one can’t write something optimistic after he’s officially dubbed “Dr. Doom”, can he?

Roubini gave 5 reasons why US economic growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013:

1. US GDP growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8% in Q1 to 1.5% in Q2, as job creation – averaging 70,000 a month – fell sharply.

2. Expectations of the “fiscal cliff” – automatic tax increases and spending cuts set for the end of this year – and the presidential elections will affect spending and growth.

3. The fiscal cliff would amount to a 4.5%-of-GDP drag on growth in 2013 if all tax cuts and transfer payments were allowed to expire and draconian spending cuts were triggered. Tax increases and spending cuts will be milder, but even if the fiscal cliff turns out to be a mere 0.5% of GDP and annual growth at the end of the year is just 1.5%, as seems likely, the fiscal drag will suffice to slow the economy to stall speed: a growth rate of barely 1%.

4. Growth in disposable income has been sustained since last year by another $1.4 trillion in tax cuts and extended transfer payments. That means US is stealing some growth from the future.

5. Negative external factors: escalating euro zone crisis, an increasingly hard landing for China, a generalized slowdown of emerging-market economies and the risk of higher oil prices in 2013 as the conflict with Iran progresses.

Roubini expects more QE from the Fed, but the economist thinks it won’t be efficient as US interest rates are already extremely low. US dollar will remain strong due to the risk aversion created by Europe and amid easing in other countries. As a result, the policies won’t help and US growth will be weaker. According to Roubini, significant equity-price correction could trigger the contraction of US economy in 2013.

The review is based on Mr. Roubini’s article for Project-Syndicate, 2012

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Source: The Australian

USD/JPY: technical & fundamental

USD/JPY has once again settled in the 78.30/00 area after on Friday it tested levels above 78.60, but didn’t manage to stay there. So, for now there’s a range trading.

Resistance: 78.30, 78.45 (July 20 minimum, 50-period MA on H4 chart), 78.80 (July 20 maximum), 79.00, 80.00.

Support: 78.00, 77.95 (July 23 minimum), 77.65 (June minimum), 77.35 (February 15 minimum, January 6 and 19 maximums).

On the fundamental front, the key factors are, of course, the Fed’s meeting and the risk of BOJ intervention. If the Fed doesn’t mention QE3, this will have a positive impact on USD/JPY. The same positive reaction of the pair will be if US non-farm payrolls are higher than consensus (+100K).

RBS: “The key factor in the JPY's recent gains appears to be unsatisfied demand for safe haven assets and the lack of viable alternatives. However it is possible the BOJ have become emboldened to defend a higher level in USD/JPY nearer 77, judging by recent rhetoric from Azumi. We continue to see a case for a much weaker JPY over the medium-term.”

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

GBP/USD: technical comments

GBP/USD declines for a second consecutive day after on Friday the pair reached a five-week high. Sterling tested the upper boundary of a sideways channel aligned with the 200-day MA, but then slipped back. On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the up-headed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. The pair has been bouncing in a flat since June after trading in a bearish channel in May.

In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5743/80 area. A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums).

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

QE3 is possible, but “in reserve for now”

When one thinks about the Fed these days, the most common question which comes to mind is “When?” – When will Bernanke and his colleagues finally announce QE3? It’s been already more than a year since QE2 finished and the talk about the next round has begun. The question is as pressing as it could be as the Federal Reserve announces its policy stance tomorrow. Experts answer: “Later, not tomorrow”.

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Rabobank: “The fact that the Committee extended its current asset purchase program, Operation Twist, at its last meeting in June would present a substantial hurdle to launching another asset purchase program (QE3 or sterilized purchases) this week. The Committee may prefer to have some ammunition left to offset the fiscal cliff, which will present itself at the start of 2013. Therefore, we would probably have to see a further deterioration in economic data or at least a prolonged episode of the weak data that we are seeing now, before the Fed makes that decision. However, the Fed does have other options that may offer some support in the meantime.”

NAB: “With little momentum in the economy, a high level of uncertainty about the future pace of growth and both unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s view of their desirable level, additional monetary easing is extremely likely. We suspect this won’t mean an announcement of additional QE following the meeting currently underway, given ‘operation twist’, which is intended to impact on the economy in a similar way to QE, extended in the previous meeting this appears too soon. A more likely intermediate step would be to extend the Fed’s forward guidance on how long the Feds Fund Rate will remain exceptionally low from late 2014 into 2015. However, the Fed Chairman has explicitly identified further QE as one of the measures they would consider if they decided to ease policy further. Therefore, additional QE is possible, although it may be kept in reserve for now.”

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Image from williambanzai7.blogspot.com

AUD/USD: technical comments

AUD/USD strengthens for a fifth consecutive day, touching a new four-month high on Tuesday. Yesterday the bulls managed to fix above $1.0500. The pair tested the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June, but then slid down. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: the next strong resistance lies only at $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline). However, we concede a correction to $1.0400 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (lower boundary and the 200-day MA). Exit from the upward channel will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

SNB’s euro holdings rose, but it reported profit

When we speak about the demand for euro, it’s necessary to remember about such a big player as the Swiss National Bank which has accumulated more than 300 billion Swiss francs ($309 billion) of foreign currencies over the last 3 years.

According to the data released today, the SNB recorded a profit 6.5 billion Swiss francs ($6.63 billion) in the first half of 2012 as the value of its foreign currency holdings increased. This reinforces the central bank’s ability to keep EUR/CHF above 1.20.

UBS: Today’s figures of the SNB’s reserve allocation have showed that SNB’s holdings of euro increased from 51% in Q1 to 60% in Q2. EUR/USD was declining and the negative pressure on the single currency was mounting, so the SNB had to buy big amounts of single currency. At the same time, “the rise in allocations in the ‘others’ category suggests the central bank had been an active buyer of currencies including AUD, SEK, DKK, SGD and KRW, as listed by the central bank. Although their purchases may not explain all of the outperformance in currencies such as SEK and AUD, it may have encouraged other market participants to join the rush for high-quality assets.”

Analysts at Citigroup claim that the SNB will have to diminish its euro holdings at some point as its current position is extremely risky. So, even if euro gets on recovery track, there will a seller – an what a seller!

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Photo from blog.mktgeist.com

Staff changes in the SNB

Fritz Zurbruegg will join the 3-person governing board of the Swiss National Bank and work together with Chairman Thomas Jordan and Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine. Zurbruegg, 52, used to be the head of the federal budget office. His work at the SNB starts on August 1. As you probably remember, Philipp Hildebrand, the former chief of the Swiss central bank resigned after a currency trading scandal in January. Zurbruegg will now be tasked, along with Mr. Jordan and Mr. Danthine, with maintaining the currency cap and managing forex reserves so as to keep the Swiss franc pegged to the euro at 1.20 euro per franc.

"He's a very good and experienced economist, who had excellent international contacts due to his many years in Washington," said Aymo Brunetti, former head of the government's economics secretariat (SECO) and now head of a research institute at the University of Berne, who worked closely with Zurbruegg during the financial crisis. "He can stand his own ground in the global arena, and from my point of view this quality is at the current time a particular asset for the central bank."

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Photo Reuters

UBS: AUD and NZD may drop

Analysts at UBS still think current strength of the Aussie and the kiwi is overdone. In their view, both currencies are pricing in the Fed monetary easing and the ECB re-entering government bond markets. If the regulators don’t act, both risky currencies will depreciate.

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Photo: MSN

JPMorgan: bullish on NZD/USD

On Tuesday NZD/USD trades close to $0.8100, staying above the upper boundary of the sideway channel the pair left on Friday. The pair traded sideways after an uptrend early June.

According to analysts at JP Morgan, NZD/USD is likely to reach $0.8240 (the highest since April 30). Specialists believe the recent kiwi’s rally suggests there is potential for the pro-risk sentiment to push the pair higher. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs).

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2380, $1.2400;

USD/JPY: 78.25, 79.00;

GBP/USD: $1.5660;

EUR/GBP: 0.7900.

AUD/USD: $1.0470.

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July 31: forex news and currencies

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Risk sentiment is rather high today ahead of the central bank meetings scheduled this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose by 0.9%.

The greenback weakened versus the majority of its counterparts on the speculation of more easing from the Fed tomorrow. At the same time, euro’s advance has also stalled below $1.2300 due to the talk that the ECB may expand its balance sheet on Thursday to stem the rise of the region’s sovereign-bond yields. Spanish 10-year yields near 11-day minimums around 6.6%, and Italian ones at 6.15%, highest for last 3 days. EUR/USD rose from yesterday’s minimums around $1.2225 consolidating in the $1.2280/60 area.

AUD/USD touched its highest level in 4 months after a report today showed the nation’s building approvals decreased by less than economists expected, while NZD/USD trades on a 3-month maximum. USD/CAD touched the lowest level in more than 10 weeks. GBP/USD remains flat ahead of the news from euro zone, ready to follow the market sentiment. USD/JPY strengthens as high risk appetite sapped demand for safe currencies.

Europe: There is a bunch of data in Europe which may have some impact on euro: German retail sales, French consumer spending and PPI, Spanish retail sales, German and Italian unemployment. The markets will be looking at the euro zone’s CPI and unemployment figures. Germany will auction 3 billion of 3-year EFSF bonds at 06:00 GMT.

Canada: GDP may add 0.2% m/m in May after stronger than expected 0.3% increase in April as retail sales in May added 0.7%, manufacturing sales rose by 0.2% and the volume of wholesale trade increased by 0.4%.

US: CB Consumer confidence is probably low and that households may be spending less than they are earning.

Macroeconomic indicators

The table below provides recent data on the main macroeconomic indicators and is an extremely valuable resource for any trader.

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Table. Main macroeconomic indicators

Barclays: forecasts for EUR, USD and GBP

Analysts at Barclays give the following forecasts for the major currencies.

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EUR: The ECB is widely expected to hold the policy rate unchanged on Thursday, so the focus will be whether it makes changes to the collateral framework and whether the bond purchase program will be re-activated. The meeting of Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish Mariano Rajoy that is scheduled on the same day as the rate decision is also very important as it could result in one or both countries requesting that the EFSF buy their debt. More easing by the ECB may support risky assets if deemed credible but will unequivocally remain negative the EUR.

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USD: The Fed will refrain from taking further policy action at the August FOMC, which is likely USD supportive, especially against low-yielding currencies. September is its most likely decision point. The outcome of US employment data on Friday will be critical for the prospect of USD. “We expect headline NFP of 100K (cf. 100K) and an unemployment rate of 8.2% (cf. 8.2%) and if correct, initial currency reaction is likely muted.” USD/JPY remains the most sensitive USD-cross to the employment report announcements.

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GBP: A series of UK PMI data this week will be important following disappointing Q2 preliminary GDP (-0.7% vs. -0.2% expected). The existence of special factors such as weather and holidays makes it difficult to interpret the GDP data, and PMIs will shed more light on the underlying strength of UK economy. BoE rate decision (Thursday) becomes another local risk event to GBP, but it is widely expected to hold the policy rate and amount of asset purchases unchanged. Overall, these pieces of data probably won’t be a catalyst for a strong directional move in the GBP, however may add to GBP volatility over the course of next week.

BNZ: bullish view on NZD/USD

On Monday NZD/USD slid from a 2.5-month high above $0.8100, heading back into the sideway channel the pair left on Friday. The pair traded sideways after an uptrend early June.

According to analysts at BNZ, Friday’s break through $0.8080 resistance was a strong bullish signal. Despite the current kiwi’s weakness, specialists forecast an increase to $0.8200. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs).

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

Balkanisation of European banking markets

German banks cut their net lending to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain by nearly a fifth (55 billion euro) to a total of 241 billion euro between January and the end of May, the lowest level since 2005.

This development reflects growing fears of the euro zone’s break-up, says Morgan Stanley. The bank’s specialists warn that such move will harm “lending, economic recovery and be a source of systemic instability”.

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Image from photosteve101 on Flickr

GBP/USD: technical comments

On Monday GBP/USD slid below $1.5700 from a five-week high after an increase on Thursday and Friday. As can be seen from the daily chart, sterling repelled from a 200-day MA, but trades close to the upper bond of the sideway channel. The pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs.

In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance in the $1.5743/80 area. A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904.

Support: $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement of a May decline); $1.5580 (50-day MA); $1.5457 (July 25 minimum)

Resistance: $1.5715 (200-week MA); $1.5742 (200-day MA); $1.5780 (50% Fib. retracement, 100-day MA and June 20 maximum); $1.5904 (61.8% Fib. retracement)

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

USD/JPY: weekly Ichimoku report

Weekly USD/JPY

Now that’s something new: the baseline (1) and the conversion lines (2) are turning upwards – a sign of improvement of the pair’s technical picture.

Have a look at the ‘hammer’ candle formed last week: the pattern resembles the figure formed at the end of January. That time a significant advance of USD/JPY has followed. It’s too early to speak about a move like that now, but it’s already clear that the pair has solid support around 78 yen, whether it’s due to the risk of the Bank of Japan’s intervention or something. There’s a support line in place from 2011 minimums going through January, February, May and July minimums. In addition, the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud around 77.30 is also a support.

At the same time, one has to understand that resistance for the pair is strong either (1, 2, Cloud’s top). Kumo (3) remains very thin – neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market. USD/JPY is under pressure from both sides.

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Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

Daily USD/JPY

Let’s have a look at the daily chart. The prices are struggling to get above sloping down Tenkan-sen (1), the most important near-term resistance. The next obstacle is represented by the horizontal Kijun-sen (2). Support seems weaker at this timeframe (look at the chart).

In the first half of July the bulls tried to push the pair through the Cloud, but USD/JPY only managed to cross the lower edge of Kumo, nothing more. Now the Cloud has become much thinner, so the bulls have more chanced to succeed. This week we will probably see the pair above 78 yen struggling to get higher. The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday is a big event which has to be taken into account: dollar’s possibility to advance will be limited ahead of the event, later it may strengthen if US central bank doesn’t deliver much of easing., though in this case investors may turn their expectations to August.

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

FX majors from top forecasters

Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on July 27.

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Source: FX Week

AUD/USD: technical comments

On Monday AUD/USD slid from a four-month high as the risk appetite worsened ahead of the euro zone’s reports on consumer confidence and unemployment. The pair rose confidently for three consecutive days and managed to test a strong resistance at $1.0475, completely offsetting the May decline. AUD/USD remains in a bullish channel since June. On the H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: if the bulls manage to fix above $1.0475, a further advance to $1.0855 will become possible. On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

Resistance: $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum)

Support: $1.0348 (50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0283 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0191 (100-day MA); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0083 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum)

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

EUR/USD: fundamental & technical

The single currency fell by 0.4% from 3-week high of $1.2390 touched on Friday to $1.2287, June 1 minimum. The majority of analysts believe that euro’s appreciation will be only temporary.

Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to save euro. But, as Sica Wealth Management’s expert said, “central bankers do not have the ability to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the euro. They only have the ability to undermine their credibility by making promises they cannot keep.”

UBS: “We certainly don't rule out further short squeezes in the next few days towards 1.25 against the greenback. But it seems too early to conclude the single currency's downtrend since March has ended.”

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities: “The euro will continue to struggle. To resolve Europe’s debt crisis, monetary policy will have to bear a lot of the burden.”

From the technical point of view, we see a bullish divergence on daily MACD – a positive signal. At the same time, Fridays candle resembles a spinning top which is a sign of indecision.

Resistance: $1.2330/40 (recent session/Thursday’s maximums), $1.2390/1.2407 (June 28 lows/Friday’s highs).

Support: $1.2260 (July 6 minimum), $1.2241 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2220, $1.2165, $1.2040 (2-year minimum).

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD