Jump to content

Jay007

Members
  • Posts

    206
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Posts posted by Jay007

  1. Hi..I would recommend you the following

    For intra day style of trading..put two MA's one with 1 and other with 3, typical price i.e. high+low+close/3 on the daily chart, if past one day pivot is low from 3 day pivot, its down trend and vice versa..the method was described in john person's book and i find it very useful for intraday

    Thanks,

    Jay

    Hi

     

    I know it depends on trading style, timeframe etc, but what is your best method of determining trend, and on what timeframe...

     

    i.e. on the hourly timeframe, it is "generally accepted" that being above the MA21 with it sloping up is a good indicator of an uptrend...

     

    but how do you determine it?

  2. Here you go

     

    :)

     

    Thanks buttons is down))))

    Hello friends,

     

    I am in desperate need of the ebook "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics" by Ramazan Gencay, Faruk Selcuk Brandon Whitcher.

     

    If anyone has it, kindly share the link here plz, would be of great help to me.

     

    Thanks a lot........

  3. He has a mercedes...but still cant have a proper website..using free blogspot..))

    Has anyone heard of this guy or tried this system. Doesn't seem to have a name except for Forextraders7 or King Scalp. He does answer Emails. He is talking about 80% a month and documents it along with pictures of his Mercedes and gold bullion. Check it out here. hxxp://f0rextraders7.blogspot.c0m
  4. Duke,

    what about calculating the trend run or reversal setups at the end of the week, rather than following a static approach all the time, might it have some influence on the risk reward and equity curve, what i want to make of note is that, market are ever changing, analogical to humans))

    If i come up with something measurable, will let you know, as for now, i am really liking the idea of one trade per week,thanks

    I am glad it is working out for you, Jay. Although I am probably not likely using Martingale type strategy in my own live trade, but I can see the way you describe to work especially in intra-day trade with something like a London close type of entry: For example, wait for price to move beyond its average daily range after all major news near London close, and trade a bounce back from a support/resistance level. If first attempt fail, barring unexpected news event, then it is still likely for price to return back in your direction after finding another level of support/resistance. Then if you add on another trade at the next support/resistance further out in the original direction of the first trade, you have averaged up/down the break-even price of your entire position.

     

    For the system in this current thread, I have two pairs which I want to return to weekly open, and two pairs which I want to run away from the open. So, for the two currency pairs (now just 1 as I just dropped EurChf) which we trade its reversal after moving away from the week's open, looking at the weekly price dynamic, perhaps you can use average weekly range, instead of daily range. But I have not tested this out.

     

    And of course, for my two Jpy pairs (EJ, GJ), I do NOT want them to come back to weekly open price, I want them to run away from the open, at least far enough to book my profit.

  5. Thanks for your time and explanation, I do use martingale but i dont close my loosing order, and not has you explained it, i just keep adding to the same position with a fixed no. of pips(its only when i am sure that the price will return back or if its just testing a different support/resistance level), if not sure, i just happy to put stop loss n lose the amount of pips, usually this works well when price has already moved its usual average daily range, and i can pick up the top or the bottom, counter trend trading for a small profit.

    Hi Jay, you're welcome.

     

    In general, I do NOT recommend using martingale. At least not the full doubling after every loss approach.

     

    For any loss recovery chasing-type method to work, obviously, we have to assume UsdCad in 2012 will behave similarly to 2011, which has very short losing streak (max in 2011 was 3 consecutive losses).

     

    So I would probably do something like this (I use 1.3 as the increase factor below, but you can use anywhere from 1.1 to 1.5, I would not go much higher than that):

     

    Trade 1 = 1 lot size

    If Trade 1 was a loss, then Trade 2 = 1.3 lot size

    If Trade 2 was also a loss, then Trade 3 = 1.3 x 1.3 = 1.7 lot size

    If Trade 3 was also a loss, then Trade 4 = 1.69 x 1.3 = 2.2 lot size

    If Trade 4 was also a loss, then Trade 5 = 2.2 x 1.3 = 2.9 lot size

    etc.

     

    Then the above sequence goes in reverse when I have a winning week. For example, if I had a win in Trade 5 = 2.9 lot, then Trade 6 will be the previous size smaller than Trade 5 of 2.9 lots, which is 2.2 lots. And I will continue until either I am happy, or until it returns back to 1 lot size.

     

    But you must set a top limit of how many consecutive losses you are willing to accept and then stop chasing. For example, since last year's max was 3 consecutive losses, perhaps you will set 4 consecutive losses as the top max. Otherwise, the losses can mount up very large very quickly. For example, in the case of 5 consequent losses, flat lot size will only be a loss of total 5 lots. But at chasing with 1.3 increase each week, the same 5 weeks losing streak would result in over 9 lots total loss. (If chasing at full martingale doubling after each loss, these 5 weeks of losses would total 31 lots!!)

     

    Personally, in my live trade so far, I have not applied lot size increase to chase after loss, even on UsdCad. I guess I am always worried that Murphy's Law would knock on my door. Although UsdCad in 2011 had very short losing streaks of no longer than 3 consecutive losses, there is no guarantee that it cannot start a long losing streak sometimes in the future.

     

    For me, as long as the method is still profitable with flat lot size (I will increase lot size only after equity has increased to a certain ratio), I am willing to take slower equity gain in return for sleeping better at night, without worrying about possible martingale wipe-out.

     

    But everyone has different risk-tolerance. What works for me may not suit others.

  6. Hi, duke,

    thanks for a brilliant effort.

    Could you please elaborate your method/way of using martingale with USDCAD, how would you try to recover the loss, and yes am not in the choir))

    thanks once again

    USDCAD specific notes:

    (1) Although not the strongest performer, but it is the most consistent performer.

    (2) So far the longest single losing streak has been 3 weeks, and longest winning streak (ignoring no-trade weeks) has been 4 weeks.

    (3) Although I do not suggest using Martingale, But this is the only one in the four currency basket I may consider using such potential high risk loss recovery.

    (4) At least from the past 13 months data, it can be traded throughout the year, even on summer or winter holiday months.

     

    EURCHF specific notes:

    (1) Up until early September 2011, this pair was in fact the most profitable "Run-away" trade currency of 2011.

    (2) But after Swiss bank authority announced they were "fixing" CHF to EUR in early September , EURCHF is now changed to "Reversion" type trades.

    (3) Will need to monitor this pair closer than the other pairs: if Swiss authority once again let CHF trades freely, then we may need to abandon this pair as a "Reversion" type trade.

    (4) Because of this pair's short time period since Swiss bank authority's intervention, there is not enough data to say how profitable this will be in the long run.

     

    GBPJPY and EURJPY specific notes:

    (1) Both pairs are far stronger performers than USDCAD.

    (2) But both pairs are also less consistent, with likely longer streak of winners and losers, with longest losing streak at 5 weeks, and longest winning streak at 8 weeks.

    (3) Both pairs suffered worst losing streak during the summer months.

    (4) I would recommend either not trade these two pairs during the summer, or to reduce lot size during those months.

  7. If I understand correctly, the possible algorithm of this EA is as follows, if price moves in a particular direction with given amount of pips in given amount of time, buy or sell, such types of EA are available free and in theory it looks good but in practice with re-quotes, slow server, slippage and internet connection also small Take Profit makes it difficult for retail trader to gain anything from this idea, I DONT want to disappoint you guys but be careful, if I AM CORRECT.

     

    Guys, you can check Forex Growth Bot, which also works with same,i hope, algorithm, it uses different settings for volatility calculations

  8. I dont have the indicator, but I can tell you what is the indicator about. As per my knowledge it is a simple candle stick pattern recognizer and the rule is to sell or buy on the break of the bullish or bearish candle stick pattern, the white candle is nothing but some sort candle stick pattern which forms at bollinger bands, it just my opinion.

     

    anyone has this indicator? please share. many thanks. http://www.iforex-indicators.c0m/best-scalp-indicator-mt4.html

    http://www.iforex-indicators.com/best-scalp-indicator-mt4.html

  9. I did a test on Alpari NZ, it was working, did you copy the dll file to the experts/library folder?

     

    http://i41.tinypic.com/1zqbtw2.jpg

    It doesnt work on GCI or NordFx demo...error is like this:

     

    2012.03.27 20:25:51 2011.12.01 03:00 PhiBase_PRO_V1.23_edu EURUSD,H1: License Validation : Connecting to PhiBase.....

    2012.03.27 20:25:51 2011.12.01 03:00 PhiBase_PRO_V1.23_edu EURUSD,H1: dll calls are not allowed; 'phibase.dll'-'pricem'

    2012.03.27 20:25:51 2011.12.01 03:00 PhiBase_PRO_V1.23_edu EURUSD,H1: expert stopped

     

     

    And i have allowed dll calls. So either the education is not proper or some other problem. Can you check pls.

×
×
  • Create New...