fallenDC

AUD/USD: technical comments

It seems that the last week’s advance came to an end: AUD/USD declines on Monday for a second consecutive day, trading close to the $1.0300 level amid concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets. The Aussie opened the week with a gap down, but still remains in an upward channel and above a 200-day MA.

The pair was supported early Monday by a higher-than-expected PPI release, which came out at 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected (q/q) and 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected (y/y).

Resistance: $1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); $1.0400 (psychological); $1.0443 (July 19 minimum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0469 (April maximum); $1.0500 (psychological); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum)

Support: $1.0279 (200-day MA); $1.0280 (July 18 minimum); $1.0240 (July 10 maximum); $1.0201 (100-day MA); $1.0099 (July 12 minimum).

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

July 23: economic & forex news

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The markets are in the risk-off mode amid the concerns that the European debt crisis is escalating. Asian shares are down. The greenback and Japanese yen have strengthened vs. the majority of their counterparts as the possibility of Greece’s leaving the euro area is getting higher and higher.

EUR/USD opened the week with almost 40-pip gap down touching fresh 2-year minimum at $1.2106. EUR/JPY hit 11-month minimum at 94.60 yen.

The sole data release today in Europe is the euro zone’s consumer confidence published at 14:00 GMT. According to the forecasts, the index will remain close to 3-month low. As for the debt auctions, Germany will offer short-term debt 06:00 GMT and France – at 10:50 GMT. Investors are more worried about tomorrow as Spain will auction 3- and 6-month bills. Spanish 10-year yields stay at the record maximums, above the critical level of 7%.

Note that demand for US dollar as everyone awaits US Q2 GDP figures on Friday. Economists expect American economy to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. Weak data will increase the odds of QE3, dollar-negative factor. Taking into account such prospects, yen may by the best performer in the coming months.

Elsewhere, Australian PPI rose by 0.5% in Q2 (vs. +0.3% expected). Japanese monetary authorities do their usual comments about their readiness to act with easing, but nothing more.

Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September

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Der Spiegel reports citing unnamed senior EU sources in Brussels that the IMF wants to stop providing financial aid to Greece as soon as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) starts functioning in September.

According to Der Spiegel, Greece could become bankrupt as early as in autumn. It’s clear that Greek government won’t be able to bring down its debt load to about 120% of GDP by 2020. The Troika estimates show that that giving Greece more time to achieve its goals would cost additional 10-50 billion euro. However, many European economies are reluctant to pay for their troubled neighbor. In addition, countries like the Netherlands and Finland were providing as the IMF was involved.

The Troika officials will soon go to Athens to see whether Greece is doing enough to comply with the terms of its second international bailout and merit receiving the next tranche of funds. Last week Greek politicians were unable to reach agreement pushed back talks on cutting budget by almost 12 billion euros ($14.6 billion). The ECB adds pressure: on Friday the central bank said that it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral in return for funding, at least until the positive report of the Troika. On Saturday German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle ruled out the possibility of relaxing the conditions of Athens’ second bailout.

It seems that the EU and the IMF are finally ready to pull the plug on Greece. Euro zone’s nations think that the currency union would survive Greece’s exit. The ESM is meant to stop contagion in this case. German constitutional court delivers its verdict on the mechanism on September 12.

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Grece. The impending doom.

Photo from minority-opinion.com

Events to watch on July 23-27

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Are you prepared for the next week’s trade?

Monday, July 23

Australia: PPI is likely to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q2 after a 0.3% drop in Q1 - still this a very small gain. The release is especially important ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday.

Euro area: Consumer confidence. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict that an index of household sentiment in the euro region was probably unchanged this month from June at minus 19.8, remaining close to 3-year minimum.

Tuesday, July 24

China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. In June the index came at 48.2, its lowest reading in 7 months.

Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month.

Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop.

Wednesday, July 25

Australia: Consumer prices probably grew 1.3% in Q2 y/y, what would match the slowest annual pace since June 1999.

Germany: Ifo Business Climate might paint a brighter picture of current business conditions, but it is likely to show that companies are losing confidence in the future.

UK: - Preliminary GDP (Q2). The figures are expected to confirm the fears that the UK is still in recession: British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010, and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak.

- CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The index improved in June coming better than expected. If this data are confirmed, hopes will rise that the UK will recover in Q3.

US: New home sales will likely continue to improve, though from a very low base.

New Zealand: The RBNZ meeting. Currency markets will be waiting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision. According to Credit Suisse data, traders appear to be anticipating a 95% chance of no change to the current benchmark lending rate. Annual inflation is holding at the lower end of the RBNZ's annual target band of 1-3%, increasing the chances that the bank will keep the cash rate at a record low 2.50 % level until summer 2013. The rate was last lowered in March 2011.

Thursday, July 26

Euro area: Private loans. The ECB data may show that bank lending to the private sector is stagnating. The European crisis is reducing banks’ ability to lend and companies’ willingness to borrow.

US: Durable goods orders may have increased 0.4 percent in June, less than the 1.3 percent gain in May. Pending Home Sales.

Friday, July 27

US: Advance GDP (Q2). Though US economy is doing better that the euro zone’ or the UK ones, economists expect it to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. In Q1 American economy increased by 1.9%.

EUR: rising concerns about Spain

Euro dropped versus its peers on the rumors that Valencia, Spain’s region, will ask for central government help to refinance its debt. Spanish 10-year yields climbed above 7%. The markets are extremely concerned about the situation in Spain, even though the euro zone’s finance ministers are expected to approve the bailout for the nation’s banks.

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Illustration by Topos Graphics

EUR/USD tested the levels below $1.2200 and got some support around $1.2185. EUR/JPY hit 7-week minimum. EUR/GBP fell to the minimal level since October 2008.

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Chart. H1 EUR/USD

RBC: trading GBP/AUD

Analysts at RBC claim that the pair GBP/AUD may decline to 4-month minimum if it closes below 1.5070 (early July minimum). The downside target lies at 1.4905 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its advance from February minimum to May maximum).

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Chart. Daily GBP/AUD

GBP/USD: technical & fundamental

On Friday GBP/USD dropped below the $1.5670 area as the yield on Span’s 10-year bonds reached their highest level since the June 18 (7.158%). Moreover, public sector net borrowing in UK reached £12.08 billion in June, exceeding expectations at £11.0 billion, although lower than the previous £15.58 billion.

The pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. Analysts at RBS claim that GBP/USD may be rangebound in the medium term. The specialists propose small shorts with a stop at $1.5800.

Support: $1.5660 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a May decline), $1.5600 (psychological), $1.5400 (July minimums)

Resistance: $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5750 (200-day MA), $1.5777 (June 20 maximum), $1.5800 (psychological)

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Nomura, RBC: JPY tends to strengthen in August

Analysts at Nomura point out that Japanese yen tends to strengthen against major currencies in August. It usually happens for a number of reasons: Japanese investors get repayments for their US Treasury holdings and transfer this money to their national currency (August has the second highest concentration of coupon payments after February); Japanese corporations repatriate half year profits.

Analysts at RBC add that this phenomenon may be explained by Japan’s huge stock of overseas assets. Moreover, the effects of repatriation in August are more visible as forex turnover that month is the second lowest of the year after December, data from CLS Bank show.

As a result, the specialists are bearish on USD/JPY. Note that there are about 90 pips between the current price level and June minimums and about 250 pips to 2012 minimum. Will the Bank of Japan have enough power and willingness to overcome the seasonal yen’s appreciation?

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Charts. Yen's appreciation in August 2010 and 2011

NZD/USD: short-term outlook

NZD/USD has initially declined on Friday after a three-day growth as the risk sentiment worsened today ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. However, the pair has slightly pared its losses after the Finnish parliament has backed the rescue for Spanish banks in a vote held in the morning. NZD/USD trades above the 100- and 200-day MAs.

On Thursday NZD/USD overcame a strong resistance at $0.8000 (now support) and now consolidates in a $0.8000/53 range. From a technical point of view, therefore, it seems the pair is set to continue a bullish movement to $0.8075 after a short-term correction. However, further dynamics of the pair will highly depend on the news coming from the euro area and from the Fed’s and China’s monetary easing steps.

Resistance: $0.8053 (July 19 maximum); $0.8075 (July 5 maximum); $0.8231/33 (April 27 and 30 maximums)

Support: $0.8000 (psychological); $0.7991 (July 19 minimum); $0.7970/60 (100- and 200-day MAs); $0.7862 (July 13 minimum)

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

EUR/USD: negative bias persists

The single currency is declining versus the greenback. Euro got hurt due to weak demand at a Spanish bond auction on Thursday which pushed 10-year yields back above the critical 7% level. Eurogroup is expected to approve Spanish banking bailout later today. However, the news may do nothing to improve the outlook for euro: the markets fear that even if Spanish banks get help, the nation won’t be able to keep financing itself on its own.

In addition, as the ECB has so far cut the deposit rate, investors will likely leave the euro area searching for higher yields. Euro is now being viewed as a funding currency. While other currencies may gain versus the greenback on the talk of potential QE3 in the US, EUR will likely remain under pressure of the region’s debt crisis.

BNY Mellon: EUR/USD will test $1.2150 next week.

Commerzbank: A break below last week’s minimum of $1.2162 will bring EUR/USD down to $1.1934 (the symmetrical triangle downside target) and $1.2053 (200-month MA) and $1.1876 (2010 minimum).

Support: $1.2246 (today’s lows), $1.2230 (yesterday’s minimums), $1.2190 (Tuesday’s minimum), $1.2163 (July 13 low).

Resistance: $1.2285 (today’s maximum), $1.2317/24(Tuesday’s/yesterday’s maximum), $1.2335 (July 10 maximum).

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Chart. H1 EUR/USD

AUD/USD: technical and fundamental

AUD/USD declines on Friday, trading close to the $1.0400 level as the risk appetite shrinks ahead of the Euro group meeting. The Aussie hasn’t managed to overcome a strong resistance at $1.0469 (April maximum) yet despite a five-day bullish movement, but still remains close to an 11-week high and above a 200-day MA. Analysts at Westpac forecast the Aussie to be pushed up by the hopes of further global central bank action. All in all, this week was positive for AUD/USD: on Monday the pair traded at $1.0200.

Markets expect the Australian CPI release on July 25 to show the slowest annual growth pace since June 1999. According to Bloomberg survey, Australian inflation probably grew by 1.3% in Q2 y/y. However, today some positive data were released: the Australian import prices unexpectedly increased by 2.4% in Q2.

Resistance: 1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); 1.0469 (April maximum); 1.0500 (psychological); 1.0557 (March 27 maximum)

Support: 1.0400 (psychological); 1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); 1.0279 (200-day MA)

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Eurogroup will discuss Spain at 10:00 GMT

Eurogroup’s conference starts today at 10:00 GMT. Euro zone finance ministers are expected to approve an agreement to lend up to 100 billion euro to Spain for the recapitalization of the nation’s banks.

The region’s finance chiefs are to sign memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Spain stating the terms of the aid. The exact size of the loan will probably be determined later this year: firstly, Spanish banks have to pass stress tests (results are due in September), so that it will become clear how much money they really need. Restructuring plans are to be drawn up in October, as set out in the timeline annexed to the MoU, says euro zone official cited by Reuters.

Spain expects 30 billion euro in a first tranche of bailout that will be available immediately for state-rescued banks that urgently need funds. The first injection of capital into banks not already rescued by the state and unable to raise capital by themselves can be expected by October, after reviews by the Spanish government and the European Commission.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2225, $1.2250, $1.2260, $1.2300 (large), $1.2325, $1.2375, $1.2385;

USD/JPY: 78.70, 79.30;

AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0295, $1.0300, $1.0347;

GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5650;

AUD/JPY: 82.00.

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July 20: economic & forex news

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This week all the high-yielding assets were benefitting from the prospects of a new quantitative easing in the US and China. The risk-on mood was also supported by the raw materials prices growth and a lack of news from Europe. As a result, US dollar was generally losing to its counterparts.

Today, however, the greenback edged higher as the market players were taking profit of the weekend. In addition, investors are preparing for some gloomy data in Europe next week and weaker Australian CPI which may show the slowest annual growth pace since June 1999.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares lost 0.6% today, trimming a weekly gain to 1.4%. In Asia forex trading was quiet. Demand for AUD and NZD vs. the greenback is limited on Friday. USD/CAD has reached a 2-month low, additionally supported by a speculation the Bank of Canada will be the first regulator to raise interest rates. Watch for Canadian CPI data released today at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD is trading on the downside. German PPI contracted by 0.4% in June (vs. -0.2% m/m expected). All attention on the market will be focused on the Eurogroup meetings. Euro zone officials are to outline the first tranche of Spain’s banks bailout. Spanish 10-year yields stayed yesterday close to the critical level of 7%.

Events to watch today:

Euro area: Eurogroup meetings

Great Britain: public sector net borrowing (consensus: 11.8B; previous: 15.6B)

Canada: CPI (consensus: -0.2%; previous: -0.1%); core CPI (consensus: -0.1%; previous: 0.2%)

US Jobless claims diappoint

US unemployment claims increased by 386K last week, beating a 367K consensus forecast and an unexpectedly low previous increase by 350K. Today’s data raise investor’s doubts on the US labor market rebound.

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Photo: Reuters

USD/CHF: trading advice from MIG bank

It’s been a while since we’ve wrote something about USD/CHF. The pair is moving gently up within rising daily trend. On H1 chart we see a falling wedge formation – an argument for the bullish view on the pair. The pair may rise to 1.0150 and higher. At the same time, there’s still room for correction to 0.9700. Analysts at MIG Bank recommend setting a buy limit at this point targeting 0.9850/1.0150/1.0400 and stopping below 0.9550.

Support: 0.9750, 0.9715, and 0.9700.

Resistance: 0.9780, 0.9800 and 0.9870.

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Chart. H4 USD/CHF

AUD/USD: technical & fundamental

AUD/USD keeps strengthening for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday on the back of the improved risk sentiment and despite the drop of the NAB business confidence in Q2. The pair trades on a 11-week high and above a 200-day MA. On a daily chart we see three strong bullish candles; however, the Aussie’s growth is limited on the upside by a strong resistance at $1.0469 (April maximum).

The Australian currency was supported today by the German Bundesbank’s decision to begin adding Australian dollar assets such as government bonds to its foreign reserve holdings before the end of September. It is interesting to note that the demand for the Australian assets has increased over the last year, supporting the currency despite ongoing turmoil in the world economy, lower interest rates and a slide in commodity prices.

Resistance: 1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); 1.0469 (April maximum); 1.0500 (psychological); 1.0557 (March 27 maximum)

Support: 1.0400 (psychological); 1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); 1.0278 (200-day MA)

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

USD/JPY: US data in focus

USD/JPY hit 6-week minimum at 78.47 during today’s Asian session testing levels below support at 78.60. US currency weakened after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the central bank may ease policy unless the labor market shows gains.

RBS: The market isn’t quite factoring in the QE3, but many see the trend of global central banks providing liquidity unlikely to change. Yen strengthened despite rising risk assets as the Bank of Japan is seen as less dovish than other major central banks.

All eyes are no on US data due at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT: weekly jobless claims, existing home sales for June and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for July.

RBS: Strong US data will likely prompt dollar-buying, while weak data could increase expectations for a third round of quantitative easing, leaving the trend intact of buying risk assets with the euro and the dollar as global funding currencies.

Resistance: 79.00 (previous support), 79.40 (July 13 maximum, July 3 minimum), 79.60 (July 10 maximum), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.62 (June minimum), 81.78 (mid-April maximum) and 84.19 (March maximum).

Support: 78.60 (June 15 minimum) and 78.00 (the level of potential BOJ intervention).

One may try setting small longs on bullish candles (for example, hammer).

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

NZD/USD: up or down?

NZD/USD strengthens for a third consecutive day on Thursday, enjoying the increased demand for the high-yielding assets. The pair trades above the 100- and 200-day MAs. Specialists at HSBC expect NZD/USD to edge higher, driven mostly by growing demand for the Aussie. In their view, the pair is likely to reach $0.8040-0.8060 in a short-term.

Analysts at JPMorgan disagree: according to them, NZD/USD is forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on a daily chart. A drop of the kiwi below the $0.7840/70 support area may confirm a deeper corrective phase after an uptrend in June, causing the pair to weaken further. A decline to $0.7640 would become likely.

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

EUR/NZD: a downtrend may continue

EUR/NZD has been trading sideways in a NZ$1.5507-1.5324 range for most of July as the euro’s bearish movement slowed down. The pair remains in a downward channel since May. As can be seen from a daily chart, the 55-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are heading down. EUR/NZD, therefore, is just waiting for new signals from the euro area to continue a decline.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe concerns the euro bloc’s debt crisis is worsening could push the pair to NZ$1.51, beating the NZ$1.5324 record it reached on July 16.

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Chart. Daily EUR/NZD

Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2175, $1.2190, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2335, $1.2350, $1.2400;

USD/JPY: 80.00;

AUD/USD: $1.0195, $1.0300;

GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5700;

EUR/GBP: 0.8065.

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EUR/USD: short-term outlook

The single currency got hurt as fears about the euro zone’s future flared up again yesterday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that a solution to the bloc’s problems was not yet in sight. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT).

In Europe the market’s attention will focus on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Spain will try to sell 3 billion euro of 5, 7 and 10-year bonds, while France would sell 8 billion euro in shorter-term debt. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds was at 6.93% on Wednesday, close to the critical 7% level which is regarded as unsustainable in the long term.

EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. The odds are that the single currency will once more try to retest this level, but then fail around $1.2320.

Analysts at Commerzbank repeat what they have said earlier this week: EUR/USD won’t be able to overcome resistance at $1.2365/1.2425 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of July decline) and will slide to $1.1934 (the symmetrical triangle downside target) and $1.2053 (200-month MA) and $1.1876 (2010 minimum).

Support: $1.2275 (intraday support), $.2260 (July 6 minimum/July 13 maximum), $1.2235 (July 10 minimum).

Resistance: $1.2297 (today’s maximum), $1.2306 (yesterday’s maximum), $1.2317 (Tuesday’s maximum).

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Chart. H1 EUR/USD

July 19: economic & forex news

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The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares added 1.5% yesterday. JPY rose against all but one of its 16 major peers amid concern no progress will be reached on the euro zone’s crisis, what will increase demand for a safe Japanese currency. USD weakens against the high-yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD. Mild weakness in the U.S. has been positive for risky currencies as the stimulus becomes more and more likely. Demand for risky assets was also supported as volatility for major currencies slid to the lowest since November 2007.

GBP/USD strengthens on Thursday. Yesterday the pound dropped after the minutes of the BoE meeting this month showed the decision to keep its interest rate at a record low 0.5% was unanimous, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further 50 billion pounds.

Although US dollar is broadly weakening, the single currency is even weaker. EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT). Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. The sole euro-related data release is the publication of the region’s current account (08:00 GMT). The market’s attention will focus, though, on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Euro is trading at record minimums vs. Aussie and kiwi and at more than 20-year minimums against loonie.

In the US, as usual on Thursdays, watch for the jobless claims figures (12:30 GMT). In addition, there are 2 more important releases: existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index (14:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday that it was "certainly possible" that the central bank could take new steps to support the economic recovery if the situation at the labor market doesn’t improve.

GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes

The bulls were pushing GBP/USD up for three consecutive days and the sterling nearly managed to overcome the resistance of the downward trend, existing since June. However, the pair returned to the channel today on the back of the important UK data releases and now trades close to the strong $1.5600 level.

The BoE meeting minutes held on July 4-5 revealed the MPC voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5%, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further £50 billion. According to analysts at ING, the increased support for additional QE means that it will possibly be expanded to £450 billion by the end of 2012. A new QE round is expected to weigh on the British currency. The unemployment rate in Britain unexpectedly declined to 8.1%.

Commerzbank specialists expect GBP/USD’s growth to be limited on the upside by 55- and 200-day MA’s ($1.5685 and $1.5751). They forecast the pair to decline towards the $1.5407/1.5393 support area (June 8 and July 12 minimum). The next support lies at $1.5270/35 (2012 minimums).

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

USD/CAD: bullish views of the banks

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the greenback may bounce up versus its Canadian counterpart after the retracement to 1.0123/1.0085 (50% Fib of April-to-June rise, the 200-day MA) is over. The specialists think that USD/CAD’s advance may resume after correction in June and July. In the medium term the bullish outlook will be confirmed when the pair rises above 1.0362 (June maximum). In this case the longer-term targets will be 1.0523 (November maximum) and 1.0575 (200-week MA).

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Chart. Daily USD/CAD

Analysts at MIG Bank point out that USD/CAD is holding above the key support of 1.0100 (close to 200-day MA) and even if US dollar dips below this level, it will be only a short-term move. In this case the bank recommends buying USD at 1.0050. According to MIG, the medium term outlook for the pair will change from bullish to neutral only if it slides below 0.9800.