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dukeaugustus

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Posts posted by dukeaugustus

  1. A Final Update and Summary of the year-long test

     

    As 2012 is drawing to a close, for the sake of completeness, I have updated the results post (post #4)

     

    This will probably my last post on this thread. But here are some of my concluding thoughts and observations about this one year project:

     

    (1) Only two of the four currency pairs I started this project with, have survived the test of this one-year test. Only EJ and GJ have remained profitable. The original UsdCad and EurChf have decreased their weekly range so much that they are practically not worth trading this method on. I dropped EurChf back in March. And UsdCad have so few trades that I have not traded this since middle of the year.

     

    (2) Moving forward, and without changing the original rules, I may only consider GJ and EJ as worthwhile.

     

    Here are some of their statistics so far:

     

    GbpJpy

    2011 Total pips = 1525

    2012 Total pips = 1198

     

    EurJpy

    2011 Total pips = 0835

    2012 Total pips = 1475

     

    Combined GbpJpy + EurJpy

    2011 = 2,360 pips

    2012 = 2,673 pips

     

    Other statistics:

    two years GbpJpy win percentage: 65%

    two years EurJpy win percentage: 66%

     

    Longest GbpJpy losing streak: 8 weeks

    Longest EurJpy losing streak: 7 weeks

    Longest combined losing streak: 3 weeks

     

    Longest GbpJpy winning streak: 5 weeks

    Longest EurJpy winning streak: 3 weeks

    Longest combined winning streak: 6 weeks

     

    Biggest combined drawdown from prior maximum pips gained: -540 pips

     

    (3) Although individually they seem to have fluctuated in pips gain over two years, but combined, their total annual gain are very consistent from one year to the next: 2360 versus 2673, almost the same. Also it pays to trade both pairs together, as it cut down losing streak, increase winning streak, and smooth out the equity curve.

     

    (4) Another note is that, although I cautioned about not trading in summer from June to August, due to 2011 results showing bad losing streak around that time. However, looking at 2012, it is actually more profitable if I had traded through all the months, including summer months. So only time will tell if summer should be followed on this method.

     

    (5) As stated in my first post, this was never meant to be anyone's main income earner. But it can still be used in the background as a small sideline and long term earner, especially the time and energy required to manage this is so small. If I am willing to ignore week to week, or even month to month performance, and only take a longer time view, I will probably continue to trade the two yen pairs next year.

     

    (6) Final word of caution is that, noticing the possible drawdown, with maximum drawdown of 540 pips over a two years period, money management will be always important. Make sure the account can survive such a drawdown (or possibly even more).

     

    Although I will most likely trade this in the background, but this is probably my last post on this thread, and therefore the end of this thread. My focus and attention are now elsewhere.

     

    Thanks for everyone who had helped or encouraged over this last year

     

    Wish everyone a happy holiday season.

  2. I am looking for an indicator or EA , which helps to take trade on one click,

    as i trade EURUSD

    USDCHF

    EURJPY

    so i want to take trades fast , when i press F9 or go for new trade , the ox open and than click buy than ok than close etc etc takes lot of time, till than my rates in the other trades goes away.

     

    Is there any indicator ro EA that helps in Mt4 that can take trades on one click and close so i can be little faster in taking trades ...

     

    Thanks

    [-O<[-O<

     

    Until someone can share such ea, here is a "dumb" way that I used in the past that may (or may not) help:

     

    I have a separate MT4 installed for each currency pair I want to trade. In your case, you can open three of them, one each for EURUSD, USDCHF, and EURJPY. If you have sufficient screen space, size the MT4 side by side opened on the same screen. And you can also have the order window already opened on each of these. Just make sure the buy or sell button you need is shown on your screen for all three pairs at the same time.

     

    Now when the time to trade comes for all three currency pairs, you still need to click three times, one each for each currency.

     

    Not very elegant, but still fast, most of the required work and time for opening the chart and opening the order windows were already done BEFORE the trades come.

     

    AFTER you have entered all the trades, then you can take your time to come back and click ok to close the order windows, and to place stop or target, etc.

     

    It worked for me, not sure if it will work for you, just sharing an idea.

     

    Nowadays, I use a broker that has a java trading platform, and has 1-click trading capability already built-in.

  3. Thanks dk1aussie for the share.

     

    I haven't really looked at this in detail. But is the author talking about targeting 1 pip profit, with a stop loss of 5 pips?

     

    Since most currency pairs has a spread of 1 or more pips, then he in fact is targeting 2 or more pips profit just to make 1 pip profit. And a single loss of 5 pips will require at least 5 winning trades just to break-even.

     

    Although I can see possible high win rate. But the very poor reward-to-risk ratio is raising a very big red flag in my mind about its long term profit potential.

     

    I would be interested in hearing feedback from anyone actually testing/trading this.

  4. Hi hankt, sorry to see that STAR is not working for you and that you are leaving it behind.

     

    However, I hope you would reconsider, or at least do not burn the bridge behind you so quickly.

     

    Because my experience is very different from yours.

     

    About the 40% win rate you mentioned, it seems you did not include the trades still on the the active triggered trades page. Most of the winning trades are not moved from that page to the completed trades page for a long time.

     

    As losing trades are quickly closed and moved to the closed trades page, but winning trades are left running and stay on the active trades page, if you count only the trades in the closed trades page, you will skew the results to only seeing mostly losing trades.

     

    For myself, due to my own schedule, and preference, I can only trade the longer time-frame setups, and do not trade all the setups, so cannot comment on the actual total win/loss ratio of the entire watch-list. But for the trades that I have taken, my results have definitely been profitable.

     

    And yes, I am talking about live account, not demo.

     

    I hope the STAR community or Tom would not hate me to list at least just one active trade to illustrate a point:

     

    There was a long term buy trade triggered on 28/08/12 for Eur/Sek, entry at 8.21802, stop loss at 8.17197, first take profit at 8.34807.

     

    The reward to risk on this trade is therefore 1300pips/460pips = 2.82

     

    More importantly, look at the rest of this Eur/Sek trade history after hitting first profit target: before a significant pullback in mid September, the price kept moving up, to a max at one time (on 17/09/12) 8.64326 (meaning max of 4252 pips profit), which translates to max potential reward/risk ratio of 9.23.

     

    If anyone decided to ride out that pullback, the price then moved back up again, currently at about 8.67108. So today, any still-opened trade portion would already have a profit factor of 9.83 to original stop loss.

     

    I am not saying we would be able to exit the trades at the maximum potential profit level. But this trade at least illustrates the impressive potential reward to risk of a successful STAR trade.

     

    But no matter what you decide, hankt, wish you good trading and success.

     

    p.s. Don't know if you can still access the watch-list, hank, otherwise you can verify the trade I mentioned above. And to echo another member's post, you will also see many other winning trades on the active list, which were also active in September during the same time period of the losing trades you noticed. And active winning trades do dwarf the losing trades both in terms of pip count, and in terms of potential profit to loss factor.

     

    So although there may be faults with STAR (difficult to learn, time-consuming to find set-ups, slow updating of the watchlist and active list, and even confusion about the PTS near 100% accuracy versus non-PTS setups, etc.) but I do not think it is a scam, and I have found it profitable so far.

  5. And of course if you pretend to leave the page, he will even give you a $10 off discount!! He must be a saint, offering such life-changing method for only $37!!

     

    And, no, wait!! If you pretend to leave the page a second time, he will take another $10 off!!. Now you can get this bonanza for $27!!

     

    And of course, hurry, before supply last.

     

    Sometimes I jokingly tell my wife, I must be looking at trading in a wrong way. I am sure the real money must be in selling forex systems, and not trading it.

  6. Hi Hank,

     

    There was an earlier thread asking the same thing:

    http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/19444-Req-forex5days

     

    Although personally I think this guy is simply using back-fitting indicators to come out with a new winning product every 3 months or so, but I could be wrong.

     

    His previous products of 2012: forex7days (March 2012), forex6days (name is my own joke, but he did have a second product in June or July 2012, I simply forgot about its name), and now the latest is forex5days.

     

    At this rate, we will see forex4days before this year out.

  7. Please share it: http://www.mt4protrader.com/?hop=jakatuak

    ...And MT4 one click sytems

     

    Joe, usually when we post links here on the forum, we would like to "filter" out the affiliate link.

     

    I assume you probably got the link from some affiliate's email to you, and you have probably posted the full link here without realizing it includes the affiliate tag.

     

    What that means is, we usually take out the part "/?hop=XXXXXX" from the webpage address. Where XXXXX is the link to an affiliate, who will get paid a fee if someone purchase from that website through that link.

     

    For example, in your case, you can simply post

    http://www.mt4protrader.com

    , and it should give the same website.

     

    Otherwise, people may think you are the affiliate trying to earn affiliate fees by posting such links here.

     

    p.s. Also, for request, it will be more appropriate to post this thread at the "Trading Systems and Strategies Request" sub-forum.

  8. I watched the video and noticed a few things:

     

    (1) From 28 June to 30 July (approx 1 month) there were 3 buy and 3 sell trades. Or 6 trades total over 23 trading days, averaging 1 trade every 3.8 days.

     

    So if this is new, it will be a few days before anyone get a new signal, and even more days to tell if the new signal is profitable or not. So we can expect a few days to a few weeks before we start seeing any purchasers' reviews for this.

     

    (2) Without seeing the system, we do not know how he sets his stop loss. But I notice for his 13th July buy trade signal, the price actually dropped past the most recent swing low before heading upward. Since I would probably set my stop loss just beyond the most recent swing low, that would be a loss in my book.

     

    (3) And even if the 13th July trade is considered a winning trade, he only showed 6 winning trades. Although 6 winners are nice, 6 trades are too small a sample size to say this is a winning system.

     

    I am sure any one of us here at II can test enough indicators to find a stretch of time on any timeframe and any currency pairs to show only 6 consecutive winning trades. It is simple back-fitting.

     

    So I am not convinced by only 6 trades that his method is a holy grail. For a 6-trades-per-month type of system, I want to see at least a year of results to be convinced.

     

    Having said the above, would still be interested in what indicator is that at the bottom of the screen.

     

    Also, is "dremur" a play on word of "dreamer"? Like, only in your dream?

  9. The system itself does seem to have potential. In fact some of our own II members seem to be having good results with this.

     

    However, I cannot understand his results statement.

     

    He seems to calculate his winning pips this way for the results statement in his video:

     

    (a) if price reaches target 2, then count pips to target 2 as winning pips.

     

    (b) if price reaches only target 1, then count pips to target 1 as winning pips, EVEN IF price eventually retraces back to stop loss. It is counted as a win.

     

    But the problem is, in live trading, after price reaches target 1, you do not know if price will continue to target 2, or retrace back to stop loss.

     

    In live trading, the only way to reach target 2 profit, is to leave your trade open after target 1. But if price retraces now to your stop loss, then in live trading you have either a loss (or breakeven assuming you move your SL to BE after price reaches target 1). But his statement would still show a win for target 1 in this case.

     

    In this case, he would be counting winning pips when in live trading, you would have zero or a loss.

     

    Alternatively, if you follow his video suggestion to split your trade into 2 lots, one for target profit 1, and the other for TP2. Then his results are still overstated, because when trades reach TP2, the trade would have 1/2 of trade removed already at TP1. And only the second half of trade ever reaches TP2.

     

    Either way I can see it, his results are overstated.

     

    Perhaps the system is profitable. But I do not expect to achieve his results in live trading.

  10. Thanks to original sharer for sharing this. And thanks to Freddie for sharing the test results.

     

    Much as I would love to find a set-and-forget type method that actually works, I have not tried this yet, as I am always a bit cautious with set-and-forget type trading system.

     

    Over the years, too many set-and-forget type trading systems seem to work for a while (days, weeks, even months), but then eventually fail in the end.

     

    Some of the more famous ones were Forex Net Trap, B.O.S.S., and even Forex Morning Trade. They all worked very well when first introduced. FNT and FMT were even profitable for many months. But they all failed in the end, and by now they are all sitting in my computer archive electronic shelves gathering electronic dusts.

     

    But who knows, perhaps Uncle Karl can surprise us with an actual winner. Although with his past record, I am not holding my breath.

  11. I believe this is the same guy who first sold the forex7days (the site, forex7days.net is already taken down) method around March this year, at that time he claimed near zero losing trade over 2 months (January to Feb of this year). Needless to say, as soon as his method came out, it started encountering losses.

     

    Then 2 months or so later in around May or June, I saw another similar ad for another similar product to forex7days, with the same indicators, plus one or two extra indicators on the chart, and sold as another newest forex product. I notice even the bonuses are identical. I did not bother to even test this second one.

     

    Since there is now a third one out this year, I assume the second one also started seeing losses soon after going public. (Unfortunately, I cannot remember the name for his second 2012 product)

     

    Now a few months later again, his newest and latest product is the forex5days. (See how even the name is almost identical to his forex7days). I again notice almost identical bonuses. Although the main chart indicators this time seem different from the forex7days, I notice he once again use 40 trading days (2 months) video scroll to "prove" how good his method is.

     

    My guess is this: he never shows any live trades or live statements. So he could simply test any combination of indicators he can come up with, as long as over the most recent two months, it shows a good win ratio, then he can sell another newest trading method.

     

    It is simply a back-fitting of what-ever combination of indicators that work the best for the previous two months.

     

    As his first two products of this year have shown, back-fitting methods have a tendency of not working in the long run.

     

    If his method really work, why bother changing indicators and selling them as a new product every 2 to 3 months? I am betting he is simply another forex marketer. I could be wrong. Wish you good luck if anyone is planning to make his retirement income from this method.

     

    p.s. Maybe he is aspiring to be the next K@rl Ditzman?

  12. edit: it seems while I was writing this post, FloridaTrader already responded to some of stijjn's questions. And I ditto FloridaTrader's response that this is learnable. But will take some time.

     

     

    . . ., the biggest problem was that everyone uses some kind of code language that made me crazy,

    the same problem was for the watchlist, I figured out if I don't understand the system then I would just follow the watchlist, yes? But that also was in codes that I didn't understand (WHY don't use normal words ???) its liked you guys are getting high on the more difficult it is to understand the better.

    . . .

     

    @t dukeaugustus;

    Reading your post, it inspire me allot to try learning it again and maybe start to understand.

     

    You are all 3 clearly members of the system,

    maybe you can give me some tips on the first babysteps for learning the system.

    With what should I start?

     

    Hi stijjn. Although I do not consider myself any expert yet, but I would like to offer a few suggestions:

     

    (1) For the "codes" I assume you are referring to the abbreviations that are used in the forum and live chat. They can be confusing if you have not had a chance to read through the STAR forum yet. You can find definitions to most of the abbreviations used in a thread called "Conventions and Abbreviations". That thread is located in the regular members' section of the Supertraders forum > Member Forum > Conventions and Abbreviations. You should be able to locate it on the main Member Forum page, somewhere down to the middle of the page.

     

    (2) I would also encourage you, to have the patience and time to read through at least the main threads and posts in the supertrader forum. You would find many of your questions and confusions are already answered there.

     

    (3) I guess you are similar to me at the beginning, you also like to "lurk" in the background of their live chat for a long time, and worry about asking questions that may sound "silly" or "dumb". But the truth is, I think you will find that, once you start posting your questions there, you will find many members to be happy to try to answer them for you. For example, if you don't understand anything they were talking about, just ask them. I have never seen anyone ask any question there to receive anything but friendly, and sometimes even enthusiastic answers and help.

     

    Although it is true that sometimes different members may have different opinions about certain setups. That is simply there is a deep learning curve for knowing the setup. And usually the author Tom or someone with more experience will confirm or clarify any seeming discrepencies about understanding any setups. The good thing is, the setup requirements are very precise. The difficult thing is, those same requirements can be very time-consuming to go through and verify. This accounts for most, if not all, of the errors I see when members put up their setups on the watchlist. But it is part of the learning curve for new members. And we are improving all the time.

     

    No matter what, good luck.

  13. Sorry English is not my native language.

     

    I generally avoid conflict or arguments on the forum.

     

    But I must honestly say that STAR is one of the rare methods I have found profitable for me.

     

    However, I must also be honest to say that, it took me almost THREE YEARS to come to understand and now feel comfortable to trade STAR.

     

    And I will even agree that the ebook by itself is very difficult to read, and by itself is not the full method. (The full criteria are detailed and quantified within STAR forum posts);

     

    And also to first timer, the spaghetti moving average lines can be massively confusing.

     

    I am probably a slow learner, almost three years. So it is NOT an easy method to understand, and took much time and efforts on my end to understand how this works.

     

    For me initially, who feels uncomfortable in paying a monthly fee to join the premium section before I can understand and trade this, I have found a lot of learning and understanding can come from:

    - reading in the free section of the STAR forum (all the detailed criteria already there), and many of my questions were already asked by others before and answered there too; and

    - asking Tom directly for clarifying many questions (and he has ALWAYS taken much time to answer in details all my questions over the years);

     

    - I was also lucky that some friends here on Indo helped me in private to understand STAR, but I respect their wish to remain under the radar so will not mention them by name.

     

    For myself, I finally joined the premium section, because by that time I was convinced of STAR's validity in my own trading. So paying additionally for the premium content was a no brainer for me.

     

    The collaborative watchlist, as well as live chat where experienced members and the author try to answer questions live, made this worthwhile for me.

     

    Although I like to find my own set-ups, but following the watchlist has added many more setups to my own trading, which has benefited my bottom line.

     

    I think most of the disagreements from the posts in this thread are probably from the fact that different people learn and trade differently. While some can learn STAR in days, it took me YEARS to do the same thing. Also if one is too familiar with a certain style of trading (for example, some likes indicators, others like trend line bounces, still others like pure price action on naked chart, etc.) trading STAR does also require a major "paradigm-shift" in thinking about trade set-up. This method just simply does not match well with any other type of trading philosophy. It is unique in its own. Although it is based somewhat on Elliott Waves, it is also entirely different from standard EW trading, you do not count wave, as an example.

     

    In short, I like to encourage anyone who is already learning it, to give it time. And there are plenty of help available in the STAR forum if you are stuck. And for those who find this is just not a match for your trading style, then put it in your archive folder. Who knows, perhaps in a few years time, like me, you will come back and appreciate this more.

  14. Discontinuing the thread. Over 400 views and only one comment.

     

    Running the thread has forced me to pay close attention to the price action and I am happy with what I have found. I will now run it on demo ready to go live.

     

    Bye bye!

     

    Sorry to hear that you are discontinuing the thread, Freddie. For what is is worth, I did enjoy reading your thread.

     

    I did not make many comments, mainly because

     

    (1) I do not wish to "interrupt" too much your thread's sense of continuity of example trades from one day to the next. The thread as it stands is easy to read like a tutorial by trade examples. So I did not wish to add "noise" by simply posting for the sake of posting comments.

     

    (2) Also, I do not like to post if I do not either have something worthwhile to add, or do not have some questions specific to posts in the thread. And your explanation as well as chart examples are so clear (at least to me) that I did not have any specific questions I needed to ask.

     

    Anyway, no matter what, thank you again for your sharing spirit, I know it does take time and efforts to produce a thread like this. And I did enjoy reading this thread while it lasted.

     

    Cheers. Perhaps will see you in other threads or posts again.

  15. Sorry guys, I was wrong about the email address part.

     

    Although you do not need to give email address to download the indicator installer, you DO need to give an email address when the installer try to install the indicator into your MT4. They need to send an Activation Key to complete installation.

     

    In other words, another J@son F1elder marketing trick to grab your email address.

     

    I guess if you really want to install it, you can use throw-away email account to get the installation key. For myself, I do not like to give out any email address, so I did not install this myself.

  16. If you use, or like to use, pivot points in you trading, here is a freebie, and you don't even need to leave your email address.

     

    Download page:

    http://[email protected]/?p=1

     

    Short video instructions page:

    http://[email protected]/?page_id=2

     

    (remember to change "@" to "a")

     

    In general, I am not a fan of J@son F1elder (personally I think he is mostly a marketer/promoter), but since this indicator and videos are free, and with no string attached, so enjoy.

  17. Have you tried it?

     

    I almost forgot about this. I did try it years back. I remember it was slightly below break-even in the long run. If you catch a long term trend, then it shines. If market consolidates or ranges, you lose money. I remember putting the document to trash and forgotten about it since then.

     

    But that was a long time ago. Who knows, market changes all the time. May be it is better in today's market? Suggest anyone who wants to try it at least do some backtesting, or use demo, or very small risk lot size.

  18. Although not my type of trading system, here is a page for half price discount:

    http://[email protected]/vipdiscount.htm

    (remember to change "@" to "a")

     

    You can ignore the warning that the discount will be pulled down on the next day. It is just marketing trick. I saw that page almost a month ago, it was supposed to be pulled down the next day I saw it. But guess what, a month later today, the discount page is still there, with a new pull-down day (yes, tomorrow, LOL).

     

    Even with the discount, $500 is still not cheap, considering that I cannot find anything substantively positive on the internet about the author or his trading system. For someone who claims to have taught many students for many years, I thought there should be more students reviews or feedback available on the internet.

     

    I did find a bunch articles he wrote back in 2009 supposedly talking about forex trading, but in fact were disguised promotions to something called Forex Ambush 2.0.

     

    Here is a list of his old articles:

    http://www.articlesbase.com/authors/hans-monsma/56799

    If you randomly read any of his articles, you will see links to this page

    http://www.sitesunion.com/ambush.html

    which in itself is an affiliate page to send you further to the sales page of Forex Ambush 2.0.

     

    In case any one is wondering, Forex Ambush came out around 2009 claiming 100% accurate signal. It targeted 5 to 20 pips, but with NO Stop Loss. You can guess what happened later. It caused quite a buzz back then. But after a run of a few good months, it hit several losses, with many of their customers losing entire accounts due to margin calls.

     

    Although I cannot blame anyone wanting to make money from affiliate fees. I just do not have that much confidence in someone who claims to have been trading for decades, and teaching students for years, but only a few years back was pushing a forex signal that was a failure.

     

    I also notice that the second of his proof statement seems to have trades that do not follow in chronological order. Not proof enough that was a sign of tempering with the statement, but just strange to see trades opening date to jump out of order.

     

    Perhaps his current trading system does work, but I am not sure I want to risk $500 to find out.

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